Crypto World
Ondo Finance (ONDO) Price Prediction 2026, 2027-2030
ONDO
Ondo Finance$0.3757
24h Volume$422.79M
Market Cap$1.83B
24h Low/High$0.3511 / $0.4289
Last updated: June 04, 2026 07:12 · Live price: $0.3757 (-10.88% 24h)
Ondo Finance Price Statistics
| Ondo Finance Price | $0.3757 |
|---|---|
| Price Change 24H | -10.88% |
| Price Change 7D | +5.32% |
| Price Change 30D | +17.49% |
| Market Cap | $1.83B (#46) |
| 24H Volume | $422.79M |
| 50-Day SMA | $0.3413 |
| 200-Day SMA | $0.3417 |
| 14-Day RSI | 44.2 |
| Technical Signal | bearish, neutral |
Ondo Finance trades between $0.43 and $0.45 in late May 2026, market cap around $2.19 billion (#44), roughly 79 percent below its $2.14 high from early 2024. The setup is unusual because most RWA platforms remain speculative. Ondo has shipped product that is processing real institutional volume. Tokenized US Treasury market on Ethereum hit $8 billion ATH in May 2026 with Ondo’s products among the leading contributors. OUSG (Ondo Short-Term US Government Treasuries) holds $680 million in TVL, with BlackRock’s BUIDL fund aongside allocations to Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree, Fidelity, and Wellington/FundBridge vehicles. Ondo Global Markets (the tokenized stocks and ETFs platform) crossed $1.5 billion in TVL by May 2026. The company acquired Oasis Pro in late 2025, securing SEC licenses that removed key US regulatory barriers for institutional products. EU regulatory approval came simultaneously, allowing tokenized stocks and ETFs across 30 European markets. ONDO is deployed across Ethereum, Solana, Sui, and the XRP Ledger with continued multi-chain expansion. The platform integrates with Ripple, J.P. Morgan, and other major institutional finance firms. On May 21, 2026, ONDO surged 10 percent on SEC rumor that tokenized stock trading might be permitted with TVL surpassing $1.5 billion. MEXC launched a $1 million Ondo Stocks Carnival the same day featuring zero-fee trading. The honest read is Ondo represents the cleanest pure-play exposure to institutional RWA tokenization in 2026, with the real advantage being that the platform actually has institutional products processing real volume rather than speculative roadmap promises. The real challenges are also concrete: ONDO token has limited direct value capture from platform operations, 4.87 billion circulating of 10 billion max supply creates ongoing unlock pressure, competition from BlackRock’s BUIDL, Franklin Templeton’s BENJI, and emerging institutional tokenization initiatives is intensifying, and broader RWA market growth could happen with or without ONDO token appreciation. This piece walks through what the data actually says, the bull case ($1.50-$4 by 2030), the base case ($0.60-$1.20), and the bear case ($0.20-$0.50), with the variables that determine which one plays out.
Short-Term Ondo Finance Price Targets
| 2026 full-year range | $0.35 – $0.80 |
|---|---|
| 2026 year-end (base) | $0.40 – $0.65 |
| 2026 year-end (bull) | $0.80 – $1.40 |
| 2026 year-end (bear) | $0.30 – $0.42 |
Long-Term Ondo Finance Price Prediction (2026-2030)
| Year | Bear case | Base case | Bull case |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.30 – $0.42 | $0.40 – $0.65 | $0.80 – $1.40 |
| 2027 | $0.25 – $0.40 | $0.50 – $0.80 | $1.20 – $2.20 |
| 2028 | $0.22 – $0.45 | $0.55 – $0.95 | $1.50 – $3.00 |
| 2029 | $0.20 – $0.48 | $0.60 – $1.10 | $1.50 – $3.60 |
| 2030 | $0.20 – $0.50 | $0.60 – $1.20 | $1.50 – $4.00 |
The 2030 range across scenarios is wide ($0.20 to $4.00, a 20x spread). That width reflects the core disconnect: Ondo-the-platform is clearly growing and institutional, while ONDO-the-token has limited direct value capture and ongoing supply pressure. Which scenario wins depends largely on whether governance ships a value-capture mechanism (fee distribution, staking, or buyback) while the platform keeps scaling.
Summary
Ondo Finance is two businesses in one company. The first business is tokenized US Treasuries through OUSG and USDY ($680M and growing). The second is tokenized stocks and ETFs through Ondo Global Markets ($1.5B+ TVL with EU approval across 30 markets and SEC licenses via Oasis Pro acquisition). Both businesses are real, both are growing, and both compete against institutional incumbents (BlackRock BUIDL, Franklin Templeton BENJI) with bigger balance sheets and longer institutional relationships. The bull case for 2030 ($1.50-$4) requires Ondo Global Markets to scale to $10-30 billion TVL, OUSG to grow to $5-10 billion, ONDO token value capture to materialize through governance fees or revenue distribution, regulatory clarity supporting tokenized stocks at federal level, and competitive moat maintenance against BlackRock and Franklin Templeton. The base case ($0.60-$1.20) assumes moderate growth across both business lines, ONDO maintains its position as one of multiple RWA tokenization leaders, governance value remains limited, and competitive dynamics stay balanced. The bear case ($0.20- $0.50) assumes BlackRock and traditional institutional incumbents capture the bulk of institutional tokenization volume, ONDO governance token fails to capture meaningful value despite platform growth, token unlocks continue creating supply pressure, and the broader RWA narrative cools.
Why Ondo is at $0.43 right now
The current Ondo price reflects multiple competing forces unique to RWA tokenization platforms.
The starting point: ONDO peaked at $2.14 in early 2024 during peak RWA narrative momentum. The decline to current $0.43 reflects multiple specific pressures: token unlock pressure as scheduled distributions continue, broader altcoin weakness through 2024-2026, and the disconnect between platform-level growth and token value capture that affects most governance tokens without direct fee accrual mechanisms.
The platform fundamentals are concrete and growing. OUSG holds $680 million across tokenized US Treasury products built on top of institutional money market fund vehicles (BlackRock BUIDL, Franklin Templeton BENJI, WisdomTree, Fidelity, Wellington/FundBridge). The 30-day APY of approximately 3.19 percent reflects actual short-term Treasury yields. The product structure is genuinely institutionalgrade: holders are limited to US Qualified Purchasers, the underlying assets are real-world securities, and the infrastructure is built for compliance with traditional finance regulatory frameworks.
USDY (Ondo’s dollar-yielding stablecoin alternative) provides yield-bearing dollar exposure without requiring qualified purchaser status. The product is positioned for retail and non-US institutional accessibility. Combining OUSG (institutional-restricted, higher-yield) and USDY (broader-access, loweryield) provides differentiated product set.
Ondo Global Markets is the tokenized stocks and ETFs platform. TVL crossed $1.5 billion by May 2026 with EU regulatory approval allowing the platform to offer tokenized stocks across 30 European markets. The platform allows institutional and retail users to trade tokenized representations of US stocks and ETFs with on-chain settlement.
The Oasis Pro acquisition in late 2025 secured SEC licenses for institutional products. The acquisition removed key US regulatory barriers and enables broader institutional access to Ondo’s tokenized products. The licenses cover alternative trading system operations and broker-dealer activities required for institutional tokenization.
The institutional integrations are real. Ondo integrates with Ripple (covered in detail in your XRP piece – tokenized US Treasury pilot announced February 2026 by J.P. Morgan, Mastercard, and Ondo). J.P. Morgan’s involvement extends to multiple settlement and tokenization initiatives. The integrations provide validation that institutional finance views Ondo as legitimate infrastructure partner.
The May 21, 2026 catalyst pushed ONDO 10 percent higher on SEC rumor regarding tokenized stock trading permissions. The actual SEC announcement remained pending but the rumor showed market sensitivity to regulatory developments affecting Ondo’s core business. MEXC’s $1 million Ondo Stocks Carnival the same day promoting zero-fee trading provided additional exposure and accessibility.
The competitive context matters. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund grew to over $2.5 billion. Franklin Templeton’s BENJI continued expanding. The tokenized US Treasury market on Ethereum hit $8 billion ATH in May 2026 with multiple participants. Ondo competes against well-capitalized traditional finance incumbents but with the advantage of being crypto-native and having stronger DeFi integration.
The token economics are the structural challenge. ONDO is a governance token without direct fee accrual mechanism. Platform revenue from OUSG management fees (0.15 percent), USDY yields, and Ondo Global Markets transaction fees flows to the underlying business rather than the ONDO token directly. Governance value depends on DAO decisions about future value capture mechanisms, which haven’t been clearly set.
Supply dynamics create ongoing pressure. 4.87 billion ONDO are in circulation out of 10 billion max supply. Continued scheduled unlocks add to circulating supply throughout 2026-2027 period. The January 2025 unlock of 1.94 billion tokens created significant supply expansion that the market is still absorbing.
At $0.43, the market is rewarding Ondo’s platform but penalizing the token. The platform keeps shipping product (OUSG, USDY, Mastercard, BlackRock integration) but ONDO itself has no direct fee accrual. The supply keeps expanding through unlocks. Governance tokens for traditional-finance-style infrastructure businesses are a category the market hasn’t decided how to price.
The bull case: $1.50-$4 by 2030
The bull case requires multiple variables resolving favorably and assumes ONDO captures meaningful value from platform growth.
Ondo Global Markets scaling to $10-30 billion TVL. The platform reached $1.5 billion by May 2026 with growth trajectory. Bull case requires continued scaling through expanded asset coverage (more stocks, more ETFs, additional asset classes), geographic expansion beyond current EU 30-market approval, and institutional adoption from major financial institutions seeking on-chain access to tokenized securities. The 7-10x scaling from current TVL is plausible given the broader RWA market trajectory ($8 billion tokenized Treasury market on Ethereum alone, growing).
OUSG and USDY scaling to $5-10 billion combined. The current $680 million OUSG and additional USDY represent meaningful but small share of the $8 billion tokenized Treasury market. Bull case requires Ondo capturing larger market share through superior product structure, institutional relationships, and regulatory positioning. The institutional preference for tokenization-as-service (which Ondo provides) versus building proprietary tokenization could drive market share gains.
ONDO token value capture mechanism deployment. The bull case requires the DAO or company to set direct value capture from platform revenue. Possible mechanisms: governance-driven fee distribution to ONDO holders, staking yields backed by platform revenue, buyback-and-burn programs funded by platform fees, or other mechanisms creating direct economic linkage between platform growth and token value. The mechanism doesn’t currently exist meaningfully but is a possible future development.
Regulatory clarity supporting tokenized stocks at federal level. The SEC rumor that produced May 21 catalyst would need to crystallize into actual approval for tokenized stock trading in US markets. Combined with CLARITY Act framework providing broader crypto regulatory clarity, the regulatory environment could support Ondo Global Markets US expansion. US institutional access would dramatically expand the platform’s TVL potential.
Competitive moat maintenance against BlackRock and Franklin Templeton. The bull case requires Ondo to defend its position as institutional crypto-native partner rather than getting displaced by traditional finance incumbents building proprietary tokenization. Differentiation: Ondo’s DeFi integration capabilities, multi-chain deployment (Ethereum, Solana, Sui, XRPL), and developer ecosystem create advantages BlackRock’s BUIDL doesn’t match in pure-crypto-native contexts.
The Trump administration RWA policy support. The current administration has signaled pro-tokenization policies. The CLARITY Act provides regulatory framework. Specific RWA-friendly policies (covered in your CLARITY Act and Strategic Bitcoin Reserve pieces) create supportive environment for Ondo’s institutional positioning.
The crypto cycle supporting altcoin appreciation. Bitcoin reaching new highs sustained above $150K. Altcoin rotation producing institutional capital flow to mid-cap altcoins. Broader crypto market dynamics support ONDO appreciation alongside platform-level growth.
Targets if bull case conditions materialize: – 2026 year-end: $0.80-$1.40 – 2027 year-end: $1.20-$2.20 – 2028 year-end: $1.50-$3.00 – 2029 year-end: $1.50-$3.60 – 2030 year-end: $1.50-$4.00
The upper end ($4) requires sustained execution across all variables including ONDO governance token capturing meaningful value from $30+ billion platform TVL. The lower bull case ($1.50) is achievable through platform scaling combined with moderate value capture mechanism deployment.
The base case: $0.60-$1.20 by 2030
The base case assumes meaningful platform growth with limited token value capture mechanism deployment.
Ondo Global Markets scaling to $4-8 billion TVL. Growth continues from current $1.5 billion levels through expanded asset coverage and geographic reach but at slower pace than bull case. The platform captures specific institutional niches without dominating the broader tokenized securities market.
OUSG and USDY scaling to $2-4 billion combined. Continued growth from current levels but with intensifying competitive pressure from BlackRock BUIDL, Franklin Templeton BENJI, and emerging institutional tokenization initiatives. Ondo maintains its position as significant but not dominant tokenized Treasury platform.
ONDO token value capture remains limited. The DAO discusses but doesn’t deploy transformative value capture mechanisms. Governance token continues to derive value primarily from speculative trading rather than direct economic linkage to platform revenue. Some moderate developments (staking introduction, limited governance-driven distributions) may occur.
Regulatory developments produce mixed outcomes. EU framework continues supporting platform expansion. US regulatory developments are positive but slow. CLARITY Act deployment supports general crypto adoption but specific tokenized stock SEC approval remains delayed.
Competitive dynamics stabilize. BlackRock BUIDL and Franklin Templeton BENJI capture significant institutional tokenization volume but Ondo maintains its niche. Crypto-native and DeFi-integrated positioning provides defensible competitive position without dominating.
Supply dynamics play out predictably. Continued scheduled unlocks add to circulating supply through 2027-2028 period before unlock pressure compresses. Token economics improve gradually but don’t transform.
The broader crypto cycle provides moderate support. Bitcoin reaches $130-160K range with altcoin rotation producing periodic Ondo rallies. ONDO participates in altcoin cycles without leading.
Targets in base case: – 2026 year-end: $0.40-$0.65 – 2027 year-end: $0.50-$0.80 – 2028 year-end: $0.55- $0.95 – 2029 year-end: $0.60-$1.10 – 2030 year-end: $0.60-$1.20
The base case represents moderate appreciation from current $0.43 levels but stays well below the $2.14 all-time high. The support comes from continued platform growth and gradual institutional adoption. The structural pressure comes from limited token value capture and ongoing supply expansion.
The bear case: $0.20-$0.50 by 2030
The bear case requires adverse outcomes across multiple variables.
Traditional finance incumbents dominate institutional tokenization. BlackRock BUIDL scales to $20+ billion. Franklin Templeton BENJI captures growing institutional share. Major banks (JPMorgan Onyx, State Street, BNY Mellon) build proprietary tokenization platforms. Ondo’s institutional positioning erodes to specialty product rather than primary platform.
Ondo Global Markets growth stalls. EU expansion produces limited additional TVL beyond current levels. US regulatory approval for tokenized stocks remains delayed indefinitely. The platform captures specific niches without scaling to bull-case-required levels.
ONDO token value capture fails to develop. The DAO doesn’t deploy meaningful value capture mechanisms. Governance token continues to derive value from speculation rather than fundamental economics. Token holders increasingly question the value proposition relative to direct holding of underlying assets (USDY for yield, traditional ETFs for stock exposure).
Token unlocks overwhelm demand. Continued scheduled distributions create persistent sell-pressure that fundamental demand can’t absorb. Combined with broader altcoin weakness, supply expansion pushes price below current $0.43 levels sustainably.
Regulatory deterioration. CLARITY Act stalls or fails to provide expected framework. Post-2029 administration reverses RWA-friendly policies. International regulatory pressure increases on tokenization platforms. SEC takes adverse action under shifting priorities.
Competitive displacement by emerging RWA platforms. New entrants with stronger institutional relationships, better technology, or more favorable tokenomics capture market share Ondo was positioning to serve. Securitize, Centrifuge, or new platforms grow faster than Ondo.
The RWA narrative cools. Broader institutional adoption develops slower than expected. The “tokenization will eat traditional finance” narrative that supported RWA valuations doesn’t deliver on aggressive timelines. Institutional capital flows to other crypto themes.
The macro deterioration. Higher US interest rates reduce relative attractiveness of tokenized Treasury yields. Broader altcoin weakness during sustained risk-off periods. Crypto market weakness affects all altcoins including RWA-themed assets.
Targets in bear case: – 2026 year-end: $0.30-$0.42 – 2027 year-end: $0.25-$0.40 – 2028 year-end: $0.22- $0.45 – 2029 year-end: $0.20-$0.48 – 2030 year-end: $0.20-$0.50
The bear case represents 5-55 percent downside from current $0.43 levels. Even in bear scenarios, ONDO retains some value given platform fundamentals and continued operation. Complete failure scenarios would require platform-level operational issues combined with broader market collapse.
The five variables that determine the outcome
Five variables that track which scenario is materializing.
Variable 1: Ondo Global Markets TVL trajectory. The single most important platform variable. Currently $1.5 billion. Bull case requires $10-30 billion by 2030. Monitor: monthly TVL reporting, asset coverage expansion (additional stocks, ETFs, asset classes), geographic expansion (EU markets activation, additional jurisdictions), institutional adoption announcements, and competitive positioning versus traditional finance incumbents.
Variable 2: OUSG and USDY market share in tokenized Treasury market. Currently $680 million OUSG in $8 billion total tokenized Treasury market (8.5 percent share). Bull case requires significant share expansion. Monitor: monthly OUSG and USDY market cap, total tokenized Treasury market growth, BlackRock BUIDL trajectory, Franklin Templeton BENJI growth, competitive dynamics among institutional tokenization providers.
Variable 3: ONDO token value capture mechanism deployment. Currently limited. Monitor: DAO governance proposals for fee distribution, staking mechanisms introduction, buyback-and-burn programs deployment, revenue distribution discussions, and any direct economic linkage between platform growth and ONDO token value.
Variable 4: Regulatory developments affecting institutional tokenization. SEC tokenized stock rulings, CLARITY Act deployment specifics, EU MiCA framework operational impact, additional jurisdictional approvals beyond current EU 30-market access. Monitor: SEC announcements, CLARITY Act deployment milestones, Ondo regulatory filings and approvals, competitor regulatory developments.
Variable 5: Competitive positioning versus BlackRock BUIDL and Franklin Templeton BENJI. The largest institutional incumbents in tokenization. Monitor: BlackRock BUIDL TVL trajectory, Franklin Templeton BENJI growth, JPMorgan Onyx and other bank tokenization initiatives, emerging cryptonative competitors (Securitize, Centrifuge, etc.).
The variables interact significantly. Platform TVL growth supports token interest. Market share gains create defensible competitive position. Token value capture mechanism deployment transforms governance token value proposition. Regulatory developments enable institutional adoption. Competitive positioning determines which institutional capital flows to Ondo versus competitors. All variables compound in producing the eventual price outcome.
What this means for ONDO holders and traders
What this means for ONDO holders and traders For current ONDO holders, the practical implication is the asset’s setup is solid at the platform level but uncertain at the token level. Platform fundamentals (OUSG, USDY, Ondo Global Markets growth, regulatory wins) support the broader investment thesis. Token economics (limited direct value capture, supply expansion) create headwinds that platform growth alone may not overcome.
For potential ONDO buyers, current $0.43 reflects substantial discount from all-time high combined with developing institutional adoption. The risk-reward depends on assessment of platform growth probability (high given current trajectory), value capture mechanism deployment probability (uncertain), and competitive dynamics versus traditional finance incumbents (Ondo well-positioned but facing strong competition). Entry at current levels has asymmetric upside if value capture develops, modest upside if platform grows but value capture remains limited.
For traders, ONDO has showed catalyst sensitivity around: regulatory announcements (SEC tokenized stock rumors produce 10+ percent moves), TVL milestones, institutional partnership announcements, and broader RWA narrative momentum. Trading the catalysts requires monitoring regulatory developments, partnership announcements, and TVL reporting alongside broader crypto market dynamics.
For institutional investors evaluating ONDO allocation, the platform offers exposure to institutional RWA tokenization through crypto-native infrastructure. The investment case depends on belief in RWA tokenization scaling combined with confidence that crypto-native platforms (versus traditional finance incumbents) capture meaningful share. ETF accessibility could develop following set crypto ETF patterns but is not yet available.
For developers and ecosystem participants, Ondo provides institutional-grade tokenization infrastructure that’s accessible across multiple chains (Ethereum, Solana, Sui, XRPL). The multi-chain deployment creates opportunities for DeFi protocol integration of tokenized RWA assets. The technical infrastructure supports building applications that combine traditional finance assets with DeFi composability.
For traditional finance professionals exploring tokenization, Ondo represents a tested operational alternative to building proprietary tokenization platforms. The platform’s regulatory positioning, institutional partnerships, and technical infrastructure provide reference deployment. Whether to build with Ondo versus building proprietary versus using BlackRock BUIDL or Franklin Templeton BENJI depends on specific use case requirements.
Connection to broader market dynamics
Ondo’s setup connects to several broader dynamics covered in your existing crypto.news editorial work.
The XRP institutional tokenization piece directly connects through the J.P. Morgan, Mastercard, and Ondo XRP Ledger tokenized US Treasury pilot announced February 2026. The pilot shows Ondo’s integration capabilities across major institutional infrastructure providers. The XRPL deployment provides multichain expansion that competing platforms haven’t matched at similar scale.
The CLARITY Act framework (covered in the CLARITY Act series) provides regulatory pathway for tokenized stocks and broader institutional crypto adoption. The Act’s deployment supports Ondo Global Markets US expansion and removes structural barriers for institutional participation.
The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve piece (covered in your Strategic Bitcoin Reserve analysis) creates broader pro-crypto policy environment that benefits institutional tokenization infrastructure. The administration’s crypto-friendly approach supports Ondo’s regulatory positioning.
The WLFI RWA platform comparison (covered in WLFI price prediction) provides direct competitive context. Both Ondo and WLFI’s RWA platform target institutional tokenization but with different capital bases (institutional traditional finance for Ondo, politically-aligned capital for WLFI). The two platforms occupy adjacent positioning rather than direct competition.
The Hyperliquid HYPE buyback comparison provides analytical contrast for value capture mechanisms. HYPE has aggressive direct value capture (99 percent fee-to-buyback). ONDO has indirect value capture dependent on future governance decisions. The contrast highlights why HYPE has produced stronger token appreciation despite less institutional positioning than Ondo.
The TON Pay 2.0 comparison provides framework for institutional infrastructure adoption. TON has Telegram distribution advantage. Ondo has institutional finance partnership advantage. Both target consumer/institutional adoption pathways but through different mechanisms.
The honest bottom line
Ondo is the pure-play institutional RWA tokenization investment. Not the only RWA token, but the only one where BlackRock’s BUIDL fund sits inside an Ondo product, where Mastercard is using Ondo infrastructure to settle stablecoin transactions, and where the team has been shipping institutional-grade product since before “RWA” was a category most analysts knew how to spell.
The platform fundamentals are concrete: $680 million OUSG holding BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and other institutional money market vehicles, $1.5 billion Ondo Global Markets TVL, EU regulatory approval across 30 markets, SEC licenses via Oasis Pro acquisition, J.P. Morgan and Ripple integrations, multichain deployment across Ethereum, Solana, Sui, and XRP Ledger. These are not speculative roadmap items. They are operational businesses processing real volume.
The institutional partnerships validate the positioning. BlackRock’s BUIDL backing OUSG. Franklin Templeton products in OUSG portfolio. Fidelity allocations. Wellington/FundBridge vehicles. JP Morgan tokenized Treasury pilots. Ripple integration. The institutional finance establishment treats Ondo as legitimate tokenization infrastructure partner.
The regulatory wins are substantial. EU 30-market approval for tokenized stocks and ETFs. SEC licenses via Oasis Pro. Operating across multiple jurisdictions with appropriate compliance. The regulatory positioning provides barriers to entry that competing platforms haven’t matched.
The real challenges are equally concrete. ONDO governance token lacks direct value capture mechanism from platform operations. Platform revenue flows to underlying business rather than token holders. 4.87 billion circulating of 10 billion max supply creates ongoing unlock pressure. Competition from BlackRock BUIDL and Franklin Templeton BENJI is intensifying with their stronger balance sheets and longer institutional relationships.
The 2030 range across scenarios is wide: $0.20 to $4.00, representing 20x range. The wide range reflects the disconnect between platform-level growth and token-level value capture. If platform grows substantially and value capture develops, bull case materializes. If platform grows without value capture or competition intensifies, base or bear case dominates.
For holders, the variables that matter are the ones connecting platform success to token value: governance proposals for fee distribution or buyback mechanisms (most important), Ondo Global Markets TVL trajectory (validates platform thesis), regulatory developments (enables expansion), and competitive positioning (determines market share). Platform fundamentals can be excellent while token value stays constrained without value capture mechanism deployment.
For buyers, the question is whether you’re buying ONDO as a platform-growth bet (where moderate appreciation is achievable through platform success) or as a value-capture-deployment bet (where transformative appreciation requires governance mechanism evolution). Different theses have different time horizons and risk profiles.
For the broader market, Ondo represents the test case for whether crypto-native platforms can compete with traditional finance incumbents in institutional tokenization. If Ondo successfully scales against BlackRock BUIDL and Franklin Templeton BENJI, the success shows that crypto-native infrastructure can capture institutional finance market share rather than getting displaced. The outcome affects how the broader RWA category develops.
For 2026, expect ONDO in a $0.35 to $0.80 range with significant catalysts around SEC tokenized stock approval timing, Ondo Global Markets TVL milestones, governance proposals for value capture, and broader RWA market growth. The floor near $0.35 reflects current platform positioning. The upside ($0.65 to $0.80) needs catalysts to land.
For 2027-2030, the question is whether governance evolves to capture platform value. If Ondo’s DAO ships fee distribution or buyback mechanisms while the platform keeps scaling, ONDO trades $1.50 to $4. Without value capture, even strong platform growth produces $0.60 to $1.20. Adverse competitive or regulatory dynamics produce $0.20 to $0.50.
ONDO is the trade for someone who thinks the next leg of crypto adoption comes through traditional finance tokenization rather than memecoin rotation or DeFi innovation. The platform thesis is sound and shipping. The token value capture question is what determines whether holding ONDO produces returns proportional to the platform’s success.
For analysts, the cleanest framework is: separate Ondo-the-platform (clearly growing, clearly institutional) from ONDO-the-token (limited direct value capture, ongoing supply pressure, dependent on future governance decisions). Conflating them produces analytical mess. The platform’s success doesn’t automatically translate to token appreciation without the governance evolution that enables value capture.
What everyone should watch: the next major DAO proposal addressing ONDO value capture from platform revenue. That proposal’s outcome and deployment will largely determine whether bull case or base case becomes the operative trajectory through 2030.
Ondo Finance Technical Analysis
As of June 04, 2026 07:12, Ondo Finance (ONDO) trades at $0.3757. The 50-day SMA ($0.3413) sits below the 200-day SMA ($0.3417), and the 14-day RSI of 44.2 reads as neutral. The combined short-term technical signal is bearish, neutral. Based on realized daily volatility of ~7.81%, the model projects the following short-term ranges:
Ondo Finance Short-Term Projection
| Horizon | Low | Average | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | $0.3473 | $0.3766 | $0.4060 |
| This week | $0.3041 | $0.3817 | $0.4594 |
| Next week | $0.2779 | $0.3877 | $0.4975 |
| Next month | $0.2407 | $0.4015 | $0.5622 |
Short-term ranges are statistical projections from live price and realized volatility, refreshed continuously. They are not guarantees.
Ondo Finance Price Prediction FAQ
What is Ondo Finance’s price prediction today?
Based on live price and current volatility, Ondo Finance (ONDO) is projected to trade between $0.3473 and $0.4060 today, with an average around $0.3766. The current technical signal is bearish, neutral.
What is Ondo Finance’s price prediction for tomorrow?
Tomorrow, Ondo Finance is expected to stay near today’s range of $0.3473–$0.4060, barring a major catalyst. The live model refreshes this estimate continuously from market data.
What is the Ondo Finance price prediction for this week?
For this week, the model projects Ondo Finance between $0.3041 and $0.4594 (average ~$0.3817), based on a realized daily volatility of about 7.81%.
What will the price of Ondo Finance be next month?
Over the next month, Ondo Finance is projected in a $0.2407–$0.5622 range (average ~$0.4015). Short-term ranges widen with the time horizon as uncertainty grows.
What is Ondo Finance and how does it differ from other RWA platforms?
Ondo Finance is a tokenization platform that brings real-world assets like US Treasuries, stocks, and ETFs onto blockchain through institutional-grade infrastructure. Key products include OUSG (tokenized US Treasuries with $680M TVL), USDY (yield-bearing dollar alternative), and Ondo Global Markets (tokenized stocks/ETFs with $1.5B TVL). Ondo differs from competitors through: SEC licenses via Oasis Pro acquisition, EU regulatory approval across 30 markets, BlackRock BUIDL backing for OUSG, multichain deployment (Ethereum, Solana, Sui, XRP Ledger), and integration with J.P. Morgan and Ripple. Differs from BlackRock BUIDL by being crypto-native; from Securitize by having stronger DeFi integration.
Can Ondo reach $4 by 2030?
$4 is at the upper end of the bull case range ($1.50-$4 by 2030). Required conditions: Ondo Global Markets scaling to $10-30 billion TVL, OUSG and USDY combined reaching $5-10 billion, ONDO governance token deploying meaningful value capture mechanism, federal regulatory clarity for tokenized stocks, competitive moat maintenance against BlackRock and Franklin Templeton, and broader crypto cycle supporting altcoin appreciation. The base case for 2030 is $0.60-$1.20.
What is OUSG and how does it work?
OUSG (Ondo Short-Term US Government Treasuries) is a tokenized fund providing on-chain exposure to US Treasuries by investing in institutional money market funds. Portfolio primarily holds BlackRock’s BUIDL fund alongside allocations to Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree, Fidelity, and Wellington/ FundBridge vehicles. Current TVL approximately $680 million. NAV around $115. 30-day APY approximately 3.19 percent. Eligible investors limited to US Qualified Purchasers. Management fee 0.15 percent. Performance fee 0 percent. Inception January 26, 2023.
How does Ondo Global Markets work?
Ondo Global Markets is the tokenized stocks and ETFs platform that received EU regulatory approval allowing trading across 30 European markets. Platform TVL crossed $1.5 billion by May 2026. Allows institutional and retail users to trade tokenized representations of US stocks and ETFs with on-chain settlement. The Oasis Pro acquisition secured SEC licenses removing US regulatory barriers for institutional products. Continued geographic expansion and asset coverage growth represent key bull case variables.
What is the ONDO token’s relationship to platform revenue?
ONDO is currently a governance token without direct fee accrual mechanism. Platform revenue from OUSG management fees (0.15 percent), USDY yields, and Ondo Global Markets transaction fees flows to the underlying business rather than ONDO token directly. Governance value depends on DAO decisions about future value capture mechanisms which haven’t been clearly set. The token’s eventual price appreciation depends substantially on whether governance mechanism evolution creates direct economic linkage between platform growth and token value.
How does Ondo compete against BlackRock BUIDL?
BlackRock BUIDL is the largest tokenized Treasury fund ($2.5+ billion TVL). Ondo competes through: crypto-native infrastructure versus BlackRock’s traditional finance positioning, multi-chain deployment across Ethereum/Solana/Sui/XRPL versus BlackRock’s Ethereum-only initial deployment, stronger DeFi integration capabilities, OUSG product structure (which actually holds BUIDL among other vehicles, making them complementary rather than purely competitive). The competitive dynamic includes both competition (for direct institutional clients) and collaboration (OUSG uses BUIDL as portfolio holding).
What are the main risks to Ondo?
Six primary risks. First, traditional finance incumbents (BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, major banks) dominate institutional tokenization at Ondo’s expense. Second, ONDO governance token fails to develop meaningful value capture mechanism from platform revenue. Third, ongoing token unlocks create persistent sell-pressure. Fourth, regulatory deterioration affecting tokenized stocks specifically (SEC delays, EU framework changes). Fifth, Ondo Global Markets growth stalls below required levels. Sixth, broader RWA narrative cools as institutional adoption develops slower than expected.
Should I buy Ondo given the institutional partnerships?
This piece does not provide investment advice. Current $0.43 reflects substantial discount from all-time high combined with strong platform fundamentals and uncertain token value capture. The risk-reward depends on assessment of platform growth probability (high given current trajectory), value capture mechanism deployment probability (uncertain), competitive dynamics versus traditional finance (Ondo well-positioned but facing strong competition), and broader RWA market growth. Position sizing should reflect that platform success and token appreciation may follow different timelines. The five-variables framework provides objective monitoring signals.
How we forecast Ondo Finance price
Our ONDO forecasts combine platform fundamentals (OUSG and USDY TVL, Ondo Global Markets TVL, institutional partnerships, regulatory approvals) with token-level dynamics (supply schedule and unlocks, governance value-capture status) and broader crypto-cycle context. Rather than a single number, we model bear, base, and bull scenarios tied to five trackable variables, and update the figures as new data lands. Forecasts are scenario-based and inherently uncertain.
This article is for informational purposes and does not make up financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and price predictions are inherently speculative. The figures and analysis described reflect data available as of late May 2026. Always do your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.
Latest Ondo News
Read more – Nathan Allman’s sudden death leaves Ondo Finance at a turning point
Ondo Finance founder Nathan Allman dies unexpectedly, with Ian De Bode taking over as CEO while the RWA firm says its mission remains unchanged.
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Ondo Finance’s native token $ONDO has broken above $0.46 and is trading near $0.466 with a 24 hour gain above 15 percent, according to data from Gate. Spot market shows ONDO (ONDO) testing the $0.46 level and printing around $0.466…
Read more – Ondo price confirms bull flag breakout, eyes upside to $0.55 as key metrics surge
Ondo price extended its recovery this week after confirming a bullish continuation setup on the daily chart, with rising demand for tokenized real-world assets and strong platform growth metrics reinforcing the bullish outlook. According to data from crypto.news, Ondo (ONDO)…
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Read more – Ondo price pauses after rally to yearly highs, bullish setup keeps upside hopes alive
Ondo price cooled slightly on Monday after surging to its highest level of the year, though the broader technical structure still points to growing bullish momentum across the tokenized real-world asset sector. According to data from crypto.news, Ondo (ONDO) price…
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Apex Group is guiding the fund administration for a tokenized real estate fund whose shares are issued on Goldman Sachs’ Digital Asset Platform (GS DAP). The collaboration brings together Goldman Sachs, digital asset exchange Archax, real estate manager LRC Group and interoperability provider Ownera, according to Apex.
“Tokenization at institutional scale depends on trusted, regulated infrastructure,” said Agnes Mazurek, Apex Group’s global head of digital assets, underscoring the growing demand from fund managers and investors for blockchain-native solutions that fit existing governance and oversight frameworks. The effort signals a broader industry push by banks, fund administrators and regulated digital-asset firms to bring real-world asset funds onto the blockchain while preserving familiar investor servicing and regulatory guardrails.
Tokenized units issued via GS DAP
The fund’s shares are issued as digital tokens on Goldman Sachs’ Digital Asset Platform (GS DAP), a blockchain-based framework designed to support issuance, settlement, custody and transfer of digital assets. GS DAP, which debuted in 2022, operates atop the Canton Network and uses Digital Asset’s smart contract language DAML to enable private, permissioned flows of data and value.
“Issuing blockchain-native fund units on GS DAP enables investment in real estate assets with precision while unlocking more seamless transferability in the future,” said Mathew McDermott, Goldman Sachs’ global head of digital assets and a Digital Asset board member. The arrangement positions tokenized real estate within a regulated structure, aiming to streamline ownership records and settlement processes while maintaining governance and investor protections.
In this collaboration, LRC Group, a pan-European real estate investment manager, will manage the fund, while Archax, described as a real-world assets (RWA) focused exchange, serves as custodian and the initial distribution partner. Ownera provides the interoperability layer that connects issuers, custodians and distribution channels, enabling the ecosystem to operate with greater connectivity across different platforms.
Cointelegraph requested additional details from Apex Group, but the firm did not provide further information by publication time.
Related industry coverage highlights the ongoing growth of real-world asset tokenization, including tokenized money-market funds, private funds and collateral networks. The broader market context shows institutional participants increasingly testing on-chain structures for traditional assets.
Apex Group’s involvement in tokenized real estate follows a previous move into tokenization in collaboration with Coinbase to launch a tokenized Bitcoin yield fund on the Base network earlier this year. The project underscored a trend where asset managers seek to combine blockchain-native issuance mechanisms with familiar fund governance and investor servicing standards.
Industry observers point to JPMorgan’s expansion of tokenization infrastructure through Kinexys, a platform focused on payments, collateral and asset tokenization, as part of a broader wave of Wall Street-backed experimentation with on-chain real assets. These efforts collectively illustrate a path toward more liquid, programmable access to real asset classes while aiming to preserve traditional risk controls and regulatory compliance.
Why this development matters for the market
Tokenizing real estate on GS DAP with a regulated, governance-oriented framework offers several potential benefits for investors and managers. First, on-chain units can improve settlement efficiency and reduce friction in cross-border transactions, potentially broadening the pool of eligible investors beyond typical fund structures. Second, the use of a centralized, regulated platform like GS DAP may help maintain consistent disclosure, compliance and investor servicing standards, even as assets move onto a blockchain-based issuance and transfer system. Third, the interoperability layer provided by Ownera could help align multiple distribution channels, custodians and issuers, reducing fragmentation in the tokenized-assets market.
What remains uncertain is how liquidity will evolve as tokenized real estate positions begin trading or transferring on chain. While GS DAP and Canton Network bring privacy and governance advantages to on-chain fund units, market liquidity for tokenized real estate remains a developing variable, contingent on regulatory clarity, custody reliability and the depth of secondary markets. Observers will also be watching how traditional asset managers balance compliance rigor with the speed and transparency promised by blockchain-native issuance.
Looking ahead: a continued push toward institutional tokenization
The Apex-led project reinforces a broader narrative: the financial industry is gradually moving real-world assets onto digital rails without sacrificing the controls and oversight investors expect. The integration of asset managers, custody partners and interoperability networks signals a more connected, standardized approach to tokenized funds—one that could accelerate the tokenization of real assets beyond private credit and real estate to include other asset classes as the ecosystem matures.
As tokenized funds gain traction, investors will want to monitor cadence from issuers about onboarding timelines, governance updates and liquidity options. Regulators, too, are likely to weigh in as more institutions pursue on-chain real asset offerings, looking to ensure that the benefits of tokenization are realized without compromising investor protections.
Readers should keep an eye on how this initiative unfolds across the GS DAP ecosystem, including any refinements to custody arrangements, distribution partnerships and cross-platform interoperability that could shape the pace and scope of institutional tokenization in the coming quarters.
Investors in Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund asked for their money back this quarter. Half of them won’t get it.
The $79 billion Blackstone Private Credit Fund (BCRED) told shareholders on Thursday that withdrawal requests hit 10% of its outstanding shares but the fund will honor just 5%.
It is the first time BCRED has ever capped redemptions.
The cap works out to about half of what investors wanted, according to a regulatory filing.
Last quarter, the fund did something more theatrical. Requests hit what was then a record 7.9%, higher than the quarterly 5% cap at which Blackstone is technically allowed to deny requests.
However, rather than turn anyone away, Blackstone tapped its own employees to fund the difference out of their personal accounts.
This quarter, with requests even higher, employee checkbooks stayed closed.
Private credit might not have been the cause of crypto’s rough week this week, but the two certainly declined together. Bitcoin led a broad sell-off, trading near $64,000 at time of writing and down 13% over the past week.
Given that tens of millions of US residents own crypto, many fund redemption requests came from the same crypto investors suffering these simultaneous drawdowns.
Tokenized private credit
Crypto players began piling into private credit a while ago, offering essentially the same products in a digital wrapper. Today, many stablecoin and altcoin treasury managers allocate capital directly to private credit funds.
Unfortunately, the same retail appetite that piled into illiquid yield products in traditional finance has been retreating, selling off tokenized proxies alongside real funds.
For example, ACRED, a tokenized feeder into Apollo’s Diversified Credit Fund, has lost 13% of its market cap over the last three weeks — its first reduction since inception after weeks of unbroken, consecutive upticks.
As Protos has previously documented, the same managers gating traditional credit funds have been tokenizing it on blockchains, where on-chain buying is instant and redeeming often takes weeks or months.
Crypto’s contribution to private credit was a change in speed as to how fast investors could buy. It did nothing to change the wait period to exit these illiquid funds.
In the meantime, a bad loan stays a bad loan, whether a smart contract wraps it or a quarterly tender offer rations it. This week, the largest private credit fund on the planet told half its investors the same thing: not yet.
The bear market continues in private credit
BCRED limits quarterly withdrawals to 5% of shares. When more investors want out than that, private credit managers slice everyone’s request down.
Any investor who requests a dollar receives 50 cents, with the rest locked in the fund until next quarter, when the same queue forms again.
Read more: Private credit firms prepare for bank run-type panic by gating investor withdrawals
BCRED is also hardly alone. Year to date, the common stocks of private credit giants Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, Blue Owl, and KKR are all lower, despite an 11% benchmark rally in the S&P 500 over the same time period.
Cliffwater’s $31 billion Corporate Lending Fund got hit with requests for 17% of its shares this week and is returning about one-third of those requests. The prior quarter, Cliffwater investors asked for a 14% redemption and received roughly half.
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Crypto exchange Bybit has added support for Western Union’s USDPT stablecoin, a move that brings the payments giant’s digital dollar onto a major crypto trading venue for the first time.
The companies announced on Thursday that USDPT, Western Union’s US dollar-pegged stablecoin, is now available on Bybit for holding, trading and transfers. The integration expands USDPT beyond payments and into crypto trading while increasing the range of dollar-denominated stablecoins available to Bybit users.
Bybit said it is the first major cryptocurrency exchange to support USDPT.
Source: Western Union
Western Union launched USDPT in May as part of its broader digital asset strategy. The stablecoin is issued by Western Union Digital and backed by reserves held at Anchorage Digital Bank. USDPT initially launched on the Solana blockchain.
Originally founded in 1851 as a telegraph company, Western Union has said the stablecoin is designed to align with the framework outlined in the US GENIUS Act, the federal legislation that established regulatory standards for payment stablecoins.
Related: Why stablecoins and SWIFT may have to coexist
Payment giants deepen stablecoin push
Stablecoins remain one of the fastest-growing segments of the digital asset market despite broader weakness in crypto prices. According to DeFiLlama, the total value of dollar-pegged stablecoins has climbed to nearly $320 billion.
Western Union joins a growing list of financial institutions and payments companies entering the stablecoin market.
Earlier this month, global payment service MoneyGram launched its own US dollar-pegged stablecoin, MGUSD, on the Stellar network as part of its broader push into blockchain-based payments and cross-border transfers.
Meanwhile, Mastercard announced Wednesday that it is expanding support for several stablecoins, including USDC (USDC), PayPal USD (PYUSD) and Ripple USD (RLUSD), as the payments giant deepens its involvement in digital asset settlement.
That support includes expanded settlement capabilities to let issuers and acquirers settle some card transactions using regulated stablecoins.
Rival payment network Visa is also gaining traction. In April, the company said its stablecoin settlement pilot had reached a $7 billion annualized transaction run rate, underscoring increasing adoption of blockchain-based payment rails.
Using a $200 remittance as a benchmark, World Bank data shows that digital transfer methods can reduce costs compared with traditional cross-border payment channels. Source: World Bank
The trend comes as policymakers and international institutions continue to examine the role of stablecoins in cross-border payments. The World Bank has noted that traditional remittance channels remain costly and can limit access in developing economies, areas where stablecoin-based transfers could offer efficiencies.
Related: Coinbase expands branded stablecoin infrastructure business with Flipcash USDF launch
Bitcoin (BTC) returned below $64,000 after Thursday’s Wall Street open as bulls nursed 13.5% weekly losses.
Key points:
- Bitcoin struggles to stabilize amid its worst week of losses in 2026 so far.
- $60,000 is the line in the sand for bulls to defend, analysis says.
- BTC price action with a key trend line closely mimics the 2022 bear market.
Bitcoin “sellers remain in control” as $60,000 nears
Data from TradingView showed BTC price strength barely recovering after a slide to its lowest levels since early February.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
BTC/USD revisited its 200-week simple moving average (SMA) trend line at the lows, continuing to copy “classic” bear-market behavior from 2022.
“Continuation down after that bearish retest in the low $80Ks region,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in a summary of the status quo on X.
“Clearly still a bigger down trend this has been in since October last year.”
Daan Crypto Trades said that the focus was now on $60,000 and its ability to sustain as support.
“Key area here in the low $60Ks least with the Weekly 200MA too,” he added.
BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-day chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that since October 2025, crypto markets had shed more than $2 trillion in market up.
Total crypto market cap one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
On short time frames, commentator Exitpump said that sellers still had the upper hand.
“Every bounce gets met with a wall of chasing asks on Binance perps orderbook. The moment buyers start pushing, more supply shows up overhead and keeps price pinned,” they told X followers.
“Sellers remain in control for now.”
BTC/USDT perpetual contract (Binance) chart with order-book liquidity. Source: Exitpump/X
Analysis notes “incredible” 2022 BTC price replay
At more than 13%, BTC/USD thus faced its worst week of 2026 so far, per data from CoinGlass.
Related: Trump says Iran will ‘work out well’: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
BTC/USD weekly performance (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Continuing on the 200-week trend line, meanwhile, currently at $61,626, trader and analyst Rekt Capital made the case for ongoing four-year BTC price cycles.
“On the 13th of June 2022, Bitcoin reached the 200-week SMA during its Bear Market correction,” he noted on the day.
“Now in the 2026 Bear Market, Bitcoin has reached the 200-week SMA almost exactly to the date 4 years later. Bitcoin Cycles are incredible.”
BTC/USD one-week chart with 200SMA. Source: Rekt Capital/X
A wallet tagged by Arkham to the publicly listed Ethereum treasury company FG Nexus moved another 10,000 Ether on Wednesday, extending a series of sales that began after the company built a large position in 2025.
The latest transfer equates to roughly $17.8 million at current prices and comes after earlier disposals that saw the Nasdaq-listed firm unwind more than 21,000 ETH from its treasury for roughly $55 million.
FG Nexus accumulated 50,770 ETH between August and September 2025 at an average price of $3,860 per coin, building a position worth about $196 million at the time.
With Ether trading near $1,765 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko data, the cryptocurrency is down roughly 54% from FG Nexus’s average purchase price of $3,860, implying a loss of more than $100 million in value on its original investment.
FG Nexus’s share price was down 13.40% pre-market Thursday, trading at $7.11, down from $8.21 at Wednesday’s close, according to Yahoo Finance data.
Wallet linked to FG Nexus moves 10k ETH. Source Arkham
The company disclosed holdings of roughly 40,093 ETH in December 2025 and has yet to publicly comment on its Ether sales since those disclosures, with recent transfers identified by onchain data providers not addressed in subsequent company statements.
Cointelegraph reached out to FG Nexus for comment but had not received a response by publication.
Institutional Ether holders continue accumulating
FG Nexus’ recent selling contrasts with the approach taken by other corporate Ether holders, who have continued to add to their positions despite Ethereum’s price decline.
Related: Ethereum drops to 14-week lows: Can ETH price hold $1.8K support?
Listed miner BitMine, the largest publicly traded holder of Ether with more than 5.4 million ETH, has been adding to its position, including a recent purchase of approximately $52 million worth of Ether.
The company also unveiled plans Wednesday to issue dividend-paying preferred shares, expanding the financing tools available to support its Ethereum treasury strategy.
Some analysts likewise remain upbeat on Ether’s long-term outlook despite its recent underperformance.
Standard Chartered reaffirmed its long-term $40,000 Ether price target last week, saying that Ethereum’s network fundamentals are strengthening, and pointing to growing onchain activity and continued dominance in decentralized finance.
The bank compared Ethereum’s current position to Amazon during its early growth phase, arguing that the asset’s market performance has yet to fully reflect those underlying trends.
Market Moves: Why is Ethereum Foundation selling? BTC futures warning signs
Bitcoin has fallen more than 15% this week and briefly slipped towards $61,000, yet Standard Chartered has kept its year-end price target at $100,000 and said the current decline may offer a buying opportunity.
Summary
- Standard Chartered kept its $100,000 Bitcoin target, saying the recent selloff may be nearing an end.
- Geoffrey Kendrick expects Strategy to resume Bitcoin purchases and cited resilient spot ETF inflows.
- The bank said recent Bitcoin liquidations were smaller than those seen in major past market crashes.
According to a note sent to clients on June 4, Standard Chartered believes the factors behind the latest selloff are starting to fade even as some market participants continue to warn of deeper losses.
The bank’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said Bitcoin’s bottom is “nearly in place” after a sharp correction driven by spot ETF outflows, forced liquidations, and concerns surrounding Strategy’s recent Bitcoin sale.
At the time of the note, Bitcoin (BTC) had recovered from its intraday lows and was trading around the mid-$60,000 range. Despite the rebound, the cryptocurrency remains roughly 30% lower for the year.
Kendrick told clients that investors may ultimately view current prices as an attractive entry point when looking back from the end of 2026, when Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to trade near $100,000.
Strategy buying remains a key bullish factor
One reason behind the bank’s optimism centers on Strategy’s history of returning to the market after selling Bitcoin.
Earlier this week, the company disclosed the sale of 32 BTC worth approximately $2.5 million to meet preferred stock distribution obligations. The transaction attracted attention because Strategy, led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, has spent years promoting a long-term accumulation strategy.
Even so, Kendrick noted that the company previously sold Bitcoin in 2022 before increasing its holdings shortly afterward. Based on that pattern, he expects Strategy to resume what he described as aggressive Bitcoin purchases.
While the sale contributed to negative sentiment across crypto markets, Standard Chartered argued that the market reaction may have overstated its significance.
Another factor supporting the bank’s outlook is the resilience of spot Bitcoin ETF demand. According to Kendrick, cumulative net inflows since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs remain around $54.2 billion. Holdings have declined modestly from a peak near 682,000 BTC to roughly 674,000 BTC, but the bank said the overall trend has remained relatively stable.
Liquidation pressure appears less severe
Beyond ETF flows and corporate buying, Standard Chartered pointed to derivatives positioning as another reason for caution against overly bearish forecasts.
The bank noted that roughly $1.5 billion in leveraged Bitcoin futures positions were liquidated during the recent downturn. Kendrick said this figure is comparable to liquidation events seen during previous corrections and remains below levels associated with some of the market’s most severe crashes.
Recent comments from the bank have not been limited to Bitcoin. Last week, Kendrick compared Ethereum’s current weakness to Amazon’s experience during the collapse of the dot-com bubble, arguing that token prices do not always move in line with underlying network progress.
Standard Chartered maintained its Ethereum targets of $4,000 by the end of 2026 and $40,000 by 2030.
Meanwhile, the bank has continued expanding its presence in the digital asset sector. As reported by crypto.news earlier, Coinbase recently broadened its partnership with Standard Chartered, adding institutional funding support for the Australian dollar, Singapore dollar, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc, while also providing GSIB-backed settlement services for euro and pound transactions across Coinbase Prime and Coinbase Exchange.
According to Coinbase, the arrangement is intended to help institutional clients move capital more efficiently across trading and financing activities.
Crypto has become a key payment rail for a fast-growing gray-market peptide trade, according to a new Chainalysis report.
Summary
- Chainalysis said gray-market peptide sales topped a $100 million annual run rate as buyers increasingly used crypto payments online.
- The report said first-quarter peptide sales reached $32 million, rising 159% from $12 million in the previous quarter.
- Chainalysis found that larger peptide vendors relied more on stablecoins to reduce exposure to Bitcoin’s sharp price swings.
Chainalysis said Thursday that off-label peptide sales have climbed past a $100 million annual run rate, as online wellness trends and demand for cheaper compounds push buyers toward overseas suppliers. The blockchain analytics firm said first-quarter sales in 2026 reached $32 million, up 159% from $12 million in the prior quarter.
The report linked the surge to rising public interest in peptides, which are protein building blocks used across health, fitness, and wellness markets. Chainalysis said the success of GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy helped bring related products into mainstream online discussion, even as many buyers turned to unregulated alternatives.
Crypto becomes payment backbone
According to Chainalysis, traditional banks and card processors often restrict transactions tied to prescription-grade compounds and unregulated substances. As a result, the firm said many vendors have adopted cryptocurrency to handle payments outside normal financial channels.
Chainalysis described the peptide trade as a “gray market” served by overseas suppliers that sell raw and unbranded products directly to consumers. The firm said Chinese chemical manufacturers now account for much of the supply, partly because some sellers face limits in traditional banking systems.
In its report, Chainalysis said top vendors have developed a more organized approach to crypto payments. The firm found that suppliers often use bitcoin and stablecoins, while larger vendors show a stronger preference for stablecoins.
Stablecoins dominate larger orders
Among vendors receiving average deposits of $1,000 or more, Chainalysis said stablecoins made up most of the payment mix. The firm said this pattern may help sellers reduce exposure to Bitcoin’s price swings when handling larger supply orders.
The report also compared the peptide market with other research-chemical networks that have used crypto for online sales. Chainalysis said some suppliers connected to fentanyl precursor sales appear to have moved into peptides or added them to existing operations.
One example cited by Chainalysis was Shanghai Sigma Audley. The firm said the supplier, which it linked to suspected transnational drug networks, had received at least $1 million in bitcoin and $3.59 million in stablecoins from fentanyl precursor sales before expanding into peptides.
Testing spend falls per buyer
Chainalysis also raised concerns about product safety. The firm said many wallets that bought peptides from China previously sent funds to Janoshik, a Czech company that provides independent chemical purity testing.
However, Chainalysis said testing spend per buyer has dropped sharply as the market has grown. The report estimated that average testing spend fell 88% to about $8 per buyer, even though Janoshik is testing more products overall because the number of buyers has increased.
The report said the peptide sector often reaches people with limited experience in both cryptocurrency and unregulated pharmaceuticals. Chainalysis said this creates added risk for buyers who may not understand product quality concerns, payment traceability, or the legal limits around these substances.
Coinbase has launched pre-intial public offering (IPO) markets, starting with SpaceX, offering users outside the United States exposure to private companies before they list publicly via a perpetual futures contract tied to the company’s estimated pre-listing price.
The product is a USDC-settled perpetual futures contract that tracks SpaceX’s pre-IPO valuation. It allows 24/7 trading with no expiry or rollover, with profits and losses settled in USDC, according to a company blog post Thursday.
Coinbase said the positions can be opened and closed at any time, similar to existing perpetual futures contracts on the platform. Upon a future IPO, positions will automatically transition into a post-IPO perpetual futures contract referencing the public listing.
The offering is not available to US persons at launch and is initially rolling out to “eligible users in supported jurisdictions outside the United States,” reflecting restrictions on offering private market securities exposure in the country.
Coinbase said the product is intended to expand access to private market exposure, which has traditionally been limited to venture capital firms and institutional investors, with SpaceX serving as the initial listing due to strong global demand for exposure to Elon Musk’s space and satellite company.
Pre-IPO perpetual futures launch on Coinbase. Source Coinbase
Cointelegraph reached out to Coinbase for comment, but did not receive a response by publication.
Crypto exchanges race to offer pre-IPO exposure
The launch comes amid intensifying competition among crypto exchanges to bring private market exposure into tokenized or synthetic form. Kraken’s parent company, Payward, announced a similar initiative Wednesday, offering tokenized access to pre-IPO companies.
Related: Coinbase invests in ProShares ETF tailored for stablecoin reserve assets
Binance also launched derivative products linked to high-profile private firms, including SpaceX, in May, while in April, Bitget launched IPO Prime, a platform for pre-IPO investment products, starting with a SpaceX-linked offering.
The broader push coincides with accelerating interest in tokenized real-world assets. Research from Bernstein released May 26 estimated the RWA market has grown to $51 billion, expanding 42% this year as investors seek fractional exposure to traditionally illiquid private assets.
A separate Bitget Wallet report, published May 26, found tokenized stocks still make up a low-single-digit share of the RWA market, with most activity clustered in a few big-tech names such as Tesla, Alphabet and Microsoft trading on offshore platforms.
SpaceX remains one of the most closely watched private companies globally, with valuations in recent private market and institutional estimates reaching as high as $1.75 trillion, depending on methodology and secondary market pricing.
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Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings fell deep into paper-loss territory as BTC traded below the company’s average purchase price, renewing scrutiny of Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury model.
Strategy holds 843,706 Bitcoin (BTC) acquired at an average price of $75,699 per coin, with a total cost basis of $63.8 billion. However, the latest Bitcoin downturn sank the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin reserve to $52.6 billion, pushing its unrealized loss to $11.2 billion, according to the company’s dashboard.
Strategy’s variable-rate perpetual preferred stock, STRC, has also declined below its intended $100 value and is traded at $94.6 at the time of writing. Strategy’s (MSTR) stock price was down 1.5% in pre-market trading to $124.7 on Thursday, Yahoo Finance data shows.
The paper loss adds to scrutiny of Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury model as BTC trades below the company’s average acquisition price, while the downturn in STRC price could complicate future preferred-stock issuance to fund its Bitcoin acquisitions. It comes days after Strategy announced the sale of 32 BTC, its first sale since 2022.
Strategy dashboard with key metrics on its Bitcoin reserve. Source: Strategy.com
Saylor pushed back on the bearish read Thursday, saying that mounting exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows are “pressuring BTC,” and capital markets have poured $400 billion into AI infrastructure over the past six months.
“This is a capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment. Volatility creates opportunity,” said Saylor in an X post.
Source: Michael Saylor
Bitcoin’s price is down around 4.7% in the past 24 hours and 13.8% in the past week. The cryptocurrency traded at $63,157 at the time of writing, down over 20% in the past month, according to TradingView. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged $4.4 billion in outflows in the past 13 trading days, Cointelegraph reported earlier on Thursday.
BTC/USD, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Some market watchers said the STRC move was not unusual.
“STRC’s $100 par value is not a price floor. It’s the stated value used for liquidation preference and certain redemption provisions,” wrote popular investor and podcast host Scott Melker, adding:
“A 5% discount to par is not evidence that something is broken. It’s evidence that investors are demanding a higher yield, pricing risk, or reacting to market conditions – exactly what preferred stocks do.”
Others were less optimistic. Gold bug and long-time Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff said that the lower the STRC price falls, the higher MSTR will be forced to increase dividend payments to “bring the share price back up to $100,” which means that “MSTR will run out of cash much sooner, pulling forward Bitcoin sales to fund payments.”
Related: Capital B seeks $122B funding mandate to buy more Bitcoin
Standard Chartered says Bitcoin bottom near, depending on Strategy’s next move
Despite the sell-off, Standard Chartered predicted that the Bitcoin market bottom may be near, depending on Strategy’s next purchase.
“I would see it as a tentative sign the low has been printed, and given that logic, suspect selling over the weekend will be muted,” said Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered.
Kendrick said a purchase of 320 BTC or 3,200 BTC, equal to 10 times or 100 times the recent sale, could signal a market bottom.
Following Strategy’s prior tax-loss sale of 704 BTC in 2022, the company purchased 810 BTC just two days later.
Magazine: Bitcoin ETFs bleed $1B, Aave’s $71M ETH unfreeze bid delayed: Hodler’s Digest, May 10 – 16
Hyperliquid (HYPE) entered the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on June 1st, after surpassing the OG meme coin, Dogecoin (DOGE), with a valuation of over $16 billion.
According to a report by CoinGecko, this development made HYPE only the second pure decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol to reach the top 10, after Uniswap achieved the feat in 2021 during the crypto bull market that followed the 2020 “DeFi Summer.”
HYPE Enters Crypto Top 10
CoinGecko said Hyperliquid’s rise was partly supported by its stronger performance compared with the broader crypto market, allowing it to establish itself as one of the few digital assets that remained in an uptrend during the 2026 bear market.
HYPE has been one of the strongest performers in the crypto market in recent weeks, as it witnessed both price action and increased community interest. As the token rallied to a record high above $73, discussions and positive sentiment around the project surged across X, Reddit, Telegram, and other crypto communities.
Although HYPE has since settled near the $65 level amid a broader market pullback, enthusiasm surrounding the token remains strong. According to market observers, the recent correction has done little to weaken the overall bullish outlook.
Zooming Out
Bitcoin has remained the largest crypto by market cap every single year since 2014, but its “grip has loosened slightly” over the past decade. Bitcoin accounted for 87% of the combined market cap of the top 10 cryptos back in June 2014, compared with 64.9% in June 2026, a decline of 22.1 percentage points over 12 years.
Despite this, CoinGecko said no other asset has come close to challenging its overall dominance.
The report also pointed to Ethereum’s arrival in 2016 as the “single most consequential structural shift” in the top 10’s makeup. Entering directly at second place with an 11.1% share, Ethereum formed a long-standing two-asset core alongside Bitcoin. Its share later peaked at 23.5% during the 2021 DeFi and NFT boom before easing to 10.6% by 2026 as competing Layer 1 blockchains gained a larger presence.
Meanwhile, Ripple (XRP) stood out as the only non-Bitcoin cryptocurrency to remain in the top 10 every single year from 2014 through 2026, as it expanded from a $32 million valuation and a 0.3% share in 2014 to $127.9 billion and a 4.3% share by 2025.
The post Hyperliquid (HYPE) Just Did What Only One DeFi Token Had Done Before: CoinGecko appeared first on CryptoPotato.
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