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Iran is using a $7.8 billion crypto shadow economy to bypass global sanctions

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Iran's crypto ecosystem (Chainalysis)

Fresh U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have drawn new attention to a financial network Tehran has built in parallel to its battered banking system: bitcoin mining and a fast-growing stablecoin economy.

Iran legalized crypto mining in 2019, allowing licensed operators to use subsidized electricity in exchange for selling mined BTC to the central bank. Bitcoin has served as a tool for paying for imports and settling trade outside the dollar system, even if indirectly.

Estimates in recent years have put Iran’s share of global bitcoin mining power between 2% and 5%, though much of the activity operates out of public view.

Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis found that Iran’s crypto ecosystem reached $7.78 billion in 2025, growing faster than the year before. That figure is as large as the GDP of some smaller countries such as the Maldives, or Liechtenstein.

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Activity often spiked around military clashes and domestic unrest, including last year’s 12-day conflict with Israel, according to Chainalysis.

Iran's crypto ecosystem (Chainalysis)
Iran’s crypto ecosystem (Chainalysis)

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the primary branch of the country’s military, has since deepened its role in the space. Chainalysis estimates IRGC-linked addresses accounted for more than 50% of total Iranian crypto inflows in the fourth quarter of 2025, with over $3 billion in value received last year.

Those figures reflect only wallets publicly tied to sanctions listings, suggesting the true footprint may be larger.

Adoption mechanics

Stablecoins also play a key role.

Separate analysis by Elliptic found Iran’s central bank accumulated at least $507 million in USDT in 2025, likely to steady the rial and finance trade. That effort has mostly failed, with data showing that the rial has lost more than 96% of its value against the USD.

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Iran's USDT value (Elliptic)
Iran’s USDT value (Elliptic)

At the same time, ordinary Iranians have turned to bitcoin. During recent protests and an internet blackout, withdrawals from local exchanges to personal wallets rose sharply.

Read more: Iran’s rial collapse mirrors Lebanon’s crisis, driving citizens to bitcoin

If conflict disrupts power grids, mining output could dip in the short term. The Iranian state is believed to be mining BTC at around $1,300 per coin, which it then sells at current market prices. It’s unclear whether the state has maintained any bitcoin reserves, as there is no treasury dashboard and no official disclosure of holdings.

In practice, mining turns cheap domestic energy into an asset that can move across borders. A licensed miner mints new bitcoin and then sends them to the central bank of Iran. The bank can then transfer it to an overseas counterparty to pay for machinery, fuel or consumer goods without routing funds through U.S.-controlled banks.

While the transactions settle on a public blockchain, the counterparties can remain opaque.

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The same pattern appears in stablecoins. USDT, which is pegged to the dollar, has become a standard settlement tool in sanctioned economies because it offers price stability and faster transfers than bitcoin.

However, it’s not always easy to hide such transactions. Crypto exchange Binance recently found itself embroiled in accusations that it fired investigators who raised concerns about funds moving through the exchange to sanctioned, Iran-linked entities. This led to nine U.S. Senate Democrats asking the Treasury and DOJ to probe Binance’s illicit finance controls.

Geopolitical risks

Chainalysis data shows that Iranian crypto activity correlates with political flashpoints, including missile exchanges and internal protests. During periods of unrest, exchange outflows rise as users pull funds into private wallets.

For the IRGC, crypto offers another channel to move value across its network of affiliates and commercial fronts. Chainalysis reported that inflows to IRGC-linked addresses totaled $2 billion in 2024 and exceeded $3 billion in 2025.

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The renewed military campaign, which has seen the IRGC retaliate against U.S. bases in various countries in the Middle East, adds fresh risk to this system. Large mining operations require steady power. Iran has imposed seasonal bans in the past to ease strain on the grid.

A sustained conflict that damages infrastructure could reduce the hash rate or mining capacity tied to the country, though the global bitcoin network would likely adjust over time as miners elsewhere pick up the slack.

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Crypto World

Crypto Treasury Firms Likely to Consolidate in 2026, Says Exec

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Crypto Breaking News

The crypto treasury market is entering a phase of consolidation as a broad downturn tightens liquidity and pushes balance sheets toward NAV discipline. Industry executive Wojciech Kaszycki, chief strategy officer at BTCS, argues that the combination of cash-generating operations—such as validator services for blockchain networks and offerings in public and private credit—gives treasury firms a distinct advantage over those that merely accumulate crypto. The sector experienced a market-wide downturn in 2025, with many treasuries’ stock prices dipping below the book value of the crypto assets on their balance sheets, underscoring the appeal of scale and diversification in a price-sensitive environment. As the cycle remains challenged, strategic mergers and acquisitions are seen as a plausible path to accelerate recovery and create greater resilience.

Key takeaways

  • The crypto treasury sector is likely to consolidate in 2025–2026 as firms seek scale to weather a protracted downturn and NAV pressure.
  • Operating businesses that generate cash flow—such as validator services for networks and credit instruments—provide a durable income stream and a competitive edge over passive holders.
  • Tokenized real-world assets, especially tokenized public and private credit, could become major revenue sources and usable collateral on DeFi platforms.
  • RWAs are expected to grow over the next 24 months, with tokenization potentially expanding access to credit markets on blockchain rails.
  • Public statements from leaders in the field, plus moves by index providers, signal a continued push to convert crypto treasuries into diversified, income-generating vehicles rather than pure asset pools.

Market context: The wider crypto market has faced liquidity strains and risk-off sentiment, influencing how treasury-focused firms balance crypto exposure with income-generating assets. Tokenized assets and DeFi-based lending and borrowing present new ways to monetize crypto holdings, but scale and governance remain critical concerns as regulators watch the sector closely.

Why it matters

For investors, the shift from pure custody to diversified, income-producing strategies in crypto treasuries could reshape risk profiles and yield expectations. Firms that blend crypto accrual with fixed-income and tokenized credit instruments may deliver steadier cash flows even when crypto prices underperform. This shift also underscores a broader trend toward integrating traditional finance-style revenue sources with blockchain-native assets, potentially broadening the investor base beyond hardcore crypto enthusiasts.

From a builder’s perspective, the push toward tokenized real-world assets and RWAs highlights a need for robust tokenization platforms, secure on-chain collateral mechanisms, and interoperable DeFi layers. If tokenized credit can be reliably originated, securitized, and audited, crypto treasuries could access new pools of capital while offering investors diversified exposure across both digital assets and traditional credit risk—and doing so with increased transparency and liquidity on-chain.

Policy and market infrastructure players are also paying attention. The debate over whether major indices should include crypto-focused treasuries or tokenized credit products continues, with MSСI and other index providers weighing the case for broader crypto exposure through fixed-income-like instruments, a stance that could influence flows and valuation benchmarks. The narrative is not just about price appreciation; it’s about building a durable ecosystem where crypto treasuries function as diversified financial platforms rather than speculative holdings.

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What to watch next

  • Watch for consolidation announcements among crypto treasury players as 2025–2026 market conditions evolve and NAV pressures persist.
  • Track progress in tokenizing real-world assets and the adoption of tokenized public and private credit as DeFi collateral or liquidity channels.
  • Monitor MSCI or other index providers’ commentary or actions regarding crypto treasury companies and RWAs, which could influence institutional access to the sector.
  • Follow regulatory developments around tokenized debt, on-chain collateral standards, and cross-border credit instruments used by treasuries.
  • Observe liquidity trends in DeFi lending and borrowing protocols linked to tokenized assets, which may shape demand for treasury-based credit products.

Sources & verification

  • Interviews and comments from Wojciech Kaszycki, chief strategy officer at BTCS, regarding consolidation and the role of cash-flow-generating operations.
  • Analysis of the 2025 market downturn affecting crypto treasury stock valuations relative to crypto holdings on balance sheets (referenced in related industry coverage).
  • Research and discussion around tokenized real-world assets, particularly tokenized public and private credit, and their potential use as DeFi collateral.
  • MSCI correspondence and potential considerations for including crypto treasury players or RWAs in its indices, as cited in industry discussions.
  • RWA.XYZ private credit overview and related on-chain accessibility of tokenized credit markets.

Market reaction and consolidation in crypto treasuries

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) treasuries, the subset of crypto asset managers that hold substantial balances of digital assets while simultaneously running revenue-generating operations, stand at a crossroads. The central argument advanced by Kaszycki is that the operating backbone of treasury firms—validator services that secure and govern blockchain networks, and a suite of credit-related offerings—provides a recurring cash flow that pure hodling strategies cannot match. This cash flow, in turn, enables strategic investments in distressed peers and underperforming units, potentially at prices that reflect fear rather than fundamental value. In effect, the downturn could be seen not just as a bear market, but as a field test for structural resilience built on diversified income rather than price appreciation alone.

The narrative is reinforced by a recent market backdrop where many crypto treasuries traded below the net asset value of their crypto holdings, a situation described as a “market-wide downturn” in 2025. The phenomenon underscores the tension between asset prices and the underlying value of on-chain and off-chain earnings streams. It also foreshadows the possibility that consolidations—mergers or acquisitions that combine cash-generating platforms with asset-light traders—could reshape the competitive landscape. In practical terms, a merger between two nimble players with complementary business models can generate outsized gains relative to the sum of their parts. Kaszycki’s line that “two plus two equals six or more” captures a belief that coordination and scale can enable quicker defense and faster growth in a market where many players struggle to maintain NAV integrity.

On the revenue side, tokenized credit markets and RWAs emerge as a core theme. Public and private credit instruments, already a fixture in traditional finance, are increasingly being considered for tokenization on blockchain rails. The idea is that tokenized real-world assets could be used as collateral for DeFi lending or borrowing protocols, providing liquidity and yield diversification for treasuries while tethering crypto-native products to broader credit markets. The concept of tokenized credit is not new, but the expectation that it will expand meaningfully over the next 24 months reflects a broader shift toward on-chain monetization of real-world risk. A companion thread to this development is the growth of tokenized private credit, which is already being showcased by specialized platforms and research projects that map the space as a new frontier for treasury income streams.

In parallel, Strategy—widely regarded as the largest Bitcoin treasury operator—has leveraged fixed-income and credit-like instruments to offer investors economic exposure to Bitcoin through a range of securities. The firm’s approach, highlighted in communications with index providers, demonstrates how crypto treasuries are trying to blend regular income with crypto exposure and risk controls. This dual focus positions treasuries to respond to index-provider dynamics, with MSCI and similar bodies exploring the potential inclusion of crypto-based instruments in mainstream benchmarks. The ongoing dialogue around RWAs and fixed-income instruments signals a convergence between crypto treasury strategies and traditional financial product design, which could be a meaningful driver of adoption, capital formation, and governance clarity for a broader audience.

Looking ahead, the tokenization narrative is anchored by industry references to RWAs as a growth engine. The idea that tokenized assets—particularly tokenized credit—could eventually underpin a meaningful portion of treasury revenue is compelling, but it hinges on robust standards for on-chain settlement, risk management, and regulatory clarity. Market observers are watching for concrete progress in the next 12–24 months, including progress reports on RWAs, tokenization platforms’ capabilities, and credible case studies of on-chain collateral use in DeFi lending markets. The RWA.XYZ private credit overview serves as a signal that such workflows are not merely theoretical; they are being tested in real markets, with potential implications for liquidity, pricing, and risk dispersion across the crypto ecosystem.

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Ultimately, the evolving picture of crypto treasuries reflects a broader trend toward financialization within the sector. While price cycles will continue to influence sentiment, the combination of cash-flow-generating operations, tokenized asset strategies, and disciplined NAV management could redefine the role of treasuries—from passive storage of value to active participants in a more complex, multi-asset financial landscape. The next chapters will likely be written by firms that can blend on-chain innovation with traditional risk controls, while keeping a clear eye on market cycles, regulatory developments, and the flow of capital between crypto markets and conventional finance.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Consolidation Likely Coming to Crypto Treasury Market: Crypto exec

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MicroStrategy, RWA, RWA Tokenization, Companies

The crypto treasury market is likely to consolidate this year amid the market downturn, as companies with operating businesses merge with or acquire those trading below net asset value (NAV), according to Wojciech Kaszycki, chief strategy officer of crypto infrastructure and treasury company BTCS.

Operating businesses, such as providing validator services for blockchain networks or offering public and private credit instruments, generate cash flow that give crypto treasury companies an edge over those that only accumulate crypto, Kaszycki told Cointelegraph.

This financial edge allows them to buy up companies treading water on their crypto investments or trading below the value of their crypto holdings, he said. Kaszycki added: 

“If you consolidate with another player, sometimes two plus two equals six or more, you can win faster, because everybody in this market trading below net asset value is struggling.”

Crypto treasury companies experienced a market-wide downturn in 2025, with many companies’ stock prices dropping below the value of the crypto held on their balance sheets. The crypto treasury decline preceded the crypto market crash in October. 

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