Crypto World
Commodity, Crypto Pool Operator Faces CFTC Fraud Charges
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sued a North Carolina man, accusing him of operating a commodity pool featuring crypto that defrauded investors of more than $14 million.
The CFTC’s lawsuit, filed in federal court on Tuesday, alleged that Trevor Vernon and his company, Argent Capital Management, operated a commodity pool featuring equity index futures, options on equity index futures and crypto.
The agency alleged that from March 2022 to February 2026, Vernon solicited $14.8 million from at least 60 investors and falsely claimed he was a successful trader, even though his trading actually “resulted in consistent and catastrophic losses” for the pool’s investors.
The lawsuit is a rare crypto-related enforcement action from the CFTC, which is angling to oversee the crypto industry while facing questions from some lawmakers about whether it has the resources to police the complicated and rapidly growing sector.
The agency alleged that as part of the scheme, Vernon traded crypto, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), which the CFTC asserted were commodities.
CFTC alleges Vernon ran pool “akin to a Ponzi scheme”
The CFTC alleged in its complaint that Vernon made false statements to existing and potential investors, including in quarterly account updates and monthly performance emails.
The agency claimed Vernon’s trading of crypto, as well as futures and options on stock indices, resulted in losses of more than $8.6 million.
Related: CME Group sues CFTC over crypto perpetual futures
The CFTC said Vernon never disclosed the losses to investors and alleged he misappropriated $3 million to pay investors “in a manner akin to a Ponzi scheme” to hide his losses. He also allegedly misappropriated $136,000 for private air travel, according to the lawsuit.
The CFTC accused Argent Capital Management of failing to register with the agency as required by federal commodities law, and claimed Vernon made false statements to the regulator in January about the issues alleged in its complaint.
The CFTC charged Vernon with seven counts related to fraud, failure to register and making false statements.
It asked the court to permanently ban Vernon from registration and trading, along with disgorgement, penalties and restitution.
Features: From Bitcoin critics to blockchain believers: The 5 biggest crypto backflips
Crypto World
Rapid Retail Mood Swings Signal Caution as BTC Retreats Amid Iran Strikes
Crypto traders have “flipped their expectations several times” in just one month, reported analytics provider Santiment on Wednesday.
The crowd was heavily bearish for most of June, calling for lower prices as Bitcoin slipped to $58,000. However, they’ve flipped bullish now as BTC rebounded towards $64,000, said Santiment before adding:
“These fast mood swings show how reactive retail sentiment can be when price starts moving.”
Markets Move Opposite to Crowds
Crypto typically moves opposite to what the crowd is most loudly expecting, “because markets tend to punish crowded trades.” This can be seen in action today as markets have retreated 1.5% with Bitcoin falling below $63,000 on Wednesday morning in Asia.
“Optimism doesn’t mean the rally is over, but when traders quickly shift back to calling for higher prices, it’s a sign bulls may need a cool-off before the next cleaner leg up,” said Santiment.
TL;DR: Crowd turns bullish as Bitcoin & altcoins rebound
Metrics Used: Social Trends Query
Link to chart: https://t.co/3mqlUdE4ym
Crypto traders have flipped their expectations several times in just one month. In early June, the crowd was heavily calling for “lower”… pic.twitter.com/MTQuPGRqoc
— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) July 7, 2026
The market dip followed renewed strikes on Iran by the US following the attack on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
“US Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway,” stated Centcom.
CryptoQuant analyst ‘Darkfost’ said on Tuesday that the apparent demand for Bitcoin has stayed negative for almost the entire year.
“The dynamic remains unchanged and perfectly illustrates the current weakness in Bitcoin demand,” despite the recent rally, he said.
Currently, Bitcoin remains in a “risk-off regime,” said analyst Axel Adler Jr.
“Inter-exchange flow through Coinbase Advanced is still weak, and momentum is not yet showing a sustained reversal higher,” he added.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
The renewed attacks in the Middle East have doused the flames of the recent rally, with markets losing $50 billion over the past 12 hours.
Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $62,600 during Wednesday morning trading in Asia, down 2.3% from its intraday high of just over $64,000 late on Tuesday.
Ether has followed suit, falling from $1,800 to $1,750 at the time of writing, while most of the altcoins are back in the red again.
The post Rapid Retail Mood Swings Signal Caution as BTC Retreats Amid Iran Strikes appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Crypto World
Trump Administration Approves Rollout of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6
The Trump administration has approved a broad rollout of OpenAI’s advanced GPT-5.6 model. OpenAI has announced that the wider release will happen on Thursday, July 8, after additional testing and government meetings.
AI models have been under increased scrutiny of late, with Anthropic’s Fable 5 released and then recalled at the direction of the Trump administration.
A Staggered Rollout Reaches Its Next Stage
OpenAI agreed to a staggered GPT-5.6 release last month at the government’s request, limiting initial access to a small group of vetted partners. The company later confirmed that most users still lacked access even after its official unveiling in June.
The reported Commerce Department clearance would lift those restrictions and open the model to a wider audience by Thursday. The scope of the additional testing and the officials involved in the review have not been disclosed.
Approval Follows Warming Ties With Washington
The clearance arrives as OpenAI pursues closer ties with the administration. Chief executive Sam Altman has floated a 5% equity stake proposal for the US government.
Altman has shared the idea with senior administration officials since the start of Trump’s second term. Those officials reportedly include Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, per the Financial Times.
Trump has signaled openness to such arrangements.
“There are concepts where pieces could be given to the American public, where the American public essentially becomes a partner,” the President said.
The administration made a similar reversal last month. It lifted export controls on Anthropic models, under the Mythos umbrella, reflecting a broader pattern of shifting federal decisions on frontier AI access.
The post Trump Administration Approves Rollout of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
CFTC sues crypto pool operator over alleged $14M fraud
The CFTC has sued a North Carolina man and his company over an alleged commodity pool fraud tied to crypto and futures trading.
Summary
- CFTC says Argent Capital solicited $14.8 million while hiding losses from at least 60 investors.
- The complaint links Bitcoin, Ether, futures, options, false statements, registration failures, and alleged misused funds.
- The case lands as CFTC faces wider questions over crypto oversight, resources, and derivatives rules.
In a July 7 press release, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it filed a civil enforcement action against Trevor Vernon and Argent Capital Management LLC. The agency said the pool traded equity index futures, options on equity index futures, Bitcoin, Ether, and other crypto assets.
The complaint says Vernon and Argent Capital solicited more than $14 million from at least 60 participants from March 2022 to February 2026. The CFTC said Vernon told investors he was a successful trader and claimed the pool had strong gains.
Agency says losses were hidden
The agency said those claims did not match the trading record. In its complaint, the agency said Vernon’s trading produced “consistent and catastrophic losses” for pool participants.
The regulator said Vernon and Argent Capital sent monthly emails and quarterly updates that showed rising account balances from gains that did not exist. The agency said the pool lost more than $8.6 million through trading, while investors received false reports about performance.
The agency also alleged that Vernon misused pool money. It said about $3 million went to payments to existing participants in a way “akin to a Ponzi scheme.” The complaint also says Vernon used about $136,000 for private air travel.
CFTC seeks bans and penalties
The lawsuit includes seven counts tied to fraud, registration failures, and false statements to the regulator. The agency said Argent Capital Management failed to register as required under federal commodities law.
The agency also said Vernon made false statements during sworn testimony in January while the agency investigated the matter. The regulator asked the court for restitution, disgorgement, civil penalties, and permanent trading and registration bans.
The CFTC’s complaint treats Bitcoin and Ether as commodities. That position fits the agency’s long-running effort to assert authority over parts of the crypto market, especially where crypto appears in derivatives, pooled trading, or fraud cases.
The court has not ruled on the claims. The CFTC’s filing starts a civil case, and Vernon and Argent Capital will have a chance to answer the complaint in federal court.
Case lands during wider CFTC debate
The action comes as the agency faces broader attention over crypto oversight. CME Group moved to sue the CFTC over the agency’s approval of U.S. crypto perpetual futures, arguing the products should be treated as swaps.
The agency is also under pressure from lawmakers over prediction markets. As crypto.news reported, Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis asked the CFTC to review Polymarket advertising claims and questioned whether the regulator has enough authority and resources for consumer protection.
The Argent Capital case is different from those market-structure disputes. It centers on alleged investor fraud, false reporting, registration failures, and misuse of money. Still, it adds another crypto-linked matter to the CFTC’s docket at a time when the agency may receive broader power over digital commodities under proposed U.S. market rules.
As previously reported, crypto.news also covered the CFTC’s decision to scrap its no-deny settlement rule. That change gave defendants more room to dispute agency claims after settling enforcement cases.
Crypto World
Ctrl Wallet Winds Down as Crypto Project Shutdowns Mount in 2026
Ctrl Wallet will permanently shut down on August 3, 2026, disabling transfers, swaps, and in-app activity.
The company announced the closure on July 7 and pulled the app from major stores the same day. Anyone who has already installed it can keep every feature until August 2.
What the Ctrl Wallet Shutdown Means for Users
Ctrl says the wallet stays fully operational until August 2. Until that date, holders can continue normal use, including sending, receiving, and swapping tokens, as well as exporting their recovery phrase.
From August 3, the only remaining function is exporting a recovery phrase.
“We strongly recommend exporting your recovery phrase as soon as possible, as we cannot guarantee how long the app will remain accessible on your device,” the team said.
Ctrl recommends two paths before the deadline. Users can export their 12-word or 24-word recovery phrase, or move funds to another wallet or exchange.
The platform did not explain why it is shutting down. However, the decision comes after a June security issue that, according to the team, affected a small number of Cardano (ADA) wallets on the platform.
Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
Ctrl’s exit is not an isolated case. RootData counts 79 crypto projects that closed, entered bankruptcy, or went dark through 2026.
The tally spans wallets, DeFi protocols, NFT platforms, and more, pointing to pressure that spans the sector rather than a single corner of it.
What remains unclear is how long the app will stay usable after August 3. Ctrl said it cannot guarantee continued access.
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The post Ctrl Wallet Winds Down as Crypto Project Shutdowns Mount in 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Polymarket enables Bitcoin Lightning deposits powered by Spark
Polymarket has enabled instant self-custodial Bitcoin deposits through the Lightning Network, using payment infrastructure from Spark.
Summary
- Spark gives Polymarket faster Bitcoin funding while keeping deposits tied to users’ own wallet keys.
- Lightning deposits reduce confirmation delays that can matter when traders enter fast-moving live prediction markets.
- The upgrade arrives as Polymarket handles larger volumes while facing closer checks from global regulators.
The update gives users a faster way to move BTC into the prediction market platform.
Spark said users can now deposit Bitcoin into Polymarket with more speed and more privacy than the older on-chain method. The company said deposits that once required on-chain confirmation wait times can now settle in seconds.
The feature follows Polymarket’s earlier move to support standard on-chain Bitcoin deposits in October 2025. Under that model, users often had to wait for several Bitcoin confirmations before funds appeared in their account.
Spark handles Lightning deposits
Spark is a Bitcoin payments protocol built for fast transfers and stablecoin payments. In Polymarket’s new setup, Spark checks the Bitcoin transaction when it is broadcast instead of waiting for normal confirmation times.
Spark checks for double-spend risk, fee adequacy, and replace-by-fee signals before crediting a deposit. The protocol then credits the deposit in under a second and carries the confirmation risk.
Spark calls this model “zero-conf.” The system allows Polymarket to support Bitcoin deposits without running its own Lightning nodes or setting separate confirmation rules for users.
The deposit flow also remains self-custodial. This means each wallet links to the user’s own keys, while Spark manages the payment route in the background.
Faster deposits arrive as activity grows
The update comes as prediction markets continue to draw heavy activity. As previously reported by crypto.news, World Cup trading pushed Polymarket-linked contracts past about $5 billion, while broader prediction market volume reached $44.8 billion in June.
Faster deposits may help users who want to enter live markets without waiting for Bitcoin confirmations. On-chain delays can matter when prices change quickly during sports, politics, crypto, and macro events.
Spark said the feature can work with several apps and exchanges that support Lightning withdrawals. These include Cash App, Coinbase, Kraken, Binance, OKX, Wallet of Satoshi, Tether Wallet, and Cake Wallet.
That gives Bitcoin holders more ways to move funds into Polymarket without relying only on a slower on-chain route. It also adds another payment option for a platform that already uses crypto rails for market access.
Polymarket remains under review
The new deposit feature arrives while Polymarket faces closer regulatory checks in several markets. As previously reported, the CFTC opened a broad investigation into Polymarket’s business activity and social media operations.
Polymarket has also drawn attention outside the U.S. As crypto.news reported yesterday, South Korea delayed any enforcement decision while giving the platform a chance to respond to concerns over possible gambling-law violations.
The company is also facing legal pressure in New York. In a separate case, two users sued Polymarket after alleging the platform wrongly denied payouts on a Strategy Bitcoin market.
Crypto World
Major tokens under pressure as U.S. attacks Iran
Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market came under pressure Tuesday after the US and Iran exchanged aerial strikes, sending the dollar higher.
BTC, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, slipped to $62,657 in Asian trading hours, down nearly 1% since midnight UTC, according to CoinDesk data. Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), and solana (SOL) fell between 1% and 2.3%. WTI crude futures jumped more than 2% to $72.27, while the Dollar Index held steady above 101.00, maintaining Tuesday’s gains.
The U.S. said it launched “powerful strikes” against Iran following attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, including Qatari and Saudi tankers. In response, Iran said it targeted “85 US military installations” in retaliation for strikes on its Hormozgan and Mahshahr provinces.
The scale of the escalation appears to have pushed the two nations’ ceasefire to the brink of collapse.
The Iran war erupted in late February, pushing oil prices well above $100 per barrel and generating a massive inflationary shock worldwide. While prices have since crashed back below $60, inflation expectations among consumers have continued to rise, fueling fears of interest rate hikes across the world, including in the US.
Higher rates make it more difficult for traders to abandon yields from supposedly safe bonds in favor of higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Crypto World
Strike Rolls Out “Volatility-Proof” Bitcoin Loans as Bears Persist
Strike, the Bitcoin financial services firm led by Jack Mallers, has introduced a new “volatility-proof” Bitcoin-backed loan designed to reduce the risk of margin calls and forced liquidations during sharp market drops. The trade-off is cost and scheduling discipline: the program carries a higher interest rate, a shorter loan term, and an expectation that borrowers make payments on time.
In a Tuesday announcement, Mallers said the product was built in response to customer feedback on Strike’s earlier Bitcoin loan offering launched in May 2025—an initial rollout that coincided with a severe drawdown. During that period, Bitcoin fell 54% from peak to trough, and many borrowers were liquidated.
Key takeaways
- Strike’s new loans aim to remove margin calls and price-triggered liquidations, limiting forced selling during downturns.
- The mechanism requires borrowers to stay current; missed payments can still lead Strike to sell collateral.
- Terms are shorter than Strike’s standard product and the interest rate is higher—up to an APR range around 10.7% to 14.2% based on Strike’s disclosed structure.
- The maximum initial loan-to-value ratio is 45%, which lowers borrowing capacity relative to the collateral posted.
A product aimed at breaking the “volatility-to-liquidation” link
In his remarks, Mallers summarized the core design goal: “No margin calls. No price liquidations. No matter how far bitcoin falls, your bitcoin doesn’t move.” He emphasized that the protection comes with conditions—namely paying on time and accepting a higher cost and shorter term than Strike’s standard loans.
Strike’s pitch matters because the industry has spent years trying to broaden Bitcoin’s utility beyond holding and transfers. Yet adoption of crypto-backed lending has lagged, largely due to uncertainty around how quickly collateral can be liquidated when markets move. A June report from crypto lending platform Ledn—referenced in the announcement—found that 88% of surveyed crypto investors would consider crypto-backed loans, but only 14% actually use them, citing a “crypto collateral gap” driven by volatility and confidence issues.
Volatility has been a persistent challenge for Bitcoin loans. Mallers pointed out that Bitcoin has fallen by 30% or more in 10 of the past 12 years, and that drawdowns of 50% or more have occurred four times since 2014. The new loan structure attempts to address a key behavioral and structural concern: that borrowers can be forced to sell when prices drop, even if they would be able to manage debt payments under a different risk framework.
How Strike’s “volatility-proof” structure changes borrowing terms
According to Strike’s details, the volatility-proof loans have a maximum initial loan-to-value ratio of 45%. That means a borrower posting $100,000 in Bitcoin could borrow up to $45,000 under this framework. Strike also disclosed that the APR is meaningfully higher than for its standard Bitcoin loan product, with an additional charge intended to support extra hedging designed to protect the system.
Strike’s standard Bitcoin loans carry an annual percentage rate between 7.75% and 11.25%. The new product is described as 2.95 percentage points higher than the standard offering, putting the volatility-proof APR roughly in the 10.7% to 14.2% range. Mallers characterized the approach as an exchange: “If you’re OK with a slightly shorter term and a little bit higher of a fee, there is no price move that can liquidate you.”
The company also pointed to Bitcoin’s recent market backdrop to frame why the change was necessary. Over the past year, Bitcoin has dropped 54% from its all-time high of $126,080 in October to $58,190 on June 25, according to the figures cited in the announcement.
Other market participants highlighted the product’s potential benefit while still acknowledging the cost. Investor Fred Krueger, responding on X, said the loan model could address “one of Bitcoin’s biggest structural problems: forced selling during market crashes,” arguing that defaults would be tied more to borrowers’ ability to service debt rather than temporary price swings. Vibes Capital Management executive chairman Rob Topping also welcomed the liquidity angle for users who want near-term cash without liquidation risk, while calling the 14% APR expensive.
Payments still matter: the rules shift from price risk to default risk
Strike’s volatility-proof label is not absolute. The company’s approach redirects risk away from price-based liquidations and toward payment behavior. Mallers said that if a borrower misses a payment, they have 10 days to catch up or contact Strike to explain their financial situation.
If Strike does not hear from the borrower after that 10-day period, the company may begin liquidating the borrower’s Bitcoin collateral to cover the overdue amount. Mallers underscored this distinction by stating that the product is designed to be “volatility-proof,” not “liquidation-proof,” adding that if clients appear to be “doing a hit-and-run,” Strike may have to sell some collateral.
The loans are available in most U.S. states and can be taken out under both personal and business names. Strike’s disclosed minimums vary by state and by loan type, with personal loans offered from $10,000 and certain business loans available as low as $5,000. The company said the proceeds can be used for new borrowing, refinancing, or consolidating existing obligations.
Where this fits in a wider lending market
Strike is not alone in offering Bitcoin-backed loans; other participants mentioned alongside Strike include Binance, Coinbase, Nexo, and Xapo Bank. However, the central question for borrowers remains the same across providers: how to access liquidity without being forced to sell during sharp market declines.
By setting a lower maximum loan-to-value ratio (45%) and charging a higher APR to fund additional hedging, Strike is attempting to engineer a path where collateral value volatility does not automatically translate into liquidation. For investors and traders, this shift could be meaningful in managing cash-flow stress—especially during periods where paying down debt remains feasible, but the collateral drawdown would otherwise trigger margin calls.
Borrowers considering the new program should watch two things going forward: how consistently Strike enforces the payment schedule across cases, and whether the company’s higher APR and tighter loan framework materially improve outcomes relative to its first loan product during prolonged volatility. The effectiveness of a volatility-proof model ultimately depends on how well it balances hedging costs with real-world borrower repayment behavior.
Crypto World
SpaceX Price Predicted to Range Between $131 and $800. Where Will SPCX Land?
SpaceX’s price targets now span a massive range. Wall Street analysts set targets from $131 to $800 as the IPO quiet period ended.
Nineteen analysts published new ratings once the quiet period lifted for 23 underwriting banks behind SpaceX’s IPO. The moves coincided with SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index on Tuesday, July 7. The median target sits at around $250, a 56% jump from Monday’s closing price.
The High End of the Range
Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale set the Street-high target at $800. He compared SpaceX to railroads and the internet as foundational infrastructure.
Citi’s John Godyn rated the stock a buy at $200. He called it a step toward a longer-term $900 target tied to Starship.
Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu and J.P. Morgan’s Doug Anmuth issued buy-equivalent ratings at $255 and $225. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas set a $300 base case. His range spans a $600 bull case and a $75 bear case.
Fourteen of the 19 targets clustered between $200 and $250. That optimism follows heavy institutional demand. BlackRock placed a $5 billion order ahead of the company’s $2 trillion debut last month.
The Low End of the Range
MoffettNathanson’s Julie Zhu set the Street-low target at $131, the sole holdout with a neutral rating that implies 18% downside. The firm called SpaceX’s $30 trillion addressable market estimate “absurd.” It also questioned Musk’s plan to deploy 100 gigawatts of orbital compute by 2029.
“There is simply no credible financial model that can support what is at the time of this writing a roughly $2 trillion valuation. Our own certainly does not.”
Zhu’s team stopped short of a sell rating. The analysts argue investors are pricing SpaceX as an option on businesses that don’t exist yet. It flagged regulatory scrutiny of SpaceX’s launch dominance as the bigger long-term risk. That risk remains years away, the firm said.
The nearly $700 gap between the highest and lowest targets leaves SpaceX’s volatile stock at a crossroads. Starship’s next test this month could sway which camp proves right.
The post SpaceX Price Predicted to Range Between $131 and $800. Where Will SPCX Land? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
MiCA-Compliant Euro Stablecoin Market Hits $674M: Decta
The market capitalization of compliant euro stablecoins grew 128% in the year leading up to the end of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) transition period, according to payments infrastructure firm Decta.
Decta said in a Sunday report that the combined market cap of eight MiCA-compliant euro stablecoins rose to $673.9 million on June 28, 2026, from $295.6 million on June 30, 2025. Trading volume rose 43.1% to $67.3 million from $47 million. The number of MiCA-compliant euro stablecoins tracked in the report also rose to eight from five over the period.
Decta tracked eight euro stablecoins that were actively issuing tokens and had market capitalization and trading volume during the study period. By contrast, the European Securities and Markets Authority interim MiCA register lists a broader set, including tokens that may not meet Decta’s activity criteria.
The report found that euro-denominated stablecoins are growing under MiCA but from a small base in a market still dominated by dollar-backed tokens. CoinGecko data shows US dollar-pegged stablecoins at about $300 billion in market capitalization. The combined market capitalization of Decta’s eight actively traded, MiCA-compliant euro stablecoins was 0.22% of the dollar stablecoin market.
From July 1, firms offering crypto-asset services in the European Union generally needed MiCA authorization. Decta’s data sample ends days before the close of MiCA’s crypto-asset service provider (CASP) transition period.

Market capitalization of the top eight euro-pegged stablecoins. Source: Decta
Euro stablecoin growth amid MiCA competitiveness debate
The report adds to a debate among policymakers and industry groups over whether MiCA’s stricter stablecoin rules are helping the euro ecosystem grow or limiting its competitiveness against dollar-backed tokens.
On April 27, a Blockchain for Europe report argued that MiCA had made euro stablecoins safer but commercially weaker. The report said MiCA’s reserve requirements and ban on interest payments left euro tokens at a disadvantage.
Related: EU crypto rulebook faces enforcement challenge as MiCA transition ends
The debate intensified in May after a policy paper from Brussels-based think tank Bruegel called for easing liquidity requirements for stablecoin issuers and potentially granting them access to European Central Bank funding. The paper argued that looser rules could help the euro stablecoin market compete with dollar-backed tokens.
However, the European Central Bank (ECB) pushed back. On May 23, the ECB warned EU finance ministers that expanding issuance of euro stablecoins could weaken bank lending and complicate monetary policy. The ECB also dismissed concerns that stricter EU rules would accelerate digital dollarization.
Magazine: Bitcoin slides to $58K, XRP hits $1 but onchain data promising: Market Moves
Crypto World
Bitcoin NUPL Bottom Not Yet in Sight With BTC Due New Lows
Bitcoin (BTC) has further to fall for one of its “cleanest cycle clocks” to signal a bear-market bottom, new analysis says.
Key points:
- One of Bitcoin’s “cleanest cycle clocks” suggests that new macro lows are needed this bear market.
- The NUPL metric is still in positive territory, setting it apart from previous bear markets.
- Analysis expects history to repeat with a higher low on a long-term NUPL moving average.
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin NUPL contains “level to watch”
In research published on Monday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant flagged an incoming profitability floor for the BTC supply.
The onchain metric involved was Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which measures the portion of the supply being held at a higher or lower price versus that at which it last moved. Its score is currently 0.158, a level last seen in early 2023.
“Smoothed into its 30 and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), it becomes one of the cleanest cycle clocks on-chain,” contributor TheChessOnChain commented.
An accompanying chart shows the 100-day EMA of NUPL slowly trending toward cycle bottom levels below zero.
“Every time the 100-day EMA of NUPL fell below zero, Bitcoin was carving its cycle bottom: late 2011 (low near $2), January 2015 ($182), the 2018 bear ($3,206 in December 2018), and the 2022 FTX bottom ($15,792 in November 2022),” TheChessOnChain noted.

Bitcoin NUPL data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
At just above $60,000, BTC/USD corresponds to an NUPL 100-day EMA of 0.215, signalling plenty of room left to drop in order to match previous bear-market lows.
CryptoQuant acknowledged that NUPL has put in higher lows throughout Bitcoin’s history, meaning that even a trip below the zero line may not be essential.
“That leaves two paths,” it continued, describing the four extant zero-line crosses as a “pattern, not a law.”
“Either the 100-day EMA crosses zero as it did at every prior bottom, or this becomes the first cycle to bottom without it, which would fit the shallower-each-time trend.”
No time frame was given for when the next bottom could occur, with CryptoQuant specifying the zero line as the “level to watch in the coming weeks.”
Bear market reversal signals copy history
As Cointelegraph reported, multiple bear-market reversal signals have come from onchain sources in recent weeks, echoing 2022.
Related: $60.4K Becomes ‘most important area’: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Despite these now locking in, market participants broadly expect new macro lows to enter before bulls regain the upper hand.
Last week, fellow CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. highlighted other supply data presenting mixed signals over short and mid-term BTC price action. Supply in loss, Adler calculated, could still be two months off levels that traditionally correspond to the end of Bitcoin bear markets.
“Until then, it is more accurate to treat capitulation as a process rather than a completed fact,” he wrote.
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TL;DR: Crowd turns bullish as Bitcoin & altcoins rebound
Metrics Used: Social Trends Query
Link to chart:
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