Crypto World
DOJ Seeks Dismissal in $722M BitClub Fraud Case, Report Says
The U.S. Department of Justice is reportedly moving toward dropping federal charges against Matthew Goettsche, the founder of BitClub Network, a purported Bitcoin mining operation accused of defrauding investors of $722 million between 2014 and 2019. The development, if finalized, would represent one of the more consequential reversals in recent U.S. crypto enforcement history.
According to a Bloomberg Law report, the DOJ’s deputy attorney general’s office directed the New Jersey attorney general’s office to dismiss the case against Goettsche with prejudice. Following that directive, Goettsche’s attorneys informed the court that the parties had reached an “agreement in principle” to resolve the pending charges, but needed additional time to finalize the terms.
Key takeaways
- DOJ action to dismiss the BitClub Network case with prejudice would mark a major enforcement rollback for a high-profile crypto fraud prosecution.
- Goettsche’s counsel says the parties reached an agreement in principle, signaling a likely procedural resolution, though terms are not yet final.
- The case reversal follows a broader DOJ policy push described in an April 2025 memo from Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche.
- Earlier in the same BitClub matter, multiple former associates—Silviu Balaci, Joseph Abel, and Gordon Beckstead—have already pleaded guilty.
A dismissal “with prejudice” under discussion
In a court filing surfaced via Bloomberg Law, Goettsche’s attorneys wrote to U.S. District Court Judge Claire Cecchi on Wednesday stating that the parties had reached an “agreement in principle” to resolve the pending charges. The letter adds that the parties “need time to finalize the terms,” suggesting that while a shift in posture has occurred, the outcome still depends on completing the procedural steps required by the court.
Bloomberg Law reported on Friday—citing two sources familiar with the matter—that DOJ leadership instructed New Jersey prosecutors to dismiss the case with prejudice. In legal terms, dismissal “with prejudice” typically prevents the government from refiling the same charges, which would effectively end the case against Goettsche in its current form.
Background on BitClub’s allegations
Goettsche was indicted in December 2019 and was scheduled for trial in October on charges including conspiracy to commit wire fraud and selling unregistered securities. Prosecutors characterized BitClub as a mining pool where investors could purchase shares and receive passive earnings.
According to the allegations described in reporting, BitClub purportedly falsified earnings values reported to investors and fabricated mining-related data to attract additional participation. The claim that investors were promised returns tied to mining activity is central to how the scheme was framed, because it linked the advertised profitability of mining to alleged misrepresentations.
The timing also matters for readers trying to understand the scope of potential impact. The accusations cover a multi-year window from 2014 to 2019, after which the case entered the federal court system and eventually resulted in an indictment and trial scheduling.
Why this case stands out in DOJ’s crypto approach
The reported reversal comes amid a broader shift in DOJ messaging about how prosecutors should approach digital assets—at least as described in internal guidance. In April 2025, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche issued a memo directing the DOJ to move away from what it characterized as “regulation by prosecution” against the digital asset industry, according to a DOJ-published document: https://www.justice.gov/dag/media/1395781/dl?inline.
That memo has been interpreted across the industry as a potential recalibration of how far enforcement actions should be used to draw lines on digital asset behavior. Earlier reporting from Cointelegraph also referenced this pivot in the context of Blanche’s views on the relationship between code and criminality, including coverage such as Acting AG Todd Blanche confirms ‘code is not a crime’ in DOJ pivot.
Still, the BitClub allegations—centered on investor deception and alleged wire fraud—sit in a familiar lane for U.S. prosecutors: fraud and securities-related theories rather than purely novel questions about whether a technology feature is “criminal.” That creates a tension worth watching. If the government is willing to step back from prosecuting Goettsche, investors and legal observers will likely focus on what DOJ believes the evidentiary or legal posture looks like under the newer policy framework.
The human dimension: prior pleas by co-defendants
One reason this potential dismissal drew attention is that the BitClub case already produced guilty pleas from multiple figures previously involved in the scheme. According to the coverage, three of Goettsche’s former colleagues—Silviu Balaci, Joseph Abel, and Gordon Beckstead—have pleaded guilty. Their earlier outcomes can complicate perceptions of how the government views the case overall, especially if Goettsche’s prosecution is curtailed while other participants have already resolved their matters.
It’s also notable that the broader enforcement environment for crypto remains active. Earlier coverage highlighted that DOJ continues to pursue criminals operating in digital asset fraud and theft. In April, a California man named Evan Tageman was sentenced to 70 months in prison for an alleged criminal enterprise that stole about $263 million worth of crypto from victims through social engineering scams and burglary, per Cointelegraph reporting such as this article. Separately, DOJ actions reported in April described the freezing of over $700 million in crypto tied to investment scammers targeting Americans, and in February, the seizure of nearly $580 million linked to a criminal scam group operating in Southeast Asia—reflected in Cointelegraph coverage including this report and this one.
Taken together, those examples suggest that while DOJ’s strategic posture may be shifting, enforcement against alleged fraud and theft is still proceeding through other cases. The question in the BitClub matter is therefore not whether DOJ will prosecute crypto-related wrongdoing, but whether it will continue this particular prosecution in light of updated internal guidance and the specifics of the case.
What to watch next
For now, the key development is procedural: Goettsche’s attorneys say an agreement in principle exists, but the terms are not yet finalized. Investors, attorneys, and crypto operators should watch for the court’s next filings to confirm whether the dismissal becomes official—and, if so, how DOJ explains its reasoning in a way that clarifies what the “regulation by prosecution” directive means when fraud allegations are on the table.
XRP spent the first half of 2026 defending the one level that matters, the $1 mark, while a wall of bullish fundamentals, ETF inflows, whale accumulation, and a finished lawsuit failed to move the price. Now a delayed act of Congress has become the single catalyst that could break the deadlock in either direction. This is the level, the tension between fundamentals and price, and the honest case on both sides for the month ahead.
Summary
- XRP remains trapped between $1 support and $1.20 resistance as bullish fundamentals struggle to lift the price.
- Progress on the CLARITY Act could unlock stronger institutional demand, while another delay may pressure the $1 floor.
- ETF inflows, whale accumulation, Fed policy, and broader crypto sentiment will shape XRP’s direction through July.
XRP (XRP) enters July 2026 trading near $1.14, and the number hides a standoff. For months, the token has done something that frustrates every holder watching the headlines: it has absorbed a steady stream of unambiguously bullish news, sustained ETF inflows, tripling whale accumulation, the long legal cloud finally lifted, and gone essentially nowhere, pinned in a range whose floor is the psychologically decisive $1.00 mark. The fundamentals say one thing, and the price says another, and the gap between them is the defining feature of XRP right now.
The catalyst that could finally resolve the standoff is not a product or a partnership but a piece of legislation. The market-structure bill that would settle how digital assets like XRP are classified in the United States, and with it the path to spot ETF conversions and deeper institutional access, has slipped from its expected timeline toward late July or August, and its progress or delay has become the swing factor traders are watching above all else. XRP sits, in other words, between a well-defended floor and a legislative catalyst, with fundamentals loaded on one side and a stubborn chart on the other, waiting for something to break the tension.
This prediction maps that standoff the way a trader would: the price levels that define the range, the strange disconnect between XRP’s strong fundamentals and its flat price, the bullish case built on flows and legislation, the bearish case built on the chart and the broader market, the analyst and prediction-market targets worth knowing, and the honest bottom line on a month that could stay boring or break hard. None of it is investment advice, and XRP’s history of violent moves means every level here can be overrun by a single headline.
The levels that matter
The map begins and ends with $1.00, because no level on XRP’s chart carries more weight. The token trades near $1.14, and the entire near-term structure organizes around the $1.00 to $1.06 support band, where a large concentration of XRP has accumulated and where buyers have repeatedly defended the line. Holding that band is the whole bullish premise; losing it changes the picture entirely.
On the downside, the immediate support sits around $1.08 to $1.10, the near shelf beneath the current price, and below it the decisive $1.00 to $1.06 zone, the floor whose defense has defined the range for months. A clean break below $1.00 would be more than technical; it would puncture the psychological line the entire holder base watches, and would open a path toward the $0.90 area and, if selling accelerated, the low $0.80s that mark the range’s worst case. Because so much rests on the round number, the reaction at $1.00 is the single most important thing to watch on any decline.
On the upside, the first resistance is the $1.18 to $1.20 area, the ceiling that has repeatedly capped rallies and that prediction markets treat as the key line for the month. Above it, clearing the low $1.20s would signal the range breaking upward, with the next meaningful hurdles near $1.30 and then the $1.50 to $1.65 zone that would mark a genuine trend change after months of grinding. The structure, in short, is a coiled range: a heavily defended floor at $1.00, a stubborn ceiling near $1.20, and a token compressed between them waiting for a catalyst, with the legislative calendar the most likely source of one.
The disconnect: strong fundamentals, flat price
The most important thing to understand about XRP right now is why it is not higher, because the bullish fundamentals are real and the flat price is the puzzle. Consider what has accumulated on the positive side of the ledger. Spot XRP ETFs have drawn sustained inflows over a multi-week stretch, real institutional money entering through the creation-and-redemption machinery that turns inflows into spot buying.
Whale accumulation has intensified, with large-wallet activity and exchange outflows rising sharply as big holders move coins into storage, the same accumulation-into-weakness pattern visible across the majors, the tradable float on exchanges falling toward multi-year lows. The legal uncertainty that shadowed XRP for years has resolved. And Ripple has continued stacking institutional wins across payments and custody. By the usual logic, this combination should have driven a substantial move, and it has not.
The explanation is partly that XRP does not trade in isolation. It remains correlated with the broader crypto market, and that market spent the first half of 2026 in a significant drawdown driven by the Federal Reserve and risk-off flows, the same macro pressure that pulled Bitcoin from the $90,000s toward $60,000.
In that environment, XRP’s token-specific tailwinds were fighting a market-wide headwind, and the result was a standoff: the bullish flows defended the floor while the bearish macro capped the ceiling, producing exactly the compressed range the chart shows. It is also partly that the market is waiting for the one catalyst that converts XRP’s fundamental progress into a structural demand shift, the legislative clarity that would unlock the next wave of institutional access, and until that arrives, the accumulated fundamentals sit as stored potential rather than realized price. The disconnect, in other words, is not evidence the bull case is wrong; it is evidence the bull case is waiting for a trigger the calendar has delayed.
The bullish case: flows, float, and the CLARITY catalyst
The case for an upside break rests on three reinforcing pillars. The first is the flow-and-float dynamic. Sustained ETF inflows represent real buying, and they are meeting a shrinking available supply as whales pull coins off exchanges into storage, a classic setup where steady demand meets contracting float and price becomes increasingly sensitive to any demand shock. If the accumulation continues and the float keeps thinning, the conditions for a sharp move higher build quietly beneath the flat price, needing only a catalyst to ignite.
The second pillar is that catalyst: the market-structure legislation. If the bill advances on its revised timeline, it would settle XRP’s regulatory classification in the United States and clear the path for spot ETF conversions and the deeper institutional participation that a defined legal status unlocks, the classification fight whose stakes reach across the entire market.
Because so much of XRP’s institutional demand is gated behind that clarity, its arrival is the specific event that could convert the stored fundamental potential into realized price, and the market’s attention to the legislative calendar reflects exactly that.
The third pillar is seasonal and technical: July has historically been one of XRP’s stronger months, and a token compressed against a defended floor with thinning float is structurally primed for an upside move if any catalyst breaks the range. Combine continued flows, a legislative green light, and favorable seasonality, and the bullish path toward the $1.20 ceiling and beyond becomes credible.
What the legislation would actually change
Because the entire bull case pivots on the market-structure bill, it is worth being precise about what its passage would and would not do, since the market’s fixation on it can blur into vagueness. The bill’s core function is classification: it would define whether a digital asset like XRP is treated as a commodity or a security under United States law, and assign clear jurisdiction between regulators accordingly. That sounds technical, and its consequences are concrete.
A definitive commodity-style classification would remove the regulatory overhang that has kept many institutions on the sidelines, clear the path for spot ETF products and their conversions to proceed without legal ambiguity, and let banks, asset managers, and payment institutions engage with XRP under rules they can actually follow instead of guessing at.
The reason this matters so much for XRP specifically is that XRP’s investment thesis is unusually institutional. Its core use case runs through payments, cross-border settlement, and the regulated financial institutions Ripple has spent a decade courting, which means XRP’s demand is gated behind regulatory clarity to a degree that more retail-driven assets are not.
A bank cannot build on an asset whose legal status is undefined, and much of the accumulated fundamental progress, the custody deals, the payment integrations, the institutional partnerships, converts into actual token demand only once the classification question is settled.
This is why the legislation functions as the swing factor: it is not just another headline but the specific key that unlocks the demand the other fundamentals have been building toward. It is also why a delay hurts more than it would for most tokens, because the stored potential cannot be realized until the gate opens, and every slip in the timeline extends the standoff the chart reflects.
Two caveats keep the analysis honest. First, legislative outcomes are binary and uncertain: the bill could advance, stall, or pass in a weakened form, and the market’s apparent assumption that clarity eventually arrives is a bet, not a certainty.
Second, even favorable passage would not produce instant demand; institutional adoption moves on quarterly timelines, through risk committees and compliance reviews, so the price effect of clarity would likely build over months instead of spiking on the announcement, the same slow procedural cadence that governs every institution’s entry into the asset.
The catalyst is real, in other words, but its payoff is a curve, not a switch, which matters for anyone expecting a single legislative headline to resolve the standoff overnight.
The fundamentals beneath the token
It is worth grounding the bull case in the specific fundamental progress that has accumulated, because the disconnect between that progress and the flat price is the month’s central puzzle. On the institutional side, Ripple has continued building the payments and custody business that gives XRP its distinctive use case, adding banking relationships and settlement integrations that deepen the token’s role in cross-border flows.
On the product side, the regulated stablecoin in Ripple’s ecosystem has grown into a meaningful settlement instrument, and the broader infrastructure around XRP, custody, tokenization, and institutional rails has matured steadily. On the market-structure side, the arrival of spot ETFs gave regulated capital a compliant path into XRP for the first time, and their sustained inflows are the clearest evidence that the demand is real.
The bearish counter to all of this is not that the fundamentals are fake but that they are already priced, or that they matter less than the market believes for a token whose price is ultimately set by supply, demand, and macro sentiment like any other.
A skeptic notes that XRP has a large supply, that some of the accumulated demand may be offset by steady selling from long-term holders and scheduled releases, and that fundamental progress has repeatedly failed to translate into price, which at some point becomes evidence about the relationship itself, not a temporary lag.
Both readings are live, and the honest synthesis is that XRP’s fundamentals have built a loaded setup whose realization depends on a catalyst and a cooperative macro, neither of which the token controls, which is exactly why the price sits where it does: potential energy waiting for a trigger, in a market not yet ready to price it.
The bearish case: the chart and the market
The case for continued weakness, or a downside break, is equally grounded. The first and simplest bearish point is that the range has held for months and the burden of proof is on the bulls: XRP has repeatedly failed to clear the $1.18 to $1.20 ceiling, and a token that cannot break resistance despite a wall of good news is a token whose buyers are exhausted at those levels, which often precedes a move down rather than up.
The disconnect between fundamentals and price cuts both ways, and the bearish reading is that if this much good news cannot lift the price, the selling pressure, much of it from the same steady supply the market must absorb, is stronger than the bulls admit.
The second bearish point is the macro and the legislative risk itself. XRP’s correlation with the broader market means a weak crypto tape, driven by a hawkish Federal Reserve at its late-July meeting or renewed risk-off flows, would pressure XRP regardless of its own fundamentals, and the same drawdown that capped the first half could extend into the summer.
The legislative catalyst is also a double-edged sword: a further delay, a watering-down of the bill, or a disappointing outcome would remove the very trigger the bull case depends on, and a market that has priced in eventual clarity could sell the disappointment, breaking the $1.00 floor and opening the path toward $0.90 and the low $0.80s. The bearish scenario, in short, is that the range resolves downward, either because the macro drags XRP with the market or because the awaited catalyst slips again and disappoints a market tired of waiting.
Three scenarios for July
Pulling the forces together produces three coherent paths for the month, organized around the two levels and the one catalyst.
The base case is the range holding. If the legislation stays in limbo and the macro neither rescues nor crushes risk assets, XRP most likely continues to grind between the $1.00 to $1.06 floor and the $1.18 to $1.20 ceiling, defending the round number on dips and stalling at resistance on rallies, exactly the compression that has defined recent months. This is the highest-probability path absent a catalyst, and it resolves only when the legislation or the macro forces a break.
The bullish scenario needs the catalyst. Advancement of the market-structure bill on its revised timeline, ideally alongside a stable-to-positive crypto tape and continued ETF inflows, could break XRP above the $1.20 ceiling, turn the thinning float into a demand-shock accelerant, and open the path toward $1.30 and the $1.50 to $1.65 trend-change zone. Favorable July seasonality adds a tailwind. This is the path the accumulated fundamentals have been building toward, and it activates on a legislative green light.
The bearish scenario breaks the floor. A hawkish Federal Reserve dragging the whole market down, a renewed risk-off wave, or, most pointedly, another legislative delay or a disappointing outcome could puncture the $1.00 line, trigger the psychological break the entire holder base watches, and open the path toward $0.90 and the low $0.80s. The cruelest version is the catalyst itself disappointing, since a market that has waited months for clarity could sell the letdown hard.
The targets on the table
The forecasts around XRP span an unusually wide range, reflecting the genuine uncertainty of a token waiting on legislation. Prediction-market data leans cautious for the short term, with traders assigning strong odds, around 70%, to XRP closing above $1.20 on the relevant horizon, meaningful odds of a close below $1.00, and only a small probability of a move to $2 or above in the near window, a spread that captures the market’s sense of a range more likely to hold than to break dramatically either way.
On the analyst side, one major bank cut its XRP forecast sharply, from $8 to $2.80, framing the reduction as a return to realism rather than a loss of faith, while maintaining a substantially higher longer-dated target, and the range of published targets runs from sub-$1 bearish cases through low-single-digit base cases to the double-digit forecasts that depend on full institutional adoption playing out.
The spread from a sub-$1 downside to double-digit bull cases is the honest picture, and it maps directly onto the legislative binary: the bullish targets largely assume the market-structure clarity arrives and unlocks institutional demand, while the bearish ones assume continued delay and macro pressure.
For July specifically, the levels matter more than the price targets: the realistic range centers on the $1.00 floor and the $1.20 ceiling, with a break of either level the signal that the standoff has resolved, and the far targets in both directions activating only if the range genuinely breaks.
What to watch as the month unfolds
For a reader tracking XRP through July, the signals worth monitoring are specific and mostly public. The legislative calendar sits at the top: any concrete movement on the market-structure bill, a committee vote, a floor schedule, a revised timeline, is the highest-impact news the token can receive, and its absence is itself information, since continued silence extends the standoff.
The $1.00 line is the second signal, and its behavior on any decline, whether buyers defend it as they have for months or whether it finally gives way, will tell more about the token’s near-term direction than any headline. The $1.20 ceiling is the mirror: a decisive close above it on volume would signal the range breaking upward before most forecasts caught up.
Beneath the levels, three flow-and-context series carry the real story. ETF flows are the clearest demand gauge, and a sustained acceleration or reversal there would move the odds materially. Exchange-reserve and whale-wallet data show whether the float keeps thinning, the quiet structural setup beneath the flat price.
And the broader crypto tape, driven by the same Federal Reserve meeting that dominates the Bitcoin outlook, is the macro backdrop that can override XRP’s own fundamentals in either direction. A reader who watches the legislative calendar, the two levels, and those three series has the full dashboard, and is positioned to interpret the month as it happens instead of reacting to it after the fact. XRP has spent months as a coiled spring; the value of the dashboard is that it shows, in real time, which way the spring is finally releasing.
The honest bottom line
XRP’s July 2026 is a coiled spring waiting for a trigger, and the trigger is on a calendar the market does not control. The token enters the month with genuinely bullish fundamentals, sustained ETF inflows, intensifying whale accumulation, thinning float, and resolved legal risk, all of which have failed to lift it out of a range because a market-wide drawdown has capped it and because the one catalyst that would convert fundamentals into price, legislative clarity, keeps slipping. The result is a compressed range between a heavily defended $1.00 floor and a stubborn $1.20 ceiling, most likely holding until either the legislation advances or the macro forces a break.
The single most useful thing to watch is the legislative calendar, because it is the swing factor that dwarfs the others: advancement toward the revised late-July or August timeline is the specific event that could ignite the accumulated fundamentals, while another delay or a disappointing outcome is the specific risk that could break the floor.
Beneath that, the $1.00 line is the number that matters; its defense the bull case intact and its failure the bear case realized. XRP has spent months proving that good news alone will not move it; July’s question is whether the one piece of news it is actually waiting for finally arrives, and honestly, the calendar, not any forecast, will answer it.
A closing word on the disconnect that runs through this entire outlook, because it is the most important thing for a holder to internalize. It can be maddening to watch a token absorb clearly good news and refuse to move, and the temptation is to conclude either that the news is meaningless or that the price is broken. Neither is quite right. What XRP is demonstrating is the difference between fundamental progress and the specific trigger that prices it, and for an asset whose demand is gated behind regulation, that trigger is legislative, binary, and outside anyone’s control.
The accumulated fundamentals are not wasted; they are stored, and stored potential is exactly what produces the sharp moves that follow long compressions, in either direction. The month ahead is less a question of whether XRP’s fundamentals are good, they are, than of whether the one catalyst they are waiting for finally arrives, and the discipline the situation demands is the patience to watch the calendar and the levels, not the noise, and to let the range’s eventual break, whenever and whichever way it comes, be the signal that the waiting is over.
XRP has been here before, coiled and waiting, and its history is one of long dormancy punctuated by moves that arrive without warning and travel far before anyone adjusts. That history counsels neither confidence nor despair, only readiness: the setup is loaded, the trigger is identified, and the timing belongs to a calendar in Washington, not a chart in a trading app.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and you can lose your entire investment. Price levels, forecasts, and the status and timing of pending legislation reflect information current as of July 9, 2026, and are subject to change; verify current conditions before making any decision. Always do your own research.
Meta (Nasdaq:META) executives and directors have unloaded roughly $130 million of company stock over the past six months. Across the same half year, they have bought exactly zero shares.
That selling might have been more palatable if they had, as executives and directors, helped the stock price go up over that time period. They did not.
META, trading on the Nasdaq, is worth less today than it was six months ago.
Worse, their stock sales clustered near the higher range of 2026, months before an AI spending spree knocked the stock down. Since the start of the year, the company has lost $60 billion in market capitalization.
Read more: YouTuber finds only 900 daily users in Horizon Worlds — Meta’s $36B metaverse
The heaviest seller was Chief Financial Officer Susan Li. Her Form 4 disclosures show about $95 million in sales.
Chief Operating Officer Javier Olivan also sold more than $22 million in smaller lots. Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth accounted for nearly $10 million more.
Directors Robert Kimmitt and Peggy Alford, plus Chief Legal Officer C.J. Mahoney, contributed to the selling pressure. Conspicuously absent was anyone buying on the open market.
Meta executives and directors filed 86 Form 4s with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) since January, and those documents carry more than 300 individual transaction lines. Transactions include option exercises, tax-withholding events, and stock awards, which are routine disclosures about executive compensation. Unfortunately, more than half of the transactions relate to open-market sales.
Meta reported Q1 results on April 29 and, on paper, knocked it out of the park. Revenue rose 33% to $56.3 billion. Earnings were $10.44 per share, but that figure was inflated by a one-time tax benefit.
Stripped of that, adjusted earnings were far lower at $7.31 per share.
Investors saw a company burning cash on AI faster than it could generate profit. Shares dropped more than 8% the day after earnings, their worst single session of the year.
Capital expenditures (CapEx) on AI, like CapEx on Meta’s deca-billion dollar metaverse initiative that went nowhere, may become a big problem.
Meta raised its 2026 CapEx guidance to as much as $145 billion, up from a prior ceiling of $135 billion. If it spends that, it will double the $72 billion it spent in 2025.
Li attributed the raise to AI-related shortages: “Higher component pricing this year and, to a lesser extent, additional data center costs to support future year capacity.”
Down 20% since August 15
Meta has fallen from an August 2025 peak of $796 to under $632 at yesterday’s close, a decline of 20%.
The stock bottomed near $520 in late March. Susan Li’s biggest sales landed in February above $630 — weeks before that slide began.
Insider selling, on its own, is not enough evidence to forecast the price of any particular stock. Executives sell to support their families, housing, taxes, diversification, or a variety of pre-planned purposes. Most sales are scheduled under plans that strip out discretion regarding timing.
Still, insiders sold at Meta, and none of them bought. As Peter Lynch taught the world, “Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise.”
Meta’s insiders in six months had over 300 transaction disclosures to place one bullish bet with their own money. Over that stretch they took roughly $130 million off the table and put nothing back on.
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Pi Network entered July 2026 at a fresh all-time low near $0.10, its most oversold reading since launch, facing a supply-and-demand collision the whole market is watching. On the supply side, 103.7 million tokens unlock this month. On the demand side, a set of Pi2Day product launches promises to create real utility for the first time. This is the levels, the collision at the center of the forecast, and the honest case on both sides for a token at its lowest ebb.
Summary
- Pi Network enters July near $0.10 as 103.7 million token unlocks threaten to increase selling pressure.
- Three Pi2Day products could create real token demand, but their impact depends on measurable user and developer adoption.
- Holding $0.10 support keeps the recovery case alive, while reclaiming $0.12 could trigger a broader rebound.
Pi Network (PI) enters July 2026 at the weakest point in its short public history, trading near $0.10 to $0.114 after setting a fresh all-time low, with momentum indicators showing the deepest oversold reading since the token began trading.
The price has fallen through support levels that held repeatedly in prior months, strung together a multi-day losing streak, and now tests the psychologically critical $0.10 line, below which lies uncharted territory. For a project that launched with enormous community expectations, the chart is a sobering picture, and the month ahead is defined by a single collision.
That collision is supply against demand, stated almost too cleanly. On the supply side, roughly 103.7 million PI tokens unlock in July, an increase of some 27 million over the prior month, adding fresh sellable supply to a market already struggling to find buyers, the same supply-versus-demand pressure that dragged the broader altcoin market through the first half.
On the demand side, the project has timed a set of product launches around its annual Pi2Day event, including a verification tool with a fee-in-PI model, a hosting product, and a sign-in service, each intended to create genuine token utility and, with it, genuine demand for the first time. The entire July forecast reduces to which side of that collision wins: whether the new products can manufacture demand fast enough to absorb the unlock supply, or whether the supply overwhelms the demand and pushes an already record-low token lower.
This prediction maps the collision the way a trader would: the price levels that matter now that the token is in uncharted low territory, the bearish case built on the unlock calendar and the broken trend, the bullish case built on extreme oversold conditions and the new utility, the analyst target ranges worth knowing, and the honest bottom line on a token at its lowest ebb.
None of it is investment advice; Pi’s volatility and its unusual mining-and-distribution history make it especially unpredictable, and readers should treat every number here as a scenario rather than a promise.
The levels that matter
With the token at fresh lows, the level map is unusually stark, because much of the price history that would normally provide reference points sits above the current price, leaving fewer prior floors below. Pi trades near $0.10 to $0.114, beneath the moving averages that now slope down and cap rallies, and the structure is decisively bearish on the trend even as it stretches to an oversold extreme.
On the downside, the defining level is the $0.10 psychological line, a round number the token is actively testing and whose failure would push Pi into territory it has never traded in, where the absence of prior support makes the next floor hard to define and a swift move lower more possible.
Just beneath the current price, the $0.110 area and the recently broken support that had held around $0.12 now act as the immediate reference points, with $0.12 having flipped from support to resistance after the breakdown. Losing $0.10 decisively is the bearish trigger that opens the widest downside, precisely because so little prior structure lies below it.
On the upside, reclaiming the broken $0.12 support is the bulls’ first task, and turning it back from resistance into support would be the first sign the breakdown is being repaired. Above that, the levels near $0.1228, $0.1344, and $0.1496 mark the resistance steps a recovery would have to climb, each corresponding to prior consolidation zones, and clearing them in sequence would signal the oversold bounce maturing into something more durable.
The structure, in short, is a token in a confirmed downtrend at an oversold extreme, testing a psychological floor with thin support beneath it and a staircase of resistance above, where the direction of the next significant move depends heavily on whether the month’s demand catalysts can arrest the decline.
The bearish case: the unlock calendar and the broken trend
The case for continued weakness starts with the supply calendar, because it is the most concrete force acting on the token this month. Roughly 103.7 million PI unlock in July, up about 27 million from the prior month, and every unlocked token is potential new supply entering a market that has struggled to absorb it.
Token unlocks are a scheduled, readable form of selling pressure, and when the demand side is weak, as a record-low price suggests it currently is, fresh unlock supply tends to push price down as newly liquid tokens meet insufficient buying. For a token already at all-time lows, an increase in the monthly unlock is a direct headwind, and it is the single most important bearish fact of the month.
The second bearish force is the broken trend itself. Pi has fallen through supports that held repeatedly, and a token making fresh lows beneath falling moving averages is, by definition, in a downtrend that has not yet shown a bottom, with each broken support becoming resistance on any bounce.
Sentiment has followed price down; the community enthusiasm that drove earlier interest has faded into fatigue, and the demand indicators that matter, trading activity and the appetite to hold rather than sell, have thinned. A token in this posture is vulnerable to the reflexive dynamic where falling prices beget more selling as disappointed holders exit, and the record-low price is itself a signal that this dynamic has been in control. If the July unlock supply meets this weak demand backdrop without the new products generating meaningful offsetting buying, the bearish path points toward a break of $0.10 and a move into the undefined territory below it.
Understanding the unlock: why 103.7 million matters
Because the unlock number anchors the bearish case, it is worth understanding what it represents and why the monthly figure moves, since the mechanics are specific to Pi’s unusual design. Pi’s supply was distributed over years through its mobile mining phase, during which participants accumulated tokens that remained locked, subject to release schedules tied to identity verification, holding commitments, and the network’s migration to its open mainnet. Each month, a tranche of these previously locked tokens becomes transferable, converting balances that existed but could not be sold into supply that can, and July’s tranche is roughly 103.7 million, up about 27 million from the prior month.
The increase is the part that matters for price. A larger monthly unlock means more new sellable supply arriving into the market than the month before, and unless demand grows to match, the additional supply weighs on price through simple arithmetic: more tokens available to sell, the same or less buying to absorb them.
For a token already at all-time lows, where the price itself signals that existing demand is struggling to absorb existing supply, an uptick in the unlock is a direct and quantifiable headwind. This is why the unlock calendar is the single most-watched supply metric for Pi, and why the July figure features in nearly every forecast: it is the one large, scheduled, knowable force acting against the price, and its size this month is larger than last.
The nuance the bears sometimes skip is that not all unlocked tokens sell. Unlocked supply is potential selling pressure, not guaranteed selling, and whether it actually hits the market depends on holder behavior: participants who believe in the project may hold their newly liquid tokens instead of dumping them, particularly if the new products give them a reason to use their tokens instead of selling.
This is precisely where the supply and demand sides of the collision meet, because the same products that aim to create buying demand could also reduce selling by giving holders a use for their tokens, which is why the month’s outcome is not a mechanical certainty but a genuine contest between a known supply increase and an uncertain demand response.
The pivot beneath the price: distribution to utility
The deepest way to read Pi’s July is as a test of the project’s central transition, because the token’s entire situation reflects a pivot that every large community-distributed project eventually faces. Pi spent its formative years on distribution: acquiring users through mobile mining, building one of the largest claimed user bases in crypto, tens of millions of participants, and spreading tokens widely through that process. That phase created supply and community but not, by design, much in the way of token utility, and the current price weakness is in large part the market repricing a token whose distribution vastly outran its usefulness.
The Pi2Day product launches represent the attempt to complete the other half of the arc: converting a distribution network into a utility network, where the token is used and demanded, not merely held and eventually sold. The verification product’s fee-in-PI model is the clearest expression of the strategy, because a service that requires spending PI creates a demand for PI that exists independent of speculation, the kind of structural, recurring buying that could, at sufficient scale, offset the unlock supply permanently instead of temporarily. The hosting and sign-in products extend the same logic into developer and application use cases. Whether this pivot succeeds is the question that dwarfs any single month’s price action, and July is significant precisely because it is the first real test of the strategy at the moment the token most needs it to work.
The honest assessment is that pivots like this are hard and most are gradual, so a single month of product launches is unlikely to fully resolve a supply overhang built over years, even in the bullish case. What July can realistically deliver is evidence, early adoption data showing whether the products attract genuine usage and generate real fee demand, and that evidence, more than the price itself, is what will indicate whether the pivot is working. A token can remain weak on price while its underlying utility begins to build, and the disciplined reader watches the adoption metrics beneath the price for the leading signal, because in a distribution-to-utility pivot, usage turns before price does, if it turns at all.
The bullish case: extreme oversold and new utility
The case for a bounce, or a bottom, rests on two pillars. The first is the extreme oversold condition, which is the strongest technical argument in the bulls’ favor. Pi’s momentum indicators sit at their most oversold since the token launched, a reading that historically precedes relief rallies because it reflects selling exhaustion, the point at which the sellers who wanted out have largely left and even modest buying can produce a sharp bounce. Oversold conditions do not guarantee a reversal; a token can stay oversold as it grinds lower, but they do mean the conditions for a snapback are present, and an oversold bounce from here could carry toward the $0.1228 and $0.1344 resistance levels quickly if any catalyst sparks it.
The second pillar is the demand catalyst the bears’ analysis leaves out: the Pi2Day product launches. The project has timed a set of releases around its annual event, and the most significant for token demand is a verification product built on a fee-in-PI model, meaning users pay for the service in PI, creating direct, recurring token demand instead of the speculative demand that has dominated the token’s history.
Alongside it, a hosting product and a sign-in service aim to extend Pi’s utility into real applications. If these products gain adoption, they represent the first genuine demand-side counterweight to the relentless unlock supply, the kind of fee-driven token sink that gives a token a use beyond speculation. The bullish thesis is that the timing is deliberate, the project is answering its supply overhang with utility precisely when the token is most oversold, a supply cliff of the kind that has stress-tested far larger tokens, and if the products deliver, the combination of selling exhaustion and new demand could mark a bottom near the lows. This is the pivot the entire project has pointed toward: from a mining-and-distribution phase that created supply to a utility phase that must create demand, and July is its first real test.
Three scenarios for July
The supply-demand collision produces three coherent paths, organized around the $0.10 floor and the demand response.
The bearish scenario is the unlock winning. If the 103.7 million tokens meet weak demand and the new products fail to generate meaningful early adoption, the selling pressure pushes Pi through the $0.10 psychological floor into the undefined territory below, where thin prior structure makes the decline hard to arrest and a swift move lower possible. A weak broader crypto tape would reinforce this path. It is the default if demand does not answer the supply.
The base case is a grind near the lows. Pi holds around the $0.10 to $0.12 zone, defending the psychological line on dips and stalling beneath the broken $0.12 support on bounces, as the unlocked supply and whatever demand the products generate roughly offset each other. In this path, the token consolidates at its lows while the market waits for clearer adoption evidence, neither breaking down decisively nor recovering, the most likely outcome if the product launches show promise but not yet scale.
The bullish scenario is oversold plus utility. Selling exhaustion at the most oversold reading since launch combines with genuine early adoption of the Pi2Day products to spark a relief rally, reclaiming the $0.12 support and climbing the $0.1228 to $0.1496 resistance staircase, with the move amplified by the thin float and any short-covering. This path requires the demand catalysts to actually deliver measurable usage, and it is the one the project has engineered toward, arriving at the moment of maximum oversold potential.
The targets on the table
Forecasts for Pi span a wide range and deserve extra caution, because the token’s short history, unusual distribution, and thin prior structure make confident prediction especially difficult. Short-term technical projections cluster around the levels named above: a downside case that breaks $0.10 and explores the territory below, against a recovery case that reclaims $0.12 and climbs toward the $0.1228 to $0.1496 resistance band on an oversold bounce or a successful product launch.
Analyst and forecasting-service targets for the month vary widely, from bearish projections extending the decline below the psychological floor to more optimistic scenarios in which the oversold condition and the Pi2Day catalysts drive a rebound toward the mid-teens in cents, with the widest bull cases requiring both a market-wide recovery and demonstrable product adoption to justify.
The honest reading of the target spread is that it maps directly onto the supply-demand collision at the heart of the month: the bearish targets assume the unlock supply dominates and the products underdeliver, while the bullish targets assume the oversold bounce and the new utility combine to arrest the decline.
For July specifically, the levels matter more than any single price target, with the $0.10 floor and the $0.12 reclaim as the two lines whose behavior will signal which side of the collision is winning. Given the token’s volatility and its record-low, thinly-supported position, the range of plausible outcomes is genuinely wide, and the disclaimer at the end of this piece carries more weight than usual.
What to watch as the month unfolds
For a reader tracking Pi through July, the signals divide cleanly into the two sides of the collision, and most are observable. On the supply side, the unlock’s actual market impact is the thing to watch: whether the 103.7 million tokens visibly pressure the price as they become liquid, or whether holders absorb them by holding instead of selling, which would show up as the price stabilizing despite the increased supply. Exchange inflows, tokens moving to venues where they can be sold, are the on-chain tell that unlocked supply is heading for the market instead of staying in wallets.
On the demand side, the product-adoption metrics are the leading indicator, and they matter more than the price itself. The specific things worth watching are whether the verification product attracts real users, whether its fee-in-PI model generates measurable, recurring token demand, and whether the hosting and sign-in products find developer and application uptake.
Announcements are not adoption; the signal is usage, and early usage data, however small, is the clearest evidence of whether the pivot is beginning to work. Above the two sides, the $0.10 psychological floor is the single price level whose behavior summarizes the contest: its defense keeps the bottoming thesis alive, and its decisive failure confirms that supply is winning.
Two context factors round out the dashboard. The broader crypto market, driven by the same macro forces weighing on the majors, is a backdrop that can lift or sink Pi regardless of its own supply-demand balance, since a token at all-time lows is especially vulnerable to a weak tape.
And sentiment, measurable in community activity and trading interest, is worth watching as a contrarian signal, because extreme pessimism at an extreme oversold reading is historically the environment from which sharp reversals begin, if a catalyst arrives to spark them. A reader watching the unlock’s impact, the adoption data, the $0.10 line, and the market backdrop has the full picture, and is positioned to read the collision’s outcome as it resolves instead of guessing at it in advance.
The honest bottom line
Pi Network’s July 2026 is a supply-demand collision at the worst possible moment for the token and, arguably, the most interesting one. On one side, 103.7 million tokens unlock into a market already at all-time lows with faded sentiment and a broken trend, a concrete and substantial supply headwind.
On the other, a set of product launches timed to the project’s annual event promises, for the first time, real token utility and fee-driven demand, arriving precisely when the token is at its most oversold reading since launch. The month’s direction depends on which force proves stronger, and the token’s thin structure beneath the $0.10 line means the downside is undefined while the oversold condition means the upside could be sharp if a catalyst lands.
The single most useful thing to watch is the interaction between the two forces: whether the Pi2Day products show real adoption, measured in actual usage and fee-driven token demand rather than announcements, and whether that demand is enough to absorb the unlock supply. The $0.10 line is the number that matters, its defense keeping the bottoming thesis alive and its failure confirming the bears.
Pi enters the month at its lowest and most oversold, which is simultaneously the most dangerous position, thin support below, and the position from which the sharpest recoveries historically begin, if demand arrives. Whether the project’s pivot from distribution to utility delivers that demand in time is July’s question, and honestly, the adoption data and the unlock’s market impact, not any forecast, will answer it.
A final word on holding perspective at a moment like this, because a token at all-time lows generates strong emotions that cloud analysis in both directions. The bearish extreme reads the record low and the rising unlock as proof the project is failing, and the bullish extreme reads the oversold bounce potential and the new products as proof a reversal is imminent, and both are overconfident. The honest position sits between them: Pi faces a real, quantifiable supply headwind this month, and it is simultaneously attempting a real, potentially meaningful pivot to utility at the point of maximum oversold pressure, and the outcome depends on adoption data that does not yet exist.
Neither the doom case nor the moon case is supported by what is actually knowable today, and the discipline the situation rewards is patience with the evidence, watching the unlock’s impact and the product uptake accumulate through the month instead of committing to a narrative before the data arrives.
For a project whose entire thesis now rests on converting an enormous user base into genuine token demand, July is the first chapter of the test, not the verdict, and the most useful stance is to read it honestly, as it is written, one week of evidence at a time.
Pi arrives at July carrying both the largest community in its category and the lowest price in its history, a contradiction that is itself the story: distribution succeeded, valuation did not, and the gap between them is exactly what the utility pivot must now close. The month will not close it alone, but it will show whether the closing has begun.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and you can lose your entire investment; Pi Network in particular carries elevated uncertainty given its short trading history and unusual distribution. Price levels, unlock figures, and product timelines reflect information current as of July 9, 2026, and are subject to change; verify current conditions before making any decision. Always do your own research.
Robinhood (Nasdaq:HOOD) launched the public mainnet of its new blockchain on July 1, and unfortunately, tons of people are already losing money trading its coins. Bad actors are using a variety of scam contracts, memecoin rug-pulls, phishing links, and garden variety theft, leading to complaints of loss flooding onto social media.
Relay Protocol warned about scam tokens on the new Robinhood Chain: “If you bought one, the funds you spent are unfortunately gone.”
In this example, scam contracts are accepting a token swap, briefly crediting the buyer’s wallet yet immediately transferring the tokens back to the deployer’s wallet. In other words, users unwittingly purchased tokens for someone else.
Another trader alleged that Robinhood Wallet’s default sell screen auto-populated a Robinhood Chain scam coin called USER. Unless someone modified that default, the position would vaporize. “$600 out the window in seconds,” complained the user.
Another trader swapped ether (ETH) for a poisoned memecoin named $ROBINHOOD inside their Robinhood Wallet. The instant the swap confirmed, tokens moved to an unauthorized wallet.
Wallet drainers and fake token scams
A collector of NFTs claimed an OpenSea swap of Robinhood Chain assets sent his coins to an unauthorized address, costing him $350.
A trader tagged Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev after losing $50 to what he called scam transactions.
An AI-branded Robinhood Chain memecoin, HOODIE, halved in price in a single afternoon.
Read more: Read this before you click on any Robinhood email
“It is absolutely crawling with wallet drainers and fake token scams right now,” warned another researcher, alleging that a holder of CASHCAT lost $56,000 to a hacked smart contract on Robinhood Chain.
Someone else asked whether Robinhood Chain had gone full rug mania. Another observer estimated thousands of users losing money bridging over assets from Solana-based PumpFun.
A researcher posted that memecoins account for more than 75% of the last two days of Robinhood Chain trading. That is not a good statistic, as a general rule, due to almost all meme coins trending toward $0 eventually.
“ROGE on Robinhood Chain is a 100% honeypot. The contract has a backdoor,” warned another trader.
Clifford asked a wallet provider to enable revoke-approvals on Robinhood Chain to help users undo their smart contract authorizations.
Another user urged traders to audit smart contracts prior to authorizing in the first place.
Protos previously tracked losses on branded memecoins and the near-total mortality rate of Pump.fun token launches. The long-term performance of most speculative digital assets like NFTs is identical.
Robinhood Chain’s permissionless architecture replicated many of those conditions and created an environment ripe for scams.
The new Robinhood Chain is nine days old.
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Bitcoin (BTC) demand shifts are “behind” the price rebound to $64,000, new analysis claims.
Key points:
- New Bitcoin price analysis says that US whales are behind the latest spate of BTC price relief.
- The Coinbase Premium is above its 14-day moving average, a key sign of strength.
- Research from Bitcoin Suisse suggests that “something changed” on the market this week.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium still negative despite trend line reclaim
In a blog post on Friday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant attributed Bitcoin’s July upside to US-based whales.
Specifically, the Coinbase Premium — the difference in price between Coinbase’s and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs — is showing early signs of buy-side momentum “regaining strength.”
“The Coinbase Premium Index for both BTC and ETH remains in negative territory, but both have bounced off their local lows,” contributor Burak Kesmeci wrote.
“On top of that, both metrics managed to reclaim their SMA14. This is what’s behind Bitcoin’s move from 58K to 64K, and Ethereum’s rally from $1,500 to $1,750.”
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index with 14-day SMA. Source: CryptoQuant
Kesmeci referred to the Coinbase Premium Index’s 14-day simple moving average. As Cointelegraph reported, the Index has spent much of 2026 in negative territory, implying weak demand from both large and small investors on the largest US crypto exchange.
“Once again, U.S. whale activity is proving to be the leading data point for trend direction. Short-, medium-, and long-term regime shifts can all be read through this metric,” Kesmeci continued.
The Index currently sits at -0.08, per CryptoQuant data, having last flipped positive on daily time frames more than two months ago.
“The current picture is a catalyst for a short-term bounce — but for a real long-term regime change, this metric needs to break above zero,” Kesmeci concluded.
Bitcoin Suisse: “Bottom signal framework flashing”
As Cointelegraph reported, institutional demand is also on the radar for market participants.
Related: BTC speculators in focus as analysis says ‘textbook Bitcoin bottom’ is underway
The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw their first net inflows after a record-breaking $2.7 billion losing streak.
Data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors nonetheless shows investor sentiment remains sensitive to even small BTC price moves.
On Thursday, a third straight day of net outflows totaled $95.3 million.
US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
Analyzing a basket of metrics, crypto finance provider Bitcoin Suisse included ETF flow data as one signal that the status quo on the market has changed.
“Eight weeks of ETF outflows. Bitcoin at a 21-month low. This week, something shifted,” it told X followers in a thread on Friday.
Bitcoin Suisse described a “bottom signal framework flashing” while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in its lowest “extreme greed” zone.
Crypto’s infrastructure is starting to look a lot more like traditional finance. New data from Dune shows that the world’s stablecoin leaders — Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC — are no longer competing for the same users, with each now dominating a different corner of the market. Meanwhile, demand for MiCA-compliant euro stablecoins is accelerating, hinting that the stablecoin economy is slowly expanding beyond the US dollar.
Elsewhere in Crypto Biz, Strategy reignited debate over its “never sell” philosophy after offloading more than $200 million in Bitcoin (BTC) to fund shareholder dividends, while Vanguard signaled that even Wall Street’s biggest crypto skeptics are embracing tokenization.
USDT, USDC use cases diverge as stablecoins become chain-specific
USDT has become crypto’s dominant payments stablecoin while USDC has cemented itself as DeFi’s preferred settlement asset, according to new data from Dune.
Rather than competing head-on, the industry’s two largest stablecoins are carving out distinct roles. USDT settled $95 billion in identified commercial payments during the first half of 2026 and continues to dominate business-to-business transfers. USDC, meanwhile, is driving onchain trading and DeFi activity, processing trillions of dollars in monthly transfer volume across Base and Ethereum.
The divergence suggests Tether and Circle are strengthening their positions where network effects are already on their side.
The supply of USDT is divided almost evenly between Tron and Ethereum, while USDC remains highly active on Ethereum. Source: Dune
Strategy sells more than $200 million in BTC
Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin worth $216 million to fund preferred stock dividends, marking its largest sale since adopting BTC as its treasury asset.
The sale trimmed Strategy’s holdings to 843,775 BTC and follows a new capital framework that allows Bitcoin sales to fund dividend payments. Even so, the company kept its $2.55 billion cash reserve intact, suggesting the biggest publicly traded BTC holder isn’t under liquidity pressure but is opting for greater financial flexibility as its preferred shares trade below par.
The sale is unlikely to signal a broader shift away from Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy, according to Bernstein analysts. Still, it has fueled fresh debate over the company’s departure from co-founder Michael Saylor’s long-standing “never sell” mantra, even as Strategy remains the largest corporate buyer of Bitcoin.
Strategy’s yearly net Bitcoin purchases. Source: Bernstein
Euro stablecoins gain traction under MiCA
The market capitalization of MiCA-compliant euro stablecoins surged 128% in the year leading up to the EU’s July 1 regulatory transition deadline, suggesting the overwhelmingly US dollar-dominated stablecoin market is beginning to diversify, according to payments company Decta.
The combined value of eight actively traded euro stablecoins climbed to nearly $674 million, while trading volume increased 43% over the same period. To be sure, euro-pegged tokens remain a niche market, accounting for just 0.22% of the roughly $315 billion dollar-backed stablecoin sector.
The growth comes as Europe debates whether its MiCA regime is helping or hindering the bloc’s digital asset ambitions. Industry groups argue the framework has made euro stablecoins safer but less competitive through strict reserve requirements and a ban on yield, while policymakers remain divided over whether loosening the rules would help the euro compete with the dollar.
The market capitalization of the eight largest euro-denominated stablecoins. Source: Decta
Vanguard seeks digital asset executive
Vanguard is hiring a head of digital assets to oversee its strategy on tokenization, stablecoins and blockchain infrastructure, signaling a notable shift for one of Wall Street’s most crypto-skeptical asset managers.
The new executive will help shape Vanguard’s approach to digital asset products and custody and represent the asset manager in discussions with regulators, according to the job posting. The hiring stands in sharp contrast to the asset manager’s long-standing refusal to offer or even support spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The move reflects a broader shift across traditional finance, where tokenization has become a strategic priority regardless of firms’ views on cryptocurrencies. Asset managers, including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, Fidelity and WisdomTree, have all expanded their tokenized fund offerings as demand for blockchain-based financial products continues to grow.
The head of digital assets job posting first appeared on July 6. Source: Vanguardjobs.com
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Crypto exchange Backpack has launched 24/7 trading for select tokenized US equities, allowing international investors to trade stocks including SpaceX, Micron and SanDisk around the clock.
Under the initial offering, Backpack said that investors would receive direct ownership of the underlying securities rather than synthetic exposure, with trades settling instantly and funded in fiat currency or stablecoins. The initial offering includes a limited selection of US equities, with additional stocks planned.
The company also offers Solana-based tokenized versions of the securities, which can be transferred between wallets, used in decentralized finance applications and converted 1:1 into the corresponding shares through Backpack.
Backpack said the service is available to investors in more than 150 countries and regions and that trades are backed by liquidity from traditional exchanges.
The company added that tokenized SpaceX shares became the most actively traded tokenized version of the private rocket and AI company after launching in June, though it did not disclose trading volumes or provide comparisons with competing offerings.
Related: Tokenized stock transfers surge 105% in a month to $8.4B
Earlier this year, Backpack unveiled a token distribution model tied to its planned US initial public offering. Users who stake the exchange’s native token for at least one year will be eligible to exchange it for company equity after the IPO, while part of the token supply will remain locked until at least one year after the listing.
Traditional finance joins tokenized equities push
Backpack’s launch comes as tokenized equities have become one of the fastest-growing segments of the onchain real-world asset (RWA) market.
According to RWA.xyz data, the tokenized stock market has grown from about $379 million to $1.85 billion over the past year. Over the past 30 days alone, distributed value has climbed 28.6%, while monthly transfer volume has surged over 85% to $8.76 billion.
Tokenized stocks. Source: RWA.xyz
Crypto exchanges have led much of that growth. Kraken, which acquired xStocks developer Backed Finance in late 2025, has expanded the platform across its exchange, while Bybit and Bitget have also integrated xStocks. Coinbase and Binance have likewise rolled out tokenized equity offerings in recent months.
Traditional exchanges have also embraced tokenization. In March, the SEC approved Nasdaq’s pilot to trade tokenized stocks alongside conventional securities on the same exchange, while the New York Stock Exchange partnered with Securitize to develop a 24/7 platform for tokenized stocks and ETFs.
The following month, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) announced plans to launch a tokenized securities service in October after a pilot involving more than 50 financial and crypto firms.
Magazine: Will the crypto lobby’s $189M campaign get CLARITY over the line?
Robinhood said eligible US-based customers will soon be able to connect third-party AI agents to make crypto trades on their behalf, marking the latest expansion in autonomous trading after the company rolled out a similar product to equities and options traders in May.
“You can work with an agent to create a strategy with specific guardrails and not need to be constantly monitoring your account,” a Robinhood executive said during a presentation on Friday.
Robinhood didn’t set a date for when it would roll out the product to eligible US crypto traders but noted that its UK customers would be next in line to access the offering.
Equities traders can already ask AI agents to invest in crypto mining stocks on their behalf. Source: Robinhood
The push for autonomous crypto trading adds to Robinhood’s broader crypto strategy, which has primarily focused on real-world asset tokenization and the company’s Ethereum layer 2 Robinhood Chain, which launched earlier this month.
Robinhood’s senior vice president and general manager of crypto, Johann Kerbrat, said the new blockchain processed 17 million transactions from nearly 350,000 wallet addresses in its first week.
Meanwhile, over 70,000 agentic accounts have already been created by Robinhood equities and options traders since late May, when the platform launched a beta version of the product.
AI agents serve to even the playing field
During the presentation, the Robinhood executive said the AI agents would enable retail users to base trades on data that they would have otherwise missed, putting them on a more equal playing field with institutions:
“This is another big step towards giving retail investors every advantage that institutions have enjoyed for decades.”
Robinhood offers the agentic accounts through several third-party AI companies, including Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX’s Grok.
Robinhood is also enabling eligible users to have credit card purchases made on their behalf by AI agents.
It comes as crypto industry executives like Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire have tipped that AI agents will become the dominant users of blockchain payments in the next few years.
AI agent crypto payment integrations are also taking place
Several notable integrations advancing AI agent-driven stablecoin spending have emerged in recent months, including one by Amazon Web Services in May when it integrated Coinbase’s x402 payments protocol into Amazon Bedrock AgentCore, allowing agents to transact in the USDC (USDC) stablecoin.
Related: Robinhood Venture Fund invests $75M in OpenAI
In April, crypto wallet startup Oobit launched a Visa-supported virtual card for AI agents to make online purchases in USDt (USDT) on behalf of businesses.
AI agent payments adoption lagging
Despite the integrations, data shows that AI-agent transaction activity on the blockchain remains relatively small, with Artemis data showing that only $2 million in transaction volume was facilitated through the AI agent-supported x402 protocol in June.
Features: The 5 types of real world assets being tokenized fastest onchain
OpenAI has reportedly supplied AI technology to Chinese companies on the Pentagon’s military-linked blacklist, adding fresh scrutiny to U.S. controls over advanced artificial intelligence exports.
Summary
- OpenAI and Google reportedly provided AI access to Chinese firms on the Pentagon’s Section 1260H blacklist.
- The reported access has renewed debate over U.S. AI export controls and cloud-based model distribution.
- The development comes as OpenAI expands GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna across ChatGPT, Codex, and its API.
According to the reported findings, OpenAI and Google provided access to their AI models to Chinese companies included on the U.S. Department of Defense’s Section 1260H list, which identifies entities the Pentagon believes are tied to China’s military-industrial complex.
While inclusion on the list does not automatically prohibit commercial dealings or trigger sanctions, the designation serves as a warning for U.S. businesses evaluating relationships with those organizations.
The reported access has drawn attention because both companies have publicly positioned themselves as important partners in Washington’s efforts to maintain U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence.
OpenAI has repeatedly highlighted its role in strengthening American AI capabilities, while Google has expanded work with U.S. defense and intelligence agencies. Against that backdrop, the reported availability of their models to blacklisted Chinese firms has raised new questions about how advanced AI systems are distributed internationally.
Cloud-based AI remains difficult to control
Unlike conventional defense technologies that move through physical supply chains, AI models can be delivered through cloud-based application programming interfaces, commercial partnerships, or intermediary services. According to the report, those distribution channels make frontier AI systems harder to restrict once they become commercially available, even when governments tighten technology controls.
The development comes shortly after OpenAI expanded access to its latest GPT-5.6 family. As crypto.news reported earlier, the company has begun rolling out GPT-5.6 across ChatGPT, Codex, and its API while introducing a new capability-based lineup consisting of GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna.
OpenAI said the release replaces its previous naming convention and separates models by intelligence, speed, and pricing, with availability expanding across consumer, enterprise, and developer products worldwide over a 24-hour deployment window.
Regulatory pressure could increase
At the policy level, the reported model access arrives as Washington continues tightening restrictions on advanced AI technology reaching China. The U.S. Commerce Department has repeatedly expanded chip export controls, while successive administrations have introduced measures governing the transfer and diffusion of advanced AI capabilities.
According to the report, if frontier AI models continue reaching companies connected to China’s military despite those efforts, lawmakers could seek stricter oversight of AI distribution. Possible measures discussed in the report include mandatory know-your-customer checks for AI API users or direct limits on providing advanced models to organizations in countries viewed as strategic rivals.
The report also notes that investors may watch the issue closely because additional regulation could affect how leading AI developers generate revenue from global API services. Any congressional inquiry or executive action targeting commercial AI model access could alter operating conditions for companies that currently rely on broad international customer bases.
Competitive effects may also follow if U.S. providers face tighter distribution rules. According to the report, restrictions on American frontier models could create opportunities for domestic Chinese AI developers, including Alibaba, Baidu, and DeepSeek, whose products would remain available within China’s technology ecosystem even if access to U.S. models becomes more limited.
We are already more than halfway through the year, and it’s safe to say that it hasn’t been kind to the largest cryptocurrencies. All three of the ones that we will explore in this article are deep in the red YTD after dipping to new local lows.
But let’s be more optimistic about the rest of 2026 and ask ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, and Grok which they believe has the most potential to post the biggest gains in the next 5-6 months.
ChatGPT and Gemini Say…
Perhaps the most widely known and used AI outlined the realistic and bullish peaks of all three assets: $95,000 for BTC, $3,200 for ETH, and $2.50 for XRP in one of the cases, and $135,000, $4,500, and $4.50, respectively, in the other. Consequently, their realistic and bullish upside potentials ranged between 48% and 110% for the market leader, 97% and 117% for the largest altcoin, and 136% and 325% for Ripple’s cross-border token.
Its winner is quite clear: “XRP has the greatest percentage upside, followed by ETH, which is the best balance between upside and fundamentals.” Bitcoin, on the other hand, is described as the one with the “highest probability of a rally, but the lowest potential returns.”
Gemini had a slightly contrasting opinion. It placed Ethereum as the “highest theoretical upside contender,” since it is currently the most beaten down. It outlined the upcoming Glamsterdam update as a potential catalyst for future gains, as it promises to fix the fee structures.
“Because it is starting from such a compressed level, its upside multiplier is massive,” Gemini added.
It categorized XRP as the “clearest binary catalyst,” while BTC falls under the same category – the highest probability for a run, but the lowest percentage potential.
Grok and Perplexity Add…
Grok agreed to a large extent with Gemini. It said XRP “edges out for explosive relative gains,” since it’s smaller in size, while its pent-up narrative (payments and regulatory resolution), alongside its sensitivity to positive news, makes it the “highest beta play among the three.”
“In risk-on environments with altcoin rotation, XRP often amplified moves. However, this comes with higher risk – if macro weakens or catalysts delay, it could underperform,” Grok explained.
BTC is the safest “big rally” bet, while ETH balances utility and adoption but may “lag in pure speculative rallies unless specific narratives catch fire.”
Perplexity took ChatGPT’s side, indicating that “ETH probably has the best asymmetric rally potential in H2 2026, while BTC is the most likely to be steady, and XRP is the wild card with the sharpest upside if catalysts hit but the highest execution risk.”
The post BTC vs ETH vs XRP: Which Could Explode the Most in H2 2026? AIs Pick Their Winner appeared first on CryptoPotato.
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