Key takeaways

• Bitcoin remains vulnerable as hawkish Federal Reserve guidance, rising Treasury yields, and inconsistent ETF demand continue to dampen investor sentiment.
• With BTC trading below key moving averages and lacking strong buying momentum, the near-term bias remains bearish. 

Bitcoin (BTC) remained under pressure on Thursday, trading below the $64,000 level as investors reacted to a hawkish message from the U.S. Federal Reserve and mixed institutional demand signals.

The leading cryptocurrency continues to struggle for momentum, with risk appetite fading across financial markets after the Fed signaled a tougher policy outlook despite leaving interest rates unchanged.

Federal Reserve maintains rates but adopts hawkish tone

The U.S. Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% during its latest policy meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.

While the decision itself was widely expected, markets were focused on the Fed’s forward guidance and updated economic projections.

The central bank removed language suggesting a bias toward further monetary easing and instead signaled support for maintaining higher rates for longer. Policymakers now project the federal funds rate to end the year at 3.8%, up from the 3.4% forecast issued in March.

The revised outlook prompted traders to increase expectations for tighter monetary policy, with markets now pricing in nearly an 85% probability of a rate hike in December.

As a result, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar moved higher, reducing demand for risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains mixed, offering little support for a sustained recovery.

According to CoinGlass data, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of $82.20 million on Wednesday, following:

The inconsistent flow pattern, coupled with a slight bearish bias, suggests institutional investors remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Should ETF outflows continue or accelerate in the coming sessions, Bitcoin could face additional downside pressure.

Bitcoin price outlook: Relief bounce shows signs of weakness

Recent price action indicates that Bitcoin’s rebound from oversold conditions may have been driven more by seller exhaustion than by renewed buying demand.

Bitcoin continues to trade within a bearish short-term structure and remains below several key moving averages.

BTC is currently trading below the 50-day EMA at $70,042, the 100-day EMA at $72,839, and the 200-day EMA at $78,174.

The failure to reclaim these levels reinforces the broader downtrend and highlights persistent overhead selling pressure.

Additionally, the previously broken uptrend support near $73,833 has now turned into a major resistance zone.

Technical indicators continue to favor caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remains below 50, indicating ongoing bearish momentum without yet reaching deeply oversold conditions.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, suggesting that recent rebounds may be corrective moves within a broader bearish trend rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery.

If Bitcoin attempts a rebound, traders will likely focus on several major resistance zones. The first major resistance at $64,004 could pave the way for higher hurdles at $70,042 – 50-day EMA

A move above these levels would be required to significantly improve the technical outlook.

The win rate of a cycle-aware approach is lower than buy-and-hold, winning not by being right more often, but by avoiding the months when bitcoin loses 20%, 30%, or 40%. Those months cluster, and stepping aside during them is not timing the market; it is about reading the cyclical structure of the asset.

We have made three public, timestamped market calls since 2022: the October 2022 cycle bottom, the July 2023 projection of a $125,000 target and the October 2025 bear signal, each grounded in the same signal framework. The methodology is not infallible. But it is systematic, auditable and structurally better suited to bitcoin’s cyclical nature than the passive approach most advisors currently deploy.

Bitcoin rewards those who understand its cycle. Advisors who treat it like any other asset are leaving risk-adjusted returns on the table and exposing clients to drawdowns that, in practice, end portfolios rather than weather them.

– Markus Thielen, CEO, 10x Research

Ask an Expert

If blockchain technology succeeds, are investors owning the right things?

For years, investors assumed that if a blockchain ecosystem grew, its native token would naturally appreciate. Increasingly, I’m not convinced that’s always true. Technology can become indispensable while value accrues elsewhere to sequencers, applications, stablecoin issuers or liquidity layers.

A Strategy director has sold nearly $9 million worth of company shares over the past three months as pressure on the firm’s preferred stock offerings and concerns over future dividend funding continue to weigh on MSTR.

According to a recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Strategy director Jarrod Patten exercised options to acquire 1,500 Class A shares at a strike price of $18.236 and immediately sold them on the open market at roughly $134 per share, generating a profit of around $200K.

The transaction adds to a steady pattern of insider selling. SEC filings show Patten has disposed of 55,750 MSTR shares during the last three months, with total proceeds approaching $9 million. His latest sale comes as Strategy stock remains under pressure following a sharp decline in both Bitcoin and the company’s preferred securities.

Following the transaction, Patten still holds 28,406 Class A shares, positions across several Series A perpetual preferred stock offerings, and 44,250 unexercised director stock options.

Dividend concerns have moved into focus

Attention has increasingly shifted toward Strategy’s ability to support dividend obligations tied to its preferred stock products.

According to market maker QCP, Strategy’s current liquidity position can fund dividend payments for roughly seven and a half months. 

As crypto.news reported, QCP said the company could eventually face a decision between raising additional capital, diluting shareholders further, or selling Bitcoin if alternative funding sources become less attractive.

The concern emerged shortly after Strategy completed several balance-sheet transactions. QCP noted that the company repurchased nearly $1.5 billion of convertible notes due in 2029 while raising approximately $200 million through MSTR stock sales. Part of those proceeds was later used to acquire another $100 million worth of Bitcoin.

Investor attention has also centered on Strategy’s preferred securities. STRC, the company’s Stretch preferred stock, recently fell to a record low of $89, leaving it about 11% below its intended $100 value and increasing scrutiny of the firm’s capital structure.

Earlier this month, Strategy disclosed the sale of 32 BTC valued at approximately $2.5 million to fund STRC dividend payments. The transaction marked the first known Bitcoin sale by the company after years of maintaining a strict accumulation strategy.

Analyst targets remain unchanged despite weakness

Selling activity by company insiders has continued throughout 2026. Earlier filings showed Chief Executive Officer Phong Le, Chief Financial Officer Andrew Kang, and former Executive Vice President Wei-Ming Shao collectively sold millions of dollars’ worth of MSTR shares in March. Kang and Patten reduced their holdings as the stock weakened despite record highs in major U.S. equity indexes.

MSTR closed 5.09% lower at $116.56 on Wednesday as risk assets weakened after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% while signaling potential tightening risks for 2026. The stock extended its decline on Thursday, falling another 2.1% to $114.04. With those losses, MSTR is now down roughly 31% over the past month.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded near $63,850 at press time after dropping nearly 2% in the past 24 hours.

Despite the recent decline, analysts at TD Cowen, Citigroup, Bernstein, and BTIG have maintained their existing bullish ratings on MSTR shares. Bernstein analysts reiterated a buy rating and kept a 12-month price target of $450, while TD Cowen targets $350, Citigroup holds at $260, and BTIG maintains a target of $250.

TLDR

• Jefferies launched coverage of Iren (IREN) with a Buy recommendation and $79 price objective; shares were hovering near $58.11.
• The stock rallied approximately 5% during premarket hours Thursday after the bullish analyst report.
• Analysts emphasized IREN’s approximately 6 gigawatt land portfolio and fully integrated GPU cloud infrastructure.
• The firm has secured a five-year, $9.7 billion agreement with Microsoft and a $3.4 billion Nvidia AI cloud partnership, aiming for $3.1 billion in yearly recurring revenue.
• Revenue at IREN surged 105% in the trailing twelve-month period as the business shifted from cryptocurrency mining operations to AI infrastructure services.

Shares of Iren (IREN) gained approximately 5% during Thursday’s premarket session following Jefferies’ initiation of coverage featuring a Buy recommendation and a price objective of $79. Trading around $58.11 when the coverage began, the target represents potential upside of roughly 36%.

IREN Limited, IREN

Jefferies analyst Jonathan Petersen spearheaded the coverage launch, emphasizing IREN’s standing as a fully integrated AI cloud infrastructure company backed by an extensive powered land portfolio spanning approximately 6 gigawatts.

The investment firm underscored IREN’s strategic partnerships with Microsoft and Nvidia as fundamental pillars supporting the bullish thesis. Combined, these agreements are projected to generate $3.1 billion in recurring annual revenue.

The Microsoft partnership encompasses a five-year arrangement valued at $9.7 billion for Nvidia GB300 GPU infrastructure, centered at IREN’s 200 MW Childress location. The deal structure features a $1.9 billion advance payment alongside $3.65 billion in GPU financing carrying approximately 6% interest.

According to Jefferies, this framework enables IREN to recover its $8.8 billion capital outlay during the contract period, delivering unlevered internal rates of return above 20%.

Additionally, IREN maintains a distinct $3.4 billion AI cloud partnership with Nvidia. Jefferies noted these strategic relationships position IREN alongside industry players like CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS) in the competitive landscape.

Transformation From Cryptocurrency Mining to AI Cloud Services

IREN originally operated predominantly as a Bitcoin mining operation. The organization has successfully transitioned into a vertically integrated AI cloud infrastructure provider, a transformation Jefferies characterized as a “compelling strategic pivot.”

Revenue climbed 105% during the trailing twelve months, demonstrating the velocity of this operational shift.

Controlling its own real estate and data center facilities provides IREN with operational agility to accommodate diverse customer requirements — ranging from powered shell environments to comprehensive GPU cloud implementations, according to Jefferies.

Geographic Growth Into European and Australian Markets

Beyond its current operations in the United States, IREN recently finalized the purchase of Ingenostrum, S.L., operating as Nostrum Group, a Spanish AI data center developer. This transaction delivers approximately 490 megawatts of secured, grid-connected capacity and represents IREN’s inaugural expansion into Europe.

IREN has also executed a transmission connection agreement for a projected 800 MW data center facility in Bundey, South Australia — anticipated to rank among the largest data center installations across the Asia-Pacific geography.

After the Australian development announcement, B. Riley elevated its price target on IREN to $96 while maintaining a Buy rating. Macquarie reaffirmed an Outperform stance with a $90 price objective.

Needham has adopted a more conservative perspective, reducing its financial estimates for IREN based on expectations of a slower AI cloud revenue acceleration extending through calendar year 2026 and diminished forecasts for Bitcoin-related contributions.

The stock has delivered approximately 493% returns over the preceding twelve-month period.

U.S. regulators have proposed requiring certain payment stablecoin issuers to verify customer identities under a new rule issued as part of the GENIUS Act framework.

The Federal Reserve Board said Thursday that it is seeking public comment on a joint proposal that would require covered stablecoin issuers to maintain effective Customer Identification Programs, or CIPs. 

The proposal was issued alongside the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the National Credit Union Administration.

An 117-page notice published by the agencies said the rule would implement provisions of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, known as the GENIUS Act. The proposal would formally treat permitted payment stablecoin issuers as financial institutions under the Bank Secrecy Act and require them to maintain customer identification procedures.

Comments on the proposal will be accepted for 60 days after publication in the Federal Register.

Rule would apply bank style identity checks to stablecoin issuers

The agencies said permitted payment stablecoin issuers would need to collect and verify customer information before opening an account relationship. Required information would generally include a customer’s name, address, date of birth or formation, and identification number.

The proposal would require issuers to adopt risk-based procedures designed to establish a reasonable belief that they know the true identity of each customer. Regulators said those procedures should take into account an issuer’s size, business model, customer base, account types, and methods used to open accounts.

“This is the next step to ensure that permitted payment stablecoin issuers are fully integrated into Bank Secrecy Act regulations,” NCUA Chairman Kyle Hauptman said, adding that the proposal mirrors existing customer identification requirements used by credit unions and sets standards for identifying and verifying account holders.

“It sets clear standards for identifying and verifying account holders and safeguards the interests of credit unions and their members. By establishing robust customer identification requirements, we are reinforcing our commitment to preventing money laundering and terrorist financing in our financial system.”

The proposal follows earlier NCUA rulemakings related to payment stablecoins. The agency said it issued a proposed rule last month covering operational and risk management standards for licensed payment stablecoin issuers and released a separate proposal in February 2026 governing applications from issuers under its jurisdiction.

Regulators exclude most secondary market transactions

The proposed rule draws a distinction between direct dealings with a stablecoin issuer and transactions that occur elsewhere in the market.

Regulators said customer identification requirements would apply when a user establishes a formal relationship with a permitted payment stablecoin issuer through activities such as issuance, redemption, custody, reserve management, or other authorized services.

The agencies also proposed that simply holding or transferring a payment stablecoin would not create an account relationship with the issuer. The document states that secondary market activity, including transfers between users and transactions conducted through intermediaries, generally would not trigger customer identification obligations for the stablecoin issuer.

The agencies said applying customer identification requirements to every stablecoin transfer could be impractical because issuers often do not have direct relationships with users participating in secondary market transactions.

The proposal arrives days after a bipartisan group of U.S. senators urged the Treasury Department to preserve a role for state regulators under the GENIUS Act. In a June 16 letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, lawmakers led by Senator Cynthia Lummis asked Treasury to provide clearer guidance on how states can obtain certification for their own stablecoin regulatory frameworks.

The GENIUS Act allows issuers with no more than $10 billion in outstanding stablecoins to operate under certified state regulatory regimes. The customer identification proposal states that its requirements would apply not only to federally supervised issuers but also to stablecoin issuers operating under eligible state frameworks established under the law.