The U.S. government is formally reversing its previous stance on banning certain activities at prediction market firms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, with U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Mike Selig moving Wednesday to withdraw a proposed event-contracts rule from 2024 and scrapping an earlier advisory he said confused the industry.

In 2024, the derivatives regulator proposed a rule that would have banned contracts based on the outcome of political events, legally equating them with illicit contracts on war, terrorism and assassination and calling them “contrary to the public interest.” That rule never advanced to a final stage before President Donald Trump returned to the White House and appointed new CFTC leadership. The CFTC had allowed prediction markets based on political events to launch after losing a court fight over Kalshi’s intended offering that same year.

The recently confirmed chairman of the agency, Selig, has now cleared the decks of that and a minor advisory issued in September on certain contract markets.

“The 2024 event contracts proposal reflected the prior administration’s frolic into merit regulation with an outright prohibition on political contracts ahead of the 2024 presidential election,” Selig said in a statement. “The Commission is withdrawing that proposal and will advance a new rulemaking grounded in a rational and coherent interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act that promotes responsible innovation in our derivatives markets in line with Congressional intent.”

Selig’s action is unsurprising, following closely on the heels of his remarks last week that signaled it was coming. He said he’d “directed CFTC staff to move forward with drafting an event contracts rulemaking.”

The Trump administration’s embrace of the prediction markets has paved the way for increased interest from companies seeking to throw their hat into the sector, such as Coinbase, or the tangential pursuit of similar products from Cboe.

The September advisory Selig pulled back had been meant to caution platforms about litigation concerns, he said, but it had “inadvertently created confusion and uncertainty for our market participants.”

The CFTC is expected to become a central voice in digital assets oversight, in which the prediction markets have had an overlapping interest. Selig is working on a number of new initiatives, and the Congress is negotiating its crypto market structure bill that — among many other points — is meant to establish the CFTC as the rightful watchdog of crypto spot markets that don’t involve securities.

Read More: U.S. SEC, CFTC chiefs push united front on paving the way for crypto

Kyle Samani, co-founder of crypto investment firm Multicoin Capital, is stepping down from his role as managing director, he announced Wednesday in a post on X.

“It’s a bittersweet moment for me because my time at Multicoin has been some of the most meaningful and rewarding of my life,” Samani wrote. “After nearly a decade in crypto, I’m more confident than ever that crypto is going to fundamentally rewire the circuitry of finance.”

Samani said he’s taking time off and “exploring other areas of technology,” but made clear he’s not walking away from crypto entirely. “While I’ll be stepping away professionally from the industry, I will continue to make personal investments in the space,” he wrote.

He also pointed to the potential impact of U.S. crypto legislation in development, particularly the Clarity Act, a bill designed to provide legal definitions for crypto assets. “I believe the Clarity Act will unlock a tidal wave of new entrants and spur adoption unlike anything we’ve seen,” he wrote.

Samani did not say what his next role would be or when he might return to the industry. As of now, Multicoin has not named a replacement. Co-managing partners Tushar Jain and Brian Smith are currently running the firm’s day-to-day operations.

Founded in 2017, Multicoin quickly gained visibility for backing projects like Solana SOL$90.59 and HNT$0.8819 before they became widely known. It operates across both venture capital and liquid token markets, setting it apart from traditional VC firms.

Samani says he will remain as chairman at Solana treasury company Forward Industries (FWDI) and is requesting in-kind redemption in FWDI shares and warrants from the Multicoin Master Fund, rather than cash.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Bitwise Asset Management, said the market is experiencing a crypto winter.

According to his analysis, the crypto winter began in January 2025, but heavy institutional inflows “papered over that truth,” masking the depth of the downturn. The key question now is, how long will the winter last?

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Market Weakness Signals an Ongoing Crypto Winter

In a recent market commentary, Hougan rejected the idea that recent price weakness represents a temporary pullback. Instead, he described the current environment as a “full-blown crypto winter,” pointing to steep drawdowns across major assets.

He highlighted that Bitcoin (BTC) is now trading about 39% from its October 2025 all-time high. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) has fallen roughly 53%. Many altcoins have declined far more.

“This is not a ‘bull market correction’ or ‘a dip.’ It is a full-bore, 2022-like, Leonardo-DiCaprio-in-The-Revenant-style crypto winter—set into motion by factors ranging from excess leverage to widespread profit-taking by OGs,” Hougan noted.

Institutional demand, he said, played a key role in masking the downturn. Using data from the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index, Hougan highlighted a clear divide.

Assets with strong institutional support, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP (XRP), have posted relatively modest declines since January 2025. Tokens that gained ETF access in 2025, like Solana (SOL), Chainlink (LINK), and Litecoin (LTC), suffered deeper losses.

Nonetheless, assets without any institutional exposure fell between roughly 60% and 75%. According to him,

“The thing that separates the three groups is basically whether or not institutions had the ability to invest in them.”

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During this period, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT) accumulated more than 744,000 Bitcoin, worth an estimated $75 billion. Hougan argued that without this level of institutional support, Bitcoin’s losses would likely have been far greater.

“Retail crypto has been in a brutal winter since January 2025. Institutions just papered over that truth for certain assets for a while,” the executive remarked.

Hougan also addressed a question many market participants have raised: why do crypto prices continue to fall despite positive developments such as increased institutional adoption, regulatory progress, and broader acceptance by Wall Street?

His answer was straightforward. In the depths of a crypto winter, good news typically has little immediate impact on prices.

“Those of you who followed crypto during past winters—either 2018 or 2022—will remember that good news doesn’t matter in the depths of winter. Crypto winters don’t end in excitement; they end in exhaustion,” he added.

However, he suggested that while positive developments are often ignored during bear markets, they do not disappear. Instead, they accumulate as what he described as “potential energy,” which can fuel a recovery once sentiment improves.

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Hougan pointed to several factors that could help lift market sentiment, including stronger economic growth that triggers a risk-on rally, a positive surprise related to the Clarity Act, signs of sovereign adoption of Bitcoin, or simply the passage of time.

Looking at historical cycles, Hougan said crypto winters typically last around 13 months. If the current winter indeed began in January 2025, then it’s possible that the end may be near.

Bitcoin mining crossed a historic threshold in late 2025. According to a recent report from GoMining, the network entered the zetahash era, surpassing 1 zetahash per second of computing power.

But while hashrate surged to record levels, miner profitability moved in the opposite direction. The result is a mining industry that is larger, more industrialized — and more exposed to price risk than at any point this cycle.

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Hashrate Reaches Record Highs as Mining Scales Up

The report shows Bitcoin’s network sustained over 1 ZH/s on a seven-day average, marking a structural shift rather than a temporary spike.

This growth reflects aggressive hardware upgrades, new data centers, and expanding industrial operations. Mining is no longer dominated by marginal players. It now resembles energy infrastructure.

As a result, competition for block rewards has intensified sharply.

Revenue Per Miner Falls Despite Network Growth

While hashrate expanded, revenue per unit of compute fell into one of its tightest ranges on record.

The report highlights that miner earnings increasingly depend on Bitcoin’s price and difficulty alone. Other buffers have faded, including transaction fee spikes and the higher block subsidies that once softened margin pressure

This compression means miners now operate with thinner margins, even as they deploy more capital and power. 

According to GoMining, the impact was visible in the mempool. For the first time since April 2023, the Bitcoin mempool fully cleared multiple times in 2025. 

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It means the Bitcoin network was so quiet that transactions cleared immediately, even at the lowest possible fees. 

As a result, miners earned almost nothing from fees and had to rely almost entirely on Bitcoin’s price and block subsidy for revenue.

Transaction Fees Offer Little Relief After the Halving

Post-halving dynamics worsened the pressure.

With the block subsidy reduced to 3.125 BTC, transaction fees failed to offset lost revenue. The report notes that fees made up less than 1% of total block rewards for most of 2025.

As a result, miner economics became directly exposed to Bitcoin price swings, with fewer internal stabilizers.

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Hashprice Hits Lows as Margins Stay Under Pressure

The squeeze showed up clearly in hashprice — the daily revenue earned per unit of hashrate.

According to the report, hashprice fell to an all-time low near $35 per PH per day in November and remained weak into year-end. It finished the quarter near $38, well below historical averages.

This left little room for operational error.

Shutdown Prices Turn Price Levels Into Economic Triggers

These findings align closely with recent data on miner shutdown prices.

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At current difficulty and electricity costs near $0.08 per kWh, widely used S21-series miners approach breakeven between $69,000 and $74,000 per BTC. Below that range, many operations stop generating operational profit.

More efficient, high-end machines remain viable at much lower prices. But mid-tier miners face immediate pressure.

Why This Matters for Bitcoin Price Now

This does not create a price floor. Markets can trade below mining breakeven.

However, it creates a behavioral threshold. If Bitcoin stays below key shutdown levels, weaker miners may sell reserves, shut down equipment, or reduce exposure.

In a market already strained by tight liquidity, those actions can amplify volatility.

Bitcoin mining is stronger and more industrial than ever. But that scale comes with sensitivity. As hashrate grows and fees fade, price matters more, not less, for miner stability.

That makes levels like $70,000 economically meaningful — not because charts say so, but because the network’s cost structure does.

TLDR:

• NFT trading volumes collapsed from $2.9 billion in 2021 to just $23.8 million by early 2025 quarterly data. 
• Major platforms including Nifty Gateway, Foundation, and MakersPlace announced closures within days in January 2026. 
• Centralized storage systems left 27% of top NFT collections vulnerable to permanent loss after server shutdowns. 
• OpenSea recaptured 67% of Ethereum NFT volume by expanding into fungible tokens as competitors exited the market.

The digital art marketplace landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation as prominent NFT platforms cease operations.

Trading volumes collapsed from $2.9 billion in 2021 to $23.8 million by early 2025, representing a 93 percent decline.

Gemini’s Nifty Gateway, Foundation, and multiple other platforms announced closures or ownership transfers within days of each other in January 2026, marking the effective end of the venture-backed NFT marketplace ecosystem.

Wave of Platform Closures Reshapes Digital Art Infrastructure

Nifty Gateway announced its shutdown on January 24, 2026, with approximately 650,000 NFTs requiring withdrawal before the April 23 deadline.

Community outcry initially extended the original February 23 closure date. Three days later, Foundation’s creator transferred ownership to BlackDove, a digital art streaming company. The platform had generated $230 million in primary sales during its operational period.

MakersPlace shut down in January 2025 after facilitating the landmark $69.3 million Beeple sale through Christie’s in 2021.

Content manager Brady Evan Walker announced that “ongoing market challenges and funding difficulties have made it impossible to sustain operations while fulfilling our mission.”

KnownOrigin, acquired by eBay in 2022, wound down operations in July 2024. Async Art closed in October 2023 despite raising $2 million in seed funding.

Active traders declined from 529,101 in 2022 to 19,575 by 2025, according to DappRadar. Average art NFT prices fell from $2,044 in 2021 to $475 in 2023.

CEO Conlan Rios reflected that when Async Art launched, “the NFT world was smaller and simpler” with “a genuine sense of altruism all around.”

Christie’s eliminated its digital art department in September 2025 after none of its 11 auctions exceeded $400,000 in sales.

Technical Infrastructure Exposes Centralization Vulnerabilities

A 2024 Pinata analysis revealed that 27 percent of top NFT collections stored metadata on centralized servers. The report noted that some NFTs “simply no longer exist” as their “smart contracts point to metadata that is no longer accessible from the original centralized servers.”

Sam Spratt commented on Twitter that Nifty Gateway’s closure represented “a pure loss” and expressed “gratitude for what was given” before the platform’s ending.

XCOPY’s early work demonstrates the fragility of NFT storage systems. The London-based artist described how Ascribe “fell into the cryptoart platform graveyard” after the service closed.

“Death Wannabe,” released on July 17, 2018, had ten editions but only three remain accessible. Seven editions are locked in the original RareArt Labs contract while “Disaster Suit” survives in four editions but lost its metadata entirely.

Nifty Gateway responded to criticism by announcing metadata migration to Arweave for newer NFTs. Artist Bryan Brinkman acknowledged that “many of us knew the risks of minting on there” but noted the platform “still clung to too many centralized choices” despite contract improvements.

Collector G4SP4RD warned that collections from artists like Beeple and Spratt could become “broken with no possibility of recovery” if servers shut down.

OpenSea recaptured 67 percent of Ethereum NFT volume by late 2025 after expanding into fungible tokens. CEO Devin Finzer tweeted that the platform crossed $2.6 billion in trading volume with “over 90 percent from token trading.”

SuperRare announced on Twitter it was “not going anywhere” and continued operating. Art Basel Miami Beach launched Zero 10 in December, selling 65 percent of digital art works by mid-afternoon on opening day.

Michael Saylor has hinted that Strategy will soon make another Bitcoin purchase, pushing its holdings beyond 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

Saylor posted “Bigger Orange” on X, a phrase he has used in the past before announcing new Bitcoin buys. Strategy currently holds about 687,410 Bitcoin, which equals roughly 3% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins. The company has made more than 94 Bitcoin purchases since 2020, with an average buying price of around $75,000 per Bitcoin.

Last week alone, Strategy bought 13,627 BTC for about $1.25 billion, using a mix of debt, equity, and cash. With Bitcoin trading close to $95,000, Strategy’s unrealized gains have grown significantly. This large exposure has made the company one of the biggest corporate Bitcoin holders in the world, strengthening its image as a long-term Bitcoin-focused firm.

₿igger Orange. pic.twitter.com/HI47hMCnui

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) January 18, 2026

Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet Strengthens as MSTR Lags Holdings

However, Strategy’s stock price has not fully reflected its growing Bitcoin holdings yet. According to TradingView data, MSTR shares rose about 4% in the past week and are up over 12% year-to-date. The stock was trading near $174 at the time of reporting. Over the last five years, MSTR has gained more than 180%, showing strong long-term performance.

Investor confidence also improved after MSCI decided not to change its index rules, removing uncertainty around Strategy’s market position. Many investors now see MSTR as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin, meaning the stock often moves more sharply when Bitcoin rises or when Strategy announces new purchases.

Meanwhile, short-term Bitcoin market sentiment remains cautious. Analyst Ted Pillows noted tightening liquidity and heavy trading interest between $96,000 and $98,000. These price levels often attract strong activity and can slow price movement or trigger volatility.

Despite caution among retail traders, institutional Bitcoin futures activity is increasing, suggesting larger players are still positioning for future moves. Overall, corporate accumulation remains strong, but short-term Bitcoin price action may stay volatile.

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Tether has scaled back fundraising talks to about $5B after investors pushed back on a proposed $500B valuation.

Tether has reportedly scaled back its planned multibillion-dollar fundraising target after facing resistance from investors.

According to a report from the Financial Times on February 4, advisers for the stablecoin issuer are now examining the possibility of raising at least $5 billion, down from the $15 billion to $20 billion figure circulated during early talks in 2025.

Lower Target Follows Valuation Concerns

The original range, first reported by Bloomberg in September 2025, was linked to a valuation of roughly $500 billion, placing Tether among the world’s most valuable private companies. However, the number has reportedly proven difficult to justify for several prospective investors.

In comments cited by the FT, Paolo Ardoino, Tether’s chief executive, said the higher figure was never a firm target. According to the executive, the amount discussed was only the maximum the company would consider selling. “If we were selling zero, we would be very happy as well,” Ardoino said, noting that the firm is profitable and does not urgently need external capital.

Tether is the issuer of USDT, the world’s largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, with about $185 billion in circulation. The company has generated strong earnings from returns on reserves backing USDT, mainly U.S. Treasuries. Ardoino said Tether made around $10 billion in profit last year, a figure that has featured prominently in valuation discussions.

Despite that profitability, some investors have taken a cautious stance, with the FT reporting that concerns centered on how the $500 billion valuation was calculated and whether it reflects realistic growth expectations in the current market environment.

Nonetheless, fundraising talks are still in the early stages, and no decision has been made on the size or timing of any raise.

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Profitability, Reserves, and Lingering Skepticism

Tether’s capital plans have come against a backdrop of mixed sentiment around the stablecoin issuer. The firm has expanded beyond cash-like reserves in recent years, building large positions in Bitcoin and gold. Earlier in the year, Ardoino confirmed that the company bought about $779 million worth of Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2025, lifting its holdings to more than 96,000 BTC.

At the same time, scrutiny around transparency has not faded, especially considering that S&P Global Ratings assigned USDT its lowest score on the agency’s stablecoin stability scale in November 2025, citing gaps in disclosure and a higher share of assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and secured loans. Ardoino publicly criticized the rating, arguing that traditional frameworks fail to capture Tether’s business model.

The reduced fundraising target suggests Tether is adjusting to market feedback rather than pressing ahead with an aggressive valuation. Whether the company proceeds with a smaller raise or pauses altogether will likely depend on investor appetite and broader conditions in crypto markets over the coming months.

IREN Ltd., once known for mining Bitcoin, is undergoing a dramatic reinvention as an AI infrastructure provider—a transformation that will face a critical test when the company reports second-quarter earnings on Thursday.

Formerly Iris Energy, IREN has shifted away from crypto mining and into what it calls a “Neocloud” model, repurposing its stranded-energy Bitcoin sites into large-scale data centers designed to support artificial intelligence workloads.

A $9.7 billion partnership with Microsoft helped position IREN as a potential player in the race to supply next-generation compute capacity.

The ambition has not come cheap

Ahead of earnings, IREN shares have tumbled, falling nearly 19% intraday on Wednesday and down about 28% over the past five days, as investors worry that funding the company’s GPU-heavy cloud expansion could require dilutive equity issuance.

After a 314% rally over the past year, the pullback underscores growing skepticism about whether IREN can scale its AI cloud business without eroding shareholder value.

The upcoming earnings report represents a clear break from the company’s Bitcoin mining past, shifting attention to cloud execution, financing discipline, and competition with established players like Amazon and Oracle—making it a critical test of the company’s pivot.

IREN isn’t alone

Other companies have attempted comparable transformations—some successfully, others less so:

• Core Scientific – Transitioned from pure Bitcoin mining to offering high-performance computing and AI colocation services after emerging from bankruptcy, leveraging existing infrastructure to attract AI customers.
• Hut 8 – Expanded beyond crypto mining into HPC and data center services, pitching its energy assets as ideal for AI workloads.
• Northern Data – Repositioned itself as a European AI and cloud infrastructure provider, shifting investor focus from Bitcoin exposure to GPU-based compute capacity.
• Nvidia (earlier era) – While not a crypto miner, Nvidia successfully pivoted from gaming-focused GPUs to becoming the backbone of AI compute, showing how infrastructure players can redefine their identity through demand shifts.
• IBM – Moved from legacy hardware to cloud and AI services over the past decade, using partnerships and hybrid infrastructure to reinvent its growth narrative.

IREN now joins this list at a moment when AI infrastructure demand is booming—but capital markets patience is thinning. Whether it becomes a case study in smart reinvention or costly overreach may hinge on what it delivers this earnings season.