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US lawmakers push bill to crack down on war-bet prediction markets

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Two Democratic lawmakers in the United States have formally introduced a bill aimed at curbing what they describe as government-insider trading risk tied to prediction markets. The BETS OFF Act, unveiled in a joint effort by Representative Greg Casar of Texas and Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, targets platforms whose markets place bets on sensitive government actions. The move follows a spate of high-profile bets linked to potential U.S. action in the Middle East, prompting questions about the role of real-time markets in shaping or amplifying political decisions.

Key takeaways

  • The BETS OFF Act was introduced by Rep. Greg Casar and Sen. Chris Murphy in response to suspicious bets on international conflict scenarios, including a possible war involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran.
  • The bill seeks to prohibit event contracts tied to sensitive government decisions and federal functions, effectively narrowing the scope of markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.
  • The push comes amid continued regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, following earlier proposals such as Sen. Adam Schiff’s DEATH BETS Act targeting war, terrorism, assassination, and deaths.
  • Public discourse around insider information is central: lawmakers argue decisions in the Situation Room should not be swayed by financial positions on open markets.
  • Industry声音 remains mixed—Polymarket defends the value of crowd wisdom, while Kalshi limits certain military action forecasts, reflecting divergent approaches to risk and governance in prediction markets.

Market context: The debate over prediction markets sits at the intersection of financial innovation, governance, and national security. As lawmakers push for tighter controls, market operators face clarifications on what kinds of forecasts can be legally listed, while observers watch whether broader crypto-asset and derivatives markets will influence or respond to policy changes.

Why it matters

At the heart of the BETS OFF Act is a concern that insider information—or access to non-public policy deliberations—could be translated into lucrative bets on the outcomes of military or other sensitive actions. Rep. Casar framed the issue around the possibility that “someone sitting in the situation room” could be empowered by market positions in decisions of life and death. The proposed legislation would restrict event contracts tied to government operations and major federal actions, which would notably limit the kinds of bets that platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi can offer on foreign policy and national security events.

The controversy is not purely theoretical. Earlier in the year, Sen. Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which emphasizes prohibition of markets listing events connected to war, terrorism, assassination, and deaths. The parallel push from multiple offices signals a growing concern among U.S. lawmakers about how prediction markets intersect with public policy and accountability. As markets, regulators, and political actors continue to navigate these questions, the debate intensifies around whether such platforms should be allowed to operate with the same latitude as other forms of speculative markets—and what safeguards are necessary to prevent misuse.

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On the platforms themselves, Polymarket has positioned its operations as a way to harness collective intelligence for better forecasting, emphasizing the value of crowd-sourced signals during volatile periods. Kalshi, by contrast, has taken a more constrained stance for certain high-stakes scenarios, choosing not to list contracts on specific military actions or other sensitive geopolitical outcomes. The tension underscores a broader governance question: can prediction markets deliver genuine societal value without creating incentives that could distort policy or provoke manipulation?

Concerns about safety and legitimacy have also resonated beyond the markets’ floors. A Times of Israel military correspondent reported receiving death threats related to coverage of the Iranian missile strike date, underscoring the real-world stakes involved when financial markets entwine with geopolitics. Such incidents amplify the call for clearer boundaries around which events can be bet on and under what conditions, particularly when coverage intersects with ongoing conflict and public safety considerations.

Why it matters

Prediction markets have long claimed to distill “wisdom of the crowd” into probabilistic forecasts on a range of topics, from elections to sporting events. The current controversy places a sharp spotlight on how such frameworks function when sensitive geopolitical actions are on the line. If lawmakers succeed in restricting certain classes of contracts, the markets’ ability to reflect near-term probabilities on foreign policy may be curtailed. That could alter how information flows in high-stakes environments and potentially shift shifts in risk pricing across related derivative markets.

For policymakers, the BETS OFF Act represents a legislative attempt to recalibrate the balance between innovation and guardrails. The bill’s proponents argue that ensuring decisions about war and peace are not influenced by betting markets is essential to preserving the integrity of national security processes. Critics, however, may contend that market-based signals can illuminate risk and improve transparency—if properly designed with safeguards. The unfolding policy discussion will likely test the resilience and adaptability of prediction-market platforms, as well as the broader ecosystem of crypto- and mainstream financial markets intertwined with these services.

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What to watch next

  • Prospective committee hearings and floor votes on the BETS OFF Act, including potential amendments clarifying the scope of prohibited contracts.
  • Regulatory clarifications from U.S. agencies overseeing prediction markets and related financial instruments, potentially addressing enforcement mechanisms and permissible product design.
  • Updates on Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s product offerings in response to any new regulatory guidance or legislative actions.
  • Ongoing reporting on insider-information concerns connected to policy decisions and how such concerns may influence market design and investor protection measures.

Sources & verification

  • Official statements from Representative Greg Casar and Senator Chris Murphy announcing the BETS OFF Act, and the legislative text when released.
  • Public statements and policy positions from Polymarket on the role and limits of prediction markets in current events.
  • Kalshi’s publicly stated market scope and its approach to sensitive geopolitical contracts, including any restrictions on military action forecasts.
  • Past congressional actions and debates around prediction markets, such as the DEATH BETS Act introduced by Senator Adam Schiff.

Key figures and next steps

Market participants and policy observers will be watching how lawmakers articulate the balance between innovation and safeguards in prediction markets. The BETS OFF Act joins a broader set of questions about the accountability of platforms that monetize forecasts on sensitive events. If enacted, the legislation could reorient product design, risk controls, and the permissible scope of bets offered to the public. Until then, Polymarket and Kalshi—along with other platforms—continue to operate within the existing regulatory framework while navigating the evolving political discourse surrounding insider information, elections, and foreign policy risk.

What to watch next (summary)

  • Legislative votes or committee actions on the BETS OFF Act and its potential amendments.
  • Regulatory clarifications issued by relevant U.S. agencies about prediction-market operations.
  • Platform policy adjustments by Polymarket and Kalshi in response to new rules or enforcement actions.
  • Ongoing media reporting on insider-information concerns and related safety incidents tied to market-driven forecasts.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin drops toward $68,000 as demand weakens and whales sell

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(CoinDesk)

Bitcoin slid toward $68,000 on Tuesday, with traditional markets closed in Hong Kong for a long weekend, as repeated failures near $70,000 left the bitcoin market vulnerable to a break lower.

The drop came after another failed push above $70,000, with prices slipping quickly once they approached the lower end of the $65,000 to $73,000 range that has defined trading since late March. Intraday losses accelerated near that boundary, highlighting how little support exists when momentum turns.

(CoinDesk)

That calm is not being driven by strong demand. Recent Glassnode data shows softer trading volumes and subdued onchain activity even as prices recover, indicating limited participation behind the move.

Meanwhile, in a note to CoinDesk, crypto-native trading and liquidity firm Caladan pointed to negative demand trends and ongoing distribution by large holders, leaving bitcoin reliant on macro-driven flows and derivatives positioning rather than broad-based accumulation.

The result is a market that looks stable on the surface but is structurally fragile if that balance shifts.

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That vulnerability is becoming more visible in derivatives markets. Options data shows traders are increasingly paying up for downside protection, with implied volatility holding above realized levels, a sign that investors are bracing for a larger move even as spot prices remain rangebound.

Analysts who spoke to CoinDesk earlier point to a negative gamma setup below roughly $68,000, where market makers may be forced to sell bitcoin as prices fall in order to hedge their exposure.

The danger: this dynamic can accelerate declines, transforming a gradual move into a sharper, self-reinforcing rout that could drag prices toward the $60,000 level if support breaks.

Prediction markets reflect a similar shift in sentiment. On Polymarket, traders are assigning a 68% probability that bitcoin will trade at or below $65,000 in April, while higher targets such as $80,000 have seen sharply declining odds.

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Taken together, the signals point to a market where the calm may hold, but only until key levels give way.

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SEC close to putting out ‘reg crypto’ for fundraising questions, Chair Atkins says

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SEC close to putting out 'reg crypto' for fundraising questions, Chair Atkins says

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The Securities and Exchange Commission is close to proposing a “regulation crypto” fleshing out its approach to overseeing the crypto industry and drawing lines between transactions that might be securities and where they aren’t, the agency’s head said Monday.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the commission’s new reg crypto is in front of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, meaning it’s one step away from being published. This rulemaking is focused on the Securities Act of 1933 and will address fundraising and startup exemptions, among other issues, he said Monday at an event hosted by Vanderbilt University and the Blockchain Association.

He told CoinDesk after his question-and-answer session that the SEC also intends to put out its long-awaited innovation exemption soon.

“We’d love to have reactions and everything else,” he said. “It’s not a rule as such but obviously we need to know how it’s functioning and if people have problems with it or not.”

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One aspect to this exemption, he said, is that it wouldn’t disadvantage incumbents and focus solely on startups.

“We want people really to experiment within [that] framework,” he said.

Midterm watch

At multiple points during his talk, Atkins pointed to Congress’s role, saying that his agency’s rulemaking process was well underway despite whatever Congress may do.

“I think we have enough of a runway now, even notwithstanding what may happen in the midterms — although I really still want a friendly Congress obviously — they can throw tacks on the road in front of our tires but they’re not going to really slow us down.”

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Atkins also said the audience needed “to be engaged in this upcoming election,” pointing to Senator Bernie Moreno as an example.

“To have Congress really veer off track is not going to any of us any good, and it’s going to put a lot more questions into the future because people then just have ‘oh gosh, maybe this is again a passing phase,’” he said. “We’ve got to make sure that your friends are in Congress. I think you saw how that really paid benefits in the last election.”

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Did Japan’s PM Actually Back the Memecoin Bearing Her Name?

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Japan’s SANAE TOKEN saga has entered a new phase, with fresh media reports alleging the prime minister’s office knew more than it admitted. But for crypto markets, the bigger story is what happens next in Tokyo’s legislature.

The political noise and the regulatory signal are arriving at exactly the same time.

How the Token Unraveled

SANAE TOKEN launched on Solana on Feb. 25, as BeInCrypto reported. NoBorder DAO — a community led by serial entrepreneur Yuji Mizoguchi — issued it as part of a “Japan is Back” initiative, with Takaichi’s name and likeness on the project website. The token surged over 40x on launch day before Takaichi’s March 2 denial triggered a 58% crash.

The FSA opened a probe into NoBorder DAO for operating without a crypto exchange license. The token’s operators halted issuance shortly after.

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The SANAE TOKEN website describes the token as “not just a meme, but the hope of Japan,” alongside a portrait of Prime Minister Takaichi and a timeline of her political career. Source: japanisbacksanaet.jp

Japanese Tabloid Reports Secretary’s Approval

Weekly Bunshun, a Japanese tabloid known for breaking political and celebrity scandals, says developer Ken Matsui told the magazine his team informed Takaichi’s office that the project was a crypto asset. That directly contradicts her March 2 denial. Takaichi said neither she nor her office had been told anything about the token.

The publication says it obtained audio recordings of Takaichi’s chief secretary over a period of more than 20 years, reportedly describing the project favorably. Another Japanese online media reported that Takaichi’s office had not responded to media inquiries on the matter as of Tuesday. Takaichi has held no press conference since February 18, when her second cabinet was inaugurated.

The political dimension remains unresolved. What matters for crypto is whether the scandal accelerates — or complicates — Japan’s regulatory overhaul.

FSA Bill Changes the Rules

Japan’s Financial Services Agency submitted its landmark crypto reform bill to parliament this week, Asahi Shimbun reported. The legislation moves crypto from the Payment Services Act into the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, reclassifying digital assets as financial instruments for the first time.

As BeInCrypto previously reported, the maximum prison term for unlicensed crypto sales would triple to 10 years, with fines rising from ¥3 million to ¥10 million. The SESC gains criminal investigation powers it has never held over crypto operators. The SANAE TOKEN case was explicitly cited in Nikkei’s reporting on the legislative push.

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The bill would also void transactions with unregistered operators by default, making it easier for investors to seek refunds — a provision directly relevant to the SANAE TOKEN case.

The post Did Japan’s PM Actually Back the Memecoin Bearing Her Name? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Every 5 Minutes: Korea’s New Rule for Crypto Exchanges

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South Korea’s financial regulator has ordered all crypto exchanges to verify user asset balances every five minutes, following a massive overpayment incident that shook market confidence earlier this year.

One botched reward payout exposed systemic cracks across the entire industry.

What Triggered the Rules

In February, Bithumb accidentally sent 2,000 BTC per person instead of 2,000 Korean won ($1.40) during a promotional event. The error amounted to roughly $42 billion in misallocated crypto. The Financial Services Commission (FSC) launched emergency inspections across all five major Korean exchanges immediately after. What they found went far beyond a single human mistake.

Most exchanges were only reconciling their books once every 24 hours. Three had no automatic kill switch to halt trading when discrepancies appeared. Four lacked multi-step approval systems for high-risk manual transactions. Two exchanges hadn’t even separated their general accounts from high-risk transaction accounts — a basic safeguard.

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What Exchanges Must Now Do

The FSC announced a three-pillar reform package on April 6. Exchanges must run automated balance checks every five minutes, with alerts and automatic trading halts triggered by major mismatches. Monthly external audits replace the previous quarterly schedule, and public disclosures must now include asset-by-asset blockchain holdings rather than a simple coverage ratio.

For manual, high-risk transactions such as event payouts, exchanges must use separate accounts, deploy validity-check systems that automatically reject mismatched inputs, and require cross-verification by a third party before execution.

The FSC will also require exchanges to appoint dedicated risk management officers and establish risk management committees — standards already expected of traditional financial firms. Compliance checks move from annual to twice-yearly, with results reported to regulators.

DAXA, the industry body, will complete self-regulatory amendments this month, with systems built out by May. Key provisions will feed into Korea’s forthcoming second-phase Digital Asset Act.

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The post Every 5 Minutes: Korea’s New Rule for Crypto Exchanges appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Chaos Labs Leaves Aave Due to Budget, Risk Disagreements

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Chaos Labs Leaves Aave Due to Budget, Risk Disagreements

Chaos Labs has parted ways with the Aave ecosystem after serving as the crypto lending protocol’s main risk service provider for three years, citing a budget dispute and disagreements over how Aave should manage risk.

“This decision was not made in haste,” Chaos Labs founder Omer Goldberg said in a post to X on Monday. “We worked in good faith with DAO contributors. Aave Labs was professional and supported increasing our budget to $5m to retain us. However, we are leaving because the engagement no longer reflects how we believe risk should be managed.”

Source: Omer Goldberg

Aave Labs CEO Stani Kulechov said that Chaos didn’t depart on bad terms, but claimed that Chaos pitched a proposal seeking to become the sole risk provider and thus force out other partners — a compromise Aave wasn’t willing to accept.

Chaos played a key role in Aave’s back-end infrastructure, from pricing loans and managing risk in the Aave V2 and V3 markets since November 2022, during which Aave’s total value locked rose fivefold to $26 billion.

Risk has been a major talking point in the Aave community after a user lost $50 million in a trade while interacting with Aave’s interface on March 12. The following week, Aave said it would introduce an “Aave Shield” protection feature to deter users from high-risk trades.

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As for Chaos’ departure, Goldberg said there became an increasing misalignment over how the parties thought risk should be managed. He noted that some Aave contributors had left, raising its workload, while also arguing that Aave V4’s expanded functionality introduced additional operational and legal risks that fell on Chaos’ shoulders.

“While Aave Labs is optimistic about a swift migration to V4, history suggests these transitions take months and even years,” Goldberg said. “Until V4 fully absorbs V3’s markets and liquidity, both systems need to be operated and managed simultaneously. The workload during the transition doesn’t halve. It doubles.”

Weighing the risk of a protocol failure, Goldberg said, “There is no regulatory framework, no safe harbor, and no settled law that answers the question of what a risk manager or curator owes when a protocol fails. If things work, the work is invisible. If things break, the blame is not.”

As such, “We are walking away from a $5 million engagement,” Goldberg said.

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Chaos wanted Aave to boot LlamaRisk, Chainlink: Kulechov

Aave Labs CEO Stani Kulechov told a slightly different story, stating that Chaos wanted to be the sole risk manager and use its price oracles instead of Chainlink’s.

Following that request would have forced Aave to push out its other risk protocol partner, LlamaRisk, and thus abandon its two-layer economic risk model.

Related: DeFi lender Aave launches on OKX’s Ethereum L2, X Layer

Kulechov added Aave was unwilling to integrate Chaos-built price oracles, citing Aave’s “track record” with Chainlink’s services, which its “users are currently more comfortable with at scale.”

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He also said Chaos was already “exploring winding down its risk consultancy services,” and that Aave had offered to double its payment to $5 million to retain them.

Cointelegraph reached out to Chaos Labs for comment.

Kulechov noted that Chaos’ departure hasn’t disrupted the Aave protocol, its smart contracts, token listings or network integrations.

Moving forward, Aave said it “will work closely with LlamaRisk to ensure a smooth transition” and maintain its two-layer economic risk model. 

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Source: LlamaRisk

Chaos’ departure comes amid a protocol-wide feud over how much funding and revenue control Aave Labs should receive versus Aave’s decentralized autonomous organization.

Despite the internal issues, Aave crossed the $1 trillion mark in cumulative lending volume in late February, marking a first in the DeFi industry.

Magazine: Animoca teams up with Ava Labs, Shrapnel on Steam: Web3 Gamer