The amount of bitcoin BTC$63,729.63 supply in loss reached a key bear-market threshold, surpassing 10 million BTC, more than half of the total in circulation.

According to Glassnode data, at a one-hour resolution, the number peaked at about 10.5 million BTC as the price fell to as low as $61,300 on Thursday. Total circulating supply is roughly 20 million BTC, so more than half of all coins are currently held at an unrealized loss.

At the same time, supply in profit has declined to around 9.8 million BTC. This is the first time during the current market cycle that the amount of bitcoin held at a loss has exceeded the amount held in profit.

Historically, this transition has occurred only during deep bear-market conditions, and it has often coincided with major market bottoms.

Previous cycles provide some context.

During the 2015 bear market, supply in loss and supply in profit remained near equilibrium for almost a year before the market recovered. In 2019, the period lasted roughly six months. The Covid-driven capitulation in March 2020 was shorter, lasting around one month, and the 2022 bear market saw this condition persist for about six months.

The takeaway is that while this signal has historically aligned with bear-market lows, the duration of these periods has varied significantly, making it difficult to estimate how long bitcoin could remain at depressed levels.

Adding to the significance of the recent decline, bitcoin touched its 200-week moving average of around $61,300. The measure is a long-term trend indicator that calculates bitcoin’s average price over the previous 200 weeks. It has historically acted as a major support level during every bear market cycle.

Should bitcoin drop below the psychologically important $60,000 level, the next major support zone is around $54,000, which corresponds to the realized price. The realized price represents the average acquisition cost of all bitcoin in circulation based on the price at which each coin last moved onchain. Bitcoin has traded below its Realized Price during every major bear market.

Maelstrom, the investment firm led by Arthur Hayes, argues that Worldcoin’s WLD token could surge to as much as $5 in the coming months, framing WLD as a clean proxy for the AI mega IPO wave. The note positions the token as a relatively overlooked lever in a market that is increasingly pricing in AI-driven growth and corporate AI infrastructure shifts.

“The AI mega IPOs are coming — and it appears the market has overlooked one of the cleanest proxies,” said Lukas Ruppert, a Maelstrom researcher, on Wednesday.

The AI boom has been accelerating in the United States. OpenAI confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC on May 22, targeting a public debut in September 2026, with the firm aiming to raise $60 billion and a potential valuation of up to $1 trillion. Meanwhile, Anthropic confidentially filed its draft prospectus after announcing on May 28 that it was valued at $965 billion following a fresh $65 billion funding round. US stock markets have risen this week, aided by AI‑related gains in memory storage and chipmakers as well as broader tech sentiment.

Ruppert argues that this AI fervor has not yet fully reflected in WLD’s price, even as near-term developments around Worldcoin and its token dynamics could tilt sentiment. He points to two potential catalysts that could reverse the current overhang and tilt WLD higher.

Key takeaways

• The Maelstrom view casts WLD as a high‑conviction proxy for upcoming AI mega IPOs, with a price target around $5 in the near term.
• Two catalysts could spark a rally: a substantial WLD bid by Eightco ORBS and a meaningful improvement in the token’s unlock schedule.
• Eightco ORBS, a small publicly traded company, reportedly holds about 283 million WLD and sits on roughly $144 million in cash, which could be deployed to buy more WLD and potentially trigger a price reflexive move.
• Worldcoin’s token unlock framework is set to ease selling pressure by about 43% on July 24, potentially removing a key overhang for the token.

Worldcoin and the AI IPO frame

Worldcoin positions itself as a project intended to create a global digital identity and financial network capable of distinguishing real humans from AI bots. Co‑founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, the project has attracted mainstream attention as the AI ecosystem expands beyond pure software into identity, verification, and on-chain participation use cases.

Against a backdrop of heavyweight AI funding rounds and planned public listings, WLD has traded in a risk‑premium corridor. Ruppert notes that capital is increasingly chasing exposure to AI leaders such as OpenAI and Anthropic, whose valuations are in the hundreds of billions, if not trillions, while WLD’s currently unlocked market cap sits at what he sees as a much smaller, “asymmetric upside” opportunity around $2 billion.

As a gauge of momentum, WLD has been among the stronger performers within the top‑100 crypto assets by market cap, rallying roughly 60% over the past week in market activity tracked by price feeds such as TradingView.

Catalysts to watch for a WLD rally

The two primary catalysts outlined by Maelstrom centre on supply dynamics and capital allocation flow.

First, Eightco ORBS — a small publicly traded company that has accumulated a sizable stash of Worldcoin tokens — reportedly holds about 283 million WLD and has around $144 million in cash on its balance sheet. Ruppert suggests that if Eightco deploys a portion of that cash to buy additional WLD, it could ignite a reflexive price loop, where rising demand from a buyer with large holdings pushes the price higher and draws in more buyers.

Second, Worldcoin’s unlock schedule is set to tighten the flow of new tokens into the market. Beginning on July 24, the daily unlocks are expected to fall by roughly 43%, a move that could meaningfully reduce near‑term selling pressure and support price stability or upside in the weeks ahead.

Ruppert frames these dynamics within a broader investor context: “Capital is aggressively chasing Anthropic and OpenAI exposure,” and while AI valuations sit in the hundreds of billions or trillions, WLD’s market exposure is comparatively modest. If buyers step in and selling pressure eases, the upside could be outsized relative to the token’s current liquidity profile.

From a price action perspective, Maelstrom’s note argues that WLD tends to move decisively when it moves at all. The firm projects a path to $5 by August, representing roughly a fivefold increase from a current price around $0.50 and implying a substantial, if volatile, upside against an otherwise cautious backdrop for smaller cap crypto assets.

These views come as Worldcoin remains a controversial and closely watched project within the broader AI economy, where investors weigh the potential utility of global identity networks against regulatory and privacy considerations, as well as the practical challenges of mass adoption.

Market context and what it could mean for investors

The AI rally has spilled over into equity markets and crypto alike, with AI‑driven earnings and investment narratives shaping sentiment across tech sectors. While OpenAI and Anthropic are poised to shape the AI software and services landscape, Worldcoin’s broader ambition sits at the intersection of identity verification and decentralized finance, a combination that could unlock novel on‑chain participation if consumer trust and data privacy concerns are addressed effectively.

For traders and long‑term holders, the key will be watching how any large corporate purchasing of WLD, particularly by Eightco ORBS or similar entities, interacts with the token’s unlocking cadence and market liquidity. The July 24 unlock reduction is a tangible near‑term event to monitor, as it could alter the supply‑demand balance in a market that has shown sensitivity to token flow dynamics.

As the AI IPO narrative evolves, investors may increasingly treat WLD as a test case for how digital identity and tokenized access could intersect with mainstream AI monetization. If the catalysts highlighted by Maelstrom begin to take hold, WLD could emerge from a low‑volatility phase into a more responsive trading regime, though both upside potential and downside risk remain highly contingent on broader regulatory, technological, and market developments.

What to watch next: the pace of private and strategic purchases in WLD, any shifts in Eightco ORBS’ capital deployment, and the actual timing and impact of the Worldcoin unlock changes going into late summer. These elements will shape whether the $5 target remains plausible or if the market requires a longer runway to assess Worldcoin’s role in the AI economy.

TRON revenue and XRP catalysts draw attention as investors compare opportunities across major crypto projects.

Tron news today is centered on one of the most impressive revenue figures in the blockchain space, $604 million in network revenue, putting TRX firmly back in the institutional conversation. 

The XRP price prediction for June 2026, meanwhile, is defined by a symmetrical triangle breakdown, oversold RSI readings, and a market waiting on the CLARITY Act to deliver the catalyst XRP has been promised all year. Both projects have fundamentals worth respecting. But when the question is which of the top crypto coins is offering a genuinely asymmetric, structured, and frictionless opportunity right now, the answer is not TRX or XRP. It is BlockDAG, with a Legacy Sale that has eliminated every barrier between a buyer and a defined, published profit structure.

Top crypto coins conversations always circle back to the same question: where is the entry that actually changes things? BlockDAG’s Legacy Sale answers it directly. No transfers. No caps. No excuses.

BlockDAG legacy sale now open: The entry that needs no catalyst

While Tron news today rewards patience and the XRP price prediction waits on Washington, BlockDAG’s Legacy Sale is doing something neither of those top crypto coins can offer: delivering a completely defined, completely frictionless opportunity with a published entry and a published exit. Buy BDAG at $0.00000044. Register directly from your dashboard. No transfers required, no complicated claim process, no withdrawal caps throttling your returns. Participate in the Buyback Program at $0.001. Walk away with uncapped daily sell limits and full control of your position from start to finish.

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This is what separates BlockDAG from every other entry in the top crypto coins conversation. The Legacy Sale does not ask anyone to trust a roadmap. It does not ask to wait for a Senate vote or hope a technical pattern resolves correctly. It gives a number, $0.00000044 in, $0.001 on the buyback, backed by a live ecosystem that is generating real activity right now. 

On top of that, The BlockDAG Casino is also live, driving on-chain demand through continuous wagering volume. BDUSD, the native beta stablecoin, is operational: deposit BDAG, mint BDUSD, use it across supported flows, repay and withdraw. Miners are deploying. The mainnet is processing. Every layer of the ecosystem is moving, and the Legacy Sale sits at the center of all of it.

Tron News Today: Revenue giant, incremental upside

Tron news today is anchored by a number that demands attention: $604 million in network revenue, cementing TRON’s position as one of the highest-earning blockchains in the world. USDT-on-TRON remains the world’s most-used stablecoin route, and the network is actively building toward its next phase, a quantum-resistant mainnet upgrade with a testnet expected in Q2 2026, a $1 billion AI fund targeting on-chain AI infrastructure, and the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act receiving Justin Sun’s public backing following its Senate Banking Committee vote in May 2026. Anchorage Digital has also integrated TRON custody, enabling US institutional investors to hold and trade TRX in a compliant, regulated environment.

Tron news today paints the picture of a mature, revenue-generating network with strong stablecoin dominance and growing institutional legitimacy. But maturity has a price. TRX trades at $0.34, and its upside trajectory, forecast between $0.35 and $0.57 through the second half of 2026, reflects a project consolidating its position rather than breaking new ground. Tron news today is good. It is not transformative.

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XRP price prediction: Waiting on a catalyst

The XRP price prediction for June 2026 is caught in a structural bind. XRP is trading near $1.26, below its 7-day, 14-day, and 30-day moving averages, with RSI at 27.55, firmly in oversold territory, and a symmetrical triangle pattern that has tested the upper trendline multiple times since March without breaking through. The CLARITY Act is the single most important variable in the XRP price prediction right now. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14, rallied XRP above $1.55, then watched it fade back down. The White House has set a July 4 target, and until that legislative clock delivers, the XRP price prediction base case remains a sideways range of $1.26 to $1.46.

The XRP price prediction bull case has genuine substance, ETF inflows are holding, RLUSD is growing as a native stablecoin, and XRPL transaction volume is climbing. But the XRP price prediction requires legislative timing, macro cooperation, and a short squeeze to fire simultaneously. Credible thesis. Uncertain timeline.

The final take

For more information, visit the official website, presale, and follow the latest updates on Telegram and Discord.

The crypto market succumbed to a wave of selling pressure and liquidations on Thursday, with bitcoin BTC$63,729.63 tumbling to around $61,300 at 02:00 UTC before recovering to as high as $64,680. It recently traded around $62,500.

Ether (ETH) lost 3% since midnight UTC, now trading at around $1,750. Several other altcoins saw deeper declines, with NEAR, ZEC and JUP all losing more than 13%.

The downside move triggered a wave of liquidations with $1.7 billion worth of futures positions being forcibly closed due to the slide, $750 million worth of that can be attributed to bitcoin, $390 million to ether.

Investors appear to be deserting crypto to pursue the AI narrative in traditional markets, exacerbating the geopolitical uncertainty and a fundamentally broken market structure that has failed to recover from October’s leverage wipeout.

Derivatives positioning

• Total 24-hour futures volume rose 2.9% to $305 billion, an increase that reflects elevated but not panicked activity. More telling is open interest, which declined 8.5% to $111.4 billion, a sign that leveraged positions are being unwound rather than fresh bets being added.
• Liquidations have been severe: Roughly $3 billion in leveraged positions have been wiped out over the past two days, with the 24-hour tally alone reaching $1.7 billion.
• Bitcoin’s open interest has pulled back to 766,000 BTC from yesterday’s record highs above 800,000 BTC. The decline suggests the price plunge has flushed out a significant portion of leveraged longs and that bears are not aggressively building new directional bets, at least not in BTC. The same dynamic holds for ether (ETH) and XRP.
• Solana is a notable exception. Open interest in SOL surged to a record 72.16 million tokens even as prices declined, a combination that typically signals an influx of short positions. The sentiment is understandable given SOL dropped below its February low while BTC, ETH and XRP held above theirs.
• TRX and ADA are also seeing open interest rise as their prices fall, suggesting similar short-side accumulation in those markets.
• Derivatives’ broader tone confirms the bearish tilt. The 24-hour cumulative volume delta across the top 20 tokens is negative, meaning traders are selling at market prices rather than limit orders. This active, aggressive bearish participation suggests potential for deeper losses.
• Implied volatility is rising in tandem. Volmex’s 30-day implied volatility indexes for bitcoin (BVIV) and ether (EVIV) have surged over the past three sessions, reflecting growing demand for options-based hedging and heightened expectations of continued price swings.
• Put skews have strengthened in both bitcoin and ether, signaling that investors are willing to pay a premium for downside protection. The $60,000 strike put on Deribit carries over $1 billion in notional open interest. As spot prices approach that strike, large position adjustments become increasingly likely, which could amplify volatility.
• The $55,000 put was the most actively traded options contract in the past 24 hours. The message from derivatives markets is unambiguous: Sentiment is bearish.

Token talk

• The altcoin market underperformed crypto majors on Thursday. Even recent darling HYPE lost 12% after hitting a record high earlier this week.
• DASH, ENA and FET also fell by more than 10% since midnight UTC as the lack of liquidity in altcoin pairs reared its head again.
• Market depth is typically much lower on altcoin pairs than on bitcoin or ether, so the amount of capital it takes to move prices in either direction is relatively low. Pair that with a wave of liquidations and the asset simply can’t maintain the level of supply, causing exaggerated price moves to the downside.
• Monero (XMR), despite being down by 4% since midnight, is still in the black over 24 hours. Trading at $347, it is seemingly unperturbed by the broader market crash.
• Much of the altcoin trajectory will depend on bitcoin’s ability to hold above $60,000. A break below that could trigger further liquidations, which would weigh more on the illiquid altcoin pairs.

Strategy’s bitcoin treasury is back in focus as Bitcoin trades below the company’s average acquisition price, renewing questions about the long-running treasury thesis led by Michael Saylor. Strategy, the parent of MicroStrategy, holds 843,706 BTC acquired at an average price of $75,699 per coin, delivering a total cost basis of about $63.8 billion. With the latest downturn, the reserve’s value is estimated at roughly $52.6 billion, producing an unrealized loss of about $11.2 billion on paper, according to Strategy’s dashboard.

The dip comes as Strategy also faces headwinds in its secondary equity instrument and broader market dynamics. The company’s variable-rate perpetual preferred stock, STRC, has traded below its stated $100 par value and hovered around $94.6 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Strategy’s stock (formerly under the MSTR ticker) was down about 1.5% in pre-market trading, trading near $124.70, according to Yahoo Finance data.

The paper loss compounds scrutiny of Strategy’s bitcoin-treasury model at a time when Bitcoin itself has faced renewed selling pressure. In the same period, Strategy disclosed selling 32 BTC, its first sale since 2022. That move followed a prior tax-related sale cycle, and it comes alongside broader market indications that BTC’s price swings are testing the resilience of large-scale corporate treasury strategies.

Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains central to the debate around corporate BTC reserves. At the time of reporting, BTC traded around $63,157, down about 4.7% on the day and 13.8% over the past week, with a roughly 20% slide over the past month, according to data aggregated by TradingView. The drawdown has coincided with a broader wave of outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which Cointelegraph noted recently reached about $4.4 billion over the last 13 trading days.

In a bid to calibrate the market narrative, Strategy founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor pushed back against a purely bearish read on the holdings. In a post on X, he argued that exchange-traded fund outflows were “pressuring BTC,” while capital markets have redirected around $400 billion into AI infrastructure over the past six months. “This is a capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment. Volatility creates opportunity,” Saylor wrote.

Some market observers framed the STRC price move as a function of typical preferred-stock dynamics rather than an indication of underlying problems. “STRC’s $100 par value is not a price floor. It’s the stated value used for liquidation preference and certain redemption provisions,” noted investor Scott Melker, adding that a mild discount to par—about 5%—reflects investors demanding a higher yield or pricing risk, which is a conventional feature of preferred stocks.

“A 5% discount to par is not evidence that something is broken. It’s evidence that investors are demanding a higher yield, pricing risk, or reacting to market conditions – exactly what preferred stocks do.”

On the other side of the spectrum, veteran commentator Peter Schiff argued that declines in STRC could force Material adjustments in Strategy’s cash flow to maintain its dividend commitments, potentially accelerating bitcoin sales to fund payments if needed. Schiff’s take frames the situation as a potential cash-flow squeeze rather than a fundamental attack on BTC value.

The broader market backdrop helps illuminate why Strategy’s next moves matter beyond a single balance sheet line item. Standard Chartered analysts have suggested that a local Bitcoin bottom might be forming, contingent on Strategy’s next purchases. Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, noted that a recovery could hinge on a tangible bid from Strategy. “I would see it as a tentative sign the low has been printed, and given that logic, suspect selling over the weekend will be muted,” Kendrick said. He even floated the possibility that a sizable purchase—320 BTC (roughly 10x the recent sale) or 3,200 BTC (100x the sale)—could substantively signal a market bottom.

Key takeaways

• Strategy’s Bitcoin reserve stands at 843,706 BTC with an average cost basis of $75,699 per coin, totaling about $63.8 billion; current value sits near $52.6 billion, implying an unrealized loss of roughly $11.2 billion per the company’s dashboard.
• STRC, Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock, trades around $94.6, well below its $100 par value, illustrating how market conditions affect the willingness to issue new preferred stock to fund further BTC acquisitions.
• Strategy recently sold 32 BTC, marking its first sale since 2022; the firm previously executed a tax-related sale in 2022 and followed with a sizable repurchase two days later.
• Bitcoin’s price hovered around $63,157 at the time of reporting, down roughly 4.7% on the day and 13.8% over the past week, with spot BTC ETF outflows contributing to the broader sell-off.
• Analysts at Standard Chartered suggest the market may be approaching a local bottom contingent on Strategy’s next moves; a fresh BTC-buy signal could bolster confidence in a floor being formed.

Strategy’s treasury in context: what’s changed and what to watch

Source lines and data points cited above come from Strategy’s official dashboard, Strategy.com, and related public disclosures; price movements and ETF flow figures are drawn from market trackers and Cointelegraph reporting. The latest price data for BTC and ETF outflows are as reported by TradingView and Cointelegraph’s coverage on ETF activity.

As the year unfolds, the market will be watching for a concrete signal from Strategy—whether a renewed wave of BTC purchases or a shift toward reinforcing liquidity without significant additional bitcoin accumulation. Such moves will not only influence Strategy’s financials but could also reverberate through investor sentiment around corporate BTC programs and the broader crypto market.

To say bitcoin BTC$63,591.97 bears are having a great time would be an understatement. The cryptocurrency has shed 14% in seven days, falling to levels not seen since the crash in February. Broader crypto markets have taken an equally brutal beating, and most analysts say the situation could deteriorate further if BTC breaks below the critical $60,000 threshold.

Amid the gloom, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, sees a different picture.

This week’s crypto pain was real, Kendrick said, but he thinks “the low is almost in.” His case rests on three pillars:

Strategy (MSTR) repeats its 2022 operation: When Strategy last sold BTC, in December 2022, it bought back more than it sold just two days later. Kendrick expects the firm to do the same after having sold 32 BTC last week. It could potentially buy as much as 100 times that amount, he said in an email, adding that, if confirmed next Monday, he’d treat it as a tentative signal that the low is in.

ETF holdings are sturdier than feared: The 11 spot ETFs listed in the U.S. have seen a net outflow of $5 billion over the past three weeks. Yet, if we zoom out, the holdings have barely moved. The cumulative net inflow since inception in early 2024 is back to $54.2 billion, right where it was earlier this year. “They went up from 682k and then back down to now 674k (broadly unchanged). This tells me that ETF holdings are more structurally strong than I had feared in February,” he said.

Liquidations are mostly done: bitcoin futures bets worth $1.5 billion have been liquidated by exchanges. That figure is similar to January’s, and with BTC already badly underperforming equities this year, the pool of leveraged longs left to liquidate is smaller than before, he argued.

The takeaway? There are too many “Ifs” involved to predict an exact bottom, but according to Kendrick, accumulating here makes more sense than waiting for certainty.

“I think when we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k and ETH at $4k we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted,” he said. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

Today’s signal

The weekly bitcoin price chart is suggesting the same as Standard Chartered’s Kendrick: The bear market is probably in its final stages and the bottom may be near.

The cryptocurrency is trading close to its 200-week simple moving average. That’s noteworthy because previous bear markets ended around the same average, as the green arrows on the chart show.

So, if past is a guide, then a bottom may happen soon. Note, however, that past patterns are no guarantee of future performance.

Russia sanctioned a British teenager for his role in exposing the alleged use of ruble-pegged stablecoin A7A5 in funding the war effort against Ukraine.

Alexander Browder, 17, penned a report for foreign policy and national security think tank The Henry Jackson Society, which the Russian Foreign Ministry described as spreading “defamatory speculations and false information.”

Browder, who is the son of Vladimir Putin critic Bill Browder, was sanctioned along with three other U.K. nationals and Washington Post reporter Catherine Belton.

He described it as “a badge of honour” in a post on X on Wednesday.

The A7A5 stablecoin was designed to bypass sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.