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Crypto World

The world cup turned Polymarket into a $5B market

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Polymarket upholds ‘No’ ruling in disputed Strategy Bitcoin sale market

The biggest sporting event on Earth has become the biggest liquidity event in prediction market history. Billions in tournament volume, a $45 billion June across the sector, one very expensive longshot trap, and a CFTC probe arriving right on schedule.

Summary

  • Polymarket processed about $5 billion in World Cup trading as the tournament drove prediction market volumes to record highs across the sector.
  • The expanded World Cup format and deeper liquidity pushed crypto based event markets into mainstream scale while attracting a large wave of first time users.
  • The surge in activity also brought regulatory scrutiny and raised questions over whether the new liquidity will remain after the tournament concludes.

Four years ago, during the Qatar World Cup, Polymarket processed a grand total of $138,000 in tournament bets. That is not a typo missing some zeros. One hundred thirty-eight thousand dollars, roughly the price of a nice car, across the entire biggest sporting event on the planet.

This summer, the same platform blew through $5 billion in World Cup trading before the knockout rounds finished forming, with tournament totals now estimated around $6.4 billion and climbing. The flagship winner market alone has turned over more volume than many mid-cap tokens see in a month. Across the whole prediction market sector, June closed at $44.8 billion in combined monthly volume, a 75% jump from May, and Bernstein analysts project World Cup wagering could top $10 billion by the July 19 final at MetLife Stadium. Measured against its own 2022 self, Polymarket’s World Cup business grew by a factor of more than forty thousand.

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Something changed between Qatar and now, and it was not football. The 2026 tournament has become the moment crypto-native prediction markets stopped being a curiosity and started operating at the scale of the industries they intend to eat. It has also, in the same six weeks, exposed exactly where the model creaks: a longshot problem hiding $1.6 billion of dubious positioning, a regulatory net closing from two directions, and an open question about what happens to all this liquidity on July 20.

The numbers, and why they are absurd

The tournament kicked off on June 11 with a format built for market makers: 48 teams instead of 32, 104 matches instead of 64, three host countries, and a brand-new Round of 32 that added an extra layer of binary, elimination-stakes events. Every match is a market. Every market is several: winner, draw, total goals, advancement. The expanded format nearly doubled the tradeable surface area of the world’s most-watched event.

The results by the numbers:

  • Polymarket’s World Cup-linked contracts passed $2 billion in the group stage, $3.3 billion days later, and roughly $6.4 billion at the latest count, against $138,000 for the entire 2022 tournament.
  • Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated rival, processed about $7.4 billion in World Cup trades, more than its entire March Madness, with its flagship winner market alone drawing over $832 million.
  • Combined June volume across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket’s new US-regulated exchange hit $44.8 billion, up 75% from May’s $25.66 billion. Kalshi grew 87% month over month to $31.5 billion; Polymarket did $14 billion across both venues, including $3.04 billion on the US platform.
  • Weekly sector volume peaked at a record $14.5 billion, with open interest holding at a record $1.6 billion for three consecutive weeks. Kalshi’s open interest alone crossed $1.16 billion.
  • Reports put Polymarket’s revenue run-rate at $1 billion annualized on World Cup flow.

Individual matches show how deep the liquidity runs. A group-stage fixture between Algeria and Austria, two mid-tier footballing nations, drew $2.82 million. England versus Panama drew $1.76 million even though Panama arrived as the weakest side in the field and left without scoring a goal. Even Paraguay versus Australia, a match with all the global glamour of a Tuesday, cleared $329,000. When dead rubbers between minnows clear six figures, the order book is no longer a novelty. It is a market with depth at every rung of the attention ladder, which is exactly what market makers need before committing balance sheet.

Pricing on the big question has stayed remarkably stable through the chaos. France leads the winner market at roughly 23% to 24% implied probability, with Argentina at 20% to 21%, a rematch scenario the finalist markets take seriously: France at 39% and Argentina at 38% to reach the July 19 final. Argentina has drawn about $81 million in winner-market volume, France $77 million, Portugal $76 million, Spain $68 million, and England $61 million.

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How the machine works, for the newcomers it just onboarded

Given how many of this tournament’s traders are first-timers, the mechanics deserve a plain-language pass, because they explain both the volume numbers and the regulatory fight.

A prediction market contract is a share that pays $1 if an outcome happens and nothing if it does not. France to win the World Cup trading at 24 cents means the market assigns France a 24% implied probability; buy at 24 cents and a French title returns $1 per share. Prices move with news, form, and money flow exactly like any order book, and because every share is a token settling on-chain, positions trade continuously until resolution. Polymarket runs on Polygon with markets denominated in USDC, and outcomes resolve through an oracle process, with the UMA optimistic oracle as the traditional backstop where disputes over real-world results get adjudicated by token-holder vote. Kalshi runs the same economic structure through a CFTC-regulated exchange with dollars instead of stablecoins.

The tradability is the entire difference from a sportsbook, and it is why volume comparisons flatter prediction markets. A bettor who backs France at a book locks the position until the final; a Polymarket trader might turn the same conviction over dozens of times, buying strength, selling wobbles, rotating into match markets and back. High turnover on stable open interest, precisely Polymarket’s tournament signature, is the fingerprint of trading behavior layered on top of betting behavior. It also means the platforms earn their status as information machines honestly in one respect: continuous two-sided pricing on live global events, updating in seconds, visible to anyone. During the group stage, Polymarket priced a draw as the most likely single outcome in Paraguay versus Australia at 42.5% while traditional books had Paraguay clearly favored, the kind of public disagreement between market structures that quants notice and harvest.

From election-night stunt to billion-dollar business

The tournament did not create Polymarket’s scale from nothing. It compounded an arc three cycles in the making.

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The platform’s first mainstream moment came with the 2024 US election, when its presidential market became a media fixture and its pricing beat several polling aggregates to the result. That visibility arrived with a compliance hangover: Polymarket had operated outside US jurisdiction since a 2022 CFTC settlement barred it from serving American users, and the election spotlight brought raids, investigations, and a long regulatory negotiation. The resolution came in 2025, when the platform acquired a regulated derivatives venue and resumed limited US operations through a compliant exchange, the entity now posting $3.04 billion monthly volumes as Polymarket US.

Kalshi ran the mirror-image path: US-regulated from birth, it fought the CFTC in court for the right to list election contracts, won, and then leveraged the precedent into sports-adjacent event contracts that state gaming regulators now contest. Its reported $1 billion funding round earlier in 2026 and its $31.5 billion June say the strategy found product-market fit at scale.

The World Cup is the first event both platforms entered at full institutional strength, regulated venues live, market-maker relationships mature, mobile products polished, and the $45 billion June is what that maturity looks like when the biggest audience on Earth shows up. For perspective on how completely the sector has outgrown its origins: the entire prediction market industry’s 2022 World Cup handle would not cover thirty seconds of this tournament’s average volume.

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The longshot trap: $1.6 billion of hope

Underneath the headline volume sits the tournament’s strangest statistic, and the one that says the most about who is actually trading. Roughly $1.6 billion, a quarter or more of Polymarket’s World Cup total, has been wagered on teams priced at 1% implied probability or less.

Think about what that means. Traders have committed nine figures to the proposition that sides the market gives essentially no chance will lift the trophy. Some of that is rational lottery-ticket buying, one-cent shares that pay a hundredfold if the miracle lands. Some is liquidity provision and hedging that looks stranger in aggregate than it is in detail. But a large share is the oldest pattern in betting: retail money chasing the thrill of the impossible payout, in a venue where the thrill is dressed up as trading.

Prediction market advocates have spent years arguing these venues are information machines, truth engines that price reality better than pundits. The longshot trap complicates the pitch. Markets in which a quarter of the money sits on near-impossible outcomes are not purely information machines. They are also entertainment products, and entertainment money behaves differently: it arrives for the event, it does not shop for edge, and it leaves when the confetti drops. Both things can be true at once, the sharp pricing at the top of the book and the lottery counter at the bottom, but the ratio between them decides what these platforms are when the World Cup is not on.

The user data leans the same direction. A Bitget Wallet study of 857,000 active Polymarket users found 60% had no prior on-chain trading history of any kind. Prediction markets are onboarding people crypto never reached, an achievement by any adoption metric, and those people are arriving to bet on football, not to discover decentralized finance.

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What the tournament proved about the rails

Strip out the froth and the infrastructure story is the strongest one here. Positions on Polymarket are tokens settling on-chain via Polygon, which means the tournament has doubled as a live stress test of whether blockchain rails can host institutional-scale event trading. The answer, six weeks in, is yes. You can buy France at 24% today, watch a shaky quarterfinal drop the price, and sell before the next whistle. Positions are tradeable instruments with a live order book, not slips waiting for settlement, and the distinction is precisely why turnover figures dwarf what a sportsbook handle would show for the same interest.

The flow data show the two market leaders running different races. Polymarket’s open interest has held roughly flat while volume spiked, the signature of heavy turnover, traders rotating in and out around every match. Kalshi’s open interest has climbed steadily, pointing to stickier positioning from a user base that skews more institutional and holds through events. Kalshi also entered the tournament with a war chest, having closed a reported $1 billion funding round earlier in 2026, and its $31.5 billion June says the money is being put to work against sportsbooks as much as against Polymarket.

Competition is arriving from inside crypto too. World, a Solana-based prediction market, went live inside the Phantom wallet during the tournament, using Chainlink oracles and taking direct aim at the duopoly, while ADI Predictstreet operates as FIFA’s own first official prediction market partner. The sector that spent 2024 as an election-night curiosity now has a governing-body partnership, a regulated US exchange, and venue competition on three chains. That maturation is happening alongside the industry’s broader mainstream moment at this tournament, with Kraken serving as FIFA’s first official crypto exchange partner across the same six weeks, a deal we examine in full in a companion feature.

Six weeks of price discovery, match by match

The aggregate numbers hide the part traders actually enjoyed: watching the market metabolize a football tournament in real time.

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The favorites’ pricing barely moved through six weeks of chaos, France oscillating between 23% and 24% and Argentina between 20% and 21%, a stability that says the market treated group-stage drama as noise around strong priors. The action was in the tails and the match markets. Cape Verde drawing with both Spain and Uruguay to escape Group H repriced an entire bracket path in minutes. DR Congo reaching their first knockout stage since 1974 sent their sub-1% title shares on the kind of hundredfold percentage ride that longshot buyers live for, right up until Harry Kane ended it with two goals in the final fifteen minutes. Panama, priced as the group’s doormat, performed exactly to market: three losses, zero goals, and $1.76 million traded on the England fixture anyway, proof that liquidity follows attention rather than quality.

The draw markets produced the tournament’s most interesting structural signal. Prediction market traders repeatedly priced draws as the most likely single outcome in tight fixtures, 42.5% in Paraguay versus Australia, 46.5% in Algeria versus Austria, while traditional books held moneyline favorites. Two market structures, two different opinions about the same ninety minutes, and a standing arbitrage question for anyone with accounts on both. Group-stage match markets settled into a reliable $500,000 to $2 million volume band regardless of the teams involved, which is the statistic that best captures what changed: four years ago, the entire tournament did $138,000; now that is a slow first half.

The quiet winners underneath the order book

Every trade in this boom runs on infrastructure that predates it, and the tournament has been a revenue and relevance event for the stack beneath the platforms.

Polygon carries Polymarket’s settlement, which means tens of millions of tournament transactions and billions in USDC transfer volume ran through a network that spent two years searching for a flagship consumer use case and found one wearing football boots. Circle benefits wherever the collateral pool grows, since every open position is USDC sitting on-chain. Chainlink’s oracle infrastructure gained a governing-body endorsement through ADI Predictstreet, FIFA’s own first official prediction market partner, and powers World, the Solana prediction market that launched inside Phantom mid-tournament to contest the duopoly on faster rails, one more front in the widening execution-layer contest between Solana and Ethereum. Even the losers of the platform war stand to inherit something: liquidity programs, market-making firms, and resolution tooling built for this tournament become sector infrastructure that any new entrant can rent.

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That is the pattern worth filing away. Prediction markets have become the rare crypto vertical whose growth mechanically feeds the base layers underneath it, stablecoin float, L2 throughput, oracle demand, without requiring anyone to believe a new narrative. The World Cup did not just make Polymarket bigger. It made the case that event markets are a durable consumer category for the chains that host them, which is why Solana wants in and why the next cycle of this fight will be fought partly on infrastructure costs.

The real opponent is DraftKings, not each other

Frame the tournament as Polymarket versus Kalshi and you miss the actual contest. The $2 billion-plus that crypto prediction markets processed in World Cup contracts is being measured in real time against sportsbook scale, and the next four weeks decide whether the platforms keep that capital or hand it back to DraftKings and FanDuel when the novelty fades.

The traditional books still dwarf the challengers on absolute handle; US regulated sportsbooks process tens of billions per year on football alone, with decades of brand, state licenses, and parlay products engineered for maximum hold. What prediction markets attack is the margin structure. A sportsbook builds roughly 4% to 6% vig into a standard two-way line and far more into parlays; a prediction market charges the spread plus small fees, with two-sided order flow compressing costs toward exchange levels. For a sharp bettor, the difference between negative-5% expected value at a book and near-zero at an exchange is the difference between a hobby and a career, which is why professional money migrated first.

The Mexico versus England Round of 16 fixture made a clean case study: a high-attention knockout tie where Polymarket’s pricing stayed tight under both retail flood and institutional size, the market-maker backbone absorbing volume without spreads blowing out. Passing liquidity tests like that, repeatedly, on the sport’s biggest stage, is how an exchange steals a customer segment that never comes back to paying vig. The books know it; their lobbying against event-contract sports markets in state legislatures is the sincerest compliment the sector has received.

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The structural irony is that prediction markets may win the comparison while losing the framing. The more their World Cup product resembles a better-priced sportsbook, the stronger the state regulators’ argument that it is one.

The regulators arrive at the party

A $5 billion-plus event was always going to draw the state’s attention, and it has, from two directions at once.

The federal track came first: the Wall Street Journal reported the CFTC has opened an investigation into Polymarket, landing just as the platform’s volumes peaked and barely a year after it resumed limited US operations through its regulated exchange. The probe’s scope remains unclear, which in practice means everything from market manipulation surveillance to the perimeter question of which event contracts count as legitimate derivatives.

The state track is broader. More than a dozen state-level authorities have taken legal action against Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of offering unlicensed sports betting to residents. The legal theory war here is existential for the sector: if a World Cup winner contract is a financial derivative, the CFTC owns it and federal preemption shields the platforms; if it is a sports bet, thirty-plus state gaming commissions get a vote, and the compliance map fragments overnight. Consumer protection advocates have pushed the second reading hard, and the tournament’s own success is their best exhibit. It is difficult to argue that $1.6 billion of one-percent longshots is hedging activity.

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The jurisdictional map adds a third layer of mess, because this World Cup spans three host countries with three different rulebooks. American users navigate the federal-versus-state fight described above. Canadian provinces run their own gaming monopolies with their own views on event contracts. Mexican users face a framework that barely contemplates the product category at all. A tournament marketed as borderless is being traded through one of the most fragmented compliance environments in consumer finance, and every platform’s growth team is effectively running fifty different products wearing one interface.

The platforms are betting that regulated structure wins the argument, and the irony is thick enough to trade: prediction markets are now the subject of the kind of binary, high-stakes, externally resolved event they would normally list. Traders being traders, they occasionally do list it. The outcome will land on an industry already conditioned by this cycle’s macro whiplash, where risk assets have traded like leveraged tech exposure and volume booms have repeatedly decoupled from underlying token prices.

The question that matters: July 20

Every liquidity boom tied to a calendar event carries the same asterisk, and this one expires at full time on July 19.

The bear case writes itself. Fan-adjacent crypto products have a documented post-tournament decay pattern; volumes tied to the Qatar cycle collapsed within weeks of the final. If June’s $44.8 billion was mostly football, July’s number tells us so immediately, and the sector’s valuation narratives, including that billion-dollar Polymarket run-rate, deflate with it. Sixty percent of those 857,000 users have no other on-chain footprint to return to. They came for the World Cup. The World Cup ends.

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The bull case is quieter but has data behind it. The June figures functioned as a stress test, and the infrastructure passed: record open interest held for three straight weeks, spreads on marquee matches stayed tight under institutional size, and non-sports volume across Kalshi and Polymarket reached $3.6 billion during the same window, meaning roughly a third of the boom had nothing to do with football at all. Elections, Fed decisions, crypto prices, and cultural events all inherited liquidity and market-making muscle built for the tournament. If even a modest fraction of the new cohort stays, the World Cup becomes the sector’s customer-acquisition event of the decade, acquired at zero marketing cost.

The honest position is that nobody knows the retention number, and the retention number is the entire question. What the tournament has already settled is capacity: prediction markets can absorb global-event liquidity at sportsbook scale on crypto rails without breaking. Whether they can keep it is the trade still open on the board.

Full time approaches

The 2026 World Cup will crown a champion at MetLife Stadium on July 19, and the winner market says it will probably be France or Argentina, though a combined $1.6 billion in longshot money is praying otherwise. For the prediction market industry, the trophy has arguably been lifted already: a forty-thousand-fold improvement on its 2022 self, a June that redefined the sector’s ceiling, and proof that on-chain event trading can operate at the scale of the businesses it wants to replace. The costs of that visibility, a federal probe, a state-by-state legal siege, and a user base of unknown loyalty, all come due in the quiet weeks after the final whistle. The tournament turned Polymarket into a $5 billion market. The off-season decides whether it stays one.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or betting advice. Prediction markets carry significant financial and regulatory risk, and availability varies by jurisdiction. Always do your own research. Information current as of July 3, 2026.

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CLARITY Act gains first major law enforcement endorsement

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CLARITY Act hits its final window on May 21

The National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives has endorsed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, giving the crypto market structure bill its first formal public backing from a major law enforcement group.

Summary

  • NOBLE became the first major law enforcement group to formally back the CLARITY Act.
  • The endorsement challenges warnings from police and prosecutor groups over Section 604 language.
  • The bill still needs Senate floor time and 60 votes before reaching final passage.

Journalist Eleanor Terrett reported the endorsement in a July 2 post on X, citing a letter sent to Senate leaders John Thune and Chuck Schumer.

NOBLE National President Reneé Hall signed the letter. According to Terrett, the group said the bill “contains several provisions” that could give law enforcement new tools while keeping existing criminal authorities in place. The endorsement arrives as Senate talks continue over crime, oversight, and developer protections in the bill.

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Endorsement breaks from other groups

NOBLE’s position differs from earlier warnings by several police and prosecutor groups. Four U.S. law enforcement organizations raised concerns that Section 604 may weaken crypto crime investigations. Their concerns centered on the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act language inside the CLARITY Act.

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Section 604 would protect some non-custodial developers and software providers from automatic money transmitter treatment. Critics argue that the language may make it harder to trace illicit finance in decentralized systems. Supporters say the section protects software builders who do not control user funds and should not be treated like banks or brokers.

DOJ pushback adds to debate

The debate widened after the Department of Justice pushed back on claims that the bill would create broad enforcement gaps. As crypto.news reported, the DOJ challenged law enforcement claims and said criticism of the bill’s crime-fighting language was not accurate.

NOBLE’s letter now gives supporters another argument as they seek Senate votes. The group said the bill does not change federal criminal tools used in money laundering, unlicensed money transmission, conspiracy, sanctions, and other cases. That point directly addresses one of the main objections raised by other law enforcement groups.

Senate clock remains tight

The endorsement comes as the bill faces a narrow window in the Senate. The CLARITY Act’s path depends on a pre-August vote because the chamber has limited floor time before recess. If the bill misses that window, its realistic path could move into 2027.

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The bill also needs 60 votes on the Senate floor. As previously reported, the Senate math requires Democratic support because Republicans cannot pass the measure alone. That makes law enforcement concerns important, especially for senators focused on illicit finance, consumer protection, and national security.

Industry keeps pressure on lawmakers

Industry groups are also pressing senators to act. Stand With Crypto urged supporters in a July 2 post on X to call for a vote when the Senate returns from recess on July 13. The group argued that delay could push builders, jobs, and capital outside the U.S.

The CLARITY Act would create a market structure framework for digital assets and define roles for the SEC and CFTC. The bill would classify digital assets, set registration paths, and add compliance rules for crypto firms.

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Defendant Moves to Dismiss NY Case Claiming Ownership of 39,069 BTC Wallets

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Crypto Breaking News

A pseudonymous defendant has asked a New York court to dismiss a lawsuit seeking ownership of 39,069 dormant Bitcoin addresses, arguing that Bitcoin addresses are simply public data and cannot be sued under the state’s jurisdictional rules.

In a motion filed Thursday, the defendant—using the name “John Doe 33”—contends that the plaintiff’s theory of “finding” and claiming abandoned property fails because a Bitcoin address is not a legal person or entity. The filing also challenges the effort to treat on-chain addresses as recoverable under New York lost-property law.

Key takeaways

  • The motion argues that Bitcoin addresses are data strings that cannot be the subject of a lawsuit, rather than legal entities that courts can exercise jurisdiction over.
  • The plaintiffs’ lost-property claim is framed as legally defective because the addresses were always publicly visible on the blockchain.
  • Even if ownership were determined, recovering the Bitcoin would still require access to the corresponding private keys.
  • Blockchain-linked reporting cited in the case suggests the defendant may control a long-dormant wallet holding roughly 5,000 BTC.

Why the court fight centers on “addresses” rather than keys

The lawsuit, filed in May by plaintiff “Noah Doe” along with two Wyoming-based LLCs identified as ABC Company and XYZ Company, targets what it describes as abandoned Bitcoin associated with 39,069 dormant addresses. The plaintiffs allege the Bitcoin tied to those addresses is abandoned property, which they reported to the New York Police Department before asserting claims under New York lost-property law.

In the motion to dismiss, John Doe 33 argues the complaint is legally defective for a threshold reason: Bitcoin addresses are not “persons” or legal entities and therefore cannot be sued. The filing further claims that the plaintiffs cannot establish that an address was “found,” as required by lost-property concepts, because the relevant address information has been publicly viewable on the blockchain since the coins were received.

For investors and builders, the procedural dispute matters because it goes beyond a single wallet list. It asks whether traditional legal frameworks for identifying owners and claiming property can map onto the blockchain’s structure—where addresses are public identifiers and control is enforced through private keys rather than through legal status.

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The alleged “abandoned” wallets include famous names

The complaint lists 39,069 Bitcoin addresses that include wallets widely associated with well-known Bitcoin labels, such as addresses attributed to Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto and to the Mt. Gox hacker. The addresses collectively are reported—via an estimate attributed to Sani, founder of Bitcoin analytics platform Timechain Index—to hold roughly 3.7 million BTC, valued at about $234 billion at the time of that estimate.

That scale is a key reason the case has attracted attention. A ruling could influence how courts treat claims that attempt to convert blockchain identifiers into claimable “property” within existing state laws.

At the same time, the filing acknowledges a practical hurdle that remains independent of any jurisdictional debate: even if the court were to rule on ownership of the assets associated with the addresses, the plaintiffs would still need the private keys to move any Bitcoin. Without those keys, the Bitcoin remains inaccessible regardless of how a court characterizes ownership or abandonment.

Defendant says they control a long-dormant wallet

Separate from the legal arguments, the motion’s credibility is bolstered—at least in part—by blockchain data cited in public commentary. According to an X post on Friday by Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, blockchain information suggests John Doe 33 controls a wallet that received 5,000 BTC in April 2014 and has remained untouched for more than 12 years.

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Thorn indicated the wallet’s current value is above $300 million at prevailing market prices, and he characterized the defendant as a “real holder” with meaningful standing rather than a bystander who could be targeted without any real ability to defend the claim.

Thorn also wrote that the filing helped avoid what had been described as a “near-certain” default judgment, while simultaneously challenging jurisdictional and statutory defects raised by the plaintiffs’ approach.

Dormancy data underscores why recovery questions persist

Beyond the specific defendants and plaintiffs, the broader question of what happens to lost or inaccessible Bitcoin continues to drive legal scrutiny. Bitbo data cited in the reporting indicates that about 3.5 million BTC, valued around $215 billion, have been dormant for at least 10 years, while another 6.6 million coins—worth roughly $406 billion—have been dormant for over five years.

Those figures highlight a persistent imbalance in how on-chain “time” translates to legal rights. Blockchain dormancy may signal lost control, but it does not automatically yield a mechanism for third parties to access private keys. This case, therefore, tests whether legal systems can bridge the gap between public address records and the cryptographic controls that govern ownership in practice.

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For readers tracking regulation and legal precedent in crypto, the important development is not only who named which addresses, but how courts handle the mismatch between legal concepts like “found property” and the blockchain reality that addresses are public labels—while control is determined privately.

As the New York case progresses, the key questions to watch are whether the court agrees that addresses cannot be sued as entities, and—if the case survives procedural challenges—what standard it may apply to abandonment and recoverability when private keys are necessary to access any funds.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen invests in startup tied to senator Gillibrand’s son

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Ripple unlocks RLUSD access across 40 chains via Wormhole bridge

Chris Larsen has reportedly backed a derivatives startup founded by the son of US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand as lawmakers continue negotiating the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill expected to shape the industry’s regulatory framework.

Summary

  • Chris Larsen reportedly invested in a startup founded by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s son as CLARITY Act negotiations continue.
  • The reported investment comes while lawmakers debate ethics rules tied to the crypto market structure bill.
  • Senate Republicans are seeking Democratic support to pass the CLARITY Act before the legislative window narrows.

According to a Thursday report by Politico, Ripple co-founder and executive chair Chris Larsen was among the investors supporting the American Perpetuals Exchange Corp. (APEC), a derivatives platform founded by Theodore Gillibrand. The report said the company raised roughly $30 million, with most individual investors contributing between $5,000 and $10,000, though Larsen’s exact investment amount was not disclosed.

The reported investment comes while Senator Gillibrand remains involved in Senate negotiations over ethics provisions tied to the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. The proposed legislation is expected to affect digital asset companies operating in the United States, including Ripple.

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Larsen remains closely watched by the XRP community

Separately, Larsen has remained under close observation by XRP investors because of his large cryptocurrency holdings and past wallet activity. Blockchain data previously showed wallets linked to the Ripple executive becoming active before notable political and market events.

Crypto.news reported in May that Larsen controls an estimated 2.58 billion XRP across eight wallets tracked on XRPScan, making him one of the largest known individual XRP holders. The publication also noted that dormant wallets linked to Larsen resumed activity in January 2025, transferring more than $109 million worth of XRP to exchanges including Coinbase, Bitstamp and Bybit. 

Later, blockchain investigator ZachXBT reported that Larsen-linked addresses moved another 50 million XRP, with roughly $140 million eventually reaching exchanges while XRP traded near record highs.

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In the meantime, Democratic lawmakers have continued pressing Republicans to include stronger ethics language in the CLARITY Act, citing President Donald Trump’s connections to the cryptocurrency industry.

The Senate has only a limited window to complete work on the CLARITY Act before lawmakers leave Washington again. Following the Independence Day recess, senators are scheduled to return on July 13 before another month-long state work period begins in August, narrowing the available time to pass the legislation before the US election period is expected to slow congressional activity.

Republican lawmakers, who hold a narrow Senate majority, have indicated they expect the bill to pass the chamber during July. Senator Cynthia Lummis said in June that negotiations were still covering ethics provisions, decentralized finance, and illicit finance issues. Because the legislation requires 60 votes in the Senate, Republican lawmakers will need Democratic support for the measure to advance.

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$1.9B Bitcoin options expiry tests BTC’s $60K recovery

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$1.9B Bitcoin options expiry tests BTC’s $60K recovery

Bitcoin options traders faced another large expiry on July 3, with 31,000 BTC contracts settling at a notional value of about $1.9 billion. 

Summary

  • Bitcoin options expiry keeps $60K support in focus as traders demand short-term downside protection.
  • Ether options show heavier put demand, pointing to stronger hedging needs around the $1,700 area.
  • Weak ETF flows and cautious derivatives positioning keep crypto’s Q3 outlook under pressure.

GreeksLive said in a July 3 update that the batch had a put-call ratio of 0.7 and a maximum pain point of $61,000.

The same update showed 135,000 ETH options expiring with a notional value of about $230 million. Ether’s put-call ratio stood at 1.29, while its maximum pain level was $1,650. The higher put ratio showed stronger demand for downside protection in ETH than in BTC.

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Bitcoin reclaims $60K, but risks remain

Bitcoin moved back above the $60,000 level this week, but options data still showed a defensive market. GreeksLive said BTC gamma exposure was concentrated around $60,000, while ETH gamma exposure was centered near $1,700. Those zones may keep short-term price action tied to key strike levels.

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In a separate market note, GreeksLive said BTC’s 25-delta skew remained negative across short-term maturities. The firm said puts continued to trade at a premium to calls, with the strongest demand focused on near-term contracts. That suggests traders are hedging immediate downside risk rather than changing long-term expectations.

ETF flows add pressure to sentiment

The cautious options setup follows several weeks of weak spot demand. Bitcoin recently reclaimed $60,000 after softer U.S. macro expectations and easing oil prices helped risk assets recover. However, the same report noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows continued to weigh on the rebound.

Previously, crypto.news reported that Bitcoin struggled to break above $60,000 as options flows and ETF selling kept buyers cautious. The report said U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1.79 billion in weekly outflows, their largest withdrawal of 2026.

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Earlier expiries showed the same pattern

The July 3 expiry was smaller than last week’s end-of-quarter event, when BTC and ETH faced about $11 billion in expiring options. That larger settlement kept the $60,000 to $62,000 BTC range under close watch as traders tracked hedging flows around major strikes.

As previously reported, another June expiry put the same $60K support zone in focus. GreeksLive said at the time that downside dealer exposure was concentrated near $60,000 to $62,000. The latest data shows that level remains important even after BTC’s mild recovery.

Q3 outlook stays defensive

GreeksLive said in its July 3 post that the crypto market’s Q3 outlook remained weak as attention shifted toward U.S. stocks, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and tokenized U.S. stock products. The firm also said Bitcoin’s “long-term downtrend has not yet ended,” pointing to selling pressure from large holders and ETFs.

CoinGlass options data also showed total BTC options open interest falling after the large quarterly expiry. Lower open interest can reduce market depth in options, but it does not remove hedging pressure when traders keep paying for puts.

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Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Ethereum price targets $1,800 after rare TD buy signal

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Ethereum spot ETF net inflow, source: SoSoValue

Ethereum price traded near $1,715 on July 3, according to crypto.news price data, after rising more than 6% over 24 hours. 

Summary

  • Ethereum reclaimed $1,700 as ETF inflows returned, but exchange netflows still warn of selling pressure.
  • Monthly TD Sequential signals suggest seller exhaustion, while MACD and RSI show early recovery momentum.
  • Binance withdrawal spikes point to accumulation, but rising open interest keeps volatility risk elevated.

The move pushed ETH back above the $1,700 area, a level traders have watched closely after weeks of selling pressure.

The rebound came as U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs returned to inflows. On July 2, spot Ethereum ETFs recorded total net inflows of $29.08 million, according to SoSoValue data. BlackRock’s ETHA led the group with $29.74 million in net inflows, while Grayscale’s ETHE recorded outflows of $2.75 million.

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Ethereum spot ETF net inflow, source: SoSoValue
Ethereum spot ETF net inflow, source: SoSoValue

The token had already been eyeing a $1,700 breakout after July 1 ETF inflows returned. That earlier shift helped ease pressure around the $1,500 support region, but ETH still needed a stronger move above $1,700 to improve its short-term chart.

The next area to watch is $1,800. A clean move above that level could show that buyers are gaining control after the recent drawdown. Failure to hold $1,700 may return focus to $1,650 and then the lower support region near $1,500.

Ethereum Technical indicators improve

Ethereum’s short-term indicators are showing better momentum. The MACD histogram is positive near 19.33, while the MACD line sits around -49.01 and above the signal line near -68.34. That confirms the recent bullish crossover has gained strength.

The broader signal is not fully bullish yet because both MACD lines remain below the zero line. This means downside pressure has eased, but the token has not confirmed a full trend reversal. Traders usually look for MACD follow-through toward the zero line before calling a stronger recovery.

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Ethereum (ETH) price chart, source: crypto.news
Ethereum (ETH) price chart, source: crypto.news

The RSI also improved. It stood near 51.85, above its moving average near 38.12. This move above 50 shows buyers are starting to regain control after a weak June.

Crypto analyst Ali Charts said the token has printed a monthly TD Sequential buy signal. In his view, the signal suggests seller exhaustion on a higher timeframe. He also said ETH is approaching a long-term support area near $1,100, which he described as the bottom boundary of Ethereum’s multi-year channel.

Ali Charts pointed to $3,000 as a mid-range recovery target if that lower channel holds. He also placed the broader channel ceiling near $5,000. Those levels are long-term technical targets, not short-term price calls.

ETH/BTC setup draws attention

Ethereum’s performance against Bitcoin is also drawing attention. Crypto Rover said an ETH/BTC golden cross is forming, with the 50-week moving average moving toward a cross above the 100-week moving average. He said the last similar signal in 2021 came before ETH outperformed Bitcoin.

That setup matters because ETH has lagged Bitcoin during the broader market decline. A stronger ETH/BTC pair would show that capital is rotating back toward Ethereum rather than only following Bitcoin’s rebound.

Derivatives data also shows rising activity. According to Coinglass data, ETH volume rose 14.48% to $44.74 billion, while open interest increased 10.64% to $24.54 billion. Options volume climbed 30.19% to $1.41 billion, and options open interest rose 6.67% to $4.43 billion.

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Rising open interest can support stronger price moves when buyers lead the market. It can also raise liquidation risk if leveraged positions build too quickly. For that reason, the current derivatives setup points to more volatility rather than a clean bullish trend.

On-chain signals remain mixed

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said Binance ETH withdrawal transactions hit their highest level in three years. Binance reportedly logged more than 166,000 withdrawal transactions in one day as ETH rebounded from the $1,500 area.

Exchange withdrawals can point to accumulation when users move coins into self-custody. They can also show funds moving into DeFi for yield. Darkfost said some withdrawals may also reflect confusion around MiCA rules that took effect on July 1, even though withdrawals were not frozen.

Ethereum (ETH) exchange withdrawing transactions, source: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost
Ethereum (ETH) exchange withdrawing transactions, source: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost

Another CryptoQuant analyst, PelinayPA, gave a more cautious reading. The analyst said Binance ETH exchange netflow remained positive at +12,938 ETH, meaning more ETH was moving into the exchange than leaving it. Positive netflow can create selling risk because coins on exchanges are easier to sell.

That contrast keeps the short-term outlook balanced. Withdrawal transactions suggest some users may be accumulating. Positive netflow and rising open interest suggest selling pressure and leverage have not disappeared.

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Institutional activity adds support

Ethereum also has support from corporate and institutional activity. As crypto.news reported, Ethereum Institutional launched with backing from BitMine, SharpLink, Joe Lubin, and other contributors to support adoption by banks, asset managers, custodians, and financial firms.

BitMine has continued building its Ethereum treasury. As previously reported, BitMine added 27,084 ETH, lifting its holdings to more than 5.7 million ETH, or about 4.7% of Ethereum’s supply.

SharpLink has also kept buying during weakness. The company bought another 10,000 ETH for $16.1 million as Ethereum tested lower support.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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BTSE debuts regulated crypto trading platform in Indonesia

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BTSE debuts regulated crypto trading platform in Indonesia

BTSE has officially entered Indonesia’s regulated crypto market through the launch of BTSE Indonesia after completing the rebranding of local exchange NVX.

Summary

  • BTSE has launched a regulated cryptocurrency exchange in Indonesia through a joint venture and the rebranding of NVX.
  • The OJK license allows the platform to offer IDR deposits, withdrawals, trading pairs, and other regulated digital asset services.
  • The launch comes as Indonesia continues tightening oversight of its cryptocurrency sector with new compliance rules for market participants.

According to an official announcement issued on July 3, the new platform has been established as a joint venture between BTSE Group and PT Aset Kripto Internasional, combining BTSE’s trading infrastructure with local operations focused on customer growth, partnerships, marketing, and sales.

Operating under a license issued by Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority (OJK), BTSE Indonesia is authorized to function as a Digital Financial Assets and Crypto Assets Trading Operator (PAKD). The approval places the exchange among the limited number of regulated entities permitted to offer cryptocurrency trading services in the country while complying with anti-money laundering requirements and customer asset protection rules.

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With the regulatory approval in place, BTSE Indonesia can work with Indonesian banks and payment providers to support Indonesian rupiah (IDR) deposits, withdrawals, currency conversions, and IDR trading pairs. The company said the license also creates a path to introduce additional regulated products, including futures trading, subject to rules issued by Indonesian authorities.

Under the partnership, BTSE Group will provide the exchange’s trading engine, liquidity, and underlying technology, while the Indonesian entity will manage local commercial operations using its market knowledge and domestic business relationships.

“Indonesia has everything it takes to be Asia’s next major crypto hub; the population, the demand, and now the regulatory framework. What it needs now is the right combination of global infrastructure and local expertise. That’s exactly what this joint venture delivers,” said Jeff Mei, Chief Operating Officer of BTSE Group.

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According Stephanie Kusnadi, Chief Strategy Officer of BTSE Indonesia, added the integration with BTSE gives the company access to global exchange technology while allowing it to continue operating as a platform built around local regulatory requirements and user needs.

Indonesia continues tightening crypto oversight

The launch comes as Indonesia continues introducing new rules for its digital asset industry. In June, the OJK issued Financial Services Authority Regulation No. 6 of 2026, requiring social media influencers who recommend cryptocurrencies and other digital financial assets to obtain competency certification unless they already hold another qualifying license.

Under the same regulation, influencers may promote only digital assets listed on authorized exchanges, while promotional campaigns must be conducted through licensed financial services businesses that remain responsible for the content. The new requirements place additional compliance obligations on digital asset firms operating in Indonesia’s regulated market.

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Why is Cardano (ADA) Up 15% in a Week?

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Last month, Cardano’s ADA collapsed below $0.14, the lowest level since the end of 2020. Meanwhile, its market capitalization briefly plummeted to roughly $5 billion, leaving the asset temporarily out of crypto’s top 20 club.

The bulls, though, managed to halt the free fall and even stage an impressive comeback. Here’s what happened and the possible catalysts behind the resurgence.

Green Week for ADA

As of press time, the token is worth almost $0.17, representing a 17% increase over the past 7 days. Perhaps the most evident reason pushing ADA higher is the broader market rebound following de-escalation news out of the Middle East.

Bitcoin (BTC) soared to $62,000, while Ethereum (ETH) surged past $1,700 amid reports that Iran and the USA are set to hold the next round of direct talks in the third week of July after the funeral of the supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

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Another catalyst could be the excitement surrounding a Cardano upgrade scheduled to go live on July 6. Namely, this is the RealFi Phase 1 Testnet, described as “the first public step toward next-generation stablecoin infrastructure” on the project.

“Crypto’s clearest success story has scaled as money. But not as capital. Hundreds of billions of dollars sit idle in stablecoins: No utility. No impact on the real economy. We think that’s a problem worth solving – and the Testnet is where we start. During Phase 1, participants can explore the platform, use its core features, and share feedback that will directly shape the protocol. This is collaborative infrastructure-building in public, and we want you involved,” the announcement reads.

Speaking about the upcoming effort was Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, who called it “the largest upgrade” in the project’s history.

Numerous analysts noted ADA’s revival, arguing it has more fuel left to post further gains. X user Sssebi claimed the token “is on fire” and envisioned a short-term pump to $0.20, while Nehal predicted a jump to $0.23, provided the price holds above $0.16.

Not so Fast

ADA’s recovery shouldn’t be seen as a guaranteed start of a new bull run, as the crypto market remains quite unstable and vulnerable to another severe pullback.

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The asset’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) reinforces the bearish outlook. The technical analysis tool, which ranges from 0 to 100, has risen above 70, indicating that ADA is in overbought territory and due for a possible correction. Conversely, ratios below 30 are considered buying opportunities.

ADA RSI
ADA RSI, Source: RSI Hunter

The post Why is Cardano (ADA) Up 15% in a Week? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Perceptron is turning idle bandwidth into AI training data

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Perceptron is turning idle bandwidth into AI training data

The artificial intelligence sector is currently dealing with a severe training data bottleneck, especially as centralized technology monopolies are locking out early stage developers from high-quality information pipelines. Decentralized data infrastructure platform Perceptron is trying to address this structural bottleneck by deploying a decentralized infrastructure layer that crowdsources web information through everyday user devices.

Summary

  • Perceptron is using idle consumer bandwidth to collect publicly available web data and provide lower cost AI training datasets.
  • The platform says its network spans more than 150 countries and rewards contributors while verifying data quality before it is supplied to enterprise clients.
  • Perceptron has launched a $10 million AI Data Fund to help developers access data infrastructure and accelerate the development of AI models.

Modern day media is entirely focused on highlighting how leading names in the artificial intelligence space are constantly deploying next-generation hardware systems to buff up their raw computing power. But one of the least talked about operational constraints is the quality of the training data that makes up the core foundation of any functional AI model.

The problem is that with the vast majority of open-web content already thoroughly harvested, aggressive corporate control over public application programming interfaces has locked the remaining foundations of dataset collection behind exorbitant multi-million dollar paywalls. It has essentially become a prohibitively expensive exclusive privilege for a handful of massive tech monopolies.

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For the tech giants that are currently leading the AI race, securing these high cost information pipelines aren’t much of a financial challenge, but what about the underfunded innovators? Without the necessary budgets, early-stage startups are left struggling to build competitive products.

“OpenAI pays approximately $60 million to $100 million per year to companies like Reddit and Twitter in order to be able to access data through APIs,” Perceptron Co-Founder & CEO, Peter Anthony told crypto.news during a recent interview. 

“Many new AI projects out there don’t have budgets to be able to spend $60 million to $100 million to be able to access data. If you build the best model in the world, it’s pretty useless if it doesn’t have access to good quality data. You could be the smartest kid at school, but if you’re not able to access any books, you don’t really have very much information to present.”

Anthony realized that this market asymmetry leaves room for alternative infrastructure that would serve the independent market segment, which eventually led him to co-found Perceptron, a platform which plans on using idle consumer bandwidth to solve “the data bottleneck problem” AI is suffering from right now.

“The majority of the world’s data has already been accessed and scraped, but there’s a lot of data that’s kind of hidden behind different places that are not yet accessible, so we’re gathering data and positioning ourselves to be able to provide data for AI companies at a reduced cost,” Anthony explained.

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Harvesting the idle bandwidth

But what is this idle bandwidth that Perceptron plans to leverage? Anthony explained that this is the unrecognized economic asset that everyday users constantly produce through routine digital browsing, only to watch major corporations extract and profit from it.

“Right now, every time you and I use the internet on our phones, our computers, we’re generating data. That data gets collected, packaged into massive datasets by companies like Google, and sold for millions, sometimes billions of dollars. Yet you and I never see a cent of that value.”

What Perceptron has done is to completely flip this extractive model on its head. They have built a network spanning more than 150 countries comprising roughly 800,000 nodes, and these nodes are powered by individual users who are simply running a browser extension on Chrome or an application on their Android devices.

While these endpoint installations don’t scrape private digital files or provide the firm with sensitive personal telemetry, it instead secures localized geographic perspectives, which Anthony described as “different vantage points” on the open web, which can then be extracted in small pieces and combined into one meaningful dataset.

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“It’s very important that we focus on the fact that it’s not using individuals’ data, it’s not tapping into your own personal data and information, but let’s say right now you’re in Malawi. When you’re looking at a particular website, I could go and look at the same website, but chances are, because I’m in Dubai, we’re going to see a different kind of set of results. All we’re gaining from this situation is being able to use your computer to look at something like a normal web page, or whatever it might be.”

To illustrate, Anthony noted that if a corporate client requires a dataset of healthcare-related social media posts from the US, Perceptron can coordinate across its global node mesh to extract individual public posts without interfacing with restrictive enterprise APIs. 

Because this data is already freely accessible to the public via any standard web browser, routing the collection through individual terminal nodes legally sidesteps commercial paywalls. Once these minor data packets are retrieved, the network transfers the unrefined data back to a centralized server where specialized artificial intelligence models scrub and audit the information for quality control.

“By doing this, we can cut down the cost significantly that is currently being charged by a lot of the big centralized companies like Google.”

Powered by an economic loop that incentivizes quality network participants

The next question is why would anyone volunteer their hardware to a network like this, and the answer is straightforward, a shared value loop ensuring that these nodes earn points for their passive connectivity that are scheduled to convert into native crypto tokens down the line.

According to Anthony, this distributed model ”will enable them to earn points” that act as a direct metric of their network contribution, and therefore “whenever there’s revenue generated by the company, tokens will get fed back into the ecosystem” to sustain a cyclic economic loop.

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“There will also be tokens set aside that are used for buying back tokens,” he added.

However, not everyone running a node essentially qualifies for consistent rewards, as there’s the ever-present challenge of quality control, which can compromise dataset integrity if left unchecked.

Perceptron addresses this by routing gathered packets back to a centralized server, where automated algorithms systematically evaluate the inputs against target benchmarks before releasing any compensation.

Further, Anthony said that the startup recently acquired a company specializing in transaction and payment verification software to structurally automate this validation process.

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To further engage network participants while also driving the creation of data sets, Perceptron also plans to launch a structured Data Questing platform, which will allow contributors to turn active human effort into unique training inputs.

“We aim to effectively be able to build datasets and create datasets that are currently not available through centralized processes,” Anthony added.

The end goal

Over the long haul, Anthony said he would like to see the network transition to a business intelligence-focused model that is able to provide deep-layer analytics for enterprise clients. 

“The difference is that traditional datasets are static, they’re collected once and quickly become outdated. But there’s an enormous amount of data being generated every time you interact with anything online, and right now, most of it is simply going to waste,” Anthony said.

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“One single server trying to monitor all these different users can’t really gather meaningful intelligence at that scale. What we need is a shift toward distributed business intelligence, so we can actually improve services across things like e-commerce, trading, and much more.”

Perceptron has also launched a $10 million AI Data Fund, through which the platform expects to fund independent developers and support the deployment of “actual projects that are providing real services.” Under the terms of the program, selected engineering teams receive five weeks of dedicated data infrastructure assistance and up to 5 TB of real-world data free of charge to accelerate the optimization of early-stage AI models.

“The goal is to support projects as they grow and their data requirements increase. We can become one of their go-to providers, it’s both an investment in the broader ecosystem and a way for us to build consistent, long-term revenue,” Anthony noted.

As of publication time, Anthony said Perceptron is already actively supplying diverse data products to a variety of commercial enterprises. The network provides extensive image datasets to text-to-video generative platforms, including a company called Everlyn AI, to train models to accurately synthesize visual content.

Beyond that, the project is also moving past standard image compilation, as the platform has entered the sentiment analysis sector by tracking public discourse across Twitter, YouTube, and digital asset markets. Analyzing this public sentiment helps crypto firms and exchanges build tracking tools that give early signals to preempt sudden price swings.

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XRP price climbs as Supertrend buy signal hints at 14% rally

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XRP price 1-day chart showing a breakout above a month-long descending trendline as the Supertrend flips bullish and price approaches resistance near $1.12.

XRP price has climbed to a three-day high after Ripple’s European expansion and a fresh Supertrend buy signal revived bullish sentiment.

Summary

  • XRP price climbed to a three-day high as Ripple’s European expansion and stronger market sentiment boosted buying.
  • A breakout above a month-long downtrend and a fresh Supertrend buy signal strengthened the bullish outlook.
  • Short liquidation clusters above $1.11 could fuel further gains, while $1.05 remains a key support level.

According to data from crypto.news, XRP (XRP) price rose as much as 3% to an intraday high of $1.11 on July 3, extending its recovery from around $1.02 on July 1. The latest rebound follows Ripple’s regulatory progress in Europe, improving macro sentiment, and a bullish technical reversal that has encouraged buyers to return after weeks of sustained selling pressure. 

Since July 1, the market has continued to price in the company’s European expansion after Ripple Payments launched under preliminary Crypto-Asset Service Provider approval through the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework.

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The development arrived just as some competing platforms scaled back parts of their European offerings to comply with MiCA rules, strengthening Ripple’s position in one of crypto’s fastest-growing regulated markets.

At the same time, investors largely dismissed concerns surrounding Ripple’s monthly 1 billion XRP escrow release after recognizing that most of the unlocked tokens are traditionally returned to escrow rather than sold into the market.

Bitcoin’s stabilization above the $61,000 area has also provided a more supportive backdrop for altcoins after weeks of heavy selling pressure. Risk appetite improved further as easing geopolitical tensions helped push crude oil prices to multi-month lows while softer U.S. economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin easing monetary policy later this year.

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These macro developments have encouraged investors to rotate back into higher-beta digital assets after June’s defensive positioning.

Technical breakout puts $1.12 and $1.15 into focus

XRP’s technical structure has improved materially over the past two sessions. On the 1-day chart, price has broken above a descending trendline that had capped every rally since late May, ending more than a month of lower highs. The breakout has carried XRP back toward the $1.12 resistance area after reclaiming the psychologically important $1.10 level.

XRP price 1-day chart showing a breakout above a month-long descending trendline as the Supertrend flips bullish and price approaches resistance near $1.12.
XRP price is close to breaking above a multi-month descending trendline resistance on the 1-day chart — July 3 | Source: crypto.news

The 4-hour chart reinforces that bullish shift. XRP has reclaimed its Supertrend indicator near $1.05, while the MACD has completed a bullish crossover with expanding positive histogram bars. Price has also cleared horizontal resistance around $1.075 and is now approaching the next overhead supply zone near $1.125.

4-hour XRP chart showing a bullish breakout above $1.075 with a MACD crossover and Supertrend support, putting $1.12-$1.15 in focus.
XRP 4-hour price chart — July 3 | Source: crypto.news

A decisive move above that barrier could expose the $1.15 region, while the Supertrend support near $1.05 and former resistance at $1.075 now serve as the first downside cushions.

Commenting on the setup, analyst Ali Martinez wrote in a July 3 X post:

“The SuperTrend indicator has just flashed a buy signal on XRP for the first time since mid-June. The last buy signal preceded a 14% rally.”

Martinez also noted that the indicator had correctly identified the previous 19% and 16% declines, adding weight to the latest reversal signal.

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Derivatives positioning has also shifted in favor of bulls. CoinGlass liquidation data shows one of the largest short liquidation clusters sitting just above the current price between roughly $1.11 and $1.12.

XRP liquidation heatmap highlighting a dense cluster of short liquidations above $1.11, with additional liquidity concentrated near $1.14.
XRP liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass

XRP has already begun pushing into that liquidity pocket, increasing the probability of additional forced buying if resistance breaks. Beyond that zone, another concentration of leveraged positions sits closer to $1.14, creating a potential path for an extended short squeeze should momentum continue.

On-chain sentiment has strengthened alongside the technical recovery. Sharing data from Santiment, Whale Factor highlighted that XRP’s average trading returns have fallen to their lowest level in roughly 12 years, leaving both short-term and long-term holders underwater. 

Historically, deeply negative MVRV readings have often coincided with major accumulation periods before meaningful recoveries. As Whale Factor summarized, “The more frustrated the crowd the faster the snap back when sentiment turns.”

Key risks remain despite the improving trend

The recovery still faces several hurdles before a sustained uptrend can be confirmed. The $1.12-$1.15 region contains multiple layers of technical resistance and dense leveraged positioning that could trigger renewed selling if buyers fail to force a breakout.

Any deterioration in Bitcoin’s price, a resurgence in geopolitical tensions that lifts energy prices, or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data that delays Federal Reserve rate cuts could quickly reduce appetite for altcoins.

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On the charts, a fall back below $1.075 would weaken the current breakout, while a loss of the Supertrend support near $1.05 would place the recent bullish thesis under pressure and raise the risk of another retest of the $1.00 psychological support.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Several Korean firms dispute Open USD alliance membership

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Several Korean firms dispute Open USD alliance membership

Several major South Korean companies have said they were listed as members of the Open USD (OUSD) stablecoin alliance despite not formally agreeing to participate.

Summary

  • Several South Korean companies said they did not formally join the Open USD alliance despite being listed as members.
  • Companies including Samsung Electronics and Dunamu said they had only discussed possible participation and had not made any commitment.
  • Open Standard said OUSD will let participating firms share reserve income through a consortium based stablecoin model.

According to a report by Chosun Biz, several Korean companies named as participants in the Open USD consortium said they had not held official discussions with the project’s issuer and only became aware of their inclusion after local media reports.

The report said Open Standard announced on June 30 that it had introduced OUSD, a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin scheduled for launch later this year. The organization said around 140 financial and payment companies from around the world, including Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock, Google and several South Korean firms, would join the consortium. Rather than operating as a decentralized autonomous organization or an equity-based venture, the consortium is expected to function as a cooperative network.

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Among the Korean companies listed were Samsung Electronics, Dunamu, Shinhan Financial Group, KakaoBank, K Bank, Hyundai Card, KB Kookmin Card, BC Card, Hana Card, Samsung Card, Woori Card, NH Nonghyup Card and Hanwha.

Several of those companies, however, disputed the implication that they had officially joined.

Samsung Electronics told Chosun Biz it had not held formal consultations with Open Standard and did not know what role it would have within the consortium. Dunamu, Shinhan Financial Group and K Bank also said they had only been asked whether they would be interested in participating and had responded that they would review the proposal.

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One company representative told the publication the firm only learned it had been identified as a consortium member through domestic news coverage. The representative added that its response to Open Standard had simply been that it would consider participation if the project developed further, making the company’s inclusion unexpected.

OUSD proposes shared reserve revenue model

Open Standard said OUSD is being developed as a payment and settlement stablecoin operated collectively by participating companies instead of being controlled by a single issuer.

According to the company, participating firms will be able to mint OUSD by depositing U.S. dollars into Open Standard’s reserve account and redeem tokens by returning them to the issuer. The company also said consortium members will be able to mint and redeem OUSD without fees or volume limits.

The project’s revenue model also differs from existing stablecoin issuers. Open Standard said reserve income generated from assets backing OUSD will be distributed to participating partners after operating costs are deducted, unlike issuers such as Tether and Circle, which retain reserve earnings.

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Following Open Standard’s announcement that about 140 global companies would participate, Chosun Biz reported that some participants in South Korea’s digital asset industry suggested the project could emerge as a challenger to the stablecoin market currently dominated by Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC. However, statements from several companies indicate that at least some of the announced participants have not formally committed to joining the consortium.

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