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Crypto market wavers, Fed official predicts more rate cuts

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Stocks and crypto markets on edge as US inflation cools, Trump eyes steel tariff cuts

The crypto market wavered today, February 17, as traders watched several potential catalysts, including Federal Reserve statements and the happenings in the Middle East.

Summary

  • The crypto market wavered after Austan Goolsbee said that he supported more interest rate cuts.
  • He believes that more cuts will be necessary if inflation continues falling.
  • The statement came a day before the Fed published the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting.

Crypto market on edge after a dovish statement by Austan Goolsbee

Bitcoin (BTC) price was little changed at $67,000, while Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $1,980. The market capitalization of all coins dropped by 0.15% in the last 24 hours to over $2.34 trillion.

Similarly, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index was hovering at the extreme fear zone of 13, while the Altcoin Season Index was trading at 31.

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The crypto market wavered after Austin Goolsbee, the head of the Chicago Fed, noted that there was room for several interest rate cuts this year if inflation continues to fall toward the 2% target. He said

“I do think that if this proves to be transitory, and we can show that we’re on path back to 2% inflation, I still think there’s several more rate cuts that can happen in 2026, but we’ve got to see it.”

The statement came a few days after the Bureau of Labor Statistics published encouraging consumer inflation dropped to 2.4% in January from the previous 2.7%, while the core CPI remained unchanged at 2.5%. Inflation has been trending downward from 3%, and the downtrend may continue in the coming months.

The recent dot plot signaled that the Fed will deliver one interest rate cut this year. On the other hand, Polymarket traders anticipate that the bank will cut rates three times.

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The crypto market would benefit from more interest rate cuts, as we saw during the Covid pandemic, when Bitcoin and most altcoins jumped to record highs as central banks slashed rates.

Hedge funds are betting against the dollar

Goolsbee’s statement came as a report showed the hedge funds were increasingly bearish on the US dollar. The survey by Bank of America showed that the currency’s positioning among fund managers fell to the lowest level in over a decade. In theory, a weaker dollar benefits the crypto market because most coins are quoted in U.S. dollars.

Looking ahead, the next major catalyst for Bitcoin and other altcoins will come on Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its last monetary policy meeting. These minutes will provide more information about the last meeting and hints on what to expect in the next meetings.

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Crypto World

XRP Ledger Introduces Permissioned DEX, Boosting Institutional Access

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR

  • The Permissioned DEX amendment on the XRP Ledger will activate in 24 hours.
  • This upgrade introduces controlled environments for trading within the decentralized exchange.
  • The amendment allows regulated financial institutions to participate while adhering to compliance requirements.
  • XRP’s demand remains strong, with nearly $4.5 million flowing into XRP-focused products in the last 24 hours.
  • The Permissioned DEX amendment builds on the previous XLS-80, enhancing the platform’s functionality for permissioned domains.

The Permissioned DEX amendment is set to go live on the XRP Ledger within 24 hours, marking a key milestone for the platform. This upgrade will introduce controlled environments for trading within the XRP Ledger’s decentralized exchange (DEX). The development is expected to facilitate broader participation, especially from regulated financial institutions.

XRP Ledger’s Permissioned DEX Amendment Activation

The Permissioned DEX amendment, also known as XLS 81, is set to activate on the XRP Ledger tomorrow. This amendment will create controlled trading environments, allowing only authorized users to place and accept offers. By integrating permissioning directly into the DEX protocol, it is designed to offer a secure space for regulated entities to trade.

According to XRPScan, the countdown to activation stands at just 23 hours. This feature builds upon the previous XLS-80, which focuses on Permissioned Domains. As part of this upgrade, users within these domains will have the ability to trade freely but only within a pre-approved group.

XRP’s Continued Demand Despite Market Shifts

XRP remains in strong demand, even as the broader cryptocurrency market experiences fluctuations. Rayhaneh Sharif Askary, the head of product and research at Grayscale, spoke about the consistent interest in XRP at a recent community event. “Advisors are constantly asked by their clients about XRP,” said Sharif Askary, underlining its continued relevance.

In fact, XRP has become one of the most talked-about assets, trailing only behind Bitcoin in some circles. This increasing interest is reflected in the recent data compiled by SoSoValue, showing XRP funds receiving nearly $4.5 million in the last 24 hours. Despite a market drop, the demand for XRP shows no signs of slowing down.

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At the time of writing, XRP had fallen by 1.78% in the last 24 hours to $1.45. However, it had gained 3.59% over the past week. This indicates that, while it may face short-term volatility, XRP continues to attract attention from investors.

The introduction of the Permissioned DEX amendment is seen as a crucial step in XRP’s journey toward broader institutional adoption. By offering a controlled environment for trading, the XRP Ledger aims to cater to the needs of regulated financial institutions.

The integration of permissioning features within the DEX protocol allows these institutions to participate without violating compliance requirements. In the long term, this move could play a pivotal role in attracting more institutional investors to the XRP ecosystem.

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Crypto World

Bitwise And GraniteShares File Election Prediction ETFs

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Bitwise And GraniteShares File Election Prediction ETFs

Exchange-traded fund issuers Bitwise and GraniteShares have filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch funds tied to event contracts on the outcome of US elections.

Bitwise filed a prospectus on Tuesday for a new lineup of ETFs branded as PredictionShares, with six prediction market-style ETFs on NYSE Arca.

The first two funds will pay out if either a Democrat or a Republican wins the U.S. presidential election in November 2028. The next two will pay out if either Democrats or Republicans win the Senate in November 2026, and the final two if either party wins the House.

“The fund’s investment objective is to provide capital appreciation to investors in the event that a member of the Democratic Party is the winner of the US Presidential election taking place on November 7, 2028,” read the prospectus.

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Each fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in binary event contracts, or political prediction market derivatives traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges. These contracts settle at $1 if the referenced outcome occurs and $0 if it doesn’t. 

“In the event that a member of the Democratic Party is not the winner of the 2028 Presidential election, the fund will lose substantially all of its value,” it explained. 

Source: James Seyffart

Betting on a prediction market wrapped in an ETF 

In essence, Bitwise is offering separate ETFs for each race — one for each party — and investors can choose which one to buy into. 

The price of each fund’s shares on any given day reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome, fluctuating between $0 and $1 based on polling, news, and sentiment.

Related: Prediction markets are the new open-source spycraft

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ETF issuer GraniteShares also filed a prospectus on Tuesday offering six similar funds with the same structures based on US election outcomes. 

“The financialization and ETF-ization of everything continues,” commented Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.

Not the first prediction market-style ETF filings

“This is not the first filing of this kind, and I think it’s extremely unlikely that these will be the last,” added Seyffart, in reference to the Roundhill filing for similar funds on Feb. 14.

The Roundhill prospectus also offers six prediction market-style ETFs based on the outcomes of the presidential, Senate, and House elections. 

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