The crypto market succumbed to a wave of selling pressure and liquidations on Thursday, with bitcoin BTC$63,729.63 tumbling to around $61,300 at 02:00 UTC before recovering to as high as $64,680. It recently traded around $62,500.

Ether (ETH) lost 3% since midnight UTC, now trading at around $1,750. Several other altcoins saw deeper declines, with NEAR, ZEC and JUP all losing more than 13%.

The downside move triggered a wave of liquidations with $1.7 billion worth of futures positions being forcibly closed due to the slide, $750 million worth of that can be attributed to bitcoin, $390 million to ether.

Investors appear to be deserting crypto to pursue the AI narrative in traditional markets, exacerbating the geopolitical uncertainty and a fundamentally broken market structure that has failed to recover from October’s leverage wipeout.

Derivatives positioning

• Total 24-hour futures volume rose 2.9% to $305 billion, an increase that reflects elevated but not panicked activity. More telling is open interest, which declined 8.5% to $111.4 billion, a sign that leveraged positions are being unwound rather than fresh bets being added.
• Liquidations have been severe: Roughly $3 billion in leveraged positions have been wiped out over the past two days, with the 24-hour tally alone reaching $1.7 billion.
• Bitcoin’s open interest has pulled back to 766,000 BTC from yesterday’s record highs above 800,000 BTC. The decline suggests the price plunge has flushed out a significant portion of leveraged longs and that bears are not aggressively building new directional bets, at least not in BTC. The same dynamic holds for ether (ETH) and XRP.
• Solana is a notable exception. Open interest in SOL surged to a record 72.16 million tokens even as prices declined, a combination that typically signals an influx of short positions. The sentiment is understandable given SOL dropped below its February low while BTC, ETH and XRP held above theirs.
• TRX and ADA are also seeing open interest rise as their prices fall, suggesting similar short-side accumulation in those markets.
• Derivatives’ broader tone confirms the bearish tilt. The 24-hour cumulative volume delta across the top 20 tokens is negative, meaning traders are selling at market prices rather than limit orders. This active, aggressive bearish participation suggests potential for deeper losses.
• Implied volatility is rising in tandem. Volmex’s 30-day implied volatility indexes for bitcoin (BVIV) and ether (EVIV) have surged over the past three sessions, reflecting growing demand for options-based hedging and heightened expectations of continued price swings.
• Put skews have strengthened in both bitcoin and ether, signaling that investors are willing to pay a premium for downside protection. The $60,000 strike put on Deribit carries over $1 billion in notional open interest. As spot prices approach that strike, large position adjustments become increasingly likely, which could amplify volatility.
• The $55,000 put was the most actively traded options contract in the past 24 hours. The message from derivatives markets is unambiguous: Sentiment is bearish.

Token talk

• The altcoin market underperformed crypto majors on Thursday. Even recent darling HYPE lost 12% after hitting a record high earlier this week.
• DASH, ENA and FET also fell by more than 10% since midnight UTC as the lack of liquidity in altcoin pairs reared its head again.
• Market depth is typically much lower on altcoin pairs than on bitcoin or ether, so the amount of capital it takes to move prices in either direction is relatively low. Pair that with a wave of liquidations and the asset simply can’t maintain the level of supply, causing exaggerated price moves to the downside.
• Monero (XMR), despite being down by 4% since midnight, is still in the black over 24 hours. Trading at $347, it is seemingly unperturbed by the broader market crash.
• Much of the altcoin trajectory will depend on bitcoin’s ability to hold above $60,000. A break below that could trigger further liquidations, which would weigh more on the illiquid altcoin pairs.

Strategy’s bitcoin treasury is back in focus as Bitcoin trades below the company’s average acquisition price, renewing questions about the long-running treasury thesis led by Michael Saylor. Strategy, the parent of MicroStrategy, holds 843,706 BTC acquired at an average price of $75,699 per coin, delivering a total cost basis of about $63.8 billion. With the latest downturn, the reserve’s value is estimated at roughly $52.6 billion, producing an unrealized loss of about $11.2 billion on paper, according to Strategy’s dashboard.

The dip comes as Strategy also faces headwinds in its secondary equity instrument and broader market dynamics. The company’s variable-rate perpetual preferred stock, STRC, has traded below its stated $100 par value and hovered around $94.6 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Strategy’s stock (formerly under the MSTR ticker) was down about 1.5% in pre-market trading, trading near $124.70, according to Yahoo Finance data.

The paper loss compounds scrutiny of Strategy’s bitcoin-treasury model at a time when Bitcoin itself has faced renewed selling pressure. In the same period, Strategy disclosed selling 32 BTC, its first sale since 2022. That move followed a prior tax-related sale cycle, and it comes alongside broader market indications that BTC’s price swings are testing the resilience of large-scale corporate treasury strategies.

Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains central to the debate around corporate BTC reserves. At the time of reporting, BTC traded around $63,157, down about 4.7% on the day and 13.8% over the past week, with a roughly 20% slide over the past month, according to data aggregated by TradingView. The drawdown has coincided with a broader wave of outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which Cointelegraph noted recently reached about $4.4 billion over the last 13 trading days.

In a bid to calibrate the market narrative, Strategy founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor pushed back against a purely bearish read on the holdings. In a post on X, he argued that exchange-traded fund outflows were “pressuring BTC,” while capital markets have redirected around $400 billion into AI infrastructure over the past six months. “This is a capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment. Volatility creates opportunity,” Saylor wrote.

Some market observers framed the STRC price move as a function of typical preferred-stock dynamics rather than an indication of underlying problems. “STRC’s $100 par value is not a price floor. It’s the stated value used for liquidation preference and certain redemption provisions,” noted investor Scott Melker, adding that a mild discount to par—about 5%—reflects investors demanding a higher yield or pricing risk, which is a conventional feature of preferred stocks.

“A 5% discount to par is not evidence that something is broken. It’s evidence that investors are demanding a higher yield, pricing risk, or reacting to market conditions – exactly what preferred stocks do.”

On the other side of the spectrum, veteran commentator Peter Schiff argued that declines in STRC could force Material adjustments in Strategy’s cash flow to maintain its dividend commitments, potentially accelerating bitcoin sales to fund payments if needed. Schiff’s take frames the situation as a potential cash-flow squeeze rather than a fundamental attack on BTC value.

The broader market backdrop helps illuminate why Strategy’s next moves matter beyond a single balance sheet line item. Standard Chartered analysts have suggested that a local Bitcoin bottom might be forming, contingent on Strategy’s next purchases. Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, noted that a recovery could hinge on a tangible bid from Strategy. “I would see it as a tentative sign the low has been printed, and given that logic, suspect selling over the weekend will be muted,” Kendrick said. He even floated the possibility that a sizable purchase—320 BTC (roughly 10x the recent sale) or 3,200 BTC (100x the sale)—could substantively signal a market bottom.

Key takeaways

• Strategy’s Bitcoin reserve stands at 843,706 BTC with an average cost basis of $75,699 per coin, totaling about $63.8 billion; current value sits near $52.6 billion, implying an unrealized loss of roughly $11.2 billion per the company’s dashboard.
• STRC, Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock, trades around $94.6, well below its $100 par value, illustrating how market conditions affect the willingness to issue new preferred stock to fund further BTC acquisitions.
• Strategy recently sold 32 BTC, marking its first sale since 2022; the firm previously executed a tax-related sale in 2022 and followed with a sizable repurchase two days later.
• Bitcoin’s price hovered around $63,157 at the time of reporting, down roughly 4.7% on the day and 13.8% over the past week, with spot BTC ETF outflows contributing to the broader sell-off.
• Analysts at Standard Chartered suggest the market may be approaching a local bottom contingent on Strategy’s next moves; a fresh BTC-buy signal could bolster confidence in a floor being formed.

Strategy’s treasury in context: what’s changed and what to watch

Source lines and data points cited above come from Strategy’s official dashboard, Strategy.com, and related public disclosures; price movements and ETF flow figures are drawn from market trackers and Cointelegraph reporting. The latest price data for BTC and ETF outflows are as reported by TradingView and Cointelegraph’s coverage on ETF activity.

As the year unfolds, the market will be watching for a concrete signal from Strategy—whether a renewed wave of BTC purchases or a shift toward reinforcing liquidity without significant additional bitcoin accumulation. Such moves will not only influence Strategy’s financials but could also reverberate through investor sentiment around corporate BTC programs and the broader crypto market.

To say bitcoin BTC$63,591.97 bears are having a great time would be an understatement. The cryptocurrency has shed 14% in seven days, falling to levels not seen since the crash in February. Broader crypto markets have taken an equally brutal beating, and most analysts say the situation could deteriorate further if BTC breaks below the critical $60,000 threshold.

Amid the gloom, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, sees a different picture.

This week’s crypto pain was real, Kendrick said, but he thinks “the low is almost in.” His case rests on three pillars:

Strategy (MSTR) repeats its 2022 operation: When Strategy last sold BTC, in December 2022, it bought back more than it sold just two days later. Kendrick expects the firm to do the same after having sold 32 BTC last week. It could potentially buy as much as 100 times that amount, he said in an email, adding that, if confirmed next Monday, he’d treat it as a tentative signal that the low is in.

ETF holdings are sturdier than feared: The 11 spot ETFs listed in the U.S. have seen a net outflow of $5 billion over the past three weeks. Yet, if we zoom out, the holdings have barely moved. The cumulative net inflow since inception in early 2024 is back to $54.2 billion, right where it was earlier this year. “They went up from 682k and then back down to now 674k (broadly unchanged). This tells me that ETF holdings are more structurally strong than I had feared in February,” he said.

Liquidations are mostly done: bitcoin futures bets worth $1.5 billion have been liquidated by exchanges. That figure is similar to January’s, and with BTC already badly underperforming equities this year, the pool of leveraged longs left to liquidate is smaller than before, he argued.

The takeaway? There are too many “Ifs” involved to predict an exact bottom, but according to Kendrick, accumulating here makes more sense than waiting for certainty.

“I think when we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k and ETH at $4k we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted,” he said. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

Today’s signal

The weekly bitcoin price chart is suggesting the same as Standard Chartered’s Kendrick: The bear market is probably in its final stages and the bottom may be near.

The cryptocurrency is trading close to its 200-week simple moving average. That’s noteworthy because previous bear markets ended around the same average, as the green arrows on the chart show.

So, if past is a guide, then a bottom may happen soon. Note, however, that past patterns are no guarantee of future performance.

Russia sanctioned a British teenager for his role in exposing the alleged use of ruble-pegged stablecoin A7A5 in funding the war effort against Ukraine.

Alexander Browder, 17, penned a report for foreign policy and national security think tank The Henry Jackson Society, which the Russian Foreign Ministry described as spreading “defamatory speculations and false information.”

Browder, who is the son of Vladimir Putin critic Bill Browder, was sanctioned along with three other U.K. nationals and Washington Post reporter Catherine Belton.

He described it as “a badge of honour” in a post on X on Wednesday.

The A7A5 stablecoin was designed to bypass sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Digital trading platform Moomoo said Thursday it had partnered with prediction market operator Kalshi to bring CFTC-regulated event contracts to eligible users, allowing them to trade on the outcomes of major economic, political and cultural events directly through the brokerage’s platform.

The offering gives users access to contracts linked to events such as Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions, inflation data releases, elections and the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the New York-based company said in a press release.

Event contracts are exchange-listed derivatives that allow traders to take positions on whether a specific outcome will occur. Prices range from $0.01 to $1 and represent the market’s implied probability of an event happening. The contracts are fully collateralized and integrated alongside Moomoo’s existing equities, options and exchange-traded fund (ETF) offerings.

Prediction markets have exploded in popularity since the 2024 U.S. election, evolving from a niche forecasting tool into a fast-growing corner of the retail trading market.

Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded beyond politics into sports, macroeconomic data and cultural events, attracting billions of dollars in trading volume. Combined monthly volume on the two largest platforms climbed from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion by April 2026, underscoring growing investor appetite for event-driven markets.

“Our focus is on providing investors with both access and understanding,” Nate Palmer, president of Moomoo U.S., said in emailed comments. “Through event contracts and supporting educational resources, we’re giving users additional tools to analyze and engage with significant real-world events.

Kalshi, which has emerged as the dominant U.S. prediction market platform, said the partnership will broaden access to event-based trading.

The launch comes as interest in prediction markets continues to grow. By integrating Kalshi’s contracts, Moomoo joins a growing list of brokerages offering retail investors exposure to event-driven markets.

The partnership also expands Moomoo’s product ecosystem. The company recently introduced direct crypto deposits and withdrawals and launched moomoo API Skills, a feature designed to support AI-powered investing tools.

Read more: Gemini taps SpaceXAI to build a personalized prediction markets feed

In the 1990s, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were a novel idea. Many saw them simply as a new wrapper for traditional assets – a convenient repackaging of mutual funds. In reality, ETFs triggered a market structure revolution. By introducing creation/redemption mechanisms and arbitrage-driven liquidity, ETFs fundamentally changed how markets functioned and how investors accessed assets. ETFs blurred the line between primary and secondary markets and turned arbitrage into the mechanism for holding the system together.

How does tokenization mirror the ETFs market structure revolution? In almost every key aspect.

A robust tokenized asset isn’t simply “issued” once like a stock or bond – it typically can be minted or burned on demand against some pool of underlying assets or rights. For example, when a token represents shares of a fund or stock, authorized participants (or smart contracts acting as such) should be able to deposit the underlying and mint new tokens or redeem tokens for the underlying assets.

If the token trades above the value of its underlying holdings, arbitrageurs will mint new tokens (injecting supply) until prices realign; if it trades below, they will redeem tokens (reducing supply) until the discount closes. The economic principle is identical to ETFs. The token is a wrapper on the same assets, and arbitrage keeps its price honest.

With respect to both ETFs and tokenization, the wrapper is simply a liquid representation of a basket of economic exposures. An ETF share is not the underlying securities themselves, but a standardized claim on a basket that trades efficiently because creation and redemption keep it aligned with the underlying assets. Tokenization follows the same logic. The token becomes the liquid instrument, while the underlying assets remain the economic anchor. What matters is not the form of the wrapper, but the strength of the arbitrage link between wrapper and basket.

ETFs already represented a major leap in transparency by making baskets of assets trade continuously on-exchange, with visible prices, intraday liquidity, and alignment with underlying value through arbitrage. Tokenization builds on this foundation. Where blockchains can go further is in making issuance, transfers and outstanding supply observable in near real time, potentially widening visibility into how the wrapper evolves relative to the underlying basket.

One of the most important features of tokenized markets is their ability to trade continuously, even when underlying markets are closed. For anyone who has traded ETFs globally, this is not new but a familiar and highly valuable market‑structure capability. Continuous trading outside local market hours allows prices to incorporate new information as it emerges, rather than waiting for the next open, and enables investors across time zones to transfer risk when they actually need to. These prices reflect informed expectations — built using correlated instruments, futures, FX, and broader market signals — in the same way international and cross‑timezone ETFs have operated for decades.

U.S.-listed ETFs that hold European or Asian equities already demonstrate how credible pricing can exist when the underlying cash market is closed. Those ETFs continue to trade during the U.S. session even after Europe or Asia has shut, and their market price naturally reflects updated expectations — based on futures, FX, ADRs, macro news and other correlated signals — rather than stale closing prints. In practice, authorized participants and market makers continuously estimate an “intrinsic fair value” for the ETF, including an expected next-open price for holdings in closed markets, and quote around that to keep the ETF’s market price anchored to that fair value.

The same concept can be applied to tokenized Apple stock, for example, which can trade on Saturday based on the evaluation of Apple’s likely next trading price come Monday. If big news broke on Saturday, you’d see the token react immediately. Liquidity providers would quote a price that factors in that news, likely hedging with any related instruments, such as Nasdaq futures, if available. By Monday’s open, Apple’s real stock price would likely catch up to wherever the token traded over the weekend. In effect, the token becomes a leading indicator for the underlying stock.

Market participants (especially across different time zones) don’t all operate on U.S. Eastern Time. A European investor holding a tokenized U.S. bond fund might love the ability to adjust positions at 8 p.m. CET on a Friday, rather than waiting until Monday. While providing liquidity 24/7 raises the “cost of carry” or the risk of holding a position when underlying markets are closed. In practice, this just means spreads might be a bit wider during purely off-hour trading, as they are, say, in currency markets on a holiday – but the key difference is that the digital asset market stays open. And as more participants join and risk management tools improve, these costs diminish. In the long run, a 24/7 market should become as natural as the 24/5 FX market is today.

The current tokenization dialogue closely resembles the early days of ETFs: initial skepticism, early traction in niche segments and increasing institutional involvement. That same pattern ultimately transformed ETFs into a $10+ trillion market.

I firmly believe tokenization is on the same path, because the structural forces pushing it forward are the same ones that made ETFs successful. The relevant test is not technological novelty, but whether it improves efficiency, access and system-level robustness. Where those conditions are met, tokenization is not merely comparable to the ETF evolution — it represents its logical continuation.