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Solana rips upwards 6% as chain is trading like $100 while SOL is stuck under $95

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Solana is handling 100M+ daily transactions and $650B in monthly stablecoin volume while SOL trades below $95, leaving traders to decide if a $100+ rerating is overdue.

Summary

  • Solana is processing over 100 million transactions a day and $650 billion in monthly stablecoin volume, outpacing every other major chain.
  • Spot SOL ETFs have attracted around $1 billion–$1.5 billion in net inflows despite SOL trading roughly 57% below post‑ETF highs.
  • Analysts see a potential breakout if SOL can clear resistance near $92–$100, with ETF flows and derivatives positioning acting as key catalysts.

Solana (SOL) is trading around the low‑$90s after a series of 5–7% daily moves, even as its underlying network posts activity figures normally associated with far richer valuations. Dune Analytics data shared by Solana Payments shows the blockchain processing roughly 105.3 million transactions per day as of February 19, 2026, “more than all other major blockchains combined.” In February alone, Solana handled about 3.4 billion transactions excluding votes, one of its most active months on record. At the same time, research cited by Grayscale shows the network processed about $650 billion in stablecoin transfers in February, more than doubling its previous record and overtaking both Ethereum and Tron in monthly stablecoin volume.

Solana rips upwards 6% as chain is trading like $100 while SOL is stuck under $95 - 1

According to a price outlook from crypto.news, SOL spent early March consolidating near $88–$89 with a market cap around $50 billion, “a blue‑chip alt that has forgotten how to trend” after a brutal February drawdown. On March 4, Solana emerged as the standout top‑10 performer with a 6% jump to $91.45 and a market cap near $52 billion, as 24‑hour trading volume surged to $7.5 billion and the volume‑to‑market‑cap ratio climbed to 14.4% from a 30‑day average of 11.2%. Another 5.12% daily advance pushed SOL to about $91.46 as ETF inflows rose and whale wallets staked roughly 200,000 SOL worth over $17 million, reinforcing support in the $84–$86 band.

Behind the price, regulated products are quietly building a structural bid. U.S. spot Solana ETFs are near the $1 billion net‑inflow mark and have attracted about $1.5 billion since launch, even as SOL’s price has fallen roughly 57% from its July 2025 levels, according to Bloomberg data cited by multiple analysts. “Solana ETFs recorded $16.8 million in net inflows on Monday, lifting cumulative inflows to $1.09 billion,” one recent report noted, with the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF alone drawing over $638 million. Crypto.news has reported that around 30 institutions now hold about $540 million in SOL ETF exposure, highlighting how much of this demand is institutional rather than purely retail.

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Those flows are increasingly shaping the tape: Bitwise analysis suggests spot ETF flows now account for around 25% of SOL’s price variance, while basis trades remain subdued. Recent derivative market data shows open interest hovering near $5.01 billion, funding rates turning positive and long‑to‑short ratios hitting monthly highs as SOL traded above $89 after a roughly 10% weekly gain. Technical forecasters at crypto.news say a sustained move into the $95–$105 range is possible if buying pressure persists, with upside confirmation coming on a clear break above $100.

The core question for traders is whether SOL’s price can catch up to a chain that already looks like a high‑throughput payments and stablecoin backbone. Network statistics indicate Solana is handling around 150 million transactions per day and supporting roughly $2 trillion in quarterly stablecoin transfers, placing it “at the center of the stablecoin economy” according to recent market research. Grayscale and Standard Chartered analysts argue that the activity shift away from memecoins toward payments and tokenized finance justifies structurally higher valuations, with one 2026 base case targeting $250 per SOL and a bull case extending to $320 if ETF flows and technical upgrades land cleanly.

Yet technical risk remains. Crypto.news analysis notes that SOL still trades in a broad $80–$100 “trap,” with $80 acting as crucial support and $96–$116 marked out as the zone that would “reopen structural recovery” if reclaimed. Bears warn that a confirmed break below $80 could trigger a slide toward $64 or even the $59 head‑and‑shoulders target flagged on multi‑day charts. For now, the market is paying blue‑chip prices for a chain that is already settling hundreds of billions a month in stablecoins—but not yet the full premium implied by its usage. Whether that gap closes via a rerating higher or a normalization of activity will define Solana’s next leg.

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Crypto World

Kalshi, Polymarket tighten user bans to deter insider trading

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Crypto Breaking News

Two leading prediction-market platforms have rolled out tighter guardrails on Monday to curb insider trading and suspected market manipulation in event-based contracts, as lawmakers in Washington step up scrutiny of a sector that blends finance, law and politics.

Kalshi and Polymarket argued that their updates are designed to prevent the exploitation of confidential information and to reduce the risk that markets skew the outcomes of real-world events. The moves come amid a broader policy push in the United States to regulate or restrict prediction markets that resemble gambling or sports betting.

Key takeaways

  • Kalshi and Polymarket introduced new guardrails to combat insider trading and manipulation in event contracts.
  • Kalshi will preemptively bar political candidates from trading on their campaigns and exclude individuals connected to college and professional sports from relevant markets.
  • Polymarket expanded prohibitions to forbid trades based on stolen confidential information or those who can influence market outcomes.
  • A bipartisan bill, the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, would bar CFTC-registered platforms from listing event contracts that resemble sports bets or casino-style games.
  • The policy debate highlights tensions over jurisdiction, licensing and the boundaries between financial markets and entertainment-oriented betting.

Guardrails tighten as Congresseye rules intensify

Kalshi said it would preemptively ban political candidates from trading on their own campaigns, along with individuals known to be involved in college and professional sports—such as athletes, staff, and referees. The exchange described the move as part of a long-running effort to align with evolving regulatory guidance and proposed legislation addressing insider trading and market manipulation in prediction markets.

In a separate but related move, Polymarket unveiled broader prohibitions intended to close loopholes that could enable insiders to benefit from confidential information or influence the outcome of a contract. The company said its updated rules aim to make the market more resistant to manipulation and to protect the integrity of events traded on its platform.

The changes come on the heels of intense public debate about whether some well-timed bets on political or geopolitical events reflect legitimate market activity or exploit privileged information. In recent coverage, observers noted bets placed around high-profile events such as U.S. and Israeli actions in Iran and a U.S.-led operation related to Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, with some traders appearing to use multiple accounts to mask activity. The Guardian reported that the Iran-strike bets were made by users who could be perceived as having inside information, underscoring the ongoing concerns about insider knowledge shaping market outcomes.

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Kalshi described its policy evolution as a proactive response to the regulatory environment and to proposed congressional action. The company, which is a member of the Coalition for Prediction Markets, argued that these guardrails are part of preparing for potential legal guidance and legislative developments that address insider trading and market manipulation in prediction markets.

Policy spotlight: bipartisan efforts and legal tensions

On Monday, Democratic Senator Adam Schiff and Republican Senator John Curtis introduced a bipartisan bill, the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, that would bar Commodity Futures Trading Commission-registered entities from listing event contracts that resemble sports betting or casino-style games. In their view, sports prediction contracts are effectively sports bets—an assertion Schiff has repeated to emphasize the public-law implications of these instruments when they resemble gambling more than information-driven markets.

The proposed legislation would withdraw a key allowance for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket by limiting what contracts they may offer in the United States. Schiff’s office framed the issue as one of regulatory clarity and consumer protection, while Curtis stressed maintaining state authority over broader gaming and betting activities.

Kalshi’s chief executive, Tarek Mansour, reacted to the bill by framing the move within a broader “casino lobby” effort. He argued that the legislation is not about protecting consumers but about preserving entrenched monopolies, a line he shared publicly on social media. His comments underscore how industry actors view the political dynamic surrounding prediction markets and their place in the U.S. financial-regulatory landscape.

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Legal tension has already surrounded prediction-market operators in several states, which have asserted that sports-event contracts constitute gambling that requires a state license. Platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket andCoinbase have contended that their offerings are not illegal betting and, regardless, fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission rather than state authorities.

The policy debate is not theoretical for traders and developers who rely on prediction markets for hedging and information discovery. As reported by Cointelegraph, the U.S. Senate has been weighing bills aimed at curtailing or redefining the reach of these markets, alongside state-level actions that challenge the legality of specific contracts. The ongoing legal and regulatory discourse creates an environment of uncertainty, even as platforms push for clearer rules that would allow compliant operation in the United States.

For context, Cointelegraph’s reporting has highlighted instances where traders leveraged event-driven markets to capitalize on geopolitical developments, reinforcing concerns about information asymmetry and the potential for manipulation. The new guardrails by Kalshi and Polymarket are thus part of a broader effort to reconcile the commercial appeal of prediction markets with legitimate safeguards against abuse.

What to watch next in the evolving landscape

As lawmakers advance their proposals and courts consider disputes over jurisdiction and licensing, the trajectory of prediction markets in the United States remains uncertain. If the proposed act passes, CFTC-approved platforms could face tighter restrictions or even a narrowed set of permissible contracts, potentially dampening growth but improving trust and regulatory compliance.

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For users, traders and builders, the key questions are how the guardrails translate into practical trading limits, whether state or federal rules will ultimately prevail, and how enforcement will unfold in a landscape that often intersects with political sentiment and sports governance.

The next chapter will likely hinge on legislative momentum in Congress and any legal clarifications from federal or state authorities. Watch for updates on whether the bipartisan bill gains traction, how the industry responds with further rule adjustments, and whether there are new developments in the ongoing legal actions against these platforms. The balance between innovation and integrity in prediction markets remains delicate, and investors should monitor both regulatory signals and platform-level safeguards as the market evolves.

Sources: Kalshi newsroom announcements on guardrails; Polymarket rule updates; U.S. Senate press releases announcing the proposed act; coverage of insider-trading concerns around event contracts; The Guardian reporting on Iran-strike bets; ongoing state-level legal actions against prediction-market operators.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto World

Balancer Labs Shuts Down, Protocol to Continue

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Balancer Labs Shuts Down, Protocol to Continue

Balancer Labs, the team behind the decentralized finance protocol Balancer, is shutting down after mounting financial pressure and a $116 million hack in November, with executives proposing continuation of the protocol under a leaner, more cost-effective structure.

“After careful consideration, I have decided to wind down Balancer Labs. This is not a decision I take lightly,” one of Balancer Protocol’s founders, Fernando Martinelli, said on Monday, adding that Balancer Labs has become a “liability rather than an asset to the protocol,” as it has been operating without revenue.

Balancer Labs CEO Marcus Hardt added that it was spending too much to attract liquidity relative to the revenue the protocol is making, a strategy that came at the cost of diluting Balancer (BAL) token holders.

Source: Marcus Hardt

Balancer was one of the more notable DeFi protocols during the 2020–2021 bull market, reaching a peak of $3.3 billion in total value locked (TVL) in November 2021.

However, that figure fell to $800 million by October 2025, with the hack leading to another $500 million TVL drop over the next two weeks. Balancer’s TVL has since fallen to $158 million, showing how challenging it is for DeFi protocols to recover from large-scale hacks.

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Martinelli said the November exploit “created real and ongoing legal exposure” and that maintaining a corporate entity that carries the liability of past security incidents wasn’t sustainable.

Balancer Labs executives outline restructuring plan

Moving forward, Hardt and Martinelli are pushing for Balancer’s future to be managed by the Balancer Foundation and the protocol’s decentralized autonomous organization.

Martinelli advocated for Balancer to adopt a more “lean continuation path,” which involves cutting BAL emissions to zero, restructuring fees to enable Balancer’s DAO to capture more revenue, reducing the team as much as possible and targeting lower operating costs.