Key Takeaways

• BNB serves multiple functions including trading fee reductions, staking rewards, DeFi applications, gaming utilities, and payment solutions within Binance’s infrastructure
• Regular token burn events each quarter progressively decrease BNB’s circulating supply, aiming to halve the total from 200 million down to 100 million coins
• Conservative projections for 2031 place BNB between $1,200–$1,800, assuming steady market conditions without major disruptions
• Optimistic scenarios suggest $2,500–$4,000 valuations if BNB Chain gains widespread adoption and institutional interest accelerates
• Regulatory challenges pose the greatest threat, with pessimistic forecasts estimating $400–$600 price levels

Binance Coin has consistently ranked among the strongest-performing major cryptocurrencies in recent years. Projecting its value through 2031 requires examining several critical variables.

BNB maintains an intrinsic connection to the Binance platform. Countless traders hold the token to benefit from reduced transaction fees, participate in initial exchange offerings, cover network fees on BNB Chain, and utilize various Binance services.

This practical use case provides BNB with tangible value that distinguishes it from purely speculative digital assets.

Additionally, Binance implements a systematic quarterly burn mechanism. Every three months, a portion of tokens gets permanently eliminated from the available supply. The ultimate objective is reducing total token count by 50% — decreasing from 200 million to 100 million BNB.

This deflationary mechanism, combined with sustained market demand, forms the foundation of BNB’s long-term valuation thesis.

Moderate Scenario: $1,200 to $1,800

The most probable outcome for 2031 positions BNB trading within the $1,200 to $1,800 corridor. This forecast presumes Binance maintains its position among leading cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide while digital asset adoption continues expanding at moderate rates.

This valuation bracket corresponds to a market capitalization ranging from approximately $180 billion to $270 billion. Considering the trajectory of cryptocurrency markets, these figures remain achievable.

This scenario doesn’t demand extraordinary developments. It simply requires consistent user base expansion and ongoing supply reduction through burns.

Optimistic Scenario: $2,500 to $4,000

Under favorable conditions, BNB could climb to anywhere between $2,500 and $4,000. This projection assumes heightened institutional participation in cryptocurrency markets, BNB Chain establishing itself as a dominant infrastructure for decentralized applications and commerce, and continued aggressive token burning.

Such pricing would translate to market capitalization between $375 billion and $600 billion. While substantial, these figures don’t necessitate BNB surpassing Bitcoin or Ethereum in total value.

Primary Concern: Regulatory Pressure

BNB lacks the decentralized structure characteristic of Bitcoin. Its fortunes remain tightly bound to Binance’s corporate operations.

Should regulatory authorities impose restrictions on Binance across significant jurisdictions, exchange activity could decline substantially, pulling BNB demand downward correspondingly.

In a pessimistic scenario, BNB might trade between $400 and $600 by 2031.

The probability-adjusted price projection from this assessment centers around $1,650 for 2031. BNB’s future valuation depends more heavily on Binance’s operational success than on market speculation alone.

Coinbase and OKX are trying to win European crypto users after Binance moved to suspend several services in the European Union. The shift comes before the July 1 MiCA deadline, when crypto firms must hold approval from one EU state to keep serving the bloc.

The campaigns add a commercial race to a regulatory deadline. Binance has told users that access to some services will change because it has not secured a MiCA license in time.

Rivals move with transfer offers

As reported, Coinbase is using the opening to court users in Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Sweden and the U.K. The exchange says it holds MiCA approval and is offering a “5% transfer bonus” for users who move funds before July 13.

The offer puts Coinbase’s regulated status at the center of its pitch. It also gives affected users a time-limited reason to move funds before Binance fully adjusts its European services.

OKX has launched a similar push for eligible users in the European Economic Area. The exchange is offering welcome rewards and “deposit matching of up to 8%” as it promotes itself as a licensed platform for long-term access in Europe.

OKX Europe General Manager Erald Ghoos said the exchange saw record new customer sign-ups ahead of the MiCA transition deadline. The rise suggests some users are already moving before the new rules take full effect.

Binance keeps withdrawal access open

Binance has said it will restrict new registrations and certain services in the EU after missing the licensing deadline. The exchange has also told users that their assets “remain accessible at all times.”

The company withdrew its Greek MiCA application and said it would seek approval in another EU country. Binance also said its European goals “remain the same” and that it expects to secure a license in the coming months.

As previously reported, Binance had already been exploring another EU approval route before the cutoff. Reports said regulators had raised concerns tied to compliance history, corporate structure and executive oversight.

The service pause does not mean a full exit from Europe. It means Binance cannot keep offering the same range of services to EU users without MiCA approval after the transition period ends.

MiCA changes Europe’s exchange market

MiCA creates one rulebook for crypto service providers across the EU. From July 1, firms without approval must stop serving EU users or manage an orderly wind-down.

The rule gives licensed exchanges a clear marketing edge. Coinbase, OKX, Kraken and other approved firms can present themselves as stable routes for users who want to keep trading under EU rules.

Customers now have to check eligibility, fees, asset support and local rules before transferring assets. Campaign rewards can lower moving costs, but users still need to compare custody, trading pairs and withdrawal terms.

Data shared by OKX Europe earlier showed many European crypto users were still using unlicensed exchanges weeks before the deadline. That created a large pool of users who may need to review their platform choices.

Coinbase’s Base layer-2 network faced two block production outages last week, and a post-mortem published by the Base engineering team attributes both incidents to a bug in the chain’s sequencer block-building logic.

According to the report, the problem allowed “stale journal state” to persist after a transaction validation failure—meaning the system did not properly clear account and storage slot data after an invalid transaction failed during execution. Because Base uses a single sequencer, the defect had system-wide consequences.

Key takeaways

• Base’s post-mortem says a sequencer bug caused “stale journal state” to remain after an execution failure, contributing to two outages.
• Both incidents stopped new layer-2 block production; sequencer and validator nodes could not move forward past the invalid block until recovery steps completed.
• The engineering team applied a patch to update journal state correctly during execution.
• Mitigation took longer than planned, partly due to unrelated infrastructure conditions, and a follow-on “race condition” after a system reset delayed full recovery for the second outage.
• Base says it will strengthen testing through “fuzz testing” and work toward “graceful recovery” to avoid manual validator restarts in future incidents.

What went wrong in Base’s sequencer

In its Saturday post-mortem, the Base engineering team described how the system handled an invalid transaction received by the block builder. The transaction failed during execution “as expected,” the team said—but the sequencer did not clear the journal state associated with the accounts and storage slots that had been accessed.

That lingering state, the report explains, stemmed from sequencer logic that built blocks while leaving “stale journal state” intact. In typical operation, clearing or rolling back intermediate state is essential to ensure subsequent blocks are constructed from a clean execution context. Here, the failure to do so prevented normal progression.

Two outages, tied to the same failure path

Base mainnet suffered two separate block production outages on Thursday and Friday, according to the post-mortem. The first incident lasted 116 minutes, while the second was shorter at 20 minutes.

In both events, the practical outcome was the same: a complete halt in new layer-2 block creation. The sequencer and validator nodes were unable to progress past the invalid block until sequencing was restored, effectively freezing the chain’s ability to finalize new blocks.

The team implemented a fix by patching the sequencers so journal state is properly updated during execution. However, the report notes that the time required to mitigate the problem exceeded expectations “due to infrastructure conditions unrelated to the original bug.” That distinction matters for operators and builders watching for operational reliability, because it suggests the initial logic flaw was not the only factor affecting service restoration.

A follow-on “race condition” delayed full recovery

The post-mortem also points to additional complexity after a system reset. It states that a “race condition” occurred during recovery, which prevented the sequencers from catching up after the restart—contributing to the second outage.

This kind of sequencing delay is particularly important for layer-2 chains that rely on correct synchronization between components. Even after patching the underlying logic, if the system cannot re-align its execution pipeline cleanly, validators may remain blocked waiting for proper sequencer outputs. Base’s report indicates this is what happened in the follow-up period.

Sequencer centralization raises the stakes

Base is designed with a single sequencer, as the post-mortem and the team’s public communications emphasize. That architecture makes the sequencer a critical dependency: when the sequencer stalls or encounters a logic failure, the chain’s block production can stop.

This is not a theoretical risk. The report notes that outages tied to sequencer behavior have also affected other layer-2 networks, including Arbitrum, OP Mainnet, and zkSync Era. With Base, the single-sequencer model means a bug in block construction logic can become immediately visible to users across the network.

What Base plans to change next

Looking ahead, the engineering team outlined two forward-looking measures aimed at reducing the odds of similar incidents and improving recovery speed.

First, it plans to improve protocol “fuzz testing,” a technique that tests systems by generating large volumes of random, malformed, or unexpected inputs. For blockchain execution and sequencing code paths—where edge cases can trigger state inconsistencies—fuzzing is often used to uncover failure modes that normal testing may miss.

Second, the team intends to build “graceful recovery,” aiming to prevent validators from requiring manual restarts during future incidents. The operational goal is straightforward: even when something goes wrong, systems should return to service without extended human intervention or prolonged uncertainty.

Base has seen similar issues before

This week’s outages follow earlier sequencer-related disruptions on Base. The post-mortem indicates Base stopped producing blocks for 17 minutes in September 2024 and for around half an hour in August 2025—another reminder that sequencer reliability remains an ongoing focus area for the network.

In terms of scale, Base is described as the second-largest layer-2 network by total value secured, which is just under $11 billion, according to L2beat’s data. For investors and users, that positioning increases the significance of uptime and recovery mechanics: disruptions may affect activity and settlement on the network, especially during periods when other infrastructure remains stable.

As Base rolls out its planned testing and recovery improvements, the next key signal to watch is whether the fixes reduce both the likelihood of state-related sequencing failures and the time needed to fully recover after resets—particularly if future incidents still surface around tricky execution-state edge cases.

A sequencer bug was responsible for two outages of the Coinbase layer-2 network Base last week, according to a post-mortem.  

The Base engineering team said in a Saturday post-mortem that they identified a bug in sequencer block-building logic that allowed “stale journal state” to persist after a transaction validation failure. 

“An invalid transaction was received by the block builder and failed during execution, as expected, but erroneously did not clear the journal state that contained the accounts and storage slots that had been accessed,” said the team.

The Base layer-2 network runs a single sequencer, which means one bug can stop everything. It is a centralized blockchain component that decides the order of transactions and has been responsible for outages on other layer-2 chains, including Arbitrum, OP Mainnet and zkSync Era. 

On Thursday and Friday, Base mainnet experienced two block production outages, the first incident lasted 116 minutes and the second lasted 20 minutes. 

There was a complete halt of new layer-2 blocks, and the sequencer and validator nodes could not progress past the invalid block until sequencing was restored.

The team fixed the outages by applying a patch to the sequencers to ensure the journal state was properly updated during execution. 

However, mitigation took longer than expected “due to infrastructure conditions unrelated to the original bug,” they said. 

There was also a “race condition” after the system reset, which prevented the sequencers from catching up, causing the second outage. 

Related: Coinbase’s Base resumes block production after 2-hour outage

Going forward, the Base engineering team plans to improve protocol “fuzz testing,” which involves bombarding the system with large volumes of random, malformed, or unexpected inputs to find bugs, and building “graceful recovery” so that validator nodes don’t need manual restarts during future incidents.

Not the first outage for Base

It is not the first sequencer-related outage for Base, which stopped producing blocks for 17 minutes in September 2024 and for around half an hour in August 2025. 

Base is the second-largest layer-2 network by total value secured, which is just under $11 billion, according to L2beat.

Magazine: AI is banking the unbanked in Africa… faster than crypto

On-chain analysis is pointing to a familiar kind of late-cycle stress in Bitcoin: investors appear to be running out of profit and increasingly spending coins at a loss. According to a CryptoQuant analyst posting under the name Darkfost, the ratio of spent Bitcoin outputs that are in profit versus at a loss has dropped to the lowest level seen in this bear market cycle.

The signal is notable because it has historically aligned with bear-market bottoming phases—periods when long-term holders tend to find more favorable risk-reward conditions, even if the market still feels unstable for weeks.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost says the Bitcoin UTXO profit/loss spent-output ratio has hit the cycle’s lowest point.
• He describes the move as the first trigger of this kind since the correction began, indicating more widespread capitulation.
• The prior time the metric was this low was during the mid-2023 bear market, when Bitcoin traded around $26,000.
• Other on-chain observers agree price may be beyond the first breakdown, but warn the base-formation phase is still underway.
• Near-term uncertainty could rise alongside geopolitical developments, as BTC reacts to evolving risk conditions.

Bitcoin’s “spent at a loss” signal reaches a cycle low

Darkfost highlighted an on-chain pattern derived from Bitcoin unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs). In his view, the latest move reflects capitulation: more coins are being spent after being underwater than at a profit.

In a post on Saturday, Darkfost said the UTXO metric—specifically the ratio of the number of UTXOs spent in profit versus at a loss—has fallen to its lowest point in the current bear market cycle. He added that it is the first time the signal has triggered since the correction started.

“This signal… demonstrates that the number of UTXOs spent at a loss is reaching significant levels, reflecting the start of a broader capitulation,” Darkfost said, framing the development as an indicator that the market is entering a bottoming phase.

Darkfost also argued that historically, these windows have tended to be profitable for long-term investors, because they often coincide with a stage where the majority has “given up and loses interest.” At the same time, he cautioned that the transition is not instantaneous and should be understood on a long time horizon.

Why the signal matters: capitulation can take time

The key nuance in the on-chain research is timing. Even if the UTXO profit/loss ratio has reached a bear-market extreme, market behavior can remain unsettled afterward. Analyst DurdenBTC echoed that point, stating that the signal “caught every cycle low since 2016,” but warning it will “still feel terrible for weeks.”

DurdenBTC’s commentary suggested that investors should not interpret a capitulation trigger as a guarantee of immediate stabilization. Instead, it can be read as evidence that selling pressure is becoming more exhausted, while price still needs time to form a durable base.

That distinction is important for traders and investors because on-chain capitulation signals can cluster around major inflection points while price action still oscillates. The more useful takeaway is not a precise “bottom price,” but the broader shift in who is selling and at what cost basis—an environment that often changes the character of subsequent moves.

What else is changing on-chain: SOPR and exchange inflows

Darkfost later reiterated the theme in a separate update, saying long-term holders are starting to enter a capitulation phase. In that context, he pointed to the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) moving into negative territory for that cohort.

However, Darkfost also identified a driver behind the correction: he said the decline has been largely fueled by a rapid increase in BTC inflows to exchanges originating from short-term holders. That distinction matters because it implies the selling pressure may not be uniform across investor groups. Long-term holders can show capitulation patterns, while the immediate supply to exchanges may be more concentrated among those who entered closer to the recent trading range.

For market participants, the interplay between these factors—loss realization signals among longer-duration holders and exchange flows from shorter-duration holders—can help explain why on-chain “bottoming” indicators sometimes appear before volatility meaningfully subsides.

Is Bitcoin stabilizing? Analysts point to base formation, not instant recovery

While some indicators are improving, other on-chain commentary suggests the market is still working through the early stages of recovery. Swissblock said on Saturday that Bitcoin likely moved beyond the initial breakdown, but that the network is “still in the base formation phase.”

In the same general line of assessment, Swissblock described conditions as mixed: price is stabilizing, yet momentum remains deeply negative. The implication is that even with a capitulation trigger on the UTXO profit/loss ratio, traders should expect a process rather than a straight-line rebound.

The current narrative, therefore, looks like a transition from active distribution toward early stabilization—where the worst of forced selling may be passing, but market structure and momentum have not fully repaired.

External risks: geopolitical headlines may add volatility

Beyond on-chain data, near-term risk factors can still influence Bitcoin’s tape. The article notes potential uncertainty and selling pressure linked to resumed strikes by the US military on Iranian targets over the weekend.

Central Command reported that US fighter jets conducted strikes on 10 Iranian military targets across multiple locations in and near the Strait of Hormuz following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship. At the time of reporting, BTC traded around $59,800 early on Sunday morning before recovering the $60,100 level.

This matters because capitulation signals don’t eliminate macro and geopolitical volatility. In practice, the market can still test support levels even while on-chain metrics suggest profit exhaustion is progressing.

Going forward, readers should watch whether the capitulation signals deepen or fade—particularly the continued behavior of SOPR for long-term holders and whether exchange inflows from short-term holders remain elevated or normalize—while also tracking whether momentum indicators improve as geopolitical risk stabilizes.

Bitcoin’s on-chain “spent profit” signals are flashing a familiar pattern associated with past bear-market turning points, according to CryptoQuant analysis shared over the weekend.

Analyst known as Darkfost said the ratio of Bitcoin unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) spent at a loss versus those spent in profit has dropped to the lowest level in this bear-market cycle, a move that typically reflects broader capitulation among holders rather than a single wave of short-term selling.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant’s Darkfost highlighted a sharp fall in the UTXO profit/loss spending ratio, reaching the weakest point of the current bear-market cycle.
• The signal last appeared in mid-2023 during the prior bear-market depth, when BTC traded near the $26,000 area.
• Other analysts agreed the reading matches cycle-low behavior, but warned that “bottoming” can still take time and feel painful for weeks.
• Darkfost also linked the correction’s momentum to rising short-term holders sending BTC to exchanges.
• Macro/geopolitical uncertainty remains a near-term risk as resumed US strikes against Iranian targets continue to affect sentiment.

UTXO profit/loss ratio hits cycle-low levels

Darkfost’s core claim is rooted in how Bitcoin’s UTXOs are “spent”—specifically whether the outputs being moved on-chain were created when the coins were worth more or less than where they are being spent now.

According to Darkfost, the number of UTXOs spent in profit relative to those spent at a loss has fallen to its lowest level this cycle. He said this is the first time the metric has triggered since the beginning of the current correction, suggesting the market is shifting into a more mature phase of capitulation.

In his view, the resulting configuration points to a bottoming process rather than an immediate, clean reversal. He also stressed that such periods typically unfold over a “long timeframe,” warning that investors should expect continued stress even after the signal fires.

What this has meant in past bear markets

The same style of signal has historically been associated with bear-market lows. Darkfost noted that the last time the ratio dropped to comparable levels was during the previous bear-market depths in mid-2023, when BTC prices fell to roughly $26,000.

DurdenBTC—another analyst who referenced the UTXO ratio—said the reading has “caught every cycle low since 2016.” At the same time, he cautioned that price action can remain rough even after the charted bottom signal appears: in his words, it can “still feel terrible for weeks,” and buying may not look comfortable immediately because the indicator exists precisely when selling pressure is at its most intense.

“It’s caught every cycle low since 2016, and it will still feel terrible for weeks,” DurdenBTC wrote in response to the same UTXO signal.

Capitulation underway, but exchange inflows still matter

Darkfost reiterated the conclusion in a separate post, saying long-term holders are starting to move into a “capitulation phase.” He connected this to SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) behavior for that cohort, noting that it is increasingly moving into negative territory—an on-chain condition often interpreted as realized losses for the group spending older coins.

However, the analyst also underscored that not all price weakness has the same source. He said the correction has been driven largely by a rapid increase in BTC inflows to exchanges from short-term holders. That matters because exchange inflows can increase the probability of near-term selling pressure, even if broader capitulation signals suggest longer-term investors are beginning to absorb supply.

Swissblock added a complementary view on the structure of the decline, stating that Bitcoin has likely moved beyond the initial breakdown, but that the market is still in a “base formation phase.” In other words, a stabilization phase can arrive before a clear trend reversal, and momentum may remain subdued while the market works through its supply/demand imbalance.

Swissblock said price is stabilizing, yet momentum remains deeply negative, and Bitcoin’s “impulse” has only just returned to neutral.

Near-term risk: renewed US strikes and geopolitical pressure

While on-chain readings can help frame the longer arc of the cycle, immediate sentiment can still be heavily influenced by outside developments. The article’s outlook flagged potential uncertainty and increased selling pressure following resumed strikes by the US military on Iranian targets over the weekend.

According to Central Command, US fighter jets struck 10 Iranian military targets at multiple locations in and near the Strait of Hormuz late on Saturday, following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship. At the time of writing, BTC dipped to around $59,800 in early trading on Sunday morning before recovering the $60,100 level.

For traders and short-horizon investors, the takeaway is that even if capitulation signals are flashing, the path to a durable bottom can be uneven—especially when geopolitical headlines reintroduce risk-off behavior.

Going forward, readers should watch whether exchange inflows from short-term holders continue to rise or start to cool, and whether broader holder loss signals persist or transition toward recovery—because those are the data points that will determine whether “bottoming” evolves into a sustained trend shift rather than a brief stabilization.

Analysis of Bitcoin unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) shows that investors are capitulating, a pattern that has historically coincided with bear market bottoms. 

The ratio of the number of UTXOs spent in profit versus at a loss has fallen to its lowest level this bear market cycle, said CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost on Saturday. 

This is the first time this signal has triggered since the start of the correction, “demonstrating that the number of UTXOs spent at a loss is reaching significant levels, reflecting the start of a broader capitulation,” he said. 

The metric shows that markets are entering a bottoming phase, which could be a strategic time to accumulate. The last time it fell this low was in the depths of the previous bear market in mid-2023, when BTC prices fell to around $26,000. 

“These periods have always been profitable for long-term investors,” continued Darkfost. “They correspond to the moment when the majority gives up and loses interest.”

He cautioned that it is a process that takes time, and we are on a long timeframe. 

Bitcoin UTXO profit loss ratio at bear market low. Source: CryptoQuant

“The bottom signal I’ve been waiting for just fired,” said analyst DurdenBTC on Saturday, also commenting on the UTXO ratio. “It’s caught every cycle low since 2016, and it will still feel terrible for weeks,” he added. “If buying here were comfortable, the signal wouldn’t exist.”

Related: Bitcoin faces fresh capitulation risk as 50K BTC moved at a loss

In a separate post, Darkfost confirmed the findings, stating that long-term holders are starting to “enter a capitulation phase,” observing that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is increasingly moving into negative territory for this cohort. 

However, he also said that this correction has been largely fueled by the rapid increase in BTC inflows to exchanges coming from short-term holders.

Meanwhile, onchain analytics firm Swissblock said on Saturday that Bitcoin has likely moved beyond the initial breakdown, but “we’re still in the base formation phase.”

“Price is stabilizing, yet momentum remains deeply negative, and Bitcoin impulse has only just returned to neutral.”

Selling pressure may increase 

Uncertainty and selling pressure may increase following resumed strikes by the US military on Iranian targets over the weekend. 

US fighter jets conducted strikes on 10 Iranian military targets at multiple locations in and near the Strait of Hormuz late on Saturday in response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship, reported Central Command. 

BTC prices dipped to $59,800 in early trading on Sunday morning, but had recovered the $60,100 level at the time of writing. 

Magazine: AI is banking the unbanked in Africa… faster than crypto

Fidelity Digital Assets is pushing back on a central criticism of Bitcoin’s long-term security: that falling block rewards from repeated halvings will eventually weaken incentives for miners and make sustained attacks more feasible. In a new research report, Fidelity argues that Bitcoin’s economic model is broader than issuance alone and that the network’s security can remain robust even as subsidies decline.

The report, authored by Fidelity research analyst Daniel Gray, reiterates that transaction fees and other market incentives help miners maintain profitability and continue contributing hash power. The debate matters to investors and builders because Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule steadily reduces new coin supply until the block subsidy disappears—leaving the question of whether fees and incentives will fully replace that funding over time.

Key takeaways

• Fidelity argues Bitcoin’s security relies on multiple economic forces, not just block rewards.
• Gray cites historical miner incentives strengthening alongside Bitcoin’s price, despite declining issuance across halving cycles.
• Miners still face intense near-term financial pressure, even as the long-term security narrative remains contested.
• Publicly traded miners’ shift toward AI and high-performance computing highlights costs and operational demands that differ from typical mining setups.

Why Fidelity says halving won’t automatically erode security

One of the most persistent concerns around Bitcoin’s programmed supply is that each quadrennial halving reduces the block subsidy that miners earn. Critics contend that, over the long run, declining issuance could lower miner revenue and weaken incentives—unless transaction fees rise enough to compensate for the reduction.

Fidelity’s new analysis challenges that framing by arguing that block rewards are only one part of the security equation. According to the report, miners are also supported by transaction fees and by broader market incentives that keep attacks economically unattractive. Put simply, the network does not depend solely on how many new coins are created per block; it depends on whether miners can still justify securing the chain in the face of costs and risk.

Fidelity’s report also engages with the larger timeline investors watch: Bitcoin’s issuance schedule reduces new supply gradually, and eventually the block subsidy will reach zero. That future transition is why the fee-versus-subsidy question remains central for developers, economists, and market participants.

Miner revenue and incentives across halving cycles

Fidelity points to data showing that miner revenue has risen substantially over time, rather than weakening in line with reduced subsidies. Gray notes that since April 20, 2024, miners have been receiving a subsidy of 3.125 BTC per block—down from 6.25 BTC during the prior halving cycle.

In the report, Gray argues that lower issuance hasn’t translated into weaker incentives because Bitcoin’s rising price has more than offset the decline in block rewards. He also highlights the growth in average daily miner revenue, which he says increased from roughly $26,300 during Bitcoin’s first halving cycle to more than $40.2 million at present.

“Despite declining issuance, miner incentives — and by extension, network security — historically strengthened alongside Bitcoin’s price,” Gray writes. The underlying implication is that if miners continue to capture enough value from the combination of price, fees, and other economic dynamics, the network’s security budget can remain sufficient even as subsidy-based income shrinks.

Fidelity’s argument is particularly relevant for readers who view halvings as deterministic security “stress tests.” Instead of treating reduced issuance as an automatic negative, the report frames miner incentives as a responsive system that has historically adapted when the asset price and fee environment improve.

The security debate versus miners’ real-world financial strain

While Fidelity emphasizes long-term economic resilience, the same period has also exposed serious near-term pressures for many mining firms—especially those operating as public companies. Industry commentary cited in connection with the report describes the current environment as among the most difficult on record, pointing to a combination of lower mining rewards, rising costs, and increasing competition.

That gap between long-term theory and short-term operating reality is where the industry’s behavior becomes important to watch. The source material notes that some miners have diversified into artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, using existing power infrastructure and data center assets to pursue demand from AI workloads instead of relying solely on Bitcoin mining.

In this context, an earlier Cointelegraph report referenced a VanEck estimate suggesting publicly traded miners could require up to $50 billion in additional capital to fully transition to AI infrastructure. The scale of that estimate underscores why many mining companies are making strategic pivots now: even if long-term Bitcoin security remains intact, the companies themselves may need liquidity and capital to remain competitive and operationally flexible.

Why “AI pivot” operations are harder than mining

One reason the pivot to AI and HPC is costly—and not simply a rebranding of mining—is that uptime, reliability, and facility requirements differ from typical mining setups. A quote attributed to Blocksbridge Consulting in the source material contrasts the two environments: a Bitcoin mine, the publication notes, can run with relatively simpler infrastructure and ASIC fleets that can tolerate faster curtailment. AI and HPC facilities, by contrast, require higher standards for continuous operation.

According to the same source, AI and HPC deployments demand greater electrical redundancy, improved cooling, tighter network requirements, and more responsive customer support—factors that add both engineering complexity and capital intensity.

This operational reality can matter for investors and analysts trying to interpret miner behavior. If mining economics remain uncertain on a quarter-to-quarter basis, firms may pursue non-Bitcoin revenue streams not because Bitcoin’s security thesis is wrong, but because maintaining balance sheets and meeting facility requirements in adjacent markets can be just as challenging as competing on hash rate.

Looking ahead: the fee question remains the test

Fidelity’s report argues that Bitcoin can stay secure even as issuance falls, but the broader market will still be watching the transition from subsidy-led revenue to fee-led revenue. The most important near-term signals are how transaction fee levels evolve relative to miner costs, and whether miners’ financial restructuring efforts can be sustained without undermining their ability to keep contributing to network security.