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Fed’s Goolsbee calls for a hold on cuts as current rate of inflation is ‘not good enough’

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Fed Gov. Waller: Supreme Court ruling on tariffs may have positive impact on spending, investment

Austan Goolsbee, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, speaks during the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) economic policy conference in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026.

Graeme Sloane | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday that interest rate cuts aren’t appropriate until there’s more evidence that inflation is on its way down.

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With recent indicators showing that inflation well off its highs but still above the Fed’s 2% target, Goolsbee noted that policymakers “have been burned by assuming transitory inflation” in the past and shouldn’t make the same mistake again.

“I feel that front-loading too many rate cuts is not prudent in that circumstance,” he said in remarks before the National Association for Business Economics at its annual gathering in Washington, D.C. “People express that prices are one of their most pressing concerns. Let’s pay attention. Before we cut rates more to stimulate the economy, let’s be sure inflation is heading back to 2%.”

The most recent inflation data, for December, showed core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, running at 3%, as measured by the consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary forecasting gauge. That was up 0.2 percentage point from November and came somewhat due to tariffs, which are viewed as temporary, but also from underlying pressures in the service sector and areas not directly impacted by the duties.

Specifically, Goolsbee said stubbornly high housing inflation isn’t tariff driven, emphasizing the need for the Fed to be “vigilant.”

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Goolsbee noted that a 3% inflation rate “is not good enough — and it’s not what we promised when the Federal Reserve committed to the 2% target. Stalling out at 3% is not a safe place to be for a myriad of reasons we know all too well.” He has said previously that he thinks the Fed will be able to cut later in the year.

The remarks come with markets expecting the Federal Open Market Committee, of which Goolsbee is a voter this year, to stay on hold until at least June and probably July. Futures traders are placing about a 50-50 chance of a cut in June and about a 71% probability of a July cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge. The Fed enacted three quarter-percentage-point cuts in the latter part of 2025.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who has been an advocate for lower rates, took a more measured approach Monday while also speaking to the NABE conference.

Though Waller said he thinks policymakers should “look through” tariff impacts, he said recent data show the labor market may be in better shape than previously indicated, mitigating the need for further cuts. If the jobs picture continues to improve, that would further lessen the case for cuts, though he said he isn’t convinced that the January nonfarm payrolls data wasn’t “more noise than signal.”

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Tuesday will be an active day Fed speakers, with Governor Lisa Cook also due to present to the NABE later in the morning.

Fed Gov. Waller: Supreme Court ruling on tariffs may have positive impact on spending, investment

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Crypto World

Argentina Blocks Polymarket as Crackdown on Prediction Markets Expands

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Crypto Breaking News

Court Orders Remedial Reflex

In Buenos Aires, a court directed regulators to impose tight controls of access. The telecom regulator ENACOM also liaised with the internet companies to shut down the site. Google and Apple were also asked to take the app out of their stores. The reason why these actions are taken is to restrict access to the users in the country.

This has caused regulators to tighten their belts due to apprehension caused by activity associated with inflation data. It was reported that the platform made predictions of Argentina’s inflation rate in February before it was officially released. Besides, authorities reported that the prediction was altered minutes before publishing. This chain of events triggered the need to further research how the platform functions.

Researchers came to the conclusion that the platform served as a web-based betting platform. Regulators also said it enabled the users to participate in wagering without licenses. Also regulators were worried about access by minors. These results resulted in even tougher steps to be taken against the platform.

Latin America’s Crackdown Continues

The move is in line with other actions taken by Colombia. Polymarket was later blocked in the country due to similar complaints raised against unlicensed gambling services. Therefore, Argentina became the second country to ban the platform in the region. Such a trend underscores the developing regional integration in the area of regulatory enforcement.

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Regulatory examination does not just end at Latin America; it extends to other markets. It has been reported that websites like Kalshi have been involved in court cases in the United States due to allegations of unregulated betting services. It has also been reported that unpaid wagers have been involved in cases of dispute that are associated with geopolitical activities. Regulators and legal authorities have paid more attention to such developments.

Polymarket has also addressed criticism by eliminating some of the markets. Additionally, the site has recently shut down a market for nuclear risk forecasts after being pressured by the publicity. More so, the shutdown was done through the high geopolitical tensions. This is in response to efforts to deal with concerns as the regulatory pressure persists. Argentina has imposed a nationwide ban on Polymarket following the discovery of unlicensed betting operations and a ban on platforms. The relocation is in line with the larger international desire to control prediction market sites and restrict illegal gambling solutions.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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US Lawmakers Introduce Bill to Crack Down on Prediction Markets War Bets

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Law, Congress, United States, Prediction Markets

Two Democratic lawmakers in the US Congress have introduced legislation in response to “government corruption” over bets on prediction markets platforms.

In a Tuesday announcement, Texas Representative Greg Casar and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy said they had introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and ​Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act after several Polymarket accounts made “highly unusual bets” that a war between the US and Israel against Iran would begin.

Murphy said on March 4 that it was likely that people with “inside information” of US President Donald Trump’s plan to bomb Iran had made the bets.

“We shouldn’t live in a country where someone sitting in the situation room making decisions about whether to invade or to bomb, decisions about war and peace, life and death, that those decisions could be driven by the fact that they have hundreds of thousands of dollars riding on the decision,” said Casar.

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Law, Congress, United States, Prediction Markets
Source: Representative Greg Casar

The bill is the latest twist in US lawmakers’ efforts to crack down on prediction market platforms and accounts allegedly using insider information to profit from government actions. Last week, California Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act to prevent prediction markets platforms from listing events contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination and individual deaths.

Related: Arizona AG files charges against Kalshi over ‘illegal gambling‘

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi offer bets on a variety of outcomes, including sporting events and US politics. However, users betting on the specifics of the US-Israel conflict with Iran have ignited controversy in many areas of government. On Monday, a military correspondent with the Times of Israel said that he had received death threats over his report of the date when an Iranian missile had struck Israel, all “in order to resolve a prediction on Polymarket.”

War-related bets still live on Polymarket

As of Tuesday, Polymarket still offered users the opportunity to place bets on the outcomes of several potential decisions in the US-Israel conflict against Iran, including on whether the US would send ground forces into the country, when a ceasefire might happen, and changes to Iranian leadership.

“The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society,” said Polymarket in a note on Middle East markets. “That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and [X, formerly Twitter] could not.”

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Kalshi, in contrast, offered event contracts related to the Iranian conflict but not on specific military actions, such as if the country might reach a nuclear deal with the US and whether Trump or other elected officials might visit Iran.

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