Strategy, the bitcoin treasury vehicle led by executive chairman Michael Saylor, signaled additional activity in its BTC holdings on Sunday as it nears a pivotal STRC dividend vote. Saylor posted on X a bubble chart tracking Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases over nearly six years, hinting that “a good time to add more dots.” The post came ahead of a shareholder meeting where investors will decide whether STRC dividends shift from a monthly cadence to semi-monthly payouts.

CEO Phong Le amplified the message, noting that Strategy’s objective is to increase net Bitcoin and Bitcoin per share over time, and that rumors should be treated cautiously until the vote concludes.

Strategy continues to hold a sizable Bitcoin treasury—843,706 BTC with an average cost of about $75,701 per BTC. Bitcoin itself traded around $62,153 at the time of writing, after a roughly 16.6% decline over the past week, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Last week, Strategy announced it had repurchased some corporate debt, temporarily pausing further BTC accumulation and stirring market fears that financing buybacks could require selling BTC.

Key takeaways

• A signal of renewed BTC purchases from Saylor ahead of STRC news, continuing a pattern of public cues ahead of Strategy’s acquisitions.
• The proposed STRC dividend change would move to semi-monthly payments; passage hinges on 50% of all 85 million STRC shares outstanding as of April 17, 2026.
• BTC’s recent price action has been negative, with Strategy’s 843,706 BTC holding carrying an implied cost basis around $75,701 per coin.
• Debt repurchase last week paused BTC accumulation and raises questions about liquidity and future capital allocation plans.
• Retail investor proxy voting participation remains historically low relative to institutions, potentially shaping the outcome of the proposal.

Strategic signals behind the vote and the BTC thesis

Michael Saylor’s public signaling has become part of Strategy’s cadence ahead of material BTC moves. The executive chairman’s social posts, often accompanied by data visualizations from StrategyTracker, historically precede the company’s latest crypto purchases and help frame market expectations around Strategy’s ever-expanding bitcoin pool. Strategy remains one of the most prominent publicly traded holders of Bitcoin, with a reported 843,706 BTC on its balance sheet and an average acquisition cost near $75,701 per BTC. In the current price environment, Bitcoin traded around $62,153, illustrating the gap between the cost basis of Strategy’s holdings and prevailing market prices.

The context matters for investors evaluating the potential impact of further acquisitions on Strategy’s per-share Bitcoin exposure and on the liquidity characteristics of STRC—an issue that has gained additional attention as the company navigates a broader sell-off in crypto markets.

Dividend cadence change: voting mechanics and what’s at stake

The key decision for Strategy shareholders is a proposed adjustment to STRC dividend payments, shifting from a monthly to a semi-monthly schedule. The company argues that more frequent distributions would reduce reinvestment lag, improve liquidity and market efficiency, and contribute to greater price stability. The amendment requires the support of 50% of all STRC shares outstanding, which stood at 85 million as of April 17, 2026, meaning roughly 42.5 million votes would be needed for passage.

The outcome is expected to be determined at Monday’s Strategy shareholder meeting. Cointelegraph requested turnout data from proxy solicitor Alliance Advisors, but did not receive an immediate response. As a practical matter, retail participation in proxy voting has historically lagged institutional engagement; a Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance note from November highlighted that retail holders vote on about 29% of their shares, compared with roughly 77% for institutional holders.

What changes if the measure passes and what to watch next

Proponents contend that semi-monthly distributions would bolster liquidity, shorten reinvestment lags, and theoretically enhance the Sharpe ratio by providing more entry and exit points for investors. Strategy leadership has framed the change as part of a disciplined, time-scaled approach to increasing bitcoin exposure over time while maintaining stability for STRC holders. The company suggested that the new cadence would begin in June, with the first semi-monthly payout expected in July, a detail referenced by Saylor at the Synergy26 conference for registered investment advisors.

Beyond the vote, investors will be watching for any new BTC purchases or other capital allocation moves that could influence Strategy’s cost basis and the dynamic between its bitcoin treasury and STRC’s market performance. The latest signals from Saylor and StrategyTracker emphasize that corporate actions remain intertwined with the company’s long-running strategy of expanding bitcoin ownership while navigating the implications of debt management and liquidity planning.

As the voting process unfolds, readers should keep an eye on turnout figures and any updates on Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation plans, which could have material implications for both STRC holders and the broader narrative around publicly traded Bitcoin treasury vehicles.

TLDR:

• Morpho Midnight lets lenders and borrowers lock in fixed rates and maturity dates, replacing floating-rate pool models 
• All markets sharing the same end date pool liquidity together, preventing fragmentation across separate isolated loan contracts 
• Lender capital stays productive on Morpho Blue while simultaneously backing fixed-rate offers on Midnight in one transaction 
• Settlement fees are permanently capped at 50 bps per year, with lender fees hardcoded at a maximum of 1% annually

Morpho Midnight is a new fixed-rate lending protocol built by the team behind Morpho Blue. The whitepaper proposes a fundamentally different approach to onchain credit.

Instead of floating rates tied to pool utilization, borrowers and lenders agree on fixed rates and set end dates upfront.

With over $25 billion in onchain loans today, the protocol targets institutions seeking predictable borrowing costs.

Morpho Midnight Introduces Fixed-Rate Lending to DeFi

Morpho Midnight operates through tradeable units that function as fixed-income instruments with a maturity date. Each unit represents a claim on a future payout, settled at a predetermined rate.

A lender paying $0.95 today, for instance, receives $1.00 at maturity six months later. The difference between entry price and redemption value defines the fixed interest rate.

All markets sharing the same end date are combined into a single liquidity pool. This design prevents liquidity from fragmenting across separate, isolated loan contracts.

As analyst Stacy Muur noted, “liquidity builds up instead of splitting across a thousand separate loans.” The pooling mechanism directly addresses a structural weakness in prior fixed-rate DeFi experiments.

Borrowers and lenders do not interact through a traditional orderbook. Lenders post cryptographically signed offers without locking capital onchain.

Borrowers locate these offers off-protocol, through Telegram, frontends, or routing systems, then submit them for settlement. The protocol itself handles only the final settlement step, keeping execution lean.

This design keeps lender capital productive at all times. A lender can keep funds deployed in Morpho Blue while simultaneously quoting fixed-rate offers on Midnight.

When a borrower accepts, capital moves and the trade settles in a single transaction. The idle capital problem that undermined earlier fixed-rate protocols is structurally removed.

Capital Efficiency and Liquidation Mechanics Set Morpho Midnight Apart

One pool of capital can back offers across multiple markets simultaneously. A market maker with $10 million, for example, can quote across dozens of markets without allocating separate funds to each.

Total exposure stays capped at the actual balance held. This mirrors how traditional fixed-income market makers operate across bond maturities.

Liquidation rules in Morpho Midnight are also more precise than standard DeFi norms. A minor collateral breach triggers a partial repayment rather than a full position liquidation.

Bad debt, if it occurs, is recognized immediately rather than socialized across the pool over time. Borrowers who miss repayment deadlines receive a 15-minute grace ramp before penalties apply.

Fee structures are permanently capped within the protocol. The settlement fee cannot exceed 50 basis points per year, and the lender fee is capped at 1% annually.

These limits are hardcoded and cannot be raised by governance or any other mechanism. Institutional participants gain a reliable, unchanging cost structure.

Morpho’s broader thesis is that onchain credit markets should eventually resemble traditional fixed-income markets.

Floating-rate pools suited early DeFi, but growing market size now demands more structured instruments. Morpho Midnight is designed to meet that demand directly.

Bitcoin traded in a choppy weekend but management of key price floors kept the bulls optimistic. After testing the $60,000 level, BTC rebounded about 6.5% from a local low near $59,100 to an intraday high around $62,950 on Sunday, offering a hint that demand may still emerge at strategic support zones. This move, captured by market participants and chronicled by Cointelegraph, comes as traders weigh the implications of broader macro risk tones for the crypto complex.

Analysts underscored that bitcoin’s ability to hold above a long-standing anchor could shape its near-term trajectory. Filbfilb, a veteran market commentator, highlighted that Bitcoin is currently perched above its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which sits near $61,880. This line – a long-term floor that has coincided with major cycle bottoms in prior years – is viewed by many as a critical gauge of whether risk appetite returns to crypto markets. If BTC can sustain above that level, the next meaningful directional test could come from the 50-week SMA, which sits near $92,630 and is seen as a potential upper-target on a sustained rally.

Meanwhile, the broader market backdrop featured a sharp pullback in the Nasdaq Composite, a reminder that crypto moves can be tethered to traditional risk assets. The tech-heavy index slumped more than 4% on Friday, marking its steepest one-day decline since April 2025 and renewing questions about the speed and strength of any risk-on rebound for BTC. Traders have long noted an imperfect correlation between equities and crypto, yet episodes of tech weakness can still weigh on speculative assets like bitcoin, especially when sentiment is fragile.

Key takeaways

• Long-term floor intact, potential upside target — Bitcoin has held above the 200-week SMA (~$61.9k). If the level remains supportive, traders eye a move toward the 50-week SMA around $92.6k as a meaningful benchmark for upside potential.
• Nasdaq downside risk could shape BTC’s path — Nasdaq fundamentals and technicals point to more downside in the near term, with a conceivable move toward its 20-week SMA near 22,905. A deeper Nasdaq pullback could influence BTC’s risk-on dynamics and keep volatility elevated.
• Bitcoin-Nasdaq ratio hints at a potential mean-reversion bid — The BTC/IXIC ratio again reached an oversold zone on daily RSI readings, suggesting that BTC may outperform Nasdaq if historical patterns repeat and sellers exhaust themselves.
• Oversold dynamics echo February rebound — The BTC-to-Nasdaq ratio RSI dropped to a record low around 14.70 (14.88 previously in February), a level associated with subsequent BTC recoveries in past cycles.

Mean-reversion dynamics: what the charts say about BTC’s near-term path

From a pure price-structure lens, Bitcoin’s weekend action reinforced the value traders place on the 200-week SMA as a long-run defense line. The level has twice acted as a major inflection point in recent cycles, helping to form major bottoms in 2020, 2018, and 2015, as noted by market observers. In practical terms, a hold above this line reduces the risk of a sustained extended decline and keeps open the possibility of a re-acceleration rally should momentum shift in Bitcoin’s favor.

The adjacent narrative of a cooling Nasdaq offers a counterweight to the immediate risk-on impulse. Friday’s drawdown in the Nasdaq, despite its previous strength, has fed into a market psychology that remains wary of deploying capital into speculative assets without clear signs of stabilization in equities. The RSI on Nasdaq’s weekly chart dipped to 62.46 from a lofty 74.75, a move that historically correlates with a reversion toward its 20-week moving average. If the fractal pattern repeats, the Nasdaq could drift toward ~22,905 in the coming weeks, potentially clearing room for a similar directional shift in crypto markets as traders reallocate risk appetite.

The interplay between BTC and Nasdaq is a reminder that while crypto markets can decouple at times, they also react to broader risk sentiment. In a scenario where the Nasdaq continues to cool and tests its own moving-average anchors, BTC might benefit from a lagged rebound as buyers step back in and seek havens beyond traditional equities. That dynamic would align with a mean-reversion thesis: if sellers exhaust themselves near key downside thresholds, BTC could stage a sharper rally.

Oversold signals and the potential for a BTC-led reversion

Bitcoin’s price trajectory relative to Nasdaq strength has produced one of the more striking signals in recent weeks: the BTC/Nasdaq ratio has flirted with historically oversold territory on daily RSI readings. A drop to such extreme levels has historically preceded notable BTC rebounds, reinforcing the idea that BTC could outpace Nasdaq in the near term if buyers re-enter the market with conviction. This pattern is consistent with previous episodes where BTC’s RSI and price dynamics suggested an undervalued condition versus Nasdaq and subsequently printed meaningful follow-through gains.

For researchers and traders, the practical takeaway is the emphasis on price-confirming signals around the major moving averages. The 200-week floor remains the most robust anchor, but a decisive move above the 50-week level would likely be interpreted as a shift in risk sentiment, inviting further upside toward higher-profile targets. On the downside, a break below $60,000 would complicate the constructive setup and could invite a test of deeper support levels, depending on how the Nasdaq evolves in the near term.

As highlighted in the latest commentary and charts compiled by TradingView and market analysts, the current configuration is a reminder of how macro risk events and sector rotations can shape crypto performance. The weekend rebound shows that demand persists at important price junctures, but the path forward will hinge on whether risk assets stabilize or slide further in coming sessions.

For investors and traders, the immediate watchpieces are clear: confirm Bitcoin’s hold above the 200-week SMA around $61.9k, observe whether the Nasdaq finds footing near its 20-week SMA near 22,905, and monitor the BTC/Nasdaq ratio for signs of sustained mean-reversion. As the market digests the week’s data, the balance between risk-off pressure and intrinsic crypto demand will likely determine whether bitcoin can extend the bounce toward higher moving-average horizons or revert to broader consolidation.

What comes next may hinge on a delicate balancing act between the resilience of BTC’s long-term floor and the pace of any deterioration in equities. If buyers keep defending the key floor, and the Nasdaq stabilizes or rebounds, the next leg higher could crystallize a more decisive shift in market sentiment. Conversely, a renewed break below critical supports would warrant caution and a reassessment of near-term risk exposure as investors recalibrate their bets on crypto’s next move.

Sources and context for the observations include ongoing market commentary and charts reproduced by TradingView, with specific notes on the 200-week SMA at around $61,880 and the Nasdaq’s 20-week SMA near 22,905. For readers seeking a broader frame, recent coverage has highlighted the dynamic between crypto price levels and macro risk signals, including discussions around the significance of the $60,000 psychological support and the interplay with equities markets.

Looking ahead, traders will want to watch for how Bitcoin behaves around the 200-week floor, whether the Nasdaq sustains its current trajectory, and how the BTC/Nasdaq ratio evolves as momentum shifts. These factors will shape whether the bitcoin market is poised for a fresh leg higher or remains tethered to a more cautious posture in the near term.

TLDR:

• A NY judge stayed the Noah Doe lawsuit on June 5, halting any default judgment on 39,069 dormant wallets. 
• An amicus brief argues NY’s lost-and-found statute cannot legally apply to dormant bitcoin wallet addresses.
• The targeted wallets hold an estimated 3.8 million BTC worth around $234 billion, per Galaxy Research analysts.
• Several dormant defendant wallets moved BTC after the lawsuit was filed, including a $3M transfer flagged in June. 

A New York Supreme Court judge has stayed a lawsuit targeting nearly 40,000 dormant bitcoin wallets, blocking any default judgment.

Justice Kathy J. King signed the order on June 4, filed publicly on June 5. The case involves plaintiffs seeking ownership of 39,069 wallets under New York’s lost-and-found statute.

A July 14 oral argument will determine whether a critical amicus brief is admitted. The brief argues the statute was never designed to apply to blockchain assets.

The Lawsuit and Its Legal Theory

The case, captioned ABC Company, XYZ Company, and Noah Doe v. John Does 1–39,069, draws on New York Personal Property Law Article 7-B.

The anonymous plaintiffs argue that dormant wallets qualify as “lost” property under state law. Under this theory, ownership can transfer to a finder if the original owner fails to claim assets within a statutory period.

Galaxy Research estimated the 39,069 addresses hold roughly 3.8 million BTC. At current prices, that figure is worth approximately $234 billion.

However, the complaint itself values each wallet at under $10, citing the difficulty of recovering assets without private keys.

The listed addresses include the “1Feex” wallet, long tied to the 2011 Mt. Gox hack. Several addresses also match what Galaxy Research describes as Satoshi-era “Patoshi” patterns, connecting them to Bitcoin’s creator. No defendant wallets have appeared in court, which had been clearing a path to default judgment.

The Amicus Brief Challenging Ownership Claims

M&A attorney Ian R. Cohen filed a May 29 motion to appear as amicus curiae. His 26-page brief argues the lost-and-found statute requires physical custody of a tangible object.

A blockchain address cannot be placed in an evidence locker, so the statute does not apply. Cohen holds no financial interest in the outcome and represents no named party.

Cohen’s brief also turns the complaint’s own language against the plaintiffs. Paragraph 27 of the amended complaint states that wallet owners lost access to funds due to a security issue.

Cohen argues this makes the dormancy involuntary, not abandonment. His brief puts it plainly: “A wallet that has been dormant for ten years, whose private key is stored on a steel plate in a bank vault, is not abandoned property. It is securely held property.”

Cohen also argues Noah Doe’s method does not constitute finding under the law. His brief states that Doe’s algorithm amounts to “data mining,” not discovery, and that claiming 39,069 wallets in a single sweep is “industrial-scale asset identification” that no provision of the statute contemplates.

He further warns that any ownership declaration would be functionally useless, writing that “the decentralized architecture of the Bitcoin network renders it structurally indifferent to judicial decrees.”

Cohen also noted that the Legislature amended New York’s Abandoned Property Law in 2022 to specifically address virtual currency, routing dormant crypto assets to the State Comptroller — not to private claimants.

Wallet Movements and the ‘Great Bitcoin Dusting’

Noah Doe used a proprietary algorithm to flag the wallets, then delivered USB drives to the NYPD’s 17th Precinct between December 2024 and April 2025.

A blockchain expert then sent OP_RETURN messages to each address, pointing to an abandonment notice page. Wallets that did not respond within 90 days were treated as abandoned.

Galaxy Research documented this campaign in October as the “Great Bitcoin Dusting.” It involved roughly 41,000 OP_RETURN messages sent to wallets collectively holding about 2.3 million BTC.

Analysts Zack Pokorny and Will Owens wrote that “whoever carried out the operation clearly understands the Bitcoin network on [a] deep technical level and took elegant measures to cover his tracks.”

Since the lawsuit was filed, several named wallets have moved funds. Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn flagged a June 6 transfer of 47.26 BTC, worth nearly $3 million, from defendant wallet number 37923.

A separate wallet dormant since March 2011 moved 35.55 BTC worth approximately $2.2 million on June 2. Those movements have drawn attention across the Bitcoin community and suggest some wallet holders are aware of the proceedings.

TLDR:

• Nearly $26 billion in short liquidation leverage sits above Bitcoin’s current $62,000 price level.
• Shorts lost $218 million in 24 hours, more than double long liquidations across the crypto market.
• A single $82 million short position on OKX was wiped out amid Bitcoin’s 24-hour liquidation wave.
• Cycle Bands flashed an oversold signal for the first time since 2023, hinting at a possible base.

Bitcoin traders are staring down a potential short squeeze as lopsided leverage positions build across major exchanges.

Coinglass data shows nearly $26 billion in short liquidation leverage sitting above Bitcoin’s $62,000 price level. Meanwhile, long liquidation exposure below that level remains well under $2 billion.

This stark imbalance is drawing attention from analysts and active traders watching the market closely.

Lopsided Leverage Builds Across Major Exchanges

The concentration of short positions is spread primarily across three platforms. Binance, OKX, and Bybit hold the bulk of this leveraged exposure on the short side.

Over the past 24 hours, total crypto liquidations reached $332 million across the broader market. Shorts accounted for $218 million of that figure, more than double the losses on the long side.

Bitcoin alone drove $124 million in liquidations during that same window. A single short position on OKX was wiped out for $82 million, standing out as the largest closure.

Open interest across the market climbed 3% to $103 billion despite trading volume pulling back. That combination of rising open interest and falling volume points to a buildup of speculative positioning rather than active price discovery.

Traders are now divided on what comes next for Bitcoin. One camp sees the lopsided short exposure as fuel for a sharp upside move.

The other argues that a break below $60,000 support could trigger a bearish reversal instead. Both scenarios carry real risk given the current leverage environment.

The $60,000 level has become the key line in the sand for market participants. A sustained move below it could unwind the short squeeze thesis quickly and accelerate selling pressure.

Market Data Points Toward Possible Base Formation

Technical analysts are watching Bitcoin’s behavior around the $60,200 yearly low. Crypto analyst account Alpha Extract noted on X that Bitcoin failed to close below that level on the four-hour timeframe. The account described this as a constructive development, even while maintaining a cautious near-term outlook.

Alpha Extract added that lower prices may still come before any meaningful recovery takes hold. However, the analyst noted that each move lower builds a better risk-reward setup for an asymmetric upside trade.

That framing reflects a measured view common among experienced traders navigating prolonged downtrends.

Adding to the discussion, Alpha Extract pointed out that Cycle Bands flashed an oversold signal for the first time since 2023.

That type of reading has historically appeared near market turning points, though it does not guarantee an immediate reversal. Traders are treating it as one more data point in an evolving picture.

The broader market is watching whether Bitcoin can hold current levels and build a credible base. Until that case strengthens, short squeeze risk and downside pressure will continue to define the trading environment.

TLDR:

• Stellar (XLM) is attracting institutional interest through fast, low-cost cross-border payment infrastructure.
• Growing stablecoin activity and real-world asset tokenization are strengthening Stellar’s on-chain economic case.
• Potential CBDC integrations and institutional partnerships could serve as major long-term catalysts for XLM.
• Continuous network upgrades and scalability improvements position Stellar for sustained growth beyond short-term volatility.

Stellar (XLM) is showing signs that a long-term breakout may be forming as blockchain adoption moves toward real-world utility. The network has built a foundation around fast, low-cost cross-border payments and institutional integration.

With growing activity across stablecoins and tokenized assets, Stellar’s infrastructure is drawing closer attention from market observers and financial institutions alike.

Institutional Adoption Could Be the Catalyst Behind XLM’s Breakout

Stellar’s growing institutional presence is one of the strongest arguments for a potential long-term breakout. Financial institutions are increasingly evaluating networks that offer practical payment solutions at low cost. Stellar fits that profile more directly than most competing blockchain networks currently available.

Payment providers are also beginning to build on Stellar’s infrastructure at a measurable pace. As more real transactions flow through the network, its on-chain economic activity grows steadily.

That kind of organic growth tends to support sustained price movement over time rather than short-term speculation.

Crypto commentator SylvianGuibal on X captured this sentiment, noting that Stellar “continues to attract growing institutional interest while expanding its footprint across payments, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.”

If that trajectory holds, institutional adoption alone could serve as a meaningful breakout trigger for XLM going forward.

Real-World Asset Tokenization and Stablecoins Could Push XLM Higher

Tokenization of real-world assets is emerging as a strong driver for Stellar’s long-term growth outlook. Institutions exploring regulated digital finance are looking for networks that can handle asset issuance reliably. Stellar’s architecture is built to support exactly that kind of activity at scale.

Stablecoin usage on the network is also growing at a notable rate. Stablecoins need fast, affordable infrastructure to move value efficiently across borders. Stellar meets those technical requirements, positioning it well within a rapidly expanding stablecoin market.

Beyond that, potential central bank digital currency integrations could further strengthen XLM’s long-term case. Several central banks are actively researching CBDC frameworks, and Stellar has been part of those early discussions. A confirmed CBDC partnership would represent a considerable step toward a sustained breakout scenario.

Continuous Network Upgrades Keep XLM Positioned for Long-Term Growth

Stellar’s development team has maintained a steady schedule of technical upgrades aimed at improving scalability and interoperability.

These improvements ensure the network remains competitive as global financial infrastructure evolves. Consistent development is one of the clearer signs that the project is building for the long term.

The network’s ability to handle high transaction volumes without sacrificing speed or cost remains a core strength.

As adoption grows, this technical capacity reduces the risk of bottlenecks that have slowed other blockchain networks.

That reliability makes Stellar a more credible choice for institutions considering long-term infrastructure commitments.

As @SylvianGuibal stated, “the real question is whether Stellar can continue capturing meaningful economic activity on-chain.”

If adoption across payments, tokenized assets, and stablecoins keeps accelerating, XLM may already be laying the groundwork for the breakout that many in the market are watching for.

TLDR:

• The LTH-SOPR to STH-SOPR ratio has dropped sharply, showing long-term holders are no longer booking large profits.
• Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit has fallen to 47%, matching levels historically seen at the floor of past bear markets.
• Bitcoin is approaching the 200-week moving average and Realized Price, two key support zones from prior cycles.
• Capital rotation toward AI stocks and tech IPOs is driving Bitcoin’s demand shortage, not a structural failure.

Is the market structure starting to change for Bitcoin? That question is gaining traction among analysts and long-term investors.

Bitcoin has slid toward the $60,000 range despite ETF approvals, growing corporate adoption, and clearer regulatory frameworks.

Three on-chain indicators are now offering a data-driven answer to that question — and what they show points toward a bottoming phase rather than a structural breakdown.

What the Data Says About Bitcoin’s Current Market Position

The first indicator drawing attention is the LTH-SOPR to STH-SOPR ratio. This metric compares how long-term holders and short-term holders are realizing gains or losses.

The ratio has fallen sharply in recent weeks. Long-term holders are no longer booking the large profits seen during the previous bull run.

That change in behavior carries weight. When long-term holders stop selling into strength, one major source of sell-side pressure begins to ease.

Historically, this pattern has appeared during the later stages of market corrections. It does not confirm a bottom, but it does reflect a meaningful shift in holder sentiment.

Supply in Profit has also dropped to roughly 47%. That means more than half of all circulating Bitcoin is now held at a loss or near break-even.

In bull markets, this figure typically exceeds 90%. The current reading aligns closely with levels seen at the floor of previous bear cycles in 2018 and 2022.

Taken together, these two indicators suggest that speculative excess has largely been removed from the system. Investors who entered during peak euphoria have either sold or are sitting on unrealized losses. That kind of market cleanup has historically preceded recovery phases.

Why Bitcoin’s Price Decline May Not Signal a Structural Failure

Bitcoin is competing for capital against some of the most powerful investment narratives in global markets right now.

Artificial intelligence stocks and anticipated major technology IPOs are drawing liquidity away from crypto. That rotation is creating a demand shortage, not a collapse in Bitcoin’s fundamentals.

This distinction matters when reading the on-chain data. Bitcoin is approaching two historically important valuation benchmarks — the 200-week moving average and the Realized Price.

Both have acted as strong support zones during past downturns. Buyers who monitor these levels tend to treat them as favorable long-term entry points.

The convergence of these three signals — softening long-term holder profit-taking, a majority of supply in loss, and proximity to key valuation support — paints a consistent picture.

The market structure appears to be transitioning away from distribution and toward accumulation. Sentiment has moved from euphoria to measured caution.

Still, the bottoming phase is not yet confirmed. The next sustained move upward will depend on whether fresh capital returns to Bitcoin.

Until that rotation happens, the market remains in a critical testing zone — and on-chain data remains the clearest tool available for reading its direction.

TLDR:

• Ethereum’s 3-day chart has printed a TD Sequential “9” buy signal after a drop from $2,300 to $1,600.
• The TD Sequential signal indicates potential seller exhaustion but does not confirm a full trend reversal.
• CryptoQuant data shows ETH exchange reserves across all centralized platforms continue trending lower.
• Bulls must defend the $1,600 support zone for ETH to target a recovery toward the $1,800–$1,950 range.

Ethereum’s 3-day chart has printed a TD Sequential “9” buy signal amid a sustained price decline from above $2,300 to near $1,600.

The technical pattern, which tracks nine consecutive bearish candles, points to potential seller exhaustion at current levels.

Meanwhile, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows exchange reserves across centralized platforms trending sharply lower. Together, the two datasets present a case for a short-term price recovery in ETH.

TD Sequential Flags Possible Trend Exhaustion Near $1,600

Ethereum has been under consistent selling pressure over recent weeks, forming a clear series of lower highs and lower lows.

The decline has been steep, with prices dropping roughly 30% from the $2,300 range to the $1,600 zone. That move reflects broad bearish sentiment across the crypto market during this period.

The TD Sequential indicator works by counting nine consecutive candles that each close lower than four candles prior. When the count reaches nine, the signal suggests the existing trend may be losing strength.

Crypto analyst Ali Charts flagged this development on X, noting a small bullish candle has appeared immediately after the signal printed.

According to Ali Charts, if bulls manage to hold the $1,600 support zone, ETH could recover toward the $1,800–$1,950 resistance range.

That area represents the next logical ceiling based on prior price action. A failure to hold support, however, would likely resume the broader downtrend.

The TD Sequential does not guarantee a reversal. Instead, it marks a point where trend momentum may be weakening.

Traders typically wait for confirmation from subsequent candles before entering positions based on the signal alone.

Exchange Reserve Decline Points to Reduced Selling Supply

On-chain researcher Rei Researcher highlighted a separate but complementary dataset. Based on CryptoQuant’s “Ethereum Exchange Reserve — All Exchanges” metric, ETH reserves across centralized exchanges continue declining after a brief upward recovery. That brief uptick saw some retail investors move coins onto exchanges to restructure their portfolios.

The renewed decline in exchange reserves indicates that available sell-side liquidity is shrinking on order books. When holders withdraw ETH to personal wallets rather than exchange accounts, it reduces the immediate supply available for sale. That dynamic tends to ease downward pressure on price over time.

The dominant outflow pattern seen in the data neutralizes a portion of potential sell pressure sitting on exchange order books.

Rei Researcher noted this as clear evidence that most current holders prefer storage over selling at present price levels. That shift in holder behavior matters because it changes the supply dynamics around the $1,600 support level.

Taken together, the TD Sequential signal and the exchange reserve trend suggest the $1,600 zone carries meaningful technical and on-chain support.

Whether ETH can sustain a recovery remains contingent on broader market conditions and buyer follow-through at current levels.