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Toncoin struggles near $1.23 despite Telegram boost and upgrade push

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Toncoin price prediction
Toncoin price prediction
  • Toncoin adoption grows with 87 million Telegram wallet users in the US.
  • Market sentiment remains bearish due to altcoin rotation and whale activity.
  • The resistance at $1.28 will likely define Toncoin’s short-term price movements.

Toncoin (TON), the native token of the TON blockchain, has been in the spotlight recently due to the ongoing Sub-Second mainnet activation and its integration with Telegram’s massive user base.

The upgrade, which is scheduled to run from March 31 to April 12, is set to improve the network’s speed, efficiency, and scalability, which could impact Toncoin’s adoption and market behavior.

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However, despite its technological potential, Toncoin has faced a challenging market environment in recent months.

Currently, TON coin trades around $1.23, down about 2.5% over the past 24 hours.

This underperformance is largely linked to a broader trend in the crypto market known as altcoin sector rotation, where investors move their capital from higher-risk altcoins into more stable assets.

The Altcoin Season Index, which measures market interest in altcoins, has dropped significantly, highlighting the cautious sentiment among traders.

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This environment has made it difficult for Toncoin to break out from its current range, despite ongoing development progress.

TON adoption and ecosystem growth

TON’s growth is closely tied to its adoption within Telegram, which now supports over 87 million active users in the United States with its self-custodial TON Wallet.

This wallet allows users to transfer and stake Toncoin directly within the messaging app, offering a seamless on-ramp for millions of potential users.

Such integration provides Toncoin with a unique advantage, as it could benefit from network effects far faster than many other Layer-1 blockchains.

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On-chain activity supports this potential, with Toncoin showing consistent daily usage.

According to available data, the network records hundreds of thousands of active wallets and millions of daily transactions.

This suggests that while Toncoin’s price has been stagnant, actual usage is steadily growing, signaling a foundation for long-term adoption.

However, a significant portion of the token supply, around 68%, is held by whales.

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This concentration increases the risk of large sell-offs, making sudden price spikes less predictable.

Toncoin technical analysis

Toncoin presents an intriguing case of technological potential versus market sentiment.

Its integration with Telegram gives it a unique edge, and the Sub-Second mainnet activation may improve network performance, but short-term price action remains uncertain.

From a technical perspective the short-term support lies near $1.02, with a secondary floor around $0.81.

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If the price rebounds following the Sub-Second mainnet activation, the immediate resistance sits at $1.34, followed by higher resistance levels at $1.50 and $1.90.

Toncoin price analysis

Historically, a break above $1.28 has always meant momentum for higher price ranges.

But while the Sub-Second mainnet activation could provide a short-term positive driver, the token’s price is still largely influenced by broader market conditions rather than project-specific developments.

On the downside, analysts highlight that failure to hold the $1.20 level could lead to tests of the yearly low around $1.10, especially if broader altcoin rotation continues.

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Crypto World

Split Capital Founder Says Crypto Hedge Funds No Longer Work

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Split Capital Founder Says Crypto Hedge Funds No Longer Work

Split Capital, a digital asset hedge fund founded by investor Zaheer Ebtikar, is shutting down, with the founder joining Peter Thiel-backed stablecoin startup Plasma.

Ebtikar announced the news in an X post on Tuesday, saying Split Capital was profitable both in 2024 and 2025, and delivered over 100% in returns.

“We were a top performing fund by every mark,” Ebtikar claimed, adding that his decision to wind down the business was driven by a belief that the crypto market had shifted away from strategies that hedge funds are designed to capture.

“The hedge fund model did not make sense for crypto, in perpetuity,” he said.

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Ebtikar’s decision came amid continued pressure on crypto hedge funds, which have reportedly faced more challenging market conditions since the 2022 market downturn.

Crypto industry no longer rewards traders chasing momentum, Ebtikar argues

Ebtikar described his early years in crypto as “PvP button-clicking,” where traders competed in fast-moving markets driven by momentum and narratives. But after nearly a decade, he said those conditions have changed.

“The industry no longer rewards traders chasing momentum, it has matured into a space where the only real question is ‘What does the future look like and where is the value?’” he said.

Ebtikar said that many investors, including critics, were ultimately right to question whether funds such as Split Capital were sustainable in a rapidly evolving market.

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An excerpt from Zaheer Ebtikar’s announcement on joining Plasma and winding down Split Capital. Source: Zaheer Ebtikar

“As time went on, our conviction narrowed around a small number of founders and verticals I genuinely believed in,” Ebtikar said.

Betting on Plasma’s stablecoin vision

Ebtikar said his conviction in Plasma grew after working closely with its founding team throughout 2024 and 2025.

Plasma is focused on building infrastructure for stablecoin settlement and global financial access. The platform raised $24 million in February last year from investors such as Framework Ventures, Bitfinex, Peter Thiel and Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino.

Related: Standard Chartered says faster stablecoin turnover could curb demand

As chief strategy officer at Plasma, Ebtikar will work across partnerships, growth and go-to-market efforts, as well as engage with investors and policymakers ahead of the rollout of Plasma One and ongoing ecosystem expansion.

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He framed the move as part of a larger belief that crypto is entering a new phase defined less by speculation and more by building global financial systems.

“The last dance of crypto’s old era and the hope and deep belief that our work at Plasma can get us to a new golden age for our space,” Ebtikar said.

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