Crypto World
Kraken Integrates OTC Desk with ICE Chat for Institutions
US-based crypto exchange Kraken has integrated its over-the-counter desk with Intercontinental Exchange’s ICE Chat, enabling institutional traders to access Kraken’s crypto liquidity directly through a messaging platform widely used across global financial markets.
ICE Chat connects more than 120,000 market participants, including banks, brokers and trading desks that use the system for real-time deal negotiation and execution. The integration allows those clients to communicate directly with Kraken’s OTC desk within their existing trading workflows.
Kraken said it is the first cryptocurrency platform approved to connect to ICE Chat, placing its crypto liquidity alongside traditional asset classes within established institutional communications infrastructure.
The companies added that they expect to expand the integration over time, reflecting broader efforts to embed digital asset trading into traditional financial market systems.
Kraken’s OTC desk facilitates large block trades in crypto spot and options markets. Intercontinental Exchange, which operates ICE Chat and owns the New York Stock Exchange, provides data, clearing and technology services to global financial markets.
The news follows Kraken’s pledge on Monday to support US President Donald Trump’s proposed “Trump Accounts,” a savings program for Americans under 18.
Related: Kraken parent Payward revenues jump 33% as crypto traders pile in
ICE expands deeper into crypto and tokenized markets
Intercontinental Exchange has stepped up its involvement in digital asset markets over the past year, expanding beyond traditional exchange infrastructure into blockchain data, prediction markets and crypto payments.
In August, ICE partnered with blockchain oracle provider Chainlink to bring foreign exchange and precious metals data onchain. The collaboration integrates ICE’s Consolidated Feed, which aggregates pricing data from more than 300 global exchanges and marketplaces, into Chainlink’s Data Streams.
In October, ICE invested $2 billion in crypto-based prediction market Polymarket, valuing the company at a reported $9 billion post-money. In December, ICE entered discussions to back crypto payments company MoonPay in its latest funding round, which is reportedly seeking a $5 billion valuation, though the size of ICE’s potential investment was not disclosed.
Both Nasdaq and the NYSE have also been making moves in crypto recently, particularly the tokenization of equities.
In September, Nasdaq filed a request with the US Securities and Exchange Commission seeking approval to list tokenized stocks through a proposed rule change.
In January, the NYSE announced plans to develop a 24/7 trading platform for tokenized stocks and ETFs, combining the exchange’s Pillar matching engine with blockchain-based post-trade settlement systems, subject to regulatory approval.
Magazine: Is China hoarding gold so yuan becomes global reserve instead of USD?
The US stock market opened lower on February 17, 2026. It is the first session after Presidents’ Day, with the S&P 500 trading around 6,840 at press time. The Index is down approximately 0.65% (around 44 points) from Friday’s high, but up almost 0.58% since today’s open. This hints at buyers stepping in across sectors.
Persistent “SaaSpocalypse” fears that AI will disrupt traditional software and tech models continue to pressure the market. This makes Information Technology the weakest sector, down 1.5% intraday. Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS) leads the top laggards, falling 1.6% amid broader AI anxiety.
Top US Stock Market News:
• Empire State Manufacturing Index: The New York Fed’s survey showed modest regional expansion in February at +7.1. It is slightly below January’s +7.7 but above forecasts. This leading gauge for US factory activity offers some reassurance against slowdown fears.
• Canadian CPI Cools: January headline inflation eased to 2.3% YoY (from 2.4%), driven by lower gasoline prices. The softer print strengthens the disinflation narrative and could preview similar trends in US data, supporting Fed rate-cut hopes.
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• US-Iran Indirect Talks Resume: Discussions in Geneva today focused on nuclear issues and de-escalation. Progress could help stabilize oil markets and reduce volatility in the energy and global trade sectors.
S&P 500 Tests Key Level As AI Disruption Fears Weigh on Wall Street
Wall Street remains cautious on February 17, 2026, with the US stock market trading mixed but overall subdued amid persistent SaaSpocalypse fears. The S&P 500 opened weaker, briefly dipping below its 100-day EMA before reclaiming it.
The index stabilized around 6,834–6,841 mid-session, down 0.65% intraday from its February 13 high.
The trend suggests the market might recover mildly, but the key to a broader recovery lies above the highs set on February 13 (Friday).
This echoes the late-November 2025 scenario. The index lost the 100-day EMA on November 28 but reclaimed it quickly the next session, triggering a strong rally. The S&P 500 gained approximately 7.38% from late November into late January.
The 100-day EMA has acted as strong support since then. Key support now sits around this zone, at around 6,819. A close below could invite broader weakness toward 6,762 and 6,705. A decisive push above 6,889 (above Friday’s high) could target the psychological 7,000 level.
However, stagflation-like concerns (sticky inflation, growth slowdown) and AI disruption anxiety limit upside conviction.
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Nasdaq Composite trades deeper in the red, highlighting tech’s drag. Tech’s 33% S&P 500 weight amplifies the impact on the broader index.
VIX, the Volatility Index, eased 1.08% to 20.97 (from higher early-session levels), signaling reduced volatility as the day progressed, though still elevated relative to recent lows and reflecting caution.
The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.05% (down modestly today, near 2.5-month lows).
It reflects flight-to-safety flows and softer inflation expectations; supportive for bonds but pressuring growth stocks and crypto amid delayed rate-cut bets.
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Sector Rotation in Focus: Defensives Shine While Tech Drags
The US stock market’s mixed tone on February 17, 2026, reveals pronounced sector rotation. Technology (XLK) is the standout laggard, down approximately 1.24% from February 13 highs (currently trading -0.37% on the day).
XLK is the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, managed by State Street Global Advisors, one of the flagship sector ETFs that slices the S&P 500 into its 11 GICS sectors for targeted exposure.
It tracks major tech names (Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple) and software/semiconductor companies. This makes XLK sensitive to growth sentiment and AI-related developments.
The XLK chart shows a developing head-and-shoulders pattern, a bearish structure. The neckline holds steady near 133; a decisive break below could confirm the pattern and trigger a 10% downside move (measured from head to neckline), potentially pushing toward 129 or even 120 in a deeper correction if broader market conditions or AI concerns worsen.
Utilities (XLU) continues to show relative strength after rallying 2.5% on Friday. While it’s down 0.40% today in line with broader weakness, the sector remains the strongest performer on a weekly basis.
This flow, from growth/tech into defensives and value, explains why the S&P 500 can trade flat-to-lower despite green pockets: tech’s 33% index weight magnifies XLK weakness, overshadowing gains elsewhere.
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The bearish setup invalidates on a reclaim of 141–144; a move above 150 would fully negate the threat.
Synopsys (SNPS) Drops 4.4% As AI Anxiety Hammers Software Stocks
Synopsys (SNPS) is one of the standout US stock market laggards. It is trading at approximately 419 after dropping 4.43% intraday, at press time.
As a leading EDA software and semiconductor IP provider, SNPS is closely tied to the software infrastructure subsector. This leaves it vulnerable to ongoing concerns that AI may reshape chip-design workflows.
In the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), SNPS carries a modest weight of 0.72%. This limits its direct ETF impact but serves as a strong proxy for software weakness (e.g., ORCL -3.85%, CRWD -5.12%, FTNT -4.11%).
The daily chart shows SNPS trading inside a bear flag pattern following a 24% correction that began January 12, 2026, with the February 4 rebound/consolidation keeping price contained within the flag. It attempted a breakdown today, but buyers defended so far.
A confirmed break below 416 could activate the pattern, projecting downside toward 322 (over 20% from current levels). Intermediate support levels sit at 402 and 371.
The bearish setup invalidates on a reclaim of 451. This reinforces rotation away from software/growth names into defensives, adding to Nasdaq’s relative pressure.
Bitcoin slid more than 2% to $67,000 on Tuesday, reflecting broader risk aversion across markets as Wall Street reopened after the Presidents’ Day holiday.
Summary
- Tech and crypto remain under pressure, while defensives are mixed, with selective strength emerging in activist-driven and travel names.
- Bitcoin has fallen about 29% over the past month, sparking debate over whether the downturn is nearing a bottom or has further to run.
- “I believe that bitcoin has already capitulated with that big move from 100k-> 60k,” one analyst says.
Crypto weakness coincided with renewed pressure on technology and software shares, where investors continued to grapple with the potential for AI-driven disruption. The Nasdaq-100 underperformed, slipping 0.3%, while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF dropped more than 2.7% in midday New York trading. The software-focused fund has now declined in 11 of the past 15 sessions, pushing its year-to-date losses to nearly 25%.
Broader equity indices were largely flat, masking sharp divergences beneath the surface. Financial stocks rebounded after weeks of weakness, while consumer staples lagged.
Travel Tickers
Travel-linked shares stood out as a pocket of strength. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings surged 11% after Elliott Investment Management disclosed a stake exceeding 10% and signaled plans to push for strategic changes following the cruise operator’s prolonged underperformance.
Peers rallied in sympathy, with Carnival Corp. rising about 4% and Royal Caribbean Group gaining 3%.
In travel and leisure, Airbnb Inc. added 3.7%, extending momentum from last week’s earnings report. Southwest Airlines Co. jumped more than 6% following a wave of analyst upgrades from Susquehanna and UBS.
But what about Bitcoin?
The top cryptocurrency has fallen about 29% over the past month, sparking debate over whether the downturn is nearing a bottom or has further to run.
Trader Altcoin Sherpa pointed to past cycles for comparison, noting that both the 2017–2018 and 2021–2022 bear markets saw steep 75–85% drawdowns and took roughly a year from all-time high to final bottom. Each cycle ended with a sharp capitulation event — including the 2018 plunge from $6,000 to $3,000 and the 2022 crash tied to FTX — followed by several months of accumulation.
However, Sherpa argues the current cycle may differ. The 2024–2025 rally was slower and more consolidation-heavy than prior vertical surges, and structural factors such as spot ETFs, reduced speculative excess, stronger support in the $50,000–$70,000 range, and already-flushed altcoin froth could shorten the bear market timeline, potentially avoiding a full 365-day decline.
“I believe that bitcoin has already capitulated with that big move from 100k-> 60k,” Sherpa says. “I believe we are now in the ACCUMULATION phase of the cycle. Accumulation can last anywhere from a few weeks to several months.”
See the full post via the link below.
Key Insights:
- Binance whale inflow ratio surged, showing growing dominance of large BTC transactions.
- Bitcoin’s 22% YTD decline has pushed sentiment into extreme fear territory.
- Falling stablecoin liquidity makes whale moves more influential on price action.
Market Weakness Deepens Across Crypto
The larger crypto market is still under intense pressure with Binance registering a massive increase in whale activity. Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, dropping over 22% in the year, the lowest first-quarter performance since 2018.
The month of January ended with a sharp loss of 10% and February has been unable to provide relief yet. This decline is reflected in investor sentiment, where the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is solidly in the extreme fear zone. The range of $60,000 to $65,000 has been cited by analysts as one of the key support zones that might dictate the direction in the near future.
Whale Inflows on Binance Spike Suddenly
Despite bearish price action, on-chain data points to a notable shift in large-holder behavior. According to CryptoQuant, Binance’s whale inflow ratio jumped from 0.40 to 0.62 between February 2 and February 15, indicating that a large portion of exchange inflows is currently taken over by large holders.
A single large holder, known as the Hyperunit whale, allegedly transferred close to 10,000 BTC to Binance as the volatility increased. A number of other high-value transfers occurred in their turn, indicating that institutional-scale players are actively repositioning as prices get weaker.
🐳 Whale Inflow ratio surges on Binance amid market correction.
This correction is testing all types of investors, from retail participants to whales and even institutions.
According to the whale inflow ratio, we are seeing a clear surge in whale activity on Binance,… pic.twitter.com/TVJiUAWy1O
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) February 17, 2026
In the past, increasing numbers of whales may cause sell-side pressure. They can, however, reflect tactical actions in times when deep liquidity on the major exchanges becomes crucial.
Liquidity Tightens as Capital Pulls Back
Binance has seen declining stablecoin liquidity. The exchange has registered three consecutive months of negative netflows of stablecoins, with almost $3 billion leaving the platform this month. Since November, the total stablecoin reserves have been decreasing by nearly $9 billion.
This tightening of liquidity increases the effect of the whale movement since big transfers can more readily influence the short-term price action.
Selling Pressure or Strategic Accumulation?
The statistics provide a varied picture. The low liquidity and risk-off flows suggest caution, but the rise in whale activity implies that the large players are finding opportunities at these levels. It remains unclear whether this signals distribution, hedging, or silent accumulation.
TLDR:
- AAVE is trading around $124, sitting above a major support zone between $90 and $110 on the weekly chart.
- A multi-year ascending trendline active since 2021 converges with the 0.618 Fibonacci level at current prices.
- Price is compressing between descending resistance and rising support, signaling a potential breakout is approaching.
- Upside targets range from $190 to $1,000, representing a 10x return from the base of the accumulation zone.
AAVE is currently sitting at a critical support zone following an 86% decline from its all-time high. The DeFi token is trading around $124, holding above a major weekly trendline that has remained intact since 2021.
Analysts are now watching whether this level can sustain buying pressure and trigger a larger recovery. Crypto analyst CryptoPatel has outlined a detailed technical case suggesting a potential 10x move from the current accumulation range.
Price Holds Above Key Support as Accumulation Signs Emerge
AAVE is trading above a high-timeframe support zone between $90 and $110. This range has attracted considerable attention from technical analysts tracking the asset’s long-term structure.
The zone aligns with a multi-year ascending trendline, adding weight to its relevance as a demand area.
CryptoPatel flagged the setup on social media, stating that price is showing a “liquidity sweep and reaction from a multi-year ascending trendline that has held since 2021.”
That trendline converges with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, forming a strong area of technical confluence. Together, these factors point to a historically significant support region for the asset.
Beyond the trendline, price action is compressing between a descending resistance level and rising support. This type of compression pattern often builds tension before a directional move. Traders are watching closely to see which side resolves first.
10x Targets in Focus as Breakout Conditions Take Shape
The $74 level stands as the line in the sand for bulls. A weekly close below that price would cancel the bullish scenario outlined in the analysis. As long as AAVE holds above that threshold, the setup remains technically intact.
CryptoPatel mapped out a series of upside targets starting at $190, followed by $345, then $579, and eventually $1,000 or more.
These levels represent roughly a 10x return calculated from the base of the accumulation zone near $90. Each target corresponds to a technical resistance level identified on higher timeframes.
The analyst described the current range as trading between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci support levels, calling it a “generational accumulation range before massive expansion.”
This Fibonacci band is commonly associated with deep retracements that precede strong recoveries in trending assets.
Whether AAVE confirms this pattern depends on price holding current support and broader market momentum supporting a DeFi recovery.
Is PIPPIN headed for a collapse below $0.10?
The meme coin pippin (PIPPIN) is deep in red territory today (February 17) after posting substantial gains over the past few weeks.
The question now is whether this will be a temporary correction or the beginning of a major collapse.
What Comes Next?
The asset’s price has retraced by nearly 20% on a daily scale and now trades at around $0.59 (per CoinGecko’s data). PIPPIN’s market capitalization has tumbled below $600 million, putting it at risk of losing its prestigious spot among the 100 largest cryptocurrencies.
Several analysts have recently warned that the meme coin could be a high-stakes gamble, advising traders to stay away from it. Earlier this week, X user Ted said he doesn’t know a single person who holds PIPPIN and wondered what might have driven the rally.
He thinks the whole thing is “a CEX cabal play,” similar to Mantra (OM). In crypto slang, “cabal” refers to a small, coordinated group of insiders who are believed to manipulate a token’s price with their actions. Recall that just a year ago, OM was worth almost $9, whereas its market cap briefly exceeded $8 billion. Since then, the asset has crashed by staggering 99%.
Crypto Rug Muncher shared a similar thesis. The X user argued that the only people still active in the PIPPIN ecosystem are “the cabal members who crimed it to $700 million MC in the first place.”
“This isn’t a project holding the active interest of the space; it’s organized manipulation designed to bait in naive retail for exit liquidity. The project is a hollow, abandoned shell with no fundamentals, and as soon as the insiders manipulating this get bored, it’s headed straight back to shitcoin hell where it belongs,” they added.
Crypto GVR and ALTSTEIN TRADE also gave their two cents. The former spotted the price reversal that occurred in the past hours to forecast that a major collapse to $0.10 may be coming next. The latter argued that PIPPIN’s “top is in,” predicting that all the gains will be lost and that the valuation will tumble below $0.10.
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Something for the Bulls
Despite the grim forecasts from the aforementioned analysts, the meme coin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a short-term rebound could be on the horizon.
The technical analysis tool tracks the speed and magnitude of recent price changes and helps traders spot potential turning points. It runs on a scale from 0 to 100, and ratios below 30 indicate that PIPPIN is oversold and might be on the verge of a resurgence. On the contrary, readings above 70 are considered precursors of a correction. Currently, the RSI stands just north of the bullish zone.
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The amount of ETH that’s being used to secure the network recently crossed 30% of Ethereum’s circulating supply for the first time.
More than 30% of ETH’s circulating supply is now locked in staking contracts, per data from Validator Queue. The percent of supply staked continues to break new highs this month, climbing over 30% for the first time at the end of January.
As of today, Feb. 17, data shows that about 36.9 million ETH, or roughly 30.4% of total supply, is currently staked across nearly 967,000 active validators.
Meanwhile, the price of ETH rallied to new highs this summer, reaching nearly $5,000 in late August, but has since given back much of those gains, and is currently struggling to stay around $2,000.
The jump in staking, however, has also created a clear backlog for new validators. About 3.92 million ETH is currently sitting in the validator entry queue, waiting to be staked, and the wait time for staking has reached nearly 68 days.
Getting out of staking, however, is finally far easier. The exit queue is empty, although withdrawals still face an additional eight-day sweep delay before funds reach withdrawal addresses. This fall, the validator exit queue also faced congestion, and in September it took more than 45 days to exit Ethereum staking.
The network APR, or annual staking rewards, currently sits at around 2.84%. As for players, Lido remains the largest staking entity, controlling roughly 24% of all staked ETH, or about 8.7 million tokens, according to data from Dune Analytics. Centralized exchanges and centralized staking providers also account for a sizable share.
The data shows staking inflows rising through 2024 and early 2025, before turning negative later in 2025 as some participants began pulling ETH back out.
Last summer, alongside ETH’s price, the total value locked across liquid staking protocols — which let ETH holders stake their tokens while keeping funds liquid — rose to record highs above $85 billion, which extended through early October.
But after the Oct. 10 crash, liquid staking TVL began to drop and is currently sitting just below $40 billion.
Crypto venture firm Dragonfly Capital completed a $650 million fourth fund, marking one of the largest raises in the sector at a time when many blockchain-focused VCs are struggling, Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi said.
“It’s a weird time to celebrate,” Qureshi wrote on a social media post on Tuesday, describing low spirits and “the gloom of a bear market” for crypto. However, he noted that Dragonfly has historically raised capital during downturns, including the 2018 ICO crash and just before the 2022 Terra collapse, ‘vintages,’ he said, ultimately became the firm’s best performers.
In September, the firm said it was aiming to raise $500 million for its fourth fund, which would target early-stage projects. It has not yet identified any of them. In May 2023, Dragonfly Capital raised $650 million for its third crypto fund for later-stage companies.
‘Biggest bet yet’
The new vehicle comes as token prices slumped this year and fundraising across crypto ventures has slowed sharply. Bitcoin has lost roughly 46% of its value since its all-time high of more than $126,000 in October of last year, and the crypto downtrend has wiped out more than $1.4 trillion in market cap.
While market sentiment remains bearish, Qureshi is bullish on crypto’s financial use cases, saying the sector “is exploding,” while other non-financial use cases are failing. In fact, Dragonfly has increasingly leaned into crypto-financial infrastructure, from stablecoins to tokenization and on-chain payments, reflecting a broader shift away from speculative Web3 applications and toward blockchain-based financial services.
“Stablecoins are eating the world. DeFi has grown so big it’s rivaling CeFi. Financial institutions around the world are racing to build out their crypto strategies. And prediction markets are becoming the most trusted source of truth on the internet,” he wrote.
Qureshi also noted the growth in Dragonfly’s recent investments, including Polymarket, Ethena, Rain, and Mesh, as examples of his thesis that crypto’s financial use cases are having a moment.
His comments come after VC firms at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 struck a cautious tone about the state of the crypto market amid prevailing bearish sentiment. The crypto VCs that included Qureshi, Maximum Frequency Ventures’ Mo Shaikh and Pantera Capital’s Paul Veradittakit all echoed the same sentiment: invest in what’s working, like stablecoins and tokenizations, while selectively betting on sectors such as AI and prediction markets.
Qureshi seems to be doubling down on the idea that the crypto industry isn’t dead, despite the gloom, but just realigning and noted that the new fund is his firm’s “biggest bet yet that the crypto revolution is still early in its exponential.”
Fortune was first to report Dragonfly’s recent raise.
Bubblemaps found that Hayden Davis, who was involved with LIBRA and YZY tokens, has resumed on-chain trading, but recent Solana meme coin bets resulted in nearly $3 million losses.
A year after Bubblemaps first detailed the on-chain mechanics behind the LIBRA meme coin collapse, the blockchain analytics firm has released a new update tracking the renewed trading activity of the project creator Hayden Davis.
This time, it has highlighted significant trading losses rather than insider gains.
From Insider Wins to Meme Coin Losses
According to Bubblemaps’ latest findings, Davis has resumed on-chain activity after a period of wallet inactivity, but is now down roughly $3 million after trading multiple Solana-based meme coins, such as PUMP, TROVE, and PENGUIN.
The update stated that Davis had largely disappeared from on-chain trading following Bubblemaps’ August 2025 investigation, which showed he had made millions by sniping the hip-hop star Kanye West’s YZY token shortly after launch. After those profits, the wallets linked to him went dormant.
However, Bubblemaps reports that new wallets within the same cluster have become active again this year. In fact, over the past 30 days, the firm identified several large transfers into a deposit address linked to Davis, labeled CPGZ1i, which ultimately led to six active wallets under the same cluster.
Transaction analysis further indicated that Davis was trading as recently as five days ago and focused primarily on trending Solana meme coins. Unlike previous episodes, the majority of these trades were unprofitable. Bubblemaps estimated losses of approximately $2.5 million on PUMP, $100,000 on PENGUIN, $29,000 on KABUTO, and smaller losses on tokens such as LOUD and BAGWORK.
LIBRA Fallout Didn’t End It
The findings show Davis did not exit the market following the LIBRA collapse, which had previously been linked to over $100 million in insider profits, according to Bubblemaps’ report published exactly a year earlier. That earlier investigation mapped a network of wallets connected to LIBRA and MELANIA token launches, and demonstrated coordinated sniping activity, cross-chain fund transfers, and quick cash-outs tied to addresses associated with Davis and related entities.
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On Monday’s update, Bubblemaps observed that instead of disappearing, Davis’ financial position evolved in other ways. For instance, a judge unfroze $57 million of his assets, he continued to generate profits through opportunistic trades such as YZY, and he received a sizable MET airdrop. The latest data now shows Davis engaging in routine on-chain trading activity again.
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MicroStrategy, now known as Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), expanded its Bitcoin holdings last week amid continued market challenges. The company purchased 2,486 Bitcoin, bringing its holdings to over 717,000 coins. This purchase, valued at nearly $50 billion, reflects Strategy’s unwavering commitment to Bitcoin, despite bearish market conditions.
Last week, Strategy bought 2,486 Bitcoin, spending $168 million. With this latest acquisition, its Bitcoin stash now exceeds 717,000 coins. This purchase came as the company continued using its stock sales to fund the Bitcoin buys, causing shareholder dilution.
Strategy has acquired 2,486 BTC for ~$168.4 million at ~$67,710 per bitcoin. As of 2/16/2026, we hodl 717,131 $BTC acquired for ~$54.52 billion at ~$76,027 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/wvxRYZlQ3Y
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 17, 2026
The company has sold over $7.8 billion in shares and is set to sell more. In addition to the stock sales, Strategy holds over $20 billion in preferred STRK. The number of outstanding shares now surpasses 312 million, a significant rise from previous years. As the company’s Bitcoin strategy endures, Michael Saylor, the firm’s former CEO, pledged to keep purchasing Bitcoin indefinitely. He also mentioned plans to swap company debt for additional shares in the future.
Technical Indicators Point to Bitcoin’s Potential Decline
Bitcoin’s price continues to struggle, showing a bearish pattern in the charts. Analysts are concerned that Bitcoin may drop further before any potential rebound. The technical setup suggests a bearish pennant pattern, signaling a price drop.
Bitcoin’s price is moving toward a potential crash, with projections hinting at a fall to $60,000. The bearish pattern emerges from a confluence of a vertical line and a symmetrical triangle. If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $80,000 resistance, the negative outlook will remain intact.
In the past, Bitcoin’s behavior has shown vulnerability to market sentiment shifts. Standard Chartered recently adjusted its Bitcoin price forecast, lowering it from $150,000 to $100,000. The bearish sentiment comes as Bitcoin struggles to break above critical resistance levels, keeping the coin under pressure.
Geopolitical Risks Amplify Bitcoin’s Struggles
Bitcoin faces additional pressure from geopolitical concerns, which weigh heavily on its performance. Tensions in the Middle East, including rising conflict risks between the U.S. and Iran, could impact Bitcoin’s price. Despite negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, ongoing military movements create uncertainties for the market.
The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty has contributed to Bitcoin’s volatility, as the coin fails to establish itself as a safe-haven asset. Bitcoin’s price has been closely linked to broader market sentiment, especially during times of conflict. This ongoing instability is likely to exacerbate the challenges faced by Bitcoin in the short term.
As the Middle East crisis develops, it is unclear how Bitcoin will respond. While some might view it as a hedge against traditional markets, Bitcoin has proven to be vulnerable to large-scale geopolitical events. With global events continuing to influence cryptocurrency prices, Bitcoin’s future remains uncertain.
Bitcoin (BTC) analysts mapped out the key BTC price levels to watch as the market’s focus shifted to the $58,000 to $65,000 zone as the last line of defense.
Bitcoin price is wedged between two key levels
Bitcoin is currently wedged between the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $68,300 and the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $58,400.
Generally, in Bitcoin’s trading history, major BTC bottoms have formed between the 200-week SMA and EMA, according to analyst Jelle. This suggests that Bitcoin is possibly forming a bottom between these trendlines.
Related: Bitcoin accumulation wave puts $80K back in play: Analyst
While Bitcoin has produced a weekly close above the 200-week EMA for the second week in a row, “this doesn’t mean it is now in the clear,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital said in a Monday X post, adding:
“The absence of any meaningful upside from here going forward, there is a risk that BTC loses the 200-week EMA in time, triggering additional downside.”
Crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows had an expanded view, focusing on $71,000 for a bullish breakout.
In a Tuesday post on X, Ted Pillows said that Bitcoin needs a daily close above the $71,000 level to increase the chances of an upside rally, adding:
“And if a breakdown happens below $66,000, BTC might revisit $60,000.”
Cointelegraph reported that the CME gap between $80,000 and $84,000 could act as a magnet, representing the upper price target for Bitcoin. With nine out of 10 CME gaps filled since August 2025, the $80,000–$84,000 range stands out as the key level to watch on the upside.
Bitcoin bulls must hold the price above $65,000
After turning away from $72,000 last week, Bitcoin found support at $65,000. Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap reveals a significant support area recently established between $63,000 to $65,000, where long-term holders recently acquired approximately 372,240 BTC.
A decisive break below this level “would likely open the path toward the realized Price” around $55,000, Glassnode said in a Monday post on X.
Current analysis suggests that the bears may aim to hold BTC price below $65,000 to remain in control. If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair may then retest the critical $60,000 level. If the $60,000 support cracks, the next stop is likely to be $52,500.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
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