Bitcoin’s latest drawdown has done more than nudge its price lower. It coincided with a sharp reevaluation of its place in the global asset hierarchy, as BTC’s market capitalization slipped below the $1.5 trillion mark and its ranking within the world’s top assets fell to 13th. The move comes amid a broader rotation of capital into traditional safe havens and AI-driven equities, set against renewed geopolitical frictions and macro headwinds.

Bitcoin traded off a rally that had seen it hover around $83,000 earlier in May, with prices dropping toward the $72,000 area. That move shaved the market cap from roughly $1.66 trillion to about $1.45 trillion, underscoring how quickly asset leadership can shift in a risk-off environment. The retreat has BTC trailing several widely followed conglomerates and tech players, placing it behind heavyweights such as Saudi Aramco, Tesla, and Meta Platforms as investors reallocate capital.

The broader market backdrop features a notable rotation into traditional stores of value and AI-focused equities. A surge in precious metals has underscored demand for non-crypto hedges, while semiconductor and AI-related stocks have outperformed Bitcoin in 2026. In parallel, a number of major technology and memory-makers have crossed sizable valuation thresholds, signaling a market tilt toward cash-generative tech and high-growth AI exposure. Micron Technology, for one, has eclipsed the $1 trillion valuation amid the ongoing AI and chip-driven rally.

Analysts offered mixed readings on Bitcoin’s longer-term prospects. One observer warned that “things are starting to look scary” as BTC’s position in global rankings deteriorates. Others argued that the sell-off does not erode Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative or its longer-run upside potential. A third commentator framed the move as a potential bottom signal, though cautioned that confirmation would require more price action. These views illustrate a landscape where immediate price catalysts clash with longer-term structural arguments around BTC’s role in a diversified portfolio.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s market capitalization fell to roughly $1.45 trillion, dropping BTC from the world’s top 10 assets to 13th place by market cap.
• Prices moved from about $83,000 in May to a low near $72,000, aligning with the market-cap reordering and a broader risk-off tone.
• There was a clear rotation into safe havens and AI equities, with gold and silver rallying and AI/semiconductor stocks outperforming Bitcoin in 2026.
• BTC’s realized price is approaching a bearish cross with the 365-day moving average, a configuration historically followed by meaningful drawdowns in prior cycles.
• Past episodes of a realized-price death cross coincided with sharp declines (notably in the mid-2022 bear market and the 2018 macro downturn), underscoring potential downside risk if the pattern completes.

Bitcoin’s market cap slips and the asset rebalancing

Bitcoin’s price decline from the high-70,000s to the low-70,000s level has not occurred in a vacuum. Its market capitalization collapsed from about $1.66 trillion to approximately $1.45 trillion, reflecting a broader reshuffling of capital away from crypto toward other asset classes. In the wake of the move, BTC fell out of the global top 10 assets by market cap, ranking 13th overall. The shift places BTC behind heavyweight corporates and tech giants, illustrating how quickly risk sentiment can tilt away from digital assets in favor of traditional equities and value-oriented plays.

The pullback comes amid a confluence of external pressures: ongoing geopolitical tensions, mixed macro signals, and a general risk-off mood that has benefitted traditional safe-havens and AI-led equities. The landscape is further complicated by strong performances in AI and semiconductor sectors, which have attracted fresh capital flows and, in some cases, overtaken BTC in market capitalization. The broader implication for investors is a reminder that BTC’s market position is not insulated from macro cycles and sector rotations, even as its scarcity and adoption narratives persist over the long horizon.

Safe havens rise as AI stocks take the lead

Beyond Bitcoin, the market narrative has been shifting in favor of assets perceived as safer havens or high-growth tech exposures. Gold, which had surged to extraordinary levels earlier in the year before retreating, remains a focal point for risk-off flows. The precious metal narrative has been supported by a broader rally in metals, with gold and silver reaching or approaching multi-year highs in different phases of the cycle. One study noted gold’s all-time rally in the context of a wider rotation into traditional assets, underscoring how macro uncertainty can drive money toward tangible stores of value.

Meanwhile, the AI and semiconductor rally has continued to reshape market leadership. Major chipmakers and AI hardware plays have climbed the capitalization ladder, at times surpassing Bitcoin. This dynamic is visible in metrics showing names like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Broadcom outpacing BTC in market cap as AI-driven demand and semiconductor supply constraints push valuations higher. The momentum in AI-related equities reinforces a market where technology and computing infrastructure increasingly dictate relative asset strength, even as digital assets face episodic volatility.

In this tilt, market participants have pointed to the evolving demand dynamics around BTC. Some observers argued that the drop does not erase Bitcoin’s inherent scarcity, a long-run driver that could still anchor demand as the macro environment stabilizes. Others warned that, if the rotation persists, BTC could endure further mark-to-market pressure before a potential rebalancing takes hold.

Death cross on the realized price looms for Bitcoin

Analysts highlight a technical setup that could foreshadow further weakness: a pending death cross between Bitcoin’s realized price and its 365-day moving average. The realized price—an average of the cost basis of all coins in circulation—has historically acted as a magnet for BTC’s price, with a cross below the moving average signaling diminished momentum. The current configuration mirrors patterns seen in past bear markets, though the exact timing and magnitude of any follow-on moves remain uncertain.

The last time this bearish crossover materialized, BTC faced significant downside, including the mid-2022 bear market when prices collapsed from around $69,000 toward the realized-price level, culminating in a roughly 52% decline to $15,500. A similar 52% drawdown occurred during the 2018 macro downturn. At present, Bitcoin is trading about 35% above its realized price, roughly near $54,200. If the historical pattern repeats, a reversion toward the realized price could pull BTC into the low-$30,000s, though many analysts deem such a move unlikely in the near term.

“This must be a bottom signal.”

As market participants weigh these signals, observers emphasize that a cross does not guarantee a rebound or a crash—it simply increases the probability of a continued move in the direction signaled by the cross. The current setup adds a layer of caution for traders who are evaluating risk-reward in a market where macro factors and sector rotations are now a primary driver of asset performance.

In sum, Bitcoin’s latest price action has produced a visible shift in the asset’s relative standing within the global markets. The combination of a slipping market cap, a drop in ranking, and a looming realized-price death cross paints a picture of a market that remains highly sensitive to macro dynamics and sector rotations. For investors, the message is clear: BTC’s long-term narrative—scarcity, adoption, and network effects—continues to compete with a broader macro regime that favors AI-linked equities and traditional hedges in the near term. The coming weeks will be telling as macro data, geopolitical developments, and crypto-specific demand signals converge to decide whether BTC reclaims leadership or remains tethered to broader risk-off flows.

Stellar’s native token, XLM, has rallied more than 50% this week, outperforming the broader crypto market, which has declined by nearly 5% in the same period.

Key takeaways:

• US financial giant DTCC announced it would integrate its tokenized securities platform with the Stellar Network.
• XLM rallied by over 50% after the announcement, but risks a sharp downside in the coming weeks.

DTCC partnership fuels XLM rally

XLM’s price surged after a major institutional partnership announcement by the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a US financial giant that clears and settles $10 trillion to $12 trillion in securities transactions daily.

In a Wednesday press release, the firm revealed plans to integrate its tokenized securities platform with the Stellar network, targeting a launch in the first half of 2027.

XLM/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The move builds on DTCC’s tokenized trades, launched in July 2026, based on its multi-chain strategy for tokenized asset issuance, reporting, corporate actions, and settlement.

XLM rallied 51.75% after the DTCC announcement and traded for as high as $0.224 on Friday, its highest level since January. Trading volumes rose sharply alongside the upside move, suggesting that many buyers stepped in.

Short squeeze helped fuel XLM price rally

A crowded short trade appears to have also amplified the XLM upside move. Since May 28, Stellar’s short liquidations have reached $12.41 million, compared with $6.82 million in long liquidations, according to CoinGlass.

Stellar total liquidations chart vs. XLM price. Source: CoinGlass

That means bearish traders suffered nearly 1.8 times more forced closures than bullish traders as XLM surged from around $0.15 to as high as $0.224.

XLM open interest nearly doubled during the same period, reaching $292.11 million on Friday. That shows traders added heavy leverage as the rally unfolded, instead of simply closing positions.

Stellar open interest vs. XLM price. Source: CoinGlass

At the same time, XLM’s OI-weighted funding rate dropped to around -0.0270%, its deepest level since April, even as the price climbed.

Stellar’s OI-weighted funding rate vs. XLM price. Source: CoinGlass

Negative funding means short traders paid long traders to keep their positions open, showing that bearish positioning remained crowded during the breakout.

When the price rises against heavily leveraged shorts, exchanges force bearish traders to buy back the token to close their trades. That forced buying adds fresh upward pressure, leading to a “short squeeze.”

XLM’s PayPal and Trump rallies raise sharp pullback risks

Stellar’s latest breakout mirrors earlier XLM rallies that ended with steep corrections.

In November 2024, XLM surged by roughly 640% after Donald Trump’s re-election as the US president. However, the rally quickly lost momentum, with XLM later dropping by about 68.6% from its local peak.

XLM/USD two-week chart. Source: TradingView

A similar pattern played out in July 2025, when PayPal’s stablecoin launch on Stellar and growing excitement around the Protocol 23 upgrade helped XLM rally by around 140%.

However, the upside was short-lived, with the XLM/USD pair later correcting by roughly 73.8%.

The risk now is that the DTCC-driven rally follows the same pattern.

XLM is running hard into long-term resistance

XLM’s latest rally has pushed the token into a major long-term resistance zone, raising the risk of a pullback or consolidation.

As of Friday, XLM was trading near the $0.198–$0.224 ceiling area, and a zone that also overlaps with three exponential moving averages (EMA), namely the 50-week EMA (red) near $0.2216, 100-week EMA (purple) near $0.2281 and 200-week EMA (blue) near $0.2083.

XLM/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Failure to break above the resistance confluence, which analyst MAGIC called “too strong for the first test,” risks sending the XLM price toward the $0.112–$0.136 area, down 30%–40% from current levels, by June or July.

The downside target area aligns with the lower trendline of XLM’s prevailing descending channel pattern.

Related: Altseason is dead, expect shorter cycles and ‘violent’ rotations: Crypto exec

Conversely, a decisive breakout above the resistance area raises the odds of XLM rallying toward the channel’s upper boundary near the $0.28–$0.30 range by June or July. That’s up roughly 40% from the current price levels.

• Litecoin price has bounced as RSI nears oversold conditions.
• Nexus Wallet added gift card payments and privacy upgrades for LTC use.
• LitVM speculation and $53.30 resistance shape near-term price direction.

Litecoin (LTC) traded around $51.54 on Friday morning, posting a roughly 2% gain over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.

The modest advance came while Bitcoin remained mostly flat, making Litecoin one of the better-performing large-cap cryptocurrencies in the short term.

However, despite the daily rebound, the broader trend remains under pressure, with LTC still down nearly 47% over the past year.

Recent Litecoin price action has been influenced by a combination of technical positioning and renewed attention around ecosystem developments, particularly the Nexus Wallet upgrade and ongoing speculation surrounding LitVM.

Nexus Wallet update strengthens payment narrative

Recent developments in the Litecoin ecosystem, particularly the Nexus Wallet update linked to the Litecoin Foundation, have drawn increased market attention.

The update introduces a more integrated spending experience for Litecoin holders, most notably through direct in-app gift card purchases using LTC.

This removes the need for external platforms or additional conversion steps, streamlining real-world crypto payments.

The wallet also builds on existing payment infrastructure, including integrations with Flexa, which enables in-store crypto payments across supported merchants.

Together, these features position Nexus Wallet as a broader spending tool rather than simply a storage solution.

The update also includes privacy enhancements. The wallet supports MWEB (MimbleWimble Extension Block) transactions for optional private transfers, alongside Tor routing for additional network-level privacy.

This setup allows users to choose between transparent and private transactions based on preference.

Market participants have largely viewed these upgrades as incremental improvements to Litecoin’s payment utility rather than immediate price catalysts.

Still, the developments reinforce the broader narrative that Litecoin continues to position itself as a transactional asset rather than purely a speculative token.

LitVM speculation adds optimism

Alongside wallet-related utility improvements, speculation surrounding the upcoming Litecoin Virtual Machine (LitVM) has also supported sentiment.

LitVM is described as an EVM-compatible zero-knowledge Layer-2 system designed to expand Litecoin’s smart contract capabilities.

Although no official mainnet launch timeline has been confirmed, ongoing community discussions have kept the narrative active.

At this stage, LitVM’s impact remains more psychological than structural. It has not yet produced measurable on-chain changes, but it has helped sustain investor attention during a period of otherwise limited fundamental catalysts.

Technical analysis

Litecoin has been trading within a relatively tight range, with intraday price action fluctuating between $50.56 and $51.99.

The recent rebound was accompanied by increased trading activity, suggesting the move was not driven solely by low-volume volatility.

On the upside, traders are monitoring the $53.30 level as the next key resistance zone, a level highlighted by market commentator cryptoWZRD_.

A decisive move above that area would likely be needed to signal a transition from range-bound trading toward a stronger recovery phase.

On the downside, a break below $51.90 could expose LTC to further weakness toward the $50.34 region, which traders view as the next key liquidity zone.

Outlook: range-bound market awaiting confirmation

Litecoin’s current setup reflects a market balancing technical structure against narrative-driven catalysts.

The $51.90 level remains an important support threshold for maintaining the recent rebound, while resistance near $53.30 continues to represent the next major test for bullish continuation.

Until either level is decisively broken, Litecoin is likely to remain in a consolidation phase driven primarily by short-term trading flows.

While wallet utility improvements and ongoing LitVM speculation continue supporting sentiment, price direction remains dependent on technical confirmation rather than a major fundamental shift.

• Chainlink (LINK) trades near $8.92 with a 7-day drop of ~9.7%.
• Mastercard deal boosts adoption, but the trend stays technically bearish.
• The $9.02 resistance and $8.85 support define the next move.

Chainlink has remained in a persistent downtrend over recent weeks, falling roughly 9.7% over the past seven days and about 43.8% over the past year.

The token is currently trading near $8.92, holding within a tight 24-hour range between $8.81 and $9.06.

Although short-term price action shows a modest recovery of around 1% over the past 24 hours, the broader trend remains under pressure.

Against this backdrop, a new partnership with Mastercard has drawn attention from traders and institutional participants.

The partnership introduces a fiat-to-crypto gateway designed to route traditional card payments directly into on-chain protocols.

The system allows Mastercard’s global user base to purchase digital assets without relying on centralized exchanges as intermediaries.

Instead, transactions are processed through a compliance-focused routing engine that connects Mastercard’s payment rails with Chainlink’s infrastructure and a network of fintech providers.

The development has raised questions about whether it could improve long-term sentiment around LINK, particularly as technical indicators continue pointing to weakness.

Institutional integration meets early accumulation signals

Although price action has remained weak, on-chain and institutional data present a more nuanced picture.

Wallet data from Santiment shows that addresses holding at least 100,000 LINK have risen to 805, marking an 8.2% increase over seven weeks.

The steady growth suggests that larger holders have continued accumulating during the downturn rather than reducing exposure.

At the same time, ETF-related flows have added another layer of interest, with approximately $984,000 in inflows recorded on July 28.

While the figure is not large enough to materially shift price direction on its own, it suggests institutional participation has not fully disappeared during the broader decline.

Another structural factor is the Chainlink Reserve, which recently accumulated 132,002.92 LINK valued at more than $1.1 million.

That brought total reserve holdings to roughly 3.91 million LINK.

The reserve is funded through a combination of enterprise revenue and on-chain service usage, creating a recurring mechanism that gradually absorbs supply over time.

Taken together, these developments suggest that while the broader market trend remains bearish, accumulation is occurring across multiple channels.

Technical structure still controlled by sellers

Despite improving institutional and ecosystem narratives, technical indicators continue reflecting a dominant downtrend.

According to market analysis from Coinlore, Chainlink currently shows 13 sell signals, 3 buy signals, and 7 neutral readings across 23 indicators.

Moving averages also remain firmly bearish, with all major daily exponential moving averages (EMAs) — including the 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs — positioned above the current price.

That alignment indicates the broader trend has not yet shifted in favor of buyers.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 38.41, remaining in neutral territory rather than deeply oversold conditions.

This suggests selling pressure has eased somewhat, but momentum behind a sustained reversal remains limited.

Price structure also highlights several key technical levels.

Initial resistance is positioned near $9.02, followed by $9.19. A stronger resistance zone sits around $9.82, which aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement level.

On the downside, support is located near $8.85, followed by a lower structural level around $8.79. A break below that range would likely extend the current downtrend.

Can the Mastercard partnership change the trend?

The Mastercard integration represents a structural shift in how users interact with blockchain networks.

By enabling direct fiat-to-on-chain routing, the system reduces friction between traditional payment infrastructure and decentralized applications.

Mastercard’s global reach, combined with Chainlink’s interoperability layer, creates a pathway for broader onboarding without depending on centralized exchanges.

However, the market impact is unlikely to be immediate.

LINK continues trading below all major moving averages, and the broader technical structure remains bearish.

For a more meaningful reversal to develop, the token would likely need to reclaim the $9.02 level on a sustained basis before attempting a move toward $9.19 with stronger volume confirmation.

Without that technical confirmation, the partnership is more likely to function as a long-term adoption catalyst rather than an immediate trigger for trend reversal.

Bitcoin has stabilized near $73,000 after a three-day slide, but bearish chart signals suggest the correction may not be over.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price was trading around $73,200 at press time, recovering modestly after briefly falling toward the $72,600 region on May 28. The decline erased more than 10% from Bitcoin’s May peak near $81,000 and came as investors rushed out of risk assets amid fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East and renewed concerns over the global economy.

Sentiment improved slightly on Friday after reports suggested U.S. and Iranian negotiators were working toward a memorandum of understanding that could extend the ceasefire by 60 days and reopen shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. The development helped stabilize oil prices and reduced some of the panic selling that had weighed on crypto markets throughout the week.

The geopolitical shock arrived as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded one of their largest withdrawal streaks of the year. More than $733 million exited the products on May 27 alone, with BlackRock’s IBIT reportedly accounting for over $500 million of the total. Such redemptions force ETF issuers to sell underlying Bitcoin holdings, adding direct spot-market supply during periods of weak demand.

Additional concerns emerged after on-chain observers noticed Michael Saylor’s Strategy transferring more than $30 million worth of Bitcoin to Coinbase.

While the company has not announced any intention to sell its holdings, the transaction sparked speculation across social media about whether the largest corporate Bitcoin holder could be preparing to reduce exposure. The transfer also reignited debate over Strategy’s long-standing commitment to accumulating and holding Bitcoin indefinitely.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic conditions have become less supportive of speculative assets. Recent U.S. CPI and PPI reports came in above expectations, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s target. Futures markets have sharply reduced expectations for rate cuts this year, while Treasury yields remain elevated and the U.S. dollar has strengthened against major currencies.

Adding to the pressure, analysts at JPMorgan said both Bitcoin and gold have recently lost momentum as preferred macro hedges. According to the bank, easing Middle East tensions and moderating inflation concerns have triggered capital outflows from what it described as “devaluation trades.”

ETF products linked to both assets have experienced notable withdrawals over the past two weeks, while institutional participation in CME futures has weakened.

Has Bitcoin’s technical structure turned decisively bearish?

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a deteriorating trend structure after repeated failures near the $80,000 resistance zone. The asset has now fallen below its 50-day simple moving average and remains firmly beneath the daily Supertrend resistance near $79,000.

A rounded-top formation has emerged on the daily timeframe, with price creating a series of lower highs following the rejection from the $81,000 region earlier this month. The structure resembles a distribution phase rather than a healthy consolidation, particularly as each recovery attempt has attracted sellers before Bitcoin could reclaim key resistance levels.

Momentum indicators also favor the bears. The daily MACD has completed a bearish crossover, with the signal line remaining above the MACD line while histogram bars continue expanding in negative territory. Such setups often accompany extended corrective phases rather than immediate trend reversals.

The weekly chart offers little encouragement for bulls. Bitcoin has slipped back below a key horizontal support area near $73,000 that previously acted as a breakout level. A weekly close beneath that zone would increase the probability of a move toward the February lows in the mid-$60,000 range.

The Aroon Up has fallen toward 7.14%, while Aroon Down sits near 78.57%, showing that downside momentum currently dominates the higher timeframe trend. Weekly RSI remains below its signal line near 42, suggesting buyers have yet to regain control.

Derivatives markets present another challenge. CoinGlass liquidation data shows substantial leverage clusters concentrated around $72,000 and $71,500, with a particularly large liquidity pocket sitting near $72,200. Should Bitcoin lose the $72,500 support area, forced liquidations could accelerate downside momentum toward those levels.

At the same time, the heatmap reveals a dense concentration of short liquidations between $74,500 and $76,000. Such clusters often attract short-term price movements as market makers seek liquidity before the prevailing trend resumes.

Commenting on the current setup, crypto analyst Lennaert Snyder noted that Bitcoin may experience a temporary relief rally despite maintaining an overall bearish outlook.

The analyst identified the previous day’s high around $74,500 as the next likely liquidity target, suggesting the level could be swept before sellers attempt another move lower.

According to Snyder, a recovery into the $74,500-$75,600 region could attract buy-side liquidity before sellers attempt another leg lower. The analyst identified the previous week’s high near $78,200 as the most attractive area for bearish positioning after the previous week’s low had already been swept.

“For this week, the most extreme point for shorts is as close as possible to the 78.2K PWH since the PWL is taken. Everything below 78.2K could offer very nice shorts on the retest.”

In a separate price forecast, analysts at Crypto World warned that Bitcoin is approaching a critical support zone near $72,000, which they described as the last major support level before a potential decline toward earlier year-to-date lows.

Looking at the four-hour chart, the analysts noted that Bitcoin continues to form lower highs and lower lows, a structure that typically signals sustained bearish momentum. They expect the cryptocurrency to fall toward the $71,000 support area before any meaningful relief bounce can occur.

The analysts added that Bitcoin must reclaim resistance levels at $74,500, $75,000, and $78,000 to invalidate the current downtrend and improve the prospects for a sustained recovery.

What could invalidate the bearish thesis?

The immediate upside catalyst remains the evolving geopolitical situation. Any formal agreement extending the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and guaranteeing unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would likely reduce energy-market uncertainty and improve risk appetite across global markets.

ETF flows also deserve close attention. Bitcoin’s recent decline coincided with some of the largest institutional withdrawals of 2026. A return to sustained inflows would remove a major source of selling pressure and could help stabilize BTC price above current support levels.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin must reclaim the daily Supertrend resistance near $79,000 to invalidate the current bearish structure. Such a move would place the asset back above its recent breakdown zone and increase the likelihood of a retest of the $81,000-$82,000 region.

Failure to hold $72,500, however, could expose Bitcoin to another wave of liquidations. Below that level, the next major support zones emerge near $72,200, $71,500, and $68,000, with the weekly chart suggesting a deeper correction toward the mid-$60,000 area if selling pressure intensifies.

For now, Bitcoin remains caught between improving geopolitical headlines and a weakening technical backdrop. Whether buyers can reclaim the $74,500-$76,000 liquidity zone over the coming sessions may determine if the current pause develops into a recovery rally or merely a brief stop before another leg lower.

Standard Chartered says Ethereum’s network activity remains close to record levels even as Ether (ETH) trades far below last year’s highs, arguing that the gap between usage and price could eventually narrow.

Ethereum’s internal metrics, including transaction counts and total value locked in ETH terms, remain close to record levels, according to a Thursday report from Standard Chartered’s digital assets research team. ETH has fallen about 57% from its August 2025 peak of above $4,800 to under $2,000 at the time of writing, according to Coingecko data.

StanChart’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, reaffirmed its price targets of $4,000 by the end of 2026 and $40,000 by 2030, implying a return of the ETH/BTC ratio to its 2021 highs around 0.08.

The call comes as investors debate whether Ethereum’s growing dominance in stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets will eventually translate into stronger returns for ETH itself, despite persistent ETF outflows and weak price performance.

Kendrick likened the current disconnect to Amazon during the dot-com bust, arguing that “everything inside the company was going the right way” even as the stock price slumped.

ETH price over the last year. Source: Coingecko

Max Shannon, senior research associate Europe at Bitwise, agreed with Standard Chartered’s Amazon analogy, telling Cointelegraph it relates to Ethereum’s “lack of narrative” and “lack of value accrual from cheap layer-1 and layer-2 transactions.”

He said value accrual can improve as onchain assets and their velocity grow and as users pay higher gas fees for premium services such as zero-knowledge transactions, pre-confirmations, maximal extractable value, and large institutional trades.

Ethereum main settlement layer for stablecoins and RWAs

The report highlights Ethereum’s role as the main settlement layer for stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets, projecting that stablecoin market capitalization will grow sixfold to about $2 trillion by 2028 and tokenized non-stablecoin assets will expand 50-fold to a similar size, with Ethereum currently hosting roughly half to two-thirds of each market.

Related: Ethereum treasury firms lean on staking as ETF pressure builds: Report

Transactions on Ethereum reached an all-time high of more than 3.6 million on April 28 and have since dropped to around 2.2 million on Thursday, according to Etherscan. Total value locked in decentralized finance has dropped from around $97 billion in August to $41.65 billion on May 27, according to data from DeFiLlama.

Ethereum transactions per day, all time. Source: Etherscan

Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, a crypto private markets advisory firm, told Cointelegraph that it is “heartwarming to see a traditional bank stick to their thesis,” despite overall disappointing market sentiment. He said that, in crypto, price is “often its own narrative,” and fundamental value is “an afterthought.”

Mixed signals across the market

Other market signals are more nuanced. Bitmine Immersion Technologies, the largest public buyer of ETH by far, currently owning over 5,300,000 ETH, doubled down on its expectations of a supercycle this week, citing Wall Street’s interest in tokenization and artificial intelligence-powered agents.

ETH ETF outflows hit 11th consecutive day. Source: Farside Investors

That optimism contrasts with a wave of departures from the Ethereum Foundation and public skepticism from some long-time Ethereum commentators over how much of the network’s growth will ultimately accrue to ETH itself.

US spot ETH exchange-traded funds add another layer to the picture. Farside ETH ETF data shows the products posted a $67.1 million net outflow on May 27, marking 11 consecutive days of withdrawals, even after seeing stronger inflow sessions earlier in the year.

D’Anethan said the question remains whether Ethereum’s tailwinds will outpace Bitcoin’s in the long term, pointing out that previous cycles in which altcoins outperformed BTC no longer hold. “It’ll be interesting to see where large trading firms, institutions, sovereign funds and nation-states ultimately place their bets,” he said.

Shannon said that Biwise’s Factor Model shows the momentum has mostly been driven by Bitcoin and that approximately 80% of ETH price variation can be explained by BTC. “Macro, equities and fundamental drivers such as active addresses have all taken a back seat,” he said.

Market Moves: Why is Ethereum Foundation selling? BTC futures warning signs

When Bitcoin (BTC) finally escaped from its channel pattern and secured a multiple-day close above the $77,000 resistance, traders rejoiced and declared the downtrend over. 

Fast-forward to the present and BTC has fallen below multiple support levels and appears at risk of retesting $70,000, a 16% decline from its range highs. 

While billion-dollar spot BTC ETF outflows, resumption of combat between the US and Iran, concerns over rising inflation and growing fear that the CLARITY Act will not pass in the Senate are all factors in Bitcoin’s crumbling strength, the real question is whether spot and futures demand will kick in and stem the price decline.

Since falling below $75,000 in February 2026, the level has served as an important support/resistance level. With $60,000 agreed upon by analysts as the cycle bottom for BTC, longer-term leverage was built around the $70,000 to $75,000 zone, and much of that is being cleared out this week. 

Liquidation heatmap data from Hyblock highlighted this dynamic, and in a post on X, the analysts said,

“On the higher lookback (1 month of liquidity), we continue stairwelling down, taking another large long liq cluster.” 

BTC/USDT one-month liquidation heatmap data. Source: Hyblock

While revisiting the lower boundaries of Bitcoin’s 2026 range is far from ideal for bulls, a silver lining has emerged. As BTC fell below $73,000 on Thursday, the BTC/USDT bid-ask ratio metric at Hyblock printed candles above zero, a first since April 12. 

Set to 10% order-book depth, the bid-ask ratio at 0.03 shows bids becoming dominant in order books as BTC price dropped below $73,000, an early indication that traders are buying in spot markets. 

At the same time, the true retail longs-and-shorts accounts metric, which shows the percentage of retail futures accounts holding long positions, has risen above 64%. 

BTC one-hour chart showing bid-ask ratio and retail longs/shorts accounts. Source: Hyblock

According to Hyblock analysts, 

“If you long every single 15m candle that had true retail accounts long percentage above 64% (the current value), then 927 out of 1,056 (88%) of those candles results in positive 7d forward returns.” 

Bitcoin forward returns data based on true retail accounts. Source: Hyblock

The data suggest that despite the negative sentiment surrounding negative news flow, the spot ETF dynamics and fragile geopolitics, the retail investor cohorts within the spot markets view the current pricing as discounted. 

Related: Bitcoin funding spike shows longs defending $70K: Will ETF outflows reverse bulls’ efforts?

A similar view is displayed by the spot and futures aggregate cumulative volume data at Binance where “dip buyers” are seen generating $185.58 million and $62.8 million in volume over the last 10 hours. 

BTC/USDT one-hour chart spot and futures cumulative volume delta. Source: TRDR.io