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Polymarket Gives Trump’s Iran Deadline Only a 3% Chance

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Polymarket traders are giving Trump’s Iran ceasefire deadline just a 3% chance of success, based on over $103 million in live trading volume. That single number captures everything about where market sentiment stands right now.

The numbers send a clear message: the crowd sees no deal arriving on Trump’s timeline.

The Crowd Has Already Decided: No Deal Tuesday

Iran rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal brokered primarily by Pakistan, with Egypt and Turkey also involved as mediators. Tehran countered with its own 10-point plan, demanding a permanent end to the war instead. Trump dismissed the Iranian response as insufficient and insisted that his Tuesday deadline was final.

Polymarket’s probability curve shows ceasefire odds rising only slowly across future dates. Traders put the chances at 15% by April 15 and 29% by the end of April. The window stretches to 59% by June 30 and 76% by the end of December.

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A separate Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz shipping paints an equally grim picture. That market assigns just 14% odds to traffic returning to normal levels by April 30. The contract has dropped more than 51 percentage points since it first opened for trading.

Oil Shock Meets Crypto: The Bill Is Coming Due

The ongoing war has pushed oil prices sharply higher as the strait remains effectively shut to normal traffic. Polymarket’s separate “Will WTI hit $120 in April?” contract now sits at 77%, a stark reflection of how traders see the energy crunch playing out. Both markets together paint a picture of a world where the war drags on, and oil stays expensive.

Polymarket’s crowd is betting that Tuesday’s deadline will pass without any breakthrough agreement. The ceasefire contract’s 3% odds have barely moved even as mediators worked through the weekend. Until that number shifts decisively, prediction markets say the conflict has much further to run.

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Did Japan’s PM Actually Back the Memecoin Bearing Her Name?

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Japan’s SANAE TOKEN saga has entered a new phase, with fresh media reports alleging the prime minister’s office knew more than it admitted. But for crypto markets, the bigger story is what happens next in Tokyo’s legislature.

The political noise and the regulatory signal are arriving at exactly the same time.

How the Token Unraveled

SANAE TOKEN launched on Solana on Feb. 25, as BeInCrypto reported. NoBorder DAO — a community led by serial entrepreneur Yuji Mizoguchi — issued it as part of a “Japan is Back” initiative, with Takaichi’s name and likeness on the project website. The token surged over 40x on launch day before Takaichi’s March 2 denial triggered a 58% crash.

The FSA opened a probe into NoBorder DAO for operating without a crypto exchange license. The token’s operators halted issuance shortly after.

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The SANAE TOKEN website describes the token as “not just a meme, but the hope of Japan,” alongside a portrait of Prime Minister Takaichi and a timeline of her political career. Source: japanisbacksanaet.jp

Japanese Tabloid Reports Secretary’s Approval

Weekly Bunshun, a Japanese tabloid known for breaking political and celebrity scandals, says developer Ken Matsui told the magazine his team informed Takaichi’s office that the project was a crypto asset. That directly contradicts her March 2 denial. Takaichi said neither she nor her office had been told anything about the token.

The publication says it obtained audio recordings of Takaichi’s chief secretary over a period of more than 20 years, reportedly describing the project favorably. Another Japanese online media reported that Takaichi’s office had not responded to media inquiries on the matter as of Tuesday. Takaichi has held no press conference since February 18, when her second cabinet was inaugurated.

The political dimension remains unresolved. What matters for crypto is whether the scandal accelerates — or complicates — Japan’s regulatory overhaul.

FSA Bill Changes the Rules

Japan’s Financial Services Agency submitted its landmark crypto reform bill to parliament this week, Asahi Shimbun reported. The legislation moves crypto from the Payment Services Act into the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, reclassifying digital assets as financial instruments for the first time.

As BeInCrypto previously reported, the maximum prison term for unlicensed crypto sales would triple to 10 years, with fines rising from ¥3 million to ¥10 million. The SESC gains criminal investigation powers it has never held over crypto operators. The SANAE TOKEN case was explicitly cited in Nikkei’s reporting on the legislative push.

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The bill would also void transactions with unregistered operators by default, making it easier for investors to seek refunds — a provision directly relevant to the SANAE TOKEN case.

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Every 5 Minutes: Korea’s New Rule for Crypto Exchanges

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South Korea’s financial regulator has ordered all crypto exchanges to verify user asset balances every five minutes, following a massive overpayment incident that shook market confidence earlier this year.

One botched reward payout exposed systemic cracks across the entire industry.

What Triggered the Rules

In February, Bithumb accidentally sent 2,000 BTC per person instead of 2,000 Korean won ($1.40) during a promotional event. The error amounted to roughly $42 billion in misallocated crypto. The Financial Services Commission (FSC) launched emergency inspections across all five major Korean exchanges immediately after. What they found went far beyond a single human mistake.

Most exchanges were only reconciling their books once every 24 hours. Three had no automatic kill switch to halt trading when discrepancies appeared. Four lacked multi-step approval systems for high-risk manual transactions. Two exchanges hadn’t even separated their general accounts from high-risk transaction accounts — a basic safeguard.

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What Exchanges Must Now Do

The FSC announced a three-pillar reform package on April 6. Exchanges must run automated balance checks every five minutes, with alerts and automatic trading halts triggered by major mismatches. Monthly external audits replace the previous quarterly schedule, and public disclosures must now include asset-by-asset blockchain holdings rather than a simple coverage ratio.

For manual, high-risk transactions such as event payouts, exchanges must use separate accounts, deploy validity-check systems that automatically reject mismatched inputs, and require cross-verification by a third party before execution.

The FSC will also require exchanges to appoint dedicated risk management officers and establish risk management committees — standards already expected of traditional financial firms. Compliance checks move from annual to twice-yearly, with results reported to regulators.

DAXA, the industry body, will complete self-regulatory amendments this month, with systems built out by May. Key provisions will feed into Korea’s forthcoming second-phase Digital Asset Act.

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Chaos Labs Leaves Aave Due to Budget, Risk Disagreements

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Chaos Labs Leaves Aave Due to Budget, Risk Disagreements

Chaos Labs has parted ways with the Aave ecosystem after serving as the crypto lending protocol’s main risk service provider for three years, citing a budget dispute and disagreements over how Aave should manage risk.

“This decision was not made in haste,” Chaos Labs founder Omer Goldberg said in a post to X on Monday. “We worked in good faith with DAO contributors. Aave Labs was professional and supported increasing our budget to $5m to retain us. However, we are leaving because the engagement no longer reflects how we believe risk should be managed.”

Source: Omer Goldberg

Aave Labs CEO Stani Kulechov said that Chaos didn’t depart on bad terms, but claimed that Chaos pitched a proposal seeking to become the sole risk provider and thus force out other partners — a compromise Aave wasn’t willing to accept.

Chaos played a key role in Aave’s back-end infrastructure, from pricing loans and managing risk in the Aave V2 and V3 markets since November 2022, during which Aave’s total value locked rose fivefold to $26 billion.

Risk has been a major talking point in the Aave community after a user lost $50 million in a trade while interacting with Aave’s interface on March 12. The following week, Aave said it would introduce an “Aave Shield” protection feature to deter users from high-risk trades.

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As for Chaos’ departure, Goldberg said there became an increasing misalignment over how the parties thought risk should be managed. He noted that some Aave contributors had left, raising its workload, while also arguing that Aave V4’s expanded functionality introduced additional operational and legal risks that fell on Chaos’ shoulders.

“While Aave Labs is optimistic about a swift migration to V4, history suggests these transitions take months and even years,” Goldberg said. “Until V4 fully absorbs V3’s markets and liquidity, both systems need to be operated and managed simultaneously. The workload during the transition doesn’t halve. It doubles.”

Weighing the risk of a protocol failure, Goldberg said, “There is no regulatory framework, no safe harbor, and no settled law that answers the question of what a risk manager or curator owes when a protocol fails. If things work, the work is invisible. If things break, the blame is not.”

As such, “We are walking away from a $5 million engagement,” Goldberg said.

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Chaos wanted Aave to boot LlamaRisk, Chainlink: Kulechov

Aave Labs CEO Stani Kulechov told a slightly different story, stating that Chaos wanted to be the sole risk manager and use its price oracles instead of Chainlink’s.

Following that request would have forced Aave to push out its other risk protocol partner, LlamaRisk, and thus abandon its two-layer economic risk model.

Related: DeFi lender Aave launches on OKX’s Ethereum L2, X Layer

Kulechov added Aave was unwilling to integrate Chaos-built price oracles, citing Aave’s “track record” with Chainlink’s services, which its “users are currently more comfortable with at scale.”

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He also said Chaos was already “exploring winding down its risk consultancy services,” and that Aave had offered to double its payment to $5 million to retain them.

Cointelegraph reached out to Chaos Labs for comment.

Kulechov noted that Chaos’ departure hasn’t disrupted the Aave protocol, its smart contracts, token listings or network integrations.

Moving forward, Aave said it “will work closely with LlamaRisk to ensure a smooth transition” and maintain its two-layer economic risk model. 

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Source: LlamaRisk

Chaos’ departure comes amid a protocol-wide feud over how much funding and revenue control Aave Labs should receive versus Aave’s decentralized autonomous organization.

Despite the internal issues, Aave crossed the $1 trillion mark in cumulative lending volume in late February, marking a first in the DeFi industry.

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