Crypto World
Strait of Hormuz Closure Threatens Global Oil Markets as Iran Conflict Escalates
Key Takeaways
- Military strikes by the U.S. and Israel resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, sparking concerns about major disruptions to global oil transit routes.
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings against vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage handling 20–26% of worldwide crude shipments and substantial LNG flows.
- Market analysts project Brent crude prices approaching $100 per barrel; extended hostilities may contribute 0.6–0.7 percentage points to worldwide inflation metrics.
- Shipping companies including Frontline and DHT Holdings have experienced substantial gains this year, with charter rates already reaching levels not seen in years.
- Bitcoin declined 2% following the strikes and has shed more than 25% over two months, while traditional safe-haven assets like gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the Swiss franc attract investor capital.
Saturday’s coordinated military operations by Washington and Tel Aviv against Iranian targets claimed the life of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, immediately rippling through global commodity, equity, and cryptocurrency markets.
Following the offensive, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued navigation warnings for the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway serves as the transit corridor for approximately 26% of the world’s crude oil and 23% of global liquefied natural gas shipments.
Brent crude closed Friday’s session near $73 per barrel, having already climbed roughly 20% year-to-date. Market watchers anticipate further price appreciation when trading resumes Sunday evening.
Barclays analysts project Brent could touch $100 per barrel as traders assess potential supply chain interruptions. Capital Economics suggests even a limited confrontation could drive prices toward the $80 threshold.
Iran’s daily production stands at approximately 3.3 to 3.5 million barrels, representing roughly 3% of worldwide output. The nation’s primary export facility at Kharg Island processes nearly 90% of these shipments, and multiple explosions have been documented in that region.
Qatar’s entire LNG export volume, accounting for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade, must also pass through the Strait. No viable alternative shipping lanes exist. A blockade would compel Asian consumers to enter bidding wars with European buyers for available U.S. supply on spot markets.
Goldman Sachs modeling indicates that removing one million barrels daily of Iranian exports for twelve months would elevate prices approximately $8 per barrel. Rystad Energy forecasts price increases between $10 and $15 per barrel should the conflict expand.
Maritime Transport Equities Rally on Rate Forecasts
Shipping sector stocks have already incorporated significant risk premium. Frontline shares have climbed 74% in 2026, DHT Holdings has advanced 60%, and Ardmore Shipping has posted 55% gains. By comparison, the S&P 500 has risen just 0.5% during the identical timeframe.
Frontline disclosed that it secured 92% of its first-quarter VLCC spot capacity at an average daily rate of $107,100. Evercore analyst Jonathan Chappell elevated his price objective on the stock from $31 to $42.
During the 1991 Gulf War, very large crude carrier charter rates surged more than 40%. Throughout the 2003 Iraq invasion, rates climbed as much as 304%.
Cryptocurrency Weakens as Traditional Safe Havens Strengthen
Bitcoin dropped 2% Saturday and has now surrendered more than a quarter of its value across the previous two months. Market analysts indicate it has lost its status as a haven during crisis periods.
Gold has appreciated 22% in 2026 and continues attracting capital inflows. The Swiss franc has strengthened 3% versus the dollar year-to-date. U.S. Treasury yields have been declining in recent trading sessions.
The VIX volatility gauge has increased by one-third this year. Several major oil producers and commodity trading firms have already halted crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Key Takeaways
- Ethereum declined from $2,220 to a session low of $2,025, currently consolidating between $2,020 and $2,100
- Dual bearish trend lines present resistance levels at $2,120 and $2,165 on the hourly chart
- Upside breakout above $2,165 may target $2,200–$2,300; downside breach of $2,025 could accelerate decline toward $2,000
- Weekly net outflows from Ethereum spot ETFs totaled $59.94 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA recording $69.59 million in redemptions
- Cumulative net assets in Ethereum spot ETFs now total $12.33 billion, representing 4.79% of ETH’s market capitalization
Ethereum experienced a significant pullback during the last 24 hours, tumbling from approximately $2,385 down to touch $2,025. Currently, ETH is changing hands below the $2,100 mark and remains beneath its 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
The downward momentum initiated when ETH couldn’t maintain levels above $2,220. Subsequently, the cryptocurrency breached support at $2,150 and $2,120, momentarily dipping beneath $2,050.
Currently, ETH is attempting to stabilize below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the swing high of $2,385 down to the recent low of $2,025. Technical analysis reveals two descending trend lines on the hourly timeframe, establishing resistance zones at $2,120 and $2,165.
The immediate resistance barrier stands at $2,120, which coincides with the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Breaking through this level would bring $2,165 into focus as the subsequent obstacle.
Should Ethereum successfully clear $2,165, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around $2,200 becomes the next target. Momentum beyond this area could potentially drive prices toward $2,250 or even $2,300.
Critical Support Zones Under Watch
Looking at downside scenarios, immediate support is established around $2,040. Beneath this level, $2,025 represents the primary support floor.
A decisive breakdown below $2,025 would shift attention to the psychological $2,000 threshold. Additional selling pressure could expose $1,965, with $1,880 serving as a more substantial support zone.
Market technician Ted Pillows shared his perspective on X, identifying a potential head and shoulders formation in ETH. His analysis stated: “$ETH seems to be forming head and shoulder pattern. If Ethereum loses the $2,040 level, expect a massive dump.”
Institutional Outflows Compound Bearish Sentiment
Ethereum spot ETF products experienced aggregate net outflows of $59.94 million during the trading week spanning March 16 through March 20, based on SoSoValue data shared by PANews on March 23.
BlackRock’s ETHA product dominated outflows, recording $69.59 million in net redemptions during the period. Despite this weekly exodus, ETHA maintains a cumulative historical net inflow of $11.91 billion.
Fidelity’s FETH product experienced $61.62 million in withdrawals throughout the same timeframe. The fund’s lifetime total net inflow remains at $2.32 billion.
The Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH) stood as the sole product registering positive flows last week, attracting $6.87 million in new investments. This brings its cumulative historical net inflow to $1.85 billion.
As of March 23, aggregate net assets across all Ethereum spot ETF products total $12.33 billion, accounting for 4.79% of Ethereum’s overall market capitalization. The combined historical net inflow across the entire ETF ecosystem stands at $11.73 billion.
Crypto World
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Options Trading Unlocked as Final U.S. Exchanges Drop Contract Limits
Key Takeaways
- NYSE Arca and NYSE American eliminated the 25,000-contract restriction on options for 11 cryptocurrency ETFs
- SEC approval came with an expedited implementation timeline, bypassing the typical 30-day review window
- Impacted products include ETFs from BlackRock (IBIT), Fidelity (FBTC), ARK 21Shares, Grayscale, and Bitwise
- Cryptocurrency ETF options now qualify for FLEX trading with customizable contract specifications
- All primary U.S. options trading venues have now eliminated these restrictions
NYSE Arca and NYSE American submitted regulatory amendments to the Securities and Exchange Commission eliminating the 25,000-contract restriction on options contracts linked to 11 Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds. The SEC granted an expedited approval, bypassing the typical 30-day implementation window and allowing immediate effectiveness.
The 25,000-contract restriction was originally implemented in November 2024 during the initial launch of cryptocurrency ETF options trading. Regulators established this threshold as a protective measure aimed at preventing excessive market manipulation and limiting volatility exposure.
The regulatory modifications apply to 11 distinct cryptocurrency ETF offerings. The roster includes BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, Grayscale’s Bitcoin and Ethereum trust products, and Bitwise’s Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds.
Eliminating the restriction aligns cryptocurrency ETF options with existing regulatory treatment of commodity-based ETF derivatives at major trading venues. Options contracts on substantial, highly-liquid ETFs can now achieve position thresholds of 250,000 contracts or higher under conventional exchange protocols.
The amendments additionally authorize these investment vehicles to operate as FLEX options products. FLEX options provide market participants the ability to negotiate bespoke contract specifications, encompassing non-conventional strike prices, maturity dates, and exercise mechanisms.
During IBIT’s inaugural options trading session in November 2024, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas observed the product generated approximately $1.9 billion in notional value despite operating under the contract restriction.
In October 2024, Kbit CEO Ed Tolson commented that the restriction wasn’t excessively limiting considering the $40 billion in Bitcoin open interest spanning futures and perpetual swap markets during that period. However, market participants viewed the limitation as inconsistent with treatment of comparable commodity ETF products.
Coordinated Exchange Transition Reaches Completion
Several trading platforms had previously taken action to eliminate the restriction ahead of NYSE’s decision. Nasdaq ISE and Nasdaq PHLX submitted regulatory filings to remove limitations in January. MIAX pursued identical measures during the same timeframe. MEMX submitted its proposal in February. Cboe filed its corresponding version in March.
With NYSE Arca and NYSE American finalizing their regulatory submissions, every significant U.S. options trading platform has now removed the restriction.
The SEC acknowledged the proposals present no novel regulatory challenges, referencing the identical modifications already operational at competing exchanges.
Institutional Trading Implications
Eliminating the position restriction enables institutional market participants to implement more sophisticated hedging approaches, basis trading strategies, and portfolio overlay frameworks. Availability of FLEX options permits institutions to structure customized contract specifications for complex derivative products.
This operational flexibility existed previously for comparable commodity ETF products such as the SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Silver Trust, but remained unavailable for cryptocurrency ETF options until this development.
In a separate regulatory matter, Nasdaq ISE has submitted a pending proposal to elevate the position threshold exclusively for BlackRock’s IBIT to 1 million contracts. The SEC continues evaluating that submission, which has undergone five amendments to date. The public comment window for both NYSE regulatory filings concludes on April 13.
Bithumb, South Korea’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, is reportedly seeking to reappoint CEO Lee Jae-won despite recent alleged anti-money laundering failures and other controversies, according to the Korea Times.
The exchange will convene its regular shareholders’ meeting on March 31, and a proposal to keep Lee in the top job will be put to shareholders, the Korea Times reported on Sunday, citing industry sources.
His current term expires at the end of the month, and a successful renewal would keep Lee as the exchange’s CEO for another two years. Cointelegraph has contacted Bithumb for comment.
Upbit is the top South Korean crypto exchange by 24-hour trading volume, according to CoinGecko, followed by Bithumb and Korbit.
Regulators hit Bithumb with penalties
In March, South Korea’s Financial Intelligence Unit reportedly issued Bithumb a six-month partial suspension and a 36.8 billion won ($24.2 million) fine over alleged anti-money laundering failures.
Under the measures, the exchange will be banned from processing external crypto transfers for new customers from March 27 to Sept. 26.
The exchange also drew regulatory attention in February when it mistakenly credited 2,000 Bitcoin (BTC) per user instead of 2,000 Korean won ($1.40) during a promotional event, distributing a total of 620,000 coins that it couldn’t back up.
Bithumb is also awaiting the outcome of another probe into its order book sharing with an overseas platform and more penalties could pose a hurdle to license renewals, according to the Korea Times.
“Bithumb will be on edge awaiting the results of ongoing regulatory probes, as the company still needs to renew its virtual asset service provider license,” an industry official told the Korea Times.
Related: South Korea moves to cap crypto exchange shareholder stakes at 20%: Report
South Korean crypto industry is rising
The crypto industry in South Korea has benefited from a friendlier environment after the election of President Lee Jae-myung in June last year, who has pushed forward with various crypto-related laws, including a bill to legalize stablecoins.
Three months earlier, crypto exchange users in South Korea surpassed 16 million, representing more than 30% of the country’s population.
The cryptocurrency market in South Korea is projected to reach $1.3 billion in revenue in 2026, according to online data platform Statista.
Magazine: China’s ‘50x’ blockchain boost, Alibaba-linked AI mines Bitcoin: Asia Express
Key Highlights
- BTC tumbled to approximately $68,652 on Monday, declining 0.7% as escalating Iran conflict drove investors toward safer assets.
- President Trump issued Iran a 48-hour ultimatum regarding the Strait of Hormuz, threatening military action against energy targets.
- Year-to-date, Bitcoin remains down more than 20%, though it has gained roughly 6% over the past 30 days.
- Critical support level identified at $67,250, with potential further declines toward $65,000 or $63,500 if breached.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $95.18 million in net capital between March 16–20, extending a four-week streak of positive inflows.
Bitcoin retreated to $68,652 during Monday’s trading session, registering a 0.7% decline as mounting concerns surrounding the escalating U.S.-Israel confrontation with Iran prompted market participants to exit risk-oriented positions. The downturn continued weekend losses and pushed BTC significantly below its March peak above $72,000.
The market rout was widespread. Equities, precious metals, and foreign exchange markets all experienced declines alongside digital assets as geopolitical anxiety intensified throughout the Middle East region.
President Donald Trump delivered a 48-hour deadline to Iran over the weekend, demanding immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane or facing American military strikes targeting vital energy facilities. Iran countered with warnings of complete strait closure and retaliatory attacks on energy and water systems throughout Gulf states.
The standoff has now stretched into its fourth straight week with no indication of de-escalation.
Technical Outlook for Bitcoin
Bitcoin breached support levels at $71,200 and $70,000 during the session, reaching an intraday low of $67,343 before staging a modest rebound. Currently, BTC trades beneath its 100-hour simple moving average, with a descending trendline establishing resistance near $69,200.
For bulls to regain control, BTC must reclaim $69,200 and establish support above the $70,000 psychological level. Success would open pathways toward resistance zones at $71,650 and $72,800.
Should downward pressure persist, immediate support awaits at $67,250. Additional cushions exist at $66,500 and $65,000. Analysts view $63,500 as a critical support zone that must hold.
Bitcoin’s Performance Against Gold
Despite recent weakness, Bitcoin has outperformed gold on a monthly basis. BTC has appreciated approximately 6% over the past 30 days, whereas gold has retreated nearly 18% from its late-January all-time high, pressured by profit-taking activity.
Gold has notably failed to capture traditional safe-haven flows during the Iran crisis, partly due to investor concerns that prolonged conflict could accelerate global inflation and push interest rates higher.
On a year-to-date basis, however, Bitcoin trails with losses exceeding 20%, while gold trades near breakeven levels.
Alternative cryptocurrencies also posted losses Monday. Ether declined 2.2% to $2,061.77, XRP fell 1.9% to $1.3853, and Dogecoin slipped 1.3%.
According to Wu Blockchain, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs registered combined net inflows totaling $95.18 million during the March 16–20 period, representing the fourth consecutive week of capital additions to these investment vehicles.
Traders on decentralized exchange Hyperliquid are favoring traditional commodities like oil and silver, trading them more aggressively than crypto tokens such as XRP (XRP) and solana (SOL).
Perpetual futures contracts tied to crude oil benchmarks WTI and Brent have recorded a combined trading volume of over $500 million in the past 24 hours. The silver contract alone accounted for more than $412 million in trades.
By trading activity, oil and silver contracts now far outpace SOL and XRP perps, which posted $176 million and $31 million in volume, respectively. For context, both XRP and SOL have multibillion-dollar market caps and rank among the world’s largest cryptocurrencies.
This trend comes as commodities have turned highly volatile amid the ongoing Iran conflict, which has disrupted crude supply through the strategic Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil shipments. It underscores Hyperliquid’s emergence as a go-to platform for price discovery in commodities, especially over weekends when traditional markets are closed.
Brent and WTI crude prices have surged more than 45% this month, the kind of returns typically seen in memecoins. The rally has pushed oil above $100 a barrel, sending inflationary shocks worldwide and drawing renewed attention to commodities as a sector of interest amid heightened geopolitical and market risks.
The uncertainty shows no signs of abating, suggesting Hyperliquid’s energy markets could continue to see heavy activity and potentially challenge bitcoin and ether’s dominance. Perpetual contracts tied to the two tokens still remain the most traded on the exchange, posting 24-hour volumes of $1.94 billion and $990 million, respectively.
Iran said early Monday that the Strait of Hormuz would be “completely closed” immediately if the U.S. follows up on President Donald Trump’s threat to attack its power plants.
The stark warning came after Trump said the U.s. would obliterate Iran’s power plans if Tehran fails to fully allow oil tankers to pass through the Strait within 48 hours.
In the meantime, analysts at investment banking giant Goldman Sachs have lifted their oil price forecasts amid the ongoing supply disruption.
They now see the Brent crude averaging $100 a barrel over March-April, up from a prior forecast of $98, and implying a roughly 62% premium to their full‑year 2025 outlook. The bank also revised its full‑year 2026 Brent average higher to $85 a barrel, while maintaining a robust $80 average for 2027.
A stablecoin is supposed to be worth a dollar. Resolv’s USR is worth 27 cents and the math to fix it doesn’t work.
Resolv Labs confirmed over the weekend that a malicious actor gained unauthorized access to protocol infrastructure through a compromised private key and minted approximately $80 million in uncollateralized USR. The team paused smart contracts and burned roughly 9 million of the illicitly minted tokens, but the damage was already done.
Unlike smart contract bugs that can be patched, key compromises are infrastructure failures that no amount of code auditing can prevent.
This notice is issued on behalf of Resolv Digital Assets Ltd. in relation to the Resolv protocol.
Earlier today, a malicious actor gained unauthorized access to Resolv infrastructure through compromised private key, resulting in the minting of approximately $80M of…
— Resolv Labs (@ResolvLabs) March 22, 2026
Current USR supply consists of 102 million pre-incident tokens plus approximately 71 million illicitly minted tokens that are still circulating. The protocol holds roughly $95 million in assets as of Monday morning, down from $141 million cited in Resolv’s initial statement as redemptions drain what’s left.
Against total liabilities of approximately $173 million in outstanding USR, that’s a collateralization ratio of roughly 55%.
If pre-incident USR holders redeem first, which is what Resolv is facilitating through an allowlist process targeting March 23, the $95 million in assets gets absorbed by the 102 million in legitimate USR. That’s roughly 93 cents on the dollar for those who get through the door.
USR is trading at $0.27 on CoinGecko, down 72% over the past week and 61% in the past 24 hours alone. The 24-hour range stretched from $0.14 to $0.82, reflecting chaotic trading as the market tried to price in the exploit’s severity. Daily volume hit $8.4 million against a market cap of just $54 million, meaning a significant chunk of the remaining supply changed hands in a single day.
DeFiLlama data shows Resolv’s TVL peaked near $684 million in February 2025 before declining through the year to around $95 million pre-exploit. The protocol had raised $10 million in funding and was generating roughly $5.28 million in annualized fees. That revenue stream is now effectively dead.
Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet said in an X post that the exploit “will create bad debt on some lending markets, particularly in specific pools,” flagging that some Morpho pools using USR as collateral had already been exited.
Resolv Labs was exploited. $50M worth of USR was minted without collateral.
It lost its peg and is now trading around ~$0.5, with lows below $0.2.
This will create bad debt on some lending markets, particularly in specific pools.
Some Morpho pools using USR as collateral have… https://t.co/uo69WEd9IE— Charles Guillemet (@P3b7_) March 22, 2026
Resolv said the underlying collateral was not directly compromised and that the attack came through “unauthorized third-party actions, including a targeted infrastructure compromise and cyberattack.” The team said it was working with law enforcement and onchain analytics firms and would “pursue all available avenues to recover assets.”
The protocol strongly advised against trading USR or related Resolv tokens while recovery measures are being implemented, adding that “actions of users during post-exploit period may affect the recovery,” a line that suggests trading could complicate any future claims process.
Decentralized, blockchain-based messaging and social media apps saw a surge of interest over the last year amid civil unrest and communication blackouts in the Middle East, Asia and Africa.
Search interest in decentralized social media has grown 145% over the last five years, according to Exploding Topics, while decentralized peer-to-peer messaging service Bitchat saw a spike in downloads during protests in Madagascar, Uganda, Nepal, Indonesia and Iran in recent months.
“I think people are starting to trust open protocols more than they trust closed companies,” Shane Mac, the CEO of XMTP Labs, told Cointelegraph in a recent interview.
XMTP Labs is a startup focused on building decentralized communication technology. Mac said that unrest around the world is pushing people to explore decentralized messaging options and think more about privacy.
WhatsApp, the messaging app owned by social media giant Meta, said in February that Russia had moved forward with its block on the app, making it inaccessible without a VPN or similar workaround.
“The last 15 years have been centralized, and the next 15 are going to decentralize. When you see an entire country shut down single apps, it tells you that there has to be a new foundation that we need to go build on,” added Mac.
“Open source is having a moment. Open protocols, open financial systems, open communication protocols, open identity standards. It’s going to be a really cool next era of the internet as decentralization and open standards come back.”
No single point of failure
Mac said decentralized networks can provide a safe harbor during turmoil as they’re typically harder to shut down without a single point of failure.
Decentralized platforms are generally hosted across networks spanning multiple countries, with servers managed by their participants.
In comparison, centralized options run on a single collection of servers controlled by one entity or company, which can be blocked and taken offline more easily.
He added that the technology is only getting better as developers and users push the boundaries.
“Someone took the open source Bitchat client and put the XMTP network inside of it, because they were getting their app shut down in their country. The connection of mesh networks and decentralized networks meant the app is no longer the single point of failure,” Mac said.
Decentralized messengers won’t replace the old guard
Market researcher 360 Research Reports predicted in a March 2 report that the blockchain messaging market will grow significantly over the next few years, with main drivers such as global demand for enhanced privacy and security in communication fueling the growth.
However, despite rising user interest, Mac said centralized platforms will likely remain popular and operate alongside decentralized alternatives. Developers will need to step up and keep innovating to sustain that momentum.
Exploding Topics found that social media users now spread their time across an average of 6.75 social media platforms per month.
Related: Telegram’s Durov: We’re ‘running out of time to save the free internet’
“I don’t think it will end up killing things; you built a new platform. SMS and email didn’t die to build encrypted messaging; I don’t know if they go away,” Mac said, referring to centralized messengers.
Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?
Crypto and broader markets faced renewed volatility as tensions between the United States and Iran intensified, sending oil prices fluctuating and risk appetite shifting. The week’s escalation comes amid a backdrop of macro uncertainty and a fragile risk-off mood that has influenced how traders view Bitcoin and other digital assets.
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. would “hit and obliterate” Iranian power plants if Tehran did not open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, a warning that drew immediate responses from Iran about retaliation against U.S. and Israeli targets in the Gulf and potential closure of the strategic chokepoint. The standoff has kept investors on edge as markets weigh potential disruptions to energy flows and the global geopolitical risk premium.
Bitcoin slipped 1.8% over the past 24 hours to around $68,160 after earlier dipping below $67,600, with a notable surge in liquidations across the crypto space. Data from CoinGlass showed about $336.3 million in liquidations in the last day, driven in part by a large chunk of the activity—roughly $100 million—stemming from failed Bitcoin long bets. The move underscores how crypto markets are currently behaving in tandem with broader risk-off dynamics rather than acting as a pure safe haven.
Analysts have observed that crypto prices have been correlated with equities as geopolitical risk and macro cues influence investor behavior. “Crypto is trading in lockstep with equities right now, not as a haven, and sentiment is sitting at historic lows, with the Fear and Greed Index deep in ‘extreme fear’ territory at 8,” said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at the crypto exchange BTC Markets.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin fell about 1.8% in 24 hours to roughly $68,160, with a low near $67,600, as risk assets reeled from intensifying US-Iran tensions.
- Crypto liquidations totaled $336.3 million in the last day, with roughly $100 million attributed to failed Bitcoin long bets, per CoinGlass.
- Oil markets reacted sharply: crude briefly topped $100, Brent crude surged to above $113, then settled under that level, while the Fed’s rate-hike expectations rose to around 12.4% probability in a week, signaling a macro repricing that crypto will track.
- Despite the near-term volatility, institutional interest remains evident, with about $1.43 billion in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs observed this month, suggesting ongoing structural demand alongside a fragile sentiment backdrop.
- Key price levels to watch for Bitcoin: immediate support around $68,000, with $65,800 as the next line of defense if that gives way; a recovery narrative would gain traction if Bitcoin can reclaim around $71,500.
Geopolitics, macro signals, and the crypto response
Beyond the immediate price moves, the market backdrop is colored by a complex mix of geopolitical risk and macroeconomic signals. The Trump administration’s warning and Iran’s stated readiness to retaliate against U.S. and Israeli targets in the Gulf have kept the Strait of Hormuz—a vital oil artery—perceived as a potential flashpoint. While the oil reaction has been volatile, with futures briefly spiking above $100 per barrel before stabilizing, the broader implication is a potential acceleration of inflation expectations if energy costs remain elevated. In turn, investors have priced in higher probabilities of a Federal Reserve response, with futures indicating a non-negligible chance of a rate increase in the near term.
Lucas highlighted that Brent’s move is feeding inflation expectations and that the probability of a Fed rate hike has jumped in a short period, a dynamic that could ripple through crypto markets as investors reassess risk and liquidity. “That is a significant macro repricing that crypto will continue to reflect until there is clarity on both fronts,” she said.
Market structure and the recovery path
The latest price action adds another chapter to the ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s role in a world characterized by macro shocks and geopolitical risk. While the selloff underscores a current lack of broad risk appetite, it also spotlights robust institutional infrastructure. According to BTC Markets’ analyst, even with volatility, there remains substantial institutional exposure to Bitcoin through vehicles like ETFs, which have seen meaningful inflows this month.
For traders, the immediate technical watchpoints are crucial: Bitcoin’s near-term floor sits around $68,000, with a more meaningful support at about $65,800 if that zone yields. On the upside, reclaiming the $71,500 level would likely mark a transition back toward a recovery narrative, though timing remains uncertain as global risk factors evolve.
As the market awaits clearer signals on de-escalation in the Middle East and a more defined path for U.S. monetary policy, investors will be watching both macro prompts and on-chain behavior. The near-term linkage between oil swings, equity markets, and crypto suggests that any sustained improvement will likely require a combination of reduced geopolitical risk and a stable, gradual normalization in macro expectations.
The latest data also suggests sustaining traction from the institutional side could help underpin a more resilient price trajectory. With $1.43 billion of net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs observed this month, the groundwork for a more constructive environment remains in place even as volatility persists.
Oil and macro developments aside, the crypto market’s sensitivity to sentiment means traders should stay vigilant for abrupt shifts in risk appetite, liquidity conditions, and policy signals. The next few sessions could prove pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin can stabilize above key support levels or if fresh downside pressure emerges as investors weigh the evolving risk landscape.
Readers should watch for any signs of de-escalation in the US-Iran standoff and for upcoming macro updates from the Federal Reserve, which could further influence the path of Bitcoin and the broader crypto markets in the near term.
Crypto World
Stocks start catching up with bitcoin’s earlier meltdown to $60,000 as bond yields rise
Bitcoin began the year on a painful note, even as equity markets remained buoyant. But stock traders’ luck is now running out, as rising bond yields pressure valuations.
Prices for bitcoin plunged to nearly $60,000 from around $90,000 in the first five weeks of the year, according to CoinDesk data. The decline marked a sharp decoupling from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which were trading at or near record highs at the time.
Analysts wondered how long the divergence would last — whether bitcoin would quickly bounce back or stocks would eventually catch up with the weakness in bitcoin.
The latter appears to be happening. Since the Iran war began on Feb. 28, fears over inflation and fading Fed rate-cut expectations have pushed U.S. Treasury yields sharply higher, putting pressure on equities.
The stock market’s weakness, appearing weeks after BTC’s decline, underscores the cryptocurrency’s role as a leading indicator for traditional risk assets. Traders in conventional markets often watch BTC to gauge overall risk sentiment, particularly on weekends or during days when traditional exchanges are closed.
Yields rise, stocks drop
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.41% soon before press time, the highest since Aug. 1. The benchmark borrowing cost has risen by 48 basis points since the onset of the Iran war. The U.S. two-year yield has jumped 57 basis points to 3.94%.
Treasury yields are considered the benchmark for risk-free interest rates and borrowing costs in the economy, such as corporate bonds, mortgages, student loans, etc., are priced relative to Treasuries. So, when yields rise, lenders typically increase rates on loans to maintain their spreads, which pushes borrowing costs higher for businesses and consumers. This leads to risk aversion in equities, which we are beginning to see now.
Futures tied to Wall Street’s tech heavy index Nasdaq fell to 23,890 points early Monday, the lowest since Sept. 11. The S&P 500 e-mini futures fell to 6,505 points, also the lowest since September.
CoinDesk recently highlighted that the price patterns of major stock indices bear a striking resemblance to bitcoin’s price action leading up to its crash. This similarity has raised concerns among analysts, suggesting that stocks could be at risk of further declines if the pattern continues to play out.
“Bitcoin has been at the top of the risk-assets iceberg, and its collapsing price could be early days of a broader drawdown — particularly if surging commodity volatility trickles up to stocks,” Bloomberg’s Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone said in a recent report.
Bitcoin steady
Having crashed early this year, BTC has held largely steady between $65,000 and $75,000 in recent weeks. As of writing, the cryptocurrency changed hands at $68,790.
Yet, pricing in options market shows peak fear, resulting in a record bias for put options, or derivative contracts offering protection from price slides in BTC.
Meta CEO and co-founder Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly building an AI agent to help handle his work in managing the company amid a company-wide push for employees to adopt agentic tech.
According to a report from The Wall Street Journal on Sunday, citing sources close to the matter, Zuckerberg’s AI agent is still in development but already being used to help the CEO speed up information retrieval.
Instead of going through multiple layers of people or teams to get the required information, the agent has been retrieving the information directly.
The move is part of a broader goal within the company to accelerate employee productivity and reduce layers of friction within its 78,000-strong employee base. The report adds that Meta is pushing to compete with AI-native startups that have much smaller teams.
Zuckerberg has previously alluded to this push, noting in an earnings call in late January that 2026 is going to be the year that “AI starts to dramatically change the way” Meta works, while also indicating there may be changes to the firm’s organizational structure moving forward.
“As we navigate this, our north star is building the best place for individuals to make a massive impact. So to do this, we’re investing in AI-native tooling so individuals at Meta can get more done, we’re elevating individual contributors, and flattening teams.”
The WSJ report highlights that Meta employees have been utilizing agentic tools such as MyClaw, which has been giving them access to work files and chat logs, while also enabling them to talk with colleagues or their AI agent counterparts.
Meta employees have also been said to be using Second Brain, another AI tool built on top of Anthropic’s Claude infrastructure to help speed up work on projects, which has been described internally as something akin to an “AI chief of staff,” according to the sources.
Meta could be eyeing mass layoffs
A recent report from Reuters claimed that the firm may be finalizing plans for another wave of layoffs to offset its expenditures and capitalize on AI efficiency gains.
In an article on March 14, Reuters cited three sources familiar with the matter who claimed that Meta could be planning layoffs that may impact up to 20% of the company.
The sources claimed that no date has been set yet and that the scale of the layoffs hasn’t been finalized.
Related: Meta to shutter Horizon Worlds metaverse on VR in favor of mobile
In a statement to Cointelegraph, Meta declined to comment on the WSJ article; however, a spokesperson responded to the Reuters reporting by saying that it was a “speculative report about theoretical approaches.”
The crypto sector has been hit by a wave of layoffs in 2026, with several firms outlining a renewed focus on AI.
Last week, blockchain data provider Messari announced a shuffling of executives and employee layoffs to make way for the company’s “next phase” of becoming an AI-first company.
Meanwhile, exchange Crypto.com also announced a 12% reduction in its workforce amid its own AI push.
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