Attackers have reportedly hit prediction market platform Polymarket with a private key hack and stolen roughly $700,000 worth of crypto.  

Crypto sleuth ZachXBT first flagged the attack earlier today, noting, “A Polymarket deployer address appears to have been compromised on Polygon.”

Crypto security firm Bubblemaps later confirmed that an exploit was underway and that the hacker was stealing 5,000 POL ($460) every 30 seconds. 

It added that the stolen funds were split across 16 addresses before being moved to centralised crypto exchanges, and that ~$700,000 has been stolen so far. 

Polymarket’s developer X account said it is aware of the incident “linked to rewards payout,” and claimed, “user funds and market resolution are safe.” 

It claimed, “Findings point to a private key compromise of a wallet used for internal top-up operations, not contracts or core infrastructure.”

Read more: Are Polymarket and Kalshi decentralized?

Polymarket developer Josh Stevens also noted that the incident is “not a contract hack,” and that it’s likely a compromise of an old private key.

The funds were taken from a crypto address associated with Polymarket’s UMA system, the platform’s oracle system that relies on tokenholders to resolve disputes on disputed outcomes.

The attacker’s last transaction from this UMA address was at 09:00 UTC, roughly 40 minutes before time of writing.

Week of hacks, insider trading, and inquiries for Polymarket

It’s been a turbulent week for Polymarket, with the firm also being the subject of an inquiry in South Korea over potential gambling violations. 

The country’s Korea Communications Standards Commission wants to know if the platform’s services constitute gambling.

Bubblemaps also suspects that a large case of insider trading has been taking place on the platform that involves the leaking of US military secrets. 

Read more: Polymarket users try manipulate Israeli journalist with death threats, report

Bubblemaps claims that nine accounts were able to make over $2.4 million betting on military markets with a 98% win rate. 

The firm has repeatedly drawn criticism over insider trading, and has witnessed suspicious trades on markets involving Israeli strikes against Iran and the US’s kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Polymarket launched a new type of trading this week that allows users to bet on future valuations, IPO timings, and secondary share price action involving private companies such as OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic.

Polymarket also reportedly appointed a Japanese representative as it lobbies for regulatory approval within Japan.

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CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 2085.44, down 0.0% (-0.18) since 4 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Fourteen of the 20 assets are trading higher.

Leaders: NEAR (+19.4%) and ICP (+4.3%).

Laggards: SUI (-2.6%) and XRP (-1.0%).

The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), the parent company of Truth Social, has transferred another 2,650 bitcoin BTC$77,457.54 to Crypto.com in a move that is likely to intensify scrutiny of the company’s struggling cryptocurrency strategy.

At current market prices, the transfer is worth roughly $205 million, with bitcoin trading at approximately $77,341 per token. Blockchain data shows the deposit occurred during late U.S. evening hours, according to Lookonchain, marking the latest significant movement in the company’s digital asset holdings.

Trump Media originally purchased 11,542 BTC for approximately $1.37 billion at an average acquisition price of $118,522 per bitcoin. The latest transfer follows an earlier move four months ago, when the company shifted out 2,000 BTC valued at roughly $175 million at the time, with bitcoin trading near $87,378.

Following the newest transaction, Trump Media is now estimated to be down roughly $455 million on its bitcoin holdings as the cryptocurrency continues to trade well below the company’s average purchase price.

The latest crypto transfer comes just days after Trump Media withdrew its application for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, raising fresh questions about the company’s ambitions in the increasingly crowded crypto investment market. ETF analysts said the decision appeared to be driven less by structural or regulatory concerns and more by deteriorating economics across the spot bitcoin ETF sector.

The company’s financial results have also come under pressure from its aggressive cryptocurrency positioning. In May, Trump Media reported a staggering first-quarter net loss of $405.9 million on just $871,200 in revenue, widening sharply from a $31.7 million loss reported during the same period a year earlier.

Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies and co-founder of Fundstrat, does not expect the coming wave of mega IPOs to derail markets even if they could eclipse the entire dot-com boom in scale.

Lee recently discussed the potential effect of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI listing which could unleash trillions of dollars in new equity supply into public markets.

In inflation adjusted terms, Elon Musk’s SpaceX alone could become the second largest IPO ever, seeking a market valuation above $1.5 trillion, behind only Saudi Aramco.

Lee acknowledged concerns about the amount of supply these listings could introduce into public markets, especially after the standard 90-day lock-up periods expire. He noted that SpaceX is likely the most anticipated IPO ever, Lee estimates the three IPOs could generate trillions in supply, equivalent to roughly 5% to 6% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization.

Despite the scale, Lee does not believe the situation is necessarily outright bearish for the markets. He argues that family offices, pensions, and high net worth investors currently hold historically low allocations to public equities after years of favoring private markets and alternative investments.

There is significant capital available to absorb the liquidity as allocations rotate back toward U.S. public stocks, in Lee’s view.

He also expects many early investors to hedge or borrow against holdings rather than immediately sell and trigger large tax events.

Lee also discussed cryptocurrency’s underperformance against expectations despite growing institutional interest, highlighting how instant settlement and transaction verification are driving Wall Street’s push towards tokenisation, a point he previously made at Consensus Miami 2026.

Furthermore, Lee believes blockchain could provide a neutral framework for identity verification in an AI driven world. Banks are increasingly circling the industry because they recognize the significant revenue opportunities emerging from the convergence of crypto, AI, and finance, he added.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, and OKX announced Friday that they are joining forces to roll out perpetual oil futures.

In a joint statement, the firms’ said ICE’s futures prices for Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will bolster the new perpetual contracts on OKX.

The new perpetual contracts based on ICE’s data will open energy benchmark product access to OKX’s 120 million retail traders, said Trabue Bland, senior vice president of futures exchanges at ICE.

The new contracts will be available on OKX, in which ICE holds a stake, across territories where the crypto company is already licensed to offer perpetual futures.

“Oil markets are critical to the world economy,” Haider Rafique, global managing partner at OKX, said in the statement. Bringing ICE’s benchmarks “into regulated perpetual futures is exactly the kind of bridge between traditional and digital markets that market participants have been asking for.”

The ICE and OKX foray into oil perps comes as Hyperliquid’s oil futures contracts that never expire have proven to be a tremendous success, consistently generating roughly $1.6 billion in daily trading volume and more than $1.3 billion in open interest.

Perpetual futures, also known as “perps,” are a type of derivative contract that give traders the ability to bet on prices of assets such as oil or bitcoin. But unlike traditional futures, perps never expire, so traders don’t have to take possession of physical barrels of oil or roll over those contracts.

Most perpetual products are offered on offshore exchanges and are not regulated the same way traditional commodity exchanges such as ICE and CME Group Inc. are in the U.S., but Michael Selig, the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), recently said he will bring them under his agency’s oversight soon.

In a sign of the increasing confluence of crypto and traditional financial (TradFi) firms, ICE and OKX signed a deal in March to build technology, including blockchain networks, that would give ICE’s customers access to crypto-based futures and OKX customers the ability to trade tokenized securities on NYSE’s platform. ICE also made a strategic investment valuing the San Jose, California-based company at $25 billion.

Ark Invest bought $5 million worth of Bullish (BLSH) stock on Thursday, the fourth day in a row it has added BLSH shares to its exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Cathie Wood’s investment manager has purchased $12.5 million worth of shares in the crypto group, which is also CoinDesk’s parent company, since Monday based on the stock’s closing prices, according to emailed disclosures.

BLSH shares closed 0.2% lower at $35.96 on Thursday, having fallen more than 17% in the last two weeks, a period in which bitcoin BTC$77,398.65 struggled to break above the $80,000 resistance.

Ark frequently uses broader digital asset downturns, which tend to pull crypto equities lower, as an entry point into cryptocurrency companies.

Polymarket, a global prediction market platform, is pursuing a launch in Japan as regulators worldwide tighten scrutiny of the sector. Bloomberg reported that Polymarket has appointed Mike Eidlin—formerly the head of Japan at crypto firm Jupiter—to lead its local efforts and to push for regulatory authorization to operate prediction markets in the country. The company is aiming for government approval by 2030, signaling a long-range strategy to tap what it views as a sizeable, underpenetrated market.

The expansion plans come amid a broader tightening of regulatory oversight affecting prediction markets globally, with Polymarket and peers such as Kalshi facing increased scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions. Authorities in several regions have moved to curb or constrain access to these platforms, underscoring the compliance and licensing challenges inherent in cross-border operation.

Key takeaways

• Polymarket has named Mike Eidlin, the head of its Japan efforts at Jupiter, to spearhead a regulatory-entry push in Japan, with an aspirational timeline targeting 2030 for authorization, according to Bloomberg.
• Japan’s online betting regime is highly restrictive, permitting wagering only on select government-authorized activities such as horse racing and public lotteries, creating a substantial regulatory hurdle for prediction markets.
• Polymarket already maintains a prominent Japan-focused presence on social media, with a Tokyo-facing account amassing more than 53,000 followers, though the country remains within a roster of 35 restricted jurisdictions for the platform.
• Trading activity on Polymarket has cooled amid global regulatory pressure and rising competition from Kalshi, with notional volume dipping in recent months while Kalshi’s volume has risen.
• Global access to Polymarket has tightened, with about 34 countries blocking the platform and several others restricting access to “close-only” participation; India has stepped up enforcement against online betting platforms, signaling heightened regulatory risk for operators.

Polymarket’s Japan push: leadership, timelines, and regulatory strategy

Bloomberg’s reporting indicates that Polymarket has engaged a local executive to navigate Japan’s regulatory labyrinth and to lobby for formal authorization to offer prediction markets in the country. The appointment of Mike Eidlin—who previously led Polymarket’s Japan-focused operations—signals a deliberate, policy-oriented approach to market-entry that prioritizes licensing over rapid deployment. Polymarket publicly framed its objective as evaluating opportunities to expand access globally in ways that align with local rules, while acknowledging the complexity of obtaining regulatory approval in a jurisdiction with stringent gambling laws.

Industry observers note that achieving a formal green light in Japan would require a carefully designed compliance framework, licensing arrangements, and ongoing regulatory engagement. The 2030 target suggests a phased approach, likely beginning with pilot arrangements or restricted product offerings before any broader rollout. This strategy reflects a common pattern for cross-border entrants seeking to balance innovation with a robust regulatory posture in high-scrutiny markets.

Polymarket did not provide a response by publication time to requests for comment. The company’s efforts in Japan should be understood within a wider context of regulatory crosswinds affecting prediction markets, including U.S. and European discussions around licensing, consumer protections, and AML/KYC compliance standards. As noted in coverage surrounding the sector, the path to authorization in any jurisdiction is contingent on aligning product design, disclosure, and enforcement practices with local laws and regulatory expectations.

For context, Cointelegraph has highlighted that the sector is under tightening scrutiny, with enforcement actions and policy changes shaping how prediction markets operate and are accessed by users across borders. These regulatory dynamics underscore the importance of a careful, policy-driven approach to any expansion plan.

Japan’s gambling regime and market-entry hurdles

Japan imposes strict limits on online gambling, permitting wagering only on government-approved activities such as horse racing and public lotteries. This framework creates a formidable starting point for any platform seeking to host prediction-market-style products, which traditionally blur lines between gaming and forecasting.

Regulatory risk is further amplified by penalties associated with online betting violations. Recent enforcement trends and public reporting indicate that violations can attract fines and potential imprisonment for repeat offenses, underscoring the seriousness with which authorities treat online gambling and related activities.

Polymarket has acknowledged “meaningful organic interest from users” in Japan and across Asia, while reiterating its commitment to expanding access in ways that are compliant and locally appropriate. The country’s regulatory posture suggests that any entry will require significant adaptation to product design, risk controls, and licensing requirements to meet local standards. Additionally, Polymarket’s country-access policy lists Japan among 35 restricted jurisdictions, including the United States, indicating a cautious stance toward direct participation from certain regions. Past reporting also suggested that users in restricted regions may access the platform via circumventions such as VPNs, highlighting ongoing enforcement and the broader challenges of cross-border compliance.

In terms of market visibility, Polymarket’s Japan-focused social media presence—measured by follower count on X (formerly Twitter)—is notable, with the account reportedly exceeding 53,000 followers. This level of digital engagement operates as a signal of interest but does not substitute for regulatory authorization, licensing, or consumer-protection compliance in the local market.

Global regulatory pressure and market dynamics for prediction platforms

Polymarket’s trading volumes have faced headwinds as scrutiny over prediction markets has intensified. Data from market analytics platforms show a decline in Polymarket’s monthly notional trading volume in recent periods, contrasted with a rising trajectory for rival Kalshi. This divergence reflects a broader shift in the competitive and regulatory landscape, where operators contend with both enforcement actions and evolving licensing regimes across jurisdictions.

Access restrictions have grown more pervasive on a global basis. Start Polymarket tracks a roster of roughly 34 blocked countries, with additional markets applying “close-only” restrictions that limit participation in certain product categories. Meanwhile, India has emerged as a focal point of regulatory action, with authorities reportedly preparing blocking orders against Kalshi following earlier steps against Polymarket, signaling a heightened enforcement posture in one of the world’s fastest-growing digital markets.

These enforcement and market-structure dynamics have important implications for banks, exchanges, and institutional users. The need for robust KYC/AML controls, licensing compliance, and cross-border regulatory coordination becomes central to any platform seeking to operate internationally. For jurisdictions contemplating new regimes, the policy alignment considerations extend to licensing pathways, data-sharing arrangements, and compliance monitoring frameworks that can withstand multijurisdictional scrutiny.

From a policy and historical context, the broader debate around prediction markets continues to intersect with legitimate concerns about consumer protection, market integrity, and the potential for harmful use cases. Regulators are weighing how to balance innovation with safeguards, a calculus that directly affects how platforms design products, obtain licenses, and interact with financial and gaming authorities. As this sector evolves, institutional readers should monitor developments in major markets, including potential regulatory milestones in Japan, the United States, and the European Union, where ongoing discussions around licensing and cross-border access could redefine operating models for prediction markets.

Looking ahead, policymakers and industry participants will need to navigate a complex mix of jurisdiction-specific licensing requirements, AML/KYC standards, and consumer-protection regimes. The trajectory of Polymarket’s efforts in Japan, combined with ongoing global enforcement activity, suggests that the next several years will bring continued regulatory clarity—and potential restrictions—that will shape how prediction markets operate within compliant, bankable, and institutionally acceptable frameworks.

Closing perspective: as regulatory expectations sharpen, the feasibility of a major, globally accessible prediction-market footprint hinges on disciplined licensing, rigorous compliance, and transparent product governance. The 2030 timeline for Japan remains contingent on legal developments, regulatory alignment, and the ability of the operator to demonstrate robust safeguards and enforceable user protections in a highly regulated environment.