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Global M&A stays strong in 2026 despite tightest capital squeeze in 30 years

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A Goldman Sachs logo is displayed on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, on Wednesday, August 11, 2010.

Ramin Talaie | Corbis Historical | Getty Images

The global mergers and acquisitions boom that defined 2025 is carrying into 2026, as companies reassess their portfolios and artificial intelligence-led demand fuels large-scale transactions. However, a tightening capital pool is forcing executives to be more selective than ever.

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Despite a sluggish start as Trump’s sweeping tariffs early last year briefly scuttled acquisitions and new public listings, the total value of deal-making activity surged 40% to $4.9 trillion in 2025, according to Bain & Company’s annual M&A report.

That marked the second-highest level on record, trailing only the $5.6 trillion peak in 2021, when low borrowing costs and buoyant equity markets propelled a historic dealmaking frenzy.

Dealmaking activity last year rebounded as central banks cut interest rates, valuations improved and companies increased spending on artificial intelligence.

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Markets are betting that the surge will continue, as Wall Street regains its appetite for large deals amid the prospect of lower borrowing costs.

A Bain survey of 300 M&A executives found that 80% expect to sustain or increase deal activity this year, citing improved macroeconomic conditions and a growing backlog of private equity and venture capital assets awaiting exit.

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As abrupt shifts in trade policies settled into a pattern of less threatening change, relief turned into confidence and then a fear of missing out.

Jake Henry

Global co-leader, McKinsey’s M&A Practice.

Goldman Sachs, drawing on its own poll of 600 corporate and financial sponsor clients, found that 57% believe scale and strategic growth will be the primary driver of deal decisions this year.

“As abrupt shifts in trade policies settled into a pattern of less threatening change, relief turned into confidence and then a fear of missing out,” said Jake Henry, global coleader of McKinsey’s M&A Practice.

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Central to the shift is a decisive push by companies to reassess their portfolios, as geopolitical risks, economic fragmentation and uneven global growth force boards to reconsider where they operate and the risks they are willing to take.

“Leaders across industries recognize that many traditional business models have reached the limits of their historical growth engines,” said Suzanne Kumar, executive vice president of Bain’s global M&A and divestiture practice.

“Companies urgently need to reinvent themselves to get out ahead of the big forces of technology disruption, a post-globalization economy, and shifting profit pools,” Kumar added.

Goldman Sachs Int'l Co-CEO: Volatility is new normal, clients are used to it

Goldman topped the global M&A ranking last year, advising on nearly 40 deals worth $1.48 trillion in total volume. It marked the strongest period for mega-deals by volume, according to Reuters, citing LSEG records dating back to 1980.

Still, companies remain cautious. Boston Consulting Group’s M&A sentiment index rebounded to 75 from its low in late 2022 — but still remained well below the long-term average of 100, reflecting “an improving but cautious stance.” A higher value than the prior month indicates that M&A market momentum is accelerating, while a lower value suggests a deceleration.

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Tightest funding squeeze in decades

While the appetite for deals remains strong, the pool of discretionary capital to fund them is historically thin, forcing executives to pursue only transactions that deliver clear returns.

The proportion of capital allocated to M&A hit a 30-year low in 2025, according to Bain, as companies directed more cash towards dividends, buybacks, capital expenditures as well as research and development.

“Executives must pressure test whether M&A pathways and specific deals will help the company better compete in the most attractive markets … rethink portfolio boundaries, and make bigger, bolder decisions about what capabilities they must own vs. access,” said Kumar.

2026 will be a ‘very good year’ for M&A, says Citizens Commercial Bank’s Mark Lehmann

AI capital expenditure ‘supercycle’

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“We expect more big deals in 2026, with continued consolidation and geographic expansion,” Henry said, with AI-related service providers fueling “big-deal fever” this year.

However, the heavy capital spending in AI could constrain M&A activity in the near term, Brian Levy, global deals industries leader at PwC, said.

As AI adoption accelerates, demand for computing power has surged across digital infrastructure, energy, semiconductors, and hardware optimization. In response, many companies are opting to acquire rather than build across the technology stack.

Between the first quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of last year, U.S. hyperscalers’ capital expenditures averaged $760 million per day, according to Goldman Sachs.

The Wall Street bank estimates that by 2030, another 65 gigawatts of data center capacity will come online — more than double the amount added from 2019 to 2024.

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“Investment in AI is being directed towards data centres, energy, and other infrastructure as well as technology development and customisation,” Levy said.

“In the near term, the scale of this multitrillion-dollar investment may divert capital and temper M&A activity.”

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Crypto World

Bitcoin price prediction as Coinbase Premium flips positive

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Bitcoin price prediction as Coinbase BTC Premium flips positive for the first time in 40 days - 1

Bitcoin price is attempting a recovery near $65,000 as the Coinbase Premium turns positive despite recent exchange-traded fund outflows.

Summary

  • Bitcoin price prediction leans towards trend reversal as the Coinbase Premium flips positive.
  • The metric indicates strong U.S. demand returning after recent ETF outflows.
  • Price must reclaim key resistance to confirm a stronger recovery.

Bitcoin was trading at $65,907 at press time, up 3.4% in the last 24 hours. The move follows a drop to $62,900 within the past week, where buyers stepped in.

Even with the bounce, Bitcoin (BTC) is still down 24% over the past month and about 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,050.

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Trading activity increased during the recovery. Spot volume reached $46 billion, up 22% day over day. In derivatives markets, CoinGlass data shows futures volume up 6.2% to $74.8 billion, while open interest slipped 0.1% to $43.9 billion.

This suggests some traders are closing positions rather than adding aggressive leverage.

Coinbase premium turns positive 

On Feb. 25, the Coinbase Premium Index turned positive for the first time in 40 days, hitting 0.0525%, according to CoinGlass.

The index measures the price difference between Coinbase and global exchanges. A positive reading means Bitcoin trades slightly higher on Coinbase, which often reflects stronger U.S. demand.

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This shift comes at a time when U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded heavy outflows, with roughly $3.8 billion exiting recently. That contrast is important. While ETFs have seen capital leave, the premium suggests some U.S. buyers are stepping back in through exchange flows.

In past cycles, sustained positive premiums have aligned with accumulation phases and relief rallies. However, a single flip does not confirm a trend change. Traders will watch if the premium widens and holds over several sessions.

Bitcoin price prediction: Is the trend reversing?

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after a sharp corrective phase. On the daily chart, price is still trading below its short-term trend pivot near the mid-Bollinger band around the high -$67,000 area.

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That zone now acts as the line that separates a relief bounce from a stronger recovery attempt.

Bitcoin price prediction as Coinbase BTC Premium flips positive for the first time in 40 days - 1
Bitcoin daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

Momentum indicators show improvement from oversold conditions, with the relative strength index climbing from sub-30 levels earlier in February. Bulls have not yet completely taken back control, though, as the RSI is still below the midpoint. 

The recovery might reach the low -$70,000 area if the Coinbase Premium holds positive and Bitcoin breaks through the mid-band resistance with growing spot volume. A move into that zone would shift short-term structure and increase confidence that the trend has reversed.

On the other hand, failure to reclaim resistance would keep the price vulnerable to another pullback toward the mid -$64,000 area. A break below that support would raise the risk of a deeper move toward $60,000.

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Binance Revives Tokenized Equities in Ondo Finance Deal

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR

  • Binance has relaunched tokenized stocks trading through a partnership with Ondo Finance on Binance Alpha.
  • The platform lists 10 tokenized U.S. stocks, ETFs, and commodity-linked products.
  • Users in the United States cannot access the new tokenized stock offerings.
  • Binance previously halted a similar service in 2021 after regulatory scrutiny in Europe.
  • Ondo Finance has recorded over $550 million in locked value and $11 billion in cumulative trading volume since September 2025.

Binance has relaunched tokenized stocks trading through a new partnership with Ondo Finance. The exchange will list 10 tokenized U.S. stocks, ETFs, and commodity-linked products on Binance Alpha. The move marks Binance’s return to this market nearly five years after halting a similar service.

Binance and Ondo Finance Launch Tokenized Equities on Alpha

Binance has partnered with Ondo Finance to introduce tokenized versions of major U.S. equities on Binance Alpha. The platform operates within Binance Wallet and targets early-stage digital asset offerings. Users can trade blockchain-based versions of Apple, Google, Tesla, and Nvidia shares.

The lineup also includes the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq index. Binance confirmed that users in the United States cannot access these tokenized stocks. Jeff Li, Binance’s vice president of product, said, “Our users now have even more convenient ways to explore and trade tokenized stocks.”

Binance Alpha allows access to projects before they reach the centralized spot marketplace. The company positions the platform as a gateway for higher-risk digital assets. Through this structure, Binance expands product access while keeping trading within its wallet ecosystem.

Ondo Finance issues the tokenized equities listed on the platform. The company focuses on bridging traditional financial assets with blockchain networks. Binance integrates these tokens directly into its wallet infrastructure.

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Binance previously launched tokenized stocks in April 2021, starting with Tesla shares. The exchange later added Coinbase, Strategy, Microsoft, and Apple to the offering. However, regulators in the United Kingdom and Germany raised compliance concerns.

The U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority and Germany’s BaFin reviewed the product structure. Following regulatory scrutiny, Binance discontinued the service within months. The company has now resumed tokenized equities through its collaboration with Ondo Finance.

Last month, Binance stated that it was considering a renewed push into tokenized equities. The latest listings on Binance Alpha confirm that plan. The rollout follows growing activity in blockchain-based stock trading platforms.

Tokenized Stocks Market Expands Across Exchanges

Tokenized stocks have grown across crypto exchanges and traditional brokerages. The sector’s total value approaches $1 billion, according to recent market data. Ondo Finance reports more than $550 million in locked value.

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The company also recorded $11 billion in cumulative trading volume since September 2025. Other exchanges, including Kraken, Bybit, and Gemini, have introduced similar products. Robinhood has also launched tokenized equity trading services.

Traditional exchanges have also outlined plans involving stock tokens. Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange have presented proposals tied to blockchain-based trading models. These developments align with Binance’s renewed entry into tokenized equities through Ondo Finance.

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Bitcoin Depot Introduces ID for All Transactions

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Bitcoin Depot Introduces ID for All Transactions

The biggest Bitcoin ATM operator in the US has begun phasing in a new requirement for users to provide identification for every transaction at its crypto ATMs amid increasing pressure from regulators and lawmakers for operators to curb illicit activity.

Bitcoin Depot said on Tuesday that it began the rollout earlier in February across the company’s US network ATMs, with the goal of helping to detect suspicious activity in real time and eliminate misuse by bad actors, such as account sharing, identity theft, and account takeover.

“Continuous verification allows us to detect suspicious activity based on customers, locations, or transaction amount before a transaction is approved,” Bitcoin Depot CEO Scott Buchanan said in a statement.

Bitcoin Depot implemented ID requirements in October, but only for all new users to its service. Buchanan said that “by requiring identity verification at every transaction, we are taking an additional step to strengthen security, protect customers, and maintain the integrity of our services.”

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The US is the largest hub for Bitcoin (BTC) ATMs, with Coin ATM Radar listing 31,360 machines, accounting for 78% of the worldwide total. Bitcoin Depot is the market leader in the country with 9,019 kiosks.

Bitcoin Depot operates the largest number of Bitcoin ATMs in the US. Source: Coin ATM Radar

Bitcoin Depot faces state-level lawsuits

Scammers have long used crypto ATMs as a way to receive funds from unwitting victims, as the kiosks are widespread and their transactions are irreversible, leading regulators and lawmakers to crack down on crypto ATM operators.

The advocacy organisation, the American Association of Retired Persons, reported in February that 17 US states have passed laws requiring crypto ATM operators to implement protections, including daily transaction limits, fraud warning signs, and licensing requirements.

Related: Crypto ATM limits and bans sweep across US: Here’s why

Bitcoin Depot has caught the ire of state regulators, as Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell sued Bitcoin Depot earlier this month, alleging the company has not implemented sufficient safeguards to prevent scams. Campbell is seeking a court order to bar Bitcoin Depot from processing large transactions without additional user protections.

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