Tether and Circle are still competing for stablecoin dominance, with Tether’s USDT representing approximately 63% market share on CoinGecko’s Top USD Stablecoins chart, and Circle’s USDC representing approximately 25%.

This dominant duopoly hasn’t been meaningfully threatened despite the emergence of new competitors like USD1, issued by the Trump-affiliated World Liberty Financial.

The two coins still retain substantial differences, including in how their reserves are constructed and maintained and how they’ve each approached important political questions in Washington D.C.

USDT and USDC growth

In the United States the GENIUS Act, which was signed into law on July 18 last year, sets the regulatory guidelines for stablecoins. This newfound legitimacy may have helped contribute to this growth.

Circle seems to believe it’s prepared for this, claiming that it was “responsible before it was required” and is “ready now”; Tether, meanwhile, is launching USAT, led by former White House advisor Bo Hines, to target the US.

Circle’s stock is publicly traded, and its stock price has increased by more than 50% so far this year. Data from Yahoo Finance says the market capitalization for Circle is approximately $34 billion.

Tether is still privately held, so its valuation is far less definite. It also reportedly tried to raise funds at a valuation of $500 billion, something that led investors to balk.

USDT and USDC reserves

Tether’s attestation suggests that it holds approximately $8.2 billion as “equity,” which represents the difference between its stated value of assets and its liabilities (issued tokens).

This makes up approximately 4% of its market capitalization.

Circle’s attestation, meanwhile, suggests that it has approximately $76 million more in assets than it has circulating USDC. This represents approximately 0.1% of its market capitalization.

Key points:

• Bitcoin has pulled back to the $76,000 level, a crucial near-term support level to watch.
• Several major altcoins have broken below their near-term support levels, indicating that the bulls have given up.

Bitcoin (BTC) came under pressure on Monday after US President Donald Trump warned Iran that the “clock is ticking” and they better get moving fast. Analyst CryptoRover said in a post on X that a potential US military operation against Iran “is extremely dangerous for $BTC.”

Institutional investors also seem to be turning cautious in the short term. According to SoSoValue data, spot BTC exchange-traded funds recorded $1 billion in weekly net outflows. That was the first net outflow after six successive weeks of inflows totaling $3.4 billion.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView

While several traders are cautious on BTC’s prospects in the near term, Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, continued to buy BTC. Strategy purchased 24,869 Bitcoin for $2.01 billion between May 11 and 17, boosting its holdings to 843,738 BTC, per Monday’s 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. 

Could BTC and the major altcoins bounce off their crucial support levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out. 

S&P 500 Index price prediction

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rallied to a new all-time high of 7,517 on Thursday, where short-term traders booked profits.

SPX daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The index may pull back to the 20-day exponential moving average (7,273), a crucial support level to watch. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with strength, it suggests a positive sentiment. That increases the likelihood of an uptrend resuming toward the 8,000 level.

Sellers will have to tug the price below the 20-day EMA to weaken the bullish momentum. If they do that, the index may witness a deeper pullback to the 7,002 level.

US Dollar Index price prediction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) turned up from the 97.74 support and broke above the moving averages.

DXY daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

There is minor resistance at 99.34, but if the bulls sustain the price above it, the index may reach the stiff overhead resistance at 100.54. Sellers are expected to fiercely defend the 100.54 level, as a break and close above it would signal the start of a new uptrend. The index may then surge to 101.97.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level or from the 100.54 resistance and breaks below the 50-day simple moving average (98.98), it suggests that bears remain active at higher levels. That may keep the index range-bound between 97.74 and 100.54 for a few more days.

Bitcoin price prediction

BTC continued its slide and has reached the 50-day SMA ($75,627), suggesting bears are attempting to take charge.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Buyers will have to sustain the BTC price above the 50-day SMA to retain the advantage. The first sign of strength will be a close above the 20-day EMA ($78,715). That opens the door to a rally toward the $84,000 resistance.

Instead, if the price closes below the 50-day SMA, it increases the risk of a drop to the support line of the ascending channel pattern. Buyers are expected to vigorously protect the support line, as a break below it may sink the BTC/USDT pair to $65,000.

Ether price prediction

Ether (ETH) continued its downward march and closed below the support line of the ascending channel pattern on Sunday.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($2,255) has begun to turn lower, and the RSI is near oversold territory, indicating that bears are in control. Any recovery attempt is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA. If the ETH price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a drop to $1,916 increases.

Buyers have an uphill task ahead of them. They will have to drive and maintain the ETH/USDT pair above the moving averages to signal a comeback.

XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) has dipped below the 50-day SMA ($1,39), indicating that the bears are attempting to gain the upper hand.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price closes below the 50-day SMA, the next likely stop is the solid support at $1.27. Buyers are expected to defend the $1.27 level with all their might, as a close below it may sink the XRP/USDT pair to $1.11 and later to the psychological level at $1.

Buyers are expected to face selling at the downtrend line and then at the $1.61 level. A break and close above the $1.61 resistance signal a short-term trend change. The XRP price may then march to $2 and subsequently to $2.40.

BNB price prediction

BNB (BNB) pulled back from the $687 overhead resistance and broke below the 20-day EMA ($648). 

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

There is minor support at the 50-day SMA ($637), but if the level cracks, the BNB/USDT pair may plummet to the solid support at $570. This is a crucial level to watch out for, as a close below $570 indicates the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The pair may then collapse toward $500.

On the contrary, if the BNB price turns up from the 50-day SMA, it suggests demand at lower levels. Buyers will have to thrust the price above the $687 resistance to indicate strength. The pair may then rally to $730 and then to $790. 

Solana price prediction

Solana (SOL) closed below the 50-day SMA ($85) on Sunday, indicating that the bears are on a comeback.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

There is support at $82, but the recovery is expected to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($88). If the SOL price turns sharply down from the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a break below the $82 support increases. That opens the doors for a drop to the $76 level.

The first sign of strength will be a close above the 20-day EMA. That shows solid buying at lower levels. The bulls will be back in the driver’s seat after the SOL/USDT pair closes above the $98 resistance.

Related: Hyperliquid eyes 55% price rise after Silicon Valley investor’s ‘massive HYPE buy’

Dogecoin price prediction

Dogecoin (DOGE) has dipped below its 20-day EMA ($0.11), suggesting that bulls have given up in the short term.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a range-bound action between $0.09 and $0.12 for some more time. 

Buyers will have to push and sustain the DOGE price above the $0.12 resistance to signal the start of a new up move. The DOGE/USDT pair may then climb to $0.14 and later to $0.16.

On the downside, a break and close below the $0.09 support indicates the resumption of the downtrend. The pair may then slump to $0.08.

Hyperliquid price prediction

Hyperliquid (HYPE) has been volatile for the past few days, indicating a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.

HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls pushed the HYPE price above the $45.77 resistance, but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels. Buyers will have to secure a close above the $45.77 level to clear the path for a rally to the $50 to $51.43 zone.

The 20-day EMA ($42.55) is the critical support to watch out for on the downside. A break below it suggests that the HYPE/USDT pair may consolidate inside the $38.17 to $47.32 range for a while.

Cardano price prediction

Cardano (ADA) has dipped below the 50-day SMA ($0.25), indicating that the bears continue to exert pressure.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The flattish moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest the ADA/USDT pair may oscillate inside the $0.22 to $0.31 range for a few more days.

The next trending move may begin on a close above the $0.31 resistance or below the $0.22 support. If the ADA price turns up and breaks above $0.31, the pair may pick up momentum and soar toward $0.40. Alternatively, a close below $0.22 signals the resumption of the downtrend toward the target objective of $0.13.

Ether (ETH) extended a downbeat spell last week after hitting resistance near $2,400, with the price sliding to roughly $2,100 on Monday. Market observers described the move as a sign that sellers have regained control, marking a shift in near-term momentum for the largest smart contract platform by market capitalization.

The wave of selling came as liquidity pressure mounted on major venues and investment products, reinforcing a narrative of waning demand. Binance’s exchange data showed that taker sell volume surged as ETH breached crucial downside levels, a signal, according to analysts, of forced risk-off positioning among active traders. In parallel, fund flows underscored a broader withdrawal of institutional interest in Ethereum-related exposure.

According to SoSoValue, US-based spot Ethereum ETFs posted net outflows for five consecutive days, totaling $255 million. Globally, Ethereum-focused investment products rang up about $249 million in outflows for the week ending May 15, the largest weekly figure since early February, according to data tracked by CoinShares. These outflows suggest the market is experiencing a pause or reversal in institutional demand, at least in the near term.

Key takeaways

• Ether drops roughly 12% after rejection at $2,400, with price extending lower toward $2,100 as bears reassert control.
• Binance taker sell volume spikes above $1.1 billion during the downside move, indicating aggressive selling pressure from traders on futures platforms.
• ETF and fund outflows imply waning institutional demand for Ethereum exposure in the short run, potentially constraining upside momentum.

Trading dynamics amid thinning demand

Price action around ETH has reflected a confluence of selling pressure and shifting investor positioning. Data from Binance shows a surge in taker sell volume as ETH moved below the $2,100 level, a pattern that traders sometimes interpret as forced de-risking or short-term bearish pressure from active market participants. CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha captured the sentiment, noting that while the spikes do not automatically confirm a reversal into a deeper downtrend, they do indicate buyers were unable to absorb selling pressure during the move.

Analysts have increasingly linked price action to a widening macro and sectoral dynamics that have weighed on Ethereum demand. A related thread of analysis has tied ETH selling pressure to external catalysts, with coverage noting that surging oil prices have been identified as a driver of selling pressure in Ether by market commentator Tom Lee. The observation points to a broader risk-off environment where macro shifts can translate into crypto selling, particularly for assets with the most liquidity and sensitivity to market sentiment.

The withdrawal of liquidity from Ethereum-focused investment products aligns with the price action. SoSoValue’s data shows a five-day streak of net outflows from US spot ETH exposure totaling $255 million, a clear sign that institutions are rebalancing away from long ETH bets in the near term. Whale Factor, commenting on the flow trajectory, described the pattern as “heavy sell-side distribution” that has kept price pressure in place for now.

CoinShares’ weekly fund flow report further corroborates the trend, noting that global Ethereum investment products registered about $249 million in outflows for the week ending May 15, the largest weekly number since late January. Taken together, these outflows paint a picture of a market where institutional demand has cooled, at least temporarily, even as spot demand and retail interest remain more tentative.

Where is the support, and what comes next?

From a technical standpoint, investors are watching a cluster of roughly 3.85 million ETH that sits at a cost basis around $2,000–$2,100, according to Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution data. The concentration suggests a sizable cohort of holders could add if prices approach break-even, potentially offering a floor that might limit further downside in the near term.

Analysts remain divided on the vulnerability of ETH to a deeper retreat. Some traders point to a rising wedge pattern on daily charts, which could set the stage for a move toward the next major support around $1,700 if current supports fail to hold. In contrast, others argue that a decisive hold above $2,000 could slow the decline, with a potential bounce narrowly above that level contingent on continued demand and favorable liquidity conditions.

Strategists offered a spectrum of medium-term views. A well-known trader noted that Ethereum breached the $2,100 area after failing to sustain the $2,150 support, suggesting that a defense around the $2,050–$2,070 zone could provide a meaningful bounce if demand returns. Another analyst framed the situation as a test of buyers’ resolve near the lower end of the recent range, warning that a sustained break below the region could open the door to further softening into lower support bands.

Beyond the price action, the narrative around catalysts for a potential ETH rally remains anchored to a mix of macro conditions and on-chain developments. Sharplink’s CEO recently highlighted three catalysts that could help Ethereum reach new highs: the CLARITY Act’s progress in the United States, a broader return of market-wide risk appetite, and the growth of real-world asset tokenization on Ethereum. While these drivers are not immediate guarantees, they represent the structural tailwinds that could shift sentiment back toward Ethereum if liquidity and risk sentiment improve.

For now, traders are inclined to monitor the $2,000 level closely. A firm hold above this threshold could deter further downside and set the stage for a measured recovery, while a break below could expose traders to a test of the next support pockets identified by technical analysts and cost-basis data alike. The balance of on-chain activity, ETF and fund flows, and macro risk appetite will continue to shape the near-term trajectory.

In a related context, market observers have flagged that external factors, such as shifts in oil prices and broader risk sentiment, have historically fed into Ethereum’s price behavior. The interconnectedness of macro trends and on-chain dynamics underscores the importance of watching both liquidity flows and technical levels as the market digests renewed selling pressure and any potential rebound catalysts.

As the week unfolds, traders and investors will be watching three key variables: whether ETH can sustain a bid above $2,000, how ETF and institutional flows trend in the coming days, and whether demand from key market participants returns to supported levels to re-anchor prices above crucial supports.

The immediate question remains whether the current price action marks a temporary pause in a broader downtrend or the start of a longer retracement that could push ETH toward lower basins. Market participants will be closely analyzing liquidity conditions, the pace of outflows or inflows in Ethereum-related vehicles, and the evolving macro backdrop to gauge the durability of any short-term bounce.

Readers should stay tuned to updates on ETF flows, on-chain cost-basis shifts, and technical patterns that could prove decisive for ETH’s near-term path. The coming days may reveal whether the market finds equilibrium near $2,000 or if renewed selling pressure takes the price down to the next set of support levels.

What remains uncertain is how quickly institutional sentiment can reassert itself and whether macro risks ease enough to restore appetite for Ethereum exposure. Market participants will be watching closely to determine if the present pullback is a temporary pause in a longer-term recharge or a precursor to a deeper test of support zones.