Crypto World
South Korea Records $367M in Stablecoin Outflows
South Korea saw 560.3 billion won ($367 million) in stablecoin outflows to overseas exchanges in June, extending the country’s streak of monthly net stablecoin outflows to 18 consecutive months.
The figure comes from Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) data obtained by Yonhap News Agency through People Power Party lawmaker Lee Jong-wook. South Korea’s five major crypto exchanges — Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit and Gopax — transferred 2.7 trillion won ($1.81 billion) in stablecoins offshore in June and received 2.2 trillion won ($1.44 billion) from foreign platforms.
Market participants cited by Yonhap attributed the transfers to demand for products restricted or unavailable on domestic exchanges, such as overseas derivatives, tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), decentralized finance and staking products.
Lee has called on the government to reassess how it protects investors and supervises cross-border crypto activity as stablecoin outflows continue. “The government must comprehensively examine its investor protection and supervisory frameworks again and move swiftly to improve regulations,” he said, according to The Korea Times.
South Korea weighs tighter rules for offshore activity
The outflows come as South Korea works to complete a broader legal framework for digital assets. On Thursday, a policy report recommended that authorities introduce an interim licensing guidance and phase in stablecoin regulations before the Digital Asset Basic Act is finalized.
The proposed act would create the country’s first comprehensive digital asset framework, including rules for stablecoin issuance, disclosures and market activity. However, lawmakers have yet to reconcile multiple proposals, with disagreements over which institutions should be allowed to issue won-pegged stablecoins contributing to delays.
Related: South Korea plans stablecoin rules as opposition pushes crypto tax repeal
South Korean regulators have also sought to expand reporting requirements for crypto transfers. On June 22, South Korea’s Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) proposed extending Travel Rule reporting requirements to transactions below 1 million won (about $650).
The FIU also called for stronger action against unregistered overseas exchanges serving South Koreans. The agency said uneven licensing and supervision across jurisdictions created opportunities for regulatory arbitrage, a concern underscored by the country’s continued stablecoin outflows.
Magazine: The real reason DeFi projects that survived 2022 crash are shutting down now
Once a goldmine for carry traders, bitcoin futures have flipped, consistently underperforming plain‑vanilla U.S. Treasuries every month since February.
Carry trades consistently yielded 20% or more across regulated and unregulated crypto exchanges during the 2021 bull market. The strategy involved shorting bitcoin futures while simultaneously buying a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). Now they return just 3% compared with an average 3.8% yield on two-year Treasuries.
Traders have long used futures, agreements to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a specific date, to set up trades that profited from the gap between futures and spot prices, known as basis. That basis, in annualized terms, has been lower than the two‑year Treasury note continuously for more than five months, according to data source Glassnode.
“Three-month futures basis has paid less than a two-year Treasury since February. Only one other stretch on record has run this long: August 2022 into January 2023. It ended at the cycle low,” Glassnode said in a post on Telegram.
The three-month basis has been yielding less than the two-year Treasury note for 157 days, according to Glassnode’s Sunday chart.
Bitcoin analysts are pointing to August as a potential inflection point, hinging on whether the asset can secure a key monthly close that would confirm a technical bear-market bottom signal. Separately, Grayscale research suggests the bottom could have occurred earlier than the typical four-year cycle implies, pushing the focus to macro conditions rather than the calendar.
According to a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph by 10x Research founder Markus Thielen, Bitcoin’s July performance did not meet the threshold needed to validate a technical bottom. However, the firm argues that a monthly close near $63,000 in August could flip several of its cycle indicators to a bullish configuration.
Key takeaways
- 10x Research says a July monthly close failed to confirm its technical bottom signal, but an August monthly close near $63,000 could trigger a reversal indication.
- 10x Research continues to favor long positions, but would turn more neutral if Bitcoin breaks key support levels and moving averages.
- Grayscale’s Zach Pandl told investors in a July 22 report that Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the four-year cycle would suggest, potentially placing the cycle low in September or October.
- Macro variables—especially Fed policy and changes in the 10-year Treasury yield—remain central to timing both analysts’ outlooks.
- Other market participants highlight supply-side stress indicators, including the share of Bitcoin held at a loss.
What needs to happen for a 10x Research bottom signal
10x Research’s technical framework centers on cycle indicators tied to Bitcoin’s monthly price behavior. Thielen said in the Monday report that Bitcoin closed July below the level required to confirm the firm’s bear-market bottom setup.
When the analysis was prepared, Bitcoin was trading at $63,140. That matters because 10x Research argues the distance from the July closing level to the next confirmation threshold may be small. In its view, if Bitcoin prints an August monthly close around $63,000, the change could be sufficient to turn multiple cycle indicators bullish.
Importantly, 10x Research is not treating the signal as unconditional. The firm said it continued to favor long positioning, but would shift to a neutral stance if Bitcoin breaks key support levels and moving averages—an acknowledgement that technical confirmation can fail if price action deteriorates before the month ends.
Macro risks remain the timing driver
While the chart-based trigger is specific, 10x Research frames macro policy as the overriding variable. Its base case assumes the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady. But the firm also flagged two key uncertainties: further increases in the 10-year Treasury yield could raise the probability of a September rate hike, and the Iran conflict adds geopolitical risk that could disrupt risk assets more broadly.
That emphasis on the macro backdrop is also echoed by Grayscale. In a July 22 report, Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl argued that Bitcoin’s timing might not match the traditional four-year cycle pattern, but that macroeconomic conditions—including Fed policy—still represent the primary mechanism shaping Bitcoin’s price.
Grayscale: a bottom may have come early—cycle low could be later
Grayscale’s view diverges from a strict reliance on the four-year cycle. Pandl told investors that Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the traditional four-year cycle would suggest. Under that interpretation, the cycle low would still fall in September or October, even if the earliest “bottoming” signals appeared sooner.
For traders and portfolio managers, the practical difference is not just the date—it is what to monitor. If bottoming can occur in phases, then early relief rallies or stabilization periods may not immediately complete the cycle, and investors may need to watch macro catalysts that can either sustain or reverse the improvement.
Supply-side pressure and the loss-held supply signal
In addition to technical and macro narratives, market structure indicators are contributing to the debate about how close Bitcoin may be to a durable bottom.
Earlier in July, crypto brokerage K33 pointed to a supply-side stress measure: more than half of Bitcoin’s supply was held at a loss. K33 described this as another sign that the market could be approaching a bottom, because prior periods with similar loss concentration were followed by strong subsequent returns.
K33 also reported that Bitcoin bottomed within 13 to 31 days of when that threshold was reached in 2017, 2018, and 2022. The key takeaway for investors is that the timeline is not only about price resistance or moving averages—distribution and holder pain can compress into a short window that may precede a broader trend reversal.
Another data point referenced in the broader discussion is long-term holder behavior. In a June interview, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten told Cointelegraph that long-term holders’ record balance of 14.7 million BTC was an indication Bitcoin was nearing a bottom. The idea aligns with a broader pattern often seen during bear markets: if long-term holders absorb supply while not distributing into weakness, downside pressure may eventually fade.
What to watch as the month turns
For now, the near-term question is straightforward: can Bitcoin produce an August monthly close around $63,000 in a way that validates 10x Research’s cycle indicators, while macro conditions do not undermine the setup. Investors should also monitor how supply-side stress measures evolve and whether the market behavior stays consistent with the historical windows flagged by K33—because that combination of technical confirmation and shifting holder dynamics is what will determine whether “bottoming” turns into a sustained trend.
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All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.
Other easily missed breeding spots include a tiny pocket of water beneath the soil in a potted plant, a discarded tire, or a planter saucer. Maintained, chlorinated pools and fountains with moving water generally aren’t the problem. Mosquitoes want still water—and the smaller the pool, the easier it is to miss.
They never walk past a container without glancing inside
Once mosquito experts learn what a breeding spot looks like, they see them everywhere.
In her own yard, a tarp left crumpled over some lumber became a collection of tiny pools after it rained. Buckets and cups forgotten after parties are equally inviting. Then there’s her neighbor’s wheelbarrow, which is full of weeds and refills whenever it rains. “I keep sneaking over there and emptying it out,” Bartholomay says. “The mosquitoes just love it.”
Where you live determines where else you need to look. In parts of Florida, some plants, like ornamental bromeliads, collect water in the cups of their leaves, allowing mosquitoes to breed several feet above the ground. Daniel Markowski, technical advisor with the American Mosquito Control Association, flags children’s toys—dump trucks, sand pails, plastic cups—and buried downspouts that aren’t draining properly. Mosquitoes can breed in the trapped water underground, then fly in and out through the top.
Democratic senators want the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to stop betting on California wildfires. They warn that traders could start fires to win their bets.
The letter went to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on Monday. Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley led it. It points back to wagers placed while Los Angeles burned in January 2025.
$1.2 Million Wagered While California Wildfires Burned
The Palisades and Eaton fires killed 31 people. They destroyed 16,246 buildings, according to CAL FIRE figures.
Polymarket is the largest betting site for real-world events. It opened its first wildfire bet on January 8, 2025. The fires had started a day earlier.
Traders put $1.2 million into roughly 20 questions. Rutgers historian Jamie L. Pietruska tracked the total.
One bet took $711,587 of that. It asked a single thing. When would the Palisades Fire be fully contained?
The biggest pool inside it was $274,797. That money sat on the latest date offered.
In plain terms, traders paid the most to bet firefighters would be slow.
The bet was settled using data from fire.ca.gov, in accordance with its published rules. That is the website of CAL FIRE, the state firefighting agency.
CAL FIRE hands over that data. It refuses to take anything back from these markets.
“Systems that tie financial gain to wildfire outcomes risk encouraging misuse, including arson, and are not compatible with our mission,” US Forest Service spokesperson, reported by High Country News.
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Fire Is Easier to Rig Than a Thermometer
In April, a Polymarket trader bet $119 on the weather in Paris. He walked away with $21,398. A sensor at Charles de Gaulle Airport had spiked for no clear reason. Météo-France called in the airport police.
The trick is old. In 1950, St. Louis police shut down a weather betting ring worth $2.6 million a year. Gamblers back then bribed officials to fake temperature records.
The Paris weather sensor case shows that one number can still settle a bet.
Fire is worse. Nobody can start a hurricane by hand.
Prosecutors have charged a 29-year-old man with starting the Palisades Fire. He faces up to 45 years and has pleaded not guilty.
Firefighters also know things outsiders do not. That echoes earlier insider trading on Kalshi claims. Polymarket added an on-chain detection system in May.
Why the CFTC Rules Never Mention Fire
The CFTC proposed a new rule on June 10. It checks each contract one at a time.
The test covers terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, and illegal activity. Comments closed on July 27.
Wildfire never made the list.
Arson is illegal. But these bets ask about containment dates, not the crime. That gap is what the senators want closed.
Polymarket has defended the markets. Founder Shayne Coplan told CBS News they carried the least risk and gave the most information. He added that he understood the sensitivity.
The Los Angeles bets ran offshore, where US traders were locked out. Wyldfyre, a play-money site built only for California fire risk, went offline last month.
The CFTC now has one question to answer. Is fire different from weather?
The post California Wildfire Bets Expose Polymarket’s Dark Side appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH) prices decline as Coldcard exploit enters a fifth day: Crypto Markets Today
Bitcoin and ether (ETH) are under pressure as the multimillion-dollar hack of the hardware wallet Coldcard enters a fifth day, raising questions over the safety of direct custody as a holding strategy.
The incident has rocked sentiment on crypto social media, with numerous small holders complaining of losing long-term holdings and reassessing their faith in crypto.
“Worse for sentiment, it [the hack] has spooked holders into sending coins back to exchanges, the opposite of the self-custody trend crypto is built on,” analysts at Marex said. “When the thing wobbling is cold storage itself, a cheaper barrel does not fix it.”
Given the gravity of the situation and the $114 million of bitcoin stolen, the price reaction of the largest cryptocurrency appears relatively restrained. BTC was recently 1.5% lower over 24 hours to $62,595, a level it has visited several times in recent weeks, with ether down nearly 2% to $1,842. The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index has dropped 2.5%.
Michael Saylor says he has never sold any of his own Bitcoin (BTC), not one satoshi. He published the defense hours after Strategy disclosed the sale of 1,638 coins.
His slogan built a following among retail holders. His company runs a treasury that sells coins to cover bills.
Michael Saylor Never Sold His Personal Bitcoin
Saylor drew the line himself on Monday.
“When I say “Never Sell Your Bitcoin,” I speak as one saver to another. I have never sold mine. Not one satoshi. Strategy is a public company, not my wallet. Since 2020, it has disclosed it may buy or sell $BTC to manage capital. Our shared conviction in Bitcoin remains unchanged,” he wrote.
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Two days earlier he shut down sale rumors spreading on the same platform, saying the company never carried a formal never-sell policy.
The Dividend Bill Behind the Sale
Monday’s filing put holdings at 842,138 BTC as of August 2. The stack has shrunk since late May, when it stood at 843,738.
Strategy sold at an average $63,957 a coin. Its cost basis is $75,419, so each coin left at a loss near $11,500.
The cash did two jobs. It lifted the USD reserve by $250 million to $4.0 billion and retired $81 million of STRC, a Bitcoin-backed preferred share that pays 12% a year.
That obligation keeps growing. Preferred dividends reached $400.7 million in the second quarter, up from $49.1 million a year earlier.
The next disclosure arrives within a week. It will show whether 10 weeks without net buying was a pause or a turn.
The post Michael Saylor: I Never Sold Bitcoin, MicroStrategy Did appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Americans are experiencing historic national pessimism. Polls find Americans feel that the country needs major changes, but doubt these changes are possible.
For many Americans, just following the news can feel exhausting. Each day, Americans see health protections rolled back, climate commitments abandoned, and more technologies that nobody asked for and nobody can opt out of. The decisions that shape our lives—health coverage, the air children will breathe, the tools they will grow up with—seem to be made far above our heads.
In many ways, the country is moving in the opposite direction the public wants. Americans largely favor expanding clean energy, yet federal incentives for it are being dismantled and the banks are walking away from their climate pledges. Similarly, national healthcare programs are more popular than ever, yet policy is moving to strip coverage from millions. And an astonishing 97% of Americans say the immensely wealthy AI industry should face some form of oversight, and yet Washington has moved to stop states from regulating it.
What is there to do when big companies, and even the government, stand in the way of progress on national emergencies? The scale of these problems alone is intimidating: one may reasonably worry, “Can I make any difference? Even if I take action, will others join in?” It is well documented that this sense of futility is demotivating. And, research also shows that when people believe powerful actors will not do their part, they conclude their own effort is both pointless and unfair, and they disengage from the issue. Faced with all of this, is civil society simply powerless?
Our research suggests a more hopeful outlook. Even amid systemic opposition, the public’s voice matters—a lot. Specifically, we find social change can be mobilized when two groups are united behind a solution: scientists and the public.
Through a mix of survey and field studies involving more than 55,000 Americans, we examined how people decide whether to act on a national problem when they receive signals about what to do from a variety of influential players in society: scientists, fellow citizens, governments, and private companies. The finding was strikingly consistent. The joint endorsement of scientific experts and the general public was the most powerful force motivating Americans to act, whether on climate, public health, or technology.
We found that when people learned that scientists and the public both backed a solution, they became more supportive of climate, health, and AI policies, more inclined to pursue solutions like electric vehicles and new vaccines, and more willing to donate their own money to the cause. Collectively, these choices are the building blocks of social change: the votes, purchases, donations, advocacy, and visible support through which public opinion begins to shape markets, movements, and eventually institutions.
Crucially, these effects held even when government bodies and private companies actively opposed the action. In one experiment we conducted, options backed by scientists and the public were chosen about 80% of the time, even when people learned both the government and industry opposed them. We then experimented with the reverse scenario: when a solution was backed by government and industry but opposed by scientists and the public. In this case, the solution was less than half as likely to be chosen.
In other words, failure of our major institutions need not leave the public powerless and immobilized. Government and industry opposition can make progress feel unrealistic, futile, or out of reach. But our findings point to an antidote to the demotivating pull of institutional inaction: it can be offset by a different kind of signal, a bottom-up one, that helps keep the public from giving up.
When you speak up, you are not simply expressing a private opinion. You are helping create the public signal that others use to decide whether change is possible. Your voice becomes part of the evidence that people are not alone in wanting change and that powerful institutions do not have to get the final word. When citizens’ support is made visible alongside scientific consensus, it can move others to act—even when government and industry stand in the way
Together, visible support from scientists and citizens can restore the two things institutional retreat takes away: confidence that action is sound, and confidence that it will not be taken alone.
Intuitively, scientists and the public meet two distinct human needs: Scientists are typically seen as knowledgeable, satisfying the need to be right, while fellow citizens are seen as relatable and likable, satisfying the need to belong. Our theory is that because the two core needs operate through different psychological channels, the duo is more persuasive than either alone. By contrast, the influence of government and industry on Americans’ decisions to take action is relatively weaker. Government support or opposition to a solution carried less weight than some may assume, perhaps due to Americans’ historically low trust in government.
While there is a lot to be hopeful about in these findings, there is an important catch. Our studies show what happens when people are given clear signals that scientists and the public hold a particular view. But in day-to-day life, people may not know what the general public or scientists actually think. We rarely get unfiltered information about public opinion or scientific consensus. Instead, their positions are conveyed to us through the media, political elites, and heads of industry who can amplify, mute, or distort them. The predictable result is that Americans badly misjudge where everyone stands. People consistently underestimate how many of their fellow citizens, and how many scientists, support action on issues like climate change. And when those misperceptions are corrected, willingness to engage goes up.
In our eyes, this points to a clear course of action: We must build coalitions between scientists and citizens and make those coalitions visible. A scientific consensus on its own can be shrugged off as esoteric or impractical, and a popular movement on its own may be dismissed as uninformed, but articulated together, in the form of “the experts agree, and so do the neighbors next door,” they become far harder to ignore.
In this effort, journalists, communicators, and advocates become indispensable, because the public cannot draw motivation from an agreement it does not know exists. Correcting the widespread underestimation of how much scientists and ordinary people actually want action may be one of the highest-leverage things a communicator can do. And it means no one should mistake the silence of governments and corporations for the last word. Their opposition, our results suggest, is far less paralyzing than it feels in the headlines, as long as the alternative coalition is loud enough to be heard.
None of this means institutions don’t matter. Ultimately, durable solutions need policy and capital behind them. But our findings overturn the assumption that may be underlying America’s current pessimism: that the public needs to wait for action from the top. It doesn’t. The most powerful force we found in moving Americans to act toward social change was not a government mandate or a corporate pledge, but the visible agreement of scientists and ordinary people. That coalition already exists on many of the nation’s most urgent problems—it may simply be invisible to Americans. Every time you voice support for a solution the science backs, you are not just expressing an opinion; you are supplying the evidence someone else needs to believe change is possible. Two hundred and fifty years in, that remains the idea this country stands for: that ordinary people, not the powerful, get the final word.
A crypto whale has bet more than $23 million that gold price goes up. Deutsche Bank agrees. Its analysts put gold’s fair value near $4,700 an ounce, well above Monday’s price.
The gold industry’s own research body disagrees. It sees gold stuck near $4,100 for the rest of the year. That gap is worth watching.
The Whale Sold Crypto to Buy Gold
On-chain monitor Mlm on-chain spotted the moves across four wallets. They belong to Loracle, one of the most watched traders on Hyperliquid.
Loracle closed a 503,000 HYPE long worth $26.5 million. He then sold another 800,000 HYPE for $52.7 million. A short of 595,000 HYPE, worth $31.4 million, took its place.
He also closed about $95 million of long bets on Ethereum, Zcash and Solana. Then came the gold long. An Ethereum short above $28 million followed.
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So how big is $23 million here? All of Hyperliquid’s builder-run markets held about $3.59 billion in open bets on Monday, per analytics site Loris Tools. The bet is large but not dominant.
Those markets exist because of HIP-3. That upgrade lets outside teams launch their own futures markets on Hyperliquid. Gold and stock contracts trade there, not on the main exchange.
Loracle’s record is why people watch him. On-chain trackers say he built $42.2 million in profits over roughly 10 months. One HYPE short then wiped it out in 18 days. He closed that trade down $46.46 million. HYPE went on to hit a record $76.70 in June.
Why Deutsche Bank Sees $4,700
Analysts Michael Hsueh and Bryant Xu sent the note to clients on Monday. They say gold has been in an explosive price phase since August 2024. Only five such phases appear in the data since 1975.
The pair ran three tests to see if gold should fall further.
The first compares gold with other commodities. It points to $2,600 an ounce. The second uses a statistical bubble test. That one suggests the drop already ended near $3,900.
The third test settled it.
“Third, gold has closed the gap to fair value… we would still see gold fair value as likely to register around USD 4,700/oz by year-end, above our USD 4,600/oz forecast for Q4’26.”
The bank kept its $4,600 fourth-quarter target.
The $3,900 call is close to what actually happened. Gold bottomed at $3,959.33 on 24 June, World Gold Council data shows. It had peaked at $5,595.47 on 29 January.
Central bank buying backs the bullish case too. Banks bought 289 tonnes in the second quarter. That is a record for any second quarter. It is also five times the 57 tonnes bought in the first. Poland took 51 tonnes and China 33 tonnes.
The Bubble Test Nobody Can Time
That bubble test has a long name. It is the Backward Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (BSADF) test. In plain terms, it spots prices climbing faster than a normal market allows.
Deutsche Bank says the reading has fallen from 3.3 to 1.3. It still sits above the level that flags a bubble.
The test comes from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bank for central banks. Its December 2025 study found gold and the S&P 500 in bubble territory at the same time. That had not happened in 50 years.
The authors added a warning that stings bulls and bears alike.
“While the test has reliably detected past bubbles, it provides no information on when bubbles may burst.”
The BIS also checked who was buying. Small investors poured into gold funds. Big institutions sold or sat still.
The Gold Council Sees a Smaller Range
The World Gold Council is the industry’s research body. Its mid-year outlook is far less bullish.
If nothing changes, it expects gold to trade within 5% of $4,100 for the rest of the year. That caps the range near $4,305. Deutsche Bank’s number sits roughly $400 higher.
Gold needs a trigger to reach $4,500, the council said. It listed a geopolitical shock, a shift in rate expectations, or steady long-term buying.
Right now the opposite looks more likely. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates before October under Chairman Kevin Warsh. Higher rates make gold less appealing to hold.
The council also puts a price on central bank demand. Every extra 20 to 30 tonnes above the usual 600 tonnes a year lifts gold by about 1%.
Gold futures traded near $4,093 on Monday, down 0.3%, in line with a flat August gold price outlook. Crypto money has already moved into tokenized gold products this year.
Loracle has now added leverage to the same bet. The test he is trading against still cannot say when it ends.
The post Whale Bets $23 Million on Gold as Deutsche Bank Sees Fair Value at $4,700 appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Bitget said it will stop providing crypto trading services to residents of Japan, citing efforts to comply with local regulations.
The crypto exchange, ranked fifth by Coingecko with trading volume of roughly $714.7 million over the past 24 hours, stopped accepting new registrations from Japanese residents on Sunday, according to a Monday announcement.
Japan reclassified cryptocurrencies as financial instruments following legislation approved by its parliament in mid-July. The new rules are expected to take effect next year and include fines of about $62,800 and prison sentences of up to 10 years for operation without registration.
Existing users who believe Bitget has incorrectly identified them as Japanese residents must complete a Level-2 identity verification, including proof of address by Nov. 1, the company said. Accounts that do not complete the process will be considered Japanese, it added.
Bitget will place those accounts into close-only mode starting Nov. 1, according to its FAQ. Users will not be able to open or add to positions or use services, including spot and futures trading, copy trading, trading bots and their earn products. Deposits, subject to limits, and withdrawals will remain available.
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