Bitcoin (BTC) could tumble by over 60% to under $24,000 in 2026, according to technical analyst Jesse Olson, if the stock market experiences a major crash.

Key takeaways:

• A US stock market crash of over 50% may accelerate BTC’s sell-off.
• Negative Coinbase premium and persistent ETF outflows hint at de-risking among institutional investors.

Bitcoin chart flags $23,980 worst-case downside target

In a Sunday post, Olson shared a two-week Bitcoin chart showing BTC potentially falling toward $23,980, based on a long-term volume-weighted support line from his proprietary Market Sniper Pro VWAP indicator.

BTC/USD two-week price chart. Source: TradingView/Jesse Olson

The yellow line on the chart represents a custom version of anchored volume-weighted average price (aVWAP), a tool traders use to track the average price of an asset, weighted by volume, from a specific starting point.

In Bitcoin’s case, Olson appears to have anchored the line from the 2022 bear market bottom, allowing it to slope forward as a potential long-term support zone.

Olson presented the $23,980 level as his base-case Bitcoin forecast in a severe macro sell-off, wherein the stock market drops by over 50%. The type of stress Olson warns about is already being flagged by veteran market observers.

For instance, GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham has called the ongoing AI market boom a major speculative bubble. While Michael Burry has compared the current rally to the final stages of the Dot-com mania.

Related: Arthur Hayes dumps HYPE, NEAR as he warns of AI IPO wave

Economist Gary Shilling has also warned that a US recession is “almost inevitable” by year-end, with stocks at risk of a 20%–30% decline.

BTC often trades like a high-risk asset during market stress. A deep stock-market sell-off could force investors to cut crypto exposure, turning Olson’s $23,980 level into a key downside level to watch.

Bitcoin institutional demand remains weak

Another bearish signal comes from the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks Bitcoin’s price gap between Coinbase and Binance.

A positive premium usually points to stronger US institutional demand, while a negative reading suggests weaker professional buying or heavier selling on Coinbase.

In Bitcoin’s case, the index has largely remained negative so far in 2026, showing that institutional buyers are still not stepping in with conviction.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index vs. price. Source: CryptoQuant/Darkfost

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are showing a similar trend. Since May, the US-based funds have recorded $4.68 billion in net outflows, according to SoSoValue data, reflecting weaker demand from professional investors and other ETF buyers.

US Bitcoin ETF net flows. Source: SoSoValue

“These investors don’t act like retail,” said Darkfost, a CryptoQuant-associated on-chain analyst, in a Sunday post, adding:

“They operate under permanent risk management logic, they’re not looking to buy a potential bottom, they’re looking for confirmation, for performance. And that’s not the case yet.”

In the past, multiple analysts, including Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn and pseudonymous trader Crypto Kid, have said Bitcoin could decline below $30,000 in the event of a stock market crash.

NEAR is making a specific wager: that the future of crypto is autonomous AI agents transacting at machine speed, and that they will need a blockchain built to handle them. A June upgrade is the centerpiece. Here is the thesis, the technology, and the one number that complicates it.

NEAR Protocol has spent 2026 rebuilding its pitch to the market around a single, specific bet: that the future of crypto belongs to autonomous AI agents, software that transacts on its own at machine speed, and that those agents will need a blockchain engineered to handle them.

The wager is sharp and unusual in a field full of vague AI branding, because NEAR is pointing at a concrete use case, an on-chain economy where AI agents buy compute, settle payments, label data, and execute trades automatically. Those agents could generate bursts of transactions that would paralyze a conventional blockchain, and NEAR is positioning itself as the infrastructure built to absorb that load.

A major network upgrade in June 2026, introducing automatic scaling, is the centerpiece of the bet, and NEAR’s leadership has branded the token “the currency of agents” and the network “a unified commerce layer.” The thesis is deeply interesting, the technology is real, and there is one number that complicates the whole story.

This piece works through NEAR’s bet in full: the AI-agent thesis and why a blockchain for agents would need to be different, the June upgrade called dynamic resharding and what it actually does, the other pieces NEAR has assembled around the thesis including its cross-chain settlement system and its privacy tooling, the tokenomics that tie usage to the token’s value, and the honest complication, a gap between NEAR’s soaring narrative and its actual on-chain usage that every serious observer should weigh.

The goal is to explain what NEAR is trying to become and to assess the bet clearly, neither dismissing a real and ambitious technical effort nor accepting the narrative uncritically. NEAR is one of the more concrete expressions of the AI-crypto thesis, and understanding it illuminates where that whole idea stands.

The bet: a blockchain built for AI agents

To understand NEAR’s strategy, you have to understand the specific future it is betting on, because the entire technical effort follows from a particular vision of how crypto will be used.

The vision is an on-chain economy populated by autonomous AI agents, software programs that act on their own to accomplish goals, transacting with each other and with services at machine speed and scale. In this future, an AI agent might need to buy computing power on one blockchain, settle a payment on another, and store data on a third, all automatically.

A swarm of such agents reacting to an opportunity, a profitable arbitrage, or a large data-labeling task, could suddenly generate hundreds of thousands of transactions in a short span. This is a fundamentally different usage pattern from human-driven crypto, where transactions arrive at human pace and human scale.

Agents operate at machine frequency, in unpredictable bursts, and at volumes that would overwhelm a blockchain designed for human users, which is the problem NEAR has decided to solve. That makes it another AI-crypto crossover, but one focused on transaction infrastructure rather than identity.

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $64,000 on Sunday amid concerns over unreliable BTC price strength.

Key points:

• Bitcoin brushes off US-Iran tensions despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed.
• A trader calls BTC price behavior “suspicious” as a result, while targets see maximum upside reaching $66,000.
• Binance sell-side pressure remains substantial.

BTC price ignores new Hormuz closure, Iran strike threats

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting local highs of $64,522 on Bitstamp before reversing to trade 0.5% lower on the day.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair maintained most of its gains despite fresh instability in the US-Iran war, with Tehran once again closing the Strait of Hormuz oil route and placing the current peace deal in doubt.

Israeli strikes on Lebanon lay at the heart of the stand-off, with Iran warning that last week’s ceasefire could unravel entirely as a result. US President Donald Trump responded with defiant rhetoric.

“Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social, threatening “harder” strikes on Iran.

Source: Truth Social

Hours before US futures markets were due to open, crypto traders were predictably cautious.

“$BTC is pumping with rising geopolitical tensions, very suspicious,” trader Lennaert Snyder commented on X.

Snyder nonetheless saw a potential move to $66,000 as part of the current uptick, predicting an “interesting week” for Bitcoin.

Fellow trader Killa, meanwhile, warned that history favored the week’s high coming sooner rather than later.

“Monday hasn’t been kind to $BTC lately,” they told X followers. 

“Over the past six weeks, 6 out of 6 Mondays have marked a local pivot high before price moved lower.”

BTC/USD chart with Monday peaks marked. Source: Killa/X

Binance spot market sellers keep up pressure

Analysis of exchange order books produced further misgivings.

Related: Bitcoin tipped for Q3 ‘macro bottom’ near $50K as major liquidity grab looms

Commentator Exitpump said that short interest on Binance meant that it was the derivatives markets behind the latest price rise.

“Despite price slowly grinding higher, Binance spot continues to sell into the move. Mostly perps driven move up,” they wrote on Saturday.

BTC/USD 10-minute chart with order-book data (Binance). Source: Exitpump/X

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on persistent “aggressive” sell pressure from Binance keeping bulls in check.

Michael Saylor has again raised speculation that Strategy may be preparing another Bitcoin purchase after posting a short message on X tied to the company’s familiar accumulation chart.

The Strategy chairman wrote, “Looks better with more dots,” alongside a Strategy post.

Dash is evaluating the Philippines as a potential market for crypto payments, with the project pointing to persistent pressure on consumers to use lower-cost transaction options. During Philippine Blockchain Week 2026, Dash Blockchain’s global adoption lead, Daria Chernozub, said the team is focused on regions where high fees and friction can make everyday payments difficult and where users may be more willing to adopt new digital tools.

Chernozub told Cointelegraph that Dash’s approach is geared toward “people who are suffering from high commissions” and need payment solutions that are simple to use. She also said Dash is conducting an assessment of local demand and market readiness, while prioritizing legal compliance before any launch.

Key takeaways

• Dash is exploring the Philippines for crypto payments, emphasizing lower transaction costs and easier user experience in markets with high fees.
• Dash says it is still assessing the local market and is prioritizing regulatory compliance, including preparation of a legal opinion letter for discussions with relevant bodies.
• The Philippine SEC says foreign companies can register a corporation online in about 20–30 minutes, but operating a crypto business may still require additional approvals.
• Industry participants argue that crypto-specific regulation is considerably more demanding than standard corporate registration, citing multi-year compliance work for exchange partnerships.

Dash’s Philippines push: payments built for fee-sensitive users

Dash’s stated rationale for looking at the Philippines centers on everyday payment costs and usability. In an interview at Philippine Blockchain Week 2026, Chernozub framed the project’s target demographic as users facing expensive commissions and looking for a straightforward alternative. She said the Philippines is a fit because consumers are generally open to learning about new technologies.

Even with that fit, Chernozub emphasized that Dash is not yet in a launch phase. She said the team is working through its market assessment and is placing compliance at the top of its priorities. According to her remarks, Dash has started engaging with major market participants and prepared a legal opinion letter intended to support talks with regulatory and financial industry stakeholders.

Why the compliance gap matters: registration can be fast, crypto operations may not be

A major point raised at the same event was the difference between setting up a corporate presence and meeting crypto-related regulatory obligations. Philippine Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Rogelio Quevedo told Cointelegraph that foreign investors can register a corporation online from anywhere in the world in roughly 20 to 30 minutes. He described the SEC’s online registration process as part of a broader digitization and innovation push.

Quevedo’s comments suggest that the administrative step of forming a local entity has become much easier for foreign firms. However, the ability to register quickly does not automatically translate into permission to operate a crypto business. Crypto companies may still need additional licensing and must satisfy compliance requirements tied specifically to digital assets and payments.

This tension—between streamlined corporate setup and more complex crypto oversight—was echoed by other speakers at the event. Marie Antonette Quiogue, BlockShoals’ head of legal and CEO of Arden Consult, said the Philippines offers a regulated pathway for foreign crypto exchanges, but that path carries significant obligations. She pointed to the roughly two years BlockShoals spent developing its arrangement with Binance, underscoring how long compliance processes can take even when a framework exists.

Regulatory framework exists, but effort is still front-loaded

Quiogue’s account highlights a practical reality for investors and operators: the “ease” of registering a company is only the beginning of the work. According to her, while the SEC has created a framework for foreign crypto exchanges seeking entry into a regulated environment, meeting the requirements can demand substantial time and coordination.

For market participants, this matters because early compliance decisions can affect timelines, budgeting, and product scope. A project evaluating the Philippines—such as Dash—may need to plan not just for consumer-facing deployment, but also for legal assessments, documentation, and stakeholder engagement well before any rollout of payment services.

In that context, Chernozub’s mention of preparing a legal opinion letter for discussions with regulatory and financial industry bodies signals a similar approach: aligning technical plans with compliance expectations early, rather than treating it as a late-stage hurdle.

Market attractiveness: demand signals and a tech-forward consumer base

Beyond regulations, speakers also pointed to structural factors that could make the Philippines appealing for crypto-related services. Quiogue said the country’s young population, high mobile usage, and widespread English proficiency could help attract overseas crypto firms. Chernozub, meanwhile, connected Dash’s interest to the behavior of local consumers—especially their openness to learning about new technologies—alongside the economic reality that fee-sensitive users often seek more cost-effective options.

Taken together, the discussions suggest that the Philippines may be attractive not because compliance is minimal, but because the demand for accessible financial tools and the ability to reach users via mobile platforms could support adoption—provided firms can successfully navigate the regulatory requirements for crypto activity.

For readers watching this story, the key question is what “compliance-first” assessment ultimately enables. Dash’s current status is exploratory, with legal positioning and market engagement underway. The next signals to monitor are whether Dash moves from evaluation into concrete regulatory discussions and whether it identifies a practical pathway for payment deployment within the local framework.

Quick Summary

• May’s PCE inflation reading arrives Thursday and may exceed April’s 3.8% annual increase
• Micron Technology delivers quarterly results Wednesday, with its valuation reaching $1 trillion and stock surging 800%-plus year-to-date
• Weekly gains: S&P 500 up 1.08%, Nasdaq jumped 2.48%, Dow edged higher by 0.14%
• SpaceX completed the biggest IPO ever recorded, securing $85.7 billion at a valuation exceeding $2 trillion
• Bitcoin advanced 0.46% to $64,139, underperforming the technology-driven equity surge

Equity markets pushed higher through the previous week, propelled by significant technology sector developments, a landmark public offering, and renewed optimism regarding international trade relations. Here’s a breakdown of recent action and critical events approaching in the days ahead.

Major Indexes Close With Solid Gains

All three primary U.S. benchmarks finished in positive territory. The S&P 500 advanced 1.08% to settle at 7,500.58. The Nasdaq posted a 2.48% gain, reaching 30,406.19, buoyed by robust appetite for technology and growth-oriented equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14%, finishing at 51,564.70.

A preliminary U.S.-Iran peace agreement boosted investor confidence. The potential for resumed commerce through the Strait of Hormuz contributed to declining crude prices and encouraged risk-on positioning.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield finished the week at 4.455%. This level remains significant for growth-focused companies, which typically face pressure when financing costs climb.

The Federal Reserve, now led by recently appointed Chair Kevin Warsh, maintained its current interest rate stance. However, policymakers indicated additional tightening remains possible should inflationary pressures persist. The central bank has kept rates unchanged since December.

Bitcoin edged up 0.46% to finish at $64,139.86. Gold dropped 1.72% to $4,172.90. Digital assets lagged the wider market advance, which was predominantly powered by technology and mega-cap growth stocks.

SpaceX Delivers Unprecedented Public Market Debut

The week’s headline event was SpaceX’s public market entrance. Elon Musk’s aerospace and satellite enterprise secured $85.7 billion through its IPO, establishing a new record. The offering valued SpaceX at more than $2 trillion.

The landmark listing redirected investor focus toward major technology and innovation-focused enterprises.

SpaceX also purportedly reached an agreement to purchase AI company Cursor for $60 billion, a strategic step toward bolstering its artificial intelligence operations.

Nvidia revealed intentions to issue at minimum $20 billion in investment-grade debt for general corporate applications. This represents one of the chipmaker’s most substantial financing initiatives since the artificial intelligence expansion commenced.

Fox Corporation disclosed a $22 billion transaction to purchase Roku, the connected TV platform. This acquisition extends Fox’s digital footprint as legacy media organizations pursue stronger streaming and advertising infrastructure.

Yum! Brands divested Pizza Hut to LongRange Capital and Yum China Holdings for $2.7 billion. Management stated the transaction enables concentration on its other primary brands.

Critical Events on the Horizon

Micron Technology unveils fiscal third-quarter financial performance on Wednesday. The memory chipmaker’s valuation has reached $1 trillion while shares have skyrocketed more than 800% year-to-date. The firm posted gross margins exceeding 68% in its latest disclosure, prompting speculation about whether the memory semiconductor cycle approaches a top.

The PCE price index for May releases Thursday. April’s figure registered 3.8% on an annual basis, marking the highest level in three years. May’s reading could climb even further based on additional recent inflation indicators. The Federal Reserve monitors the PCE as its primary inflation gauge.

Additional corporate reports this week feature Carnival Corp., FedEx, BlackBerry, and Darden Restaurants. BlackBerry shares have more than doubled during 2026 driven by its expanding Nvidia collaboration and increasing demand for its QNX operating system deployed in advanced driver assistance technologies.

Key Takeaways

• Micron’s transformation from cyclical memory producer to critical AI infrastructure provider is fueled by surging high-bandwidth memory (HBM) requirements
• The semiconductor giant secured a position as an HBM4 supplier for Nvidia’s upcoming AI platforms
• Analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive: 35 Buy/Strong Buy recommendations, 4 Hold ratings, and no Sell recommendations
• Conservative projections estimate MU shares could reach approximately $840 by 2031, while optimistic scenarios suggest $1,750
• Industry experts predict this memory demand cycle may prove more durable than historical patterns due to AI’s infrastructure requirements

For years, Micron existed in the shadows as just another cyclical semiconductor stock. Today, that narrative is undergoing a dramatic transformation.

Micron Technology, Inc., MU

The catalyst is straightforward: artificial intelligence workloads demand enormous amounts of specialized memory. Advanced AI servers rely heavily on high-bandwidth memory solutions, and Micron stands among the select few manufacturers capable of delivering at enterprise scale.

This dynamic has fundamentally altered Micron’s investment thesis.

Shares have experienced substantial appreciation throughout the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout as HBM and datacenter memory demand continues outpacing available supply. Financial analysts have progressively increased their valuation targets as the AI memory narrative demonstrates remarkable staying power.

The company’s recent inclusion in Nvidia’s HBM4 supply chain represents a strategic win, positioning Micron at the center of next-generation AI computing infrastructure.

Industry observers highlight that Micron’s manufacturing capacity is essentially operating at full allocation. Hyperscale cloud operators and AI infrastructure builders are absorbing production output immediately upon availability.

In response to relentless demand, Micron has expanded its capital expenditure commitments. Executive leadership clearly anticipates sustained market strength.

Projected Valuation Scenarios Through 2031

Analyst modeling presents three distinct trajectories for MU shares over the coming six-year period.

Under a pessimistic scenario, AI infrastructure investment moderates and memory pricing returns to traditional cyclical behavior. Annual revenue approaches $60 billion by 2031, with earnings per share near $10, resulting in a stock price around $200.

The moderate case assumes continued AI demand momentum. HBM contributes an expanding portion of total revenue, profit margins expand, and annual sales reach approximately $110 billion. This pathway suggests earnings per share near $28 and a share price around $840.

An aggressive scenario envisions Micron achieving HBM market leadership with enhanced pricing leverage and revenue climbing toward $180 billion. Under these conditions, shares could potentially reach $1,750.

Weighting these scenarios by probability generates a blended 2031 price target of approximately $947.

Analyst Community Shows Strong Conviction

Wall Street’s endorsement of Micron reaches levels rarely observed across the semiconductor sector.

MarketBeat data reveals the stock currently carries 5 Strong Buy ratings, 30 Buy ratings, and 4 Hold ratings. Notably, zero analysts recommend selling.

Multiple research firms have argued the present memory expansion cycle may exhibit greater longevity than previous upturns, attributing this to AI creating fundamental structural demand rather than temporary purchasing spikes.

Micron’s latest quarterly results and forward guidance support this thesis. Both revenue performance and margin profiles have shown positive trends as HBM represents a growing percentage of the company’s sales composition.

Quick Overview

• Micron’s Wednesday earnings release will test the strength of AI memory chip demand
• Nvidia sentiment hinges on Micron’s performance despite not reporting earnings
• Carnival’s quarterly report reveals the state of consumer travel and leisure spending
• FedEx quarterly results provide crucial insights into trade volumes and e-commerce trends
• Darden’s earnings offer visibility into discretionary dining expenditures

Investors face a critical week ahead, with earnings releases from five major corporations and an inflation reading that could trigger significant market movement.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index for May — which serves as the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation gauge — arrives simultaneously with quarterly reports from Micron, Carnival, FedEx, and Darden Restaurants. Though Nvidia isn’t scheduled to report, the chipmaker remains under close scrutiny.

Micron Technology

Wednesday marks Micron Technology’s fiscal Q3 earnings announcement, positioning it as the week’s most anticipated corporate disclosure.

The semiconductor manufacturer specializing in memory chips has emerged as a primary winner from the AI infrastructure boom. High-bandwidth memory requirements have skyrocketed as technology giants expand their artificial intelligence computing capabilities.

Tightening supply conditions have pushed memory chip prices upward, providing a tailwind for Micron’s profit margins. Market participants will scrutinize profitability metrics, pricing dynamics, and forward-looking statements.

Given the stock’s impressive appreciation, investor expectations have elevated substantially. Guidance that falls short or margin compression could trigger sharp price swings.

Nvidia

While Nvidia won’t be releasing quarterly results next week, it deserves investor attention nonetheless.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

Micron’s financial performance serves as a proxy for the entire AI semiconductor ecosystem. Robust memory chip demand would confirm sustained spending on AI infrastructure — a positive indicator for Nvidia’s business.

Nvidia maintains its dominant position in AI accelerator chips, propelled by purchases from cloud computing platforms and corporate clients. However, the stock’s elevated valuation multiple leaves it vulnerable to shifts in interest rate expectations.

Should the PCE inflation data exceed forecasts, growth-oriented equities like Nvidia might experience selling pressure.

Carnival Corporation

Carnival’s Q2 financial results arrive next week, providing transparency into consumer appetite for travel experiences.

The cruise line operator has enjoyed robust reservation volumes, premium pricing power, and a sustained preference for experiential consumption following the pandemic. Key metrics include reservation patterns, fuel expense management, profit margins, and annual projections.

Declining oil prices may improve the company’s expense profile. Conversely, global political instability has introduced challenges throughout the travel industry.

Carnival’s performance will indicate whether households continue prioritizing vacation spending amid elevated interest rates.

FedEx

FedEx delivers its fiscal Q4 earnings next week, serving as one of Wall Street’s most reliable economic indicators.

The logistics giant’s operations touch retail commerce, online shopping, industrial production, and international shipping. Its financial results provide comprehensive perspective on business activity levels and consumer purchasing power.

FedEx exceeded analyst projections in the previous quarter while upgrading its outlook. Market watchers will assess whether this positive trajectory continued through the final quarter.

The company’s recent divestiture of its freight business, which reports separately later in the week, adds another dimension as investors evaluate FedEx’s strategic transformation and growth prospects.

Darden Restaurants

Darden Restaurants concludes the important earnings stretch with updates from its Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse chains.

The restaurant operator provides direct insight into dining expenditures among middle-class and affluent American consumers. Analysts will examine menu price changes, comparable store sales performance, and customer traffic patterns.

Restaurant industry spending has demonstrated relative resilience compared to other consumer sectors, though inflation pressures and borrowing costs have influenced household spending decisions.

Strong Darden results would indicate continued discretionary spending capacity. Disappointing numbers might suggest consumers are becoming more cautious.

PCE Inflation Data Takes Center Stage

Beyond corporate earnings, the May PCE inflation release represents the week’s potentially most consequential market event.

Persistent inflation would likely keep the Federal Reserve in a holding pattern longer than markets currently anticipate. Such an outcome would weigh on interest-rate-sensitive securities and richly valued growth stocks.

Conversely, cooling inflation could provide momentum for growth equities as investors position for the latter half of 2026.

Market participants will analyze all five companies alongside the inflation figures for clarity on current market conditions and future direction.