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Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin says bitcoin could see ‘one more point of pain’

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Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin says bitcoin could see 'one more point of pain'

The current state of the crypto market is unfolding almost exactly as historical patterns would suggest, according to Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures

That’s why he was skeptical of recent overly optimistic bottom calls. “When people thought the bottom was going to be at $80,000 and that it would only be a six-week bear market, that seems ridiculous to me,” Terpin said at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 on Thursday.

Predictions that bitcoin would bottom at $60,000 and immediately resume its climb struck him as premature. “That also seems a little too soon.”

While he stopped short of forecasting another year-long drawdown, Terpin believes the market likely faces “one more point of pain” in what he describes as a fragile environment. He suggests bitcoin could revisit levels in the $50,000s or even the $40,000s before a durable bottom is formed.

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The halving is central to bitcoin’s design because it cuts the reward miners receive for validating transactions in half roughly every four years, reducing the rate at which new coins are created.

This built-in supply shock reinforces bitcoin’s scarcity, a core part of its value proposition, and has historically preceded major bull markets as reduced new supply meets steady or rising demand.

The halving mechanism slows bitcoin’s inflation rate over time, ultimately capping total supply at 21 million coins and reinforcing its positioning as digital gold.

“We are exactly where we should be,” Terpin argued, pointing to the well-established four-year cycle anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events.

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One of the most reliable elements of prior cycles has been the rough timing of the bubble peak and subsequent unwind, he argued.

“The bull market popped in the fourth quarter after the halving,” he notes, adding that the speculative blow-off phase typically lasts between nine and 11 months. “This time it was 11 months.”

Terpin draws a close parallel to the last cycle. “The highs, the bubble popping, were on Nov. 10, 2021,” he says. “The lows were right after FTX declared bankruptcy on Nov. 10, 2022. Exactly a year to the day.”

Read more: Crypto asset manager Bitwise says bitcoin will break its four-year cycle in 2026

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Crypto World

Is A Short Squeeze Near?

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Cryptocurrencies, Funding, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) formed a new weekly low at $65,500 on Thursday, as the price has continued to trend lower over the past four days. Derivatives data also indicate that traders are heavily positioned to the downside. 

Analysts said that this setup may lead to a sharp move higher that forces sellers to close their positions, even as other indicators hint that the move may not be straightforward.

Key takeaways:

  • The seven-day average funding rate for Bitcoin has turned strongly negative for the first time since March 2023 and November 2022.

  • Bitcoin liquidity and stablecoin flow data show renewed capital outflows, reducing the odds of a sustained squeeze.

Cryptocurrencies, Funding, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin funding stays red as short positions rise

Bitcoin’s daily funding rate has remained in deep red territory since the beginning of February, marking its most negative period since May 2023. The seven-day simple moving average (SMA) has flipped negative for the first time in nearly a year.

Cryptocurrencies, Funding, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin daily funding rate. Source: CryptoQuant

The funding rate is a periodic payment between the traders in futures markets. When it is negative, the short sellers pay long traders, signaling that the bearish positions are crowded, and vice versa.

Crypto analyst Leo Ruga said the current “red funding rate for days” signals that the bearish or short trade may be getting overcrowded. Ruga added:

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“This is the kind of negative funding that typically appears during bottoming phases. Not because shorts are wrong, but because extended negative funding often marks exhaustion of selling pressure.”

Similarly, market analyst Pelin Ay highlighted that the funding rate recently dropped near -0.02 last Friday, with sharp negative spikes. Ay added that when sharp price declines coincide with negative funding, it can set the stage for a short squeeze, particularly if $58,000 holds as the local support. 

Related: Bitcoin must close week at $68.3K to avoid ‘bearish acceleration:’ Analyst

The last time Bitcoin’s daily funding rate stayed deeply negative for 10 to 20 days after a bullish phase was in May 2021 and January 2022. In May 2021, BTC corrected for nearly two months before breaking out to new highs. In January 2022, the negative stretch preceded a broader bearish cycle. Thus, extended negative funding has not consistently produced an immediate reversal in the past

Cryptocurrencies, Funding, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin funding rate comparison between May 2021 and January 2022. Source: CryptoQuant

Onchain data supports a cautious view. Bitcoin researcher analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the SSR oscillator, which measures Bitcoin’s strength relative to stablecoins, has mostly stayed in negative territory since August 2025. 

A brief move into positive territory in mid-January (+0.057) coincided with a rally above $95,000, but the oscillator has since dropped to -0.15 as the price pulled back toward $67,000.

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Cryptocurrencies, Funding, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR). Source: Axel Adler. Jr

Stablecoin flows tell a similar story. The 30-day change in USDt (USDT) market cap turned positive in early January (+$1.4 billion), but it has since reversed to -$2.87 billion, signaling a period of capital outflows.

Until liquidity trends and the SSR oscillator turn sustainably positive, Adler Jr. said that the BTC market remains in a “risk-off” phase.

Related: Binance completes $1B Bitcoin conversion for SAFU emergency fund