In less than six weeks, Amazon has gained almost as much market capitalization as SpaceX has lost. Since June 26, both companies have swapped precisely $560 billion in market cap.

Believe it or not, as recently as June 16, both companies had the same valuation, each being a $2.65 trillion company.

Since then, however, their valuations have trended in opposite directions.

Shares of Amazon climbed above $284 today, carrying the online retailer’s market value past $3 trillion for the first time. Only four publicly traded companies had ever reached that mark before.

Elon Musk’s rocket, internet, and AI conglomerate SpaceX had a great start after its IPO, running above $2.9 trillion within three days and briefly eclipsing the value of Amazon for one glorious week.

Stock in SpaceX then crashed, crashed, and crashed some more. Over the past month, the stock has lost 32% of its value.

Today, Amazon’s $3.06 trillion market cap is more than twice as valuable as SpaceX’s $1.44 trillion.

A good earnings report from Amazon

Last week, Amazon reported second quarter net sales of $200 billion and operating income up an impressive 43%, largely due to tariff refund checks and an increase in its Anthropic investment.

Its Amazon Web Services division grew at its fastest rate in 18 quarters.

The company posted adjusted earnings of $1.97 per share that beat Wall Street’s $1.82 estimate, on impressive revenue of $200 billion versus an expected $196 billion.

Accelerating cloud-computing growth eased investors’ concerns about Amazon’s heavy AI spending, with analysts framing its AI expenditures as bets that were starting to pay off.

The stock surged 15% the day after the report and was up about 5% again on Monday, marking another record high.

CEO Andy Jassy said, “There’s a lot to be excited about, and we have much more coming for customers in the second half of the year and beyond.”

Some of that excitement came from outside the business. Roughly $53 billion of the quarter’s $62.6 billion net income arrived as non-operating gains, largely on Amazon’s stake in Anthropic. 

Amazon even nudged capital spending guidance toward $220 billion, and investors were happy to oblige — bidding up its stock 22% over the past week despite its plans to spend more cash on AI.

Wall Street raised its Amazon price targets. Analysts at JPMorgan raised their price target to $365 from $330, Wells Fargo reiterated its overweight recommendation and $328 price target, and TD Cowen said buy up to $350.

Kenya has anchored more than 15 million academic records to the Avalanche C-Chain as it replaces slow, paper-based certificate checks with a national electronic verification system.

Kenya moves academic verification onto Avalanche

The Kenya National Examinations Council launched the system through a local technology provider, according to an Ava Labs announcement published on Aug. 3.

The initial rollout covers more than 15 million historical examination records dating back to 1989. It also includes certificates for nearly 1 million candidates who took the Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education examination in 2025.

Those certificates are now issued exclusively through KNEC’s electronic certificate platform. Students can access and download their credentials, while employers, universities and other institutions can verify them online.

“Candidates no longer have to rely solely on physical certificates. Instead, they can securely access, download and verify their KCSE certificates online, providing a faster, more reliable and more convenient way of managing academic credentials in the digital age,” KNEC CEO David Njengere said.

KNEC plans to expand the system to about 35 million records. Its expected scope includes primary and secondary qualifications, advanced diplomas and government teacher-training certifications.

Avalanche system targets certificate fraud

Academic verification in Kenya previously depended on manual requests, physical files and centralized databases. Ava Labs said individual checks could take a month, while large verification requests from recruiters could take up to six months.

The new platform is designed to reduce that process to seconds. Anchoring certification data on Avalanche creates a tamper-resistant reference that authorized users can check against records presented by candidates.

KNEC also aims to reduce certificate forgery and the use of fraudulent verification websites. However, the announcement did not provide detailed information about which data fields are stored directly on-chain, how personal information is protected, or the cost of operating the platform.

The rollout extends Avalanche’s use in government record systems. In the United States, California’s Department of Motor Vehicles has digitized 42 million vehicle titles using Avalanche, while Bergen County, New Jersey, is using the network in a project covering 370,000 property deeds valued at about $240 billion, according to Ava Labs.

AVAX sees no clear boost from Kenya rollout

The announcement did not produce a clear breakout in AVAX, Avalanche’s native token. crypto.news data showed the token trading near $6.54, with a market capitalization of roughly $2.82 billion.

Its 24-hour trading volume stood near $170 million, down about 35% from the previous day. That suggests the Kenya announcement had not yet generated a sustained increase in market activity.

KNEC’s platform nevertheless adds a nationwide public-sector use case to the Avalanche C-Chain. Its long-term effect will depend on whether the system reaches the planned 35 million records and continues processing new certifications at scale.

Kenya expands blockchain use amid cyber risks

The academic project arrives as Kenya develops broader oversight of digital assets. As crypto.news previously reported, the Capital Markets Authority moved in July to procure surveillance software capable of monitoring Bitcoin, Ethereum and more than 20 other blockchain networks.

The regulator wants the system to trace funds, flag suspicious wallets and identify offshore crypto platforms serving Kenyan users without authorization.

Kenya’s digital expansion also faces cybersecurity risks. Hackers temporarily defaced President William Ruto’s official website on July 18 and demanded five Bitcoin as ransom. Authorities opened an investigation, but the incident was separate from KNEC’s Avalanche deployment.

The next test will be whether KNEC can expand the certification platform while protecting student data, maintaining access and preventing the digital system from creating new points of failure.

Once a goldmine for carry traders, bitcoin futures have flipped, consistently underperforming plain‑vanilla U.S. Treasuries every month since February.

Carry trades consistently yielded 20% or more across regulated and unregulated crypto exchanges during the 2021 bull market. The strategy involved shorting bitcoin BTC$63,805.30 futures while simultaneously buying a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). Now they return just 3% compared with an average 3.8% yield on two-year Treasuries.

Traders have long used futures, agreements to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a specific date, to set up trades that profited from the gap between futures and spot prices, known as basis. That basis, in annualized terms, has been lower than the two‑year Treasury note continuously for more than five months, according to data source Glassnode.

“Three-month futures basis has paid less than a two-year Treasury since February. Only one other stretch on record has run this long: August 2022 into January 2023. It ended at the cycle low,” Glassnode said in a post on Telegram.

The three-month basis has been yielding less than the two-year Treasury note for 157 days, according to Glassnode’s Sunday chart.

Bitcoin analysts are pointing to August as a potential inflection point, hinging on whether the asset can secure a key monthly close that would confirm a technical bear-market bottom signal. Separately, Grayscale research suggests the bottom could have occurred earlier than the typical four-year cycle implies, pushing the focus to macro conditions rather than the calendar.

According to a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph by 10x Research founder Markus Thielen, Bitcoin’s July performance did not meet the threshold needed to validate a technical bottom. However, the firm argues that a monthly close near $63,000 in August could flip several of its cycle indicators to a bullish configuration.

Key takeaways

• 10x Research says a July monthly close failed to confirm its technical bottom signal, but an August monthly close near $63,000 could trigger a reversal indication.
• 10x Research continues to favor long positions, but would turn more neutral if Bitcoin breaks key support levels and moving averages.
• Grayscale’s Zach Pandl told investors in a July 22 report that Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the four-year cycle would suggest, potentially placing the cycle low in September or October.
• Macro variables—especially Fed policy and changes in the 10-year Treasury yield—remain central to timing both analysts’ outlooks.
• Other market participants highlight supply-side stress indicators, including the share of Bitcoin held at a loss.

What needs to happen for a 10x Research bottom signal

10x Research’s technical framework centers on cycle indicators tied to Bitcoin’s monthly price behavior. Thielen said in the Monday report that Bitcoin closed July below the level required to confirm the firm’s bear-market bottom setup.

When the analysis was prepared, Bitcoin was trading at $63,140. That matters because 10x Research argues the distance from the July closing level to the next confirmation threshold may be small. In its view, if Bitcoin prints an August monthly close around $63,000, the change could be sufficient to turn multiple cycle indicators bullish.

Importantly, 10x Research is not treating the signal as unconditional. The firm said it continued to favor long positioning, but would shift to a neutral stance if Bitcoin breaks key support levels and moving averages—an acknowledgement that technical confirmation can fail if price action deteriorates before the month ends.

Macro risks remain the timing driver

While the chart-based trigger is specific, 10x Research frames macro policy as the overriding variable. Its base case assumes the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady. But the firm also flagged two key uncertainties: further increases in the 10-year Treasury yield could raise the probability of a September rate hike, and the Iran conflict adds geopolitical risk that could disrupt risk assets more broadly.

That emphasis on the macro backdrop is also echoed by Grayscale. In a July 22 report, Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl argued that Bitcoin’s timing might not match the traditional four-year cycle pattern, but that macroeconomic conditions—including Fed policy—still represent the primary mechanism shaping Bitcoin’s price.

Grayscale: a bottom may have come early—cycle low could be later

Grayscale’s view diverges from a strict reliance on the four-year cycle. Pandl told investors that Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the traditional four-year cycle would suggest. Under that interpretation, the cycle low would still fall in September or October, even if the earliest “bottoming” signals appeared sooner.

For traders and portfolio managers, the practical difference is not just the date—it is what to monitor. If bottoming can occur in phases, then early relief rallies or stabilization periods may not immediately complete the cycle, and investors may need to watch macro catalysts that can either sustain or reverse the improvement.

Supply-side pressure and the loss-held supply signal

In addition to technical and macro narratives, market structure indicators are contributing to the debate about how close Bitcoin may be to a durable bottom.

Earlier in July, crypto brokerage K33 pointed to a supply-side stress measure: more than half of Bitcoin’s supply was held at a loss. K33 described this as another sign that the market could be approaching a bottom, because prior periods with similar loss concentration were followed by strong subsequent returns.

K33 also reported that Bitcoin bottomed within 13 to 31 days of when that threshold was reached in 2017, 2018, and 2022. The key takeaway for investors is that the timeline is not only about price resistance or moving averages—distribution and holder pain can compress into a short window that may precede a broader trend reversal.

Another data point referenced in the broader discussion is long-term holder behavior. In a June interview, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten told Cointelegraph that long-term holders’ record balance of 14.7 million BTC was an indication Bitcoin was nearing a bottom. The idea aligns with a broader pattern often seen during bear markets: if long-term holders absorb supply while not distributing into weakness, downside pressure may eventually fade.

What to watch as the month turns

For now, the near-term question is straightforward: can Bitcoin produce an August monthly close around $63,000 in a way that validates 10x Research’s cycle indicators, while macro conditions do not undermine the setup. Investors should also monitor how supply-side stress measures evolve and whether the market behavior stays consistent with the historical windows flagged by K33—because that combination of technical confirmation and shifting holder dynamics is what will determine whether “bottoming” turns into a sustained trend.

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They never walk past a container without glancing inside

Bitcoin BTC$62,561.89 and ether (ETH) are under pressure as the multimillion-dollar hack of the hardware wallet Coldcard enters a fifth day, raising questions over the safety of direct custody as a holding strategy.

The incident has rocked sentiment on crypto social media, with numerous small holders complaining of losing long-term holdings and reassessing their faith in crypto.

“Worse for sentiment, it [the hack] has spooked holders into sending coins back to exchanges, the opposite of the self-custody trend crypto is built on,” analysts at Marex said. “When the thing wobbling is cold storage itself, a cheaper barrel does not fix it.”

Given the gravity of the situation and the $114 million of bitcoin stolen, the price reaction of the largest cryptocurrency appears relatively restrained. BTC was recently 1.5% lower over 24 hours to $62,595, a level it has visited several times in recent weeks, with ether down nearly 2% to $1,842. The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index has dropped 2.5%.