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Philippines Declares First-Ever National Energy Emergency Over Iran War Fuel Crisis

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TLDR:

  • The Philippines imports 98% of its oil from Gulf nations, all directly disrupted by the ongoing Iran war conflict.
  • Fuel prices have nearly tripled since February 28, with diesel hitting 130 pesos and LPG reserves lasting just 24 days.
  • President Marcos signed Executive Order 110, granting authority over fuel rationing and essential goods distribution nationwide.
  • Labor union KMU warned the emergency order could restrict worker strikes, with transport workers planning a two-day strike this week.

The Philippines has become the first country to declare a national energy emergency linked to the ongoing Iran war. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed Executive Order 110 on Tuesday.

The order cites an imminent danger to the country’s energy supply stability. With roughly 45 days of fuel remaining on average, the government is moving quickly.

The declaration grants broad authority over fuel purchasing, rationing, and distribution of essential goods across the nation.

A Nation Running Low on Fuel

The Philippines imports 98% of its oil from the Gulf region. Its top three suppliers — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq — are all caught up in the conflict.

Together, these three nations account for billions of dollars in annual oil exports to the Philippines. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down, those supply lines have been severely disrupted.

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Saudi Arabia has already cut oil exports to Asia for a second straight month. Meanwhile, the Philippines produces just 14,300 barrels of oil per day domestically.

The country consumes around 474,000 barrels daily, leaving a 97% gap between supply and demand. That gap is now at the center of a deepening national crisis.

As TFTC noted on X: “The Philippines just became the first country in the world to declare a national energy emergency over the Iran war. They have 45 days of fuel left.”

Energy Secretary Sharon Garin provided a detailed breakdown of current reserves. “Gasoline for 53 days, diesel for 46 days, jet fuel for 39 days, and LPG for just 24 days,” Garin stated. The 45-day figure represents the average across all petroleum products. These numbers have pushed the government toward emergency measures.

Fuel Prices Surge as Government Acts

Fuel prices in the Philippines have nearly tripled since the war began on February 28. Diesel, widely used across the country, has surged to nearly 130 pesos per liter.

Kerosene, a cooking fuel for lower-income households, has climbed to 145 pesos. Gasoline has now exceeded 90 pesos per liter, more than double pre-war levels.

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In response, the government has introduced several conservation measures. Civil servants are now on a four-day workweek to cut fuel use.

Ferry services have also been reduced, and transport workers are receiving 5,000-peso subsidies. The country is also shifting temporarily to coal-fired power plants to reduce reliance on liquefied natural gas.

Labor unions, however, are not satisfied. The KMU, the Philippines’ largest labor coalition, described the executive order as an “admission” that the government failed to act sooner.

The group also warned that provisions in the order could be used to “restrict strikes and protests.” Transport workers are planning a two-day strike on Thursday and Friday in direct response to the crisis.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Rebounds 4% on Iran Ceasefire Hopes but Faces $72K Resistance

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Bitcoin Rebounds 4% on Iran Ceasefire Hopes but Faces $72K Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) rose back above $71,000 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday after Trump’s administration offered a 15-point plan to Iran to end the war, sparking short-term optimism across risk assets.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin bounces 4% to $71,500 after President Trump sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war. 

  • Bitcoin faces stiff resistance above $72,000. 

Bitcoin jumps 4% on ceasefire hopes

Data from TradingView showed BTC price rose as much as 4% to an intraday high of $71,300 from Tuesday’s low of $68,890, recouping all the losses incurred the day prior.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The price reacted to news that the US, through the primary intermediary Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir (Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff), has sent Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war.

The key elements of the plan include: a temporary ceasefire with calls on Iran to dismantle or severely limit its nuclear program, suspend its ballistic-missile work, and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for safe maritime traffic.

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Source: X/The Kobeissi Letter

Meanwhile, Iran continues to deny any ongoing talks as ​​Trump delayed his self-imposed deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Following the news, WTI crude oil dropped 5.75% to $87 per barrel, while Brent crude shed 6% to trade at $98.

Oil prices table. Source: Oil Price.com

Gold extended yesterday’s gains, now up 2.53% on the day to trade at $4,561 at the time of writing.

This move eases inflation fears tied to disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, positively impacting risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Analysts noted the swift repricing, with Coinlore saying that Bitcoin is now acting as a “real-time sentiment instrument for global risk.”

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr said that BTC will “likely remain headline-driven” until the US and Iran send a “public de-escalation signal.”

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Bitcoin price faces “rough times ahead”

Despite the rebound, BTC’s upside appears to be capped at $72,000, where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the upper trend line of a symmetrical triangle converge.

A break above $72,000 would confirm a bullish breakout from the triangle, toward the measured target at $92,400, 30% above the current price.

BTC/USD daily chart. Cointelegraph/TradingView

Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution heatmap reveals concentrated supply and resistance between $72,000 and $74,000, where investors acquired roughly 380,000 BTC over the last 30 days. This indicates that sellers could aggressively defend this zone.

Bitcoin cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode

On the downside, a dense accumulation cluster sits around $65,000, where investors previously acquired 160,000 BTC. 

This level coincides with the lower trend line of the symmetrical triangle, which, if lost, could trigger the next leg lower toward the bearish target of the triangle at $52,500.

Meanwhile, Capriole Investment’s Bitcoin Macro index has dropped to -1.37, levels seen at the depth of previous bear cycles.

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The chart below shows that the metric historically spends a year at or below these valuations before recovering.

“Bitcoin Macro index is in the value zone,” Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards said in an X post on Wednesday, adding:

“In all prior instances, price went lower into deeper value first before recovering, suggesting we may have more rough times ahead first.”

Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: Capriole Investments

As Cointelegraph reported, traders warn of a second bear flag breakdown that could clear the path for another sell-off below $50,000.