Crypto World
Ethereum Loss Saturates, but Holder Exodus Caps Price Recovery
Ethereum continues to trade in a narrow range near $2,000. ETH has struggled to generate sustained upside momentum in recent weeks.
While on-chain data suggests selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, another concern is emerging. A decline in new network participation could restrict fresh capital inflows.
Ethereum Holders Are Realizing Losses
Ethereum’s Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, recently slid to 0.92. This marks the deepest level since April 2025. A reading below 1 indicates that investors are selling at a loss. Such behavior often reflects panic and fear during prolonged consolidation phases.
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Historically, extreme lows in SOPR have preceded reversals. Selling at a loss tends to saturate at these levels. As panic fades, investors often shift to holding rather than exiting positions. Many choose to accumulate at discounted prices. Similar behavior could support ETH stabilization if confidence gradually returns.
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Despite potential loss exhaustion, broader network metrics raise caution. The number of new Ethereum addresses recently fell to an eight-week low. New participants typically inject fresh liquidity and support recovery phases.
Over the past 48 hours, new addresses declined by 34%. The figure dropped from 336,000 to 221,000. This sharp contraction suggests waning retail interest. Reduced onboarding can limit capital inflows, which may constrain short-term Ethereum price appreciation despite improving sentiment among existing holders.
ETH Price Is Stuck At $2,000
Ethereum is trading at $1,970 at the time of writing. The asset remains above the $1,902 support level. However, it continues to struggle below the $2,051 resistance, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Failure to reclaim this zone keeps upside limited.
Current indicators suggest continued consolidation between $1,902 and $2,241. ETH may face repeated rejection near $2,051 until stronger demand emerges. Without confirmation of this level as support, recovery attempts are likely to remain capped, reinforcing range-bound price action.
However, a decisive breakout could shift sentiment quickly. If Ethereum secures $2,051 as support and breaches the $2,241 resistance, bullish momentum may strengthen. Such a move could propel ETH toward $2,395 and higher, invalidating the prevailing bearish outlook and signaling renewed market confidence.
Crypto World
Anthropic PAC launch lands amid Pentagon fight and AI expansion
Anthropic has entered US election financing with a new political action committee as debate over artificial intelligence policy grows in Washington.
Summary
- Anthropic launched AnthroPAC, giving employees a channel to support candidates during rising AI policy debate.
- The PAC arrived as Anthropic battles Pentagon limits tied to weapons use and surveillance policy.
- Google-backed Texas expansion shows Anthropic is growing political reach while scaling infrastructure for AI demand.
The move adds a new political step for the company at a time when it is also fighting the Pentagon in court and expanding its AI infrastructure plans.
Anthropic filed a statement of organization with the Federal Election Commission on April 3 to create “AnthroPAC.” Reports said the committee is an employee-funded PAC tied to Anthropic and set up as a “separate segregated fund.”
The PAC is expected to back candidates from both major parties. Reports also said the money will come from voluntary employee contributions, while federal campaign finance rules require public disclosure and limit how much PACs can give to federal candidates.
The filing comes as AI policy draws more attention in Washington. Anthropic has already taken part in the political debate this cycle through a $20 million contribution to Public First Action, a group that supports AI safety efforts.
The new PAC gives Anthropic another channel to support lawmakers working on AI rules. That step places the company more directly inside the policy fight as lawmakers, regulators, and technology firms push different approaches on AI governance.
Anthropic is also in a legal dispute with the Pentagon over how its AI systems can be used. The company said in March that the Department of War labeled it a “supply chain risk” after it opposed the use of its tools in autonomous weapons and mass surveillance.
A federal judge in California temporarily blocked that action in late March. The Associated Press reported this week that the Trump administration has appealed that ruling to the Ninth Circuit.
Google backs Texas expansion
At the same time, Anthropic is expanding its computing capacity. Reports said Google plans to help finance a Texas data center project for Anthropic that could exceed $5 billion in its first phase and is being developed with Nexus Data Centers.
That project shows how fast AI infrastructure demand is growing. It also links Anthropic’s political move with a wider business push as the company seeks more influence in policy and more capacity for model development.
Crypto World
SpaceX IPO: Can Elon Musk’s $1.5 Trillion Valuation Survive the Market Test?
Key Takeaways
- Elon Musk’s SpaceX is preparing for a potential IPO with a valuation reaching $1.5 trillion
- The company’s Starlink division pulled in approximately $11.8 billion during 2025
- xAI, Musk’s artificial intelligence venture, was absorbed into SpaceX this year
- Investor confidence remains shaky after 2021 IPO class suffered massive losses of 70–80%
- Direct investment in SpaceX remains unavailable to retail traders, with limited fund access through ARKVX
Elon Musk’s aerospace powerhouse is preparing for what could become one of the largest initial public offerings in American market history. With a private valuation climbing to $1.5 trillion, SpaceX currently holds the title of the planet’s most valuable privately-held enterprise.
Musk launched SpaceX back in 2002 with Mars colonization as his ultimate vision. Over two decades, the enterprise has transformed into a leading player across rocket technology, satellite-based internet connectivity, and artificial intelligence applications.
The Falcon 9 launch vehicle stands as the globe’s most economically efficient and dependable rocket system, having completed more than 633 successful missions. Meanwhile, the company’s Starship platform represents a completely reusable spacecraft engineered for transporting humans and equipment to lunar and Martian destinations.
SpaceX’s Starlink internet constellation generated roughly $11.8 billion during 2025, establishing itself as a cornerstone revenue driver for the organization.
The integration of xAI into SpaceX’s portfolio occurred earlier this year. Musk has publicly stated his vision for space-based solar energy collection to fuel AI computing infrastructure on a massive scale, explaining the strategic rationale behind combining these ventures.
Market Volatility and IPO Concerns
The timing of SpaceX’s public market entry comes amid lingering skepticism about new listings. The IPO frenzy of 2021 left countless investors nursing substantial losses.
Allbirds serves as a cautionary tale—once commanding a $2.2 billion valuation, the company recently sold for approximately $39 million. BuzzFeed has seen its market capitalization collapse from over $1 billion to roughly $23 million. Names like UiPath, GitLab, and Warby Parker continue trading 70–80% beneath their debut prices.
These spectacular failures have created a more skeptical investor base. SpaceX faces pressure to demonstrate sustainable profitability rather than relying on market enthusiasm alone.
Unlike numerous ventures from the 2021 cohort, SpaceX operates as an established business generating substantial revenue. However, market observers note that restoring investor confidence requires clearing a significantly higher bar following years of disappointing IPO performance.
Mainstream investors lack direct purchasing options for SpaceX equity at present. Access remains limited to specialized vehicles like the ARK Venture Fund and XOVR ETF, both maintaining modest positions in the company.
Publicly Traded Space Sector Alternatives
Investors seeking immediate exposure to the space economy can access several companies already trading on public exchanges.
Rocket Lab has successfully deployed 252 satellites and is advancing development of its Neuron next-generation launch system. Intuitive Machines maintains a NASA partnership and provided critical infrastructure for the recent Artemis 2 lunar mission.
AST SpaceMobile operates as a direct Starlink competitor in satellite communications, with AT&T and Verizon among its strategic partners.
On the reporting date, Intuitive Machines’ shares surged 18.53%. AST SpaceMobile climbed 10.28%, while Rocket Lab advanced 3.27%.
Crypto World
OpenAI Cap Table Leak Reveals Microsoft’s 17x Windfall While Sam Altman Holds Zero Equity
Key Takeaways
- Microsoft’s approximately $13B investment in OpenAI now stands at roughly $228B — delivering a 17x multiple
- SoftBank deployed $64.6B and has unrealized gains exceeding $50B, with holdings valued at approximately $99.3B
- OpenAI CEO Sam Altman maintains no ownership position in the artificial intelligence company
- The nonprofit OpenAI Foundation retains 25.8% ownership acquired at no cost — while maintaining complete board control
- Nvidia’s position shows a slight loss, holding $29.6B in value against a $30.1B investment
An ownership breakdown detailing OpenAI’s shareholder structure surfaced online in early April, sparking widespread discussion about the distribution of value within the AI giant. Investor Sheel Mohnot shared the document on X, which appears compiled from publicly available filings and secondary market transactions. The data reflects OpenAI’s current $852 billion post-money valuation after completing a $122 billion capital raise.
The spreadsheet details each major investor’s ownership percentage, capital deployed, and return multiplier. This information provides unprecedented transparency into the financial structure of one of tech’s most valuable private companies ahead of its anticipated public offering.
Microsoft emerges as the dominant financial beneficiary according to the leaked data. The tech giant deployed approximately $13 billion through multiple funding rounds — beginning with a $1 billion investment in 2019, followed by a massive $10 billion injection in January 2023, plus an additional $2 billion during 2024. The company’s 26.79% ownership stake carries an estimated value of $228.3 billion, representing approximately a 17.6x return multiple. This combination of scale and returns is unmatched among OpenAI’s investor base.
Microsoft’s quarterly SEC filings verify the $13 billion total investment amount. OpenAI recently identified Microsoft as a material business dependency in investor disclosures, referencing revenue-sharing agreements and exclusive cloud infrastructure commitments.
SoftBank stands as the largest capital contributor beyond Microsoft, having pledged $64.6 billion to OpenAI. The Japanese conglomerate’s 11.66% ownership position is currently valued at approximately $99.3 billion. This represents unrealized gains surpassing $50 billion on the investment. CNBC reporting verified that SoftBank completed funding its $40 billion commitment by December 2025, utilizing a $40 billion bridge financing facility arranged by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.
Original Backers See Extraordinary Multiples
First movers in OpenAI’s funding history achieved the most impressive return multipliers, despite smaller absolute dollar amounts. Khosla Ventures deployed roughly $50 million during 2019, with that position now valued at approximately $1.5 billion — representing a 30x gain. Sound Ventures, the investment firm co-founded by entertainer Ashton Kutcher, committed between $20–30 million and currently holds about $1.3 billion in value, translating to a 43x multiple. Thrive Capital invested $3.5 billion and maintains a 1.98% stake currently worth $16.9 billion.
Nvidia represents the sole investor showing negative returns. The chipmaker holds 3.47% of OpenAI with a current valuation of $29.6 billion, compared to an initial cost basis of $30.1 billion. Much of Nvidia’s contribution came through GPU compute infrastructure rather than direct cash, making the return calculation more nuanced.
CEO Sam Altman’s Equity Remains Undetermined
Perhaps the most striking revelation in the ownership document is that Sam Altman, who has served as OpenAI CEO since 2019, currently possesses zero equity in the organization. His ownership line item shows as undecided. Board chairman Bret Taylor publicly stated in October 2024 that Altman’s equity arrangement had not been finalized. Altman personally refuted speculation about imminent equity grants during an internal employee gathering.
The original OpenAI Foundation nonprofit entity maintains 25.8% ownership with zero capital invested — theoretically producing an infinite return on a holding valued at approximately $219.8 billion. While representing a minority economic interest, the Foundation retains absolute authority over all board member appointments.
OpenAI is preparing for a public market debut targeted for 2026 or early 2027, with discussions centering on a potential $1 trillion valuation. Industry observers anticipate Altman’s ownership compensation will be addressed in connection with that liquidity event.
Crypto World
Drift links $280M hack to radiant attackers
Drift Protocol said the April 1 attack on its platform followed months of planning and social engineering.
Summary
- Drift said attackers spent six months building trust before using malicious tools to breach contributor devices.
- The exchange linked the exploit with medium-high confidence to actors behind Radiant Capital’s October 2024 hack.
- Drift said repeated in-person contact at crypto events helped attackers study contributors and gain access.
The decentralized exchange linked the case to a group that spent time building trust with contributors before sending malicious tools and links. External estimates put the loss at about $280 million.
Drift Protocol said its early review found a long and organized campaign against the platform. The team said the attackers showed “organizational backing, resources, and months of deliberate preparation” during the operation.
The exchange said the contact began around October 2025. According to Drift, people posing as members of a quantitative trading firm approached contributors at a major crypto conference and claimed they wanted to integrate with the protocol.
Drift said the group kept meeting contributors at several industry events over the next six months. The team said the people involved were technically skilled, knew how Drift worked, and appeared to have real professional backgrounds.
That steady contact helped the group gain trust. Drift said the attackers later used malicious links and tools shared with contributors to compromise devices, carry out the exploit, and remove traces of their activity after the breach.
In addition, Drift said it has “medium-high confidence” that the same actors behind the October 2024 Radiant Capital hack carried out this exploit. That earlier attack caused losses of about $58 million and also involved malware used to gain access to internal systems.
Radiant Capital said in December 2024 that a North Korea-aligned hacker posed as a former contractor and sent malware through Telegram. Radiant said “this ZIP file” later spread among developers for feedback and opened the way for the intrusion.
Drift warns conferences can become attack targets
Drift said the people who met contributors in person “were not North Korean nationals.” At the same time, the team said DPRK-linked threat actors often use third-party intermediaries for face-to-face contact and relationship building.
The exchange said it is now working with law enforcement and other crypto industry participants to build a full record of the April 1 attack.
The case has also added a fresh warning for crypto firms, as conferences and in-person meetings can give threat groups a chance to study teams, build trust, and prepare later attacks.
Crypto World
Marvell (MRVL) Stock Soars 21% on Nvidia Partnership and Strong Earnings
Key Highlights
- Marvell’s shares climbed 21.3% throughout March, fueled by robust quarterly results and a transformative Nvidia partnership
- Fourth-quarter revenue increased 22.1% to $2.2 billion, while adjusted earnings per share rose 33.3% to $0.80
- Nvidia committed $2 billion to Marvell through an equity investment and unveiled a comprehensive strategic collaboration
- Company executives project 40% data center revenue expansion in fiscal 2027, significantly exceeding Wall Street’s 25% forecast
- Erste Group launched coverage with a Buy recommendation on April 2, highlighting robust financial metrics and AI market positioning
March proved to be a landmark month for Marvell Technology. The semiconductor company not only exceeded expectations with its quarterly performance but also secured a game-changing agreement with Nvidia.
Marvell Technology, Inc., MRVL
The fourth-quarter financial results impressed investors. Revenue surged 22.1% compared to the prior year, reaching $2.2 billion. Adjusted earnings per share hit $0.80, representing a 33.3% increase. Both metrics exceeded Wall Street projections.
Forward-looking guidance reinforced the positive momentum. Executives forecast a 9% sequential revenue boost in the first quarter, with adjusted EPS projected at $0.79. These projections also surpassed analyst expectations.
However, the month’s most significant development arrived on March 31. Nvidia revealed a $2 billion equity stake in Marvell, accompanied by an extensive strategic alliance.
The collaboration encompasses custom silicon development, networking solutions, and optical technology innovations. At its core sits NVLink Fusion, Nvidia’s framework for incorporating external chips into its artificial intelligence infrastructure ecosystem.
The arrangement’s significance lies in the architectural flexibility it creates. Previously, AI infrastructure typically followed two paths: Nvidia-centric systems or custom XPU chip configurations with Ethernet connectivity. This alliance introduces hybrid possibilities — combining XPUs with Nvidia’s GPUs, CPUs, and interconnect technologies.
Data Center Revenue Projections Exceed Expectations
Management established ambitious targets for fiscal 2027. The chipmaker anticipates data center revenue will expand by 40% — substantially surpassing the 25% consensus among financial analysts.
This optimism appears rooted in its XPU operations, which supply custom AI chip intellectual property to cloud computing giants. While concerns had emerged about potential market share erosion at Amazon following the launch of Amazon’s Trainium chips, the aggressive guidance indicates the XPU business remains robust.
Marvell has simultaneously diversified its client portfolio. Microsoft introduced its enhanced Maia2 XPU processor in January, incorporating Marvell’s intellectual property into the chip architecture.
The Nvidia alliance also encompasses silicon photonics — an emerging technology poised to eventually supplant copper-based networking within AI data centers. Given that Nvidia’s existing NVLink infrastructure relies on copper, the partnership with Marvell represents a strategic shift toward optical interconnect solutions.
Wall Street Coverage Intensifies
On April 2, Erste Group launched coverage of Marvell with a Buy recommendation. The investment firm noted that net profits have doubled across the previous five quarters, while return on equity has climbed to 19%.
Erste additionally emphasized Marvell’s competitive advantages in high-performance analog and optical DSP technologies as fundamental drivers behind its optimistic assessment.
The Nvidia investment propelled Marvell to 52-week peak valuations. The stock had traded within a constrained range for much of the preceding six months, but the convergence of impressive earnings and Nvidia’s endorsement triggered a breakout.
Marvell presently trades at approximately 27 times forward earnings projections — a valuation premium compared to last year, though one that numerous analysts consider justified given the data center expansion outlook.
The company’s XPU offerings now interface with Nvidia’s NVLink Fusion infrastructure, potentially unlocking additional revenue opportunities throughout Nvidia’s expanding network of hyperscale clients.
Crypto World
Crypto policy stakes rise as Anthropic launches PAC amid AI policy rift
Anthropic, the AI safety-focused lab behind several widely used language models, has moved to formalize its political engagement by launching an employee-funded political action committee named AnthroPAC. A filing with the Federal Election Commission shows the organization as a connected entity to Anthropic, organized as a separate segregated fund and aimed at receiving voluntary contributions from employees. The filing outlines the PAC’s intent to participate in federal elections while remaining aligned with the company’s stated interest in AI policy and safety considerations.
Under U.S. campaign finance rules, individual contributions to a federal candidate are capped at $5,000 per election, with disclosures required through public filings. AnthroPAC’s organizers say the fund is designed to support candidates from both major parties. However, observers and industry watchers are already raising questions about how closely the effort will stay within bipartisan lines, given broader debates over AI regulation, safety standards, and the strategic direction of AI policy in Washington.
The AnthroPAC move lands as Anthropic navigates a fraught relationship with the U.S. government over how its technology should be employed. Separately, the Defense Department in February designated Anthropic as a supply chain risk—an action tied to the company’s stance against the use of its AI in fully autonomous weapons and mass surveillance. Anthropic has challenged that designation in court, contending it constitutes retaliation for a protected position. A federal judge in California has temporarily blocked the measure and paused further restrictions while the dispute unfolds.
Beyond governance and defense concerns, Anthropic has already been active politically this cycle. Notably, the company contributed $20 million to Public First Action, a political committee focused on AI safety and related policy advocacy, underscoring the firm’s broader strategy to influence AI-related regulation and public safety standards.
Meanwhile, Anthropic’s broader ecosystem is drawing capital and infrastructure support that could accelerate its technology roadmap. In a related development, Google is preparing to back a multibillion-dollar data-center project in Texas that would be leased to Anthropic via Nexus Data Centers. The project’s initial phase could exceed $5 billion, with Google expected to provide construction loans and be joined by banks arranging additional financing. The arrangement highlights the growing demand for AI infrastructure capable of supporting expansion in model training, inference, and data storage.
Key takeaways
- Anthropic formed AnthroPAC, an employee-funded political action committee registered as a separate segregated fund under the company’s umbrella.
- The PAC is intended to support candidates from both parties, with strict contribution limits and mandatory disclosures under U.S. election law.
- The move occurs amid fraught relations with the Pentagon over AI use, including a safety-focused designation that Anthropic is challenging in court.
- Anthropic has a track record of political giving in this cycle, including a $20 million contribution to Public First Action focused on AI safety.
- Google’s backing of a Texas data-center project for Anthropic signals strong infrastructure demand and potential financing mechanisms that could accelerate AI deployment.
Anthropic’s political engagement and the policy context
The formation of AnthroPAC marks a notable step in how AI firms engage with lawmakers and regulators. By coordinating staff contributions through a dedicated PAC, Anthropic signals a structured approach to influencing elections and policy debates that shape the development and governance of artificial intelligence. The FEC filing describes AnthroPAC as a “connected organization” operating under a separate segregated fund, aligning with typical industry practices for corporate-employee political activity. While the stated aim is bipartisanship, the broader AI policy environment in the United States has become highly polarized, with differing views on liability, safety mandates, data privacy, and government access to AI systems.
Investors and builders watching the space can interpret this as part of a broader trend: major AI developers increasingly engage directly in policy conversations, seeking to frame the regulatory environment in ways that balance innovation with oversight. The implications extend beyond ethics and governance; policy direction can materially affect the regulatory runway for product development, procurement, and collaboration with public sector actors. The presence of a formal PAC also raises questions about how corporate political contributions could influence which AI-safety and governance proposals gain traction on Capitol Hill and in regulatory agencies.
Defense frictions and legal maneuvering
The tension between Anthropic and the Department of Defense centers on how the company’s models should be deployed in sensitive contexts. The Pentagon’s decision to label Anthropic as a supply chain risk stemmed from the company’s public stance against fully autonomous weapons and broad surveillance use. Anthropic has challenged that designation in court, arguing that it amounts to retaliation for a viewpoint it regards as legitimate and protected. A federal judge in California issued a temporary ruling to pause the measure and related restrictions while the case proceeds, illustrating the jurisdictional balance between corporate risk assessments and national-security considerations in AI technology usage.
For policymakers, the case underscores a core policy question: where should the line be drawn between compelling safety and preserving innovation? If courts narrow how procurement risk designations can be wielded, it could affect how similar technology providers are treated as the government expands its AI procurement and testing programs. Conversely, if the government can justify risk designations on safety grounds, it could strengthen leverage for tighter controls on how AI systems are used in defense contexts.
Political giving and AI-safety advocacy
Anthropic’s political activity isn’t limited to its new PAC. Earlier in the cycle, the company contributed a sizable $20 million to Public First Action, a political arm focused on AI safety and public-interest considerations tied to the development and governance of AI technologies. This level of funding signals a broader strategy to influence public discourse and regulatory design around AI, complementing the PAC’s electoral role with policy advocacy and education efforts. Observers are watching how such funding patterns translate into concrete policy outcomes, particularly in an environment where legislators are weighing landmark AI bills and safety standards that could shape model development, data usage, and transparency requirements.
Infrastructure bets amid AI acceleration
Infrastructure matters are increasingly central to AI strategy, and Google’s involvement in a Texas data-center project for Anthropic is a vivid illustration. The Nexus Data Centers-leased facility, if realized as outlined, could become a cornerstone asset to support large-scale model training and deployment. The project’s initial phase exceeding $5 billion underscores the capital intensity of modern AI initiatives and the financial orchestration that underpins them. Google’s expected role in providing construction loans, alongside competitive financing arrangements from banks, points to the consolidation of AI infrastructure finance as a distinct sub-market within the tech sector. For Anthropic and similar firms, such backing could shorten timelines to deploy more capable models and scale services that demand robust, energy-efficient, and highly reliable data-center capacity.
As policy debates progress, industry participants and investors should monitor both political and practical developments: how much traction new AI safety proposals gain in Congress, how procurement rules evolve in defense programs, and how infrastructure financing evolves to accommodate the next wave of AI workloads. Each of these strands will influence not only which AI products reach market first, but also how quickly the industry can translate research advances into real-world use cases across enterprise, healthcare, and public services.
Readers should stay attentive to any updates on Anthropic’s PAC activity and the Pentagon case outcomes, as both arenas will shape the company’s public-facing strategy and its broader partnerships. The balance between safety-driven governance and aggressive innovation remains a live tension set to define the next phase of AI adoption and investment.
Crypto World
Crypto Token Glut Is Diluting Value And Breaking Investor Returns
The rapid growth in the number of crypto tokens is outpacing the value they generate, creating an “existential” problem for the industry, according to Michael Ippolito, co-founder of Blockworks.
In a series of posts on X, Ippolito noted that while total crypto market capitalization remains relatively strong, the average value per token tells a different story. “The average coin is only slightly higher than where it was in 2020 (!) and down ~50% since 2021,” he wrote.
Median token returns have also deteriorated sharply. Most tokens are down roughly 80% from their highs, suggesting that gains have been concentrated in a narrow set of large-cap assets, while the broader market underperforms, Ippolito claimed.
He argued that the imbalance appears to be driven by a rapid expansion in token supply. “We created a TON of new assets and STILL total market cap is flat,” he wrote, adding that this dynamic effectively dilutes value across a growing pool of tokens.
Related: Bitcoin ‘done’ with 85% crashes, says Cathie Wood amid new $34K target
Token prices break from fundamentals
Ippolito also claimed that the relationship between fundamentals and price has weakened. In 2021, token prices closely tracked onchain revenue. Recent data shows that despite a resurgence in protocol revenues, prices have not followed, pointing to a disconnect between usage and investor returns.
He argued that this signals a loss of confidence in tokens as vehicles for capturing value. “The token problem is existential for this industry,” he said, adding that without stronger alignment between fundamentals and price, the sector risks losing its core appeal.
In a post on X, Arthur Cheong, founder and CEO of DeFiance Capital, said he agrees “with the urgency to fix the current situation of tokens in the crypto industry,” warning that if the market continues to concentrate around a small set of assets like Bitcoin and Ether, the broader crypto ecosystem risks losing relevance.
Related: Bitcoin shorts risk $2.5 billion liquidation at $72K: Are bears in danger?
Capital shifts from tokens to stocks
Investor demand is increasingly moving away from newly launched tokens toward publicly listed crypto firms, as most token launches fail to hold value, a February research from DWF Labs found. The report revealed that over 80% of projects trade below their token generation event (TGE) price, with typical losses of 50% to 70% within about three months.
The pattern appears structural rather than cyclical. According to DWF’s Andrei Grachev, most tokens peak within the first month before declining under sustained selling pressure. Factors such as airdrops and early investor unlocks add to the supply overhang, reinforcing downward price trends even for projects with active products or protocols.
Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author
Crypto World
Token supply surge leaves most crypto assets underwater
Crypto markets are facing renewed pressure as the number of tokens keeps rising faster than the value those assets create.
Summary
- Most crypto tokens trade far below prior highs as supply keeps rising across markets.
- New token launches keep growing, while value creation fails to support broader market pricing today.
- Investor demand is shifting toward crypto stocks as many token launches lose value quickly.
Market participants are now questioning whether token launches, supply schedules, and value capture models still support long-term investor interest across the wider sector.
Michael Ippolito, co-founder of Blockworks, said the crypto industry now faces an “existential” token problem as supply continues to expand. In a series of posts on X, he said total market capitalization has stayed relatively firm, but the average value of individual tokens has remained weak.
He wrote that “the average coin is only slightly higher than where it was in 2020” and is down about 50% from 2021 levels. He also said most tokens now trade roughly 80% below their peak prices, showing that gains have stayed concentrated in a small group of large-cap assets.
Ippolito also said token prices no longer move in line with protocol fundamentals as closely as they did in 2021. At that time, prices and onchain revenue often moved together. Recent data, however, shows that protocol revenues have recovered in many cases while token prices have not.
He said this gap points to weaker confidence in tokens as tools for capturing network value. According to him, “the token problem is existential for this industry,” as the market no longer rewards activity and revenue in the same way it did in earlier cycles.
Arthur Cheong, founder and chief executive of DeFiance Capital, agreed with the urgency of the issue. In a post on X, he said the market needs to address token structure problems before attention shifts even more toward a narrow group of assets such as Bitcoin and Ether.
That view adds to growing concern that smaller tokens may continue to lose relevance if investors keep focusing on a few dominant names. The trend has raised questions about whether the broader token market can still attract capital on a wide scale.
Investors Shift Focus to Crypto Stocks
A February report from DWF Labs said investor demand has increasingly moved from newly launched tokens to publicly listed crypto companies. The report found that more than 80% of projects trade below their token generation event price, with losses of 50% to 70% within about three months.
DWF Labs partner Andrei Grachev said most tokens reach their highest level within the first month after launch and then fall under steady selling pressure.
He said airdrops and early investor unlocks often add more supply to the market, making it harder for prices to hold even when projects remain active.
Crypto World
Rocket Lab (RKLB) vs AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): Top Space Stocks to Monitor in 2026
Quick Overview
- Rocket Lab achieved 38% revenue growth, reaching $601.8 million in 2025, backed by a $1.85 billion record backlog
- An $816 million Space Development Agency contract strengthened Rocket Lab’s position in government aerospace
- AST SpaceMobile generated $70.9 million in 2025 revenue as it continues early-stage commercial infrastructure development
- AST maintains over $3.9 billion in pro forma liquidity to support satellite constellation expansion
- Analyst consensus favors Rocket Lab with a Moderate Buy rating, while AST receives a Reduce rating
Among space sector equities, Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile stand out as two of the most discussed investment opportunities. However, these companies pursue fundamentally different strategies and carry distinct risk-reward profiles. One has established a diversified operational foundation. The other represents a transformative vision for global mobile connectivity.
Rocket Lab delivered impressive financial performance throughout 2025. The company recorded 38% year-over-year revenue expansion, totaling $601.8 million. Its fourth-quarter performance reached a milestone with $179.7 million in revenue. Perhaps most significantly, the firm concluded 2025 with a $1.85 billion backlog—a 73% increase from the previous year. This substantial order book provides greater revenue visibility than most competitors in the space industry can demonstrate.
The company’s revenue composition demonstrates meaningful diversification beyond launch services. Product sales generated $371.6 million during 2025, complemented by $230.2 million from service operations. Today’s Rocket Lab manufactures complete spacecraft, subsystems, and specialized components for defense and intelligence agencies.
Government Contract Wins Strengthen Rocket Lab’s Position
A significant milestone arrived when the company secured an $816 million agreement with the Space Development Agency. This substantial contract validates Rocket Lab’s capabilities for executing complex, multi-year government programs. Meanwhile, the Neutron medium-class launch vehicle represents management’s primary catalyst for the next phase of expansion.
Profitability remains elusive despite operational progress. Rocket Lab recorded a $198.2 million net loss for 2025. Leadership projected continued negative adjusted EBITDA for the opening quarter of 2026. Market valuations currently reflect anticipated future scale rather than present earnings performance.
AST SpaceMobile pursues an entirely different opportunity. The enterprise aims to deploy a satellite constellation providing cellular broadband connectivity directly to unmodified smartphones—eliminating requirements for specialized equipment. Successfully executing this vision at scale could unlock previously inaccessible market segments that conventional satellite providers cannot economically serve.
AST remains in the foundational stages of its mission. The company reported $70.9 million in total 2025 revenue. Fourth-quarter performance contributed $54.3 million, primarily from gateway equipment deliveries, mobile network operator partnerships, and government development milestones.
Strong Liquidity Position Supports AST SpaceMobile’s Deployment Plans
The company maintained $2.8 billion in cash and equivalents as of year-end 2025. Following additional capital raises completed in early 2026, pro forma liquidity exceeded $3.9 billion. This financial cushion enables continued satellite deployment without near-term funding pressures.
AST has secured more than $1.2 billion in contracted revenue commitments from strategic partners. For a company just beginning to recognize meaningful revenue, this represents substantial commercial validation. Nevertheless, significant losses continue, and ultimate success depends critically on deployment velocity and network performance metrics.
Analyst sentiment clearly distinguishes between the two opportunities. Rocket Lab earns a Moderate Buy consensus rating, comprising 2 Strong Buys, 7 Buys, 7 Holds, and 1 Sell recommendation. AST SpaceMobile receives a Reduce consensus, with 2 Buys, 6 Holds, and 3 Sells.
Final Thoughts
Investment community confidence runs higher for Rocket Lab’s proven business model. While acknowledging AST’s substantial upside potential, analysts find the opportunity more challenging to quantify at this development stage. Rocket Lab offers greater operational maturity, revenue diversification, and broader analytical support. AST represents a higher-risk proposition with correspondingly larger potential returns if its satellite broadband architecture achieves technical and commercial success.
Rocket Lab presents the more established investment thesis currently. AST SpaceMobile offers the more ambitious transformational opportunity. The appropriate choice depends entirely on individual investor risk tolerance and portfolio objectives.
Crypto World
UK Courts Anthropic After US Military Dispute Sparks Blacklist Concerns
TLDR
- The British government is actively pursuing Anthropic for expanded UK operations
- Offers include London headquarters expansion and dual stock exchange listing opportunities
- Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s administration is directly supporting the initiative
- Anthropic faced US blacklisting after declining to permit Claude for military surveillance or weaponized systems
- Federal courts have temporarily halted the blacklist enforcement, with additional legal challenges underway
British officials are making aggressive moves to attract Anthropic, the developer of the Claude AI assistant, as reported by the Financial Times. The UK sees a strategic opening to expand the company’s presence following escalating tensions between Anthropic and the Pentagon.
The British government’s pitch encompasses expanding Anthropic’s current London operations and facilitating a dual stock market listing. The UK’s Department of Science, Innovation and Technology is spearheading these initiatives.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s administration has thrown its weight behind the department’s outreach efforts. Officials plan to present these proposals directly to Anthropic’s Chief Executive Dario Amodei during his anticipated UK visit scheduled for late May.
Both Anthropic and the UK’s Department of Science, Innovation and Technology declined to provide statements when contacted by Reuters.
The Pentagon Dispute Explained
The Department of Defense labeled Anthropic as a national-security supply-chain threat. The designation stemmed from the company’s firm stance against permitting its Claude AI system to be deployed for US military surveillance operations or autonomous weaponry applications.
This classification resulted in Anthropic being added to a government blacklist. Such listings typically limit a company’s capacity to collaborate with federal agencies and approved contractors.
Anthropic mounted a swift legal response. A federal judge granted temporary relief, preventing the blacklist from becoming operational while litigation proceeds.
The AI company has simultaneously launched a separate legal challenge targeting the supply-chain threat classification itself. This additional lawsuit remains pending judicial review.
Britain’s Strategic Proposal
The UK’s aggressive courtship represents part of a wider strategy to capitalize on uncertainty surrounding American technology governance.
A dual stock listing arrangement would enable Anthropic shares to trade on British exchanges parallel to any potential US market debut. This structure would provide UK-based investors with immediate access to company equity.
Expanding the London facility would strengthen Anthropic’s European footprint significantly. Britain has cultivated a thriving AI ecosystem, with government officials making tech investment attraction a cornerstone policy objective.
The Financial Times report did not indicate whether Anthropic has shown interest in or rejected the British proposals.
Amodei’s late May UK visit is anticipated as the critical juncture when officials will formally present their complete package.
The temporary judicial stay on the blacklist designation leaves Anthropic’s regulatory status in flux. The resolution of both ongoing legal battles will probably determine the company’s strategic direction going forward.
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