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Leopold Aschenbrenner is back to losing money in AI stocks

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Leopold Aschenbrenner of hedge fund Situational Awareness has returned after losing billions of dollars in July — and he’s already losing money again. 

CNBC broke the news Friday morning, six weeks after Aschenbrenner’s historic blow-up, that Situational Awareness was re-buying AI stocks and leveraged options on tech stocks.

By Monday’s open, every one of the six tickers tied to his fund had already collapsed, down as much as 8% from Friday’s close.

Situational Awareness is the fund Aschenbrenner still runs after a July collapse in AI valuations erased billions of assets from his portfolio. 

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Despite one of the most spectacular and well-publicized implosions of any fund manager in history, Situational Awareness quietly bought options tied to AMD, Bloom Energy, and CoreWeave this month. It also bought leveraged exposure to other AI names like SK Hynix, SanDisk, and the Roundhill Memory ETF. 

CNBC sources dated those purchases between September 2-10. 

The day after that news broke, those six names opened to negative returns of 5-8% amid a broad AI sell-off this morning.

Read more: Vibe coders faced with frontier AI outage

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Leopold Aschenbrenner is losing money in AI again

Those six tickers didn’t fall because of Aschenbrenner but rather a viral, apocalyptic essay from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei who believes that AI will take over the internet within 6-12 months.

Elon Musk said he agreed with it, and Sam Altman also backed the idea. 

Broad Monday market coverage framed the resulting sell-off as a rotation out of crowded AI trades. Even Donald Trump weighed in on the debate.

The world found out Aschenbrenner was re-buying Friday, and all of his stocks were down by Monday.

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  • AMD closed for trading at $516.13 the day CNBC’s story ran; it opened Monday around $486, down roughly 6%. 
  • Bloom Energy fell 7%.
  • CoreWeave and SanDisk each fell roughly 7%.
  • SK Hynix and the Roundhill Memory ETF each fell about 8%.

Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher, launched Situational Awareness in 2024 with about $225 million.

Backers included Stripe co-founders Patrick and John Collison, former GitHub chief exec Nat Friedman, and investor Daniel Gross. 

Using leverage as high as 400%, Aschenbrenner grew his portfolio and attracted follow-on financing to manage more than $45 billion by the start of July. 

Then he suddenly lost the majority within weeks. 

In July, AI stocks retraced a substantial amount of the price appreciation they had enjoyed during the first half of 2026. 

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Shares of Nebius, SanDisk, Micron, and CoreWeave each fell by more than one-third that month, forcing margin calls and an unwind across tech funds. 

Liquidated in a fire sale, moved prime brokers

Ken Griffin’s Citadel bought the bulk of Situational Awareness’ portfolio at a substantial discount — reportedly after its holdings had sunk to roughly $10 billion, in what the Financial Times called the largest dollar loss in hedge fund history. 

JPMorgan Chase, which had financed the fund’s leverage, cut the fund off afterward. Aschenbrenner moved his prime brokerage relationship to another boutique, Clear Street.

The comeback trade this month was supposed to look different. Rather than traditional margin, the fund has reportedly been using “flex options,” i.e. fully paid contracts that cap losses at the premium paid. 

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The shift in those instruments is tied to Aschenbrenner’s promise of a more conservative risk model that doesn’t seem to be particularly well-timed, given this weekend’s sell-off, regardless of its leverage ratio.

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White House crypto adviser says Trump gave up 'historic' ethics powers in compromise

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White House crypto adviser says Trump gave up 'historic' ethics powers in compromise


President Donald Trump’s digital assets adviser spoke at a Washington event the day after a new compromise language was released for the Clarity Act.

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Banks and state attorneys general challenge CLARITY Act ahead of vote

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CLARITY Act ethics fight blocks 60 Senate votes

Eight banking associations and 17 state attorneys general have challenged parts of the CLARITY Act before a Sep. 15 procedural vote that requires 60 Senate votes.

Summary

  • Eight banking groups want lawmakers to tighten restrictions on rewards paid to stablecoin holders.
  • The groups warned that interest-like incentives could pull deposits from banks and reduce lending.
  • Seventeen state attorneys general said the bill could weaken state powers to pursue crypto fraud.
  • The Sep. 15 vote would open debate on the bill rather than approve its final passage.

Eight banking associations wrote to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Sep. 14, requesting changes to the CLARITY Act before the Senate considers whether to advance it.

Although the associations supported creating lasting rules for digital assets, they argued that the current language could let crypto companies offer stablecoin rewards that function like interest on bank deposits. Their requests center on Section 10404, which covers payments and incentives linked to payment stablecoins.

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The banking letter adds another dispute to the Senate negotiations as lawmakers try to gather the 60 votes needed to proceed. Separately, a coalition led by New York Attorney General Letitia James has warned that federal preemption provisions could restrict state securities enforcement and make it harder to pursue crypto fraud.

Banks say stablecoin rewards could drain deposits

Bank deposits fund lending to households, farmers, small businesses, and local communities, the associations said. In their view, stablecoins that offer incentives similar to deposit interest could encourage customers to move money out of regulated banks.

“Deposits are the foundation of the banking system,” the groups said, arguing that deposit losses could “hinder the ability of depository institutions to extend credit to their customers.”

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Section 10404 prohibits certain interest and yield payments, but the associations said its wording could leave room for rewards calculated from a customer’s stablecoin holdings. In particular, they objected to the word “solely” in subsection (c)(1)(A), saying the restriction might not cover incentives tied partly to a user’s balance.

The groups asked Congress to remove “solely” and revise references to “a payment stablecoin balance” and “an interest-bearing bank deposit.” Their proposal would target reward programs that resemble deposit interest, even if providers attach another condition to the payment.

Seeking a test based on economic effect, the associations also requested a “substantially similar” standard for stablecoin incentives. Such a test would allow regulators to examine whether a reward acts like bank interest instead of relying only on the name or structure chosen by its provider.

Another request concerns Section 10404(3)(B), which the banking groups want Congress to remove. They said the provision could permit companies to calculate rewards according to a stablecoin balance, the length of time an asset is held, or a customer’s tenure with a platform.

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The latest Republican proposal would give the Treasury secretary authority to impose an 18-month circuit breaker on stablecoin rewards if payment stablecoins cause substantial deposit outflows from community banks. According to the revised Senate proposal, the 635-page draft contains 126 changes requested by Democratic negotiators.

Banking organizations, however, are asking lawmakers to prevent interest-like rewards through the bill itself instead of relying only on a temporary Treasury intervention after deposit losses occur.

State attorneys general want enforcement powers preserved

While banks have focused on deposits and lending, the state officials have objected to provisions governing the division of authority between federal and state regulators.

James led a bipartisan coalition of 17 attorneys general in urging the Senate to reject the current bill. The group said the legislation could let the Securities and Exchange Commission override parts of state securities regulation, including registration requirements used to oversee businesses selling investments to local residents.

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“As written, the Clarity Act would embolden scammers and potentially strip attorneys general of our authority to protect our states’ investors and their wallets,” James said.

According to the coalition, granting the SEC power to preempt state registration authorities could create uncertainty over the cases that state officials may bring against crypto businesses. The concern applies directly to American investors because state securities agencies and attorneys general often investigate local complaints, seek restitution, and enforce state consumer-protection laws.

The officials also asked Congress to retain state registration systems and the existing federal-state enforcement partnership. Their position does not oppose federal crypto rules outright; instead, the coalition argued that a national framework should not remove state tools already used against fraud.

As previously covered by crypto.news, the revised bill would allow state attorneys general to enforce conflict-of-interest restrictions for public officials. James and the other officials said that the addition did not settle their separate concerns about securities registration and fraud enforcement.

Crypto losses support states’ fraud concerns

The attorneys general tied their warning to the amount of money Americans have lost through crypto-related schemes. According to figures cited by the coalition, complaints submitted to the FBI during 2025 involved $11.4 billion in cryptocurrency losses, up 22% from the previous year.

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Such complaints can include several types of crime, and a complaint does not by itself establish that a violation occurred. Still, the coalition used the FBI total to argue that states need to retain their authority while digital-asset fraud continues to affect U.S. residents.

State regulators can pursue conduct under local securities, consumer-protection, and fraud laws, depending on the facts and the law in each jurisdiction. The attorneys general fear that unclear preemption language could lead defendants to challenge state cases by arguing that federal law has displaced local authority.

James raised similar objections in July, when she asked lawmakers to preserve state enforcement powers while strengthening provisions related to money laundering, ethics and investor protection. Monday’s coalition included officials from states such as California, Illinois, Arizona, Kansas, Ohio and Wisconsin.

The bipartisan membership gives the opposition a different character from the party negotiations taking place in the Senate. Rather than focusing on whether Democrats or Republicans control the final text, the attorneys general have framed their dispute around the powers their offices would retain after enactment.

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CLARITY Act faces a 60-vote procedural test

The Senate is scheduled to hold its initial procedural vote on Sep. 15. The action would determine whether senators begin debating the legislation; it would not enact the CLARITY Act or send it to the president.

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning supporters need votes from at least seven members of the Democratic caucus if every Republican backs the motion. No Democratic leader had announced enough support to clear that threshold as of Sep. 14.

Lawmakers have negotiated disputes involving government ethics, stablecoin rewards, financial crime rules and protections for developers of noncustodial software. The latest draft also addresses the roles of the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in supervising digital assets and crypto intermediaries.

The House passed its version of the CLARITY Act by a 294–134 vote in July 2025, while the Senate Banking Committee advanced its proposal 15–9 in May 2026. Senators did not hold a floor vote before the August recess as disagreements continued over several parts of the bill.

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Earlier coverage of the scheduled procedural vote noted that Senate Majority Leader Thune filed cloture on Aug. 8. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged senators to approve the market-structure measure, while Galaxy Digital lowered its estimated chance of passage in 2026 from about 75% in May to roughly 10% in September.

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Google Gemini AI Predicts +300% Move for Chainlink (LINK) by 2027

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Chainlink Price Prediction: Google Gemini AI predicts that LINK could surge more than +300% between now and January 1, 2027

Assuming full-blown bull-market conditions return between now and the end of 2026, Google Gemini AI predicts that Chainlink (LINK) could be trading as high as $35 on January 1, 2027, if full-blown bull-market conditions return.

LINK is currently around $11–$12, so my target would require roughly a 3x move from current levels. That sounds aggressive, but it wouldn’t be unusual for LINK during a genuine altcoin mania phase.

Recent momentum has already been significant: LINK rallied more than 50% over a recent seven-day period, while its total value secured recovered from roughly $43Bn in June to nearly $57Bn by the end of August.

Chainlink Price Prediction: Google Gemini AI predicts that LINK could surge more than +300% between now and January 1, 2027

(SOURCE: Google Gemini AI Predicts LINK Price)

Google Gemini AI Predicts That Chainlink (LINK) Can Hit $35 buy January 1, 2027

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The fundamental argument for LINK is perhaps stronger than in previous market cycles. Chainlink is increasingly positioned as essential infrastructure for tokenized assets, cross-chain transactions, and institutional blockchain applications, rather than merely being another DeFi token.

Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) continues to gain integrations, and its oracle infrastructure is increasingly utilized across various financial and blockchain applications. Recent developments include partnerships with Coinbase/Base, Aave, Robinhood Chain, and other institutional financial services.

There is also evident institutional demand. LINK spot ETF products have seen sustained positive inflows, with cumulative inflows reported to exceed $145 million by late August.

The key distinction in a full bull market is that valuations can significantly detach from current fundamentals. If Bitcoin reaches new highs, Ethereum enters a strong expansion phase, and capital shifts toward infrastructure and utility tokens, LINK could attract institutional and retail investment at the same time.

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At $35, LINK would have a market capitalization of about $25 to $30Bn, depending on the circulating supply at that time. This figure is substantial but entirely plausible for one of the most established crypto infrastructure projects if the entire sector enters a speculative expansion.

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The Technical Analysis Supporting the $30+ LINK Prediction

LINK’s technical picture is particularly interesting. It recently broke above a multi-month descending trendline and rebounded from the $7–$8 range, establishing the $10–$11 zone as key support.

Short-term technical analysis highlights $10.79–$11 as key support, while $12.50–$13 is the immediate breakout zone. If LINK sustains a move above $12.50, it could pave the way for targets at $15 and potentially $18.

On the longer-term weekly chart, $15 is a key level to watch. One recent analysis suggests that after a confirmed weekly breakout above $15, the next upside targets could be $20.76, $27.88, and $30.86, with about $38 representing the next major resistance level.

In a full bull market, a progression from $15 to $20-$28 and then to $30+ is technically plausible, with $35 becoming achievable once LINK establishes a new all-time high.

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As LINK Trades in a Tight Range, Traders Eye Early-Stage Plays Like LiquidChain

For traders holding major assets that have already accounted for most near-term catalysts, the current market flatness can create its own pull. Typically, capital gravitates toward asymmetric opportunities when blue-chip stocks stall.

LiquidChain (LIQUID) is positioning itself as a Layer 3 infrastructure solution that integrates the liquidity of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana into a single execution environment.

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Its “deploy-once” architecture lets developers build once and access all three ecosystems, preventing liquidity from fragmenting across chains. The presale token is currently priced at $0.014954, with $965,000 raised so far.

LiquidChain’s core features include a Unified Liquidity Layer, Single-Step Execution, and Verifiable Settlement. As always, do your own research (DYOR). For more information, visit the presale website.

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The post Google Gemini AI Predicts +300% Move for Chainlink (LINK) by 2027 appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Bank of America (BAC) Q3 investment banking fees to drop over 10%

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Bank of America (BAC) Q3 investment banking fees to drop over 10%

Brian Moynihan, Chairman and CEO of Bank of America, testifies during a Senate Banking Committee hearing at the Hart Senate Office Building on December 06, 2023 in Washington, DC. 

Win Mcnamee | Getty Images


Bank of America is seeing a far more subdued few months for its Wall Street advisory and trading businesses after a blockbuster second quarter, CEO Brian Moynihan told analysts Monday.

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Investment banking fees will likely decline by more than 10% in the third quarter from the year-earlier period, while trading revenue will be roughly flat, Moynihan said at a conference. That compares to a second quarter in which the bank posted a 50% jump in investment banking fees and a 33% jump in trading revenue.

“What we’re seeing is the market generally in investment banking is down 10%,” Moynihan said, citing Dealogic data. “We’re not as well positioned in some of the businesses that have more activity, so we’ll be down probably a bit more than that.”

Bank of America shares were down 5% in afternoon trading Monday following Moynihan’s comments.

The muted outlook from the country’s second-largest bank by assets could be an early signal that Wall Street’s AI-fueled advisory and trading boom might have hit turbulence.

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While Moynihan pointed to a robust deal pipeline, particularly in middle-market investment banking, the projected double-digit decline in investment banking may make investors wonder if the industry’s surge in capital markets activity will prove short-lived.

Later Monday, Citigroup CFO Gonzalo Luchetti told analysts that investment banking is tracking for “low single digit” revenue growth in the third quarter, while trading was heading for “mid single digit” revenue growth.

Those figures could climb if Citigroup’s bankers and traders end the quarter on a strong note, he said.

“September is a key month,” Luchetti said. “These few weeks are very meaningful.”

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XRP News: XRPL Records 2K Transactions from 20 Wallets

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The XRPL is in the news after processing a record 3.2K TXs in ledger 106,965,249 yesterday, but 2,000 of those came from just 20 wallets.

The XRP Ledger processed a record 3,254 transactions in ledger 106,965,249 yesterday, but 2,000 of the news came from just 20 accounts sending identical 1-drop payments, each worth one-millionth of an XRP.

The new high overtook two earlier single-ledger marks of 2,713 and 2,768 transactions, both set within a day of the record. At least 890 transactions failed with tec result codes but still burned fees, and the 20-account batch alone paid about 0.04 XRP in fees while moving just 0.002 XRP.

The XRPL is in the news after processing a record 3.2K TXs in ledger 106,965,249 yesterday, but 2,000 of those came from just 20 wallets.
XRP TX Counts/Price, Glassnode

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Twenty Wallets, One Ledger

Ledger 106,965,249 closed on Sunday, Sept. 13, holding 3,254 transactions, a number far outside the normal range for the network. A scan of 7,600 consecutive ledgers from 18:00 UTC on Sept. 13 to 02:00 UTC on Sept. 14 found 638,801 transactions in total, an average of about 84 per ledger, with only 43 ledgers in that window topped 2,000 transactions, and only the record ledger cleared 2,800.

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Twenty accounts sent exactly 100 transactions each, contributing 2,000 of the 3,254 total, and every one was a 1-drop payment. Combined, that batch moved just 0.002 XRP, less than a cent at current prices, while each transaction paid a 20-drop fee, meaning the group burned roughly five cents in aggregate to generate a transaction record with effectively zero economic transfer.

The remaining activity was more typical of ordinary XRP Ledger usage: 458 OfferCreate orders on the built-in decentralized exchange, 229 ticket creations, 74 check cashes, and 22 trust-line changes.

At least 890 transactions in the ledger failed outright with tec result codes, mostly payments whose paths ran dry or fill-or-kill orders that could not be filled. Daily XRPL activity stayed above 2 million transactions through early September, according to the report, peaking at 2.572 million on Sept. 3, so the concentrated 1-drop batch stands out as an anomaly rather than a continuation of a broader adoption trend.

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As wallet concentration has shown elsewhere on XRP, a small cluster of addresses can distort network statistics without reflecting a shift in genuine demand.

Hussein Zangana, the XRP Ledger Foundation’s community director known as Vet on X, flagged the news in a public post and said the pattern most likely reflected throughput testing, noting that simple XRP payments place a very low load on the network. He did not identify who was behind the batch.

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XRP News: Why The Fees Didn’t Spike?

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Under XRPL’s own transaction-result documentation, a tec failure still destroys the XRP paid as a transaction cost and consumes a sequence number, even though the underlying action never completes. That means failed payments and unfilled offers padded the ledger’s transaction count without delivering any successful transfer, inflating the record’s headline number relative to its actual economic content.

The ledger absorbed the load without a fee spike because XRPL uses dynamic size limits rather than fixed block caps like Bitcoin. The network’s soft limit rises when a ledger contains more transactions than expected and falls if consensus takes longer than five seconds, and early Monday, the expected ledger size sat at 3,082 transactions with the open-ledger fee still at the 10-drop minimum.

Xrp (XRP)
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A small sliver of the record ledger pointed to more substantive use: eight transactions carried memos from t54 labs’ x402 facilitator, the tool that lets AI agents pay for services in XRP and RLUSD, following the network’s milestone of 1 million AI agent transactions in July.

For traders, the takeaway is straightforward: a transaction record is not the same as a demand signal. The event is best read alongside other XRP catalysts this month that carry more direct implications for price, since whale-driven or bot-driven network activity has repeatedly diverged from actual buying pressure on XRP.

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XRP Triangle Puts $1.38 Resistance Ahead of $1.60 Test

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XRP price breakout prospects face neutral RSI, bearish MACD and heavy cost-basis resistance before any potential move toward $1.60.

XRP price closed around $1.35 yesterday after trading as high as $1.43 two sessions earlier. Analyst identifies $1.38 as the level XRP needs to clear for a bullish breakout that could open a path toward $1.60. The setup remains conditional, however, with the token still trading near a closely watched support and resistance range.

Martinez, who posts as Ali Charts on X, has identified a triangle developing between $1.31-$1.35 support and $1.38 resistance. XRP needs to hold the support zone as it approaches the apex of that pattern, while a decisive move above $1.38 would confirm the breakout and could strengthen momentum.

Also, according to Ali, a break below $1.31 could instead weaken the near-term bullish structure and turn the current support area into resistance during a recovery.

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Why $1.38 XRP Matters More Than Most Price Resistance Levels?

Cost-basis data shows that more than 4.8 billion XRP were acquired between $1.31 and $1.38, making the band a potentially important demand zone. If buyers continue defending those levels, the concentration of holders near their acquisition prices could provide support beyond the triangle pattern itself.

The same data also highlights the resistance that may await above the breakout threshold. Approximately 1.99 billion XRP were acquired at around $1.60, followed by another 1.98 billion at around $1.68. That supply suggests $1.60 would be the next major test after a breakout rather than an unobstructed upside target.

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XRP price breakout prospects face neutral RSI, bearish MACD and heavy cost-basis resistance before any potential move toward $1.60.

Recent derivatives positioning provides a potentially constructive signal. Total XRP futures open interest fell roughly 16%, from 2.77 billion XRP on August 17 to 2.34 billion on August 31, even as XRP rallied almost 40% over the same period. That divergence suggests the rally was not simply driven by traders aggressively increasing leverage.

CME open interest rose roughly 36% to 387 million XRP, raising CME’s share of total XRP futures exposure from around 10% to 17%. The shift could indicate greater participation from professional and institutional traders, although CME positions can also be used for hedging rather than directional bullish bets.

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The Technical Picture Isn’t Confirming Yet

Xrp (XRP)
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Despite the potential bullish setup, XRP has not yet broken resistance. The 14-day RSI sits around 49.6, which is effectively neutral, while the MACD remains in a sell signal. XRP is also below its 50-, 100-, and 200-period simple moving averages, with the 200-period average near $1.39.

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That alignment matters because the $1.38 breakout threshold sits near another technically significant moving-average resistance level. A decisive or convincing move above $1.38 would be needed to strengthen the bullish case, rather than leaving XRP below the major moving averages that currently remain overhead.

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Strive Buys $36.6M in Bitcoin, Holdings Hit 25,000 BTC

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Strive Buys $36.6M in Bitcoin, Holdings Hit 25,000 BTC

Strive, a top-five Bitcoin treasury company and asset manager, purchased 469 Bitcoin for about $36.6 million last week, bringing its holdings to 25,000 BTC.

According to a Monday filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Strive acquired the Bitcoin between Sept. 8 and Sept. 11 at an average price of $77,954 per BTC, including fees and expenses.

The biggest crypto by market cap was last trading at $78,823, according to Coingecko data.

Strive CEO Matt Cole said the purchase was funded entirely through proceeds from sales of SATA, the company’s perpetual preferred stock, which has now surpassed $1 billion in notional value outstanding. The filing shows SATA shares outstanding increased by 402,541 over the same period to about 10.4 million shares.

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As of Sept. 11, Strive also held $204.2 million in cash and cash equivalents and 505,000 shares of Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, valued at about $49.8 million.

Strive became the fifth-largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holder in late August, when a 1,800-BTC purchase pushed it past crypto exchange Bullish. The company was co-founded in 2022 by now-Ohio Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and became a publicly traded Bitcoin treasury company in September 2025 following its merger with Asset Entities.

Related: Bitcoin rally sends crypto stocks soaring as miners, treasury companies jump

Strive valuation climbs alongside Bitcoin accumulation

Strive’s Nasdaq-traded shares gained more than 7% on Monday to around $29, extending a rally that has seen the stock price more than double over the past month, according to Yahoo Finance data.

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The rally had already pushed Strive’s market capitalization above that of Metaplanet last week, despite the Japanese Bitcoin treasury company holding substantially more Bitcoin. As of Monday, Strive had a market capitalization of about $2.5 billion, compared with $1.9 billion for Metaplanet.

Top 10 Bitcoin treasury companies. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET

Strive’s rally has also pushed its shares above the $27 exercise price for warrants due to expire in mid-October. If warrant holders exercise them, they would buy Strive shares at $27 apiece, potentially providing the company with more than $700 million in new capital, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net.

Cole said earlier this month that it was “not out of the realm of possibility” for Strive to become the second-largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holder by year-end, though he said that was not his base case.

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Trump's $800 million stake into World Liberty Financial's token now has a timeline to becoming sellable

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Bitcoin above $63,500, but further US-Iran strike threats remain


Onchain records show that an $800 million crypto stake that matched Donald Trump’s holding was moved into a vesting contract, locking any sales until 2028 after a mandatory 10% token burn.

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Bitcoin Targets $80K as Trump Alludes To End To Iran War

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Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $79,000 after Monday’s Wall Street open as markets dissected mixed signals over the US-Iran war.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin rises above $79,000 as oil prices fall after US President Donald Trump suggests the Iran war could be nearing an end.
  • Markets raise the odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike to more than 90%.
  • Bitcoin tests its 50-week exponential moving average after closing below the key trend line on Sunday.

Bitcoin gains as Trump references end to Iran war

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD erasing its weekend losses and gaining around 3% on the day.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Crypto saw fresh upside as US President Donald Trump boosted prospects of a peace deal with Iran. 

“The failing Nation of Iran wants to make a deal, quickly and badly. I will determine whether or not the U.S.A. will choose to engage – The concept of which we are open to,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.

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US equities initially gained at Monday’s Wall Street open but subsequently turned red amid ongoing uncertainty over the fate of key oil-transit routes in the Middle East. The S&P 500 was down 0.3% at the time of writing.

In addition to the Strait of Hormuz, both Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait were under threat as the conflict expanded beyond Iran.

US WTI crude oil remained above $100 per barrel at the time of writing, while Brent crude traded at $105 per barrel.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Trump later doubled down on his prediction of lower oil prices while also alluding to an end to the Iran conflict, causing oil prices to dip.

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“With the temporary exception of Oil, prices are coming down sharply, and Oil will drop like a rock as soon as the Military Conflict with Iran is over, and that will not be long,” a separate Truth Social post read.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a hike at 92.7%, up from 59.4% a week ago. 

Fed target rate probability comparison for Sept. 16 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Commenting on the developments, trading company QCP Capital predicted that continued high oil prices would directly impact US financial policy. The Federal Reserve will announce its latest decision on interest-rate changes on Wednesday, with markets predicting a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75-4%.

“A prolonged disruption would increase the risk of higher energy costs feeding into transport and logistics pricing, potentially lifting inflation expectations and constraining the Fed’s ability to pause tightening even as growth slows,” QCP wrote on Monday, adding:

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“This dynamic creates policy tension: continued energy prices could keep the Fed restrictive, while economic data weakness from higher energy costs could argue for patience.”

Focus shifts to Fed wording around interest-rate move

Discussing the implications of the week’s Fed decision for BTC price action, QCP argued that risk assets had already priced in a 0.25% hike, with less volatility expected as a result.

Related: CLARITY Act vote meets Fed rate hike: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

An overall muted response to last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, it argued, means that Fed officials’ language now mattered more than the decision itself.

“This containment reflects a shift in focus: the binary question of whether the Fed will hike has been answered; the critical issue for positioning is now how policymakers frame the move and what it signals about the path ahead,” it wrote.

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BTC/USD returned above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,430 on Monday after initially closing the weekly candle below it. As Cointelegraph reported, the 50-week EMA represents a key support target for Bitcoin bulls to reclaim as part of a bull-market comeback.

BTC/USD one-week chart with 50 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

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Is Canada Trying to Join the E.U.? What to Know as Carney Seeks Partnership

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Is Canada Trying to Join the E.U.? What to Know as Carney Seeks Partnership

In July, Carney, in a joint op-ed with Finland’s President Alexander Stubb, urged the “middle powers of the world” to “unite.”

Championing middle power countries that possess significant economic power and diplomatic influence, but lack market or military power, the leaders implored: “In a rapidly changing world, we have the grit and the sisu to chart the path ahead—and we know that so have many others whom we invite to join us on this quest.”

Leblod explains that “ultimately trust has been eroded” with the U.S. and Canada must re-think its place in the wider global economy in the long-term.

“The first time we thought Trump was a blimp, but he’s not, and we’re looking at what’s happening in terms of democracy and political polarization, and a lot of Canadians think we can’t rely on the U.S.,” he says.

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According to a poll by Nanos Research, conducted between Aug. 30 and Sept. 2, 74% of Canadians disagreed that “the U.S. is a trustworthy ally of Canada.” An earlier poll by Angus Reid Institute, conducted between July 10-14, found that 42% of respondents said they think the Canadian government should approach the U.S. as an enemy/potential threat.

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