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Putting the bitcoin sizing question to the test

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What this year's $972M crypto hacks actually tell us about security

What the regimes reveal

Splitting the window into bull, bear and sideways markets by the 200-day moving average sharpens the picture considerably. In bull regimes both approaches beat the plain 60/40, though the trend version retained much of the upside on a more controlled path. Bear regimes produced the widest gap. Spot exposure transmitted more of crypto’s drawdown into the broader portfolio, while the trend sleeve, designed to step away from persistent downtrends, kept losses shallower and the ride more survivable.

Sideways markets deserve more attention than they usually receive. Range-bound conditions, where prices churn without a clear direction, offer no strong trend to reward conviction and no clean rebound to rescue poor timing. Through those stretches, direct bitcoin exposure struggled to justify its added volatility, while the rules-based sleeve had a better chance of avoiding risk without reward. Real portfolios spend a great deal of time in exactly these noisy, indecisive transitions.

The forward case

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Three structural forces will shape how these choices play out. The post-ETF market is more flow-sensitive, so demand shocks travel quickly and can amplify both trends and reversals. Supply growth is anchored by the 2024 halving and will keep shrinking. Regulatory clarity in major jurisdictions continues to separate investible projects from speculative noise, raising the premium on transparent benchmarks and institutional-grade products.

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Eliza Labs' Shaw Walters Says ai16z Token Is 'Dead' After Settling Burwick Law Class Action

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Eliza Labs' Shaw Walters Says ai16z Token Is 'Dead' After Settling Burwick Law Class Action


Eliza Labs founder Shaw Walters said the ai16z token is "dead. Completely." and that the foundation behind it is winding down, after his side settled a class action brought by Burwick Law by handing over "the rest of the treasury and all the money we had." "Burwick sued us and we settled with a… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Coldcard hack could lift demand for regulated bitcoin products, analysts say

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OpenClaw GitHub phishing scam uses fake $5,000 token airdrops gain wallet access

The exploit, which researchers say stemmed from a flaw in the wallet’s firmware, has resulted in at least 1,816 bitcoin, worth about $114 million, being drained from more than 5,200 addresses since July 30, underscoring the risks even self-custodied assets face when wallet security is compromised.

FRNT Financial echoed that view, saying the exploit exposed a key tradeoff in self-custody. While many bitcoin holders prefer to control their own assets, they still place their trust in the hardware and software used to generate private keys.

“The reaction within the BTC community to the exploit was one of heartbreak,” FRNT wrote in a Wednesday report, noting many affected users had followed long-standing best practices around self-custody.

The firm compared the incident to the 2023 “Milk Sad” exploit, in which flawed key generation led to the theft of roughly $900,000 in digital assets. Rather than undermining self-custody altogether, FRNT said it expects the latest breach to spur wallet providers to strengthen their products as users demand greater security assurances.

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For investors unwilling to accept the operational risks of managing private keys, the growing availability of spot bitcoin ETFs provides an increasingly attractive alternative, FRNT said.

Read more: Coldcard hack sparks a self-custody security overhaul: Cory Klippsten

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Disgraced FTX claims broker is now soliciting Coldcard victims

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Disgraced FTX claims broker is now soliciting Coldcard victims

Thousands of victims of the Coldcard bitcoin wallet hack have been approached to join a legal action against the device’s maker by an FTX claims broker who reportedly stole $1.9 million from another corporate receivership.

According to Galaxy Research, 1,596 BTC has been stolen from roughly 7,300 Coldcard addresses since July 30. That confirmed haul already exceeds $100 million, and a suspected fourth wave of hacks could push it past $130 million.

Thomas Braziel, who now runs distressed claims company 117 Partners, posted an appeal to Coldcard victims on social media which read, “If you were affected by the COLDCARD firmware vulnerability and lost bitcoin, please DM me.”

Two days later, he published a legal update, talking up plans for a legal action with 10-30 claimants. He also steered victims into a Telegram channel to keep communications private.

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Read more: 15 attackers now draining vulnerable Coldcard wallets, report

No knight in shining armor for Coldcard victims

In 2016, the Delaware Court of Chancery appointed Braziel receiver of Fund.com after the court had entered a default judgment against that company.

The order tasked Braziel with liquidating Fund.com and distributing proceeds to its investors — a process that would take several years.

By 2024, however, the court determined that “Braziel manufactured alternative versions of the account statements” of Fund.com and “created falsified versions of the company’s bank records.”

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The court also concluded that its special magistrate’s report “appropriately compared Braziel’s conduct to the elements of criminal offenses for the purpose of measuring whether Braziel’s actions were sufficiently egregious.”

In that memorandum opinion, a vice chancellor (the name for judges in this Delaware court) removed Braziel as a corporate receiver and ordered him to repay $1,945,063.

Braziel’s own lawyers told the court, “By and large, Braziel accepts the report’s extensive factual and legal findings. He further acknowledges and agrees to reimburse the company for the expense of the special [magistrate’s] investigation.”

Braziel asserted his Fifth Amendment privilege more than 500 times in deposition, though Vice Chancellor J. Travis Laster was careful to add, “Nor has the court purported to convict the receiver of any crimes.”

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No prosecutor or securities regulator charged him with any crime, and Braziel paid his restitution.

There are many other lawyers and bankruptcy professionals trying to solicit Coldcard victims. Protos has already warned victims about unsolicited legal outreach.

Coldcard manufacturer Coinkite is a bootstrapped Toronto company and its terms of sale for hardware wallets route disputes into arbitration under Ontario’s Arbitration Act of 1991 — a structural problem for proposed lawsuits.

Attorney Ariel Givner observed on August 2 that those terms “heavily disclaim warranties, limit liability to the device purchase price, and exclude consequential damages” for victims of Coldcard hackers. 

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Elon Musk Grok AI Just Predicts the Bottom for Bitcoin, Here’s the Number

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Elon Musk Grok AI Just Predicts the Bottom for Bitcoin, Here’s the Number

Grok AI predicts a bottom is already in for Bitcoin, and this price prediction puts the number right up front. From today’s roughly $64,200, the bull case runs to $120,000 to $150,000 or higher by the end of 2026.

The argument starts with supply mechanics rather than sentiment. The 2024 halving locked daily issuance at approximately 450 BTC, while ETFs, corporate treasuries led by Strategy and its peers still accumulating, pensions, and wealth platforms all create persistent demand that routinely outpaces new supply.

Long term holders now control more than 80% of circulating coins, and exchange inventories keep shrinking, meaning less Bitcoin is available to sell at any given moment. Grok stacks several catalysts specifically for the second half of the year.

Source: Grok AI Bitcoin Price Prediction

The CLARITY Act or equivalent market structure legislation would unlock broader institutional and pension access while cementing Bitcoin’s commodity status. A Fed pivot toward rate cuts or general liquidity easing would reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non yielding asset like Bitcoin.

Formalization of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, plus copycat sovereign buying from other nations, adds a geopolitical dimension. Continued BlackRock and Fidelity led ETF inflows reversing this year’s outflows, expanding access through 401k and RIA model portfolios, and broader dollar debasement tailwinds round out the list.

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Grok points to historical post halving windows combined with what it calls this new institutional era as support for a retest of the $126,000 October 2025 all time high and a push into the $120,000 to $150,000 zone, citing prior calls from Bernstein and Standard Chartered, JPMorgan’s fair value frameworks, and upside scenarios from VanEck and Citigroup.

Stretch targets go higher if multiple catalysts fire at once, though the bear case remains real. Prolonged high rates, stalled regulation, or renewed ETF outflows could keep price grinding between $50,000 and $75,000 into year end instead.

Bitcoin (BTC)
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Momentum Has Been Pinned To The Same Number For Ten Months

Bitcoin topped near $128,000 in October 2025, and the decline that followed was sharp, a near vertical drop through late January that took price from above $92,000 down to $60,000 in a matter of weeks. What came after was a slow, uneven recovery, a climb back to $82,000 by May, then a second sharp flush in June that dragged price down to retest that same $60,000 floor.

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Price closed today at $64,025, up 0.89%, in a session ranging between $63,270 and $64,360. Support sits at $60,000, the level defended in both February and June, then $52,000 below that if the floor finally gives way.

Resistance stacks first at $68,000, then $73,000, then the far heavier ceiling near $82,000 where the May rally already failed once. The signal line reads 49.91 against 50.38, a gap so thin it barely qualifies as one.

That is the real story on this chart. For ten months, momentum has hovered within a few points of the neutral 50 line, never building the kind of sustained push above 60 that usually accompanies a real trend change.

That is not the signature of a market that has already turned. It is the signature of one still deciding, and Grok’s case for $120,000 needs Bitcoin to clear $82,000, a level this chart has not touched since May, before any of it becomes more than a thesis.

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You Were Right About Bitcoin. It Just Didn’t Pay.

Every trader has had the same experience. You read the analysis, you form a view, the market proves you correct, and it makes you nothing.

The problem isn’t the call. It’s the instrument. When you buy spot to express a view about one thing, you take on exposure to everything: liquidity, sentiment, unrelated flows, whatever happens in an unrelated market at 3am.

Your opinion was about a single question. Your position is exposed to all of them at once.

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That’s what Kalshi is. A CFTC-regulated exchange where the prices are set by traders taking real positions, which is why the odds tend to move before the headlines do.

It isn’t free money. A contract that resolves against you goes to zero, and being directionally right on a slow timeline still loses if the contract expires first. Event trading pays for precision about timing, not just direction.

But the analysis above was free. What you do with it doesn’t have to be.

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Gold Climbs to Six-Week Highs on China Demand as Bitcoin Lags S&P 500

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin traded largely unchanged near the $64,000 level at the start of the Wall Street session on Wednesday, showing little follow-through despite a broad risk-on push in traditional markets. The muted action stood in contrast to gold’s renewed strength, as the precious metal climbed to its highest levels in about six weeks.

While US equities continued to build on recent record highs, investors appear to be treating Bitcoin more cautiously—at least for now—amid signals that have to line up before a durable rebound can take hold.

Key takeaways

  • BTC held steady around $64,000 as gold rose 2.8% to $4,213 per ounce, its highest since June 22.
  • Gold’s strength has been linked to Chinese demand, including reported inflows into China-based gold-backed ETFs.
  • US stocks maintained momentum, with the S&P 500 reaching 7,793 and a majority of constituents trading above their 50-day moving average.
  • Bitcoin’s recovery still appears contingent on multiple factors, including spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, easing bond yields, and fewer expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Gold regains footing as China demand returns to focus

Market data reviewed by TradingView pointed to a notable divergence: precious metals and US equities were advancing, while Bitcoin lacked directional momentum. Gold was a clear leader, gaining 2.8% to $4,213 per ounce—its highest level since June 22.

Bloomberg attributed the push higher to Chinese buying and reported 14 consecutive days of inflows for domestic gold-backed exchange-traded funds. The broader backdrop has also been shaped by the World Gold Council’s description of China ETF flows earlier this year: the organization’s data indicates June delivered the worst month of outflows on record, yet year-to-date inflows still stand at 40 billion yuan (about $5.6 billion). Even with June’s weakness, the first half remains the second-best on record for inflows.

The World Gold Council noted that demand has stayed resilient amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties, while ongoing purchases by the People’s Bank of China have offered additional support for sentiment. The organization cited central bank activity totaling 82 tonnes over the 20 months through June.

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US equities extend gains while Bitcoin lags

Risk assets in the US remained strong on the day. The S&P 500 pushed higher to 7,793, building on Tuesday’s all-time highs noted in earlier Cointelegraph coverage. That tone in equities came alongside a market breadth read from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who said 66% of S&P 500 stocks were above their 50-day moving average and 57% were outperforming a benchmark tracker.

For Bitcoin, the result was a second consecutive session of relative underperformance versus the optimism seen in US stocks. Instead of aligning with the day’s broader “buy the dip” behavior, BTC stayed pinned in a tight range, reinforcing the view that the market’s appetite for recovery is still fragile.

Analysis flags a recovery that needs several conditions to align

Bitcoin’s price action has largely centered on the $64,000 area on shorter time frames, with traders continuing to reference the broader “bear market” structure they believe is still in place. One of the more widely discussed technical themes comes from trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who argued that if the current support zone produces weaker rallies, BTC could form lower highs and eventually break down into the $58,000–$66,000 range.

On the fundamental and macro side, CryptoQuant’s research—published Tuesday—outlined three prerequisites it suggested for a more durable rebound: persistent inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs, cooling in US bond yields, and a reduced expectation of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. In other words, Bitcoin may need both crypto-specific demand and a friendlier macro environment to sustain momentum beyond short-lived relief moves.

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CryptoQuant also pointed to a market microstructure condition via the Coinbase Premium, which measures the price difference between Coinbase and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs. The firm said that metric also needed to return to positive territory, reiterating earlier analysis from June. Cointelegraph previously reported that the Coinbase Premium had been negative for nearly 80 days, and the latest framing maintains that this imbalance has not yet corrected.

What investors should watch next

For BTC, the near-term question is whether gold-driven risk hedging and equity strength can translate into sustained crypto demand—or whether Bitcoin remains constrained until ETF inflows, bond yields, and rate expectations shift in sync. Watch for evidence that the Coinbase Premium improves alongside any acceleration in US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, because multiple analysts now treat that combination as a prerequisite for a more credible recovery.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Arthur Hayes Says AI Bubble Could Make BTC Hit $1M

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In the latest Bitcoin news, Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, published a detailed macro framework on February 17 arguing that AI-driven white-collar job losses will ignite an AI credit crisis severe enough to force the Federal Reserve into large-scale money printing, and that Bitcoin, as the asset most directly wired to global fiat liquidity, will be the primary beneficiary, ultimately reaching a new all-time high and potentially hitting BTC $1 million.

The argument is not a simple bull take: Hayes frames two distinct scenarios and explicitly warns traders to keep leverage limited until the Fed shows its hand.

The analytical core of the Substack post, titled This Is Fine, is a quantitative model estimating the credit damage that a 20% reduction in US knowledge workers would inflict on commercial bank balance sheets.

Hayes uses Bureau of Labor Statistics data, putting the current knowledge worker population at 72.1 million out of a total working population of 164.5 million.

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Applying a 20% displacement scenario generates approximately $330 billion in consumer credit losses and $227 billion in mortgage losses, a combined $557 billion that, net of existing loan loss reserves, represents a 13% write-down of US commercial bank equity.

Thirteen percent sounds manageable in aggregate, but Hayes notes the distribution is the problem. The eight Too Big to Fail institutions are adequately capitalized; the thousands of smaller regional banks are not.

The market will identify the weakest balance sheets, crush their stock prices, trigger regulatory capital breaches, and spark depositor flight, a sequence Hayes compares directly to the regional bank collapses of early 2023, but at greater magnitude because the underlying cause is structural and irreversible rather than idiosyncratic.

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Bitcoin News: BTC as the Fiat Liquidity Fire Alarm

Hayes describes Bitcoin as “the global fiat liquidity fire alarm” and “the most responsive freely traded asset to the fiat credit supply.”

The divergence between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100, with Bitcoin declining sharply from its October 2025 all-time high while the Nasdaq held relatively flat, is, in his reading, not noise but signal: the market is already pricing the deflationary impact of AI job losses on consumer credit, even if the broader equity complex has not yet caught up.

The mechanism is familiar from 2008. Credit losses impair bank assets, weaker institutions approach insolvency, the Federal Reserve panics and initiates Federal Reserve money printing at scale, fiat liquidity surges, and Bitcoin reprices sharply higher.

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Hayes draws the historical parallel explicitly: a 20% near-term knowledge worker displacement is, by his calculation, roughly half as severe as the 2008 GFC credit event, which still required over a decade of monetary expansion to repair. The Fed’s response to an AI-driven crisis would logically be at least as aggressive.

What makes the AI version potentially faster and more disruptive than the China manufacturing shock of the 2000s is the nature of the work being automated. Blue-collar manufacturing jobs manipulate physical atoms; the displacement took decades.

Knowledge workers manipulate digital information, which AI tools can replicate at the speed of light. Hayes argues the pace of AI job losses will therefore compress dramatically relative to historical labor transitions, leaving less time for the credit system to absorb the shock gradually.

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The Fed’s Political Paralysis and the Two-Scenario Trade

Hayes does not expect the Fed to act preemptively. His read on the institution is that it requires a visible crisis, failed banks, frozen credit markets, and collapsing depositor confidence before it will override internal political resistance and press the liquidity button at the scale needed.

That delay is itself a risk factor for traders: the worse the initial credit-destruction event, the larger the eventual monetary response, and the more violent Bitcoin’s recovery from whatever lows it hits during the dislocation.

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This is where Hayes lays out the two-scenario structure that shapes the trade. Either Bitcoin’s drawdown from $126,000 to the low $60,000s was the full downside move and equities will eventually converge lower to confirm the macro thesis, or Bitcoin has further to fall as the credit crisis develops and stocks decline sharply.

Source: BTCUSD / Tradingview

Neither scenario supports adding leveraged exposure now. Hayes is explicit: wait for a confirmed Fed pivot before deploying aggressively into risk assets. For active traders tracking current Bitcoin technical levels, the implication is that the next major entry signal comes from the Fed’s balance sheet, not from price action alone.

Once the Fed does blink, Hayes said Maelstrom will deploy excess stablecoins into two specific altcoins: Zcash and Hyperliquid. The selection of Zcash is notable given Hayes’ prior public exit from ZEC following a protocol bug; the return to the position signals a reassessment.

Hyperliquid’s inclusion reflects the view that a surge in fiat liquidity benefits high-beta DeFi infrastructure with genuine revenue and usage metrics.

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SPCX down 11% after first public quarterly results

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SpaceX opens at $162 in blockbuster Nasdaq debut

JPMorgan, which raised its price target to $240 from $225, said it now expects the space company’s capital expenditures to reach nearly $200 billion in both 2027 and 2028, adding more pressure on free cash flow. “We now project capex of nearly $200 billion in both 2027 & 2028, which further pressures free cash flow in 2027, a trend we see across the hyperscalers,” the analysts wrote.

The bank also pointed to Thursday’s lock-up expiration, when 911.5 million shares could become eligible for sale, potentially increasing the public float by 143%, though it said much of the event may already be priced in because investors have had months to prepare.

Raymond James reiterated its Street-high $800 price target, arguing the company’s operating performance remains strong.

Shares are currently changing hands at $111.80.

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BNB Chain Launches “Build the Era” Hackathon to Find the Official BNB Agent Studio Marketplace

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[PRESS RELEASE – Dubai, UAE, August 5th, 2026]

BNB Chain, one of the most active blockchain ecosystems worldwide, today announced Build the Era, an open hackathon challenging builders to create the definitive AI agent marketplace on BNB Smart Chain (BSC). The winning submission will have the opportunity to become the officially adopted BNB Agent Studio marketplace, backed by BNB Chain as a standalone product with its own brand and team.

The hackathon addresses a discoverability gap that has emerged as agent activity on BSC has scaled. More than 200,000 AI agents are now registered on BSC under ERC-8004, the standard for onchain agent identity — roughly 60% of all registered agents across 26 networks.

Participants are asked to build the marketplace itself, not a portfolio of individual agents, and submissions will be judged primarily on how easily someone can discover and hire an agent through the platform. Agents registered under ERC-8004 already carry onchain identity and a track record other software can query; the core task for builders is making that data legible to a person deciding who to hire. The hackathon has no fixed tracks for the main prize; allowing teams to compete across different domains, as well as for partner prizes. The community will define what a BSC-native marketplace should look like.

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To guide development, BNB Chain will share reference agents and skills spanning four categories: monitoring agents that track markets, wallets, and positions; grid trading agents that run automated strategies within set ranges; health factor agents that monitor loan positions to act ahead of liquidation; and yield agents that reallocate capital toward the highest-earning opportunities. These categories are intended as guidance rather than fixed judging criteria.

The winning marketplace will be considered for adoption as BNB Agent Studio’s official community marketplace, with BNB Chain backing continued development, user acquisition, and growth alongside the ecosystem. Taking first place does not preclude teams from also competing for partner-sponsored prizes.

Build the Era carries more than $40,000 in prizes from BNB Chain and ecosystem partners, alongside token and credit rewards:

  • BNB Chain: $30,000 USDT
  • TermiX: $10,000 USDT
  • PancakeSwap: 1,000 CAKE
  • AltLayer: 8004scan Pro plans
  • Altana: 50,000 XP

Submissions will be scored against published criteria covering functionality, data quality, agent diversity, and real-world usage, with full details available when the build period opens. Partner tracks, where applicable, are judged separately according to each sponsor’s own criteria.

Build the Era is open to solo builders and teams, with submissions accepted via intake form through the close of the build period.

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Key dates:

  • Build period: August 5 – September 9
  • Judging: September 9 – September 23
  • Winner announcement: November 5

Build the Era follows the BNB Agent Studio launch and reflects BNB Chain’s continued push to make autonomous agents something anyone on BSC can find, hire, and put to work.

About BNB Chain

BNB Chain is a community-driven decentralized blockchain ecosystem powering Web3 applications across DeFi, AI, gaming, and consumer use cases. Its multi-chain architecture spans BNB Smart Chain (BSC), opBNB, and BNB Greenfield, providing the infrastructure for builders deploying onchain applications at scale. For more information, visit www.bnbchain.org.

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Polymarket Seeks $1 Billion At More Than $20 Billion Valuation

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Crypto Breaking News

Prediction market platform Polymarket is in preliminary discussions to raise $1 billion at a valuation of above $20 billion, according to sources familiar with the ongoing negotiations.

The latest discussions come only a few months after the platform closed a $15 billion funding round in April.

Polymarket Looks To Raise $1 Billion

If the latest funding round is successful, it would likely double Polymarket’s October 2025 valuation of $9 billion. The company secured a $15 billion valuation during its April funding round, bringing hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co. and venture capital firm G Squared on board as new investors. Polymarket also secured a $600 million investment from Intercontinental Exchange Inc. during April’s funding round, bringing the total investment close to $1 billion.

Since the April funding round, Polymarket has launched its US exchange and reported annualized revenue of over $1.2 billion. Daily notional volume on Polymarket’s US exchange has crossed $100 million, a substantial increase from the $75 million reported in May. Negotiations remain at an early stage, with no term sheet, closing date, or final investor sheet publicly available. A $20 billion valuation would value Polymarket nearly 33% higher than the April 2026 funding round, and more than twice Bloomberg’s October 2025 valuation.

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Why Polymarket Has A Strong Case For Higher Valuation

Polymarket’s return to the US market as a regulated entity gives it a highly regulated growth channel and bolsters its case for a higher valuation. Polymarket US is listed as QCX LLC, a designated contract market, in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) official registry. Polymarket has submitted rule changes, liquidity programs, surveillance, and trading procedures since its listing. According to Bloomberg, Polymarket opened its US exchange after its April 2026 funding round.

Polymarket’s reported revenue growth supports the platform’s push for a higher valuation, and trading data revealed a significant jump in trading activity on the US platform.

Kalshi’s $22 Billion Valuation

Kalshi, Polymarket’s biggest rival, announced a Series F funding round at a $22 billion valuation. The funding round was led by Coatue, with investments from Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, IVP, Paradigm, AKR Invest, and Morgan Stanley. The prediction market reported an 800% increase in trading volume, while its annualized trading volume rose from $52 billion to $178 billion. Kalshi also claimed it controlled over 90% of the US prediction market when it announced the funding round, while independent data showed Kalshi processed over three times the combined volume of Polymarket’s international and US platforms.

Polymarket plans to leverage its crypto settlement infrastructure, international reach, brand recognition, and partnership with Intercontinental Exchange to narrow the valuation gap with Kalshi.

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Ongoing Regulatory Disputes Could Hamper Funding

Polymarket US is facing lawsuits in several US states that argue sports events contracts equate to gambling and are subject to state, not federal, laws. Polymarket and QCX were also the subject of a civil complaint filed by the Nevada Gaming Control Board to stop companies like Polymarket from offering unlicensed wagering in Nevada. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are also locked in a dispute about whether the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive authority over prediction markets.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Binance Affiliates Sue RedotPay Founders for Nearly $473 Million

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RedotPay is facing a lawsuit seeking around $473 million in damages from Binance-affiliated companies.

The case centers on allegations that the Hong Kong-based stablecoin payments firm diverted more than 470,000 users from Binance Card by allowing them to fund the firm’s payment cards through Binance Pay outside the terms of an existing commercial agreement.

Bloomberg reported the lawsuit on Wednesday and cited a Hong Kong court filing which revealed the exchange’s affiliates Nest Trading, Distributed Technologies Ltd., and Chaintecs Consulting Singapore brought the case against RedotPay’s co-founders Gao Zhangpeng, Chan Wa Choi, and Yao Chao.

Agreement Breach

The plaintiffs calculated the claimed damages using a lifetime customer value of $925 for each allegedly diverted user. Chaintecs has also brought a related case in Singapore, the hearing of which is scheduled for Friday.

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The dispute comes months after Binance’s decision to end its support for the company. In an update, the exchange previously said that Binance Pay features and functionality on the RedotPay platform were discontinued from April 3, 2026, as part of its review of merchant partners.

Meanwhile, the Hong Kong-based firm has been expanding its presence in crypto payments and preparing for a possible public listing. It was in talks to raise as much as $150 million, with the potential funding coming as it targets a US IPO that could value the business above $4 billion. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Jefferies Financial Group were advising the company on a potential New York listing that could come as early as this year.

It had raised $194 million in two funding rounds back in September and December 2025. Coinbase Ventures, Circle Ventures and Blockchain Capital were among the investors. RedotPay has also posted significant growth in transaction activity. Its annualized total payment volume crossed $10 billion in December 2025, while its full-year TPV increased 300% year over year.

User Growth and Expansion

The RedotPay dispute comes as Binance continues to expand its reach across the broader financial market. In July, the exchange said its registered user base had climbed to 323 million across more than 100 countries, increasing 7% in the first half of 2026.

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Institutional users also surged by 9% during the same period. Its cumulative trading volume reached $156 trillion after $11.4 trillion was added in the first six months.

Beyond crypto, its traditional finance products have generated more than $80 billion in monthly trading volume since March. Its stock trading service, which was launched in June, crossed $1 billion in assets under management within a month.

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