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Prediction Market Open Interest Crosses $1B as Super Bowl Boosts Bets

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Volume across Polymarket and Kalshi hit $400 million for the first time, with sports and political markets drawing nearly all the liquidity.

Open interest (OI) across crypto prediction markets just hit $1 billion for the first time, a surge likely fueled by increased activity around the 2026 Super Bowl.

According to data from Artemis, open interest across platforms, Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Opinion, and others, jumped above $1.1 billion for the first time on Feb. 7, setting a new all-time high. OI indicates the value of all currently active positions — in this case, the “yes” or “no” positions across predictions — that have yet to be resolved, making it an indicator of capital inflow and liquidity.

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Open interest across prediction markets. Source: Artemis

As for spot volume, it also reached a new historic record of $1.4 billion across platforms, with Kalshi generating $800 million and Polymarket about $311 million on Super Bowl Sunday, Feb. 8, Artemis data shows.

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Capital allocation on prediction markets. Source: Paradigm

Digging into sectors where users placed the most bets, sports led with $375.3 million, while politics was close behind at $359.7 million, and culture trails at $84.5 million, according to data from crypto venture capital firm Paradigm’s new dashboard, which tracks liquidity across sectors on Polymarket and Kalshi, the two largest marketplaces by OI and trading volume.

But the growing interest in placing bets on real-world outcomes doesn’t come without risks. In a recent report, analysts at blockchain security firm CertiK warned that despite the surge, prediction markets are still exposed to security risks like oracle attacks, admin key vulnerabilities and front-running.

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The firm also warned that artificial volume on prediction markets reached 60% on some platforms “during airdrop farming peaks, distorting liquidity metrics, while probability outputs remained reliable for forecasting.”

The spike in prediction market OI coincided with news that Jump Trading, a high-frequency trading firm, is reportedly set to gain small stakes in both Kalshi and Polymarket in exchange for providing liquidity, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 9, citing sources familiar with the matter.

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Charles Schwab Announces Rollout of Spot BTC and ETH Trading for Retail Clients

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Charles Schwab Announces Rollout of Spot BTC and ETH Trading for Retail Clients

The $12 trillion brokerage will begin a phased rollout of Schwab Crypto, offering direct spot BTC and ETH trading to retail investors in the coming weeks.

Charles Schwab announced the planned launch of its spot crypto trading platform, Schwab Crypto, in a press release today, April 16. The platform offers Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) trading to Schwab’s retail clients from within the existing platform, alongside traditional investments.

The phased rollout of the platform begins in the coming weeks, and will let Schwab’s existing brokerage customers buy and hold BTC and ETH directly within their accounts, without leaving the platform. Trading will be priced at 75 basis points, per the release. The platform will also provide educational content and analysis.

Schwab first announced that it would offer retail crypto trading a year ago, stating at the time that the platform would by mid-April 2026.

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The move marks a strategic shift from Schwab’s previous indirect crypto exposure through ETFs, funds, and derivatives.

In today’s release, Schwab said that it plans to add more cryptocurrencies to the platform in the future. The brokerage also noted that it plans to enable deposits and withdrawals in the future, implying that the current product only allows for crypto buying and selling within Schwab platform.

Charles Schwab Premier Bank, SSB, (CSPB) will provide crypto custody for clients, while the bank has tapped Paxos for trade execution services and sub-custody, per the release.

“With Schwab Crypto, investors can access familiar cryptocurrencies within an all‑in‑one investing and banking experience, backed by an ecosystem of education, tools, resources, and support so they can make informed decisions about how crypto might fit into their broader investing goals,” Schwab’s head of digital assets, Joe Vietri, was quoted as saying in the release.

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Last November, U.S. neobank SoFi re-launched its spot crypto trading product, making it the first U.S. FDIC-insured and nationally chartered bank offering retail clients crypto trading alongside its traditional banking and investing services.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

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Bitcoin Set To Sync With Stocks, Possibly Chasing New Range Highs

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Bitcoin Set To Sync With Stocks, Possibly Chasing New Range Highs

Bitcoin (BTC) treaded water at Thursday’s Wall Street open as the S&P 500 reached new all-time highs.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin stays locked on $74,000 after its local highs preceded a new record for the S&P 500.

  • Analysis warns that the US midterm elections may impact the stock rally.

  • Bitcoin could follow the Nasdaq 100 higher, a trader suggests.

BTC price tripped after fresh highs from the S&P 500

Data from TradingView showed $74,000 continuing to form an intraday BTC price focus.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US jobless claims came in marginally below expectations at 207,000 versus 213,000, pointing to the labor market withstanding current geopolitical and inflation pressures.

These followed a new record for the S&P 500, which crossed 7,000 points for the first time in history after Bitcoin hit two-month highs.

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Commenting, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted that the S&P had advanced by nearly 11% in the past 11 trading sessions.

“It ranks as the fifth quickest recovery to record highs following a deep pullback,” it wrote in its latest “Mosaic Chart Alerts” update. 

“The S&P closed firmly above the 7,000 level for the first time in history despite the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East that sparked a 9% drawdown in the index into late March.”

S&P 500 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Gold dipped to intraday lows and WTI crude oil eyed $94 per barrel as markets awaited further cues over the US-Iran war.

QCP, meanwhile, warned that seasonal trends could still end the stock rally as the US entered midterm elections. The S&P 500, it noted, “tends to find its peak about now ahead of mid-term elections, and then recovering during the final quarter of the year.”

“I would not base any investment decision or outlook based on seasonals alone, which is why I’m also watching confirmation from breadth,” it cautioned.

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S&P 500 seasonality data. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

Trader sees “opportunity” in Bitcoin versus Nasdaq

With BTC price action finding resistance near its range highs, market participants eyed exchange order-book liquidity for clues as to where the next showdown could come.

Related: Bitcoin can grow ‘probably a lot bigger’ than $30T+ gold market — Analysis

“The price bucket at $72.2K – 72.4K has a large amount of open interest that has slowly accumulated,” Shubh Varma, CEO of crypto data platform Hyblock, told Cointelegraph on the day.

“We’ve seen this level where traders are often active, entering and exiting. Most recently, about $100 million longs and shorts opened here, bringing the total close to $400 million at that price bucket, over the last seven days (on Binance stablecoin perps).”

Varma added that this could form “an area to watch as potential support if price revisits it, as many of these longs and shorts may exit at breakeven ‘psychological’ level.”

BTC/USDT perpetual contract open interest data. Source: Hyblock

Continuing the stocks theme, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe flagged Bitcoin’s relationship with the Nasdaq-100 index as a cause for optimism going forward.

“Bitcoin is about to follow Nasdaq,” he told X followers. 

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“The reason for this is quite simple: the correlation has been significantly strong most of the time. This period? The weakest correlation in the past 10 years.”

BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq 100 futures one-week chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Van de Poppe eyed a “tremendous opportunity” for Bitcoin buyers, having recently seen a similar bullish setup in Bitcoin versus gold.