CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 2085.44, down 0.0% (-0.18) since 4 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Fourteen of the 20 assets are trading higher.

Leaders: NEAR (+19.4%) and ICP (+4.3%).

Laggards: SUI (-2.6%) and XRP (-1.0%).

The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), the parent company of Truth Social, has transferred another 2,650 bitcoin BTC$77,457.54 to Crypto.com in a move that is likely to intensify scrutiny of the company’s struggling cryptocurrency strategy.

At current market prices, the transfer is worth roughly $205 million, with bitcoin trading at approximately $77,341 per token. Blockchain data shows the deposit occurred during late U.S. evening hours, according to Lookonchain, marking the latest significant movement in the company’s digital asset holdings.

Trump Media originally purchased 11,542 BTC for approximately $1.37 billion at an average acquisition price of $118,522 per bitcoin. The latest transfer follows an earlier move four months ago, when the company shifted out 2,000 BTC valued at roughly $175 million at the time, with bitcoin trading near $87,378.

Following the newest transaction, Trump Media is now estimated to be down roughly $455 million on its bitcoin holdings as the cryptocurrency continues to trade well below the company’s average purchase price.

The latest crypto transfer comes just days after Trump Media withdrew its application for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, raising fresh questions about the company’s ambitions in the increasingly crowded crypto investment market. ETF analysts said the decision appeared to be driven less by structural or regulatory concerns and more by deteriorating economics across the spot bitcoin ETF sector.

The company’s financial results have also come under pressure from its aggressive cryptocurrency positioning. In May, Trump Media reported a staggering first-quarter net loss of $405.9 million on just $871,200 in revenue, widening sharply from a $31.7 million loss reported during the same period a year earlier.

Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies and co-founder of Fundstrat, does not expect the coming wave of mega IPOs to derail markets even if they could eclipse the entire dot-com boom in scale.

Lee recently discussed the potential effect of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI listing which could unleash trillions of dollars in new equity supply into public markets.

In inflation adjusted terms, Elon Musk’s SpaceX alone could become the second largest IPO ever, seeking a market valuation above $1.5 trillion, behind only Saudi Aramco.

Lee acknowledged concerns about the amount of supply these listings could introduce into public markets, especially after the standard 90-day lock-up periods expire. He noted that SpaceX is likely the most anticipated IPO ever, Lee estimates the three IPOs could generate trillions in supply, equivalent to roughly 5% to 6% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization.

Despite the scale, Lee does not believe the situation is necessarily outright bearish for the markets. He argues that family offices, pensions, and high net worth investors currently hold historically low allocations to public equities after years of favoring private markets and alternative investments.

There is significant capital available to absorb the liquidity as allocations rotate back toward U.S. public stocks, in Lee’s view.

He also expects many early investors to hedge or borrow against holdings rather than immediately sell and trigger large tax events.

Lee also discussed cryptocurrency’s underperformance against expectations despite growing institutional interest, highlighting how instant settlement and transaction verification are driving Wall Street’s push towards tokenisation, a point he previously made at Consensus Miami 2026.

Furthermore, Lee believes blockchain could provide a neutral framework for identity verification in an AI driven world. Banks are increasingly circling the industry because they recognize the significant revenue opportunities emerging from the convergence of crypto, AI, and finance, he added.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, and OKX announced Friday that they are joining forces to roll out perpetual oil futures.

In a joint statement, the firms’ said ICE’s futures prices for Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will bolster the new perpetual contracts on OKX.

The new perpetual contracts based on ICE’s data will open energy benchmark product access to OKX’s 120 million retail traders, said Trabue Bland, senior vice president of futures exchanges at ICE.

The new contracts will be available on OKX, in which ICE holds a stake, across territories where the crypto company is already licensed to offer perpetual futures.

“Oil markets are critical to the world economy,” Haider Rafique, global managing partner at OKX, said in the statement. Bringing ICE’s benchmarks “into regulated perpetual futures is exactly the kind of bridge between traditional and digital markets that market participants have been asking for.”

The ICE and OKX foray into oil perps comes as Hyperliquid’s oil futures contracts that never expire have proven to be a tremendous success, consistently generating roughly $1.6 billion in daily trading volume and more than $1.3 billion in open interest.

Perpetual futures, also known as “perps,” are a type of derivative contract that give traders the ability to bet on prices of assets such as oil or bitcoin. But unlike traditional futures, perps never expire, so traders don’t have to take possession of physical barrels of oil or roll over those contracts.

Most perpetual products are offered on offshore exchanges and are not regulated the same way traditional commodity exchanges such as ICE and CME Group Inc. are in the U.S., but Michael Selig, the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), recently said he will bring them under his agency’s oversight soon.

In a sign of the increasing confluence of crypto and traditional financial (TradFi) firms, ICE and OKX signed a deal in March to build technology, including blockchain networks, that would give ICE’s customers access to crypto-based futures and OKX customers the ability to trade tokenized securities on NYSE’s platform. ICE also made a strategic investment valuing the San Jose, California-based company at $25 billion.

Polymarket confirmed a security exploit affected part of its infrastructure, pointing to a possible private key compromise involving a wallet used for top-up operations, while saying user funds and market resolution were safe.

In a Friday X post, Polymarket developers said contracts and core infrastructure were unaffected. Polymarket product lead Akanshu Jain and multiple other Polymarket employees also said user funds and market resolution are safe.

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT first flagged the exploit as a compromise to the Polymarket-linked UMA Conditional Tokens Framework (CTF) Adapter contract on Polygon, with the exploiter draining at least $520,000.

However, Josh Stevens, Polymarket’s vice president of engineering, said the contracts were safe and that the exploit was limited to a six-year-old private key used for internal top-up operations. All permissions tied to the key have been revoked, he said.

The UMA CTF adapter is an oracle contract used to help resolve Polymarket prediction markets through UMA’s Optimistic Oracle. Polymarket is the world’s second-largest prediction market with $3.7 billion in monthly trading volume, according to DefiLlama. 

Polyscan data reviewed by Cointelegraph showed more than 100 small transfers into the alleged attacker wallet. Most were worth up to 5,000 Polygon (POL) tokens.

Address of the alleged Polymarket adapter contract attacker. Source: Polygonscan

Exploit losses climb past $600,000

Multiple blockchain data platforms reported similar onchain activity tied to the suspected exploit.

Blockchain data visualization platform Bubblemaps said in a Friday X post that the attacker continues to remove about 5,000 POL tokens every 30 seconds, amassing about $600,000 in stolen funds so far.

Source: Bubblemaps

Blockchain data platform Lookonchain estimated that about $660,000 was drained from the Polymarket-linked contract as of 9:01 am UTC on Friday.

Related: Crypto VC funding plunges to $659M in April, hits near two-year low

Polymarket integrated UMA’s optimistic oracle solution on Feb. 3, 2022, enabling automated and decentralized resolution for its prediction market contracts.

Cointelegraph contacted Polymarket and UMA for comment but had not received a response by publication.

Magazine: The legal battle over who can claim DeFi’s stolen millions 

Polymarket, a global prediction market platform, is pursuing a launch in Japan as regulators worldwide tighten scrutiny of the sector. Bloomberg reported that Polymarket has appointed Mike Eidlin—formerly the head of Japan at crypto firm Jupiter—to lead its local efforts and to push for regulatory authorization to operate prediction markets in the country. The company is aiming for government approval by 2030, signaling a long-range strategy to tap what it views as a sizeable, underpenetrated market.

The expansion plans come amid a broader tightening of regulatory oversight affecting prediction markets globally, with Polymarket and peers such as Kalshi facing increased scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions. Authorities in several regions have moved to curb or constrain access to these platforms, underscoring the compliance and licensing challenges inherent in cross-border operation.

Key takeaways

• Polymarket has named Mike Eidlin, the head of its Japan efforts at Jupiter, to spearhead a regulatory-entry push in Japan, with an aspirational timeline targeting 2030 for authorization, according to Bloomberg.
• Japan’s online betting regime is highly restrictive, permitting wagering only on select government-authorized activities such as horse racing and public lotteries, creating a substantial regulatory hurdle for prediction markets.
• Polymarket already maintains a prominent Japan-focused presence on social media, with a Tokyo-facing account amassing more than 53,000 followers, though the country remains within a roster of 35 restricted jurisdictions for the platform.
• Trading activity on Polymarket has cooled amid global regulatory pressure and rising competition from Kalshi, with notional volume dipping in recent months while Kalshi’s volume has risen.
• Global access to Polymarket has tightened, with about 34 countries blocking the platform and several others restricting access to “close-only” participation; India has stepped up enforcement against online betting platforms, signaling heightened regulatory risk for operators.

Polymarket’s Japan push: leadership, timelines, and regulatory strategy

Bloomberg’s reporting indicates that Polymarket has engaged a local executive to navigate Japan’s regulatory labyrinth and to lobby for formal authorization to offer prediction markets in the country. The appointment of Mike Eidlin—who previously led Polymarket’s Japan-focused operations—signals a deliberate, policy-oriented approach to market-entry that prioritizes licensing over rapid deployment. Polymarket publicly framed its objective as evaluating opportunities to expand access globally in ways that align with local rules, while acknowledging the complexity of obtaining regulatory approval in a jurisdiction with stringent gambling laws.

Industry observers note that achieving a formal green light in Japan would require a carefully designed compliance framework, licensing arrangements, and ongoing regulatory engagement. The 2030 target suggests a phased approach, likely beginning with pilot arrangements or restricted product offerings before any broader rollout. This strategy reflects a common pattern for cross-border entrants seeking to balance innovation with a robust regulatory posture in high-scrutiny markets.

Polymarket did not provide a response by publication time to requests for comment. The company’s efforts in Japan should be understood within a wider context of regulatory crosswinds affecting prediction markets, including U.S. and European discussions around licensing, consumer protections, and AML/KYC compliance standards. As noted in coverage surrounding the sector, the path to authorization in any jurisdiction is contingent on aligning product design, disclosure, and enforcement practices with local laws and regulatory expectations.

For context, Cointelegraph has highlighted that the sector is under tightening scrutiny, with enforcement actions and policy changes shaping how prediction markets operate and are accessed by users across borders. These regulatory dynamics underscore the importance of a careful, policy-driven approach to any expansion plan.

Japan’s gambling regime and market-entry hurdles

Japan imposes strict limits on online gambling, permitting wagering only on government-approved activities such as horse racing and public lotteries. This framework creates a formidable starting point for any platform seeking to host prediction-market-style products, which traditionally blur lines between gaming and forecasting.

Regulatory risk is further amplified by penalties associated with online betting violations. Recent enforcement trends and public reporting indicate that violations can attract fines and potential imprisonment for repeat offenses, underscoring the seriousness with which authorities treat online gambling and related activities.

Polymarket has acknowledged “meaningful organic interest from users” in Japan and across Asia, while reiterating its commitment to expanding access in ways that are compliant and locally appropriate. The country’s regulatory posture suggests that any entry will require significant adaptation to product design, risk controls, and licensing requirements to meet local standards. Additionally, Polymarket’s country-access policy lists Japan among 35 restricted jurisdictions, including the United States, indicating a cautious stance toward direct participation from certain regions. Past reporting also suggested that users in restricted regions may access the platform via circumventions such as VPNs, highlighting ongoing enforcement and the broader challenges of cross-border compliance.

In terms of market visibility, Polymarket’s Japan-focused social media presence—measured by follower count on X (formerly Twitter)—is notable, with the account reportedly exceeding 53,000 followers. This level of digital engagement operates as a signal of interest but does not substitute for regulatory authorization, licensing, or consumer-protection compliance in the local market.

Global regulatory pressure and market dynamics for prediction platforms

Polymarket’s trading volumes have faced headwinds as scrutiny over prediction markets has intensified. Data from market analytics platforms show a decline in Polymarket’s monthly notional trading volume in recent periods, contrasted with a rising trajectory for rival Kalshi. This divergence reflects a broader shift in the competitive and regulatory landscape, where operators contend with both enforcement actions and evolving licensing regimes across jurisdictions.

Access restrictions have grown more pervasive on a global basis. Start Polymarket tracks a roster of roughly 34 blocked countries, with additional markets applying “close-only” restrictions that limit participation in certain product categories. Meanwhile, India has emerged as a focal point of regulatory action, with authorities reportedly preparing blocking orders against Kalshi following earlier steps against Polymarket, signaling a heightened enforcement posture in one of the world’s fastest-growing digital markets.

These enforcement and market-structure dynamics have important implications for banks, exchanges, and institutional users. The need for robust KYC/AML controls, licensing compliance, and cross-border regulatory coordination becomes central to any platform seeking to operate internationally. For jurisdictions contemplating new regimes, the policy alignment considerations extend to licensing pathways, data-sharing arrangements, and compliance monitoring frameworks that can withstand multijurisdictional scrutiny.

From a policy and historical context, the broader debate around prediction markets continues to intersect with legitimate concerns about consumer protection, market integrity, and the potential for harmful use cases. Regulators are weighing how to balance innovation with safeguards, a calculus that directly affects how platforms design products, obtain licenses, and interact with financial and gaming authorities. As this sector evolves, institutional readers should monitor developments in major markets, including potential regulatory milestones in Japan, the United States, and the European Union, where ongoing discussions around licensing and cross-border access could redefine operating models for prediction markets.

Looking ahead, policymakers and industry participants will need to navigate a complex mix of jurisdiction-specific licensing requirements, AML/KYC standards, and consumer-protection regimes. The trajectory of Polymarket’s efforts in Japan, combined with ongoing global enforcement activity, suggests that the next several years will bring continued regulatory clarity—and potential restrictions—that will shape how prediction markets operate within compliant, bankable, and institutionally acceptable frameworks.

Closing perspective: as regulatory expectations sharpen, the feasibility of a major, globally accessible prediction-market footprint hinges on disciplined licensing, rigorous compliance, and transparent product governance. The 2030 timeline for Japan remains contingent on legal developments, regulatory alignment, and the ability of the operator to demonstrate robust safeguards and enforceable user protections in a highly regulated environment.

XRP Ledger has seen a spike in new addresses over the last 24 hours, but overhead resistance at $1.40 kept the XRP (XRP) price in check.

Key takeaways:

• XRP Ledger added 4,300 new wallets in 24 hours, marking the fourth-largest growth spike on the network in 2026.
• XRP price recovery may face resistance at $1.40, with a prolonged consolidation likely.

XRP Ledger sees fourth-largest growth spike in 2026

The XRP Ledger recorded one of its strongest growth surges of the year after adding 4,300 new wallets within 24 hours, the “fourth largest spike of 2026,” according to Santiment.

Related: XRP price may explode to $15 amid ‘quiet accumulation,’ analyst claims

The chart below shows that newly created XRP wallets increased to 4,300 on May 20, from about 2,500 on May 19. Similarly, daily active addresses increased to 43,520 from 32,000 over the same period.

“XRP is seeing one of its largest network growth stretches of the year,” the market intelligence firm said in a Thursday post on X, adding: 

“Network growth is among the top leading signals to identify reversals.”

XRP Ledger active addresses and network growth. Source: Santiment

“When wallets rise like this, smart money pays attention,” analyst Amonyx commented, adding:

“$XRP reversal signal?”

Fellow analyst Niroshan682 said new wallet creation is often an “early signal of new network participation,” especially when it happens alongside growing institutional adoption and rising ETF inflows.

US-based spot XRP ETFs held about 1.34% of the XRP total supply after this month’s inflows. About $107.3 million worth of XRP ETFs flowed in May so far, with the $8.8 million in net inflows on Thursday marking the 12th straight day of positive flows.

This streak has pushed cumulative inflows to nearly $1.4 billion and assets under management (AUM) to $1.15 billion.

Spot XRP ETF flows chart. Source: SoSoValue

Despite these positive fundamentals, XRP/USD is down 1.5% over the last 24 hours, and remains 62% below its $3.66 multi-year high reached in July 2025. 

XRP faces stiff overhead resistance

XRP’s latest 21% rally from the local low at $1.27 reached on April 5 stalled at $1.55, coinciding with the upper limit of a range that has capped its price action since early February. 

Bulls must push the price above the $1.40-$1.55 resistance zone to confirm a breakout from consolidation. This area is also defined by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the 100-day SMA and the 100-day exponential moving average, as shown in the chart below.

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

According to XRP’s cost-basis distribution data, investors hold approximately 3.75 billion XRP at an average cost of $1.37-$1.45, creating a potential resistance zone. 

This concentration suggests many investors may sell at break-even, potentially stalling XRP’s upward momentum.

XRP cost basis distribution chart. Source: Glassnode

Another supply congestion zone is higher up at $1.68-$1.70, where investors bought approximately 3.8 billion XRP. This level coincides with the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, which is setting up the XRP/USD pair for a breakout, according to analyst Crypto Michael. 

Note that a weekly close above the wedge’s upper trend line could open the way for a rally toward the measured target at $3.52, about 50% above the current price. 

XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: Crypto Michael. 

As Cointelegraph reported, buyers will have to push XRP/USD above the multi-month trend line at $1.40 to signal a comeback, while a close above $1.61 would confirm a potential trend change. 

The current state of financial markets is best described as macro-geopolitics first, crypto second.

The evidence is clear. Despite recent positive regulatory developments related to the Clarity Act, bitcoin BTC$77,349.71 has shown little excitement, trading near $77,200 – largely unchanged over the past 24 hours and for the week.

Meanwhile, oil remains elevated near $100 and speculative capital is pouring into copper amid fears of a sulfur shortage. The connection? Copper production is heavily dependent on sulfuric acid, whose supply has been disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz.

In essence, everything is revolving around Hormuz, driving commodity flows and prices higher, stoking inflation fears, lifting bond yields, which are supposedly weighing over crypto. The U.S. stocks, meanwhile, hover near record highs, driven by AI optimism.

Bitcoin is not at the center of this geo-economic and AI repricing.

It is no surprise, therefore, that U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs continue to bleed, recording $1.15 billion in outflows this week after $1 billion last week, according to SoSoValue. The Coinbase premium, a key gauge of U.S. demand relative to the rest of the world, has hit monthly lows.

Analysts have repeatedly emphasized that these indicators need marked improvement before a sustained rally can take hold. The question is whether that will happen while markets remain fixated on geopolitics and AI.

In the meantime, certain corners of the crypto market, particularly on-chain perpetuals and quantum-resistant tokens, continue to show strength, driven by specific news and narratives, as we discussed Thursday. Layer-1 blockchain Near Protocol’s token (NEAR) is the latest addition to that group, surging over 25% in the past 24 hours following the announcement of a major upgrade focused on automated scaling and quantum resilience.

In traditional markets, Nasdaq futures have surrendered early gains and are trading largely flat. Analysts remain broadly bullish on stocks following the latest earnings season. Stay alert.

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

Today’s signal

HYPE’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged above 70. While readings above 70 are widely labeled as “overbought,” this interpretation is often misleading.

The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. A reading above 70 simply signals strong bullish momentum and suggests that the uptrend may still have room to run. It does not automatically mean the asset is overvalued or due for an imminent reversal, as the popular narrative often implies.

In strong trending markets, RSI can remain elevated for extended periods without triggering a meaningful pullback.