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Strategy slides after bitcoin briefly dips below crypto firm’s key breakeven level

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Strategy slides after bitcoin briefly dips below crypto firm's key breakeven level

Michael Saylor, chairman of MicroStrategy, speaks at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, on July 26, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Strategy plunged 8% on Monday after bitcoin dipped below the cryptocurrency treasury company’s average purchase price per token.  

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Bitcoin traded at about $74,500 at its bottom on Monday – its lowest price since last April.

That’s slightly below Strategy’s average purchase price of $76,052 per bitcoin, according to its regulatory filing dated Feb. 2, raising concerns that the Michael Saylor-led firm could be underwater if the digital currency continues to slide. The company holds roughly $56 billion in bitcoin, its website shows.

The pullback in shares comes as bitcoin has shed 11% over the past five days, largely due to mounting geopolitical concerns and expectations of a monetary policy shift in the U.S. 

Last week, investors rotated out of risk-on assets across global markets, including cryptocurrencies, as tensions flared between President Donald Trump and European leaders over the U.S.’ Greenland gambit. On Friday, President Trump endorsed Kevin Warsh as his pick for Federal Reserve chair, leading investors to assume even more cautious positions. 

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A series of forced liquidations also amplified bitcoin’s plunge. More than $2 billion of long and short positions linked to the asset have been liquidated since Thursday, Coinglass data shows.

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Crypto World

Polymarket Grabs 97% of Onchain Prediction Market Fees After Overhaul

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Fees, DeFi, Trading, Polymarket, Prediction Markets

Polymarket has become one of decentralized finance’s most profitable protocols after a pricing overhaul, generating about $7.1 million in fees in the first week of the second quarter, according to new data.

That pace implies an annualized run rate of roughly $365 million if sustained, placing the onchain prediction platform among the industry’s top fee generators and giving it nearly all of the sector’s revenue, at 96.8% of onchain prediction market fees.

The gains follow a March 30 pricing change that pushed daily fees to around $1 million, a level that has largely held as trading activity remains elevated, data from DeFiLlama shows, and make Polymarket the eighth-largest DeFi protocol by fees, along with stablecoin issuers Circle (USDC) and Tether (USDT) and decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid.

Onchain metrics also show Polymarket’s footprint beyond fees. Total value locked on the platform was over $432 million on Tuesday, according to DeFiLlama data, close to its November 2024 US election high of around $510 million, as its share of onchain prediction market revenue rises.

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Fees, DeFi, Trading, Polymarket, Prediction Markets
Fees market share. Source: Dune

ICE backs Polymarket, but regulation uncertainty remains

Polymarket’s fee engine has started to attract more mainstream partners. Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, deepened its bet on Polymarket on March 27, completing a $600 million cash investment as part of a broader $2 billion commitment that will see ICE distribute the platform’s event-driven data to institutional clients. 

Related: Iran war bets turn prediction markets into real-time macro radar: Sygnum

At the infrastructure level, Polymarket announced Monday that it is replacing its bridged USDC.e collateral on Polygon with a new 1:1 USDC-backed token called Polymarket USD, which will take over as trading collateral as part of the platform’s April exchange upgrade, as it continues to spin up highly-traded markets on the US-Iran conflict, oil, inflation and equities indices.

Despite its growing revenue, regulation remains a risk. Prediction markets continue to face pushback from some US states and gambling regulators elsewhere, including recent moves by Hungary and Portugal to order local blocking, and Argentina issuing a countrywide block on Polymarket, arguing that the platform operates as an unlicensed gambling site.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation — Santiment founder

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