ET Intelligence Group: Pharmaceuticals and healthcare companies are set for a mixed March-quarter. Hospital chains are expected to deliver steady growth while generic drugmakers face pressure from the absence of Revlimid-related sales and pricing headwinds. Lupin is expected to deliver strong growth in revenue, margin and profit, while Divi’s is likely to benefit from improving contract development demand and operating leverage. Sun Pharma and Torrent are expected to post steady growth led by diversified portfolios and domestic strength, while Apollo Hospitals may see resilient traction across hospitals, pharmacy and diagnostics.

Sun Pharma is expected to benefit from strong momentum in India and Europe with incremental improvement in the US led by specialty products. New launches and a higher specialty contribution are expected to support growth while margins face sequential pressure from higher research and development (R&D) spends.

Aurobindo Pharma is likely to report single-digit revenue growth supported by steady performance across regions other than the US where sales are likely to fall by 10% due to slack in gRevlimid sales. Europe may grow in double-digits driven by higher biosimilars sales. The operating profit before depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) is expected to remain flat while Ebitda margin may decline by 80-100 basis-points (bps). Key monitorables include ramp-up at the 6-APA plant and resolution of USFDA observations at Eugia facilities.

Dr Reddy’s will be another company to be affected by reduced business of gRevlimid following patent expiry and one-time impact of shelf stock adjustments. Its India business is likely to fare better, supported by strong traction in pain, respiratory and gastro segments. Ebitda could decline 28-30% with around 600 bps of margin contraction. Key monitorables include semaglutide progress in Canadian market and brand litigation with Novo Nordisk for semaglutide products in India.

Lupin’s US revenue is expected to be strong driven by traction in Tolvaptan, Mirabegron, g-Spiriva and Glucagon, partly offset by Albuterol pricing pressure. Domestic sales are likely to grow in double-digits, driven by higher focus on chronic therapies, while emerging markets are expected to drive growth. Ebitda is projected to jump around 50% year-on-year. The margin may decline sequentially due to higher R&D spends, elevated marketing costs and absence of PLI income.

Cipla‘s sales are expected to decline as the US market faces higher competition in g-Revlimid business and lower Lanreotide sales following supply disruptions. Its India business is expected to be driven by respiratory and anti-diabetic therapies, offset by subdued performance in pain. Ebitda is expected to fall 32-38% with margins contracting by 700-800 bps, reflecting lower US contribution and pressure on gross margins.
Apollo Hospitals revenue growth to be supported by steady performance across segments. The hospitals segment sales growth could be in double-digits, aided by new bed additions and increase in average revenue per patient. HealthCo revenue is projected to grow in high double-digits, driven by strong offline pharmacy sales, while the Ebitda loss of Apollo 24/7 may narrow. Consolidated Ebitda is expected to rise in double-digits with margin likely to grow by 50 bps. Torrent Pharma’s revenue is likely to rise in high double-digits, led by consolidation of JB Pharma from January 2026 and steady organic growth. Divi’s Laboratories revenue is expected to grow in double-digits on a year-on-year and sequential basis, driven by strong momentum in custom synthesis (CS) and a low-base nutraceuticals recovery. However, generic API sales are likely to decline year-on-year, despite a sequential rebound, reflecting pricing pressure.

NEW YORK — Investors weighing whether to buy or sell Palantir Technologies stock in 2026 face a classic growth-versus-valuation debate as the data analytics powerhouse, trading near $144, heads into its first-quarter earnings report Monday with strong commercial AI momentum but a premium multiple that has some analysts urging caution. Wall Street’s consensus leans Moderate Buy, with an average 12-month price target around $192 implying roughly 33 percent upside, though skeptics highlight risks from competition and stretched valuations.

Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) continues driving accelerating commercial revenue, with analysts projecting Q1 revenue of approximately $1.53-1.54 billion, up about 74 percent year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share are expected near $0.28, more than doubling from the prior year. The company has consistently beaten expectations, fueling optimism about its position in enterprise AI deployment.

Recent analyst actions reflect divided but generally positive sentiment. Citi set a Street-high target of $260 before trimming slightly to $210, while Oppenheimer initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and $200 target. UBS and Daiwa upgraded to Buy with $180 targets earlier in the year. However, HSBC downgraded to Hold citing emerging competition, and some voices warn of potential post-earnings volatility if guidance fails to excite.

The bull case centers on Palantir’s expanding commercial footprint and sticky government contracts. U.S. commercial revenue is forecasted to surge more than 100 percent in some projections, with the company adding high-profile clients and demonstrating strong bookings. Proponents argue that Palantir’s platform is becoming essential infrastructure for AI adoption, justifying premium multiples as revenue scales and margins expand.

Valuation remains the primary bear-case concern. Palantir trades at forward price-to-sales multiples above 40x and price-to-earnings exceeding 200x in some estimates. Critics note that even impressive growth may not sustain such levels if broader AI hype cools or if competitors offer similar capabilities at lower prices. A deeper pullback could test support near $100-$110 if earnings disappoint.

For long-term investors, Palantir represents exposure to secular AI tailwinds. The company’s dual commercial and government business provides diversification, while its focus on agentic AI and data integration differentiates it from pure-play software firms. Analysts forecasting 2026 year-end prices often see shares between $175 and $230, with optimistic models reaching higher on sustained 50-60 percent growth.

Short-term traders should monitor Monday’s report closely. Strong commercial metrics and raised full-year guidance could spark a rally, while any softening in deal velocity might trigger profit-taking. Implied volatility suggests potential double-digit moves post-earnings.

Portfolio fit matters. Growth-oriented investors comfortable with volatility may view current levels as an entry point into a multi-year AI winner. Value-focused or conservative accounts might wait for a better entry or allocate smaller positions. The stock’s beta indicates sensitivity to broader tech sentiment and macroeconomic shifts.

Palantir has evolved from a primarily government contractor to a diversified AI software leader. Its boot camp sales approach and platform stickiness have driven accelerating growth, but execution risks remain as the company scales rapidly. Management’s track record of under-promising and over-delivering provides some buffer.

Broader market context influences the outlook. With interest rates and AI spending trends in focus, Palantir benefits from corporate digitization but could face headwinds in a slowdown. Geopolitical factors may support government revenue, while commercial expansion depends on economic health.

Analyst dispersion is wide, with targets ranging from $50 to $255. The Moderate Buy consensus reflects confidence in fundamentals tempered by valuation discipline. Long-term forecasts for 2026 year-end prices cluster in the $190-$220 range under base-case scenarios.

Ultimately, buying Palantir in 2026 suits those believing in its AI platform’s durable competitive moat and growth runway. Selling or avoiding appeals to those prioritizing valuation or fearing competition. Holding through volatility has rewarded patient investors historically, but new positions warrant careful sizing given the premium pricing.

As earnings loom, the market will render its verdict on Palantir’s trajectory. The company’s ability to deliver commercial acceleration while maintaining discipline will shape investor conviction for the remainder of 2026 and beyond. For now, the data points to continued upside potential for believers in its long-term vision.

Short covering drove April’s rally across the broader market and in several stocks. While May may not see gains of a similar scale, stock specific action is expected to persist. Here are analysts’ top derivatives picks for the month.

BULLISH BETS

SUN PHARMACEUTICAL
Change in Open Interest in May Series: – 3.3% Change in price in May Series: 1.7% RATIONALE: The stock is up nearly 12% in the past week after announcing the acquisition of Organon. The stock is showing early signs of a potential trend reversal after a lengthy consolidation beneath a declining resistance trendline around Rs 1,850–1,880, said Ajit Mishra, senior vice president, research, at Religare Broking. Mishra suggests buying for a target of Rs 1,960 with a stop-loss at Rs 1,740.

ADANI PORTS AND SEZ
Change in Open Interest in May Series: 2.64% Change in price in May Series: 1.10%
RATIONALE: The stock has broken out of a trading range that had held for over two years on the weekly charts, said Vipin Kumar, AVP – derivatives and technical research at Globe Capital Markets. “This breakout was well supported by a combination of long build-up and short covering over the past couple of trading sessions,” he said. Kumar suggests buying May futures in the Rs 1,640–1,620 range for a target of Rs 1,750– 1,800, with a stop-loss at Rs 1,550.OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORPORATION (ONGC)
Change in Open Interest in May Series: 0.9% Change in price in May Series: -1.8%

RATIONALE: Shares of ONGC made a fresh 52-week high last week amid rising Brent crude prices due to the West Asia conflict. The stock has recently seen a positive price-volume breakout at the Rs 292 level, said Akshay Bhagwat, senior vice president, derivatives research, at JM Financial Services.

“The last couple of days of profit booking are offering a lucrative trade setup to rebuild long bets,” he said. Bhagwat suggests buying May futures at Rs 301–297 for a target of Rs 318–329, with a stop-loss at Rs 287.

SONA BLW PRECISION FORGINGS
Change in Open Interest in May Series: -1.13% Change in price in May Series: 1.07%

RATIONALE: Sona shares hit a 52-week high on Thursday, breaching their hurdle of the Rs 550–560 zone. “In the current series, like in April, it is showing a positive reaction, and hence a throwback towards the Rs 585–575 zone is likely to provide a favourable entry point, with Rs 540 as a strict risk management level,” said Amit Trivedi, SVP, Institutional Equities Research at Yes Securities. His target on the stock is Rs 660.

BHARTI AIRTEL
Change in Open Interest in May Series: -2.27% Change in price in May Series: 0.33%

RATIONALE: Bharti Airtel broke out of a two-month range on Thursday after profi ttaking from record highs had tested its earlier breakout zone, said Kumar of Globe Capital Markets. “We suggest adding long positions in Bharti Airtel within the Rs 1,870–1,840 range, with a stop-loss below Rs 1,750, for a price target of Rs 2,000–2,100,” he said.

ITC
Change in Open Interest in May Series: -1.4% Change in price in May Series: -1.75%

RATIONALE: Technical momentum indicators hint at a reversal after a shortterm bottoming pattern at `300, said JM’s Bhagwat. He suggests buying ITC May futures at Rs 310–315 for a target of Rs 327–334, with a stop-loss at Rs 299.

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK
Change in Open Interest in May Series: 3.35% Change in price in May Series: 1.46%

RATIONALE: The stock saw a rise in open interest ahead of its fourth-quarter results this week, along with a price rise, signalling bullishness. Higher rollovers and bullish build-up point to strength, with a move above Rs 385 needed to revive momentum towards Rs 420, said Trivedi of Yes Securities. He added that Rs 360 remains key support.

BEARISH BETS
TATA MOTORS PASSENGER VEHICLES
Change in Open Interest in May Series: 5.1% Change in price in May Series: -3.2%

RATIONALE: The 5.1% increase in its futures open interest, coupled with a 3.2% decline in the stock price, points to fresh bearish build-up, signalling continued negative sentiment. “Recent rebounds have been short-lived, failing to sustain above resistance zones. The broader structure continues to weaken. The current bounce appears corrective rather than a reversal, unless the stock reclaims the Rs 370–380 zone convincingly,” said Mishra, who expects the stock to fall to Rs 320, with stop loss at Rs 355.

Kotak Mahindra Bank delivered a strong set of Q4 results, with multiple positives across key metrics. Margins expanded unexpectedly, credit costs declined, and most operating line items showed a positive bias. As ET Now noted, the numbers were “extremely strong,” with “margin increase” and “credit costs” both surprising on the upside. The bigger question now is whether this level of performance can be sustained and whether valuations still offer comfort.

According to analyst Dnyanada Vaidya from Axis Securities, the standout elements of the quarter were margin expansion and improving asset quality. She noted that while net interest income was broadly in line, the “13 basis points increase in margins” came as a positive surprise.

More importantly, stress in unsecured segments such as microfinance, personal loans, and credit cards has started to ease, while the secured book remains stable. This has led to lower fresh stress formation and a favourable outlook on credit costs, expected to remain around “70 basis points plus or minus five.”

However, the management’s commentary on margins going ahead has introduced some caution. ET Now highlighted that net interest margins could remain “flattish or even slightly below,” largely due to higher term deposit rates. Vaidya acknowledged this as a “slight negative surprise,” adding that rising deposit costs will weigh on margins. That said, she believes the impact could be partly offset by growth in unsecured lending and a continued push towards CASA deposits. She also pointed out that deposit competition remains intense across the banking system, as credit growth continues to outpace deposit growth.

On the corporate lending side, Kotak has seen relatively slower growth compared to peers. ET Now observed that the corporate book is expanding at a “very slower rate,” reflecting the bank’s conservative stance. Vaidya explained that the bank has prioritised “profitable growth” and avoided segments where the risk-reward equation was not favourable. This approach has supported margins so far. Going forward, she expects some pickup, with corporate, SME, and secured lending likely to drive growth, while expansion in unsecured lending will remain measured.

Another factor that had been weighing on sentiment was the potential acquisition of IDBI Bank. ET Now pointed to Kotak’s openness to inorganic growth “at the right price.” Vaidya clarified that the bank remains cautious and that the IDBI deal is “not on the cards right now.” This, she said, removes an overhang and is positive for valuations. She added that Kotak continues to deliver a strong return profile, with “2 plus percent ROA,” second only to ICICI Bank among large peers.
The key debate now revolves around the sustainability of returns. ET Now questioned whether a “2% plus ROA” can be maintained, especially with softer margins and previously low credit costs. Vaidya believes it is achievable, supported by three factors. First, operating leverage should improve, helping reduce the cost-to-asset ratio. Second, fee income—particularly from cards—has been weak but is expected to recover as the bank pushes growth in that segment. Third, credit costs, which were elevated earlier, have stabilised and should remain steady.She concluded that while margins may soften, these levers should help offset the pressure, allowing Kotak to sustain a return on assets in the range of “2% to 2.1%” over the next couple of years.

Kotak Mahindra Bank’s Q4 performance reflects strong execution, especially on margins and asset quality. While headwinds from deposit costs and competitive intensity persist, stable credit trends and operating improvements could help the bank maintain healthy profitability levels.