Bitcoin (BTC) institutional demand is “not yet strong” despite positive inflows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Key points:

• Bitcoin ETF flows reverse a ten-day losing streak, but analysis warns that demand remains weak.
• An “overwhelming” sell-off is nonetheless over, says Swissblock.
• Overall BTC demand shows a clear gap between spot and derivatives trends.

Swissblock on Bitcoin ETF outflows: “The storm has passed”

In new X commentary on Thursday, crypto investment company Swissblock called an end to the “most overwhelming” ETF sell-off in history.

“The storm has passed: The most overwhelming ETF distribution wave of this bear market has ended,” it wrote. 

“As Bitcoin Risk continues easing from Capitulation Risk, Spot ETF flows have turned slightly positive again.”

Beginning June 17, the ETFs saw ten straight days of net outflows totaling $2.7 billion, data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors confirms.

The cohort then began to reverse the trend, and saw over $500 million of net inflows over three trading days before a net $84.9 million outflow for Wednesday.

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

Swissblock described the results as a “caveat” to the recovery signal.

“ETF accumulation is positive, but not yet strong. Institutional conviction is not returning with full force,” it added. 

“Has the storm passed? Or is Bitcoin simply in the eye of the storm?”

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows. Source: Swissblock/X

Bitcoin spot markets fail to match futures demand rebound

As Cointelegraph reported, analysis sees overall demand as a key stumbling block on the way to a bullish market recovery.

Related: BTC speculators in focus as analysis says ‘textbook Bitcoin bottom’ is underway

In fresh research for onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant this week, contributor IT Tech saw conditions partially improving, albeit with a clear divide between spot and derivatives markets.

“A week ago, the 30-day cumulative demand was close to -500K BTC. Today, it’s recovered to roughly -75K BTC,” they summarized.

In that time, futures demand went from -295,000 BTC to a “slightly positive” figure, while spot demand stayed negative.

“This tells us something important. The latest bounce has been driven primarily by derivatives traders, while spot buyers are still relatively cautious,” IT Tech commented. 

“Historically, the strongest and most sustainable rallies begin when both futures and spot demand move higher together.”

Bitcoin demand comparison (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

The crypto market recorded its third straight quarter of negative returns in Q2 2026, marking its longest losing streak since 2022, according to a market review published by Bitwise.

The Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index fell 15.4% during the quarter. Eight of its 10 assets ended the period in the red. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds also recorded their worst quarter of outflows since their launch.

Crypto prices extend quarterly decline

Bitwise reported that onchain activity, trading volume and assets held in decentralized finance protocols declined during Q2. Meanwhile, crypto’s correlation with stocks increased, linking digital asset prices more closely with traditional risk markets.

The company said Q2 was “a tough quarter for crypto.” The latest decline extended the market’s run of negative returns to three consecutive quarters, the longest such period since the 2022 bear market.

Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows added to the selling pressure during the quarter. The funds have become an important source of institutional demand since their U.S. launch, but the record quarterly withdrawals showed that investors reduced their exposure as market conditions weakened.

However, ETF flows have changed direction several times during the current market cycle. Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $3.4 billion across seven consecutive weeks of inflows by May 2026.

Stablecoins and tokenized assets continue growing

Despite lower crypto prices, Bitwise said stablecoin settlement volume reached 2.3 times the volume processed by Visa. The company added that stablecoin issuers now hold more U.S. Treasury securities than most countries.

As reported by crypto.news, adjusted stablecoin transaction volume reached $10.9 trillion in 2025, while total settlement volume reached $33 trillion under broader measurements.

Visa has also expanded its direct involvement with blockchain payments. Visa’s stablecoin settlement run rate reached about $7 billion as of March 2026.

Meanwhile, tokenized real-world assets rose 50.3% during the first half of 2026 to $32.89 billion, according to Bitwise. The sector includes blockchain-based versions of assets such as government bonds, private credit and investment funds.

The figure follows continued institutional interest in tokenization. As crypto.news previously reported, the tokenized real-world asset market approached $34 billion as Treasury products and Ethereum-based assets led the sector’s growth.

Prediction markets and crypto stocks resist downturn

Prediction market trading volume reached a record $43.2 billion in Q2. That total was almost 18 times higher than the volume recorded during the same period one year earlier.

Crypto-related stocks also performed better than major digital assets. The Bitwise Crypto Innovators 30 Index rose 30.6% during the quarter, even as the firm’s large-cap crypto index recorded a double-digit loss.

In addition, Bitwise said Hyperliquid, PancakeSwap and Aave each generated about $900 million in revenue during the previous year. The data points to continued demand for decentralized trading, lending and derivatives platforms.

Hyperliquid processed more than $41 billion in seven-day perpetual futures volume by May 2026. Its open interest also reached approximately $9.4 billion.

Onchain data remains above the 2022 bottom

Bitwise compared current market data with conditions at the bottom of the 2022 crypto downturn. Ethereum transaction activity has increased by about 13 times since then, while DeFi total value locked has risen by more than 60%.

Stablecoin assets under management have also roughly doubled from the 2022 market low. Bitwise said, “It’s only prices that haven’t kept pace.”

The company said the crypto industry is now about twice the size it was at the previous cycle’s bottom. However, Bitwise also warned that stronger network activity and wider institutional participation may not prevent further short-term price weakness.

SWIFT says its blockchain-based ledger for financial messaging is now ready for initial use, marking a meaningful step toward giving banks a more clock-agnostic way to move value across borders. After nine months of development, SWIFT announced that 17 major institutions are preparing to pilot cross-border payments using tokenized bank deposits on the platform, with an initial controlled go-live phase expected to follow.

According to SWIFT, participating banks—including HSBC, Citigroup, BNP Paribas, UBS, ANZ, DBS, and Standard Chartered—will test how tokenized deposits can support 24/7 cross-border payments, including overnight and weekend transactions, while keeping the compliance, credit, risk, and control standards built into existing payment processes.

Key takeaways

• SWIFT’s blockchain ledger is reported as ready for initial use after nine months of development.
• 17 banks plan to pilot cross-border transfers using tokenized bank deposits on the SWIFT platform.
• The initiative targets 24/7 settlement behavior, extending payment availability beyond traditional banking hours.
• SWIFT emphasizes that the approach aims to preserve existing compliance, credit, risk, and control requirements.
• SWIFT indicated further expansion of the ledger’s functionality and availability after the first limited rollout.

From messaging to tokenized deposits

SWIFT’s role in global finance is largely about connectivity: its interbank messaging network links more than 11,500 banks and financial institutions across over 200 countries and territories. While SWIFT already supports rapid message delivery on its existing rails—SWIFT said 75% of payments reach the beneficiary bank within 10 minutes, often in seconds—the new effort focuses on what happens when settlement needs to operate regardless of the time of day.

The company’s announcement frames the ledger as an extension of SWIFT’s “resilient global platform,” intended to help “regulated digital assets” move across borders with greater velocity and flexibility. In remarks shared in the announcement, Thierry Chilosi, SWIFT’s chief business officer, said the ledger allows tokenized value to move internationally while maintaining the same levels of resiliency, security, and compliance that global finance expects.

For market participants, the practical significance is not just the use of blockchain, but the target operational outcome: keeping established governance structures while enabling payment flows that are less dependent on bank working hours.

Why the pilot matters for cross-border payments

In SWIFT’s description, the pilots are designed to test cross-border payment capabilities using tokenized deposits, without discarding the compliance and risk frameworks embedded in current processes. That emphasis is important because many tokenization efforts struggle with the same central question: how to integrate new settlement mechanics into existing regulatory and institutional controls.

SWIFT said the ledger will allow participating banks to support 24/7 cross-border payments, explicitly including overnight and weekend activity. That directly addresses a longstanding operational bottleneck in traditional payment infrastructure, where cut-off times and settlement windows can constrain responsiveness—especially for time-sensitive transfers.

It also places SWIFT in the middle of a broader shift in financial infrastructure: banks are increasingly exploring tokenized assets and settlement, but they want that evolution to happen within trusted, regulated systems rather than as isolated experiments.

Part of a wider push toward tokenized settlement

SWIFT’s move lands amid a series of parallel developments from major financial players that point to renewed momentum in tokenized deposits and securities infrastructure.

Earlier, a consortium of banks—including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citibank, Barclays, BNY, and Wells Fargo—announced plans to launch a tokenized deposit network in the first half of 2027. The Clearing House would operate the network and connect traditional payment rails with digital asset infrastructure to enable 24/7 settlement.

In the markets sphere, the New York Stock Exchange previously partnered with tokenization platform Securitize to build blockchain-based infrastructure for tokenized stocks and exchange-traded funds. Separately, the parent company of the NYSE, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), has also shared plans for a tokenized securities venue aimed at 24/7 trading, instant settlement, stablecoin-based funding, and onchain settlement.

Taken together, these efforts suggest a sector-wide attempt to reduce the friction between “tokenized” workflows and the operational realities of regulated financial institutions. SWIFT’s pilot is another data point in that transition, particularly because SWIFT is not an issuer or a single-venue market—it is the messaging backbone for interbank communication globally.

What to watch next after initial go-live

SWIFT said it plans to expand the ledger’s functionality and availability after the initial controlled go-live phase. That sequencing matters: a controlled rollout typically helps institutions validate technical performance and governance requirements before scaling participation or expanding use cases.

For users ranging from treasury teams to payments operators, the next milestones will likely center on practical interoperability—how efficiently tokenized deposit transfers work across participating institutions and how smoothly the ledger integrates into existing operational and compliance routines. Investors and builders in digital asset infrastructure will also want to monitor whether SWIFT’s ledger becomes a repeatable baseline for cross-border settlement beyond the pilot group, or whether it remains a narrow-use experiment before wider adoption.

In the near term, the most important question is whether the pilots can demonstrate that 24/7 tokenized cross-border payments can coexist with established financial controls at scale. If SWIFT’s expansion follows the same logic, the ledger could become a significant bridge between traditional messaging standards and the settlement expectations of modern commerce.

Perpetual futures are on track to become one of the dominant trading instruments in global finance, with decentralized exchange Hyperliquid demonstrating how blockchain-based infrastructure could challenge traditional markets, according to Pantera Capital.

The blockchain-focused asset manager said in a Wednesday X post that perpetual futures offer structural advantages over traditional derivatives, including 24/7 trading, no contract expiries, simpler position management and continuous price discovery, making them increasingly attractive beyond crypto markets.

Pantera, an investor in the Hyperliquid ecosystem, said Hyperliquid has become the leading example of that shift by expanding perpetual futures beyond cryptocurrencies into equities, commodities and stock indexes as part of founder Jeff Yan’s vision of “housing all of finance.”

Hyperliquid’s growth has drawn attention from traditional finance, including NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), whose CEO, Jeffrey Sprecher, urged regulators to create a “level playing field” for launching 24/7 onchain perpetual futures contracts.

Pantera Capital said Hyperliquid has increased the market share of onchain perps, as DEX perps volumes rose to 14% of centralized exchange (CEX) perps volume, up from less than 1% in early 2023 when Hyperliquid launched.

Hyperliquid accounts for roughly 40% of onchain perpetual futures trading volume, according to Pantera. It ranks as the fourth-largest fee-generating protocol in the crypto industry, generating $13.5 million in weekly fees in the past seven days, according to DefiLlama data.

Top protocols by weekly fees generated. Source: DefiLlama

Related: UK payments blueprint outlines tokenized payments for ‘multi-money ecosystem’

Traditional finance embraces 24/7 markets

Cryptocurrency platforms and TradFi institutions are bringing more traditional investment products under blockchain wrappers.

On May 22, OKX announced plans to launch perpetual futures based on ICE’s Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude benchmarks under a partnership with the exchange operator.

Earlier in March, the NYSE partnered with tokenization platform Securitize as part of a broader effort to develop blockchain-based stock trading infrastructure with 24/7 trading and settlement for Wall Street.

In January, the NYSE’s parent company, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), shared plans for a tokenized securities venue designed for 24/7 trading, instant settlement, stablecoin-based funding and onchain settlement.  

Magazine: The 5 types of real world assets being tokenized fastest onchain

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) June meeting, released on 30 June, suggested that policymakers are not yet ready to rule out further policy tightening. Board members noted persistent excess demand and broad-based inflationary pressures across the economy, leaving the door open for another interest rate increase if required. Against this backdrop, the interest rate differential between Australia and the United States continues to support the Australian dollar, particularly as markets have scaled back expectations for further tightening by the Fed in the coming months. This combination of a relatively hawkish RBA and a more cautious Fed has helped underpin demand for the Australian dollar, although further macroeconomic data from both economies will likely be needed to reinforce this trend.

Technical Picture

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD recovered after declining from the 0.7080 area to June lows near 0.6865. During the rebound, the pair broke above its descending trendline, which some market participants may interpret as a sign that the previous downtrend has come to an end.

The pair is currently trading above the upper boundary of the current market profile at 0.6930 and is approaching the local high around 0.6960. Below the current price lies the Point of Control (POC) at approximately 0.6896, followed by the lower boundary of the market profile at 0.6887. This area could be viewed by buyers as a potential support zone.

Beneath this range sits the green support level 0.6865, representing the next significant reference point should a deeper correction develop. The RSI + MAs indicator remains close to the equilibrium zone, with readings of 55, 51, and 53. The moving averages are broadly flat, suggesting a lack of strong momentum and indicating that the market may be pausing before choosing its next direction.

Summary

The pair’s position above the market profile and the break of the descending trendline may be viewed as supportive for buyers. However, the approach towards the 0.6960 resistance area could limit further gains unless additional fundamental catalysts emerge.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Key Takeaways

• JPMorgan identifies Strategy’s bitcoin selling as a minor concern compared to structural threats
• Private blockchain infrastructure adoption by financial institutions represents the primary challenge
• Financial institutions favor permissioned blockchains offering identity verification, confidentiality, and regulatory alignment
• Digital bank deposits on private chains could diminish demand for public blockchain stablecoins
• The tokenized real-world asset sector valued at $50 billion may increasingly migrate to private systems

While Strategy’s bitcoin selling activity has created concern among market participants, JPMorgan’s research team suggests cryptocurrency investors should focus their attention elsewhere.

According to a client briefing authored by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team, the more substantial challenge originates from legacy financial institutions constructing blockchain infrastructure that circumvents public networks such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Should critical financial functions including tokenization, payment processing, and transaction settlement migrate toward private, controlled infrastructure, public blockchain networks may experience diminished transaction activity, reduced market liquidity, and constrained capital inflows.

“Strategy does not represent the primary structural challenge facing bitcoin,” the research team stated. Their analysis emphasizes that institutional blockchain implementation is completely sidestepping public cryptocurrency networks.

Strategy currently maintains custody of approximately 4% of bitcoin’s total circulating supply. The company’s structured Bitcoin Monetization Program has established bidirectional market flow. While JPMorgan recognizes this arrangement may generate intermittent downward price pressure, analysts characterized it as a subordinate consideration.

Financial Institutions Favor Permissioned Networks

Traditional financial entities are migrating toward permissioned blockchain architectures because these systems deliver privacy management, customer identification compliance, legal recourse mechanisms, and regulatory clarity — capabilities that public blockchains struggle to replicate.

JPMorgan referenced its proprietary Kinexys platform as a case study. This permissioned network has facilitated more than $4 trillion in aggregate transaction volume for institutional participants.

The Bank for International Settlements has similarly cautioned against deploying public blockchains for critical financial infrastructure components. Instead, the BIS advocates for permissioned unified ledger frameworks.

Financial institutions are engineering tokenized deposit instruments — digitized representations of conventional bank deposits operating within established banking regulations and deposit protection schemes. Widespread implementation of these instruments could substantially decrease institutional reliance on stablecoins for payment functions.

SWIFT’s blockchain exploration and sovereign digital currency initiatives including the digital euro and digital yuan may additionally reinforce these regulated alternative systems.

Tokenized Asset Market Faces Strategic Inflection

The market for tokenized real-world assets presently stands at approximately $50 billion in value. A considerable portion currently resides on Ethereum, though JPMorgan analysts attribute this distribution primarily to initial experimentation phases.

As institutional participation expands, asset issuance, custody arrangements, and settlement operations may progressively transition toward private infrastructure frameworks that more effectively address identity management, confidentiality standards, and governance protocols.

Public blockchain networks may retain relevance for asset distribution and constrained secondary market activity, but could experience declining centrality in the ecosystem.

The research team additionally highlighted the DTCC’s development of tokenization processes on permissioned infrastructure, while noting Securitize has deployed tokenized assets across Solana and Avalanche through regulated channels.

Even assuming the CLARITY Act achieves legislative passage this year, JPMorgan maintains it may prove insufficient to address these fundamental structural challenges. The analysts suggested the legislation could potentially accelerate banks’ tokenized deposit issuance capabilities, thereby reinforcing their competitive positioning.

The team indicated their assessment could shift if public and private blockchain ecosystems evolve in parallel, stablecoins expand under enhanced regulatory frameworks, or bitcoin sustains its trajectory primarily as a value preservation asset.

The amount of Ether bridged to Robinhood’s new layer-2 blockchain exceeded $70 million in just the first week, according to Token Terminal. 

Robinhood Chain, an EVM-compatible Arbitrum-based layer-2 network that uses ETH as its native gas token, launched on July 1 with the company describing it as “AI-native and purpose-built for real-world assets.” 

“If adoption continues, the chain could become a meaningful new source of demand for ETH,” said Token Terminal on Thursday. 

Robinhood has also offered tokenized stocks to customers in more than 120 countries, responding to a surging demand for tokenized US equities. Ethereum and its layer-2 scaling networks have been a popular choice for tokenized real-world assets (RWA) with more than 50% market share, according to RWA.xyz, and this move could cement that position even further. 

Turning liquidity into economic activity

“Robinhood Chain is rapidly turning liquidity into economic activity,” said Token Terminal in a separate post on X. 

Robinhood Chain’s daily active users reached 194,000 while daily revenue has grown to $39,000, equivalent to a $14 million annualized revenue run rate, within the chain’s first week, it said. 

DefiLlama, a decentralized finance data platform, shows similar figures, showing Robinhood Chain has a total value locked of 46,748 ETH, worth around $83 million at current market prices. Thursday’s inflows alone totaled 31,855 ETH, or around $55 million.  

Uniswap founder Hayden Adams said Friday that most of what is happening on the Robinhood Chain is ETH-denominated. 

“It’s the base pair for trading, the highest volume asset, and the gas token to pay for blockspace. It also burns ETH on L1 to pay data storage fees,” he added. 

ETH bridged to Robinhood Chain tops $70 million. Source: Token Terminal 

Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute, told Cointelegraph that it was “strongly bullish” and early volume “validates the L2 flywheel,” as a “meaningful new demand sink.”

“By using ETH as the native gas token on this high-velocity Arbitrum L2, every transaction I track creates direct, recurring demand while locking capital and onboarding Robinhood’s massive user base.” 

Related: L1s face decentralization ‘tug-of-war’ as adoption grows: Injective CEO

Tim Sun, HashKey Group senior researcher, said it was “a clear, structural positive for ETH.”

“For Ethereum, the most direct benefit is that Robinhood Chain uses ETH for gas,” he said. “As bridged assets, wallet addresses, and on-chain transactions grow, new demand for ETH is generated.”

“However, the deeper significance lies not just in how much gas is consumed, but in Robinhood’s choice to build its own on-chain financial ecosystem within the Ethereum network. This further solidifies the Ethereum mainnet’s position as the ultimate settlement layer and liquidity foundation for tokenized assets.”

Bulls argue Ethereum’s long-term growth thesis comes from RWA tokenization, agentic AI payments, institutional adoption and network upgrades, such as Glamsterdam, expected before the end of 2026, which is expected to increase layer 1 capacity. 

ETH prices ticked up on Friday to reach $1,775 but remain at multi-year bear market lows, down 64% from their August 2025 peak. 

Features: The biggest blockchain upgrades still to come in 2026

The European Parliament has passed legislation allowing tech firms to scan messages for child sexual abuse material until 2028, a controversial law dubbed “chat control” by critics.

EU lawmakers on Thursday largely voted against extending the regulation, dubbed “Chat Control 1.0,” but stopping it required 361 lawmakers to reject it. Only 314 voted to stop the law, and 276 supported it.

The vote advances reviving the “chat control” rules that expired in April, and has been a controversial topic among privacy and cryptography advocates, as the originally designed law breaks the principle behind encrypting messages.

Parliament, however, passed an exemption to exclude “communications to which end-to-end encryption is, has been or will be applied,” handing a small win to cypherpunks.

Pirate Party MEP Markéta Gregorová, whose party put forward the amendment to exempt end-to-end encrypted messages, said its success was “a bittersweet victory.” 

“Protecting encryption was one of our priorities, and I am therefore glad that we managed to secure an absolute majority for an amendment that at least preserves encryption. At the same time, however, voluntary mass scanning unfortunately passed,” she said.

The law’s supporters argue it is vital to protect children and combat the spread of abusive material.

The parliament’s laws with amendments will be sent back to the Council of the EU, a body of ministers from the bloc’s member nations who will approve or reject the legislation.

Chat Control battle “just getting started”

The vote on Thursday comes after the European Parliament voted through a rarely used urgent procedure on Tuesday that brought lawmakers back to vote on whether to extend a legal framework for the laws that expired in April.

Since the framework expired, messaging platforms such as WhatsApp have been allowed to take their own voluntary measures to seek out those sharing abusive material.

In March, Parliament had rejected a temporary extension of the scheme while a new permanent version of the law, dubbed “Chat Control 2.0,” was under discussion, before the European People’s Party, the largest group in Parliament, revived the extension in the urgent procedure vote on Tuesday.

The party had largely voted against extending the laws in March because of amendments that restricted the scope of scans, but its leader, Manfred Weber, has been looking for ways to push through the extension without changes.

Related: EU committee advances digital euro bill after key vote

Breyer, the former MEP, said the “political battle over the permanent ‘Chat Control 2.0’ is just getting started.”

“The resistance we saw in Parliament today was so strong that finding a majority for permanent, suspicionless mass scanning in future negotiations is a complete pipe dream,” he said.

Negotiations for the permanent law, or “Chat Control 2.0,” will resume in September, with lawmakers disputing whether message scanning should be targeted or applied broadly.

Features: Crypto industry looks to stablecoins and DeFi revisions in MiCA 2.0