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Tech IPO hype drowned out by prospect of $1 trillion in debt sales

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Rising capex spend is increasing risk for Mag 7, says analyst

Magnificent 7 tech stocks on display at the Nasdaq.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

While the prospect of a SpaceX initial public offering and the hopeful listings from OpenAI and Anthropic have juiced IPO excitement on Wall Street, the current action in tech capital markets has nothing to do with equity. Rather, it’s all about debt.

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Tech’s four hyperscalers — Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft — are collectively projected to shell out close to $700 billion this year on capital expenditures and finance leases to fuel their artificial intelligence buildouts, responding to what they call historic levels of demand for computing resources.

To finance those investments, industry giants may have to dip into some of the cash they’ve built up in recent years. But they’re also looking to raise mounds of debt, adding to concerns about an AI bubble and fears about a market contagion if cash-burning startups like OpenAI and Anthropic hit a growth wall and pull back on their infrastructure spending.

In a report late last month, UBS estimated that after tech and AI-related debt issuance across the globe more than doubled to $710 billion last year, that number could soar to $990 billion in 2026. Morgan Stanley foresees a $1.5 trillion financing gap for the AI buildout that will likely be filled in large part by credit as companies can no longer self-fund their capex.

Chris White, CEO of data and research firm BondCliQ, says the corporate debt market has experienced a “monumental” increase in size, amounting to “massive supply now in the debt markets.”

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The biggest corporate debt sales this year have come from Oracle and Alphabet.

Oracle said in early February that it planned to raise $45 billion to $50 billion this year to build additional AI capacity. It quickly sold $25 billion of dollars worth of debt in the high-grade market. Alphabet followed this week, upping the size of a bond offering to over $30 billion, after holding a prior $25 billion debt sale in November.

Other companies are letting investors know that they could come knocking.

Amazon filed a mixed shelf registration last week, disclosing that it may seek to raise a combination of debt and equity. On Meta’s earnings call, CFO Susan Li said the company will look for opportunities to supplement its cash flow “with prudent amounts of cost-efficient external financing, which may lead us to eventually maintain a positive net debt balance.”

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And as Tesla bolsters its infrastructure, the electric vehicle maker may look to outside funding, “whether it’s through more debt or other means,” CFO Vaibhav Taneja said following fourth-quarter earnings.

Rising capex spend is increasing risk for Mag 7, says analyst

With some of the world’s most valuable companies adding to their debt loads by the tens of billions, Wall Street firms are plenty busy as they await movement on the IPO front. There haven’t been any IPO filings from notable U.S. tech companies this year, and the attention is focused on what Elon Musk will do with SpaceX after he merged the rocket maker with AI startup xAI last week, forming a company that he says is worth $1.25 trillion.

Reports have suggested SpaceX will aim to go public in mid-2026, while investor Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki, told CNBC he doesn’t think Musk will take SpaceX public as a standalone entity, and will instead merge it with Tesla.

As for OpenAI and Anthropic — competing AI labs that are both valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars — reports have surfaced about eventual plans for public debuts, but no timelines have been set. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent note that they expect 120 IPOs this year, raising $160 billion, up from 61 deals last year.

‘Not that appetizing’

Class V Group’s Lise Buyer, who advises pre-IPO companies, isn’t seeing bustling activity within tech. The volatility in the public markets, particularly around software and its AI-related vulnerabilities, along with geopolitical concerns and soft employment numbers are some of the factors keeping venture-backed startups on the sidelines, she said.

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“It’s not that appetizing out there right now,” Buyer said in an interview. “Things are better than they’ve been the last three years, but an overabundance of IPOs is unlikely to be a problem this year.”

That’s unwelcome news for venture capitalists, who have been waiting for an IPO resurgence since the market shut down in 2022 as inflation soared and interest rates rose. Certain venture firms, hedge funds and strategic investors have generated handsome profits from large acquisitions, including those disguised as acquihires and licensing deals, but startup investors historically need a healthy IPO market to keep their limited partners happy and willing to write additional checks.

There were 31 tech IPOs in the U.S. last year, more than the three years prior combined, though far below the 121 deals completed in 2021, according to data compiled by University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter, who has long tracked the IPO market.

Greg Abbott, governor of Texas, left, and Sundar Pichai, chief executive officer of Alphabet Inc., during a media event at the Google Midlothian Data Center in Midlothian, Texas, US, on Friday, Nov. 14, 2025.

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Jonathan Johnson | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Alphabet has shown that the debt market is extremely receptive to its fundraising efforts, for now at least. The bonds have varying maturity dates, with the first debt coming due in three years. Yields are narrowly higher than for the 3-year Treasury, meaning investors aren’t getting rewarded for risk.

In its U.S. bond sale, Alphabet priced its 2029 notes at a 3.7% yield and its 2031 notes at 4.1%.

John Lloyd, global head of multi-sector credit at Janus Henderson Investors, said spreads are historically tight across the investment grade landscape, which makes it a tough investment.

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“We’re not worried about ratings downgrades, not worried about fundamentals of the companies,” Lloyd said. But in looking at potential for returns, Lloyd said he prefers higher-yield debt from some of the so-called neoclouds and the converted bitcoin miners that are now focused on AI.

After raising $20 billion in debt in the U.S., Alphabet immediately turned to Europe for roughly $11 billion of additional capital. A credit analyst told CNBC that Alphabet’s success overseas could convince other hyperscalers to follow, as it shows demand goes well beyond Wall Street.

Concentration risk?

With so much debt coming from a small number of companies, corporate bond indexes are faced with a similar issue as stock benchmarks: too much tech.

Roughly one-third of the S&P 500’s value now comes from tech’s trillion-dollar club, which includes Nvidia and the hyperscalers. Lloyd said tech is now about 9% of investment grade corporate debt indexes, and he sees that number reaching the mid to high teens.

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Dave Harrison Smith, chief investment officer at Bailard, described that level of concentration as an “opportunity and a risk.”

“These are tremendously profitable cash flow generative businesses that have a great deal of flexibility to invest that cash flow,” said Smith, whose firm invests in equities and fixed income. “But the way we’re looking at it increasingly is the sheer amount of investment and capital that is being required is quite simply eye-popping.”

That’s not the only concern for the debt market.

White of BondCliQ says that with such a vast supply of debt hitting the market from the top tech companies, investors are going to demand stronger yields from everyone else. Increased supply leads to lower bond prices, and when bond prices fall, yields rise.

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Alphabet’s sale was reportedly five times oversubscribed, but “if you supply this much paper into the marketplace, eventually demand is going to wane,” White said.

For borrowers, that means a higher cost of capital, which results in a hit to profits. The companies to look out for, White said, are those that have to come back to the market in the next couple years, when interest rates for corporate bonds are likely to be higher.

“It will cause much, much higher corporate debt financing across the board,” White said, specifying increased costs for companies like automakers and banks. “That’s a big problem down the line because it means higher debt servicing costs.”

— CNBC’s Seema Mody and Jennifer Elias contributed to this report.

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WATCH: Alphabet to raise over $30 billion in bond sale

Alphabet to raise over $30B with global bond sale, sources

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BlackRock Files $BITA for Bitcoin Income ETF Strategy

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • BlackRock assigned the ticker $BITA to its proposed iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF.
  • The company filed an amended S-1 registration statement for the new Bitcoin fund.
  • The ETF will combine spot Bitcoin exposure with a covered call options strategy.
  • Eric Balchunas said BlackRock has not set a management fee and estimated 38 basis points.
  • The fund plans to hold Bitcoin-linked assets, including shares of IBIT.

BlackRock has advanced its Bitcoin product range by assigning the ticker $BITA to a new income-focused ETF. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas confirmed the update on X and referenced an amended S-1 filing. The product will combine spot Bitcoin exposure with an options overlay strategy.

BlackRock Advances Bitcoin Premium Income Structure

BlackRock plans to list the fund as the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF under the ticker $BITA. Eric Balchunas stated on X that the firm filed an amended S-1 registration statement. He described the fund as a sequel to the company’s existing Bitcoin ETF lineup.

He added that BlackRock has not set a management fee for the product. However, he placed his “over/under” estimate at 38 basis points. The company has not announced an official launch date.

The proposed ETF will hold Bitcoin-linked assets, including shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust. The trust trades under the ticker IBIT and provides spot Bitcoin exposure. The new strategy will also write covered call options on those holdings to generate premium income.

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According to prior SEC filings, the structure aims to deliver income while tracking Bitcoin’s price performance. The fund will reflect Bitcoin returns net of expenses. BlackRock designed the ETF to expand beyond passive exposure into yield-based strategies.

The filing shows that the fund will combine direct exposure with an income-generating overlay. The approach mirrors covered call equity ETFs that seek steady option premiums. BlackRock continues to broaden its institutional crypto offerings through structured products.

Morgan Stanley Moves Forward With MSBT Listing

Morgan Stanley has progressed with its own spot Bitcoin ETF under the proposed ticker MSBT. The New York Stock Exchange issued a listing notice earlier this year. If approved, MSBT would mark the first spot Bitcoin ETF issued by a major U.S. bank.

The trust will hold Bitcoin in custody and allow brokerage clients to access spot exposure. Coinbase Custody will safeguard the Bitcoin in cold storage. BNY Mellon will manage administration, transfer agency services, and cash operations.

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Filings revealed that MSBT will carry a 0.14% annual expense ratio. That fee undercuts BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, which charges about 0.25%. The competitive pricing may support distribution within Morgan Stanley’s wealth platform.

Morgan Stanley oversees trillions in client assets across its advisory network. The firm plans to seed the ETF with about 50,000 shares valued at about $1million. The structure aligns with existing U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Recent data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted tens of billions in inflows since launch. Asset managers continue to compete on fees and product design. Regulators have not yet announced final approval dates for either $BITA or MSBT.

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Bitcoin Price Holds Firm Without Historic Profit Reset

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Bitcoin price rose 3% in 24 hours and moved back above $68,000.
  • The 365-day average profitability remains high at 87.5%, showing no full market reset.
  • Analysts said past bear markets saw the long-term average drop near 63.8% before recovery.
  • Current data shows 66.4% of the Bitcoin supply remains in profit despite recent declines.
  • Bitcoin continues to trade above the $54,000 Realized Price level.

Bitcoin (BTC) price opened in April above $68,000 after a 3% daily gain, yet the broader trend remains downward. On-chain data shows long-term profitability remains elevated despite recent declines. Analysts state the market has not completed the deep reset seen in prior bear cycles.

Bitcoin Price Holds Above $68,000 as Long-Term Profitability Stays Elevated

Bitcoin price climbed 3% in 24 hours and traded above $68,000 at press time. However, price action still reflects a prevailing downtrend across higher time frames. Short-term rebounds continue, yet broader market pressure persists.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said profitability metrics have not reached prior bear market lows. He stated that 66.4% of the Bitcoin supply remains in profit as of April 1, 2026. Meanwhile, the 30-day moving average stands at 69.1%, which reflects reduced short-term gains.

Adler highlighted the 365-day moving average, which remains elevated at 87.5%. He said previous cycles saw this metric fall sharply before full recovery phases began. In late 2017, the indicator reached 96% before dropping to 63.8% by May 2019.

He explained that this earlier decline confirmed a complete market reset. In contrast, the current 365-day average has not approached those historical lows. Therefore, long-term holders still retain strong profitability levels despite ongoing drawdowns.

Historical Reset Levels and Realized Price at $54,000 Remain Key Reference Points

Adler compared the current downturn with corrections in September 2023 and September 2024. He said those pullbacks weakened short-term profitability but left long-term averages intact. The 2026 decline pushed the metric down to 55.7%, while the 30-day average fell to 66.7%.

Despite deeper losses this year, the 365-day average remains near 87.5%. Adler stated, “As long as the 365DMA stays elevated, the market resembles an extended correction.” He added that a full capitulation phase would require a sharper long-term profitability drop.

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Separately, analyst Ardi reviewed Bitcoin’s seasonal performance trends since 2014. He reported that April ranks as the third-strongest month historically, with a 9.1% average return. However, he said market context matters because 2026 reflects bear market conditions.

Ardi cited April 2014, when Bitcoin declined 2%, and April 2022, when it fell 18.7%. He also referenced April 2018, which delivered a 35.7% rebound within a broader downturn. According to him, strong monthly averages do not override prevailing trends.

CryptoQuant analyst Tugce focused on Bitcoin’s Realized Price, currently near $54,000. She said Bitcoin historically falls below this level before forming major cycle bottoms. Tugce stated, “The $54,000 area represents a key historical threshold during bear phases.”

She added that price could trade below the Realized Price for an extended period. Historical data shows previous bear markets reached that stage before recovery began. Bitcoin continues to trade well above $54,000 as of the latest market update.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction Heats Up as Nakamoto Inc Sells $20M in BTC and Pepeto Eyes 100x Before Listing

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Bitcoin Price Prediction Heats Up as Nakamoto Inc Sells $20M in BTC and Pepeto Eyes 100x Before Listing

Nakamoto Inc, the bitcoin treasury firm chaired by entrepreneur David Bailey, quietly sold 284 BTC for $20 million during March at an average price of $70,422 per coin, a price Bitcoin has not touched since, while Strategy continues targeting one million BTC by year end with holdings now at 762,099 coins according to 99Bitcoins. The contrast between one treasury selling and another aggressively buying tells you everything about where conviction sits in this market.

Pepeto has pulled in more than $8.69 million during this exact fear window, locking early holders into a fixed entry before the approaching Binance listing shifts the price permanently, and this bitcoin price prediction breakdown shows where committed capital is flowing while the crowd waits.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Shifts as Strategy Targets 1 Million BTC While Nakamoto Inc Takes Profits

Strategy now controls 762,099 BTC and is targeting one million coins by the end of 2026, funded through $1.2 billion in perpetual preferred shares called STRC that hit $300 million in single-day trading volume according to FinanceFeeds.

Exchange reserves dropped to a six year low of 2.31 million BTC per BeInCrypto, and the Fear and Greed Index sits at 8, the lowest reading since October 2023, a level that has historically produced positive 14-day forward returns 78% of the time according to Blockchain Magazine.

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The Fear and Greed Index in single digits is a reading that only appeared a handful of times before, and each time preceded recoveries that turned the bitcoin price prediction from bearish to explosive for holders who bought while everyone else was selling.

BTC Forecast Meets Presale Positioning in the Fear Zone

Pepeto Builds What Pepe Never Had and the Presale Proves It

Traders tracking the bitcoin price prediction are looking past surface level forecasts, they want an entry that places them before returns are already priced in. Pepeto is where that entry forms right now, created by the cofounder who built the original Pepe coin to an $11 billion peak with zero exchange tools.

The smart capital wants positioning before exchange listing removes the presale price permanently. Pepeto sits at $0.000000186 with a Binance listing approaching, and analysts project 100x to 300x from current levels, a gap that disappears the moment trading opens. More than $8.69 million raised during extreme fear confirms conviction money entering while the broader market hesitates, and every week that number climbs higher while the entry you are reading about right now gets one round closer to disappearing.

Pepeto stands apart because its exchange platform already runs and earns from every direction the market moves. PepetoSwap processes trades at zero cost so the position you build stays larger than it would on any platform taking a cut from both sides. The risk scorer checks every contract before you buy, so the money you move in stays protected while others learn the hard way which tokens were built to drain them.

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Staking at 190% APY stacks a passive return while the listing approaches. Every day the presale stays open is one more day you could be inside earning, and the wallets entering now through Pepeto are building positions that listing day converts into returns everyone outside will wish they had secured when this price still existed.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Holds Near $68,839 as Exchange Supply Reaches Cycle Lows

Bitcoin trades near $68,839 according to CoinMarketCap after weeks of range-bound consolidation as geopolitical tensions keep capital in defensive positions.

The 46% decline from October’s $126,210 all time high leaves BTC between $66,000 and $70,000, with Bernstein maintaining a $150,000 year end target citing Q1 ETF inflows of $18.7 billion per CoinDesk.

Strategy now controls 762,099 BTC according to filings, the highest corporate holding on record, while Nakamoto Inc’s $20M sale at $70,422 shows not all treasuries share the same conviction. The math from $68,839 to $150,000 delivers roughly 119% over months, real money but a fraction of what presale entries return when a confirmed listing sits weeks away.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction and the Presale Window That Fear Built

The bitcoin price prediction reveals a market pinned between fear and institutional buying, with BTC showing real corporate backing despite short term weakness. These are tested assets with active capital behind them, but timing in crypto cycles decides everything. Early BTC holders turned a few hundred dollars into generational wealth, and all of them say they wish they had bought more when no one was paying attention.

That pattern is forming around Pepeto now, with more than $8.69 million locked by wallets that see the signal before the Binance listing removes the presale price permanently. The capital flowing through the Pepeto official website is choosing which side of the listing it lands on before the window shuts.

Click To Visit Pepeto Website To Enter The Presale

FAQs:

What Is the Latest Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2026?

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Analysts target $150,000 by year end as Strategy accumulates 762,099 BTC during extreme fear, with BTC holding near $68,839 and Q1 ETF inflows reaching $18.7 billion.

Why Do Investors Compare BTC Forecasts With Presale Entries?

BTC’s projected move to $150,000 represents 119% gain over months, while presale entries before a confirmed listing deliver wider returns in a shorter window through the Pepeto official website.

Is Pepeto a Strong Entry During This Fear Cycle?

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The bitcoin price prediction cycle rewards early positioning, and Pepeto with more than $8.69 million raised and a Binance listing approaching gives early holders a confirmed entry before the presale price disappears permanently.


Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.

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Fed’s Barr Calls for Balanced US Stablecoin Rules Under GENIUS Act

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Federal Reserve, Legislation, United States, Stablecoin, Genius Act

US Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said Tuesday that clearer US stablecoin rules could speed the market’s growth, but warned that regulators still need to address money laundering risks, bank run risks and consumer safeguards as they implement the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act.

Speaking at a Federalist Society event on stablecoin regulation, Barr said the law provides “needed clarity” for issuers, but that “a great deal will depend on how federal and state regulators implement the statute.”

Barr said stablecoins are still used mainly for crypto trading and as a US dollar store of value in some foreign markets, though they could also lower remittance costs, speed up trade finance processing and help firms manage treasury operations. He also highlighted the risk of bad actors buying stablecoins in secondary markets without identity checks, and said issuers may be tempted to stretch for yield in reserve assets in ways that undermine confidence during stress.

Barr’s speech also cast the stablecoin debate in historical terms. He said private money has a “long and painful history” when safeguards are weak, pointing to the Free Banking Era in the US, the Panic of 1907, money market fund stress during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 shock, and more recent stablecoin valuation pressure as reasons to be cautious about any asset marketed as redeemable at par on demand.

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Barr’s remarks come as US agencies move from legislation to rule-writing. The US Treasury Department opened a second round of public comment on implementing the GENIUS Act in September 2025, saying the law must be translated into rules that both encourage innovation and address illicit finance, consumer protections and financial stability risks.

Federal Reserve, Legislation, United States, Stablecoin, Genius Act
Brief Remarks on Stablecoins. Source: Federal Reserve

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman told lawmakers in February that banking regulators were already working on capital and liquidity rules for stablecoin issuers, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation chair Travis Hill said in March that the agency does not expect stablecoins to receive deposit insurance under the law.

Related: Who gets the yield? CLARITY Act becomes fight over onchain dollars

Barr warns GENIUS Act rollout will test stablecoin safeguards

Barr’s speech signals where the implementation fights may land. He flagged reserve asset rules, regulatory arbitrage, the scope of issuer activities beyond issuance, capital and liquidity requirements, Anti-Money Laundering (AML) checks and consumer protection standards as the key issues still to be settled.

The GENIUS Act, signed into law on July 18, 2025, created a federal framework for payment stablecoins in the United States. The law requires issuers to maintain one-to-one backing with reserve assets such as US dollars and Treasury bills, and is expected to take effect 18 months after signing or 120 days after final agency rules are completed.

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Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026