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Stifel predicts bitcoin (BTC) price crash to $38,000. Yes, you read it right.

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Stifel predicts bitcoin (BTC) price crash to $38,000. Yes, you read it right.

The race is on among analysts to forecast how far bitcoin could drop, with target prices dropping further every day. The latest to jump in is Stifel, a premier, full-service financial services firm headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

Analysts at the 136-year-old firm predict the bitcoin price could crash to as low as $38,000.

“Already down -41% from the high, bitcoin super-bears have followed a linear trend suggesting a potential low of~$38K,” the team led by Barry B. Bannister said in a note to clients on Wednesday.

They’re looking at straight line drawn across the low points of every major bitcoin crash since 2010. Bitcoin slumped 93% in 2011, 84% in 2015, 83% in 2018 and 76% in 2022. A line connecting those market bottoms slopes upward and points to $38,000 as the potential nadir for the current slide.

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Bitcoin peaked over $126,000 in October and has since crashed to nearly $70,000 revisiting levels last seen in November 2024.

The curios case of Benjamin Bitcoin

The Stifel analysts explained the bearish case with an analogy tied to the movie “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.”

In the movie and the F. Scott Fiztgerald story on which it is based, Button gets younger as everyone else ages. Bitcoin is like that: A fixed supply cap of 21 million BTC made it stronger — younger in the analysts’ terms — as the dollar weakened from regular money printing.

Now it’s fraying, like the kid version of Button, who looks 10 but acts 80, stuck playing piano for retirees.

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Bitcoin used to rise with more global cash and weaker dollars, but since 2025, the relationship has reversed. It now falls with the dollar. The Dollar Index has dropped nearly 1% this year, extending last year’s near 10% slide.

“Prior to 2025, Bitcoin rose when the dollar fell and Global M2 money supply (converted to dollars) rose, thus “aging backward” versus fiat, but since 2025 the relationship has reversed,” the analysts said.

The behavior is compounded by bitcoin closely following Wall Street’s tech heavy Nasdaq 100 index and growth stocks, surging on dovish pivots by the Federal Reserve and slumping on hawkish ones. Though the Fed cut interest rates in the final three meetings of 2025, those largely carried a hawkish tone, downplaying faster cuts in future.

That tone is ominous, the analysts said, especially as technology companies are borrowing more heavily, which has raised their borrowing costs. This could lead to financial tightening, hitting stock valuations and adding to the pain in the bitcoin market.

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Crypto World

Solana Price Charts Are Hinting at a Potential Rally Toward $110 Next

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Solana Price Charts Are Hinting at a Potential Rally Toward $110 Next

Solana’s SOL (SOL) has rallied 10% over the past 24 hours, rising to an intraday high of $86 on Wednesday.

The recovery was accompanied by a leap in futures activity, with SOL’s open interest rising by more than 5% to $5.27 billion.

Analysts are now focusing on the short-term technical setup and fundamental indicators that may signal a major turning point for SOL.

Key takeaways:

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  • SOL price has risen 10% in 24 hours, fueled by bullishness in the broader market and Solana ETF inflows.

  • Solana’s symmetrical triangle breakout targets $110 SOL price.

SOL recovers with the crypto market

The SOL/USD pair rose as much as 13.6% to $86 on Wednesday from a two-week low of $75 on Tuesday, amid a marketwide recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC), the market leader, was trading at $66,800 at the time of writing, up 5% over the 24 hours. Second-placed Ether (ETH) has gained about 8% on the day to trade just above $1,990. XRP (XRP) has also posted significant daily gains among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, up 6% over the same period.

As a result, the global crypto market capitalization is up 4% on the day to $2.28 trillion on Wednesday.

Performance of top-cap cryptocurrencies: Source: CoinMarketCap

Solana’s surge today is accompanied by significant short liquidations totaling $15.4 million over the last 24 hours, signaling intense demand-side pressure.

The buyers were also US-based spot Solana ETFs, which have recorded $40 million in net inflows since Feb. 9.

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Spot Solana ETFs flows table. Source: Farside Investors

The growing demand-side pressure that could push SOL prices higher when coupled with increased inflows from global Solana investment products and buying by whales.

Cryptocurrencies, Markets, Price Analysis, Tech Analysis, Market Analysis, Altcoin Watch, Solana, ETF
Source: Lookonchain

SOL’s symmetrical triangle breakout targets $110

Data from TradingView shows SOL price breaking above a symmetrical triangle on the six-hour time frame, as shown in the chart below.

The price needs to close above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $86 to sustain the upward momentum.

The measured target of the prevailing pattern, calculated by adding the height of the triangle to the breakout point, is $110, coinciding with the 50-day SMA. This represents a 28.5% rally from the current levels. 

SOL/USD 6-H chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As Cointelegraph reported, a daily candlestick close above the 20-day EMA, currently at $88, would open the way for a rise toward $95 and later to $117. 

Glassnode’s realized price distribution data for Solana shows limited historical buying activity above $85, suggesting that the bulls could easily break this resistance.

In other words, there are relatively few SOL holders with a cost basis above this zone, reducing the chances of sellers stepping in decisively until the price reaches higher supply zones. 

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The next significant resistance sits at $115, where approximately 22 million SOL were previously acquired.

SOL: UTXO realized price distribution (URPD). Source: Glassnode