Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated above $77,000 after Friday’s Wall Street open as gold joined the crypto rally to hit 14-week highs.

Key points:

• Bitcoin and gold both hit their highest levels since May 15 against the US dollar.
• Analysis ties the strong performance firmly to US government debt policy.
• Polymarket odds of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 before 2027 reach 48%.

Analysis: Bitcoin and gold gains not “surprise”

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD cooling after reaching its highest levels since May 15, still up nearly 6% on the day.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Gold echoed the move, reaching multi-month highs of $4,632 per ounce, up 2.2% on the day at the time of writing. On a monthly basis, BTC/USD and XAU/USD were up 13% and 16%, respectively.

BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“What’s happening now in gold and crypto should not come as a surprise,” market commentary The Kobeissi Letter wrote in a response on X.

Kobeissi attributed the rapid gains in precious metals and crypto to a combination of inflation, deficit spending and US Treasury policy. Record government deficit spending and the Treasury Department’s pledge to at least double the size of certain debt buyback operations to $4 billion helped drive the rally in both asset classes, Kobeissi argued.

Discussing Bitcoin’s reaction to the current macro landscape, trading company QCP Capital noted that the financial stress signals went beyond the US, highlighting surging Japanese government bond yields after a rare joint currency intervention in the yen earlier this month.

“The most notable cross-asset signal this week has been the divergence after Treasury’s announcement. Treasuries initially rallied before giving back much of the move. BTC and gold did not retrace to the same extent,” it wrote in its latest Market Color analysis, adding:

“That does not establish a new liquidity or monetary regime, but it does highlight the sensitivity of alternative assets to changes in long-end rates and the dollar.”

Polymarket 2026 odds of $90,000 BTC near 50%

As BTC price upside passed 20% over two days, consensus over potential targets through year-end began to improve. 

Data from prediction service Polymarket put the odds of BTC/USD hitting $90,000 before 2027 at 48% at the time of writing, up sharply since the start of the week.

Odds of BTC/USD hitting $90,000 by Jan. 1, 2027 (screenshot). Source: Polymarket

Related: Strategy Bitcoin treasury hits breakeven point as BTC price passes $77K

Some market participants, however, remained skeptical. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital stressed that Bitcoin needed to reclaim its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,232, a trend line it rejected in January.

“Break the Downtrend and Bitcoin will confirm entry into a new technical Macro Uptrend. Reject from here however and price will maintain its series of Lower Highs,” he told X followers. 

“History suggests there’s still time for price to continue its Downtrend.”

BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

US regulators have issued long trading and registration bans against two former FTX-linked executives as part of civil enforcement tied to the exchange’s collapse. In a separate SDNY matter, prosecutors are pushing back on a motion to dismiss in a case involving alleged insider betting on Polymarket.

Taken together, the rulings and filings underscore how US oversight is extending beyond criminal proceedings—using civil instruments to restrict market access and to continue pursuing novel questions around how prediction-market “event contracts” should be treated under federal commodities law.

Key takeaways

• The CFTC entered consent orders imposing five-year trading bans on Caroline Ellison and Zixiao “Gary” Wang, tied to their FTX roles.
• Those same orders also add registration bans—10 years for Ellison and eight years for Wang—separately from criminal outcomes.
• In SDNY, prosecutors opposed a motion to dismiss filed by a US soldier accused of more than $400,000 in alleged nonpublic-information trades on Polymarket.
• The government argued the defendant’s “ambiguous” Commodity Exchange Act theories raise issues that are not appropriate for a motion-to-dismiss stage.

CFTC consent orders: Ellison and Wang face trading and registration bans

On Tuesday, the US District Court for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) entered consent orders connected to a 2022 enforcement action brought by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The orders involve former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison and FTX co-founder Zixiao “Gary” Wang.

Under the CFTC’s terms, both individuals received a five-year trading ban related to their positions in the events surrounding FTX’s collapse. The Commission also required additional restrictions on each executive’s market-facing activities: Ellison was ordered to undergo a 10-year registration ban, while Wang received an eight-year registration ban.

According to CFTC enforcement director David Miller, the restrictions were imposed in recognition of what the CFTC characterized as Wang’s and Ellison’s “material assistance in the Commission’s FTX-related investigations.”

Importantly, the civil case handled through these consent orders is separate from criminal proceedings tied to allegations that customer funds were misused at FTX. Earlier criminal outcomes included a two-year prison sentence for Ellison and a “time served” outcome for Wang, as reported in coverage of the parallel matters.

Why these civil bans matter after criminal cases

Civil enforcement actions like these can still shape the post-FTX landscape even when criminal cases are winding down. Trading bans and registration bans directly affect whether a person can participate in regulated market activity, which can have longer operational consequences than criminal sentencing alone.

Here, the CFTC’s approach also highlights a key feature of how US financial regulators pursue accountability: consent orders can produce fast, court-approved restrictions without the need for a contested merits ruling in the civil case itself. While the underlying criminal cases address criminal liability, these orders focus on deterrence and on limiting future involvement in regulated trading and registration.

For market participants, the practical effect is clear: even as FTX’s executive-level criminal cases progressed on a separate track, the CFTC’s civil process kept moving to close off future access to trading and registration for key figures connected to the firm’s failure.

SDNY dispute over Polymarket insider-betting allegations

In another SDNY filing released this week, lawyers for the US government opposed a motion to dismiss from Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US soldier accused of using nonpublic information to generate more than $400,000 through event contracts on the prediction market platform Polymarket.

Prosecutors say Van Dyke’s trading was connected to a military operation involving the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January. The defense motion, filed on July 31, sought dismissal of charges by arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act—the legal framework at the center of three of the charges—was “ambiguous” in treating event contracts as “swaps” within the CFTC’s jurisdiction.

In the government’s Wednesday opposition filing, prosecutors contended that Van Dyke’s argument depended on hypothetical scenarios and broader questions about “ongoing litigation over state gaming laws,” which they said were unnecessary for the court to resolve at the motion-to-dismiss stage.

“Van Dyke’s motion asks the Court to make a factual determination not appropriate at the motion-to-dismiss stage,” SDNY Deputy US Attorney Sean Buckley argued in the filing. Buckley said the defendant’s approach relied on speculative assertions about facts drawn from the indictment and “incorrect conclusions” about the nature of the charge, particularly with respect to whether the alleged conduct involved “property.”

As of Friday, the court had not posted a decision on the motion to dismiss to the public docket.

How the case frames event contracts as commodities

The procedural fight in the Polymarket matter is significant because it turns on how the Commodity Exchange Act applies to event contracts—an issue that has been central to the government’s theory of the case. Van Dyke’s defense attempts to recast the charging statute as too uncertain, while prosecutors argue the legal and factual issues raised by the defense are premature.

For traders and platform users, the broader stakes are about what kinds of market instruments regulators view as sufficiently tied to commodities law enforcement. If the government’s theory prevails through the next stages, it could reinforce the idea that certain prediction-market structures may fall within the CFTC’s reach. If the defense meaningfully limits the statute’s application, courts may narrow how event contracts are categorized.

At this point, the key development is not a ruling on the merits, but the court’s next step after the opposition: whether it will deny dismissal, require further briefing, or allow the case to proceed with the government’s allegations intact.

Readers should watch for the SDNY decision on the motion to dismiss in the Polymarket matter and, separately, whether additional FTX-related civil enforcement actions follow the pattern set by the CFTC consent orders—especially as courts continue to translate civil theories into concrete trading and registration limits.

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen expects Bitcoin to remain broadly around current levels through the end of the year despite its recent surge, citing interest rates and broader macroeconomic conditions as key factors shaping the cryptocurrency’s outlook.

Speaking on Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets podcast, Chen said predicting whether Bitcoin (BTC) will finish the year above or below $70,000 is difficult, pointing to the possibility of higher interest rates as one factor that could pressure prices.

Cointelegraph host interviews Bitget CEO Gracy Chen. Source: Trade Secrets

“If any of that happens, the price should go down, at least theoretically,” Chen said, adding that BTC has become increasingly integrated with traditional finance and sensitive to broader macroeconomic conditions.

“My guess is maybe around the same range,” Chen said, adding that BTC could finish the year $10,000 to $20,000 above or below current levels, which she described as her “more responsible” forecast.

Related: Bitcoin rally sends crypto stocks soaring as miners, treasury companies jump

Chen sees US Bitcoin purchases as unlikely

Chen was also skeptical that the US government will begin purchasing Bitcoin for its national reserve before the end of President Donald Trump’s term, calling such a move unlikely within the next two years.

The Trump administration established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March 2025 using BTC already forfeited to the federal government, while directing officials to explore budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional BTC.

The US government currently holds an estimated 328,372 BTC, according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, much of it accumulated through law enforcement seizures and asset forfeitures rather than direct purchases.

Top 5 government Bitcoin holdings. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET

Chen said actively purchasing Bitcoin would be a significantly bigger policy decision, requiring debate among lawmakers and political parties despite the administration’s broadly crypto-friendly stance.

“From a policy perspective, it’s probably unlikely,” Chen said. “I just don’t see it coming right now.”

Magazine: Bitcoin to $1M by 2030 is ‘mathematically impossible’ says Markus Thielen

A Hyperliquid testnet deployer using Kraken’s name has whitelisted 10 wallets and tested three compliance controls, raising the possibility that the centralized exchange has been experimenting with a permissioned HIP-3 market.

Blockworks analyst Shaunda Devens reported on Aug. 22 that a deployer called “Kraken HIP-3 test DEX” had activated a permission system known as Star gating on Hyperliquid’s testnet on Aug. 19.

The deployment has added 10 wallets to its approved-user list and tested three of five compliance controls observed on the testnet, according to Devens. A validator has also been registered under the name “Kraken Exchange Validator.”

Kraken’s connection to the HIP-3 test remains unconfirmed

Devens said Hyperliquid has been adding testnet functions that could support regulated or licensed operators. Along with wallet whitelisting, the observed tools let a deployer cancel a user’s open orders, close positions through reduce-only orders, and move collateral.

Unlike an ordinary user-submitted trade, each action gives the deployer direct control over an account or position. An operator could use the functions to restrict access, respond to sanctions or legal orders, reduce risk, and remove funds from an account when its rules require intervention.

Such controls are common at centralized exchanges, where account access depends on identity checks and compliance screening. Applying them to HIP-3 would create a permissioned market that still uses Hyperliquid’s on-chain order book and settlement infrastructure.

In her post, Devens asked whether Kraken could become “the first compliant HIP-3 deployer,” but she also noted that the name does not prove Kraken’s participation. Hyperliquid’s testnet allows permissionless deployments, meaning an unrelated user could create a market or validator carrying the exchange’s name.

Neither Kraken nor Hyperliquid had publicly confirmed a partnership or test when this report was written. The available evidence, therefore, shows that a Kraken-branded deployment exists and has used the new controls, not that Kraken created it.

How Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework works

HIP-3, short for Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal 3, allows independent builders to operate perpetual futures markets through HyperCore, the network’s trading engine. HyperCore supplies the order book, matching system, margin functions, and liquidation process, while each deployer selects its markets and trading rules.

As crypto.news previously explained, HIP-3 has been active on mainnet since Oct. 13, 2025. A builder must stake 500,000 HYPE to operate an independent perpetual exchange without approval from Hyperliquid’s core team.

Deployers choose the listed assets, price oracles, collateral, margin requirements, leverage limits, and funding settings. The first three assets can be introduced without an auction, while later listings require deployers to compete through a Dutch auction.

The 500,000 HYPE stake acts as a financial bond. Validators can slash it if a deployer manipulates an oracle or breaks market rules, and the requirement remains in effect for 30 days after the operator closes its markets.

HIP-3 deployers also receive 50% of the fees from their markets. According to the July 3 report, HIP-3 open interest had surpassed $1.43 billion, while contracts tracking equities and commodities had become seven of Hyperliquid’s 10 largest markets by trading volume.

Permissioned functions would modify one important part of that model. Although anyone could still deploy a HIP-3 market after meeting the protocol requirements, a deployer using Star gating could limit trading on its own market to approved wallets.

Such an arrangement could allow an operator to combine public blockchain settlement with identity checks, location restrictions, or other account-level rules. Whether the functions will reach the mainnet, and under what conditions, has not been confirmed.

Kraken has expanded regulated and on-chain markets

The testnet name has attracted attention partly because Kraken and its parent company, Payward, have spent 2026 adding securities, tokenized assets and on-chain trading services.

On Aug. 18, the exchange launched U.S. stock trading for eligible customers across the European Economic Area. The service covers more than 7,000 traditional U.S.-listed stocks, over 700 xStocks, and more than 600 crypto assets through one account.

Payward Europe Digital Solutions, a Cyprus investment firm authorized under the European Union’s MiFID II framework, provides the conventional stock service. Kraken said xStocks had generated more than $38 billion in transaction volume since the tokenized products launched in June 2025.

Earlier in 2026, the company introduced xChange, an on-chain execution system initially supporting more than 70 tokenized equities across Ethereum and Solana. Kraken later allowed eligible customers outside the United States to use selected xStocks as collateral for futures and margin positions.

Payward has also been taking the product beyond U.S. equities. Through a July agreement with trading infrastructure company GTN, it plans to add shares from Hong Kong before moving into the United Kingdom, Europe, South Korea, and other approved markets, subject to local licenses.

Devens cited Hyperliquid’s work involving xStocks and Payward’s recent business activity as reasons the test might be connected to Kraken. Her assessment remains an inference based on the names and timing rather than confirmation from either company.

U.S. derivatives rules would still limit access

For U.S. users, a permissioned HIP-3 deployment would not by itself make on-chain perpetual contracts legally available. Commodity derivatives offered to American retail traders generally must operate through entities registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

An Aug. 3 review of CFTC crypto oversight found that regulated crypto derivatives venues in the United States operate through designated contract markets, clearing organizations, and registered intermediaries. The agency approved the listing of a Bitcoin perpetual futures contract on a registered exchange in May 2026 and issued guidance covering continuous trading, clearing and settlement.

The CFTC has also pursued offshore derivatives platforms that served U.S. customers without registration. Wallet screening and order controls could help an operator enforce geographic restrictions, but the functions do not replace registration or other legal requirements.

Risk controls also matter because HIP-3 deployers select their own price sources and market settings. On July 28, a Hyperliquid contract tracking SK Hynix shares fell 17.9% intraday after a single unusually low trade on South Korea’s NextTrade entered the contract’s oracle system.

The SK Hynix contract was operated by Trade.xyz under HIP-3. One share changed hands at 1.272 million won, 29.96% below the previous close, before the underlying price recovered from the isolated transaction. HyperInsight said the on-chain contract fell from about $1,128 to $927 and later returned above $1,100.

Trade.xyz retained responsibility for the oracle, leverage rules and settlement process, while Hyperliquid’s documentation allowed the deployer to halt trading, change open-interest limits or settle the market. The operator had not published its final incident report when the July 28 coverage appeared.

Bitcoin held above $77,000 following the Wall Street open as gold joined the broader crypto upswing, pushing precious metals to multi-month highs. The move underscores how strongly investors are linking digital assets to traditional macro drivers, particularly US rate expectations and the outlook for government debt financing.

Trading data cited by market commentary showed BTC cooling after briefly testing levels not seen since May 15, yet still up nearly 6% on the day. Gold tracked the risk-on momentum as well, rising to around $4,632 per ounce—its highest level since mid-May—with both assets also posting strong gains on a monthly view.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin consolidated above $77,000 after hitting its highest level since May 15, while gold reached a similar US-dollar strength milestone.
• Commentary from The Kobeissi Letter ties the cross-asset rally to inflation and US Treasury actions around debt buybacks.
• QCP Capital highlighted a divergence in how Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin reacted after a Treasury-related announcement, pointing to sensitivity to long-end rates and the dollar.
• Prediction markets moved toward higher probability for large upside: Polymarket put the odds of BTC reaching $90,000 before 2027 at 48%.
• Technical-focused participants still warned that Bitcoin may need to reclaim key trend levels before a stronger uptrend is confirmed.

Bitcoin and gold rally together above key levels

According to TradingView data referenced in the report, BTC/USD briefly topped levels last seen on May 15 before drifting lower within the session. Even with that cooling, Bitcoin remained firmly higher on the day, up by nearly 6% at the time of writing.

Gold’s performance mirrored the same macro impulse. At the time of writing, gold was quoted around $4,632 per ounce, up about 2.2% on the day and at multi-month highs. On a month-to-date basis, the cited data showed BTC/USD up roughly 13% and XAU/USD up about 16%, indicating the strength of the broader cross-asset trend rather than a one-off price spike.

Macro linkage: debt policy, inflation expectations, and long-end rates

The rally’s timing led market commentators to emphasize US fiscal and debt-management policy as a common driver. The Kobeissi Letter argued that the simultaneous strength in precious metals and crypto should not be viewed as surprising, framing it around inflation, deficit spending, and US Treasury policy. The commentary specifically pointed to record deficit spending and to the US Treasury Department’s pledge to at least double certain debt buyback operations to $4 billion.

The underlying logic is straightforward: when investors anticipate changes in the path of long-term rates, liquidity conditions, and the demand profile for government debt, alternative assets can reprice quickly—even if their fundamental narratives differ. That is precisely what investors saw in the near-synchronous move between Bitcoin and gold.

Divergence after the Treasury announcement raises questions

While the cross-asset alignment was a headline, QCP Capital’s market analysis drew attention to a more nuanced pattern. In its latest “Market Color,” QCP noted that the most visible cross-asset signal of the week was a divergence after the Treasury-related announcement: Treasuries initially rallied but then gave back much of the move, while BTC and gold did not retrace to the same extent.

“That does not establish a new liquidity or monetary regime, but it does highlight the sensitivity of alternative assets to changes in long-end rates and the dollar.”

QCP added that financial stress signals were not limited to the US, citing surging Japanese government bond yields following a rare joint currency intervention earlier in the month. Taken together, the message for traders is that Bitcoin’s sensitivity appears less about isolated equity-style momentum and more about the way global rate dynamics and currency conditions feed into perceived liquidity and risk pricing.

Prediction markets price in a $90,000 target—technicals remain cautious

As Bitcoin’s upside momentum pushed beyond 20% over two days, the probability of higher year-end targets began to look more achievable for some market participants. Polymarket data put the odds of BTC/USD hitting $90,000 before 2027 at 48% at the time of writing, with the report noting that the figure was up sharply compared with the start of the week.

Even with that rising confidence, not everyone was convinced that momentum would translate into a sustained technical break. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital stressed that Bitcoin still needs to reclaim its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) around $77,232. In his view, rejecting that level would keep the market in a broader downtrend structure characterized by lower highs.

“History suggests there’s still time for price to continue its Downtrend.”

Rekt Capital’s framing is important because it highlights a tension that often appears during macro-driven rallies: narrative strength can coexist with technical uncertainty. Investors may be willing to price upside quickly based on macro conditions, but technical traders typically look for specific confirmations before treating a move as durable.

For readers watching the next steps, the key question is whether Bitcoin can hold above the consolidation area near $77,000 while reclaiming trend resistance around the 50-week EMA. At the same time, the market will likely keep tracking developments that affect long-end rates and the US dollar, since recent cross-asset behavior suggests that changes in debt policy expectations can move both BTC and gold with little delay.