Bitcoin slipped more than 1.6% on Friday, with selling pressure strengthening soon after Wall Street opened. The move came as traders grew more cautious toward risk assets amid renewed pressure from US bond yields and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

According to TradingView data cited in market commentary, BTC/USD pushed toward the $64,000 area as bulls struggled to defend earlier gains. The pullback highlights how closely crypto trading has continued to track traditional macro signals—especially rates.

Key takeaways

• BTC weakened quickly after the US market open, with price action approaching the $64,000 level.
• US Treasury yields rose enough to reinforce a more hawkish Fed outlook, which weighed on risk sentiment.
• Market monitoring pointed to concentrated buy-side liquidity on Binance that some traders believe may help stabilize short-term dips.
• CME FedWatch pricing still leaned toward no change at the next meeting, while September hikes remained a key debate.
• Several analysts framed the current pattern as a repeat of past market behavior, including 2022-style rejections near key moving averages.

Yields stay elevated, pushing rate expectations higher

Geopolitical tensions and broader macro headwinds were cited as factors damping appetite for risk. A report from Mosaic Asset Company highlighted that rising Treasury yields were a principal driver behind the sell-off.

Mosaic linked the moves to volatility across the yield curve, describing ongoing “massive moves” even after the latest US consumer inflation reading came in weaker than expected. In its framing, the short end of the curve—particularly the two-year yield—has outsized influence on expectations for where the Fed’s policy rate may go next.

Specifically, Mosaic said the two-year yield sits at 4.31% and remains “well above” the Federal Reserve’s target range, adding downward pressure to risk assets as traders adjusted expectations toward additional hikes.

To gauge how the market was positioning, the report referenced the CME Group FedWatch Tool. That data showed expectations that the Fed would hold rates unchanged at the next scheduled decision, while markets continued to price a 0.25% hike in September—one of two increases expected before the end of 2026.

Mosaic further argued that these rate probabilities were contributing to weakness beyond crypto, noting they were “placing downward pressure on stock indexes.” For traders, the practical takeaway is that BTC’s near-term trading range may remain highly sensitive to continued yield spikes and any incremental repricing of Fed probabilities.

Traders watch $64,000 as structure test intensifies

On the crypto side, short-term technical monitoring focused on how BTC would behave as it approached the $64,000 zone. One recurring theme in trader commentary is that liquidity placed below spot prices can sometimes blunt sell-offs—at least temporarily.

Crypto trader Killa described what they called a “textbook setup,” saying BTC was repeating a pattern they have observed multiple times. In an earlier post from early June, Killa had referred to a “plunge protection team” active on Binance, suggesting that layered bid liquidity could absorb downside if triggered.

That same idea resurfaced in current monitoring: Killa pointed to an order-book view showing multiple levels of liquidity below the prevailing price. The implication, as Killa presented it, is that the holders behind those bids may not necessarily be seeking immediate fills—meaning the market could see stability during the initial leg of a drawdown, even if longer-term trend signals remain uncertain.

Another analytics account, Wealthmanager, emphasized the importance of the $64,000 area as a structural checkpoint. In its warning, the account stated that a break below $64,000 would “invalidate” the low-timeframe market structure. For active traders, this frames the current move not just as volatility, but as a test of whether the market can hold a near-term support regime.

Rejection theory returns: 2022 behavior vs. moving-average tests

Separate from the liquidity-focused view, analyst Rekt Capital reinforced a longer-pattern interpretation. The trader argued that BTC/USD was repeating tendencies seen during its 2022 bear market, pointing to behavior around the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA).

Rekt Capital said BTC has shown “no evidence” contradicting that thesis, summarizing that the asset still appears to follow historical patterns. In the cited analysis, the reference area included a 50-month EMA level near $65,950, where BTC has recently faced rejections.

While this does not automatically predict immediate direction, it does matter for how traders may set expectations: if BTC continues to reject around the same macro-relevant moving average, rallies may struggle to sustain, and any breakdown toward lower support levels could occur faster than bulls anticipate.

What to watch next as macro and crypto narratives compete

The current drawdown sits at the intersection of macro rate expectations and crypto-specific market microstructure. On one hand, bond yields have been acting as a direct sentiment driver, with Mosaic’s assessment pointing to the two-year yield as a key variable shaping expectations for Fed actions. On the other hand, trader observations about Binance order-book liquidity suggest there may be pockets of demand ready to cushion deeper drops.

Going forward, traders should watch whether BTC can reclaim and hold levels around the mid-$60,000s—especially the area referenced by moving-average analysis—or whether the market breaks through the $64,000 structure threshold. In parallel, any renewed shift in CME FedWatch probabilities, alongside further changes in the two-year Treasury yield, could quickly determine whether Friday’s sell-off becomes a broader risk-off move or fades into consolidation.

India’s Internet Freedom Foundation (IFF) has condemned a government order directing GitHub to remove repositories for Jack Dorsey’s decentralized messaging app BitChat, calling the move unconstitutional and warning it threatens free speech and open-source software.

The statement came a day after India’s cybercrime agency ordered GitHub to disable access to three BitChat repositories within three hours, saying the decentralized messaging app could be used to bypass internet shutdowns, evade lawful surveillance and facilitate unlawful activities.

In its statement posted on X on Friday, IFF argued the order exceeded the government’s legal authority because it was issued under Section 79(3)(b) of India’s Information Technology Act instead of the country’s formal website-blocking process, which includes procedural safeguards. The group called on the government to withdraw the notice and publish all takedown orders issued under the provision.

The organization also disputed the government’s justification, noting the order did not identify any unlawful content in the repositories and instead argued the app’s decentralized design, which enables communication over Bluetooth without internet access or centralized servers, was itself grounds for removal.

BitChat is a decentralized messaging app that routes encrypted messages between nearby devices over Bluetooth without relying on internet connectivity or centralized servers.

Since its release in July 2025, the app has gained traction during protests, natural disasters and internet shutdowns, with downloads and adoption surging during periods of unrest and internet outages in countries including Madagascar, Nepal, Uganda, Jamaica and Iran.

Magazine: A quantum roadmap would push Bitcoin much higher: Charles Edwards

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!

In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the most critical events driving global markets.

👉 Key topics covered in this episode:

✔️Fed Interest Rate Decision — 29 July, 09:00 PM GMT+3
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Investors will be watching Kevin Warsh’s comments for fresh clues on inflation, the labour market and the outlook for monetary policy. Could the Fed’s guidance have a greater impact than the rate decision itself?

✔️Bank of England Interest Rate Decision — 30 July, 02:00 PM GMT+3
Markets also expect the Bank of England to keep rates on hold. With inflation easing but oil prices creating fresh uncertainty, markets will focus on the MPC’s voting split and any signals about future interest rate decisions.

✔️US PCE Price Index — 30 July, 03:30 PM GMT+3
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge could reshape expectations for interest rates, despite being released after the Fed meeting. Will inflation continue to cool, or could an upside surprise revive expectations of tighter monetary policy?

✔️Microsoft, Meta, Apple & Amazon Earnings
Big Tech earnings will test whether record AI spending is beginning to translate into stronger business performance. Investors will be looking beyond headline results for signs that AI investments are delivering measurable returns.

The combination of central bank decisions, inflation data and Big Tech earnings could drive significant moves across currencies, equity indices and technology stocks as markets head into August.

In this environment, traders closely monitor incoming data, being flexible and getting ready for short-term volatility.

Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.

💬 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more market insights every week.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Farmers in Parana, Brazil, struggling to get banks to loan them cash, became the first to tokenize livestock and place 10 dairy milk cows’ tokens for trade on the country’s B3 national stock exchange. They generated nearly $20,000 in credit backed by their cattle, signaling the potential of tokenizing RWAs as a financing tool.

The dairy cow tokenization in Brazil is a world first and serves as a test in a real-world scenario in which farmers are facing increasingly stringent lending limits imposed by local banks on small agricultural businesses.

“We take the cow, which is a real and tangible asset, and transform it into a digital asset backed by a unique code monitored in real time,” Thiago Martins of Cowmed, a Brazilian Agtec company, told CNNBrasil recently.

Martins and his company did not immediately respond to a CoinDesk request for comment.

“This digitization allows for formal registration with B3 as a movable asset,” Martins added. “The process is simple and gives the producer an advantageous opportunity to finance themselves, opening a new alternative for collateral at a time of strong credit restrictions in agribusiness.”

Institutional crypto trading platform LMAX Group is working with Morgan Stanley (MS) and investment bank KBW, part of Stifel (SF), to evaluate strategic options, according to three people familiar with the matter.

The company is exploring a sale or public listing that could value the business at up to $5 billion, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private.

While all options remain on the table, including a sale, SPAC merger and IPOs in the U.S. or Europe, a Nasdaq listing is currently the preferred route, one of the people said.

The company is in no rush to go public as crypto markets remain weak, with its core foreign-exchange business providing insulation from the downturn, another person said.

A company spokesperson said LMAX declines to comment on speculation. Morgan Stanley declined to comment. Stifel didn’t respond to a request for comment by publication time.

The London-based firm operates institutional trading venues for foreign exchange and digital assets, providing execution, liquidity and market infrastructure to banks, brokers, hedge funds and asset managers. Regulated by the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority, it is known for its agency execution model, transparent order books and low-latency trading infrastructure.

Connecting crypto to TradFi

Deal activity across the crypto sector has accelerated this year as exchanges, fintech companies and market infrastructure firms seek to strengthen their digital asset offerings and capture rising institutional demand.

Bitcoin’s quantum-computing threat is once again taking center stage among market watchers, with Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards arguing that developers could quickly relieve a major uncertainty if they publicly set out a practical roadmap for quantum-resistant upgrades.

In an interview with Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets, Edwards said a clear timeline from the Bitcoin Core team—detailing rough steps and target milestones within “two or three months” and follow-through over the subsequent years—would likely be treated by markets as meaningful de-risking rather than distant theory.

Key takeaways

• Charles Edwards says Bitcoin’s response would likely be swift if developers publish a concrete quantum-hardening roadmap soon.
• He argues that the quantum risk is currently suppressing prices and is “more than priced in,” based on his own valuation framework.
• Edwards estimates the threat’s impact as part of a larger discount, while stressing that today’s pricing may change if timelines shift.
• He points to expert industry timelines for “Q Day” (the point quantum systems could reverse-engineer private keys) as underpinning his assumptions.

Why quantum risk remains a market-moving uncertainty

Edwards’ core concern is that sufficiently powerful quantum computers could eventually undermine the cryptographic assumptions that secure the Bitcoin network, potentially affecting how wallets protect private keys.

Within the broader Bitcoin community, the question of whether and how to modify Bitcoin to address quantum threats has become contentious. Some argue that major protocol changes could conflict with Bitcoin’s long-standing ethos of minimal, conservative alterations. Others believe quantum computers may be too far away to justify urgent changes—and warn that rushed “cures” could introduce new risks.

Edwards says the uncertainty has already affected investor sentiment. He also noted that large institutional participants have acknowledged long-term quantum risk. According to remarks referenced in the interview, BlackRock has pointed to quantum computing as a potential risk factor in materials for spot Bitcoin ETF investors.

A roadmap, not just debate, could change how markets price the threat

Edwards’ most direct claim is about timing and market psychology: he believes a credible and transparent development plan would be interpreted as a fast-moving improvement in Bitcoin’s risk profile.

He specifically described what he would consider “amazing news” for markets: if the Bitcoin Core team were to outline a roadmap within a couple of months, including rough steps and a multi-year delivery plan, then investors could re-rate the probability of worst-case scenarios.

Edwards added that such clarity could “discount a lot of the risk pretty much overnight,” and he even floated a price-response expectation of “double digits” in that scenario. For him, the quantum question is “on the back burner” and, to date, the Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) addressing the issue are “not really” a genuine solution.

That framing matters because it positions the quantum debate not only as a technical challenge, but as a communications and execution problem. In Edwards’ view, markets have been discounting risk without a concrete mitigation pathway visible to the public—so the moment that pathway becomes legible, repricing could follow.

How Edwards’ valuation links quantum timelines to “Q Day”

Edwards also offered a quantitative perspective on how he sees Bitcoin priced relative to his notion of “fair value.” He estimated that Bitcoin is currently around 40% below fair value when measured against energy value, and he attributed roughly a 30% discount specifically to quantum risk. On that basis, he argued the risk is “more than priced in.”

He stressed that his conclusion is conditional on information available today, rather than unknown future developments. If quantum timelines accelerate or new information shifts expectations about the arrival of “Q Day,” the discount could widen; if mitigation becomes clearer, it could narrow.

In the interview, Edwards said his model is based on timelines discussed by leading quantum computing companies and researchers for when quantum systems could reach the point where attackers might reverse-engineer private keys from public keys. He suggested that this window sits in the “four to five year range, give or take, a few years.”

He further argued that even after the threat window arrives, Bitcoin would still need time to design and implement an effective solution. Edwards pointed to BIP-360 author Ethan Heilman’s view that the development and rollout of a fix could take years.

“If we’re gonna get into maths, it’s pretty simple; it is just an aggregation of those expert opinions. So it’s based on that, and based on the fact that there’s currently no solution for Bitcoin.”

Edwards said the key asymmetry is that while investors have already priced in the quantum risk “today,” the situation could still deteriorate—or improve—depending on whether there is a credible mitigation plan and how external quantum roadmaps evolve.

He also described the resulting distribution of outcomes as “skewed more probabilistically to the upside” from the current level, precisely because a mitigation roadmap would reduce uncertainty that is currently weighing on sentiment.

What other chains’ progress means for Bitcoin

The interview also tied Bitcoin’s preparation to broader sector momentum. Edwards cited that Ethereum is scheduled to complete its post-quantum overhaul by 2029, which he said could bring renewed attention to whether Bitcoin has done enough by then.

For investors, the practical takeaway is not that Bitcoin must copy another network’s approach, but that other ecosystems’ timelines can shift market expectations. When one major platform moves toward quantum-resistance on a defined schedule, it can raise the question of whether Bitcoin is lagging—or simply taking a different engineering path.

As of the time Edwards discussed these claims in the interview, Bitcoin was trading around $65,270, and he compared that to its October all-time highs of about $126,100—underscoring how much of the asset’s prior peak remains unrecovered.

Going forward, the market will likely watch two things closely: whether Bitcoin Core and related development groups publish a concrete, milestone-based plan for quantum-hardening, and whether external quantum roadmaps shift expectations about when “Q Day” could realistically arrive. Until then, Edwards’ argument suggests Bitcoin may continue to carry a quantifiable discount tied to uncertainty—even as the debate over how to preserve Bitcoin’s ethos continues.

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Poised to become the world’s most prominent “real humans’ network”, the project previously known as Worldcoin aims to establish an identity layer to distinguish unique individuals from automated bots. The protocol relies on custom hardware, known as an Orb, to issue credentials without compromising user privacy.

“World’s technology and proof of human and variations are among the most important building blocks to secure and verify interactions in an increasingly digital driven world,” said Tom Lee, an Eightco Holdings board member who also serves as the chairman of Bitmine, in a statement.

World said the investment comes as it shifts from building the network to scaling the utility.

To date, more than 39 million people have joined the World Network, with more than 18 million humans verified by an Orb, World said in the funding announcement press release. The network has utilized more than 475 million World ID proofs since its launch, scaling its capacity alongside the rollout of its updated, enterprise-ready infrastructure, it added.

World, the Sam Altman-backed digital identity project, unveiled in April what it called its most significant upgrade yet to World ID, positioning the system as “full-stack proof of human” infrastructure aimed at consumers, enterprises and AI agents.