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US lawmakers push bill to crack down on war-bet prediction markets

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Two Democratic lawmakers in the United States have formally introduced a bill aimed at curbing what they describe as government-insider trading risk tied to prediction markets. The BETS OFF Act, unveiled in a joint effort by Representative Greg Casar of Texas and Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, targets platforms whose markets place bets on sensitive government actions. The move follows a spate of high-profile bets linked to potential U.S. action in the Middle East, prompting questions about the role of real-time markets in shaping or amplifying political decisions.

Key takeaways

  • The BETS OFF Act was introduced by Rep. Greg Casar and Sen. Chris Murphy in response to suspicious bets on international conflict scenarios, including a possible war involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran.
  • The bill seeks to prohibit event contracts tied to sensitive government decisions and federal functions, effectively narrowing the scope of markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.
  • The push comes amid continued regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, following earlier proposals such as Sen. Adam Schiff’s DEATH BETS Act targeting war, terrorism, assassination, and deaths.
  • Public discourse around insider information is central: lawmakers argue decisions in the Situation Room should not be swayed by financial positions on open markets.
  • Industry声音 remains mixed—Polymarket defends the value of crowd wisdom, while Kalshi limits certain military action forecasts, reflecting divergent approaches to risk and governance in prediction markets.

Market context: The debate over prediction markets sits at the intersection of financial innovation, governance, and national security. As lawmakers push for tighter controls, market operators face clarifications on what kinds of forecasts can be legally listed, while observers watch whether broader crypto-asset and derivatives markets will influence or respond to policy changes.

Why it matters

At the heart of the BETS OFF Act is a concern that insider information—or access to non-public policy deliberations—could be translated into lucrative bets on the outcomes of military or other sensitive actions. Rep. Casar framed the issue around the possibility that “someone sitting in the situation room” could be empowered by market positions in decisions of life and death. The proposed legislation would restrict event contracts tied to government operations and major federal actions, which would notably limit the kinds of bets that platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi can offer on foreign policy and national security events.

The controversy is not purely theoretical. Earlier in the year, Sen. Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which emphasizes prohibition of markets listing events connected to war, terrorism, assassination, and deaths. The parallel push from multiple offices signals a growing concern among U.S. lawmakers about how prediction markets intersect with public policy and accountability. As markets, regulators, and political actors continue to navigate these questions, the debate intensifies around whether such platforms should be allowed to operate with the same latitude as other forms of speculative markets—and what safeguards are necessary to prevent misuse.

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On the platforms themselves, Polymarket has positioned its operations as a way to harness collective intelligence for better forecasting, emphasizing the value of crowd-sourced signals during volatile periods. Kalshi, by contrast, has taken a more constrained stance for certain high-stakes scenarios, choosing not to list contracts on specific military actions or other sensitive geopolitical outcomes. The tension underscores a broader governance question: can prediction markets deliver genuine societal value without creating incentives that could distort policy or provoke manipulation?

Concerns about safety and legitimacy have also resonated beyond the markets’ floors. A Times of Israel military correspondent reported receiving death threats related to coverage of the Iranian missile strike date, underscoring the real-world stakes involved when financial markets entwine with geopolitics. Such incidents amplify the call for clearer boundaries around which events can be bet on and under what conditions, particularly when coverage intersects with ongoing conflict and public safety considerations.

Why it matters

Prediction markets have long claimed to distill “wisdom of the crowd” into probabilistic forecasts on a range of topics, from elections to sporting events. The current controversy places a sharp spotlight on how such frameworks function when sensitive geopolitical actions are on the line. If lawmakers succeed in restricting certain classes of contracts, the markets’ ability to reflect near-term probabilities on foreign policy may be curtailed. That could alter how information flows in high-stakes environments and potentially shift shifts in risk pricing across related derivative markets.

For policymakers, the BETS OFF Act represents a legislative attempt to recalibrate the balance between innovation and guardrails. The bill’s proponents argue that ensuring decisions about war and peace are not influenced by betting markets is essential to preserving the integrity of national security processes. Critics, however, may contend that market-based signals can illuminate risk and improve transparency—if properly designed with safeguards. The unfolding policy discussion will likely test the resilience and adaptability of prediction-market platforms, as well as the broader ecosystem of crypto- and mainstream financial markets intertwined with these services.

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What to watch next

  • Prospective committee hearings and floor votes on the BETS OFF Act, including potential amendments clarifying the scope of prohibited contracts.
  • Regulatory clarifications from U.S. agencies overseeing prediction markets and related financial instruments, potentially addressing enforcement mechanisms and permissible product design.
  • Updates on Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s product offerings in response to any new regulatory guidance or legislative actions.
  • Ongoing reporting on insider-information concerns connected to policy decisions and how such concerns may influence market design and investor protection measures.

Sources & verification

  • Official statements from Representative Greg Casar and Senator Chris Murphy announcing the BETS OFF Act, and the legislative text when released.
  • Public statements and policy positions from Polymarket on the role and limits of prediction markets in current events.
  • Kalshi’s publicly stated market scope and its approach to sensitive geopolitical contracts, including any restrictions on military action forecasts.
  • Past congressional actions and debates around prediction markets, such as the DEATH BETS Act introduced by Senator Adam Schiff.

Key figures and next steps

Market participants and policy observers will be watching how lawmakers articulate the balance between innovation and safeguards in prediction markets. The BETS OFF Act joins a broader set of questions about the accountability of platforms that monetize forecasts on sensitive events. If enacted, the legislation could reorient product design, risk controls, and the permissible scope of bets offered to the public. Until then, Polymarket and Kalshi—along with other platforms—continue to operate within the existing regulatory framework while navigating the evolving political discourse surrounding insider information, elections, and foreign policy risk.

What to watch next (summary)

  • Legislative votes or committee actions on the BETS OFF Act and its potential amendments.
  • Regulatory clarifications issued by relevant U.S. agencies about prediction-market operations.
  • Platform policy adjustments by Polymarket and Kalshi in response to new rules or enforcement actions.
  • Ongoing media reporting on insider-information concerns and related safety incidents tied to market-driven forecasts.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto World

Bitcoin ETF inflows hit highest level since February

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ProShares introduces first CoinDesk 20 Crypto ETF under ticker KRYP

Bitcoin traded around $68,780 on Tuesday as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest daily inflow in more than a month.

Funds added a combined $471 million on April 6, according to SoSoValue data, marking the largest inflow since Feb. 25 and the sixth-biggest daily total this year. The figure remains below January’s peak flow regime, when multiple trading days topped $700 million.

These high inflows come as bitcoin continues to stall below $70,000, with weak spot demand and distribution by large holders capping upside. ETFs have increasingly offset that pressure, acting as a primary source of marginal buying.

Macro signals offer limited direction. Markets are pricing a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its April meeting, according to Polymarket data, with minimal expectations for near-term cuts or hikes.

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Bitcoin’s relationship with global monetary policy may be shifting, with ETFs changing not just the scale of demand but its timing.

A recent Binance Research report finds bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, has turned sharply negative since 2024, the same year U.S. spot ETFs were approved. Before then, bitcoin tended to follow easing cycles with a lag. That relationship has now flipped, with the inverse effect nearly three times stronger.

The shift reflects who sets the marginal price. Retail once reacted to macro after the fact. ETF-driven institutional flows are more forward-looking, positioning ahead of expected policy moves.

“BTC may have evolved from a macro ‘lagging receiver’ to a ‘leading pricer,’” Binance Research wrote.

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ETF inflows continue to absorb supply and anchor prices, which could explain the continued daily inflow.

If what Binance Research proposes holds, bitcoin may keep trading as a forward-looking asset, pricing in central bank pivots before traditional markets rather than reacting to them after the fact.

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US Bankruptcy Filings Spike 14% in Q1 2026: What’s Driving the Surge

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Total US bankruptcy filings climbed 14% in the first quarter of 2026, reaching 150,009 cases between January and March, up from 132,094 during the same period last year.

The increase spans consumer and commercial categories alike, according to data from Epiq AACER published by the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI).

US Bankruptcy Filings Surge As Inflation Takes Its Toll

Small business filings showed the most dramatic acceleration. Subchapter V elections surged 67% to 833 from 499 a year earlier. Commercial Chapter 11 filings also rose 37%, climbing from 1,764 to 2,422.

Consumer filings told a similar story. Individual Chapter 7 cases increased 17% to 89,259. Chapter 13 filings rose 8% to 51,962. Total consumer filings reached 141,573. But what’s behind the rise? 

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“Persistent inflation, high interest rates, restricted credit, and global instability continue to compound the economic challenges of struggling families and small businesses,” ABI Executive Director Amy Quackenboss stated.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest report on household finances underlines the pressure. Household debt hit $18.8 trillion by the end of Q4 2025. Credit card balances reached $1.28 trillion, with notable deterioration in mortgage and student loan arrears as well.

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Legislative Response and Outlook

Congress is weighing measures to ease access to bankruptcy protection. Legislation introduced recently by Senator Chuck Grassley in the Senate and Representative Ben Cline would permanently raise the small business reorganization threshold for Chapter 11 to $7.5 million. It would also lift the Chapter 13 debt ceiling to $2.75 million.

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However, relief may not come quickly. The IMF has projected that US inflation will not return to the Fed’s 2% target until early 2027, suggesting elevated borrowing costs will persist well into next year.

Meanwhile, the US national debt recently surpassed $39 trillion, adding further strain to an already stretched fiscal environment. Whether legislative action can keep pace with growing financial distress remains an open question heading into Q2.

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The post US Bankruptcy Filings Spike 14% in Q1 2026: What’s Driving the Surge appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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XRP slips to $1.31 after failed breakout as liquidity dries up

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XRP slips to $1.31 after failed breakout as liquidity dries up


Rejection at $1.35 and collapsing depth raise risk of sharper moves as positioning builds.

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Indonesian Authorities Used Crypto Data to Convict Criminals

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Indonesian Authorities Used Crypto Data to Convict Criminals

Onchain evidence was key to securing the conviction of three individuals for terrorism financing in Indonesia in 2024 and 2025, reflecting a clear shift in the way courts value onchain evidence.

“Indonesian courts have demonstrated that cryptocurrency evidence — wallet addresses, transaction histories, on-chain flows — is not only admissible but can anchor a terrorism financing prosecution,” TRM said in a statement Sunday.

TRM said terrorism financing networks have preferred cryptocurrency as a mechanism of choice to move money, as authorities and regulators have been slow to treat it with the same level of scrutiny as traditional fiat channels, but noted that this is now changing. 

Indonesian authorities traced one defendant sending more than $49,000 worth of USDt (USDT) across 15 transactions from a local exchange to a foreign platform, with the funds later routed to an ISIS-linked terrorism fundraising campaign in Syria, according to the blockchain firm. 

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Indonesia’s financial intelligence team and its counterterrorism police unit, Densus 88, carried out the analysis and presented the findings to Indonesian courts, which accepted the blockchain data as key evidence in each of the three cases.

Source: TRM Labs

Indonesia is not the only country in Southeast Asia using blockchain analytics to catch criminals, TRM said.

“Similar patterns are emerging across Southeast Asia, where governments are investing in blockchain intelligence capabilities and enhancing collaboration between public and private sectors to address illicit finance risks.”

TRM Labs said that Singapore and Malaysia’s financial intelligence units and law enforcement agencies are also building the technical capacity to trace cryptocurrency flows.

Related: Drift Protocol says $280M exploit took ‘months of deliberate preparation’ 

On April 1, Cambodian and Chinese officials captured Li Xiong, a leader of the Huione Group, an organization that served scam centers in Cambodia that carried out “pig butchering” frauds and other investment schemes to steal crypto from victims around the world. 

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Xiong was extradited to China, where he is set to face fraud and money-laundering charges. 

His extradition came three months after the arrest of Chen Zhi, the head of Prince Group, which operates Huione Group.

TRM reported in February that illicit entities received about $141 billion worth of stablecoins in 2025, marking a five-year high.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?

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