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Fellowship PAC Begins Backing GOP Ahead of 2026 Vote

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Fellowship reported a $300,000 advertising expense for a Georgia congressional race.
  • The PAC endorsed Republican candidates in five states through posts on X.
  • Fellowship claims over $100 million from crypto-aligned backers.
  • Jesse Spiro of Tether chairs the super PAC.
  • The Senate Banking Committee has not scheduled a markup for the CLARITY Act.

Fellowship, a crypto-aligned super PAC, has started reporting spending and endorsements ahead of the 2026 US midterms. The group disclosed a $300,000 advertising expense and named several Republican candidates across five states. Its actions follow a filing with the Federal Election Commission and public posts on X.

Fellowship Reports $300,000 Ad Spend and Backs GOP Candidates

Fellowship reported spending $300,000 on advertising for Clay Fuller in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District. The filing showed the disbursement occurred on Tuesday, about a month before the May 19 Republican primary. Fuller won a special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene after her resignation. The Federal Election Commission requires super PACs to disclose independent expenditures. The agency states that super PACs may “receive unlimited contributions from individuals, corporations, labor unions and other PACs.”

The group also posted endorsements on X for Republican candidates in five states. It backed Alan Wilson for South Carolina governor and Blake Miguez for Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District. It supported Mike Collins for the US Senate in Georgia and Julia Letlow for the US Senate in Louisiana. It also endorsed Pete Ricketts for the US Senate in Nebraska and Nate Morris for the US Senate in Kentucky. These announcements marked the PAC’s first public endorsements since its 2025 statement of organization.

Crypto Funding Expands Political Activity Before 2026 Midterms

Fellowship announced its launch in September and claimed more than $100 million in funding. The group said undisclosed backers aligned with the crypto industry provided the funds. On April 1, it named Jesse Spiro, head of government affairs at Tether, as chair. The announcement signaled support for candidates with pro-crypto positions. However, the PAC has reported only one expenditure so far.

Crypto-backed political committees increased activity during recent election cycles. In 2024, Fairshake spent over $130 million on media buys in congressional races. Public records show the spending targeted competitive contests, including the US Senate race in Ohio. Federal filings indicate that super PACs operate independently from candidates and campaigns. They may raise and spend unlimited sums on independent political activity under federal rules.

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Lawmakers continue to debate federal crypto legislation as PAC activity grows. The US House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act in July. However, the Senate has delayed action on the bill and has not scheduled a floor vote. Reports indicated that the Senate Banking Committee planned a markup, yet the event did not appear on its calendar. The bill would address regulations affecting crypto markets and banking sectors.

The CLARITY Act has faced questions related to ethics standards and stablecoin yield provisions. Lawmakers have also raised issues concerning tokenized equities and other regulatory details. The Senate Banking Committee must review the bill before any full Senate vote. As of Monday, the committee had not confirmed a markup date.

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SEC Issues Framework for Crypto Trading Apps and Brokers

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • SEC staff issued conditional guidance for crypto trading apps on April 13.
  • Platforms must act as neutral tools and avoid executing or advising on trades.
  • The framework requires clear fee structures and conflict disclosures.
  • The staff position will expire in five years unless replaced.
  • The SEC is advancing the proposed Reg Crypto framework under federal review.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has outlined conditions that allow certain crypto trading apps to operate without broker registration. The agency’s Division of Trading and Markets issued a staff statement on April 13. The guidance defines when platforms may function as neutral tools instead of regulated intermediaries.

SEC Defines Limits for Crypto Trading Apps Under Broker Rules

The SEC staff said “Covered User Interface Providers” may avoid broker-dealer registration if they act as neutral interfaces. They must not recommend trades or provide investment advice. They must not promote specific tokens or trading routes. Instead, they must rely on objective criteria such as price or speed when displaying options.

The staff also barred providers from executing trades or handling customer assets. They cannot negotiate transactions or structure deals on behalf of users. The statement said such activities would trigger broker status under federal securities law. Therefore, platforms must restrict their role to displaying information and routing user instructions.

The guidance requires consistent and transparent fees across assets and execution paths. Providers cannot adjust fees based on selected tokens or venues. If a platform maintains ties to a trading venue, it must disclose that relationship clearly. It must also treat affiliated and non-affiliated venues in a fair manner.

The staff imposed strict disclosure standards on covered providers. Platforms must disclose their non-registered status and explain how their systems function. They must outline fee models, conflicts of interest, and cybersecurity controls. They must also describe technical limits and risks tied to the interface.

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The statement clarified that it reflects staff enforcement views, not binding law. However, it signals how the SEC may approach enforcement during the next five years. The framework will sunset after five years unless the agency replaces it. Until then, firms may rely on this conditional no-action position.

SEC Advances Reg Crypto Proposal for Token Offerings

The SEC is also advancing a broader “Reg Crypto” framework under Chair Paul Atkins. The proposal is currently under review by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. It seeks to update rules governing token fundraising and decentralized finance activities.

Under the draft plan, early-stage crypto startups may receive limited exemptions. The framework would allow structured token offerings under the Securities Act of 1933. It would also create a safe harbor pathway for tokens that transition out of securities status. The SEC aims to clarify when digital assets no longer qualify as securities.

The proposal also calls for coordination with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The SEC plans to align oversight standards across agencies. The agency seeks to streamline compliance for token issuers and trading platforms. Officials have not yet released a final timeline for adoption.

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Chair Atkins has stated that the agency wants clearer boundaries for digital asset markets. The SEC continues to review public input on the Reg Crypto framework. The proposal remains under federal review as of April 13. Further updates will follow once OIRA completes its assessment.

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Trump eyes power grids and water

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Hegseth Fires Army Chief of Staff After Political Promotions

The Iran escalation threat that legal experts have called a potential war crime is back on the table Monday as Trump’s naval blockade goes live and his earlier threats to destroy Iran’s power plants, bridges, and water desalination facilities remain publicly unretracted, with oil markets already pricing in the worst-case scenario for civilian infrastructure strikes.

Summary

  • Trump threatened in an expletive-laden April 5 Truth Social post to make “Tuesday Power Plant Day and Bridge Day” in Iran, warning that Iranians would be “living in Hell” if the Strait was not reopened by his deadline; the ceasefire announced April 7 temporarily shelved the threat, but the Islamabad collapse and Monday’s blockade have returned the escalation question to the center of the conflict.
  • Legal experts told PBS that targeting power plants and bridges serving civilian populations constitutes “collective punishment” and an “indiscriminate attack” under the laws of war, which are binding on US military personnel regardless of presidential direction; Iran’s military command warned in response that any strikes on civilian targets would produce “much more devastating and widespread” retaliation.
  • Iran’s water desalination infrastructure is not a theoretical target: Kuwait reported that Iranian drone attacks put one of its own water desalination stations offline during the conflict, demonstrating that both sides have already struck civilian-adjacent infrastructure and that the escalation risk runs in both directions.

As CNBC reported Monday, the blockade itself has already reignited market fears beyond just the oil price reaction, with analysts warning that Hormuz closure combined with infrastructure strikes could send Brent crude toward $150 per barrel. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters the administration “will always act within the confines of the law,” without addressing the specific legal concerns raised about power plant and water infrastructure targeting. Annie Shiel, US Director at Center for Civilians in Conflict, called Trump’s earlier threats “appalling,” saying: “President Trump is threatening to destroy infrastructure that is essential for civilian survival.”

The threat creates a risk calculation for oil markets that goes beyond the current blockade price. A strike on Iranian power infrastructure would likely trigger retaliatory strikes on Gulf Arab energy facilities, several of which Iran has already targeted during the conflict, and would pull China, India, and allied nations more directly into the confrontation.

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Power plant and bridge strikes inside Iran would represent a qualitative escalation beyond anything the US and Israel have struck so far in the conflict. Iranian power infrastructure is shared between military and civilian uses, which is precisely why legal experts say individual target-by-target analysis is required before any strike can be lawful under the laws of war. A blanket threat to take out all power plants, as Trump’s Truth Social post implied, would not meet that standard, according to retired Lieutenant Colonel Rachel VanLandingham, who called it a threat of “indiscriminate attack” on PBS.

What Iran Has Said It Would Do in Response

Iran’s central military command stated publicly that attacks on civilian targets would produce retaliation “much more devastating and widespread” than anything seen so far in the conflict. Iran still has functioning drone and missile capacity, Gulf Arab energy facilities remain within range, and Houthi forces in Yemen have the capability to resume attacks on Red Sea shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Any combination of those responses would add a new energy supply shock on top of the Hormuz disruption already in the market.

Why Markets Are Watching the April 22 Ceasefire Expiry as the Key Trigger Date

The ceasefire that temporarily shelved the power plant threat expires April 22. If talks do not resume and the blockade intensifies without a diplomatic off-ramp, the infrastructure threat becomes the next available escalation lever. Markets have priced in conflict continuation but have not yet priced in bilateral civilian infrastructure strikes at scale. The gap between current oil pricing around $103 and the $150 estimate for a full blockade plus infrastructure escalation is the market risk that the coming nine days will either resolve or crystallize.

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Bitcoin Hits $74,000 As ETF Inflows Face Miner Selling And War Tensions

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Bitcoin Hits $74,000 As ETF Inflows Face Miner Selling And War Tensions

Key takeaways:

  • Despite strong ETF inflows, Bitcoin remains tied to the S&P 500 and sensitive to global macroeconomic developments.

  • Bitcoin futures premiums and miner selling suggest that the bear market persists despite Bitcoin trading above $74,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $74,000 level on Monday following slight gains in the S&P 500 index after US President Donald Trump ordered a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Traders appear to be gradually gaining confidence following strong net inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and continued accumulation by Strategy (MSTR US) but is the bear market over?

US-listed Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue

The US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $615 million in net inflows between Thursday and Friday, reversing the trend from the previous two days. In parallel, Strategy announced it had acquired 13,927 BTC over the past week. The $1 billion in purchases were funded through its yield-bearing instrument, Stretch (STRC US).

S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

Despite growing demand from institutional investors, Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the S&P 500 and the broader macroeconomic movements of the US economy. Bitcoin dropped to $70,500 over the weekend after the failed US-Iran ceasefire negotiations. However, Brent crude oil prices eventually retreated to $99 on Monday, paving the way for gains in risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Bitcoin displayed strength at $74,000, but derivatives metrics have yet to flip bullish.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: laevitas

Bitcoin monthly futures traded at a 2% annualized premium relative to regular spot markets, indicating a lack of demand for bullish leverage. Under neutral conditions, the indicator should hold between 4% and 8% to compensate for the cost of capital. Regardless of performance over the past couple of weeks, Bitcoin is down 18% in 2026, while the S&P 500 remains relatively flat year-to-date.

Regulatory clarity may back Bitcoin’s rally

While it is impossible to pinpoint the rationale for the sharp Bitcoin correction in late January, the lack of support from US lawmakers regarding the regulatory landscape likely played an important role. US Senator Cynthia Lummis has urged her colleagues to approve the CLARITY Act, which could define how stablecoin issuers operate and establish thresholds for tokens to be deemed decentralized.

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The bill is currently facing a critical window in the Senate Banking Committee. Major exchanges have recently voiced concerns about late-stage additions to decentralized finance (DeFi) restrictions and the exact scope of tokenized assets. US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins has also stated that “it is time” for Congress to advance with the regulation.

USD stablecoin premium/discount relative to USD/CNY rate. Source: OKX

USD stablecoins traded at a 0.4% discount to the official US dollar-to-yuan exchange rate on Monday, a typical sign of excessive demand to exit cryptocurrency markets. Balanced demand usually results in a 0.5% to 1.5% premium to compensate for the costs of traditional FX remittance and the regulatory friction caused by China’s capital controls.

Related: How Bitcoin and gold reacted differently to the Iran war shock

Bitcoin miners’ sell pressure, US macroeconomic uncertainty

Given the strong correlation with traditional markets and weak derivatives metrics, there is no basis to claim that Bitcoin’s bear market is over based solely on ETF inflows and accumulation from a handful of companies, especially as publicly listed miners have recently reduced their positions

MARA Holdings (MARA US) sold 15,133 BTC, while Riot Platforms (RIOT US) reduced its exposure by 2,325 BTC and Cango (CANG US) sold 2,000 BTC in the past 30 days.

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For now, Bitcoin’s path to $80,000 is largely dependent on a more favorable risk perception, although short-term momentum relies mostly on the status of the US and Israel-Iran War.