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Trader says new BTC lows are imminent as price sits near $67K

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin is hovering near the $67,000 level as weekend liquidity thins and traders weigh the risk of renewed downside. A Bollinger Bands squeeze on shorter timeframes points to a potential burst of volatility, but direction remains uncertain as sellers re-enter into a quiet end of the week.

In a market snapshot on Sunday, a prominent market observer highlighted how the current cycle differs from past Bitcoin bear markets. Pseudonymous trader LP_NXT noted that bottoms in earlier cycles typically formed after several sweeps of the downside, triggering capitulation before a revival. This time, the pattern has tended to sweep the highs, leaving the lows exposed and liquidity building below price action, complicating entries for bears and bulls alike.

“In contrast, this cycle has been sweeping the highs, making it difficult to enter short positions while leaving the lows exposed and building liquidity below.”

Meanwhile, traders are watching for a potential breakdown below key thresholds. LP_NXT suggested that a sweep of sub-$60,000 levels could be a likely signal once selling pressure intensifies, but the eventual breakdown and the way price behaves around consecutive lows will be crucial for identifying a real bottom.

Key takeaways

  • Four-hour Bollinger Bands have contracted, signaling a classic volatility squeeze that could precede a sharp move up or down.
  • Bottom formation remains uncertain; historical patterns favored repeated low sweeps to trigger capitulation, but this cycle has shown different dynamics by sweeping highs instead.
  • Binance order-book data reveals unusual selling activity by a small investor class using a TWAP bot, with a single hour showing about $18 million in sell pressure—far above their typical daily volume.
  • Market participants describe a dichotomy in whale behavior: “buying dips and selling rips” even as BTC remains range-bound, amid macro headwinds from stronger dollar pressures.
  • Past coverage flagged added risk to bulls from a recovering U.S. dollar; investors should monitor whether price action can sustain above or below critical thresholds as liquidity shifts.

Technical setup: volatility compression and looming decisions

Price action around Sunday kept Bitcoin mired in a relatively tight band near $67k, with intraday volatility showing signs of re-emerging pressure rather than a firm directional breakout. The Bollinger Bands on the four-hour chart narrowed, a familiar prelude to a burst of activity once buyers or sellers step in decisively. Traders often interpret this as a fork in the road: a break above resistance could rekindle upside momentum, while a breakdown might expose the market to fresh liquidity-driven moves.

Among market observers, this has been a focal point because the prior cycles’ patterns around low-volume weekends can set the stage for the next move. The contrast with recent behavior—where repeated sweeps of local highs have dominated—adds an extra layer of complexity to positioning ahead of any potential move.

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Whale dynamics and order-book signals

Beyond the price chart, on-chain and order-book activity has drawn attention. Keith Alan, cofounder of trading analytics firm Material Indicators, highlighted unusual selling density in the Binance BTC/USDT book despite muted price action. A time-weighted average price (TWAP) bot was observed distributing BTC, with the smallest order class executing a roughly $18 million sell program in an hour—significantly larger and more rapid than the class’s typical $3 million to $5 million daily volume.

“That’s exponentially more than their normal $3M-$5M daily volume in 1 hr. That ain’t retail!”

A broader portrait emerges of a market where whales are not uniformly aligned with a single directional narrative. Alan summarized the dynamic as “buying dips and selling rips” within a price range that continues to confound shorter-term traders. This pattern aligns with a market waiting for clearer macro cues and a more definitive breakout or breakdown signal.

Earlier reporting noted additional bulls’ headwinds from a recovering U.S. dollar, which can dampen enthusiasm for risk assets like Bitcoin when fiat strength escalates. The current activity in the order book underscores how much of the near-term price action may be driven by large players rather than retail flow, particularly as weekend liquidity dries up and position risks accumulate.

Macro backdrop and what it could mean next

The interplay between Bitcoin’s price trajectory and dollar strength remains a critical backdrop for traders. If the dollar cools or if liquidity shifts back into risk assets, BTC could attempt a sustained push higher. Conversely, renewed dollar strength or renewed selling pressure from large token holders could push the market toward test levels below the February low near $60,000. As with many chart-based narratives, the outcome will likely hinge on whether price can sustain a breakout beyond key resistance and whether further high-low sweeps occur, testing traders’ willingness to commit to new positions.

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With Bitcoin hovering near critical junctures, investors are watching for concrete signals: a decisive break above the recent range, a compassionate test of sub-$60,000 lows, or a different pattern of liquidity formation that could indicate a new phase in the market cycle. The next couple of sessions should offer clearer directional clues as macro catalysts and order-book dynamics converge.

Cointelegraph’s prior coverage of dollar strength and its implications for crypto markets remains a useful context for readers assessing risk and potential routes for Bitcoin in the near term.

As the market enters a decision point, traders should monitor both price action and the evolving composition of order-book activity to gauge whether a bottom is forming or if a fresh leg down could materialize.

What remains uncertain is how quickly order-flow dynamics will normalize once weekends end and institutions re-enter the scene. Investors should stay alert to any break of sub-$60k liquidity traps or indicators that reinforce a shift in the prevailing liquidity regime.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto World

Market Preview: CPI Inflation Reports and Delta (DAL) Earnings Amid Iran Conflict

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Highlights

  • First inflation measurements since Iran conflict began: March CPI and February PCE reports scheduled
  • March employment report showed 178,000 new positions, surpassing the 65,000 forecast
  • Crude prices surged more than 50% following war outbreak, pushing gasoline beyond $4 nationwide
  • Delta Air Lines earnings Wednesday will reveal jet fuel expense impact on carrier profitability
  • Major indices snapped five consecutive weeks of declines, climbing at minimum 3%

Investors are preparing for a pivotal week featuring critical inflation measurements, quarterly corporate results, and continued monitoring of the Iran conflict’s economic ramifications.

Last week’s trading session saw the S&P 500 advance 1.6%, while the Dow Jones climbed 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.2%. The rally ended a five-week decline for all three benchmarks. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 and Dow remain lower by 3.8% and 3.2%, respectively.

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E-Mini S&P 500 Jun 26 (ES=F)

Friday’s employment data for March significantly exceeded analyst projections. The report revealed 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions versus consensus estimates of 65,000. This represented a sharp reversal from February’s 92,000 job losses.

“The message here is equilibrium,” noted Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “Robust employment growth diminishes pressure for immediate rate reductions, though it doesn’t alter the overall deceleration pattern.”

Michael Feroli, JPMorgan Chase’s chief US economist, indicated the figures provided “somewhat greater assurance that economic expansion can absorb the current energy cost surge without substantial lasting harm.”

Critical Inflation Measurements Approaching

Thursday delivers the February Personal Consumption Expenditures index, an inflation gauge the Federal Reserve prioritizes. Analyst consensus projects a 0.4% monthly advance and 2.8% annual growth.

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Source: Forex Factory

Friday presents the more significant release: March’s Consumer Price Index. Forecasters anticipate a 0.9% monthly increase and 3.4% annual rise. February’s CPI registered 2.4% annually. This upcoming report represents the initial measurement incorporating Iran war-related pricing effects.

National average gasoline prices exceeded $4 per gallon last week, per AAA data. Goldman Sachs analyst Ben Shumway noted escalating costs are “contributing to further deterioration in consumer sentiment from previously depressed readings.”

Andy Schneider, senior US economist at BNP Paribas, observed that “supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have materialized while tariff impacts continue spreading,” noting that “initial petroleum price transmission will be reflected in March figures.”

Goldman economist Manuel Abecasis characterized the present supply disruption as “less worrisome than previous instances that generated inflation challenges,” pointing to its constrained scope and range.

Corporate Results and Conflict Implications

Delta Air Lines releases quarterly results Wednesday morning before market open. The carrier’s performance will illuminate how elevated aviation fuel expenses are impacting airline sector margins. Constellation Brands and Levi Strauss additionally report during the period.

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Street analysts forecast earnings expansion exceeding 13% across the S&P 500 overall, per FactSet data.

Oil prices have climbed over 50% during the five weeks since hostilities commenced. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually nonexistent. Trump conducted a Monday briefing alongside military leadership as his self-established deadline for strait reopening nears.

Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn observed that “investors have shifted from pricing in de-escalation scenarios to assessing escalation likelihood.”

Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, Rystad Energy’s chief oil analyst, indicated the temporary cushion that initially contained price increases from pre-conflict petroleum inventories is now depleting.

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The Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting minutes release Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. Market participants broadly anticipate the Fed will maintain current interest rates at its upcoming April session.

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Odds of a US Invasion of Iran Spike After Trump’s Threat of Escalation

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Iran, US Government, United States, Donald Trump, Oil and Gas, Polymarket

The odds of the United States invading Iran this year surged to 63% on the Polymarket prediction platform on Sunday, following comments made by US President Donald Trump on social media.

Despite the surge, the odds of an invasion before 2027 are still down from the high of 68% on March 29, due to a US troop buildup in the region and comments from the Trump administration that the United States was considering capturing Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil shipping station.

Volume on that prediction was about $3.74 million at the time of publication.

Iran, US Government, United States, Donald Trump, Oil and Gas, Polymarket
Odds of the US invading Iran before 2027 surge to 63%. Source: Polymarket

On Tuesday, after Trump signaled that the US might leave Iran in the next two to three weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) jumped by about 2.6% and the S&P 500 index to added about 2.91%. However, Trump reversed course with his latest statement on Sunday. He wrote:

“Tuesday will be power plant day, and bridge day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it! Open the fuckin’ strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell.”

At last look, BTC was little changed, trading up less than 0.1% in the past 24 hours, remaining anchored around the $67,500 level, according to data from TradingView.

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The mixed signals from the Trump administration on the war and how long it will last continue to create investor uncertainty and an impact on all risk asset prices, as market analysts, traders and economists attempt to forecast the effects of the war.

Iran, US Government, United States, Donald Trump, Oil and Gas, Polymarket
Source: Donald Trump

Related: Polymarket takes down market on missing US pilot after backlash

Trump’s comments draw a wave of online backlash, but asset prices barely budge

“I wish Trump would stop threatening Iranian civilian infrastructure. It’s a lose-lose for us: backing down hurts his negotiating credibility,” economist Peter Schiff said in response to Trump’s comments. 

“Carrying it out escalates the war, damages US standing, generates sympathy for Iran and fuels Iranian hatred for America,” Schiff continued.

“I assumed this was a fake, it isn’t — wild,” podcaster and Bitcoin advocate Peter McCormack said.

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Brent crude oil, the most widely used pricing benchmark for the international spot oil market, remains elevated, closing Thursday at more than $109 per barrel. Trading is scheduled to resume on Monday following the Easter holiday weekend.

Magazine: Inside the Iranian Bitcoin mining industry