Bakkt reports a first-quarter 2026 net loss as revenue from crypto services contracts sharply. The digital-asset platform posted a net loss attributable to Bakkt of $11.7 million, or 41 cents per basic and diluted share, for the quarter ended March 31, compared with a net income of $7.7 million, or $1.13 per diluted share, a year earlier. Crypto services revenue declined 77% year over year to $243.6 million, a drop Bakkt attributed primarily to lower crypto trading volumes. However, the vast majority of that revenue is offset by crypto costs and brokerage fees, which totaled $242 million in the quarter. Excluding crypto costs, operating expenses were $18.5 million, roughly in line with a year ago. The company ended the period with $82.6 million in cash, including $69.6 million raised through equity offerings, and it carries no long-term debt.

In response to the subdued trading backdrop, Bakkt is repositioning itself around stablecoin payments and AI-enabled financial infrastructure. The quarter saw the company close its acquisition of Distributed Technologies Research on April 30, bringing in an AI-native payments engine and a stablecoin compliance stack. It has also signed a memorandum of understanding with Zoth, a stablecoin provider targeting high-volume cross-border payments across South Asia, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. Chief Executive Akshay Naheta framed the pivot as a long-term bet on the structural potential of stablecoin rails, pointing to evolving regulation as a potential tailwind for Bakkt’s licensed infrastructure.

Investor reaction to the results was mixed. Bakkt shares closed up 0.71% at $9.92 on the trading day, but slid in pre-market trading the following day, trading down about 9% to around $9.00 after the release. For context, the company’s full details and quarterly results were published in its earnings press release.

Key takeaways

• First-quarter 2026 net loss of $11.7 million, or 41 cents per share, versus a year-earlier net income of $7.7 million.
• Crypto services revenue collapsed 77% year over year to $243.6 million; crypto costs and brokerage fees totaled $242 million, offsetting much of that revenue.
• Cash position of $82.6 million at quarter end, with $69.6 million raised through equity offerings; Bakkt maintains no long-term debt.
• Strategic shift toward stablecoins and AI infrastructure, marked by the acquisition of Distributed Technologies Research and a signed MoU with Zoth to pursue large-scale stablecoin payments.

Bakkt’s pivot from trading rails to stablecoin infrastructure

The quarterly results underscore a deliberate strategic shift for Bakkt away from traditional crypto trading platforms toward what management portrays as durable, utility-focused infrastructure. The acquisition of Distributed Technologies Research, completed on April 30, adds an AI-native payments engine and a stablecoin compliance stack to Bakkt’s offerings. Taken together with the MoU with Zoth—aimed at enabling substantial cross-border payments via stablecoins—the moves suggest Bakkt is betting on a future where regulated, scalable digital-asset rails underpin mainstream payments activity rather than speculative trading volumes. In the earnings release, CEO Akshay Naheta framed stablecoin infrastructure as a transformative trend in global finance, noting potential regulatory catalysts such as the GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act could lift the value of Bakkt’s licensed platform.

Financials in flux: what changed, what stays uncertain

The pronounced drop in crypto services revenue highlights the volatility inherent in crypto markets and trading activity. Bakkt’s narrative around stabilization hinges on the idea that a stablecoin-focused, AI-enabled payments backbone can deliver steadier, enterprise-oriented demand. The company’s costs remained manageable on an operating basis, with expenses at $18.5 million, only slightly lower than a year ago, helping limit the impact of the revenue gap. The absence of long-term debt provides a clean balance sheet as Bakkt invests in its strategic pivot. The cash position, while modest, is strengthened by equity financing conducted during the period, which suggests a clear plan to fund growth initiatives without leverage. The near-perfect offset between revenue and crypto costs in the quarter illustrates a business where the top-line volatility of crypto trading did not translate into purely additive profit or loss, reinforcing the logic of a structural shift toward stablecoins and infrastructure services.

Broader market context: stablecoins as an infrastructure play

The Bakkt pivot sits within a broader industry narrative that has drawn increased attention from public markets. Stablecoin infrastructure firms are attracting investor interest as market participants seek regulated, scalable rails for digital-asset payments. In related market coverage, Circle Internet Group reported a strong quarter, with USDC in circulation rising to about $77 billion and on-chain transaction volumes surging to roughly $21.5 trillion, alongside a $222 million presale of its ARC token at a $3 billion fully diluted network valuation. Circle’s results also showed a 20% year-over-year rise in total revenue and reserve income to $694 million, underscoring how stablecoins and on-chain ecosystems are expanding beyond niche crypto trading into broader financial infrastructure. These dynamics help explain Bakkt’s strategic emphasis on stablecoins and enterprise-grade payments capabilities as a differentiating asset class in a crowded crypto landscape.

Bakkt’s efforts reflect an ongoing tension in the market: the need to translate crypto-adjacent activity into sustainable revenue streams while navigating an evolving regulatory framework that could unlock or constrain growth. The company’s emphasis on stablecoins and AI-enabled infrastructure aligns with a broader trend of institutional-grade entrants seeking regulated, scalable rails for payments and settlement, rather than relying on highly cyclical trading volumes. For investors and builders, the key question is whether Bakkt’s new architecture can achieve product-market fit at scale and whether stablecoin adoption by merchants and financial institutions can outpace the slowdown in direct crypto trading activity.

Looking ahead, observers will be watching Bakkt’s progression on several fronts: the traction of its AI-enabled payments engine, the commercial pipeline around the Zoth MoU, and the degree to which regulatory developments support or impede stablecoin infrastructure. In the near term, the company will also need to demonstrate that its balance sheet and liquidity posture can sustain ongoing pivot-related investments while delivering tangible product adoption and revenue growth beyond crypto services.

As Bakkt executes this transition, the broader market will also be assessing the pace at which stablecoins transition from ancillary tools to essential components of mainstream commerce. The coming quarters should reveal whether Bakkt’s recalibration translates into durable, recurring revenue from stablecoin rails and enterprise-grade financial infrastructure, or whether the company must further recalibrate in response to evolving market dynamics and regulatory clarity.

What to watch next: ongoing updates on Bakkt’s stablecoin and AI initiatives, the commercial outcomes of its DT Research integration and Zoth collaboration, and regulatory developments that could shape the viability of licensed infrastructure players in the digital-asset payments space.

Arthur Hayes, the chief investment officer of crypto-focused venture capital and investment fund Maelstrom, said the bull market is back and he is not waiting for confirmation.

Bitcoin BTC$80,621.04 found a bottom at $60,000 earlier this year, and retaking its October 2025 record of $126,000 is a “foregone conclusion,” Hayes wrote in a Substack essay on Monday. The largest cryptocurrency briefly rose above $82,000 on Tuesday and recently traded around $80,600. A return to the high from current levels would be a gain of about 55%.

Hayes, who also co-founded the BitMEX exchange, flagged $90,000 as the level where the rally turns explosive. At that point, writers of call options with higher strike prices would be forced to buy bitcoin to cover their positions, accelerating the advance. Call option writers are betting that the price will not rise above a certain level; buyers are betting that it will.

Hayes pointed to two tailwinds behind his targets.

The first is capital expenditure on AI, which, he said, has shifted from being funded by cash flow at the largest software companies to requiring credit creation by commercial banks and central banks. He flagged the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China loosening financial conditions to support the buildout, with Chinese banks specifically redirecting capital from real estate toward tech.

The second tailwind is the U.S.-Iran war, which has forced sovereign nations to rebuild domestic infrastructure and stockpile commodities rather than save in dollar assets.

“Higher for longer” is how Hayes framed the inflationary impact of the two combined.

War is inflationary, the AI buildout is inflationary, and the political will to print money to fund both is what produces the environment for bitcoin to outperform, he wrote. He pointed to bitcoin’s performance against the Nasdaq 100, the IGV software ETF and gold since the start of the war on Feb. 28 as evidence that the asset has already begun pricing the shift.

Hayes also disclosed Maelstrom’s altcoin positioning. The fund holds large positions in Hyperliquid’s HYPE token and Zcash’s ZEC, with NEAR identified as the next pick. The NEAR thesis, which he said he will explain in a follow-up essay, rests on the combination of the privacy narrative and the protocol’s intents-based architecture creating a positive cash flow.

“This will flip the script on the disastrous price performance of the token,” Hayes wrote.

Hayes also flagged two scenarios that would end the rally. The first is an irresponsible mega-AI IPO or merger in the U.S. or China that the market cannot absorb, snapping investors out of the manic phase.

The second occurs if the Democratic challenger in the 2028 U.S. presidential election runs on an anti-AI platform that promises to curtail the capex buildout, with the popularity of that message forcing lenders to reconsider whether credit keeps flowing to the sector.

The November 2026 mid-term elections could be a “slight speed bump” before then.

“It’s a bull market; close your eyes and press the button,” Hayes wrote. “There will be a time to sell, but it ain’t right now.”

Exodus Movement (EXOD) cut its bitcoin holdings by 1,076 BTC in the first quarter, while adding 5,068 SOL, as it moved more of its balance sheet into cash as the crypto wallet provider prepared to close its W3C payments deal.

The company held 628 BTC at the end of March, down from 1,704 BTC on Dec. 31, according to its latest quarterly filing. The value of those holdings fell to $42.8 million from $149.2 million.

Revenue fell 36.8% to $22.7 million in Q1 from $36 million a year earlier, according to Exodus’ earnings release. Net loss widened to $32.1 million from $12.9 million, driven in part by a $36.4 million loss on crypto.

Exodus’ solana holdings rose to 17,541 SOL from 12,473 SOL over the same period. Their fair value still fell to $1.5 million from $1.6 million over the crypto sell-off seen over the period.

In total, Exodus said it sold $73.2 million of cryptocurrency held during the quarter, and bought $962,000. The company said the increase in net sales for cash was tied to proceeds that will be used to fund the W3C acquisition.

“During Q1 2026, the Company has continued to sell digital assets to prepare for the next disbursement related to the W3C closing, and has set aside over $70 million in US dollar reserves for these obligations,” the filing reads.

Cash, cash equivalents and stablecoins rose to $74.4 million from $5.2 million at year-end. Total crypto and liquid assets held fell to $122.6 million from $161.6 million.

The filing does not break out sales by token. The balance sheet move was concentrated in bitcoin, with BTC down 63% and SOL up 41%. Bitcoin lost around 23% of its value in Q1, while SOL dropped more than 34% over the period.

Exodus closed its acquisition of Monavate and Baanx on May 1, adding card issuing and payments infrastructure to its self-custody business. The deal followed its $175 million agreement to buy W3C’s payments units and its push into stablecoin payments.

EXOD is down 3.1% in pre-market trading at $7.47.

Cryptocurrency transactions may look instant on the surface, but several important processes happen behind the scenes before funds officially reach another wallet.

When you send Bitcoin, Ethereum, or any other cryptocurrency, the transaction moves through a network of computers that verify, secure, and permanently record the transfer on a blockchain.

Understanding how this process works helps beginners avoid mistakes, understand gas fees, and gain confidence when using crypto wallets and decentralized applications.

This guide explains exactly what happens during a crypto transaction — step by step.

Understanding the Basics of a Crypto Transaction

A crypto transaction is the transfer of digital assets from one wallet address to another using blockchain technology.

Unlike traditional banking systems, crypto transactions do not rely on a central authority like a bank or payment processor. Instead, decentralized networks of validators or miners verify transactions and maintain the blockchain.

Every transaction includes:

• The sender’s wallet address
• The receiver’s wallet address
• The amount being sent
• A digital signature
• A network fee (gas fee)

Once verified, the transaction becomes part of the blockchain permanently.

Step 1: The Wallet Creates and Signs the Transaction

Everything begins inside a crypto wallet.

When a user enters a recipient address and clicks “Send,” the wallet software prepares a transaction request containing:

• The amount of cryptocurrency
• The destination address
• Network fee information
• A cryptographic signature

The most important part is the digital signature.

What Is a Digital Signature?

A digital signature proves that the owner of the wallet approved the transaction.

Crypto wallets use:

• A public key (your wallet address)
• A private key (your secret authorization code)

The private key never leaves the wallet. Instead, it signs the transaction mathematically to prove ownership without revealing sensitive information.

This is why protecting your private key or seed phrase is critical. Whoever controls the private key controls the funds.

Step 2: The Transaction Is Broadcast to the Blockchain Network

After signing, the wallet broadcasts the transaction to the blockchain network.

The transaction enters a waiting area commonly called the mempool (memory pool).

At this stage:

• The transaction is pending
• Validators or miners can see it
• It has not yet been finalized

Thousands of pending transactions may compete for inclusion in the next block, especially during periods of high network activity.

Step 3: Validators or Miners Verify the Transaction

The blockchain network must confirm that the transaction is legitimate before adding it to the blockchain.

Depending on the blockchain, this verification is performed by:

• Miners (Proof-of-Work systems like Bitcoin)
• Validators (Proof-of-Stake systems like Ethereum)

What Do Validators Check?

Validators verify:

• The sender has enough funds
• The digital signature is valid
• The transaction follows network rules
• The same funds were not already spent elsewhere

This prevents fraud and solves the “double-spending” problem.

Without verification, someone could attempt to spend the same cryptocurrency multiple times.

Step 4: Gas Fees Determine Processing Priority

Most blockchain networks require users to pay a transaction fee.

On networks like Ethereum, this is called a gas fee.

Gas fees compensate validators for:

• Processing transactions
• Securing the network
• Using blockchain resources

Why Do Gas Fees Change?

Gas fees fluctuate depending on:

• Network congestion
• Transaction complexity
• Blockchain demand

When many users are active simultaneously, fees increase because users compete for faster processing.

Higher fees usually result in:

• Faster confirmation times
• Higher transaction priority

Lower fees may cause transactions to remain pending longer.

Step 5: The Transaction Is Added to a Block

After verification, the validator group approved transactions into a new block.

A block contains:

• Multiple transactions
• Timestamp information
• Cryptographic references to previous blocks

Once created, the block is added to the blockchain.

This is what makes blockchain systems transparent and difficult to alter.

Every new block strengthens the security of previous transactions.

Step 6: Block Confirmations Begin

After inclusion in a block, the transaction receives its first confirmation.

Each additional block added afterward increases confirmation count and security.

For example:

• 1 confirmation = transaction entered the blockchain
• 3 confirmations = stronger reliability
• 6+ confirmations = widely considered highly secure

Different networks and exchanges require different numbers of confirmations before considering funds fully settled.

Why Confirmations Matter

Confirmations reduce the risk of:

• Blockchain reorganizations
• Transaction reversals
• Double-spending attacks

Large transfers often require more confirmations for additional security.

Step 7: Final Settlement Occurs

Once enough confirmations are completed, the transaction reaches final settlement.

At this point:

• The recipient officially controls the funds
• The transaction becomes practically irreversible
• The blockchain permanently records the transfer

Unlike traditional banking systems, most crypto transactions cannot be reversed after settlement.

This immutability is one of blockchain’s core features.

Example of a Crypto Transaction in Real Life

Imagine Alice sends 1 ETH to Bob.

Here’s what happens:

1. Alice enters Bob’s wallet address
2. Alice’s wallet signs the transaction using her private key
3. The Ethereum network receives the transaction
4. Validators verify Alice has enough ETH
5. Alice pays a gas fee
6. The transaction enters a new Ethereum block
7. The blockchain confirms the transaction
8. Bob receives the ETH after the confirmations are complete

The entire process may take seconds or several minutes, depending on network activity and fees.

Why Crypto Transactions Are Secure

Blockchain transactions are secured through:

• Cryptography
• Decentralization
• Consensus mechanisms
• Distributed verification

No single party controls the network.

Instead, thousands of independent nodes maintain synchronized copies of the blockchain, making manipulation extremely difficult.

This decentralized structure is one reason blockchain technology is considered highly secure.

Common Reasons Transactions Get Delayed

Beginners sometimes panic when transactions remain pending.

Common causes include:

• Low gas fees
• Network congestion
• Blockchain outages
• Wallet synchronization issues
• Exchange processing delays

Most delayed transactions eventually confirm once network conditions improve.

Important Tips for Beginners

Before sending crypto:

• Double-check wallet addresses
• Use trusted wallets
• Keep private keys secure
• Understand network fees
• Send small test transactions first

Crypto transactions are usually irreversible, so accuracy matters.

Final Thoughts

A crypto transaction involves much more than simply clicking “Send.”

Behind every transfer, blockchain networks perform:

• Cryptographic signing
• Validator verification
• Block creation
• Consensus confirmation
• Final settlement

Understanding this process helps beginners navigate cryptocurrency more safely and confidently.

As blockchain adoption grows, knowing how crypto transactions work becomes an increasingly valuable digital skill — whether you are investing, trading, using DeFi, or exploring Web3 applications.

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TLDR:

• Arthur Hayes declares Bitcoin bottomed at $60,000 and calls a rally to $126,000 inevitable.
• Hayes pinpoints February 28, the US-Iran war date, as the official start of the bull market.
• The AI arms race between the US and China is forcing unlimited credit creation in both economies.
• Maelstrom is moving to maximum risk, with NEAR Protocol named as Hayes’ next major investment target. 

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has declared that Bitcoin has already bottomed at $60,000 and that a rally to $126,000 is inevitable.

In his latest essay, “The Butterfly Touch,” Hayes connects this forecast to the global AI infrastructure buildout, rising military expenditures, and a structural breakdown of dollar-dependent sovereign investment.

He argues that all three forces point to one outcome: more fiat currency, faster, and Bitcoin standing to benefit most.

Hayes Says the Bull Market Started on February 28

Hayes pinpoints the start of the current bull market to a specific date. According to Hayes, the bull market began in earnest when the United States attacked Iran on February 28.

He views that military action as the catalyst that broke the old assumption of Pax Americana protecting global trade routes.

Since that date, Hayes notes that Bitcoin has outperformed every other major risk asset. Gold, the Nasdaq 100, and the IGV US software index have all lagged behind Bitcoin’s post-war performance. He sees this as early confirmation that the market is beginning to price in a new era of fiat credit expansion.

Hayes argues that war is inherently inflationary. The US-Iran conflict, combined with the AI capital expenditure race and the global push toward just-in-case infrastructure, gives politicians and central bankers the political cover they need to allow unchecked credit creation. That credit, Hayes says, will flow into Bitcoin.

He is particularly focused on the $90,000 level as a technical trigger. Once Bitcoin clears that threshold, Hayes expects call option writers to rush to cover their positions.

That forced buying, he argues, will turn what is already a strong rally into something explosive and difficult for sidelined investors to chase.

The AI Arms Race Is Forcing Unlimited Credit Creation

Hayes frames the AI buildout not as a technology story but as a national security imperative. Both Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, he argues, have accepted the narrative that whichever nation dominates machine intelligence wins the next era of geopolitical power. That belief removes any political resistance to funding the buildout through money printing.

In the United States, the largest technology companies have funded AI capital expenditure through operating cash flows. However, Hayes notes that the scale of spending now requires the credit channel to open up.

Commercial banks are expected to step in, with political backing, to fund data centers, electricity infrastructure, and compute expansion.

China has taken a more direct approach. Xi has redirected bank lending away from real estate and channeled it into technology.

Hayes sees this as a deliberate policy decision to ensure China does not fall behind in the AI race, regardless of what it costs the banking system in terms of risk exposure.

Hayes introduces two concepts to explain why AI spending will not slow down on its own. Jevons’ Paradox holds that as the cost of intelligence falls, demand for compute rises exponentially.

The Red Queen Effect means that every dollar a company spends on AI is quickly made obsolete by a rival’s newer model, forcing another round of even larger spending. Together, these dynamics create a self-reinforcing loop of credit expansion with no natural ceiling.

Maelstrom Is Going to Maximum Risk as Hayes Eyes NEAR Next

Hayes does not stop at macro analysis. He makes clear that his family office, Maelstrom, is acting on this conviction by moving to maximum portfolio risk.

He states that nothing has changed drastically enough to justify holding back, and he intends to ride the bull market with full exposure until conditions shift materially.

Maelstrom currently holds large positions in Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Zcash (ZEC). Hayes describes both positions as already large enough that adding more is not the priority. Instead, he has turned his attention to NEAR Protocol as the next major deployment target for the fund.

Hayes says his next essay will lay out the full thesis on NEAR. He connects the protocol to a privacy narrative and a feature called Near intents, which he believes will generate positive cash flow for the protocol.

That cash flow dynamic, he argues, will reverse NEAR’s poor price history and push the token back toward its all-time high.

On the broader market, Hayes keeps his message simple. He calls this a bull market and tells investors to act accordingly.

He acknowledges that US political tensions around AI and inflation ahead of the November midterm elections may cause a brief slowdown, but he does not see that as a reason to reduce exposure now.

The Ethereum Foundation has withdrawn more than 21,000 ETH from Lido staking weeks after carrying out earlier unstaking activity and multiple OTC treasury sales tied to operational funding.

According to blockchain analytics platform Arkham, an Ethereum Foundation-tagged wallet initiated the withdrawal of 21,270 ETH on Monday, an amount worth nearly $50 million at current prices. The transaction moved the funds out of Lido’s liquid staking system and into Ethereum’s withdrawal queue, where staked ETH remains locked until the unstaking process is completed.

Under Ethereum’s proof-of-stake system, validators stake ETH on the Beacon Chain to help secure the network and receive yield in return. Once an unstaking request is submitted through Lido, holders receive a withdrawal claim before the ETH becomes redeemable after the queue clears.

Earlier in late April, the foundation unstaked 17,035 ETH shortly after approaching its internal target of roughly 70,000 staked ETH. Arkham data at the time showed the organization depositing wrapped staked ETH into Lido’s unstETH contract, though the foundation did not publicly explain the reason behind the move.

Questions around treasury activity intensified after the nonprofit later sold 10,000 ETH to BitMine in an over-the-counter transaction completed on May 1. The deal, priced at an average of $2,292 per ETH, followed two previous OTC sales to BitMine in March and April, bringing total recent sales to 25,000 ETH.

In a statement accompanying the May transaction, the Ethereum Foundation said the sale would fund “core operations and activities,” including protocol research, ecosystem development, and community grants.

Treasury adjustments continue as staking policy evolves

Following criticism over past ETH sales, the foundation revised its treasury policy in June 2025 and said increased staking participation would help support long-term development funding while reducing dependence on direct market sales.

Since February, the organization has steadily expanded its staking position. Foundation wallets first staked 2,016 ETH, followed by another 22,517 ETH in March. During early April, more than 45,000 ETH was added, lifting the total staked balance to around 69,500 ETH before the first major withdrawal took place.

Arkham suggested the latest unstaking activity could be tied to funding requirements for ongoing network work. The analytics provider also pointed to rising concerns around third-party protocol risk following the $293 million Kelp DAO exploit involving rsETH-linked assets.

At the same time, parts of Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem have continued recovery efforts connected to the exploit. Earlier reports showed Aave coordinating support alongside Lido DAO, EtherFi Foundation, Mantle, and other groups after more than 116,000 restaked ETH tokens were affected.

Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, has previously warned about governance risks tied to large-scale foundation staking during disputed hard forks, particularly if the organization becomes too deeply involved in validator participation.

Foundation funding remains focused on infrastructure and ZK research

Alongside the treasury activity, the Ethereum Foundation has continued directing grants toward protocol infrastructure, zero-knowledge research, validator security, and developer tooling.

Its Q1 2026 allocation report included support for execution clients such as Geth and Erigon, upgrades tied to the Lighthouse consensus client, validator security systems including Vero, and node discovery work through DISC-NG.

Additional grants covered Poseidon hash analysis, research into algebraic attack vectors affecting ZK systems, quantum-resistant cryptography, and formal verification tied to RISC-V-based zkVM infrastructure.

Developer-focused funding also went toward WalletConnect clear-signing libraries, L2BEAT analytics tools, ERC ecosystem initiatives, DAO governance research, decentralized identity standards, and privacy tools, including Privacy Pool integrations and Tor-related work.

Separately, the foundation recently confirmed progress tied to Ethereum’s upcoming “Glamsterdam” update after establishing a 200 million gas limit floor. According to earlier reporting from crypto.news, the change could increase throughput significantly from Ethereum’s current 60 million gas limit environment.

TLDR:

Tron has surged 26% over the past three months despite persistent negative sentiment from retail traders. The asset recently reclaimed the $0.35 level, a mark it had not touched since last September.

Crowd FUD Continues to Fuel the TRX Price Rally

Despite the sharp recovery, public opinion on Tron remains largely critical. Much of that skepticism traces back to founder Justin Sun.

Over the years, Sun has faced accusations of market manipulation and aggressive promotion tactics. He has also dealt with multiple lawsuits and ongoing regulatory scrutiny from various authorities. Many retail traders still associate Tron with the hype-driven behavior that shaped past market cycles.

Santiment Intelligence recently flagged this trend in a post on X. The analytics firm noted that crowd discussions around TRX have remained “very mixed” even as prices climb.

That divided sentiment has continued throughout much of 2026. Fear and hesitation still dominate retail conversations about the asset.

A large portion of the crypto crowd still views TRX as too risky or too controversial. Many traders prefer newer narratives around AI or DeFi over Tron’s established model.

That widespread distrust, however, creates a market condition where key stakeholders can drive prices higher. They face little resistance from retail crowds that remain on the sidelines.

Markets tend to reverse most sharply when crowds turn overly bullish and euphoric. Tron has experienced the opposite dynamic for most of 2026.

Persistent skepticism and hesitation have allowed TRX to trend upward without triggering FOMO-driven buying. That absence of retail excitement often shields the asset from the corrections that follow euphoric rallies.

Stablecoin Criticism and Ecosystem Doubts Add Further Pressure on Tron

Two key developments in 2026 have added further negativity around Tron. The network faces heavy criticism over its dominant role in global USDT transfers.

Tron processes a large share of stablecoin activity because of its low fees. Its fast settlement speeds have made it one of the busiest chains for dollar-pegged transactions.

Critics argue this setup has made Tron an attractive channel for illicit transfers and suspicious wallet activity. Tether freezes tied to Tron addresses have continued to make headlines throughout the year. Each new freeze reinforces existing fears among traders who already viewed the chain with suspicion.

Beyond stablecoin concerns, many traders have also grown frustrated with Tron’s ecosystem development. Growth on the network has come mainly from stablecoin movement and yield products.

There have been few flashy consumer-facing applications to attract broader attention. In a market chasing AI agents, meme coins, and Layer-2 launches, Tron’s approach has left many retail investors unimpressed.

That frustration has led many to dismiss the TRX rally as unsustainable or unexciting. Yet the constant doubt may be the very factor keeping prices elevated.

When the crowd stays skeptical, sell-side pressure stays low. That gives TRX room to move higher without triggering widespread profit-taking.

Fundamental Background

The key event for XRP in May remains the fate of the CLARITY Act, which is expected to establish XRP’s status as a digital commodity at the federal level. According to CoinMarketCap, the Senate Banking Committee has scheduled consideration of the bill for 14 May 2026. According to estimates by 24/7 Wall St., if the vote does not take place before the start of the May recess on 21 May, consideration of the bill could be delayed. Against this backdrop, institutional interest remains steady: according to SoSoValue, net inflows into spot XRP ETFs totalled $34.21 million during the first ten days of May.

Technical Picture

Since July 2025, XRP has formed a descending channel from the peak near $3.6. The move culminated in accelerated selling pressure in early February 2026, with the price falling towards the $1.12 area, after which the asset entered a sideways consolidation phase. The horizontal volume profile formed during this period covers the range between the lower boundary at $1.30 and the upper boundary at $1.50. The point of control (POC) is located between $1.39 and $1.44.

The price is currently trading above the POC zone but below the upper boundary of the profile and is preparing to test the channel boundary. The POC area acts as the nearest support zone during pullbacks. The key support and resistance levels within the horizontal volume range are $1.29 and $1.60 respectively. The RSI + MAs indicator shows readings of 62, 51 and 51 — the main indicator line remains in positive territory and noticeably above the moving averages, indicating continued buyer interest, although the averages themselves remain neutral.

Key Takeaways

In the short term, the direction of XRP/USD will largely depend on regulatory developments in the coming weeks: consideration of the CLARITY Act in the coming days could become the catalyst for a breakout from the current range in either direction. The volume profile and the $1.29 level form the lower support zone, while $1.60 remains the nearest resistance above the current market profile range.

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