Crypto World
The Black Bull (ANSEM) price prediction 2026
A Pump.fun token airdropped to a famous trader’s wallet is up tens of thousands of percent in days. Here is the honest version: this is a high-risk memecoin with no product, and most tokens like it go to zero.
Summary
- The Black Bull (ANSEM) is a Solana memecoin launched on Pump.fun in mid-June 2026, trading near $0.13 with a market cap around $56 million after a move of roughly 26,000% in a week.
- The token was not created by the trader it is named after. An anonymous developer airdropped a large share of the supply to the wallet of Ansem, a well-known Solana influencer, who later embraced it rather than launching his own coin.
- There is no product, roadmap, team, or revenue behind the token. Its price is driven entirely by attention, one influencer’s involvement, and speculative trading, which makes it a casino bet, not an investment.
- On-chain analysis tools have flagged manipulation risk and heavy holder concentration; liquidity is thin relative to the market cap, and the trader associated with it has faced market-manipulation allegations.
- Third-party forecasts that exist for ANSEM are wide and speculative, spanning roughly $0.03 to $0.25, and the most realistic base case for any token of this type is a sharp drawdown, with a real chance of going to near zero.
Before anything else, the blunt version. The Black Bull, traded under the ticker ANSEM, is a memecoin. It has no underlying business, no cash flows, and no roadmap that would anchor a valuation. Its price exists because a famous trader is associated with it and the internet is paying attention.
Tokens like this can produce life-changing gains and total losses inside the same week, and the overwhelming majority of Pump.fun launches lose nearly all their value, many within a single day. Any “price prediction” for an asset like this is closer to handicapping a roulette spin than forecasting a company. Read the rest with that frame fixed in place.
This piece explains what The Black Bull actually is, the numbers behind its move, why it is a casino rather than an investment, the bull thesis stated fairly, the specific ways it could go to zero, what the few forecasters tracking it say, and then bull, base, and bear scenarios. It closes with a short FAQ.
What The Black Bull (ANSEM) actually is
The Black Bull is a Solana token launched on Pump.fun, the memecoin launchpad, around June 16 to 17, 2026, with the on-chain contract address ending in “pump” as Pump.fun tokens do. The story that gave it life is specific. An anonymous developer created the token and airdropped a large portion of the supply, by some accounts around 65%, directly to the wallet of Ansem, a prominent Solana trader and influencer also known by the handle blknoiz06, whose real name is Zion Thomas. Ansem is one of the best-known memecoin personalities on Solana, with roughly a million followers and a reputation as an early caller of tokens like WIF and BONK.
Crucially, Ansem did not create the token, and it is not officially his project. The developer essentially bet that putting the supply in a famous wallet would manufacture attention. It worked. Rather than dump the airdrop or launch a competing coin of his own, Ansem leaned in, reportedly pledging to airdrop creator fees back to holders instead of cashing out, and his wallet holds a very large position, on the order of 600 million tokens that at points represented the bulk of his visible on-chain portfolio. That alignment, a recognizable figure with skin in the game, is the entire bull narrative. It is also the entire risk, because the token’s fate is tethered to one person’s continued involvement.
The numbers behind the move
As of late June 2026, ANSEM trades near $0.13, having reached a peak around $0.14 on June 29. The 7-day move was roughly 26,000%, the kind of figure that only appears in freshly launched memecoins coming off a near-zero base. The market cap sits around $56 million, with roughly 410 million of a 1 billion total supply in circulation, implying a fully diluted valuation closer to $136 million. The token ranks somewhere around #374 by market cap, and daily trading volume has run between roughly $60 million and $94 million, which against a $56 million cap produces a volume-to-market-cap ratio above 2.
That ratio is itself a warning light: it means the token turns over its entire value more than twice a day, the signature of frantic speculative churn rather than steady holding. ANSEM trades across venues including PumpSwap and Meteora on Solana, with perpetual futures listed on some offshore exchanges such as MEXC and others, and it has appeared as a verified token on Solana interfaces like Jupiter and Phantom. The presence of leveraged perps on a token this young amplifies the volatility in both directions, because liquidations can cascade fast when the price moves.
These numbers describe a token in the most volatile possible phase of its life. The percentage gains are real, and so is the fragility underneath them.
Why this is a casino, not an investment
This section is the heart of the piece, and it is deliberately heavier than the bull case, because the risks here are not footnotes. They are the main event.
First, there is nothing to value. ANSEM has no product, no revenue, no roadmap, and no team in the conventional sense. There is no cash flow to discount, no user base to grow, no utility that creates demand for the token beyond speculation. Its price is a pure function of attention and belief, both of which can evaporate without warning.
Second, on-chain analysis has flagged it. Token-screening tools such as Rugcheck have raised manipulation warnings tied to supply concentration in wallets that are not clearly identified. Heavy concentration means a small number of holders could move the price violently or exit into the liquidity that retail buyers provide. Thin liquidity relative to the market cap compounds this: when real liquidity is shallow, a few large sells can collapse the price far faster than the order book suggests.
Third, the person at the center carries his own controversy. The trader associated with the token has faced market-manipulation allegations in the broader memecoin context, which adds reputational and regulatory risk to an asset whose entire thesis rests on his involvement. If he steps back, sells, or is forced to distance himself, the narrative that supports the price can vanish.
Fourth, the base rate is brutal. The large majority of Pump.fun memecoins lose almost all their value, frequently within hours or days of launch. Survivorship bias makes the winners loud and the thousands of dead tokens silent. Treating ANSEM as likely to be one of the rare survivors, instead of one of the many that fade, is the single most common and most expensive mistake buyers of tokens like this make.
Put together, these are not reasons to never touch a memecoin. They are reasons to size any exposure as money one is fully prepared to lose, and to never confuse a fast chart with a sound investment.
The bull thesis, stated fairly
For balance, the case the buyers make deserves a fair hearing, even inside a risk-first frame. The bull argument has 3 legs. The first is reach: Ansem commands a large, engaged audience, and in memecoins, attention is the scarce resource that drives price. A token he is actively associated with has a built-in distribution advantage that most launches never get.
The second is alignment. By reportedly pledging to route creator fees back to holders instead of launching a separate token to cash in, Ansem signaled that his incentives point in the same direction as the people holding the coin, at least for now. In a category defined by developers dumping on their communities, an influencer choosing to share fees is a comparatively constructive signal.
The third is the Solana memecoin meta itself. Solana has repeatedly produced memecoins that ran far longer and higher than skeptics expected, and the ecosystem’s culture, low fees, and fast launches keep the speculative engine fed. In a market where attention rotates quickly, a token with a recognizable face and an active community can sustain a narrative longer than a faceless launch.
None of this changes the absence of fundamentals. The bull case is a bet that attention and alignment persist long enough to matter, which is a real but fragile proposition.
What could make it go to zero
The bear mechanics are concrete and worth naming, because they are the most probable outcome for tokens of this kind. Concentration is the first: if large holders, identified or not, decide to sell into the thin liquidity, the price can fall faster than buyers can react, and early entrants exit at the expense of late ones. Liquidity withdrawal is the second: if liquidity providers pull their positions, the token can become nearly untradeable at anything close to the quoted price.
Narrative death is the third and most likely slow killer. Memecoins live on attention, and attention is finite. When the crowd rotates to the next launch, volume dries up, the chart bleeds, and the token drifts toward irrelevance even without a dramatic crash. Copycats accelerate this, as the inevitable wave of imitation tokens splits the speculative capital and dilutes the original’s mindshare. Finally, the single-person dependency is the acute risk: if Ansem sells, goes quiet, or is forced to distance himself for legal or reputational reasons, the one pillar holding up the price is removed, and there is nothing fundamental left to catch it.
Any one of these can take a token like this down by 80% or more in short order, and several can combine. This is not a tail risk for ANSEM. It is the central scenario that any honest forecast has to treat as the base case.
What forecasters say
A handful of exchange-affiliated outlets have published speculative ANSEM ranges, and they should be read as guesses about a chaotic asset, not as analysis grounded in fundamentals, because there are no fundamentals to ground them in. These are 3rd-party figures, not endorsements.
Some short-term models from venues such as WEEX have sketched a near-term base band roughly between $0.085 and $0.135, a momentum upside toward $0.15 to $0.18 if attention holds, and a downside toward $0.06 to $0.075 if it fades. Broader 2026 ranges floated by outlets including BTCC and WEEX span roughly $0.03 to $0.25. The width of these ranges, a possible multiple up or a collapse of more than half, is the most honest thing about them: it concedes that the outcome is dominated by reflexive sentiment, not by anything that can be modeled. For an asset like this, the error bars are the message.
The pattern this fits: influencer memecoins before ANSEM
The Black Bull is not the first token to run on a famous name, and the history of the pattern is the most useful guide to its likely path. Solana has produced a long line of influencer-linked and celebrity memecoins, some tied to the same callers who built reputations on early WIF and BONK trades. The recurring shape is familiar: a token attaches itself to a recognizable figure, attention floods in, the price goes parabolic on a near-zero base, and a wave of buyers arrives late expecting the early gains to repeat. What happens next sorts almost entirely on whether attention and the figure’s involvement persist.
The brutal majority outcome is decay. Most of these tokens fade within days or weeks as the crowd rotates to the next launch, leaving holders who bought the peak deeply underwater. A small number sustain a community and trade sideways at a fraction of their high for longer. A rare few extend into something more durable, and those are the cases the next round of buyers remembers, which is exactly how survivorship bias keeps the cycle turning. The honest framing is that ANSEM is drawing from the same deck, and the base rates for that deck are unforgiving.
What makes The Black Bull slightly different from a faceless launch is the creator-fee airdrop dynamic, which gives the central figure a reason to stay engaged instead of dumping immediately. That can extend the attention window. It does not change the category math.
An influencer can prolong a memecoin’s life, but no influencer has reliably prevented the eventual reversion that defines the type. Treating ANSEM as exempt from that pattern, because this time the figure seems aligned, is the precise belief that has separated late buyers from their money in every prior cycle.
If you choose to speculate anyway
This is not a recommendation to buy ANSEM or any memecoin. But because people will trade tokens like this regardless of warnings, the harm-reduction principles that disciplined speculators apply are worth stating plainly, since they are the difference between a survivable loss and a damaging one.
The first principle is sizing. Money committed to an asset like this should be money one can lose in full without affecting rent, savings, or obligations, because total loss is a realistic outcome, not a worst case. The second is that the position should be treated as already gone the moment it is opened, which removes the emotional pressure that leads people to average down into a falling token or chase it higher. The third is that taking profits on the way up is the only way speculative gains become real; a paper gain in a token with thin liquidity is not a realized gain until it is sold, and the same shallow liquidity that let the price spike can prevent an exit at the quoted price on the way down.
The fourth principle is to distrust leverage entirely here. The presence of perpetual futures on a token this young and this volatile is a fast path to liquidation, because the swings that make memecoins exciting also trigger margin calls in minutes.
The fifth is to verify instead of assume: checking the contract, the liquidity, and the holder concentration before committing, instead of trusting a chart or a name. None of this makes a memecoin a sound investment. It makes the gamble less likely to cause real damage, which is the most honest advice anyone can give about an asset with no fundamentals.
Bull, base, and bear scenarios for ANSEM
These scenarios are illustrative and speculative. For a memecoin with no fundamentals, they describe possible paths driven by attention and holder behavior, not valuations. The bear case is weighted as the most probable, consistent with how tokens of this type typically resolve.
Bull case
In the bull scenario, Ansem stays actively involved, the creator-fee airdrops keep holders engaged, and the Solana memecoin meta stays hot enough to keep attention flowing. Volume holds, new buyers keep arriving faster than early holders exit, and the token sustains or extends its level, pushing toward the upper speculative bands near $0.15 to $0.25 that the most optimistic 3rd-party ranges describe. This case requires attention to persist, concentration not to unwind, and no reputational or regulatory shock to the figure at its center. It is possible, and in memecoins it does happen, but it is the minority outcome.
Base case
In the base scenario, the initial frenzy cools as it almost always does. Volume fades from its launch peak, the chart gives back a large portion of the parabolic move, and the token settles into a lower, choppier range, perhaps the $0.06 to $0.13 zone, while it searches for whether a durable community remains after the hype. From there it either grinds out a smaller, attention-dependent existence or slowly bleeds lower as the crowd moves on. Even this “survives but deflates” path involves a substantial drawdown from the peak for anyone who bought the top.
Bear case
In the bear scenario, which is the most likely for a token of this kind, the attention rotates away, concentration unwinds into thin liquidity, or the single-person narrative breaks. The price falls 80% or more from its highs and continues toward near zero as volume disappears, joining the large majority of Pump.fun launches that do not survive. A liquidity pull, a large holder exit, a wave of copycats, or the central figure stepping back are each sufficient to trigger this, and they often compound. Anyone holding into this scenario should expect to lose most or all of the position.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Ansem create The Black Bull token?
No. The token was created by an anonymous developer who airdropped a large share of the supply to Ansem’s wallet to attract attention. Ansem, the Solana trader also known as blknoiz06, did not launch it, and it is not officially his project. He later embraced it and reportedly pledged to share creator fees with holders, but the origin was a 3rd party using his name and wallet.
Why has ANSEM risen so much?
The move, roughly 26,000% in a week, reflects a freshly launched memecoin coming off a near-zero base combined with the attention of a well-known influencer. There is no product or revenue driving it. The price is a function of speculation, social momentum, and one person’s involvement, which is exactly why it can reverse just as violently.
Is The Black Bull a safe investment?
No. It is a high-risk memecoin with no fundamentals, flagged manipulation and concentration risk, thin liquidity, and a price dependent on a single person’s involvement. The large majority of tokens like it lose nearly all their value. It should be treated as a speculative gamble with money one is fully prepared to lose entirely, not as an investment.
What are the biggest risks?
The biggest risks are holder concentration selling into thin liquidity, liquidity providers withdrawing, attention rotating away and the narrative dying, copycat tokens splitting interest, and the central figure selling or stepping back for legal or reputational reasons. Any one can cause an 80%-plus decline, and they often combine.
What price targets do forecasters give?
Speculative 3rd-party ranges from exchange-affiliated outlets span roughly $0.03 to $0.25 for 2026, with short-term bands near $0.06 to $0.18. These are guesses about a chaotic, sentiment-driven asset, not fundamentals-based analysis. The wide ranges reflect that the outcome cannot be modeled with any confidence.
What is the most likely outcome?
For a memecoin of this type, the most likely outcome is a sharp drawdown from the peak, with a meaningful chance of trending toward near zero as attention fades. A minority of such tokens sustain a smaller community-driven existence, and a rare few extend higher. Betting on the rare outcome is the most common and costly mistake.
Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Memecoins are extremely high-risk, speculative assets with no underlying value, and most lose nearly all of their value. Prices are highly volatile, and the figures here, accurate as of June 30, 2026, will change rapidly. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Never invest more than you can afford to lose entirely, and consider consulting a licensed professional before making financial decisions.
Bitcoin’s price is on the move today, prompted by the latest developments on the US-Iran war front, but this time in the opposite direction.
After it slipped to another multi-week low yesterday evening, the cryptocurrency has rebounded by approximately $1,500 and now sits at around $63,500. The reason for this is the major de-escalation announced by the POTUS hours ago.
US President Trump announced on his social media platform, Truth Social, that although his country’s military remains “locked and loaded” to continue attacking Iran, they were asked by the Middle Eastern country and other nations in the region to pause the strikes for now.
He added that those countries are working on a new deal that would include the “immediate, complete and total opening of the Hormuz Strait, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.”
“Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL. The Country of Israel joins me in this commitment. Get to work, everybody, and get it DONE.”
As mentioned above, BTC reacted immediately with a notable rebound. It had dipped to an 18-day low at $62,200 yesterday evening as the tension between the two had increased once again, with new planned strikes. In addition, there are other factors, such as ETF exodus and technical indicators, that suggested the cryptocurrency could face another leg down soon.
For now, though, the war developments appear to have the most significant impact on bitcoin’s price moves, and essentially every de-escalation brings back hope to the market. The actual impact is likely to be experienced on Monday morning, as it has happened numerous times in the past several weeks.
The post Bitcoin Price Rebounds as Trump Calls Off Iran Strikes and Hints at a Deal appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Leading Bitcoin treasury company Strategy’s results for the second quarter show a loss of over $8 billion, while crypto exchange Coinbase reported a 14% quarterly revenue loss.
According to the two companies’ latest earnings reports released on Thursday, Strategy lost over $8.23 billion in its operations after recording an unrealized loss of $8.32 billion in the second quarter of 2026. The largest crypto exchange by volume in the U.S., Coinbase, also suffered a 19% annual revenue decline, while its trading volumes went down 24% to slightly above $145 billion.
Q2 2026 Bitcoin Price Cooldown Sees Strategy Draw Losses
Strategy grew its BTC holdings by 846 units within the three-month period ending June 30. In its report, the company’s chief executive, Phong Le, said it reduced its convertible debt to just under $7 billion and increased its U.S. dollar holdings and Bitcoin per share by 12% and 5%, respectively. The Bitcoin treasury had seen a $10 billion income in the second quarter of 2025, but Bitcoin’s dull price performance this year has supposedly caused a net loss of $8.22 billion.
“Our objective is for STRC to trade over time at $99 to $100. If STRC trades below $100, we intend to repurchase STRC shares in a regular and disciplined manner, scaling our repurchases according to market price and liquidity. These repurchases are an attractive use of capital that reduces our future preferred dividend requirements at a discount while allowing independent market demand to establish a healthy and sustainable market,” the CEO explained.
In the total revenue column for the quarter, Strategy announced it had a 6.9% increase in the last 12 months, jumping from $114.5 million in Q2 2025 to over $122 million in Q2 2026. The gross profits made by the company’s business reached $81.6 million, which it counted as a 69% gross margin compared to the previous year’s second quarter’s $78.7 million.
“In the midst of this phase of muted bitcoin sentiment and market skepticism, we continue to evolve our business model and establish Digital Credit as a new asset class. Our plan is to return STRC to health with stable demand, high liquidity, and low volatility trading near par. We believe this is the best way to create shareholder value over the long term,” executive chairman and founder Michael Saylor told reporters.
Coinbase Revenue Drops after Trading Slump, Prediction Market Thrives
Meanwhile, Coinbase’s first half of the year continues to yield lower-than-expected earnings following a continued loss trend in both quarters, but its prediction market sector has risen by more than $100% quarter-over-quarter. The exchange revealed its revenue had taken a 19% hit in the 12 months ending June 30, and its transaction revenue dropped 21%. As seen in the report on net losses, the trading company’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $208 million, while it recorded over $300 million in losses after adjustments.
Coinbase’s fee collection from subscriptions and services slumped by 5% in the quarter but accounted for almost half of its net revenue in that period. Consumer transactional revenue also fell by 20% compared to Q1 2026, which the company attributed to a 24% decline in crypto spot trading volume. At the end of the quarter, the average amount of USDC held across Coinbase products hit a record high of $20 billion, accounting for more than 30% of all USDC in circulation.
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Federal prosecutors are continuing to litigate the fallout from the collapse of FTX, as defense teams push back on what juries can hear and how certain market activities are regulated. In the Southern District of New York (SDNY), Michelle Bond—whose husband, former FTX executive Ryan Salame, is serving a 90-month sentence after pleading guilty in 2023—has asked the court to block references to that guilty plea in a campaign finance case.
At the same time, other SDNY-related crypto-adjacent legal fights are highlighting how prediction markets and event contracts can collide with insider-trading and commodity regulation arguments. Separate actions involving a former congressman’s Kalshi trades and a US soldier accused of making a large Polymarket bet underscore that courts may soon be forced to clarify both evidentiary rules and the legal classification of event contracts.
Key takeaways
- Michelle Bond’s legal team asked SDNY to exclude evidence tied to Ryan Salame’s guilty plea, arguing it has little relevance to Bond’s alleged intent or knowledge.
- In a separate CFTC case, former New York Rep. George Santos was ordered to pay $35,000 over trades on Kalshi’s event contracts, with the regulator citing misleading posts about his planned attendance at the 2026 State of the Union.
- A US soldier accused of earning more than $400,000 on Polymarket event contracts is seeking dismissal, challenging whether the Commodity Exchange Act can clearly apply to event contracts as “swaps.”
- Across these matters, the central pressure points are evidentiary fairness for defendants and regulatory clarity for prediction-market participants.
Bond seeks to bar Salame’s guilty plea in campaign finance fight
According to a Friday filing in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, Michelle Bond’s attorneys asked the court to preclude the government from introducing evidence about Ryan Salame’s guilty plea or any “related plea materials” in her campaign finance case.
Bond faces charges over alleged unlawful campaign funding tied to her unsuccessful 2022 congressional run in New York. The prosecution’s theory, as described in the filing, is that contributions supporting Bond’s campaign were partially funded through FTX arrangements facilitated by Salame.
Salame pleaded guilty in 2023 and is currently serving a 90-month sentence connected to conduct arising from FTX’s 2022 collapse. In Bond’s motion, her lawyers argued that Salame’s plea—where he admitted to making political contributions in Bond’s name funded by transfers from accounts associated with an FTX-linked entity—should not be treated as evidence against Bond herself.
“The Court should preclude the government from introducing or referring to Mr. Salame’s guilty plea or any related plea materials, because their minimal probative value is substantially outweighed by the risk of unfair prejudice to Ms. Bond,” the filing states.
Bond’s team further said that the plea materials do not meaningfully bear on Bond’s state of mind. They characterized the plea as an admission of Salame’s own guilt, not proof of Bond’s knowledge or participation in the charged conduct, quoting from the motion: “[…] Mr. Salame’s plea materials lack any probative value as to Ms. Bond’s guilt, knowledge, or intent. Mr. Salame’s plea is an admission of his own guilt, not evidence of Ms. Bond’s state of mind or participation in any charged offense.”
How personal litigation could become part of the argument
Bond’s motion also requested that the court allow information connected to her “contemporaneous divorce and custody proceedings.” Her lawyers appear to be positioning that personal context to rebut the government’s characterization of Bond as an “ordinary ‘individual’ donor,” despite her and Salame having divorced before the alleged criminal conduct.
While the filing’s request reflects a broader strategy often used in criminal litigation—attempting to shape how jurors interpret the campaign contributions and the parties’ relationship—the court’s decision will determine what personal-history evidence, if any, is ultimately presented.
CFTC penalizes George Santos for Kalshi event-contract trading
Separate from the FTX-linked litigation, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued an order involving George Santos, a former member of the US House of Representatives who was expelled from Congress in 2023. The CFTC ordered Santos to pay $17,500 in a civil monetary penalty plus $17,570 in disgorgement from profits earned through prediction market trading on Kalshi.
According to the CFTC, the relevant trades were tied to event contracts betting on whether Santos would appear at the 2026 State of the Union in Washington, DC. The regulator said Santos posted on social media about his plans to attend or not attend the event, and that these posts contained “material misrepresentations and omissions.”
The CFTC added that after the posts, contract prices moved in a direction favorable to Santos’ positions, enabling him to earn over $17,500.
As part of the CFTC order, Santos is barred from trading on prediction market platforms for three years.
The case also sits in the shadow of Santos’ criminal proceedings. Earlier coverage notes Santos was sentenced to 87 months in prison in 2025 for wire fraud and aggravated identity theft, though he served only three months before his sentence was commuted by US President Donald Trump, as reflected in the article’s background.
Polymarket insider-trading allegations tested under “swap” debate
A more direct challenge to prediction-market regulation is underway in another SDNY matter. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US soldier accused of making more than $400,000 trading Polymarket event contracts, is attempting to dismiss the indictment.
As outlined in the background of the case, prosecutors allege that Van Dyke traded using nonpublic information connected to a military operation involving the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January. The US Department of Justice alleges he used that alleged insider information to wager on whether Maduro would be removed from power, leading to criminal charges filed in April.
In a Friday SDNY filing, Van Dyke’s attorneys submitted a 51-page memorandum supporting a motion to dismiss. Among other arguments, they contend that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) is ambiguous in how it treats event contracts as “swaps,” which is relevant to three of the charges.
Van Dyke’s lawyers argue that the ambiguity affects basic fairness: if the “swap” definition is not clear across Congress, agencies, and courts, ordinary citizens may lack “fair notice” that their prediction-market wagers fall under the CEA.
“If Congress, executive branch agencies, and courts all find the ‘swap’ definition ambiguous, how can ordinary citizens have fair notice that prediction market wagers are covered by the CEA?” the filing asks.
The defense also contrasts with the position taken by the CFTC under Chair Michael Selig, which has argued it has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets by treating event contracts as “swaps.” The dismissal motion suggests that—at least for some counts—those jurisdictional assumptions may not survive if the law is too unclear.
Why these cases matter beyond one courtroom
Taken together, the filings point to two urgent fault lines for the crypto-adjacent prediction market space: what evidence courts allow juries to consider when guilt and intent are contested, and whether the regulatory framework—especially the CEA’s treatment of event contracts—offers enough clarity for enforcement.
As courts weigh motions like Bond’s request to exclude plea materials and Van Dyke’s bid to dismiss based on legal ambiguity, traders, builders, and public officials using event-contract platforms may want to watch how judges define relevance, prejudice, and “fair notice.” The next procedural rulings could signal how far prosecutors can stretch existing statutes—and how tightly defendants can force regulators to justify their classification theories.
The first half of 2026 was the most active six months for crypto exploits on record.
This is according to a new report from Blockaid, which shows hackers stole $1.1 billion across 212 incidents.
Crypto Hacks Top $1.1B in H1 2026
The Blockaid report found that four major incidents involving KelpDAO, Drift, Resolv, and CoW Swap made up roughly $707 million of the total losses.
KelpDAO suffered the largest loss, after hackers stole $292 million worth of crypto by faking a cross-chain message that siphoned off the protocol’s Ethereum reserves. Drift Protocol, a perpetuals exchange built on the Solana chain, also suffered a similarly huge hit, as it was exploited for $285 million within 12 minutes.
Blockaid linked both cases to TraderTraitor, a state-sponsored North Korean subset of the larger Lazarus Group. Humanity Protocol’s $32 million loss was also connected to the same attacker cluster, bringing DPRK-linked losses to $609 million, which is about 55% of all funds stolen during the period.
The pace of attacks also increased through the year, with monthly incidents going from 18 in January to 57 in June. April proved to be the most painful month, as the KelpDAO and Drift Protocol hacks wiped out a combined $577 million to push total losses in that month to $635 million.
Privileged key misuse was the most costly attack type in the first half of 2026, with losses of approximately $790 million, or close to three-quarters of all funds stolen in the period, said Blockaid. Unbacked mint exploits came second in value, led by the $80 million Resolve breach. But the hacks at the code level caused the most casualties, accounting for nearly four out of five attacks by count.
Attack Vectors Change as New Threats Emerge
The report named AI agents as a new target after hackers in May used a prompt injection attack to fool Bankr’s AI agent into approving an unauthorized transaction for about $216,000.
Cross-chain bridges also took a major hit, with attackers breaching the verification systems of KelpDAO and Taiko through forged proofs and attestations accepted by the destination chains.
In addition, security teams faced newer attack methods in 2026, with Blockaid identifying four incidents involving EIP-7702 wallet delegation attacks, where a wallet can hand control to a smart contract. Legacy smart contracts also continue to be a common vulnerability, with data showing around five cases in May and June, including two involving Aztec Connect and one targeting Raydium’s AMM V3.
Recent incidents outside the report period showed the same pressure on crypto infrastructure. For instance, on July 23, AFX Trade, BSquaredNetwork, and Verus were hit in separate attacks on the same day that collectively caused more than $35 million in losses. Recall that Verus had already suffered another exploit about two months earlier, and Blockaid linked both incidents to the same bridge contract and bug class.
Recovery results varied depending on the type of attack. Per the report, code-related incidents sometimes allowed teams to freeze funds or negotiate returns, while attacks involving stolen keys usually ended with the money moving through mixers or cross-chain routes.
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Holders of Strategy’s (MSTR) high-yielding preferred stock STRC will not see a dividend increase in August.
Led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, Strategy is maintaining the current 12% dividend on the shares.
STRC investors may have been expecting as much as a 50-basis-point hike in the dividend as Strategy has customarily raised the payout anytime the stock traded sizably below its par value ($100) for the month.
As recently as July 1, Strategy had lifted the dividend 50 basis points following June’s plunge in STRC to as low as $71.
While that hike — along with Strategy’s sale of some bitcoin to fund dividends, and a bit of stabilization in the price of bitcoin — helped STRC bounce in July to the current $89.46, that level is still significantly below par.
CEO Phong Le yesterday said Strategy’s Corporate Objective is for STRC to trade at $99-$100 over time.
Nevertheless, the company is under no obligation to raise the dividend and chose not to do so this month.
A Friday filing in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) seeks to limit what prosecutors can use in the campaign-finance case involving Michelle Bond, the wife of former FTX Digital Markets co-CEO Ryan Salame.
Bond’s attorneys argued that evidence tied to Salame’s 2023 guilty plea—while relevant to his own conduct—should not be admitted against her because it carries a risk of unfair prejudice and, in their view, offers little direct proof of Bond’s knowledge or intent. The motion also asks the court to factor in details from Bond’s contemporaneous divorce and custody proceedings.
Key takeaways
- Michelle Bond wants the court to exclude evidence and “related plea materials” tied to Ryan Salame’s guilty plea, arguing they are not probative of her state of mind.
- Bond’s campaign-finance charges stem from allegations that contributions to her 2022 congressional bid were influenced by FTX-linked activity facilitated by Salame.
- The SDNY motion also requests inclusion of information about Bond’s divorce and custody proceedings, contending she was not an “ordinary” donor.
- Separately, the CFTC ordered former congressman George Santos to pay $35,000 in total—$17,500 in penalty and $17,570 in disgorgement—over trades connected to Kalshi prediction market event contracts.
- A soldier accused of making more than $400,000 on Polymarket event contracts linked to a military operation asked the SDNY court to dismiss charges, citing ambiguity in how “swap” definitions apply to event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Bond asks SDNY to keep Salame’s guilty plea out of her case
Bond faces campaign finance charges tied to her unsuccessful 2022 congressional run in New York. According to the criminal allegations, contributions to her campaign were partly funded through FTX-related channels that were facilitated by her husband, Ryan Salame.
In the latest SDNY filing, Bond’s legal team asked the court to preclude prosecutors from introducing Salame’s guilty plea and related plea materials. The filing points to the core logic of the request: Bond is not being tried for Salame’s admissions, and the defense claims the government’s use of those materials would not meaningfully establish Bond’s guilt, knowledge, or intent.
Bond’s attorneys argued that Salame’s plea is an admission of his own conduct, not evidence about Bond’s mental state or participation in the charged offense. They said the materials’ probative value is substantially outweighed by the risk of unfair prejudice to Bond.
Prosecutors are expected to weigh heavily on the narrative connecting alleged campaign funding to the conduct of individuals tied to FTX’s collapse. Bond’s motion, however, signals an effort to narrow what jurors are allowed to consider—particularly evidence that may influence them emotionally or circumstantially rather than strictly proving the elements of the charges against her.
Why the defense is raising divorce and custody proceedings
Alongside the evidentiary dispute over Salame’s plea, Bond’s filing also requested that the court include information related to Bond’s divorce and custody proceedings that were underway around the same time as the alleged crime.
Bond’s lawyers’ position is that the circumstances of her family life affect how her campaign-related donor status should be viewed. The filing argues that Bond should not be treated as an ordinary individual donor solely because she is facing personal charges in connection with her political bid, even if she and Salame were not married at the time of the alleged conduct.
Whether and to what extent these family-law details will be admissible is likely to be a key procedural issue. It can shape the tone and framing of the case—especially if the government seeks to portray the campaign finances as closely connected to Salame’s network rather than to Bond’s independent circumstances.
George Santos ordered to pay over Kalshi predictions market trading
In a separate development involving prediction markets, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ordered former New York representative George Santos—who was expelled from Congress in 2023—to pay a total of $35,000. The figure breaks down into a $17,500 civil monetary penalty and $17,570 in disgorgement of profits.
The regulator said the action was tied to Santos trading on event contracts on Kalshi connected to whether he would attend the 2026 State of the Union address in Washington, DC. The CFTC stated that Santos made social media posts about his plans to attend or not attend the event and that those posts contained “material misrepresentations and omissions.”
According to the CFTC, after the posts, the contract prices moved in a way that became favorable to Santos’ positions and allowed him to make more than $17,500.
As part of the same order, Santos was barred from trading on prediction market platforms for three years. The order also comes against the backdrop of criminal proceedings: Santos was sentenced to 87 months in prison for wire fraud and aggravated identity theft in 2025, but served only three months before his sentence was commuted by U.S. President Donald Trump, as noted in earlier reporting.
Polymarket insider-trading allegations head toward dismissal arguments
Another SDNY filing, this time from the defense of Gannon Ken Van Dyke, challenges the legal foundation of allegations that he profited from Polymarket event contracts using nonpublic information.
The U.S. Justice Department says Van Dyke was involved in a military operation connected to the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, and prosecutors allege he later used insider information to bet whether Maduro would be removed from power—leading to criminal charges announced in April. The defense filing argues Van Dyke is facing accusations involving more than $400,000 in alleged profits from Polymarket event contracts.
Van Dyke’s attorneys filed a 51-page memo supporting a motion to dismiss the indictment based on multiple legal theories. One focus is the Commodity Exchange Act’s treatment of event contracts as “swaps,” which the defense characterizes as ambiguous.
While the CFTC under Chair Michael Selig has asserted that the agency has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets by treating event contracts as “swaps,” Van Dyke’s lawyers say the uncertainty itself is enough to dismiss at least some charges. In the filing, they argue that if lawmakers, executive agencies, and courts consider the “swap” definition ambiguous, then ordinary citizens cannot reasonably have fair notice that prediction market wagers fall under the CEA.
The case is expected to proceed on a timeline that could lead to trial in late 2026 or early 2027, based on a schedule submitted in June, and Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty to all charges.
The defense’s arguments also extend beyond Van Dyke’s personal exposure. The filing suggests the ruling could matter for lawmakers and government officials who have used prediction markets in connection with political events or public statements. Earlier coverage referenced by the filing indicates that Trump’s teleprompter operator reportedly placed more than $100,000 in bets on Kalshi event contracts tied to presidential speeches, underscoring how prediction markets can draw interest from political circles.
Across these cases, courts are being asked to decide what evidence is fair game, what definitions govern crypto-adjacent instruments, and how much clarity regulators must provide before individuals can be held criminally liable—issues that could determine how future crypto and prediction-market enforcement plays out.
Wife of former FTX executive seeks to preclude her husband’s guilty plea
In a Friday filing with the US District Court for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) over campaign finance charges, Michelle Bond’s legal team asked the court to consider precluding evidence related to former FTX Digital Markets co-CEO Ryan Salame, her husband who is currently serving a 90-month sentence after he pleaded guilty in 2023.
Bond faces campaign finance charges alleging that her unsuccessful 2022 congressional run in New York was partially funded by contributions from FTX facilitated by Salame. As part of the filings this week, Bond asked the court to exclude evidence of her husband’s guilty plea and “related plea materials,” in which the former executive admitted to making “political contributions in [his] name that were funded by transfers from the bank accounts” of an entity tied to FTX.
“The Court should preclude the government from introducing or referring to Mr. Salame’s guilty plea or any related plea materials, because their minimal probative value is substantially outweighed by the risk of unfair prejudice to Ms. Bond,” said the filing.
Bond’s lawyers added:
“[…] Mr. Salame’s plea materials lack any probative value as to Ms. Bond’s guilt, knowledge, or intent. Mr. Salame’s plea is an admission of his own guilt, not evidence of Ms. Bond’s state of mind or participation in any charged offense.”
The motion also requested the court include information related to Bond’s “contemporaneous divorce and custody proceedings,” arguing that though she and Salame were not married at the time of the alleged crime, the former FTX executive was not an “ordinary ‘individual’ donor” contributing to her campaign.
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The criminal case is one of the latest involving individuals tied to the defunct crypto exchange following its 2022 collapse. Salame, former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison were all sentenced to prison for their role in the misuse of customer funds and related charges.
Former congressman ordered to pay $35,000 over Kalshi bet
George Santos, a former New York House representative who was expelled from Congress in 2023, was ordered to pay a $17,500 civil monetary penalty and $17,570 in disgorgement from profits earned over bets placed on prediction markets platform Kalshi. The order from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) stemmed from Santos trading on event contracts betting on his appearance at the 2026 State of the Union address in Washington, DC.
“While buying and selling positions in this market, Santos posted on social media about his plans to attend or not attend the SOTU,” said the CFTC. “In his social media posts, Santos made a series of material misrepresentations and omissions about whether he would attend the SOTU. After these posts, the SOTU contract prices moved in a direction that was favorable to Santos’ positions which allowed him to make over $17,500.”
February X post about his State of the Union attendance. Source: George Santos
Santos is barred from trading on prediction market platforms for three years as part of the order. He was also previously sentenced to 87 months in prison for wire fraud and aggravated identity theft in 2025, but served only three months before his sentence was commuted by US President Donald Trump.
US solider accused of making $400,000 Polymarket bet seeks to dismiss charges
Gannon Ken Van Dyke is a US soldier who faces charges for allegedly making more than $400,000 on Polymarket event contracts using nonpublic information tied to a military operation involving the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January. He was involved in the operation removing Maduro, according to the US Justice Department, and allegedly used insider information to bet whether the Venezuelan president would be removed from power, leading to criminal charges in April.
In a Friday SDNY filing, Van Dyke’s legal team filed a 51-page memo in support of a motion to dismiss the indictment based on different legal theories, including that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) at the center of three of the charges was “ambiguous” in treating event contracts as “swaps.”
Although the CFTC under Chair Michael Selig has claimed that the agency has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets on the basis that event contracts are treated as “swaps,” Van Dyke’s lawyers said the lack of clarity was sufficient to dismiss some of the charges.
“If Congress, executive branch agencies, and courts all find the ‘swap’ definition ambiguous, how can ordinary citizens have fair notice that prediction market wagers are covered by the CEA?” said the filing. “They cannot.”
The case is expected to have significant implications for lawmakers and government officials using prediction markets. Trump’s teleprompter operator reportedly made more than $100,000 using Kalshi event contracts related to the president’s speeches.
Based on a schedule filed in June, Van Dyke is potentially looking at a trial beginning in late 2026 or early 2027. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges.
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The attacker working through Coldcard-generated keys is now emptying wallets worth a few thousand dollars each.
Galaxy Research flagged a third wave of sweeps early Sunday, roughly 208 bitcoin drained from 1,912 addresses between Friday midday and Saturday morning UTC.
That is just over a tenth of a bitcoin per victim. The July 30 opening wave averaged close to a full coin, 1,083 bitcoin from 1,196 addresses in 41 minutes.
Observed losses across all three waves now total 1,367 bitcoin, nearly $89 million, from 4,585 addresses.
Wave three sends each victim’s coins to its own destination rather than the handful of shared collector addresses that made the first two easy to map, and parks them in pay-to-witness-script-hash outputs, a format that can carry multisignature or timelock conditions, instead of the plain single-key outputs used before.
It batched an average of six victims into each sweep where wave one took exactly one at a time, and it scanned only the default derivation path, the standard branch of the key tree a wallet checks first, instead of testing several branches per seed.
Perhaps due to the quickly re-escalating tension in the Middle East, the cryptocurrency market has posted fresh losses over the past few hours, with BTC dropping to $62,000 after failing to reclaim the $63,000 support during the day.
XRP was not spared, as it just slipped below $1.05. The asset was rejected at $1.20 during the mid-July rally after the favorable US inflation data for June, and eventually lost the coveted $1.10 support. Now, it fights for the last line of defense before the bulls would have to defend the $1.00 zone.
Popular analyst EGRAG CRYPTO outlined the significance of the $1.05 level, calling it the ‘battlefield’ region. Although he noted earlier today that the cross-border token had managed to maintain that level, he acknowledged the predominantly bearish structure of lower highs on the 4-hour chart.
The short-term path of recovery would be a successful defense of $1.05 before XRP can bounce above $1.083 and eventually reclaim the $1.10 level, which now acts as resistance.
EGRAG laid out an even more promising road ahead for the asset if it manages to continue its recovery, with the “major price target” set at $1.30.
However, a decisive breakdown below $1.05 would essentially mean that XRP will head toward the notable liquidity zone at around $1.00, he warned.
Mikybull Crypto also believes XRP has the strength to stage a surprising comeback. The analyst claimed that the asset’s bullish reversal run is currently loading despite the negative outlook.
His long-term chart compares the current market structure with the one from two years ago when XRP was highly compressed at around $0.60. Once it broke out the upper boundary, though, it rocketed to a fresh all-time high within less than a year.
“Before the last run, I screamed for you to buy at a crazy discount. The opportunity is presenting again,” he said now.
History is not on XRP’s side at the moment, though, as August has been quite a painful month for the asset. As reported earlier today, the cross-border token was deep in the red in all four previous editions.
The post XRP Price Dips to ‘Battlefield’ Zone, but Analysts See Major Reversal Opportunity appeared first on CryptoPotato.
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