TLDR

• CryptoQuant identifies $53,600 as Bitcoin’s realized price and a potential bottom zone.
• Bitcoin traded near $62,150 after falling to around $59,000 last week.
• Total Bitcoin demand dropped by 652,000 BTC, the largest weekly contraction since January 2022.
• One-year apparent demand growth turned negative and fell below its moving average.
• Thirty-day ETF demand growth declined to negative 74,000 BTC since January 2024 launch.

Bitcoin could approach $53,600 as a potential floor while demand metrics remain weak, CryptoQuant reported on Wednesday. The firm said this level matches the current realized price, which tracks the aggregate onchain cost basis. However, research head Julio Moreno stated that demand conditions remain “deeply unfavorable” and no durable recovery has formed.

Bitcoin Realized Price Signals Possible Bottom Zone

CryptoQuant identified $53,600 as Bitcoin’s realized price and a possible bottom area. Moreno said Bitcoin historically bottoms near or slightly below this metric in bear cycles. He told The Block, “Historically, it’s a level that would confirm a bottom.”

However, Moreno added that price may not necessarily hit that level. He said demand weakness keeps that possibility open for now. Bitcoin fell to about $59,000 last week, placing it 9% above $53,600.

After the drop, Bitcoin rebounded and traded near $62,150. In November 2022, Bitcoin briefly fell below its realized price during the FTX selloff. It later recovered, reinforcing that level as a key valuation reference.

Demand Metrics Show Persistent Weakness

CryptoQuant reported a 652,000 Bitcoin contraction in total demand last week. The firm combines speculative futures activity and apparent spot demand in that measure. Moreno wrote that both segments weakened as Bitcoin dropped below $60,000.

Long liquidations increased and spot selling accelerated during that period. Meanwhile, one-year apparent demand growth turned negative and declined below its moving average. Moreno said this marked the fastest pace of decline since February 2024.

He wrote that fewer buyers exist today compared with a year ago. He added that this trend “removes the demand foundation required to sustain any price recovery.” The report also pointed to slowing institutional demand through spot exchange-traded funds.

Thirty-day ETF demand growth fell to negative 74,000 Bitcoin. CryptoQuant said this marked the weakest reading since U.S. spot ETFs launched in January 2024. Moreno wrote that ETFs now contribute to net supply expansion as investors reduce exposure.

At the same time, realized losses have not reached capitulation levels. Bitcoin holders realized 187,000 Bitcoin in losses over the past 30 days. That compares with 400,000 Bitcoin during the February 2026 drop below $60,000.

During the November 2022 market bottom, realized losses reached 1.2 million Bitcoin. Moreno said, “The absence of a capitulation-level spike in realized losses indicates that a large cohort of holders is still above water at $59,000.” He added that heavy selling and seller exhaustion usually precede major bottoms.

Moreno concluded that the current price should serve as a valuation floor candidate. He said a bull market requires a constructive demand recovery. He stated that such a recovery does not yet appear in the data.

Tether is leading a funding round of as much as $1.4 billion for German tech company NEURA Robotics, deepening the stablecoin issuer’s push into artificial intelligence and robotics.

The round, which values NEURA at roughly $7 billion, is expected to include a mix of strategic and financial investors. Tether said it is leading the raise through its investment arm, which deploys capital from the company’s profits and excess reserves across sectors including AI, energy and digital infrastructure.

NEURA said it expects to integrate Tether’s Wallet Development Kit into its robotic systems, enabling machines to receive payments and execute transactions within predefined parameters. The companies also plan to deploy Tether’s QVAC AI runtime, which is designed to run models directly on devices rather than through cloud-based infrastructure.

Tweet from Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether. Source: Tether on X.com

Founded in 2019 and headquartered in Metzingen, Germany, NEURA Robotics develops humanoid robots, robotic arms, autonomous mobile robots and other AI-powered systems for industrial and commercial applications. It is building an ecosystem called Neuraverse, a software platform intended to connect robots, AI models, data and services.

The investment follows reports from November 2025 that Tether was considering a 1 billion euro ($1.15 billion) investment in the company. The Financial Times reported at the time that the deal could value the tech maker at between $9.3 billion and $11.6 billion, though neither company confirmed the discussions.

Today’s announcement did not disclose how much money Tether is contributing to the current funding round.

Related: Tether, Georgia plan lari-backed stablecoin GELT under new rules

Tether expands AI and payments push

The NEURA investment is part of Tether’s broader push beyond stablecoins into artificial intelligence, payments and emerging technologies. The company reported $1.04 billion in net profit during the first quarter of 2026 and said its excess reserves reached a record $8.23 billion, providing additional capital for investments outside its core USDT (USDT) business.

Source: DefiLlama

In recent months, Tether has accelerated its push into AI through its QVAC platform. In March, the company introduced a training framework that enables AI models to be trained and run on consumer hardware, including smartphones and non-Nvidia chips. Two months later, it unveiled QVAC MedPsy, a family of medical AI models designed to run directly on smartphones and other devices rather than through cloud-based infrastructure.

The company has also sought to expand the ecosystem around its technology stack. In May, Tether launched a grants program to fund developers building local-first AI and payment applications using its open-source tools, including QVAC and its Wallet Development Kit.

In a January 2025 interview, CEO Paolo Ardoino said AI-powered humanoid robots could become commonplace within the next decade as advances in computing and automation reshape the workforce.

Tether issues the $187 billion USDT stablecoin, which controls roughly 59% of the global stablecoin market, giving it one of the largest balance sheets in the digital asset industry.

Magazine: Kraken’s $600M stablecoin firm, Huione scandal deepens: Asia Express

Curve Finance has launched Llamalend v2 on Optimism with support for isolated lending markets and non-crvUSD borrowing pairs, opening the first phase of a lending system upgrade ahead of a planned Ethereum mainnet rollout later this year.

According to Curve Finance, the new version removes a key limitation from Llamalend v1, which was built around crvUSD as the borrowed asset. Markets can now be created using supported assets on both sides of a lending pair, subject to governance approval, allowing collateral and borrowed assets to be selected without requiring crvUSD.

The deployment begins on Optimism, where Curve said users will initially be able to access three isolated markets: ETH against wstETH, wstETH against USDC, and WBTC against USDC.

All three markets will launch with borrow caps set at zero, meaning users can lend assets but cannot borrow until governance approves debt limits through a DAO vote expected to take about seven days.

LP tokens can now support borrowing activity

Alongside the expansion beyond crvUSD markets, Curve has introduced support for LP tokens as collateral. According to the protocol, liquidity providers can deposit Curve LP tokens, continue earning trading fees from liquidity pools, and borrow against those positions simultaneously.

The update ties lending activity more closely to Curve’s exchange infrastructure. Curve said the framework could also support other productive collateral types in the future, including yield-bearing vault assets and principal tokens used in fixed-yield strategies.

Llamalend v2 retains the liquidation model introduced with the original protocol in early 2024. Rather than liquidating a position at a single price point, the system uses a liquidation range that gradually converts collateral into the borrowed asset as prices move through predefined levels.

Curve previously said the design was created to reduce concentrated liquidation pressure during periods of market stress and give borrowers more time to manage positions.

Risk controls remain separated on a market-by-market basis. According to Curve, each lending market carries its own collateral asset, borrowed asset, oracle configuration, borrowing limits, and risk parameters. Borrow caps start at zero and must receive governance approval before debt can accumulate.

LlamaRisk reviews markets before borrowing begins

For the initial rollout, Curve said LlamaRisk will review proposed collateral assets and oversee market assessments before markets move through governance. The protocol noted that isolated markets reduce the possibility of risks spreading between unrelated lending pairs.

Support for the launch includes a 250,000 OP token grant from the Optimism Foundation, according to Curve’s announcement. The incentives are expected to be distributed over roughly two months to encourage liquidity and participation.

Curve’s technical documentation also states that an initial incentives campaign will distribute 100,000 OP tokens through Merkl across the first markets.

Before enabling borrowing, Curve said it chose to deploy on Optimism to observe contract behavior, integrations, and user activity in a lower-risk environment. A launch on the Ethereum Mainnet is expected during the second half of the year.

The rollout follows other recent lending-related initiatives from Curve. As previously reported by crypto.news, the protocol introduced a bad-debt recovery framework for LlamaLend markets that converts distressed lending positions into tradable on-chain claims.

Curve founder Michael Egorov described that mechanism as an investment tool that could eventually be applied to other markets if successful.

XRP’s on-chain activity has cooled dramatically since its 2025 surge, according to Glassnode’s latest on-chain metrics. The 90-day average of total XRP network fees has plunged to about 500 XRP from roughly 5,900 XRP in February, a 91.5% drop that points to a sharp slowdown in on-chain demand after the mid-2025 price spike that briefly pushed XRP above $3. The pullback in on-chain activity mirrors a broader shift in trader behavior and market structure after a period of intense speculation.

Compounding the view of a cooling market, XRP’s 90-day realized profit-to-loss ratio has collapsed to 0.38, suggesting that more coins are being realized at losses than profits on-chain. At the height of its price run in January and July 2025, when XRP traded near $3.40, the ratio reached around 50 as profit-taking dominated flows. The current regime, by contrast, signals a possible capitulation environment where selling pressure is less about wholesale distribution by big holders and more about risk-off sentiment and leverage-driven liquidations.

Key takeaways

• On-chain demand for XRP has slumped sharply since the 2025 rally, with the 90-day average of network fees falling 91.5% to around 500 XRP.
• The 90-day realized profit-to-loss ratio has fallen to 0.38, indicating losses are being realized more than profits as investors exit positions.
• Exchange-related activity shows a cooling dynamic: large XRP transfers to centralized venues like Binance have declined since the 2025 peak, hinting at a shift away from mass whale distribution.
• A defined accumulation zone between roughly $1.00 and $0.65 is taking shape, anchored by technical levels such as a fair value gap and a high-volume node around $0.50–$0.65.
• Despite near-term weakness, a subset of analysts maintains a longer-term bullish thesis, with a target range of about $15–$18, underscoring the ongoing debate over XRP’s eventual fundamental trajectory.

On-chain activity and what it signals

Glassnode’s analysis stresses that XRP’s on-chain activity has cooled substantially after the explosive run that pushed the token above $3 in the first half of 2025. The drastic drop in the 90-day fee average—from thousands of XRP to a few hundred—suggests a cooling in the network’s transaction activity and a retrenchment of speculative demand. In practical terms, the fee data are often treated as a proxy for everyday transactional use on the XRP ledger, and the current readings imply a lull in users and a normalization after a period of exuberant activity.

Observers are watching whether this cooling translates into a more stable or even depressed price regime. The price action that followed the mid-2025 spike created a technical environment where traders now see a broad band between $1.00 and $0.65 as a critical zone. The question is whether buyers will accumulate enough demand to defend that range or if the market will test lower levels in a broader risk-off cycle.

Profit dynamics: from profit-taking to capitulation?

The realized profit-to-loss ratio offers a window into how investors are managing their XRP positions as market conditions shift. The ratio’s plunge to 0.38 means that for every $1 of realized profit, approximately $2.63 of losses have been realized, a pattern often observed when a market moves from a distribution phase into capitulation, albeit without the same intensity of selling by large holders as in prior cycles.

For context, the ratio reached about 50 during the weeks when XRP hovered near $3.40 in 2025, indicating heavy profit-taking at those price points. The reversal to a low ratio is consistent with a broader shift away from aggressive on-chain profit-taking and toward a more cautious posture among market participants. While this doesn’t preclude a return to stronger hands pushing prices higher, it does highlight a renewed emphasis on risk controls and stop-out dynamics in a market that has already experienced substantial speculative fervor.

Whale flows, exchanges, and the bigger picture

On the exchange-front, data from CryptoQuant offers a complementary view to Glassnode’s on-chain activity. Analysts have flagged a decline in transfers of XRP to major exchanges, particularly among the higher-cohort holders. Notably, inflows of 100,000–1,000,000 XRP and those above 1,000,000 XRP have weakened since the 2025 peak, with declines of about 15% and 20%, respectively, since October 2025. The trend points to a reduction in the step-like distribution that often accompanies top-of-cycle sell-offs.

Analysts caution that the near-term price weakness appears more connected to leverage-driven liquidations and a risk-off mindset than to a broad, coordinated dump by large holders. In other words, while large holders are still active participants in the space, their activity does not appear to be the dominant force shaping XRP’s price action at this juncture. The combination of fading on-chain demand and shifting exchange dynamics creates a nuanced backdrop for traders who must weigh potential liquidity gaps against the possibility of renewed demand in a broader crypto-market upcycle.

In terms of regional and behavioral signals, the XRP ecosystem still shows a classic pattern: from a few clear acceleration points to a more cautious phase where traders hunt for lower-risk entries. CryptoQuant’s analysis highlights how inflows to exchanges from large holders have cooled, which historically has preceded or accompanied broader corrections in the XRP market. Yet, as ever in volatile crypto markets, these trends must be contextualized within macro conditions, liquidity cycles, and evolving regulatory dynamics that continue to shape investor risk appetite.

Technical map: where buyers are watching

From a chart perspective, XRP has been consolidating within a zone that many traders view as a potential bottoming region. The weekly price action points to a cluster of technical levels between $1.00 and $0.65. A notable fair value gap created during XRP’s late-2024 rally spans roughly $0.63 to $1.00, and price has shown movement back toward this zone after breaching the $1.40 level on the downside. Visible-range volume profile data indicate relatively light activity below current prices until a high-volume node sits around $0.50–$0.65, suggesting a meaningful area of liquidity in that neighborhood.

The point of control—the price area with the most traded volume—sits near $0.52–$0.55, reinforcing the idea that this range has become a magnet for immediate supply and demand. In addition, XRP’s five-year ascending trendline projects to intersect near $0.60–$0.65 in the coming months, a confluence of support that could anchor a potential bounce if macro conditions support renewed risk appetite.

On the community front, market observers have begun highlighting the $0.60–$0.65 band as a practical accumulation zone. Traders such as Crypto Patel have identified $1.00–$0.60 as a preferred range to accumulate, while others like Javon Marks continue to model a longer-term bull scenario with a target of roughly $15–$18 per XRP—a move that would imply roughly 1,100% upside from current levels. While such a trajectory remains contingent on a sustainable macro and market-driven re-pricing of risk, the convergence of on-chain, exchange, and technical signals keeps the narrative alive for those investors betting on a reacceleration in XRP’s adoption and liquidity cycle.

What to watch next

As the market digests a quieter on-chain environment and a shift in exchange activity, XRP traders will be closely watching whether demand can re-emerge around key support around $0.60–$0.65 and whether buying interest can sustain a move back toward the $1.00 threshold and beyond. The overarching question remains whether the longer-term bull thesis can absorb another round of macro shocks or if a fresh catalyst—regulatory clarity, improved liquidity conditions, or institutional participation—could reframe XRP’s trajectory in 2026.

Brad Garlinghouse has endorsed claims that Wall Street firms are increasingly pursuing the same institutional finance strategy that XRP was once criticized for supporting.

According to comments shared on X, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse responded with a one-word endorsement after Flare co-founder Hugo Philion argued that many parts of the crypto industry are now embracing the bank-focused approach that XRP and Ripple promoted from the beginning.

The exchange began after an X user highlighted remarks Philion made during a recent interview discussing Ripple’s long-standing role in digital payments. The user wrote that parts of the crypto sector had mocked XRP’s institutional vision in the past but were now attempting to replicate it. Garlinghouse replied simply, “True.”