TLDR:

• TradFi assets now make up 9% of Binance futures volume, signaling a shift in trading behavior
• Rising stock market volatility is pushing traders to explore crypto-linked derivative markets
• S&P 500 drawdowns show that corrections are frequent, even during extended bull market phases
• Faster recoveries after 2010 reflect changing market dynamics and stronger policy responses

Global trading patterns are shifting as traditional financial assets gain ground within crypto derivatives markets. Recent data shows a steady rise in cross-market activity, while long-term equity drawdowns continue to shape how traders assess risk and timing across asset classes.

TradFi Assets Gain Ground in Crypto Futures

CryptoQuant reported that traditional financial assets now account for about 9% of Binance futures volume. The update came through a post shared by CryptoQuant, citing analyst JA Maartun. The data points to a gradual shift in trader focus beyond digital assets.

The tweet noted that rising volatility in stock markets is drawing more attention from crypto traders. As a result, exposure to equities through derivatives platforms is increasing. This trend reflects how trading strategies are expanding across asset classes.

Market participants are no longer focused only on altcoins or major cryptocurrencies. Instead, they are engaging with broader financial instruments. This shift suggests a blending of strategies between crypto-native and traditional market participants.

At the same time, volatility in equities appears to play a key role in this transition. When stock markets become unstable, traders often seek opportunities in derivative products. Binance futures markets now serve as one such venue for this activity.

This movement also aligns with the growing overlap between crypto infrastructure and traditional finance. As platforms expand their offerings, traders gain easier access to diversified instruments. That accessibility continues to reshape trading behavior.

S&P 500 Drawdowns Reflect Market Stress Cycles

Alongside this trend, long-term data on the S&P 500 provides context for how traders respond to volatility. The chart shared in the update tracks drawdowns from all-time highs between 2000 and 2026. It presents a clear view of market stress periods.

Major downturns stand out across the timeline. The early 2000s dot-com crash saw a drawdown near 45%. The global financial crisis pushed losses close to 50%, marking the deepest decline. Meanwhile, the 2020 pandemic shock caused a rapid drop of about 35%.

More recent movements show different patterns. The 2022 bear market recorded a decline near 25%, but it lasted longer. In contrast, post-2020 recoveries have been faster, often supported by policy responses and liquidity measures.

The data also shows that smaller corrections occur frequently. Declines between 5% and 15% appear even during strong market phases. These movements are part of normal volatility rather than signs of structural breakdown.

Another pattern emerges in recovery timing. Before 2010, markets often took several years to regain previous highs. Since then, recoveries have become quicker, especially after major shocks. This shift reflects changing market dynamics and intervention tools.

The chart further indicates that markets spend more time near peak levels than in deep declines. Most of the timeline stays close to all-time highs. This pattern suggests a tendency toward recovery rather than prolonged downturns.

Periods of calm also alternate with bursts of volatility. Stable phases, such as 2016 and 2017, are followed by more turbulent conditions. These cycles show that risk does not appear evenly over time.

Taken together, the rise in TradFi participation on crypto platforms and the history of equity drawdowns present a connected narrative. Traders are adapting to volatility across markets while using new tools to manage exposure.

Russia’s lower house of parliament received a draft law aimed at tightening criminal accountability for crypto services operating without regulatory approval. The legislation would attach criminal liability to entities that organize digital currency circulation without a Bank of Russia license, signaling a tougher stance as Moscow moves to regulate the sector ahead of broader digital-asset rules.

Under the draft, individuals who provide crypto-related services without registration with the central bank could face fines of up to 4,000 USD and up to four years in prison. More severe penalties would apply to organized groups or cases involving large-scale damage or illicit gains. The bill envisions compulsory labor for up to five years or imprisonment for as long as seven years when the act is committed by an organized group or causes significant harm. A separate provision would allow fines of up to 1 million rubles (approximately 13,100 USD) or profit-linked penalties for up to five years, depending on the circumstances.

Key takeaways

• The draft law would criminalize unregistered crypto-asset services, expanding the regulatory net beyond existing licensing regimes.
• Penalties scale with the nature of the violation—from individuals facing modest fines and potential prison time to harsher outcomes for organized groups or large-scale wrongdoing.
• The move aligns with Russia’s broader push to regulate digital currencies, but comes while a broader “Digital Currency and Digital Rights” framework is still being formalized and set to take effect in July.
• Russia’s Supreme Court has questioned the necessity of criminal penalties in the absence of the accompanying digital-currency law, calling the measure premature.
• In parallel, Russia faces high-profile crypto-security incidents, such as the Grinex exchange hack, underscoring the real-world risks for traders and exchanges as oversight tightens.
• Earlier in March, a package of crypto regulation proposals included penalties for illegal miners, indicating a multi-pronged regulatory approach that could shape market dynamics going forward.

Regulatory tightening and the licensing regime

The core of the draft law is a licensing regime led by the Bank of Russia. By tying criminal liability to activities that “carry out the organization of digital currency circulation” without a license, lawmakers appear to be moving beyond civil or administrative remedies and into criminal enforcement. The intent, as described in the draft, is to deter unregistered providers and bring a centralized oversight mechanism to what Moscow views as a growing sector with potential for misuse.

Specifically, individuals operating without registration could be fined as much as 4,000 USD and face up to four years in prison. If the operation involves an organized group or yields particularly large profits or damages, penalties would intensify to compulsory labor for up to five years or imprisonment for up to seven years. In addition, the bill contemplates fines up to 1 million rubles or an income-based penalty for up to five years, depending on the case’s particulars.

The legislation is part of a broader trend in Russia toward formalizing oversight of crypto activities, including licensing requirements and centralized supervision. It follows a March package that proposed criminal penalties for illegal crypto mining, signaling a comprehensive framework that would address both exchange activity and mining under a unified regulatory lens.

Judicial cautions and timing concerns

Even as lawmakers push for stricter enforcement, Russia’s Supreme Court has voiced concerns about the bill’s approach. In recent remarks reported by RBC, the court suggested that criminal penalties lack a “reasoned justification” and argued that the measure could be premature before the full regulatory architecture is in place. The court noted the forthcoming Digital Currency and Digital Rights law, expected to take effect in July, would set the groundwork for how digital assets are treated in Russia and how enforcement should be structured.

Observers note the tension between urgency on the legislative side and the Court’s call for measured steps that align with a coherent regulatory framework. If the Digital Currency and Digital Rights law does pass and comes into force on schedule, it could provide the statutory basis for the more punitive powers envisaged in the draft law. Until then, advocates of a cautious, rules-based approach argue that criminal penalties should wait for a clearer legal foundation and for the details of licensing, supervision, and consumer protections to be finalized.

As Russia moves toward more formalized oversight, the debate underscores a key question for the market: what level of risk will participants bear while the regulatory framework remains in flux? For crypto services, the path to compliance may require not only licensing but a broader readiness to meet centralized data-sharing, capital-adequacy, and anti-money-laundering standards that critics say could raise barriers to entry and reshape the competitive landscape.

Grinex hack as a reminder of operational risk

Against the backdrop of regulatory maneuvering, Russia-based exchange Grinex has been dealing with a high-profile security incident. The platform halted trading after reporting losses exceeding 1 billion rubles (roughly 13.7 million USD) in a hack it suspects involved “hostile state” entities. Grinex has since alerted law enforcement and filed a criminal complaint as it works to resolve the incident and safeguard user funds.

The Grinex event highlights the real-world risks that exchanges and users face even as regulators step up scrutiny. Security incidents can complicate compliance efforts by drawing attention from authorities and potentially increasing the appetite for stringent enforcement. The parallel tracks of tightening regulation and cybersecurity stress-testing may influence how quickly market participants seek licensing, improve risk controls, and pursue clearer governance structures.

In the same vein, Russian media coverage and industry reporting have connected these regulatory developments to broader shifts in the country’s crypto landscape. The ongoing discourse reflects a market watching closely for a coherent rulebook that balances innovation with investor protection and national-security considerations.

What to watch next

The most immediate milestones are July’s implementation of the Digital Currency and Digital Rights framework and the legal clarifications that will follow. If the new law enshrines the central-bank licensing regime and criminal penalties for unregistered services, market participants could see a rapid shift toward greater formalization, with more entities seeking compliance measures and registration to avoid potential penalties.

Market observers will also be watching for further clarifications on enforcement practices, including how authorities interpret “organization of digital currency circulation” and what constitutes the threshold for “large-scale” offenses. As the Grinex case unfolds, regulators may use real-world incidents to calibrate enforcement intensity and to demonstrate the practical costs of cyber breaches within a tightly regulated environment.

For investors and builders in Russia’s crypto ecosystem, the current phase signals both caution and opportunity. While the tightening stance could raise compliance costs and limit gray-market activity, it may also foster a more stable regulatory climate that could eventually attract legitimate businesses and institutional participation. The coming weeks will be telling as lawmakers lay out the legislative language and courts weigh the appropriate balance between enforcement and innovation.

Bitcoin price prediction turned aggressively bullish early Friday as CoinDesk reported that perpetual funding rates dropped to their most negative level since 2023 on a seven-day moving average, with ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the market’s heavily short positioning is forced to unwind.

Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction turned aggressively bullish early Friday as CoinDesk reported that perpetual funding rates dropped to their most negative level since 2023 on a seven-day moving average, with ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the market’s heavily short positioning is forced to unwind.

BTC was changing hands near $74,700 in early Asia trading Friday, up 3.5% on the week but down 0.4% on the day as a 10-day global equity rally paused ahead of next week’s Iran ceasefire deadline. The asset has climbed from the mid-$60,000s through March and April despite persistently negative funding, meaning shorts have been paying longs for weeks while price continued to grind higher.

Funding rates are periodic payments between long and short holders in perpetual futures contracts, designed to keep contract prices aligned with spot. When rates go negative, shorts pay longs — a condition that only develops when speculative positioning is tilted heavily against price. The 7-day moving average rate has dropped to approximately -0.005%, per Glassnode data, a reading last seen at the FTX crash bottom in late 2022.

“Funding rates this negative tell you the market is heavily short,” Reis-Faria said. “If Bitcoin continues to move higher despite that, a lot of those positions could get liquidated, and the move can accelerate quickly.” He targets $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the short base unwinds, citing buy pressure from large corporate accumulators as the force most likely to trigger forced liquidations across the short base.

Every prior historical episode of similar funding extremes has aligned with a local price floor. March 2020, mid-2021, the FTX collapse in late 2022, the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024, and the Liberation Day selloff in April 2025 all featured deeply negative funding that resolved with sharp recoveries. For traders tracking the ceasefire hopes around the April 22 deadline as a timing catalyst, this historical pattern reinforces a bullish view on the near-term setup.

What Could Prevent a Squeeze Rally

On-chain data introduces a structural counterpoint. Many active bitcoin holders are currently underwater relative to their acquisition cost, meaning any squeeze-driven rally that approaches their cost basis could generate significant sell pressure from holders who bought in the $75,000 to $95,000 range during 2025’s peak accumulation period. This is sometimes called the “wall of worried holders” — participants who will not be forced to sell but will sell when they can.

A rally to $125,000 would require absorbing that supply sequentially, moving through each cost-basis cluster without capitulating. The oversold signals visible in on-chain and technical data support the bullish case structurally, but the distribution of underwater holders complicates a clean short-squeeze-to-new-high scenario without a strong macro catalyst doing the heavy lifting.

The Catalyst Calendar

Three events over the next two weeks will resolve the current setup. The April 22 Iran ceasefire expiry is the first: a credible extension removes the geopolitical tail risk that has capped risk-asset rallies since February, while a breakdown would likely push BTC toward the $68,000 structural support floor. The FOMC meets April 28-29, and any dovish signal from Chair Powell would reduce the opportunity cost of holding BTC. A confirmed CLARITY Act committee date in early May would add a third potential trigger specific to the digital asset market.

Russia’s government submitted a bill to its parliament’s lower house in an effort to amend the country’s legal code to attach criminal liability for crypto services offered without regulatory approval or licensing.

In a draft law sent to the State Duma on Friday, Russian lawmakers proposed that entities “carrying out activities related to the organization of digital currency circulation,” that operate without a license from Russia’s central bank, could be subject to criminal liability.

Without registration with the Bank of Russia, individuals could face up to $4,000 in fines and up to four years in prison, or more severe penalties if part of an organized group.

“The same act committed by an organized group, or involving the infliction of damage or the extraction of income on a particularly large scale, would be punishable by compulsory labor for up to five years or imprisonment for up to seven years,” the bill’s text said.

The bill also proposes a “fine of up to 1 million rubles [$13,100] or an amount equal to the convicted person’s salary or other income for a period of up to five years.”

The draft law followed a package of bills initially proposed in March that included criminal penalties for illegal crypto miners, but the most recent legislation included details on fines and potential prison time for any unregistered digital asset services.

According to Russian media outlet RBC, the country’s Supreme Court said that the crypto bill lacks “reasoned justification” for criminal penalties.

The court said that the measure was “premature” until Russia enacted its “Digital Currency and Digital Rights law,” expected to go into effect in July. If the bill passes it would give Russia’s government more control and oversight over the crypto industry.

Related: At least a dozen crypto entities attacked since Drift Protocol hack

Russian crypto exchange Grinex still reeling from $14 million hack

Grinex, a Russia-based crypto exchange currently being sanctioned, halted trading for users on Thursday after losing more than 1 billion rubles — about $13.7 million — in a hack it suspected was carried out by “entities of hostile states.”

The company said it forwarded relevant information on the attack to law enforcement agencies and filed a criminal complaint.

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