Bitcoin (BTC) starts the new week with a bump as traders brace for more macro volatility.

Key points:

• Bitcoin gets knocked back toward $62,000, but a trader is already eyeing the end of the bear market by September.
• A new BTC price “death cross” forms the latest signal that the bear market may have just months left to run.
• The US-Iran war is back as the Strait of Hormuz closes to oil traffic, prompting risk-asset headwinds.
• US CPI and PPI data is due out, while Fed chair Kevin Warsh will outline future policy to lawmakers.
• A major distribution event involving midsize Bitcoin hodlers shows fractured sentiment across investor cohorts.

Bitcoin bear-market bottom due “around September or October”

Bitcoin continues to circle its lowest levels since Q3 2024, but one theory is already calling for the return of the bull market as soon as September.

In an X post on Monday, trader Ryker called the entire four-year cycle of bull and bear markets into question.

“I disagree with this chart,” they wrote alongside a comparison of previous market phases for BTC/USD stretching back to 2013.

Ryker argued that since consensus sees the 2026 bear-market bottom as still to come, market makers will frontrun sentiment and initiate a long-term rebound in advance, leaving as many traders off-side as possible.

“Most people believe that the next Bitcoin bull cycle will begin in 2027. However, market makers know exactly what the crowd is thinking,” they continued. 

“I predict that Bitcoin will start surging around September or October of this year, and the crowd will miss the buy opportunity. You shouldn’t trust this chart.”

BTC/USD one-week chart comparison. Source: Ryker/X

The idea comes as multiple BTC price indicators begin to flash reversal signals for the first time since the end of the last bear market in late 2022.

As Cointelegraph reported, however, history suggests that the bear market is simply too young to reverse before the end of the year, with current progress at around 70%.

Trader confirms classic BTC price bear-market “death cross”

Bitcoin saw sell-side pressure immediately after the weekly close, dropping to local lows near $62,500, per data from TradingView.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This reinforced the area around $64,000 as short-term resistance, with multiple attempts to break higher all ending in failure last week.

“Crypto choppy, so are stocks,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in his latest analysis on X.

“Bitcoin remains rangebound between this ~$61K-$65K region and is right in the middle here.”

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Fellow trader Lennaert Snyder saw little chance of even a rematch with range highs, putting $63,600 as the next entry point for a BTC short position.

“Orderflow also confirms spot and perps are selling and funding rates are still quite high, so some downward pressure would be healthy,” he commented on Monday about exchange order-book data.

Snyder described BTC/USD dropping to fresh lows under $57,800 as the “most healthy scenario.”

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Lennaert Snyder/X

A more optimistic take came from trader Jelle, who maintained hope of a near-term rebound to $70,000.

On longer time frames, Jelle noted the recent “death cross” on the weekly chart potentially forming a reliable foundation for sustained upside.

This involves the 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages (SMAs), and with the last death cross coming in September 2022, just months before the last bear-market bottom.

“In the past, by the time this signal flashed, Bitcoin’s bear market was nearly ending. More and more signs confirming my belief that accumulation season is back,” Jelle told X followers.

BTC/USD one-week chart with 50, 100SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Hormuz closure rocks oil, stocks in crypto headwind

The US-Iran war is already back as a major macro volatility driver this week.

Over the weekend, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz — a key global oil route — closed until further notice.

This followed a series of escalatory events that broke the fragile ceasefire agreement previously in effect, and markets reacted in kind.

US WTI crude oil returned to $75 per barrel on Monday, up nearly 12% versus its July lows.

CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Reacting, Nic Puckrin, CEO and cofounder of crypto education platform Coin Bureau, flagged other signs of stress as a result of the resurgent conflict.

“US 2yr T-bill yields just shot above 2.35% – the highest level in 16 months!” he wrote in a post on X. 

“The Iran situation is pushing up oil prices & inflation expectations. It’s saying: Interest rates are going to be higher for longer.”

US two-year Treasury yield chart. Source: Nic Puckrin/X

Puckrin referred to two-year US Treasury note yields and their potential impact on financial policy, with higher interest rates traditionally being a headwind for crypto and risk assets.

While US stock futures saw a cautious start to the week, the frequency of negative Iran headlines appeared to show in their comparatively muted reaction to the oil-supply threat. As such, some market participants brushed off the potential for a deeper market retracement based solely on Middle-East cues.

“This correction has, in my opinion, little to do with everything in the Middle East,” crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe argued. 

Van de Poppe instead put the focus on Japanese bond markets as the yen circled multidecade lows versus the US dollar. 

“It has a lot more to do with the Japanese Yield jumping again,” he continued. 

“I expect to see a breakdown in Yield over the next 1-2 weeks, which would automatically lead to a positive breakout in Bitcoin.”

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Fed’s Warsh to testify with CPI, PPI data due

Against the background of Iran instability, US markets will also need to surf key macro data releases in the coming days.

Chief among these are the June prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). Both mark the final releases before the Federal Reserve meets to decide on interest-rate changes at the end of the month.

As Cointelegraph reported, the Iran knock-on effect has been reflected in US inflation reports for several months, making any surprise readings in CPI or PPI a key potential risk-asset volatility catalyst.

US CPI 12-month % change. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

“We have a highly eventful week ahead of us,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized to X followers.

Almost immediately after CPI on Tuesday, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh will present a semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee.

Warsh has walked a tightrope since taking over in May, juggling rising inflation with pressure from US president Donald Trump to cut rates. At his first interest-rate meeting, however, he remained on the hawkish side, avoiding dropping clear hints that policy could be relaxed. 

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets currently see rates staying the same until September, when majority consensus calls for a 0.25% hike.

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

In analysis published late last week, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company described rates being caught in a “tug-of-war,” while pointing instead to US 30-year Treasury yields as a source of friction going forward.

“A breakout in long-term rates may present obstacles for the rally, but the S&P 500 is nearing completion of a short-term bullish chart pattern,” it warned.

This week also sees around 10% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings.

S&P 500 chart data. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

Midsize BTC hodler selling hits multimonth highs

New insights into Bitcoin hodler selling adds to the case for a BTC price rebound in July.

Related: Bitcoin whales sent BTC price to $64K as Coinbase Premium broke key level: CryptoQuant

Published by onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant on Monday, data covering addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC shows a major new distribution event.

“Bitcoin wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC recorded net distribution of about 67,000 BTC on July 13, the cohort’s strongest selling activity since February 19, when distribution reached roughly 47,000 BTC,” contributor Amr Taha wrote in a blog post.

Over the past three months, the cohort’s activity has been in a state of flux, with late April conversely seeing conspicuous accumulation.

Taha, however, notes that these 100-1,000 BTC entities tend to reduce exposure before bullish BTC price reversals.

“Historically, extreme accumulation by this cohort appeared near local Bitcoin price highs in January and April 2026, while the strong distribution recorded after February 19 was followed by a price rebound,” he continued.

“The current signal does not confirm a market bottom, but it places Bitcoin near another historically significant shift in mid-sized investor behavior.”

Bitcoin exchange inflow data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant data also shows that inflows to both Binance and Coinbase Prime actually cooled in mid-July.

Last week, Cointelegraph reported on profit-taking by short-term holders as BTC/USD rose to $64,000 — something that analysis likewise described as a feature “characteristic of a bull market.” 

Binance’s futures market volume is hitting a new 2026 high even as cryptocurrency spot trading remains stuck at its weakest levels in two years.

Binance, the world’s largest centralized exchange (CEX) by trading volume, recorded $1.6 trillion in futures trading volume in June, its highest level of 2026, according to CryptoQuant analyst Maarten Regterschot, who posts under the moniker “Maartuun.”

“That might seem unexpected,” Maartunn wrote in a post on Friday, noting that Bitcoin remains in the mid-$60,000 range as many cautious traders continue to describe the market as bearish.

The surge marks a sharp turnaround for Binance’s futures market after months of slower activity and a multi-quarter decline in futures volumes on CEXs.

Binance futures volume jumps 80% in June

Binance’s $1.61 trillion in futures trading volume in June was an 80% increase from May’s $893 billion.

June trading far outpaced major competitors, as OKX reached $609 billion and Bybit logged $434 billion, with both exchanges topping May volumes, up 9% and 18%, respectively.

Source: CryptoQuant

All three exchanges haven’t seen futures trading near this level since January 2026, when Binance processed around $1.5 trillion in volume, as OKX and Bybit reached $667 billion and $502 billion, respectively.

Futures and spot markets hit multi-quarter lows

To be sure, Binance’s June futures surge came as the broader CEX futures market remained under pressure in the second quarter of 2026.

For the period, futures volume fell to $15.7 trillion, down 11% from $17.6 trillion in Q1, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline, according to CryptoRank data.

Source: CryptoRank

The pace of the decline slowed compared with Q1, when futures volume fell 31% from Q4 2025. Binance remained the largest futures venue in Q2, holding about 28% market share.

Related: Hyperliquid shows how onchain perps could challenge Wall Street: Pantera

Spot markets faced a deeper slowdown, with CEX spot volume falling to $3 trillion in Q2, the weakest quarter in two years and an 18.9% drop from Q1. Binance remained the largest spot exchange with $731 billion in quarterly volume, but its market share slipped from 27% to 24%.

Binance futures face a new test after MiCA transition

Binance’s futures surge came shortly before the end of Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) transition period, with July data offering an early look at whether the regulatory shift affected the exchange’s activity in the region.

Binance withdrew its application for a license in Greece in late June, days before the framework entered its next phase on July 1.

Early July figures by CryptoQuant show Binance’s futures market has remained active following the MiCA transition, with the exchange recording $418 billion in futures volume in the first 10 days of the month.

Magazine: Bitcoin nearing late stages of bear market: Jamie Coutts, Real Vision

President Donald Trump has confirmed that he will unveil newly declassified 2020 election intelligence during a Thursday night address alongside top U.S. national security officials.

According to MS NOW, Trump is scheduled to speak to the nation on Thursday at 9:00 PM ET alongside CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, FBI Director Kash Patel, and Acting Director of National Intelligence Bill Pulte.

Early speculation suggested the speech would focus on the renewed confrontation with Iran, but the network reported that the administration instead plans to discuss intelligence documents that were recently declassified.

The reports date back to early 2021 and were originally released by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, and the Department of Homeland Security. Their purpose was to assess whether foreign governments interfered with the election process or compromised the security and integrity of the vote.

Officials examined election infrastructure, voter registration systems, vote counting procedures, ballot handling, and the reporting of election results. According to the government assessment, investigators found no evidence that any foreign government-affiliated actor prevented eligible voters from casting ballots, changed votes, altered ballots, disrupted vote counting, or interfered with the timely reporting of election results.

The assessment also documented cyber activity linked to Russia and Iran. While those campaigns successfully accessed some election-related networks, investigators concluded they did not materially affect voter records, ballot integrity, vote totals, or the certified outcome of the election. The report further stated that several claims promoted by Iran regarding weaknesses in the U.S. electoral system were inaccurate or exaggerated.

Markets await details from the White House

Financial markets and political observers are now watching the White House address for additional information about the newly released documents and the administration’s interpretation of their findings.

Prediction market participants have also reacted to the announcement. According to Polymarket data, traders currently assign an 8% probability that U.S. courts will ultimately rule that the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent. The market continues to price in relatively low odds despite renewed attention on the declassified intelligence.

The White House speech follows several days of heightened geopolitical uncertainty that has already affected financial markets. As previously reported by crypto.news, Bitcoin dropped more than 2% toward $62,000 after Trump reinstated an Iranian blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers in the Strait of Hormuz while introducing new cargo fees for vessels crossing the strategic waterway.

Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would remain open “with or without Iran” and declared that the United States would be known as “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT.” The announcement came after renewed attacks around the vital oil shipping route intensified tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Intelligence findings remain the central focus

Despite the recent geopolitical developments, the upcoming address is expected to center on the declassified election intelligence rather than foreign policy. According to MS NOW, the presence of the nation’s top intelligence and law enforcement officials indicates that the administration intends to present the findings as a national security matter.

Lawmakers, political organizations, and market participants are expected to closely monitor the speech for any additional disclosures beyond the material already contained in the declassified reports. Whether the administration introduces new evidence or simply expands on the existing assessments will likely become clearer once the address begins.

Reed Smith, a global law firm with over 30 offices across North America, Europe and Asia, has launched an automated compliance platform designed to help crypto companies navigate the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation as the bloc enters a new phase of crypto oversight.

The platform, called Aquarius, automates key compliance tasks including crypto-asset classification, regulatory white paper generation, due diligence and environmental, social and governance (ESG) disclosures. Reed Smith said it plans to expand the platform to support crypto compliance regimes in the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong and Singapore.

According to the firm, Aquarius is intended to simplify MiCA compliance for companies entering the European market or expanding their crypto offerings in the region by combining automated workflows with legal expertise.

The launch comes shortly after the European Union’s MiCA transition period ended on July 1, when crypto companies could no longer rely on temporary national exemptions in countries that adopted the full grandfathering period. The sweeping MiCA framework establishes licensing, consumer protection and operational requirements for digital asset service providers across the 27-member EU.

Reed Smith operates a global digital asset practice under its “On Chain” initiative, advising on several high-profile industry transactions. It served as legal counsel to the placement agents in Trump Media’s $2.5 billion Bitcoin treasury financing and advised Nakamoto Holdings in its merger with KindlyMD to create a Bitcoin treasury company.

Related: Regulators invited Binance to seek new licenses after MiCA setback, co-CEO says

MiCA compliance still presents challenges

Despite MiCA’s harmonized framework, obtaining authorization remains a complex process for many service operators. Last week, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) launched a supervisory review of authorized crypto-asset service providers, examining how custodians safeguard client assets and manage operational risks.

According to Sebastien Dessimoz, co-founder and managing partner of digital asset infrastructure provider Taurus, obtaining a MiCA license is only the beginning for custodians, who face ongoing scrutiny over cybersecurity, governance and ability to protect client assets.

Meanwhile, reports suggest EU policymakers are considering revisions to MiCA’s stablecoin framework, including rules governing the issuance of non-euro-denominated stablecoins. According to Euronews, the discussions have been prompted in part by the United States’ GENIUS Act, which established a federal framework for payment stablecoins.

Related: Crypto Biz: How stablecoins found their niche

Barcelona, Spain, July, 2026 — Eleven weeks after the European Union’s MiCA deadline, the 12th edition of the European Blockchain Convention (EBC12) returns to Barcelona at a pivotal moment for the industry. It is the region’s first major institutional gathering since the world’s first comprehensive cross-border digital asset regulation became fully law, and the event where European deal flow happens.

MiCA is now fully in force. For European markets, the focus shifts to what comes next: CASP licensing, stablecoin issuance, and the role of CBDCs in cross-border settlement. EBC12 is where that conversation takes place.

Rather than chasing mandates city by city across London, Paris, Frankfurt, Zurich, and Barcelona, EBC12 compresses the European digital asset market into a single two-day commercial arena. It takes place on 16–17 September 2026 at the Palau de Congressos de Catalunya.

Europe has set the pace for compliant digital asset markets, giving the industry a clearer framework for how crypto can scale within regulation rather than around it. The institutional signal is unmistakable: Deutsche Börse has invested $200 million in Kraken; Santander’s digital bank, Openbank, has expanded its crypto trading for customers across Germany and Spain. Both will be among the institutions discussing what comes next in Barcelona this September.

EBC expects 80 of Europe’s top 100 banks in Barcelona this September, up from 50 last year. The debate about whether institutions will enter digital assets is over. EBC12 is where they come to work out what comes next.

“Eight years ago, we built EBC because we believed Europe would be where this industry matured. A lot of people thought we were early. In 2026, European banks are deploying capital, institutional products are live across major markets, and the regulatory framework is in place. EBC is where the people driving that change meet once a year to do real business,” said Victoria Gago, Co-CEO of European Blockchain Convention and Digital Assets Forum.

Sessions cover institutional capital allocation, real-world asset tokenisation, regulatory market structure, and the future of stablecoins and CBDCs as global settlement infrastructure.

Confirmed speakers include Emma Landriault, Head of Kinexys Labs at J.P. Morgan; Mohamad Zaraket, Head of Digital Assets Strategy EMEA at BNY; Kathleen Wrynn, Global Head of DA, Invesco; Victor Jung, Vice President, Digital Assets & Currencies, Hamilton Lane; Previn Singh from Fidelity and Colin Payne, Head of Innovation at the Financial Conduct Authority, among more than 300 speakers from across banking, asset management, infrastructure, and policy.

Alongside the main programme, EBC12 features 10,000 pre-arranged one-to-one meetings, a Buy Side Breakfast for allocators and institutional investors, and a dedicated press room with direct access to speakers.

EBC12 expects over 5,000 attendees from 90+ countries for two days of market intelligence, strategic networking, and commercial momentum at the Palau de Congressos de Catalunya, a new premium venue reflecting the event’s institutional evolution.

About European Blockchain Convention

Founded in 2018, the European Blockchain Convention has grown into a key driver of European deal flow in digital assets, bringing together banks, asset managers, regulators, infrastructure providers, and builders annually. Alongside EBC, the Digital Assets Forum series extends this reach across London, Abu Dhabi, and New York throughout the year.

Tokyo-based SBI VC Trade has opened applications for a new lending product that lets users earn yield on a yen-denominated stablecoin, JPYSC. The service will accept JPYSC deposits starting Thursday and lend them for a fixed 12-week term, advertising an annualized rate of 3% and a gross return of roughly 0.69% over the period, before taxes, according to an SBI VC Trade press release.

While the yield is positioned as higher than typical bank rates for yen deposits cited by SBI, the structure is not treated as a traditional deposit product. The company also warns that the tokens lent out are not protected by deposit insurance and could be partially or fully lost if the lender faces bankruptcy.

Key takeaways

• SBI VC Trade is launching a 12-week JPYSC lending program with an advertised 3% annualized rate.
• Gross return over the term is estimated at ~0.69% (before tax), based on the stated annualized yield.
• Not a bank deposit: the product is not covered by deposit insurance and cannot be canceled early.
• No statutory asset segregation: customers’ lent tokens could be exposed in the event of bankruptcy.
• Broader push: the launch follows SBI’s recent trust-structured yen stablecoin rollout and a new partnership aimed at expanding onchain finance infrastructure.

How the JPYSC lending service is structured

SBI VC Trade’s new offering is designed around a straightforward mechanism. Users will lend their JPYSC tokens to SBI VC Trade’s business and, at maturity, receive the tokens back along with a lending fee, the company said in its Monday announcement.

At the advertised rate, the company estimates a gross return of about 0.69% for a 12-week lending window, before tax. SBI additionally framed the product as offering more than the 0.325% to 1% annual range that it cited for ordinary yen deposits.

Even so, SBI is clear that this arrangement is not equivalent to holding yen in a bank account. The tokens are lent rather than deposited, the service is not covered by deposit insurance, and early cancellation is not generally available. The release further notes that the JPYSC lent to SBI VC Trade will fall outside statutory asset segregation requirements.

For users, that distinction is critical: if the company were to go bankrupt, customers could lose some or all of their tokens. In other words, the product introduces stablecoin-credit risk even though it is marketed as a yield-bearing use case for a yen-backed instrument.

Why SBI is moving stablecoins toward yield

The application opening comes shortly after SBI unveiled its trust-structured yen stablecoin, introduced on June 24. With regulated stablecoins in Japan increasingly expanding from payments toward interest-bearing applications, SBI VC Trade is effectively adding a yield layer that can make holding JPYSC more attractive than leaving funds idle.

SBI VC Trade previously launched lending services in Japan for Circle’s USDC in March, allowing retail customers to lend the dollar-denominated stablecoin in exchange for passive yield. In the new program, SBI is extending the same concept to a yen-denominated stablecoin.

From an investor and user perspective, this is part of a broader shift in stablecoin utility: rather than viewing stablecoins solely as a payment rail, issuers and platforms are pushing toward them functioning as productive onchain capital. However, these products also tend to shift risk from price volatility toward counterparty and legal-structure risk—particularly when segregation and insolvency protections are not aligned with deposit-like expectations.

Solana partnership expands SBI’s onchain ambitions

SBI’s stablecoin lending push is occurring alongside plans to scale the infrastructure behind its onchain activities. Separately from the JPYSC lending product, SBI Holdings announced a strategic partnership with the Solana Foundation aiming to develop a Japanese onchain financial market.

As part of the partnership, the Solana Foundation will join SBI R3 Japan, which will be renamed SBI Solana Global and tasked with issuing a new growth strategy focused on the yen-backed stablecoin. The initiative also lays out goals related to expanding stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets across Asia, and building infrastructure for institutional onchain financial services, cross-border payments, and payment tooling for AI agents.

While the lending program itself is delivered through SBI VC Trade’s product framework, the partnership suggests the company wants JPYSC to be more than a local feature. The stated aim is ultimately to broaden how yen stablecoins can be used across a larger onchain and settlement ecosystem.

Japan policy signals support for Web3 startups

The timing of the launch also aligns with reported positive signals for Japan’s wider crypto and Web3 startup environment. According to a CoinPost report, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reportedly said in a video address at WebX 2026 that the government plans to strengthen support for crypto and Web3 startups.

The measures reportedly include increased funding via government-backed funds and easing of regulatory requirements. The government’s direction has been reinforced by policy frameworks such as the “Startup Total Power Package” introduced in May 2025, and a “Five-Year Startup Development Plan” formulated in 2022, which aims to increase startup investments to 10 trillion yen by fiscal 2027, according to the Cabinet Office documents.

Separately, in April 2026, Japan amended the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act to classify crypto assets as financial instruments. That change moves digital assets out of an experimental payments category and places them in a more established regulatory framework comparable to stock market instruments.

For markets, these developments matter because they reduce friction for compliant product design and may help explain why stablecoin use cases—like lending—are emerging in more structured formats rather than remaining experimental.

With SBI VC Trade starting applications for this 12-week JPYSC lending program, the next thing readers should watch is not only participation and returns, but also how consistently Japan’s evolving regulatory approach supports stablecoin yield products—especially around insolvency exposure, token handling, and whether future offerings add stronger protections for users.