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Crypto World

HBAR Price Bounces 10%, Already Faces Liquidation Risk?

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Building RSI Risk

Hedera’s HBAR is outperforming the broader crypto market. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are up around 2% over the past day, HBAR price today has gained nearly 10% over the past week and about 8% in the last 24 hours, trading near $0.096 at press time.

The rally has raised expectations of a breakout. But momentum, volume, and derivatives data suggest risk is rising faster than conviction.

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Falling Wedge Breakout Hopes Build, But With A Risk

HBAR has been trading inside a falling wedge pattern since late 2025.

Since early February, HBAR has rebounded from close to the lower boundary of this structure and climbed toward the upper trendline near $0.098. This level has capped the price multiple times and now acts as key resistance.

If HBAR breaks and holds above this zone, the wedge’s measured move points toward an upside of over 50% from current levels. However, momentum is starting to weaken. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures buying and selling strength. When RSI rises, momentum improves. When it weakens, momentum fades.

Between February 6 and February 12, HBAR struggled to move decisively above $0.098 and began forming a potential lower high. At the same time, RSI continued making higher highs.

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Building RSI Risk
Building RSI Risk: TradingView

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This creates a hidden bearish divergence. It happens when the price fails to confirm improving momentum. It often signals that buyers are becoming stretched near resistance.

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This does not indicate a trend reversal. But it shows that upside efficiency is declining as the price approaches a critical level. The divergence threat passes if the current HBAR price candle touches $0.098, invalidating the lower-high theory.

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Money Flow and Derivatives Data Show Rising Risks

Money and leverage indicators reinforce this warning. One key metric is Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. CMF tracks whether large capital is flowing into or out of an asset by combining price and volume. When CMF stays above zero, strong institutional buying is present. When it remains below zero, major inflows are missing.

Between December 31 and February 11, HBAR’s CMF has trended higher while the price trended lower. This divergence supported the recent rebound. CMF has also broken above its descending trendline. But CMF remains below the zero line.

Money Flow Risk
Money Flow Risk: TradingView

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This means selling pressure has eased, but strong accumulation has not returned. The rally is still driven mainly by short-term traders rather than large wallets. Derivatives data adds further risk. Open interest measures the total value of active futures contracts. When it rises, leverage in the market increases.

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Since February 11, HBAR’s open interest has climbed from about $26.96 million to nearly $29.38 million, an increase of roughly 9% in one day. This jump happened as the price approached resistance. At the same time, funding rates turned sharply positive.

Funding shifted from around -0.018 to near +0.05 within 24 hours. This shows that long positions are building rapidly. There is also a divergence between price and leverage.

HBAR Open Interest
HBAR Open Interest: Santiment

The HBAR price formed a local peak on February 8 and another on February 12. The second peak is lower, showing weaker price strength. But open interest made a higher high during the same period. More leverage is entering the market even as the price momentum weakens. This combination often precedes pullbacks. When leverage rises near resistance and momentum fades, even small declines can trigger forced liquidations.

In simple terms, risk-taking is rising while conviction remains weak.

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Key Levels Will Decide Whether HBAR Price Breaks Out or Pulls Back

With optimism clashing with weak participation, price levels now matter most. The main upside trigger remains $0.098.

This level aligns with wedge resistance and recent swing highs. A clean break and hold above it would invalidate the bearish divergence and reduce liquidation risk. If that happens, HBAR could target $0.107 first, followed by the $0.145 zone, potentially realizing the wedge target.

That would confirm that real demand has returned. Until then, the rally remains vulnerable. On the downside, $0.090 is the first key support. This level has held multiple times during recent consolidation. A breakdown below it would likely trigger long liquidations.

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HBAR Price Analysis
HBAR Price Analysis: TradingView

Below $0.090, the next major support sits near $0.076. A move to this zone would erase around 20% from current levels and signal that the breakout attempt has failed.

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Crypto World

Token Voting Is Crypto’s Broken Incentive System

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Token Voting Is Crypto’s Broken Incentive System

Opinion by: Francesco Mosterts, co-founder of Umia.

Crypto prides itself on being a market-driven system. Prices, incentives, and capital flows determine everything from token valuations to lending rates and blockspace demand. Markets are the industry’s primary coordination mechanism. Yet, when it comes to governance, crypto suddenly abandons markets altogether.

Recent governance disputes at major protocols have once again exposed the tensions inside DAO decision-making. Participation remains extremely low and influence is highly concentrated. A study of 50 DAOs found “a discernible pattern of low token holder engagement,” showing that a single large voter could sway 35% of outcomes and that four voters or fewer influence two-thirds of governance decisions.

This is not the decentralized future crypto originally set out to build. The early vision of the industry was to remove concentrated power and replace it with systems that distributed influence more fairly. Instead, DAO governance often leaves most tokenholders passive while a small group determines the protocol’s direction.

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Token voting was crypto’s first attempt at decentralized governance. It is a broken incentive system, and it needs to change.

The promise of token governance

The original “DAO” launched in 2016 as a decentralized venture fund where token holders would vote on which projects to finance. The earliest DAOs were inspired by the idea that organizations could run purely through code. 

At crypto’s conception, token voting felt intuitive. It borrowed from familiar concepts like shareholder voting, yet DAOs promised a new form of management called “decentralized governance.” Tokens would represent both ownership and decision rights, meaning anyone who held them could participate in shaping the direction of a protocol.

Related: ‘Raider’ investors are looting DAOs

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Token voting was supposed to solve problems seen across many industries, including centralized control, opaque decision-making, and misalignment between teams and users. It offered a simple promise: if the community owned the token, the community would run the project. In practice, however, this miraculous solution hasn’t delivered on its promise.

The reality of why token voting fails

Token voting comes with three core problems: participation, whales, and incentives. 

Participation is self-explanatory: most token holders don’t vote. With lots of material to review, particularly when many governance decisions need to be made, governance fatigue is a real problem. The result of this, which we now see every day in crypto, is that most token holders are ultimately passive and a small minority decides the outcomes. 

When it comes to whales, it is obvious that large holders are dominating. It’s demoralizing for ordinary voters who feel like their opinions don’t matter, even though the original promise of DAOs was that they would have a real voice. What is the point of voting if whales have the final say?

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Finally, there’s an incentive problem. Voting has no economic signal. Votes hold the same weight whether you’re informed or not. There’s no cost to being wrong and no incentive for being right. There’s nothing motivating participants to research and vote according to their beliefs.

Realistically, in current governance, voting simply expresses opinions. It does not express conviction. 

The missing piece lies in pricing decisions

Crypto is fundamentally market-driven, and it works remarkably well. Markets aggregate information, price risk, and reveal conviction in ways few other systems can. The industry has built markets for practically everything, including tokens, derivatives, blockspace, and lending rates. They sit at the core of how crypto coordinates economic activity. Yet when it comes to governance, the system suddenly abandons markets entirely.

Decision markets introduce pricing into governance. Instead of merely voting on proposals, participants trade outcomes, pricing the possible decisions and backing their views with capital. This transforms governance from a system of expressed preferences into one of measurable conviction.

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By tying decisions to economic incentives, participants are encouraged to research proposals and think carefully about outcomes. The result is a governance process that reflects informed expectations rather than passive opinion.

This matters now

Crypto is reaching a turning point in how it coordinates decisions. Governance conflicts, treasury disputes, and stalled proposals have exposed the limits of token voting. Even major protocols struggle to translate tokenholder input into clear, effective action. This has left governance slow, contentious, and dominated by a small group of participants.

At the same time, interest in market-based coordination is resurging across the ecosystem. Prediction markets have demonstrated how effectively markets can aggregate information, while broader discussions around mechanisms like futarchy are returning to the forefront. These systems highlight markets as powerful tools for revealing conviction and aligning incentives.

If crypto believes in markets as coordination engines, the next step is applying that same logic to governance. The next phase of crypto coordination will move beyond simply trading assets and toward pricing and executing decisions themselves.

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Token voting was crypto’s first attempt at decentralized governance, and it was an important experiment. It gave tokenholders a voice, but it didn’t solve the deeper incentive problem.

Markets already power nearly every part of the crypto ecosystem. They aggregate information, reveal conviction, and align incentives at scale. Extending that same mechanism to decisions is the natural next step.

Decision markets also extend beyond governance votes into capital allocation itself. If markets can price decisions about a protocol’s direction, they can also price decisions about what to build and fund. This opens the door to a new generation of ventures built directly on crypto rails, where projects can raise capital and allocate resources through transparent, incentive-aligned mechanisms from day one. Instead of relying on passive token voting, markets can actively guide how onchain organizations form and grow.

Governance without pricing is incomplete. If crypto truly believes in markets as coordination engines, the future of onchain organizations cannot be decided by votes alone, but by markets.

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Opinion by: Francesco Mosterts, co-founder of Umia.