Crypto exchange Kraken and onchain asset manager Maple have launched an onchain warehouse financing facility for crypto-backed loans, applying a lending structure widely used in traditional credit markets to institutional digital asset lending. 

According to Thursday’s announcement, the facility will fund Kraken’s OTC lending business using a bankruptcy-remote special purpose vehicle (SPV) and USDC-denominated financing.

Unlike traditional bilateral crypto loans, the facility is structured through the SPV, with Maple providing senior financing and Kraken retaining a stake in the transaction. The arrangement is intended to let Kraken expand its institutional lending business without tying up additional balance-sheet capital.

Tokenized credit has grown to more than $6.2 billion in distributed value from roughly $1.87 billion a year ago, according to RWA.xyz data. Maple is the sector’s largest platform, with approximately $1.4 billion in tokenized credit assets.

Maple said the structure gives institutional lenders access to senior, overcollateralized exposure backed by Bitcoin and Ether while allowing collateral and loan performance to be tracked onchain.

Commonly used in large commercial transactions, in particular commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), a bankruptcy-remote SPV removes the borrower’s ability to file for bankruptcy.

Kraken affiliates will originate, sell and service the loans while retaining a position in the transaction. Kraken Financial, a Wyoming-chartered Special Purpose Depository Institution, will hold the underlying collateral, while independent SPV administrator Zaria will oversee administration of the facility. The companies did not disclose the facility’s size or financial terms.

Related: FalconX expands tokenized credit facility to Monad network in lending push

Tokenized credit market continues to expand

The announcement comes as crypto lending continues to rebuild following the 2022 market collapse, with firms expanding institutional lending and blockchain-based credit infrastructure after the failures of lenders such as Celsius and BlockFi.

In May, Ripple secured a $200 million credit facility from investment manager Neuberger Berman to expand the lending capacity of its institutional prime brokerage business. The financing is intended to support margin lending and other credit products for hedge funds, trading firms and other institutional clients.

The same month, analysts at Bernstein said tokenized credit could represent a $4 trillion addressable market as blockchain-based lending expands beyond niche use cases into sectors including mortgages, auto loans and small-business lending.

Source: RWA.xyz

While onchain lending has continued to evolve, some parts of the decentralized finance sector have struggled. Earlier this month, lending protocol Radiant Capital said it would wind down after failing to recover from a $50 million exploit in 2024, citing an inability to replace lost funds or secure new capital.

Magazine: The end of anonymity? AI could unmask crypto’s hidden identities

TLDR:

• Cardano active addresses have spiked for the second time this month as ADA trades near 2020 lows.
• A Cardano-based wallet protocol was exploited for nearly 129 million ADA, worth roughly $20 million. 
• Charles Hoskinson’s warnings and governance disputes have fueled FUD while boosting social dominance.
• Analysts flag a TD Sequential buy signal but warn a bull trap may form near the $0.160–$0.176 range.

Cardano active addresses have spiked sharply even as ADA trades near its lowest price since December 2020. On-chain activity is rising for the second time this month alongside social dominance.

The combination of extreme price pressure and growing community debate has pulled Cardano back into the spotlight. Traders and analysts are now watching closely for what comes next.

On-Chain Activity Rises Amid Price Decline

Santiment data shows Cardano active addresses and social dominance have both surged simultaneously. This pattern has appeared twice before this month, each time preceding a mild relief rally.

The current setup mirrors those earlier instances closely, according to the charting data shared by Santiment Intelligence on X.

Much of the attention stems from statements made by Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s founder. He recently warned that more Cardano-based projects could fail in the current environment. He also announced a step back from public involvement, which added to broader community uncertainty.

Governance disputes over treasury funding have further divided the Cardano ecosystem. These disagreements have fueled bearish sentiment across social platforms. However, they have also driven increased conversation and engagement around ADA at a critical price level.

Despite the FUD, the spike in daily active addresses points to heightened user engagement. Historically, such setups have preceded short-term price recoveries. Santiment noted that the two previous occurrences of this pattern resulted in at least a mild upward move.

Analysts Flag Bull Trap Risk After Security Breach

A security breach affecting a Cardano-based wallet protocol has added further pressure on ADA. The exploit drained nearly 129 million ADA, valued at roughly $20 million at current prices. This incident came at a particularly vulnerable moment for the broader Cardano ecosystem.

Despite that, Ali Charts flagged a TD Sequential buy signal on ADA’s daily chart. This technical signal typically points toward a near-term price bounce. However, the analyst cautioned that the wider market structure does not support a sustained recovery at this time.

Any relief rally is expected to meet resistance between $0.160 and $0.176. Ali Charts noted that a failure to break above that range could trap buyers and push ADA toward new lows. The $0.176 level is the key level traders should watch for signs of rejection.

The convergence of a buy signal with ongoing negative headlines creates a mixed picture for ADA. Traders are advised to proceed with caution in this environment.

The combination of a security breach, governance tension, and Hoskinson’s withdrawal creates significant headwinds for any recovery attempt.

BitGo Holdings said it cut nearly 15% of its workforce on Thursday, a move its CEO framed as a “one-time” restructuring as the company directs more resources toward security, trading, stablecoins and AI-driven infrastructure.

CEO and co-founder Mike Belshe shared the decision on X, writing that the crypto industry’s evolution has changed how financial services should be built and that the firm needs to be “sharper, more focused” in the areas that matter most. BitGo did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Key takeaways

• BitGo laid off about 15% of staff on Thursday, according to CEO Mike Belshe’s post on X.
• Company focus areas highlighted by Belshe include security, trading, stablecoins, settlement, and AI-powered infrastructure.
• BitGo said the reductions are intended as a one-time action and does not expect further workforce cuts.
• Despite hiring plans—51 open roles listed on its job board—BitGo’s stock fell on the day of the announcement.

CEO outlines “focused” priorities after workforce cut

In his statement, Belshe described the layoffs as a difficult decision and linked the timing to broader changes in the ecosystem. He argued that BitGo’s operating approach must align with how financial services are increasingly delivered, and he tied the restructuring to a need for sharper prioritization.

Belshe specifically pointed to five internal focus areas: security, trading, stablecoins, settlement, and artificial intelligence-powered infrastructure. By emphasizing both core infrastructure services (such as security and settlement) and newer build directions (including AI infrastructure), BitGo is signaling that it wants to consolidate headcount while potentially scaling specific capabilities.

How many roles could be affected

BitGo did not confirm the exact number of employees impacted. However, the firm’s 2025 annual report—published in March—listed 603 full-time employees as of Dec. 31, 2025. If the workforce reduction matches the “nearly 15%” figure, the impact could plausibly be on the order of about 90 employees.

Belshe characterized the cuts as “a one-time action” and said BitGo does not “anticipate further reductions.” That matters for employees and investors alike: it suggests the company intends to reset capacity once rather than continue trimming on an ongoing basis, even as it reallocates resources to the priorities outlined in the announcement.

Hiring continues even as company reduces headcount

While announcing layoffs, BitGo also indicated it is still looking to hire. Its job board lists 51 open roles across multiple regions, according to the posting referenced in reporting. That creates an important tension investors will likely watch: reductions in one part of the organization paired with continued recruitment in others.

For builders and candidates, the implication is that BitGo may be reshaping teams rather than retreating from growth entirely. For market participants, the bigger question is whether the layoffs are mainly operational efficiency in a down cycle—or whether they signal that BitGo sees near-term demand specifically for the capabilities it highlighted, such as AI-enabled infrastructure and stablecoin-related services.

Broader industry backdrop: cuts spread across crypto

The BitGo layoffs arrive amid a wider wave of job reductions across crypto firms in 2026. Reporting cited that companies in the sector have cut more than 5,000 jobs so far this year, with many pointing to a combination of efficiency improvements—often attributed to AI—and a broader market slump.

Examples referenced in the coverage include:

• Block Inc., which cut around 4,000 jobs (about half its workforce) in February, according to earlier reporting.
• Robinhood, which cut 10% of its workforce on June 16, as previously reported.
• Kraken’s parent, Payward, cutting 150 staff in May, according to earlier coverage.
• Dune, which reduced staff by 25% in May.
• Coinbase’s reported reduction of 700 employees (about 14% of its workforce).
• Gemini, which laid off 200 employees earlier in the year, and Crypto.com, which reportedly cut about 180 staff, with both citing rising AI use.

The piece also pointed to broader US technology layoffs, noting that over 121,500 layoffs from more than 200 companies had occurred so far in 2026, according to Layoffs.fyi. This context frames BitGo’s actions as part of a larger labor realignment across the tech sector—not solely a crypto-specific adjustment.

Market reaction and what to watch next

BitGo’s stock fell after the announcement, closing Thursday down 4.67% at $4.80, extending a nearly 73% decline from its public debut at $18 on Jan. 22, according to reporting and market data from Google Finance.

Going forward, the key items for readers are whether BitGo can turn the restructuring into measurable progress in the areas Belshe named—especially security, stablecoins, and AI-driven infrastructure—and whether the “one-time” nature of the layoffs holds. In an environment where many crypto firms are still trimming costs, investors will likely look for signs that the company’s resource shift translates into stronger execution rather than simply further consolidation.

Asset manager 21shares has scaled back several of its bullish forecasts for the crypto industry this year, saying institutional adoption continues to strengthen even as weak market conditions and muted retail participation have slowed the pace of growth.

In its midyear outlook, the asset manager said the industry’s underlying infrastructure has advanced more quickly than prices. Areas such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), stablecoin regulation, tokenization and prediction markets have continued to mature, but weaker crypto prices, major DeFi exploits and slower-than-expected enterprise adoption have pushed several of its 2026 targets out of reach.

One of the report’s clearest conclusions was that Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year market cycle remains intact, despite signs the asset class is becoming more institutionally driven.

“After peaking at around $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin pulled back sharply and has continued to trade in line with prior post-halving patterns,” the analysts wrote, arguing that institutional ownership has softened market drawdowns but has not fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior.

Bitcoin’s predictable four-year cycle continues to be a major driver of market conditions. Source: 21shares

Former 21shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder, who departed the company following its acquisition by FalconX in 2025, recently made a similar observation about how institutional investors have reshaped crypto markets.

“The investor base is larger, more institutional, and more connected to the broader financial system,” Snyder wrote in a recent Substack post. “As a result, competing narratives, geopolitical developments, and macroeconomic shifts all have a much larger impact on crypto pricing than they once did.”

Prediction markets expected to outperform

Among the sectors outperforming expectations, 21shares singled out prediction markets as one of crypto’s strongest growth areas, projecting annual trading volume will surpass $100 billion this year.

The report also highlighted consolidation as a defining trend across the industry. Public companies holding crypto on their balance sheets are beginning to diverge, with many smaller treasury players trading below the value of their digital asset holdings, pointing to further consolidation in the sector.

A similar pattern is emerging across Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem, where a handful of dominant rollups continue to gain market share while dozens of smaller networks struggle to attract meaningful users and liquidity.

Related: Bitcoin miners need billions to fund AI ambitions, led by IREN’s $21B gap

Crypto ETFs show resilience despite outflows

That resilience is also evident in crypto exchange-traded products, which have continued attracting long-term institutional investors despite weaker market conditions.

While US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded roughly $3 billion in net outflows this year, 21shares said those figures don’t tell the full story. Holdings remain just above 1.25 million BTC, near an all-time high in for the token, suggesting many investors have held onto their positions through the downturn.

“Investors are holding through volatility or quietly building strategic positions, even with Bitcoin trading well below its highs,” the analysts wrote.

Crypto ETP assets have fallen from their peak, but cumulative investor inflows have remained resilient. Source: 21shares

The analysts also pointed to improving regulatory clarity in the United States, citing the Securities and Exchange Commission’s generic listing standards that have helped convert a backlog of crypto ETF applications into a steady stream of new product launches beyond Bitcoin and Ether.

“Hyperliquid stands out,” the analysts wrote. “US spot ETFs tracking the asset attracted over $150 million in net inflows in under a month, evidence that traditional capital continues to flow toward digital assets.”

Related: CBOE weighs converting BTC, ETH continuous futures into perpetual futures: Report

Bitcoin’s drop below $60,000 has triggered nearly $1.48 billion in crypto liquidations after fresh U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations that interest rates could remain higher for longer.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3.3% to an intraday low of $58,188 on June 25 before recovering to around $59,200 at press time. Ethereum (ETH) declined 4.7% to $1,567, while XRP dropped 3.7% to $1.03. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization also fell 2.2% to $2.13 trillion.

According to CoinGlass, more than 217,700 traders were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with total losses reaching approximately $1.48 billion. Long positions accounted for $1.21 billion of those liquidations, while short traders lost about $270 million. Bitcoin led the selloff with roughly $665 million in liquidations, followed by Ethereum at $359 million and XRP at $50.5 million.

Derivatives positioning keeps volatility elevated

Alongside the spot market decline, traders are preparing for one of the largest Bitcoin options expiries of the year. Data from Deribit shows roughly $9.33 billion in Bitcoin options, representing 157,611 open contracts, are scheduled to expire on Friday.

Call open interest is concentrated between the $75,000 and $90,000 strike prices, while put positioning is clustered across the $20,000 to $70,000 range. Deribit’s max pain price stands at $72,000, well above Bitcoin’s current market price. With Bitcoin trading far below the largest call positions, options traders could continue adjusting hedges into expiry, increasing short-term price swings.

Meanwhile, XRP derivatives remain tilted toward bullish positioning despite the broader selloff. CoinGlass data shows Binance XRP traders maintained a 2.53 long-to-short ratio, while OKX traders posted a 2.68 ratio, suggesting many participants are still positioned for a rebound. However, such crowded long positioning can increase liquidation risk if selling pressure persists.

Offering a longer-term perspective, analyst Daan Crypto Trades said he sees the green support zone on his chart as an area to gradually accumulate Bitcoin rather than trying to identify the exact market bottom.

He added that the weekly 200-week moving average has historically provided attractive value and said he remains comfortable accumulating in the $60,000 region, even though he believes lower prices remain possible during 2026.

Meanwhile, fellow analyst Lennaert Snyder said he had already taken profits on most of his Bitcoin short position following the latest breakdown.

“If we’re printing new lows I’m eyeing 55K for a reaction, but even the 40s are fine with me.”

Inflation data reinforces higher-for-longer outlook

According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 4.1% year over year in May, up from 3.8% in April, while headline PCE rose 0.4% on a monthly basis.

Although both readings came in slightly below economists’ expectations of 4.2% annually and 0.5% monthly, inflation remained more than double the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The report also showed core PCE increased 0.3% during the month and 3.4% from a year earlier. At the same time, the BEA reported that personal income rose 0.7%, while real consumer spending increased 0.3%, suggesting the U.S. economy remains resilient despite elevated borrowing costs. First-quarter GDP growth was also revised upward to 2.1%.

The inflation data arrived as institutional demand for Bitcoin continued to soften. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded roughly $6.4 billion in net outflows over the past 30 days, the largest monthly redemption period since the products launched. Pressure has also spread to equities, with Strategy shares falling more than 12% below $100, coinciding with Bitcoin’s break under $60,000.

Prediction markets have also turned increasingly cautious. According to Polymarket, traders are assigning a 66% probability that Bitcoin falls below $50,000, while the odds of a decline below $45,000 have risen to 46%.

Adding to those concerns, Bank of America recently revised its outlook and now expects three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, replacing its earlier expectation that policymakers would keep rates unchanged.

For the past two cycles, Bitcoin DeFi has lived more as a promise than a category.

Programmable Bitcoin has remained a vision held by a certain breed of Bitcoin maxi who believes that the world’s largest cryptocurrency can become productive without losing its security or sound money qualities.

Yet the closure of Bitcoin scaling platform Botanix earlier this month has called that vision into question.

If a well-funded, technically ambitious Bitcoin layer-2 with live apps, integrations and competitive yields can’t attract enough usage to survive, does that mean Bitcoiners simply don’t care about decentralized finance?

Bitcoin DeFi remains a niche proposition in 2026, despite years of being touted as the next big thing.

DefiLlama’s dashboard shows just $4.12 billion of total value locked (TVL) across all of the Bitcoin DeFi protocols. That’s a rounding error next to Bitcoin’s $1.2 trillion market cap, and the hundreds of billions held via spot exchange-traded funds, corporate treasuries and custodial accounts.

Andre Dragosch, head of research Europe at Bitwise, told Cointelegraph, “Bitcoin is winning decisively as a monetary asset and as pristine collateral, but the case for Bitcoin as a standalone DeFi execution layer was always structurally weaker than the narrative suggested.”

Botanix closes after four years

When Botanix announced it was winding down after nearly four years of work and a year of mainnet uptime, the team didn’t blame a hack or a regulatory shock; they blamed demand.

Botanix described a chain that “worked” in every technical sense: 25 million transactions, 200,000 wallets, and tens of millions of dollars in bridged funds, yet it never generated the fee volume needed to cover its infrastructure costs.

Users came for the yield, treated BTC as store-of-value collateral, and then largely stuck to passive, buy-and-hold strategies, rather than actively borrowing, trading, or moving funds often enough to generate meaningful fee volume.

Related: Fireblocks to integrate Stacks for institutional-grade Bitcoin DeFi

Like most BTCFi stacks today, Botanix still requires users to bridge their Bitcoin into a tokenized version on a separate Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)-based chain before they can access DeFi. That introduces additional bridge and smart contract assumptions that worry many Bitcoiners.

Botanix’s shutdown notice. Source: Botanix

Even so, Botanix co-founder Willem Schroé told Cointelegraph that he wouldn’t have changed the core design. Despite Botanix offering what he described as “the best rates in the industry” and a more Bitcoin-aligned security model than typical wrapped BTC bridges, wrapped BTC on Ethereum still out-competed Botanix.

He attributed that to Ethereum’s “huge infrastructure network and Lindy effect,” as well as a mix of liquidity depth, user experience and regulatory comfort.

What Botanix learned about Bitcoin DeFi

The team concluded that Bitcoin is still viewed as a reserve asset rather than something that has programmable utility.

For most existing use cases like lending, leveraged exposure, or yield, a wrapped BTC position on a large, mature EVM ecosystem such as Ethereum is “genuinely sufficient” for most users. Rather than bridge into a Bitcoin-aligned EVM chain like Botanix, users preferred to stick with wBTC on venues where the liquidity, apps and integrations already exist.

Related: Mercado Bitcoin expands LatAm RWA push with $20M in Rootstock private credit

Botanix also pointed to onchain activity consolidating around venues like Hyperliquid, and major centralized exchanges and retail-facing fintechs that “own the user relationship,” leaving independent infrastructure “rowing upstream” against convenience and branding.

Wilhelm said he hopes Botanix’s wind-down “will definitely be looked at by others,” and framed the process as a professionally managed experiment whose lessons other BTCFi builders should take seriously.

Bitcoiners, DeFi and wrapped BTC

While estimates vary, only a small fraction of Bitcoin’s supply is currently productive in DeFi, and most of that sits in wrapped BTC products on Ethereum and its L2s like Base and Arbitrum, as well as Polygon, Solana and BNB Smart Chain. A smaller percentage is on “Bitcoin L2” chains, with Bitcoin-aligned L2s and sidechains accounting for a modest share of that activity by value.

Tokenized BTC products themselves represent just a sliver of the asset: A May 2026 analysis estimated that roughly $20 billion worth of BTC — less than 2% of the total Bitcoin supply — is circulating on EVM chains in wrapped form.

Total Value Locked (TVL) in Bitcoin DeFi. Source: DeFiLlama

An October 2025 GoMining survey of 730 Bitcoin holders found that 77% of respondents had never used a BTCFi platform, and only 3% integrated BTCFi into their overall Bitcoin strategy.

Even allowing for sample bias (these respondents were plugged-in, survey-answering BTC holders), the numbers show that BTCFi platforms that keep users in Bitcoin-aligned stacks remain a niche activity rather than a mass behavior.

Justin d’Anethan, head of research at crypto private markets advisory firm Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph, “There is more liquidity and better yields on EVM or SVM [Solana Virtual Machine] native solutions than on BTC solutions, period.”

When clients ask about “putting their Bitcoin to work,” the practical routes, he said, are still centralized desks, exchanges lending out BTC at 2% to 4%, basis trade structures “à la Ethena,” or institutional credit pools like Maple.

Related: Bitcoin recovery meets DeFi tensions as Aave rift deepens: Finance Redefined

He said the big obstacle for most Bitcoiners was the risk of bridging to a less secure Bitcoin L2. For “hardcore BTC maxis,” the default remains cold storage, HODLing and riding price appreciation, rather than trying to “eke out 2-3% with counterparty risk.”

Native BTCFi as a structural mismatch

Dragosch said Botanix’s failure suggested that demand for standalone Bitcoin DeFi execution layers was much weaker than their backers expected.

He argued that capital that “genuinely wants yield has migrated to wrapped BTC on mature, liquid venues rather than bridging into bespoke federations.”

In this view, the problem isn’t just that Bitcoiners haven’t “discovered” native DeFi yet; it’s that the architecture and user base are misaligned. Bitcoin’s base layer is slow, conservative and firmly anchored in the store-of-value narrative.

“Bitcoin as reserve collateral is the durable trade,” Dr. Dragosch said, “the next leg of adoption runs through institutions and balance sheets, not necessarily through onchain execution layers.”

77% of respondents have never used a BTCFi platform. Source: GoMining

Who is still building BTCFi, and for whom?

Diego Gutierrez Zaldivar, chief executive of RootstockLabs, a Bitcoin-secured, EVM-compatible sidechain, doesn’t buy the idea that there’s “no demand” for Bitcoin-backed lending, yield products or broader BTCFi services.

He said the main constraint is trust: putting in place the operational, legal and risk management frameworks that institutions need.

More than 40% of all Bitcoin DeFi activity now runs through Rootstock, he said, including real-world asset settlements and institutional vaults. Over the past year, he said, funds have started asking to deposit hundreds or even thousands of BTC at a time into Rootstock-based products; flows that were almost unheard of two or three years ago.

Chains TVL. Source: DeFiLlama

Orkun Mahir Kılıç, co-founder of Chainway Labs, which is behind Citrea, a Bitcoin-anchored rollup combining the Bitcoin Virtual Machine (BVM) and zero-knowledge proofs, argued that cloning EVM DeFi primitives onto Bitcoin is a dead end, and said that Botanix’s experience is a verdict on that model, rather than BTCFi itself.

Orkun Mahir Kılıç is co-founder of Chainway Labs, behind Citrea, a Bitcoin-anchored rollup that keeps user assets inside Bitcoin’s security perimeter and proves its state with zero-knowledge proofs. He argued that cloning EVM DeFi primitives onto Bitcoin is a dead end, and said that Botanix’s experience is a verdict on that model, rather than BTCFi itself.

He told Cointelegraph that “more secure” doesn’t change most people’s behavior.

“People don’t price counterparty risk until something breaks,” he said. ”Where it matters” is for institutions and large holders that need trust-minimized transactions with no custodian to fail.

“For everyone else, the reason to be here isn’t the security guarantee in the abstract; it’s the applications that don’t exist elsewhere.”

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt

In 2022, Kraken began institutional cryptocurrency derivatives trading on PowerTrade, a company operated out of El Salvador and co-founded by Mario Gomez Lozada and Bernd Sischka.

In October 2025, when the price of bitcoin fell and markets declined, Kraken said it became concerned about PowerTrade’s liquidity and creditworthiness and tried to withdraw its funds, but was unable to, according to the filing.

Rather than returning the funds, the lawsuit claims that PowerTrade carried out a series of unauthorized transactions that moved Kraken’s account from holding more than $6 million to a negative balance of nearly $2 million.

This was done through a block of around 100 “corrections,” related to trades that had expired or settled months earlier, the filing said. Payward said in the filing that it was concerned that PowerTrade would rely on the “debt” it had artificially created to appropriate Payward’s bitcoin collateral.

PowerTrade did not respond to a request for comment by press time.

UPDATE (June. 25, 16:45 UTC): Updates amount of losses as per new filing, removes mention of DIFC freezing order

Jiang Zhuoer, one of China’s best-known bitcoin BTC$59,472.89 miners and founder of the LeBit mining pool, predicted that the current bear market will bottom in the fourth quarter at roughly $42,000-$44,000.

The forecast, made in Chinese on X, puts the low some 30% below bitcoin’s current level near $60,700, and rests less on the cryptocurrency’s performance than on Strategy, the largest corporate holder of the token, according to an automated translation.

Jiang analyzed Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV), the ratio of the company’s stock price to the per-share value of the bitcoin it holds, which has dropped to 0.72. A number above 1 means investors value the company at a premium to its bitcoin stack; below 1 means they value it at less.

Jiang’s figure has the market pricing Strategy about 28% below the bitcoin it owns, a sign of deep pessimism toward the trade.

That reading is close to the 0.7 low Strategy hit on May 11, 2022, during the last bull-to-bear turn, he said, which leads him to think mNAV is near its floor for this cycle.

Multicoin Capital has projected that Hyperliquid’s HYPE token could reach $319 by 2028 despite identifying several structural and market risks that could threaten its long-term outlook.

According to a new report from Multicoin Capital, the investment firm expects Hyperliquid (HYPE) to appreciate roughly fivefold from its current price near $64, based on a base-case scenario in which Hyperliquid generates about $8 billion in annual earnings by 2028 and trades at a 20-times earnings multiple.

Multicoin also disclosed that it began accumulating HYPE in February, making it one of the largest positions in its liquid fund, while adopting a three-day no-trade policy after publishing the report.

Why Multicoin believes Hyperliquid can justify a higher valuation

Much of the firm’s conviction comes from Hyperliquid’s rapid expansion during 2025. According to Multicoin, the decentralized exchange generated about $873 million in revenue from roughly $2.9 trillion in trading volume while growing its user base from around 301,000 to 923,000. During the same period, open interest climbed from approximately $2 billion to $6 billion.

Current market data cited in the report show Hyperliquid now accounts for more than 59% of decentralized perpetual futures open interest. Its outstanding open interest has also reached about $9.6 billion, exceeding that of its largest on-chain rivals combined.

Beyond decentralized markets, Multicoin argued that Hyperliquid has continued narrowing the gap with centralized exchanges. Monthly perpetual futures trading volume has reached roughly 17% of Binance’s level, while open interest stands at about 21% of Binance’s, figures the firm compared with Binance’s own early growth trajectory.

Another pillar of the investment case is HIP-3, an upgrade that allows third-party teams to launch perpetual markets tied to assets such as stocks, commodities, and equity indexes. 

According to Multicoin, open interest linked to real-world assets has already surpassed $2.9 billion, while an officially licensed S&P 500 perpetual contract generated more than $100 million in average daily trading volume during its first week.

The report also expects options trading, prediction markets, portfolio margining, and deeper integration with HyperEVM applications to expand Hyperliquid’s revenue opportunities over the coming years. Multicoin argued these additions could help transform the platform into what it described as an “everything exchange” offering around-the-clock access to multiple asset classes.

What risks could prevent the $319 forecast

Even with its optimistic valuation, Multicoin acknowledged that several factors could derail its forecast. The report identified decentralization challenges, regulatory uncertainty, governance issues, increasing competition, and potential bad debt as the primary risks facing the protocol.

Value capture remains another reason behind the firm’s bullish outlook. According to the report, approximately 99% of Hyperliquid’s protocol revenue is used to repurchase HYPE, with those tokens effectively removed from circulation. Multicoin also noted that Hyperliquid has never raised outside capital and operates without a separate equity layer, allowing the protocol’s economics to accrue directly to token holders.

The report estimates Hyperliquid has generated about $869 million in trailing earnings for HYPE holders. Based on a token price near $63, Multicoin calculated that HYPE trades at roughly 36 times trailing earnings, or about 30 times after accounting for revenue associated with Hyperliquid’s Coinbase and USDC agreement.

Meanwhile, technical charts present a more cautious picture than the firm’s long-term forecast. On the four-hour timeframe, HYPE is forming a bearish double-top pattern, with a neckline near the $52.7 support level.

If sellers push the token below that support and confirm the pattern, the measured downside target points toward the $28.5 area, suggesting traders may continue watching technical risks alongside Multicoin’s longer-term fundamental outlook.