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Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Slides 3% Amid Fresh U.S. Export Control Concerns

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NVDA Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • NVDA closed down approximately 3% Friday at roughly $177.83, retreating from Thursday’s close of $183.34
  • New reports suggest Washington may implement stricter oversight requiring approval for most international AI chip exports
  • The chipmaker has reportedly paused H200 deliveries to China as it shifts TSMC manufacturing capacity to newer Rubin architecture
  • Fourth quarter results showed $68.13 billion in revenue — a 73.2% annual increase — surpassing Wall Street expectations
  • Wall Street analysts maintain bullish outlook with average price target of $273.64, supported by 47 Buy recommendations versus just 2 Hold ratings

NVIDIA (NVDA) experienced a roughly 3% decline Friday, hitting an intraday bottom at $176.82 before closing near $177.83. The previous session ended at $183.34. Trading volume reached approximately 187.4 million shares — running about 4% higher than typical daily activity.


NVDA Stock Card
NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

The downward momentum stemmed primarily from emerging reports regarding possible new U.S. export control measures. Washington officials have allegedly prepared regulations requiring government clearance for virtually all international shipments of cutting-edge AI processors.

These proposed rules would implement tiered approval processes depending on order volume. Bulk orders exceeding 200,000 chips might necessitate foreign capital commitments to U.S. data infrastructure or enhanced security protocols, based on reporting from Bloomberg and Reuters.

The Commerce Department stated it wasn’t reverting to the Biden administration’s “AI diffusion” strategy, instead highlighting recent Middle Eastern chip agreements as the template for future arrangements.

However, those Middle Eastern transactions weren’t without complications. Washington greenlit sales of up to 70,000 advanced processors to entities in the UAE and Saudi Arabia — but only following extended delays linked to investment negotiations and national security reviews.

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This precedent suggests potential bottlenecks if comparable vetting procedures become standard worldwide.

Chinese Market Complications Weigh on Sentiment

NVDA encountered additional headwinds from separate reports indicating suspended H200 processor deliveries to Chinese customers. This decision appears connected to reallocating TSMC production resources toward the upcoming Rubin generation rather than stemming from regulatory mandates.

Nevertheless, any curtailment of Chinese market access represents a short-term revenue challenge, prompting investor caution.

AMD (AMD) similarly retreated, declining roughly 3.52% during the same session. Both semiconductor giants have underperformed year-to-date as the AI sector momentum has moderated.

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Underlying Business Strength Remains Intact

The stock pullback occurred despite exceptionally robust earnings released just weeks prior. NVDA reported fourth quarter revenue of $68.13 billion, reflecting 73.2% year-over-year growth and exceeding the $65.56 billion consensus projection.

Earnings per share reached $1.62, topping the $1.54 Street estimate. Net profit margin stood at 55.60%, while return on equity achieved 97.37%.

Data center segment revenue set company records. In response, analysts have been upgrading price objectives, with Bank of America and Rosenblatt both establishing $300 targets. Deutsche Bank increased its forecast to $220.

Across 53 analysts, the consensus price objective stands at $273.64 — representing significant upside from current trading levels.

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CEO Jensen Huang recently noted that the company’s capital positions in OpenAI and Anthropic might be final investments before these firms pursue public offerings — indicating reduced future equity participation.

Institutional ownership remains robust. Norges Bank initiated a new holding valued at approximately $62.2 billion during Q4. J. Stern & Co. expanded its position by over 13,000%.

NVDA maintains a market capitalization of $4.32 trillion. The shares trade at a P/E ratio of 36.29 with a beta coefficient of 2.33.

The 50-day moving average registers at $186.02. The 200-day average sits at $183.87 — placing Friday’s closing price beneath both technical benchmarks.

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Crypto World

Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

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Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

Total value locked on decentralized lending protocol Aave dropped by nearly $8 billion over the weekend after hackers behind the $293 million Kelp DAO exploit borrowed funds on Aave, leaving roughly $195 million in “bad debt” on the protocol and triggering withdrawals.

Data from DeFiLlama shows that Aave’s TVL fell from about $26.4 billion to $18.6 billion by Sunday, losing the top spot as the largest DeFi protocol. 

Aave v3’s lending pools for USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC) are now at 100% utilization, meaning that more than $5.1 billion worth of stablecoins cannot be withdrawn until new liquidity arrives or borrows are repaid. 

$2,540 is available to be withdrawn from the $2.87 billion USDT pool on Aave v3 at the time of writing. Source: Aave

Aave’s TVL fall shows how rapidly risk from a single security incident can spread throughout the broader, interconnected DeFi lending market, potentially leading to a severe liquidity crisis.

The incident began on Saturday when hackers stole 116,500 Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (rsETH) tokens worth about $293 million from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered bridge and used them as collateral on Aave v3 to borrow wrapped Ether (wETH).

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Crypto analytics platform Lookonchain said the move created about $195 million in “bad debt” on Aave, which contributed to the Aave (AAVE) token tanking nearly 20% from $112 on Saturday at 6:00 pm UTC to $89.5 about 25 hours later. 

Lookonchain noted that some of the largest crypto whales to withdraw funds from Aave were the MEXC crypto exchange and Abraxas Capital at $431 million and $392 million, respectively.

Source: Grvt

Several crypto networks and protocols tied to rsETH or the LayerZero bridge have paused use of the bridge until the problem is resolved, including DeFi platform Curve Finance, stablecoin issuer Ethena and BitGo’s Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC).

Aave has frozen several rsETH, wETH markets

Shortly after the Kelp DAO exploit, Aave said it froze the rsETH markets on both Aave v3 and v4 to prevent any suspicious borrowing and later stated that rsETH on Ethereum mainnet remains fully backed by underlying assets.

WETH reserves also remain frozen on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle and Linea, Aave said.

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This incident marks the first significant stress test of Aave’s “Umbrella” security model, which was introduced in June 2025 to provide automated protection against protocol bad debt while enabling users to earn rewards.

Related: Aave DAO backs V4 mainnet plan in near-unanimous vote

Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada found that Aave avoided bad debt in its v3 market by using overcollateralization, automated liquidations and other strategies that shifted risk to borrowers.

In comments to Cointelegraph, Aave defended its liquidation-based model, framing it as a core safety mechanism that protects lenders while limiting downside for borrowers.

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It comes as Aave parted ways with its longest-standing DeFi risk service provider, Chaos Labs, on April 6, following disagreements over the direction of Aave v4 and budget constraints.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?